Guild Wars 2

So I opened 20 chests and got one scrap. I know this is not that big of a number to get accurate statistics but still , at this rate I would spend 18.000 gems in total for 1 ticket. Yes. 18K gems.
(What would roughly translate into 2.400 gold ).

People who have opened some more than I did, what are your expected droprates ?

If you just want the skin, exchange your gems to gold and buy it off the tp.

I was more asking about the viability of keys. Why would one even want to buy/farm them with these rates ? Or was it just bad luck.

Wanze.8410:

If you just want the skin, exchange your gems to gold and buy it off the tp.

The skins are only that cheap on TP thanks to key farmers. With the key farming nerf I expect to see significantly higher prices.

Minae Iss.7054:

So I opened 20 chests and got one scrap. I know this is not that big of a number to get accurate statistics but still , at this rate I would spend 18.000 gems in total for 1 ticket. Yes. 18K gems.
(What would roughly translate into 2.400 gold ).

People who have opened some more than I did, what are your expected droprates ?

I opened 3 in a row and got a scrap each time. RNG is RNG.

The expected drop rate on ticket scraps is a bit better than one per 5 chests, 21% or so. Getting only one from 20 chests is pretty unlucky, but not remarkably so.

Malediktus.9250:

With the key farming nerf I expect to see significantly higher prices.

oh gosh, what now? Why do ANet always have to do their best to nerf any possible source of in game income?

Minae Iss.7054:

I was more asking about the viability of keys. Why would one even want to buy/farm them with these rates ? Or was it just bad luck.

I think the ticket scrap is about 20%, a whole ticket also have a 1-2% drop rate.

you got pretty unlucky.

As for farming, it can be quite profitable if there are events for it. I think someone manage to make 10+ gold per hour when there is double drop rate events.

You can try search through the forum. I know someone opened a load of chest during the events, but I can’t find the post now.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/2dbbbe/1000_black_lion_keys/

Even prior to this, there were assumptions that the drop rate is 1/50 for tickets and about 1/3 -1/5 for scraps, which seems to be confirmed by the drops of this guy.

Edit: given a droprate of ~1/5, the chance of getting 1 or less scraps out of 20 boxes is 0.0691, or 1/14

The data I’ve collected from Redditors posting results for more than 50 keys used show that you get about 1.5 to 3 ticket equivalents for every 100 chests used (i.e. 30 scraps, 3 actual tickets, or any combination). (During double-chance week, it was 6.4-7.8, more than double what was posted at other times.)

(I did keep track of scraps vs tickets, but for the purposes of this post, I’m not sure the distinction is relevant.)

My own experience shows that a single chest can drop two scraps or even one scrap plus a whole ticket, so the variance is going to be very high, compared to what we might expect from a 3 tickets/100 chests drop rate. Thus, the difference between a good and a bad streak could appear extreme.

That also means that 20 chests isn’t nearly enough to see a pattern. I’m not at all surprised that someone got 3 scraps in a row or that the OP got only 1 ticket in 20. I would be surprised if someone showed that level of luck (good or bad) over 100 chests: 10 ticket-equivalents/100 chests would be abnormally high and 0.5 tix/100 would be abnormally low.

Nicron’s (aka Patron’s) drops (referenced by Garrisyl above) were during the double chance period and were about 6.2 ticket equivalents per 100 chests. So, all things being equal (which they probably aren’t), 3.1 tix/100 is probably closer to the actual drop rate.

It’s just your luck, I think.
The most it’s taken me to get 10 scraps is 80 chests.
I average a full ticket in about 30 – 40 chests usually, not counting when the chest drops me an already complete ticket.

Varrg.2704:

Malediktus.9250:

With the key farming nerf I expect to see significantly higher prices.

oh gosh, what now? Why do ANet always have to do their best to nerf any possible source of in game income?

It’s not a nerf in the tradtional sense. More of a casulty of a new system. A-net has said that they are in no way against key farming, nor were there measures in the 2 years so far to try and nerf or kill it.
It’s simply being reworked because of the level up rewards being reworked. Not because the farm it’s self needs a nerf.

Yeah I can agree that the scrap rate is usually about 1/3 chests. So about 30 chests per skin on average. Yet as with RNG, there is huge variation.

I think the 20%/1% for scraps and tickets are pretty spot on. You were just unlucky OP.

That doesn’t change the fact that if you buy keys to try to cash in on ticket skins is a waste of time. You get more gold from converting cash bought gems than using those gems to buy keys to get tickets and selling the skin. And it takes more gold to buy keys than buying the skin outright. That’s the whole reason key farming is popular.

the usually scrap rate is more closely 1/5. If you include there is a chance to get a whole tickets, 30 chest sounds about right.

Some of the results are from double events. That probably pushed to 1/3 like some people post here.

You also have a chance to get a whole ticket. That is quite huge since 1 ticket = 10 scraps.

If you open a huge sample size, you get close to the medium. Those that opened 500 chest usually share similar results.

laokoko.7403:

If you open a huge sample size, you get close to the medium. Those that opened 500 chest usually share similar results.

This seems to be correct. For “skins” dropping from 250+ opened, there is about a 10% variation from average, whereas for 50-100 opened, there’s nearly a 45% variance for the extremes of 50-100 chests.

Specifically, the published rates per 100 chests were:

• 250+ chests: 2.8, 3.0, 3.1†, 3.3†
• 50-100 opened: 1.5, 3.0, 3.2†, 3.9†

Results taken from other people’s published data over the last year or so. As in my earlier post, “ticket-equivalent” is 10 scraps or a single ticket found.
(† means that’s half the actual rate, since chests were opened during the double chance period.)(ordered from smallest to largest, not chronologically)

tl;dr is the same as before: your mileage will vary and you’re unlikely to see near-average results until you start tracking the results of 100s of chests.

@Laokoko:
I don’t have as much data as I’d like. Do you have any links still? I went scouring Reddit a month back and now have data from 8 posters, only two of whom opened more than 250. Thanks.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

laokoko.7403:

If you open a huge sample size, you get close to the medium. Those that opened 500 chest usually share similar results.

This seems to be correct. For “skins” dropping from 250+ opened, there is about a 10% variation from average, whereas for 50-100 opened, there’s nearly a 45% variance for the extremes of 50-100 chests.

Specifically, the published rates per 100 chests were:

• 250+ chests: 2.8, 3.0, 3.1†, 3.3†
• 50-100 opened: 1.5, 3.0, 3.2†, 3.9†

Results taken from other people’s published data over the last year or so. As in my earlier post, “ticket-equivalent” is 10 scraps or a single ticket found.
(† means that’s half the actual rate, since chests were opened during the double chance period.)(ordered from smallest to largest, not chronologically)

tl;dr is the same as before: your mileage will vary and you’re unlikely to see near-average results until you start tracking the results of 100s of chests.

---

@Laokoko:
I don’t have as much data as I’d like. Do you have any links still? I went scouring Reddit a month back and now have data from 8 posters, only two of whom opened more than 250. Thanks.

you can try searching youtube, many people post video about it.

There was also a reddit post of someone opening 1000 chest during the double drop rate event. final able to find it.

http://de.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/2dbbbe/1000_black_lion_keys/

Key farming is not worth it anyway. There’re much better ways to make gold and I’m not talking about flipping.

Ive done around 25-30 runs in the last week. Im new to farming it. From those runs I got 9 scraps and one whole ticket. Also made about 50g from minis that dropped. Feels like 1 ticket every 3-5 is about right though.

This week I opened six chests – 1 ticket and 4 scraps. I’m going out on a high, never farming keys ever again.

I find 1 scrap every 3 chest. Yesterday got the golden ticket one. I don’t think they lowered drop rate, just bad luck and can happen!

I honestly hope that with the key farming being removed (moved to higher level), that they increase the rewards offered in the chests.

I don’t mind spending a few gems occasionally to the RNG gods, but I refuse to empty my bank account just for the chance of a skin ticket.

Better yet just put an actual gem price on the skins so I don’t have to buy those chests in the first place.

Rule of thumb for Black Lion Chests:

Opening them in order to get a specific item is DUMB.
Opening them in order to have fun spinning the wheel is fine.

Here’s the compilation of data I searched. I think scrap rate is very close to 20%, you also have a chance to get a whole ticket which is roughly 1~2%.

http://de.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/2dbbbe/1000_black_lion_keys/
1000 chest (during double drop rate events).
422 scraps
20 black lion tickets

(42.2% scraps, 2% whole tickets)
assume (21.1% scraps, 1% whole tickets) without double drop rate events.
—————————————————————————————————————————————
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yuHr60Lpeo
OPENING 500 BLACKLION CHESTS! | Guild Wars 2 Spending Spree #009

(102 scrap 4 ticlet)
20.4% scrap 0.8% whole ticket
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
Guild Wars 2 Opening 250 Black Lion Chests
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbBE8DT9YIg

(47 scrap, 5 ticket back)
18.8% scrap, 2.5% ticket
——————————————————————————————————————————————-
Guild Wars 2: Opening 200 Black Lion Chests
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIRnqBwIwN0

first 50 (17scrap 1 whole)
2nd 50(16 scrap)
100 (25 ticket 2 scrap)

(58 scrap, 3 whole)
29% scrap, 1.5% whole
——————————————————————————————————————————————
Opening 100 Black lion chests!
(44 scrap, 3 ticket) double drop rate events

44% scrap, 3% whole ticket
assume (22% scrap, 1.5% ticket)
———————————————————————————————————————————————-
GW2 – Opening 100 Black Lion Chest – 6th Serie
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BXKPt_MzBo

23 scrap 0 ticket.

@laokoko.7403. Excellent. Thanks for these. As it turns out, I think I have the same links, but from Reddit. I’ll go back to double-check.

FYI to others: my data and laokoko’s don’t match up exactly: my posts combine scraps + tickets and just count skins; theirs separates out the two kinds. For example, I’d report the last two as 3.7 (half of 7.4) and 2.3 respectively; laokoko lists them as 44% + 3% and 23% respectively.

Thanks for all the responses and numbers, this is exactly what I wanted to know. Now lets see what the Feature Pack brings to farming them.