Guild Wars 2

I am a multi millionaire and gold capped over several characters in WoW. Most of my gold there was made from AH (Auction House) by following a simple tactic, buy low and sell high. But of course its always risky and you need to have a very good knowledge of in game economy and know what will go up in price or go down. For example, its always good to start stockpiling raw ore’s and herbs dirt cheap when a new raid patch or expansion is upcoming and then reap the profits.

From my Month and a half experience in guild wars 2 so far I have noticed that ANet introduces new stuff and small patches much faster then blizzard does so more patches means more possibilities and opportunities. However in GW2 trading post is global and not realm specific so its very hard or almost impossible to try controlling the economy.

Take dragon coffers for an example, the day Dragon bash patch went live coffers were selling above 10s per piece and I made quite a bit of gold in first 3-4 days from them and then they have gradually degraded in price that they are no longer worth the time farming. They are now floating at an average of 1s for a week now because of the major flood since they drop very frequently. However its gonna change I believe since dragon bash will soon come to an end, coffers will no longer drop, Rich coffers will disappear from the gem shop and the only option to obtain a jade weapon skin will be the already available coffers.

Considering it takes 1000 coffers or so on average to obtain a jade skin the supply will quickly run out on TP and the price will skyrocket. Of course you can’t expect to buy them for 1s on last day and then expect the price to be 10s the very next day, change will happen slowly. Give it a month or so, see what happened to Azurite Orbs, they were selling for 2silvers during the patch time and now they sell for anything between 90s and 1g.

There is only 1 risk in stocking these beauties up and that is if anet changes that coffers no longer drop a jade skin after the dragon bash time is over but chances of happening that are very low. I don’t think investing 40-50 and buying 5000 of these wil be a bad idea as long as you have the bank space and patience for them to gradually go up in price.

You should post this on the Black Lion Trading post form. Lots of of people there that know the economy very well and they always talk about this sort of thing.

Anet will not take away the Jade ticket drop chance from the coffers but I couldn’t tell you if their value will go up or down. Personally the Jade Skins are not that attractive so I don’t know how much people will want them after the event.

Also a tip, mentioning your real life wealth or total gold wealth will attract negative attention and it is not really relevant to your post, best leave it out.

Market manipulation post in 3….2…..1……

If you were so good at making gold in WoW, figuring out whether or not dragon coffers are a worthy investment should be a breeze for you. Market savvy doesn’t suddenly vanish when you change markets.

Quarktastic.1027:

If you were so good at making gold in WoW, figuring out whether or not dragon coffers are a worthy investment should be a breeze for you. Market savvy doesn’t suddenly vanish when you change markets.

Oh really? I am gonna bookmark this page then and I will be playing this game after a month (hopefully) so I can come back and quote you again. I have seen people paying as much as 50000g for a Glorious Chestplate in wow for transmog which looks totally ugly IMO and I don’t see any reason why new players or spoiled kids will not spend 100s of gold to obtain that jade skin which looks bad/good in “your” opinion.

There are two possibilities, either you have no idea or you are trying to sway people away with your comments in hopes of reducing the competition. I have dealt with your kinds (AH/TP junkies) and survived for over 5 years, however I am not here to argue and I am not gonna post anymore here until after dragon bash is over. I gave my opinion and what I think will happen, you agree with it or not its all up to you. You can’t make anything if you don’t risk anything. Do CoF p1 couple of days and be happy with it….

Pridedemon.3041:

Quarktastic.1027:

If you were so good at making gold in WoW, figuring out whether or not dragon coffers are a worthy investment should be a breeze for you. Market savvy doesn’t suddenly vanish when you change markets.

Oh really? I am gonna bookmark this page then and I will be playing this game after a month (hopefully) so I can come back and quote you again. I have seen people paying as much as 50000g for a Glorious Chestplate in wow for transmog which looks totally ugly IMO and I don’t see any reason why new players or spoiled kids will not spend 100s of gold to obtain that jade skin which looks bad/good in “your” opinion.

There are two possibilities, either you have no idea or you are trying to sway people away with your comments in hopes of reducing the competition. I have dealt with your kinds (AH/TP junkies) and survived for over 5 years, however I am not here to argue and I am not gonna post anymore here until after dragon bash is over. I gave my opinion and what I think will happen, you agree with it or not its all up to you. You can’t make anything if you don’t risk anything. Do CoF p1 couple of days and be happy with it….

You brought it on by opening with “look at how rich I was in WoW.” Not to mention, you just answered your own thread.

This will likely be more effective when better looking weapons come out. If this system had happened in F&F, for example…as it stands, I don’t think too many people like the Jade Skins. Green is a nice color, but a rare one to see on armor in my experience. If you strap a cool black/silver/blue or red type of weapon into this system, expect to get tons of money from the match players who want their whole toon in Scarlet or Midnight Fire/ice/Abyss Dyes.

Simple answer: Yes

I believe the dragon coffers will go up in price like the other even RNG “things” like wintersday gifts or haloween bags.
Wintersday fx went from 50copper during the event to now 3-7 silver.

The above are the only ones pre dragon coffers and they both went up big time. After the event they increase, then they drop a good ammount and then they steadily rise over the months.

Its not a day to day trade. But give it a few months and you COULD win big time.

People dont like jade skins?? What? I have heard nothing than good things about them. Yes some of them are bad but people in general really like them. Just look at the topics on the forum. Make no doubt, people will hunger after these skins in the future.

And Its the first time in GW2 history that there are wep skins in the lootable RNG coffers, so these could be much better than the wintersday/halloween boxes.

;This is ust my personal opinion. They could drop to 1c and never come back. Make your own decisions, this is not investment advice or pumping. Anything can happen as seen with many things in this game.

Haha, Jade Ticket speculation. I think it will depend how quickly ANet bring out another set of skins for us to obsess over. Goodness knows I’ve spent too much time and money on these skins, but the market is fickle. When a new set comes out people will just as likely forget about the Jade tickets … for some it’s not about the look alone. It’s the gambling, the chance, the fact that they’re rare … I realise these are the reasons you think they will go up in price once they no longer drop in the world, which I agree with to an extent. But only if there’s nothing out there to take their place.

CrossedHorse,
That logic I thought of too. But … How can you explain that haloween and wintersday RNG boxes increased so so much over time when they only contain… well… nothing. Wintersday has the ultra low chance of the unbreakable bell. But thats it. In the dragon coffers you have wep skins. And I think that makes them alot better than previous RNG boxes. I dont think that will change just because a new skin is released.

Pridedemon.3041:

Quarktastic.1027:

If you were so good at making gold in WoW, figuring out whether or not dragon coffers are a worthy investment should be a breeze for you. Market savvy doesn’t suddenly vanish when you change markets.

Oh really? I am gonna bookmark this page then and I will be playing this game after a month (hopefully) so I can come back and quote you again. I have seen people paying as much as 50000g for a Glorious Chestplate in wow for transmog which looks totally ugly IMO and I don’t see any reason why new players or spoiled kids will not spend 100s of gold to obtain that jade skin which looks bad/good in “your” opinion.

There are two possibilities, either you have no idea or you are trying to sway people away with your comments in hopes of reducing the competition. I have dealt with your kinds (AH/TP junkies) and survived for over 5 years, however I am not here to argue and I am not gonna post anymore here until after dragon bash is over. I gave my opinion and what I think will happen, you agree with it or not its all up to you. You can’t make anything if you don’t risk anything. Do CoF p1 couple of days and be happy with it….

His point seemed to go over your head. If you were clever enough to make money in WoW (since you bragged about it), shouldn’t you be clever enough to do the same here?

Link.6791:

People dont like jade skins?? What?

Luckily I don’t. Has saved me a whole lot of trouble from what I’ve seen of guildies obsessively trying to obtain tickets and failing. :P

Link.6791:

CrossedHorse,
That logic I thought of too. But … How can you explain that haloween and wintersday RNG boxes increased so so much over time when they only contain… well… nothing. Wintersday has the ultra low chance of the unbreakable bell. But thats it. In the dragon coffers you have wep skins. And I think that makes them alot better than previous RNG boxes. I dont think that will change just because a new skin is released.

Yeah, that’s why I only posted it as an alternative way things might go. I can’t say for sure – I don’t try to predict the market, only fall for it’s foibles (sigh). Based on personal experience, I already have a skin, so I guess my interest is simply the “challenge”, which I can easily transfer to another item. But if you haven’t got even one skin, I can see why you’d stay interested. However, I also never bothered spending on the boxes when they cost 10s each, but the moment they came down to 1s each, my brain went “holy bargain!” and I probably spent more than was reasonable on them, but would stop once they went up again.

Haha – that said, I’d still pay a fair amount for a chance at a fused weapon skin ticket … I missed those before and would love one.

Meh – like I said, the market (or us!) is fickle, lol.

Link.6791:

Simple answer: Yes

The above are the only ones pre dragon coffers and they both went up big time. After the event they increase, then they drop a good ammount and then they steadily rise over the months.

Its not a day to day trade. But give it a few months and you COULD win big time.

I disagree.

Waiting a few months is too long, especially when you don’t make a huge profit on each item. Opportunity costs are huge in here and investing all your gold in one item will make you miss out on other short-term opportunities.

You would have to invest a lot of gold in order for this to be worthwhile, and even then, coffers would be a buyer’s market.

There would be thousands of coffers hoarded by sellers, but how about the buyers? Jade skins aren’t exactly alluring and Arenanet seems to be willing to keep releasing new content and skins.

The demand for Jade skins could drop as low as the SAB skins.

tldr:
I would not invest in Coffers because
-profit opportunity is limited and long-term, so opportunity costs are relevant here
-price for coffers will largely be driven by demand, and since these are lacklustre skins, it will be limited
-Arenanet is constantly putting out new content and skins. Jade skins could be viewed as obsolete when Anenanet releases more alluring skins.

That, and the fact that buy offers for 5k coffers are normally filled within a minute or two. There’s so many of these around, the price is unlikely to rise significantly for a few months, while the demand will diminish as well due to the introduction of new flavor of the month skins. The supply is a millionfold of the SAB skins, as coffers drop from everything, and for characters of any level.

""I disagree.""

Thats ok, if everyone agreed on investment there would be no such thing as speculation and huge returns.

We all have our ways of gambling. I think based on previous similar items that the coffers will trade significantly higher than 1s in the medium/long term.

Lothirieth.3408:

His point seemed to go over your head. If you were clever enough to make money in WoW (since you bragged about it), shouldn’t you be clever enough to do the same here?

He is… that’s why he brought it up.

(He’s already bought the massive piles of coffers; by drawing attention to it in such a public place he’ll increase demand artificially leading to a faster return on investment… see – clever)

I hope everybody realizes that Dragon Bash is an annual festival and will be returning next year……..

Mada.5319:

I hope everybody realizes that Dragon Bash is an annual festival and will be returning next year……..

Well, judging from everything the developer says in the past, want to keep item prestige, limited edition etc etc. I doubt the skin will come back. The event might come back with new reward.

But judging from the crazy amount of new skins the developer push out each month. The skins become very dilluted. So the rest is hard to speculate. The SAB skin is a good example, hard to rise in prise when they release molten, scerlite, jade, and soon the achievement point skin.

The jetpack is another example. Soon after the TP is spamed with holographic dragon wings followed by new back item on the event next week.

And Hallowean is coming up. We can see if Anet bring back old skins.

The reality is make your own judgement. Many of the information people spread just so they can flip or buy items easier. Kind of like the stock market in the real world.

The SAB weps and jetpack wasnt it an RNG box and thats the huge diffrence. People like to gamble. Like mentioned even the wintersday presents RNG box that contains next to nothing increased ALOT in price. The only thing you could get from it was unbreakable bell (at a ultra low chance) and now, even with the similar usic “horn” and the upcomming flute the price is still high.

With the dragon coffers you have a complete collection of wep skins and many people like the dragon skins. So IMO dragon coffers have even better chances of higher price than wintersday. And wintersday went from 50c to 3-8s

JMO

If you were a multimillionare on WoW you wouldn’t be here asking questions like this.

Osi.3504:

If you were a multimillionare on WoW you wouldn’t be here asking questions like this.

I was also “rich” in WoW. It is easy to make gold in that game. GW2 is a different story. I’ve struggled to make gold in GW2 because very few things have any substantial value and markets shift seemingly on a whim sometimes while people spend days afterwards trying to figure out, “Why did X suddenly skyrocket/drop like a rock?” I never experienced that in WoW at all.

Point being, the two economies aren’t alike so it’s foolish to compare the two. Just because you’re successful in one doesn’t mean the same tactics will work in the other.

Lane.3410:

Osi.3504:

If you were a multimillionare on WoW you wouldn’t be here asking questions like this.

I was also “rich” in WoW. It is easy to make gold in that game. GW2 is a different story. I’ve struggled to make gold in GW2 because very few things have any substantial value and markets shift seemingly on a whim sometimes while people spend days afterwards trying to figure out, “Why did X suddenly skyrocket/drop like a rock?” I never experienced that in WoW at all.

Point being, the two economies aren’t alike so it’s foolish to compare the two. Just because you’re successful in one doesn’t mean the same tactics will work in the other.

Not foolish at all, if you have the brains to flip items with known demand on WoW then you can do it on Guild Wars 2 as well. Especially with that spidy site telling you profit margins and showing you graphs of how stable items are not that I ever use them.

There are lots of COMMON SENSE items in Guild Wars, for starters… items that can be thrown into the MF for precursors, 75-80 rares/70-80 exotics, typically they have 3-10 silver profit margins or better, especially the high demanded precursors like dagger, greatsword and staff. Figuring that out is just as much as figuring out what gems are more popular and have a higher demand(faster to sell/flip) on WoW.

The problem with WoW was all the inflation and hardly any gold sinks. Every xpac quest rewards doubled etc. meaning all your hard work would be made twice as easy the next expansion. While I never merchanted gold on WoW because I seen no point in it besides a complete waste of time. On GW2 this game is about cosmetics and has lots of tradable discontinued items. The markets are truly very similar and with every release comes more items to flip.

If you can merchant on WoW, you shouldn’t be asking questions on here about how to merchant, you shouldn’t be on here trying to merchant the same item with 5,000 other people, then it gets overmerchanted, over-undercut and creates a collapse due to impatient people. OBVIOUSLY Dragon Coffers supply is absurdly high, but as all discontinued content/items, they will rise and rise primarily because of the Jade Tickets, is it worth investing 4 gold a stack and soaking up lots of space and possibly having to wait at least a year+ before it’s worth a profit? Probably not short term. Long term you can’t ever go wrong. So what’s to ask? What you should already know?

Edit: @lane, not sure which items you are talking about that suddenly crash, I have seen this as one of the most stable markets out there. When new game changes come out and “materials” become cheaper, then typically items drop. Example, when molten lodestones were 70s each, Berserker Tonics were roughly 60g in materials, now that they are 50s each, they are more like 55g causing them to drop abit. Why would they be cheaper than the mat list? Too many were crafted, not enough legit owners, and lots of people undercutting.

While the Coffers will go up in value, I don’t anticipate it being a large increase. There is a very large supply, and as soon as the next skin is available (probably 1 month or so) the demand will dry up and only the hardcore collectors will still be looking for the weapon skins.

Considering the volume of coffers needed to make a decent profit and the low profit point, I’d advise not holding on to more than 2-3 stacks.

mtpelion.4562:

While the Coffers will go up in value, I don’t anticipate it being a large increase. There is a very large supply, and as soon as the next skin is available (probably 1 month or so) the demand will dry up and only the hardcore collectors will still be looking for the weapon skins.

Considering the volume of coffers needed to make a decent profit and the low profit point, I’d advise not holding on to more than 2-3 stacks.

That sounds good and all. But thats just not how previous similar even worse items have behaved in the past.

Once again, look at wintersday RNG boxes. You could only get the bell from it. However the price of the RNG boxes went up 6-16x what they where trading for during the event.

I recall that the supply on the wintersday boxes was much lower though.

According to statistic sites the wintersday presents was supplied abou 1/3 to half that of the dragon coffers. But the demand for dragon coffers and the potential future demand is many many times higher than that of wintersday.

Everyone for their own. I am in the opinion coffers may be a good investment. But we will only know the answer in a few months

I’ve always stuck with the principle that temporary content is very rarely a bad investment. Still, you can’t pick everything. The question is more specifically: how good is the Dragon Coffer as an investment relative to other temporary items?

For example, after the Halloween event, I could’ve told you that Candy Corn would eventually increase in price. It could be bought for 2c a piece, and now it’s 10, a 5x increase! But it’s a terrible, terrible investment. You could’ve flooded your entire mule’s inventory with it, and not made a significant amount of gold.

It’s part of the same reason i’m skeptical of coffers. I’d rate the unit profit ceiling at ~4x, or 1s → 4s, and it costs 1 slot to store ~2.5g of coffers. It would take 50 slots to store 125g. In this hypothetical scenario, profit cap based on my estimate is ~375g (-15%) , in exchange for 50 slots @ ~several months storage, minimum.

Meh. Not the best choice, though not the worst thing you could do, and again these are just crude assessments. If nothing else i’ll reiterate the fact that this is relatively safe. In my opinion there are just better ways to store X amount of gold for the same profit ceiling, and far less slot utilization.

Hope this helps.

LFk, I agree on your points. But many people dont even have 100g to invest. So the slot space is not really a problem for many.

If the Jade Weapon ticket were a guaranteed drop, I’d say you’d make your money for sure, but since it’s only buying someone a small chance … well, like I said before, the moment a new skin is available to gamble on, I think people will move on pretty quickly.

LFk.1408:

I’ve always stuck with the principle that temporary content is very rarely a bad investment. Still, you can’t pick everything. The question is more specifically: how good is the Dragon Coffer as an investment relative to other temporary items?

For example, after the Halloween event, I could’ve told you that Candy Corn would eventually increase in price. It could be bought for 2c a piece, and now it’s 10, a 5x increase! But it’s a terrible, terrible investment. You could’ve flooded your entire mule’s inventory with it, and not made a significant amount of gold.

It’s part of the same reason i’m skeptical of coffers. I’d rate the unit profit ceiling at ~4x, or 1s -> 4s, and it costs 1 slot to store ~2.5g of coffers. It would take 50 slots to store 125g. In this hypothetical scenario, profit cap based on my estimate is ~375g (-15%) , in exchange for 50 slots @ ~several months storage, minimum.

Meh. Not the best choice, though not the worst thing you could do, and again these are just crude assessments. If nothing else i’ll reiterate the fact that this is relatively safe. In my opinion there are just better ways to store X amount of gold for the same profit ceiling, and far less slot utilization.

Hope this helps.

Bank space is only a minor issue. The more pressing concern is tying up your invested gold in a commodity that would take awhile to increase high enough to profit.

I have enough gold on hand to throw 200g at coffers and still have enough left to invest in other opportunities.

I wouldn’t suggest in investing in coffers for players who are new or for those who simply can’t afford or risk to invest a lot of gold.

CrossedHorse.4261:

If the Jade Weapon ticket were a guaranteed drop, I’d say you’d make your money for sure, but since it’s only buying someone a small chance … well, like I said before, the moment a new skin is available to gamble on, I think people will move on pretty quickly.

I say the exact opposite.
Its because there is a small chance to get them that the demand will be high. Been that with every RNG box so far in game. Why would that change now with an even better RNG box?

Vol.5241:

LFk.1408:

I’ve always stuck with the principle that temporary content is very rarely a bad investment. Still, you can’t pick everything. The question is more specifically: how good is the Dragon Coffer as an investment relative to other temporary items?

For example, after the Halloween event, I could’ve told you that Candy Corn would eventually increase in price. It could be bought for 2c a piece, and now it’s 10, a 5x increase! But it’s a terrible, terrible investment. You could’ve flooded your entire mule’s inventory with it, and not made a significant amount of gold.

It’s part of the same reason i’m skeptical of coffers. I’d rate the unit profit ceiling at ~4x, or 1s -> 4s, and it costs 1 slot to store ~2.5g of coffers. It would take 50 slots to store 125g. In this hypothetical scenario, profit cap based on my estimate is ~375g (-15%) , in exchange for 50 slots @ ~several months storage, minimum.

Meh. Not the best choice, though not the worst thing you could do, and again these are just crude assessments. If nothing else i’ll reiterate the fact that this is relatively safe. In my opinion there are just better ways to store X amount of gold for the same profit ceiling, and far less slot utilization.

Hope this helps.

Bank space is only a minor issue. The more pressing concern is tying up your invested gold in a commodity that would take awhile to increase high enough to profit.

I have enough gold on hand to throw 200g at coffers and still have enough left to invest in other opportunities.

I wouldn’t suggest in investing in coffers for players who are new or for those who simply can’t afford or risk to invest a lot of gold.

That’s a good point. I’ve got no capital tied up in coffers, my entire inventory consists of coffers I’ve gotten while farming so really the only factor for me is lost opportunity on inventory space. I’ll revise my suggestion as follows:

Dragon Coffers are profitable, but the profit volume is low. If you don’t have the capital to be moving more valuable product they are a safe money maker (since they can currently be acquired for free in large quantities) in the interim. I recommend holding onto a few stacks (as I previously suggested) as they are a safe bet, but if you need space for more profitable inventory don’t be afraid to liquidate.

nothing I love more than deciding to invest in something, then a day later seeing that someone posted that they think it might be a good idea to invest in that thing, then notice that the price of that thing has gone up 24% since I purchased 100g worth of it.
keep going up!

Vol.5241:

Bank space is only a minor issue. The more pressing concern is tying up your invested gold in a commodity that would take awhile to increase high enough to profit.

I have enough gold on hand to throw 200g at coffers and still have enough left to invest in other opportunities.

I wouldn’t suggest in investing in coffers for players who are new or for those who simply can’t afford or risk to invest a lot of gold.

I gathered from the background that OP is a trader. Space is always an issue, though, trader or not. I presume any given player would only buy as much as they need. Aside from the base bank tabs (which is very little storage at all), each unit of space costs capital when you need more – from gems to unlock inventory and bank tabs, or gold for bank guild vaults – which is something you should consider at all times. Space isn’t free.

Of course the gold volume is more relevant, but temporary items are not really for the active trader, at least in my eyes. Aside from what you see at the end of the event, there’s otherwise little volatility.

The trend for every sellable event item so far has been the same. Steady decline until you see that spike at the end of the event (when procrastinators are furiously trying to get a few temporary items to hold onto) and then the dip afterward when that collapses. Despite how frequently this trend occurs, it seems to happen at the end of every single event, so I wouldn’t expect any different.

Be warned, though, even though this sounds like a surefire way to double your money, I’ve always been cautious about playing this pattern. The first time it changes, you might get stuck holding the empty bag.

Dragon Coffers are going to eventually increase in price, given the claim ticket remains in them, but this is certainly going to take months. If you want to invest in this, be prepared to have the sum tied up for a long time. It’s possible you might be able to unload on a spike toward the end of the event, if we get people who never got the Jade ticket trying to grab one before it’s too late. It’s no different than most other temporary items, but I think there are better options out there.

mtpelion.4562:

I’ve got no capital tied up in coffers, my entire inventory consists of coffers I’ve gotten while farming so really the only factor for me is lost opportunity on inventory space.

Just a minor correction :P

If you have coffers, you have capital tied up in coffers. Just because you didn’t buy them doesn’t actually change their status. They are equivalent to money, and vice versa.

I like to point this out whenever I can because I too often hear players consider parts of a crafted item “free” because they gathered the mats themselves. This is a very bad way to perceive your cash flow, sometimes blinds you to more optimal ways of managing your money.

Osi.3504:

If you can merchant on WoW, you shouldn’t be asking questions on here about how to merchant, you shouldn’t be on here trying to merchant the same item with 5,000 other people, then it gets overmerchanted, over-undercut and creates a collapse due to impatient people. OBVIOUSLY Dragon Coffers supply is absurdly high, but as all discontinued content/items, they will rise and rise primarily because of the Jade Tickets, is it worth investing 4 gold a stack and soaking up lots of space and possibly having to wait at least a year+ before it’s worth a profit? Probably not short term. Long term you can’t ever go wrong. So what’s to ask? What you should already know?

For the “long term” it seems like there could be another problem. If we take a look another RNG box, the Black Lion Chest. They have been the same item that has been dropping since launch but their contents have changed from time to time.

It is possible that the coffers will return as the same item(so they would stack with this year’s coffers) next year but opening them will give next year’s item. That could put a limit on how long you can hold on to these sort of things.

Khisanth.2948:

It is possible that the coffers will return as the same item(so they would stack with this year’s coffers) next year but opening them will give next year’s item. That could put a limit on how long you can hold on to these sort of things.

Knowing ANet, a new year’s rewards would result in a new box entirely. That’s how they did every single year’s lunar fortunes in GW1, as well as everything else along those lines.

Khisanth.2948:

Osi.3504:

If you can merchant on WoW, you shouldn’t be asking questions on here about how to merchant, you shouldn’t be on here trying to merchant the same item with 5,000 other people, then it gets overmerchanted, over-undercut and creates a collapse due to impatient people. OBVIOUSLY Dragon Coffers supply is absurdly high, but as all discontinued content/items, they will rise and rise primarily because of the Jade Tickets, is it worth investing 4 gold a stack and soaking up lots of space and possibly having to wait at least a year+ before it’s worth a profit? Probably not short term. Long term you can’t ever go wrong. So what’s to ask? What you should already know?

For the “long term” it seems like there could be another problem. If we take a look another RNG box, the Black Lion Chest. They have been the same item that has been dropping since launch but their contents have changed from time to time.

It is possible that the coffers will return as the same item(so they would stack with this year’s coffers) next year but opening them will give next year’s item. That could put a limit on how long you can hold on to these sort of things.

I would only agree because the Dragon Festival could be considered a non-living story since the event was “crashed” by Sky Pirates, but according to achievement list icons, Dragon Bash was a living story which is discontinued content. We’ll have to see, if it’s like Trick or Treat bags, you can still buy them like 1 silver each and have a chance to get an endless Halloween tonic(that’s how all the tradable versions exist).

What value do the dragon coffers offer the consumer? The chance to get a jade weapon skin. The dragon coffers therefore have value, and will always have value post-event. People saying that the price will likely fall are likely wrong. Once the event ends, there will be no NEW dragon coffers entering the world. Eventually supply will dry up, and if anyone has taken a basic economics course, they know that when supply decreases, the equilibrium price rises and sometimes substantially.

Scenario 1
The price will most likely rise, but does this make it a good investment? Not necessarily. Lets say you invest 1 gold in these coffers (which I have translated to be $100,000 for calculations sake) and over the next two months the price of coffers triples. You then sell it for 3 gold ($300,000). Each month you realize a return of approximately 73%. Not bad… if this were real life.

Scenario 2
I play the trading post each day and my returns are roughly 15-25% returns (and I think that is low as I am still learning the economy). Now lets say that instead of investing in dragon coffers, you flip other items and make a conservative 15% each day. By the end of WEEK ONE you would have more than doubled your money. By the end of the two months, you would have made $438,399,875 or 43,839 gold. This translates to a 6,521% return PER MONTH.

It’s not a matter of will the price rise, its a matter of is it worth the investment. Because it is easy enough to make a modest 15% each day flipping items on the TP, I’d say it’s definitely not worth the investment. You will continue to be poor on Guild Wars.

One person mentioned that he spends his money a lot (I think?). Dragon coffers would be great for your situation as it will tie up your money so you can’t spend it

I’m not a serious TP player by any means. However, I am keeping a stack of Dragon Coffers which I got just through normal play for a few months with an eye to selling it if the price returns to the early days of Dragon Bash (around 5s+ each).

Brandonhallnc.3256:

Scenario 2
I play the trading post each day and my returns are roughly 15-25% returns (and I think that is low as I am still learning the economy). Now lets say that instead of investing in dragon coffers, you flip other items and make a conservative 15% each day. By the end of WEEK ONE you would have more than doubled your money. By the end of the two months, you would have made $438,399,875 or 43,839 gold. This translates to a 6,521% return PER MONTH.

This is exactly like the newcommers to the stocktrading market expecting to be able to make 5% per day by daytrading and start calculating ridiculous numbers.

Like in the real market there is the trading fee’s. If you make 65x your money back every months you will soon own all the gold in the game.
The niche market you can get “15-25% return” per day dont have anywhere near enough flow for you to be able to do it with any meaningful ammounts of gold. Of course there will be temporally things like new event items, but even those cannot return 15-25% per day in any meaningful ammount.

And you say you return 15-25% per day “ONLY” because youre new? wow.. I must be really really behind with the economy. But… Ok… Since you like ridicolous calcalutions lets go. I assume you will soon be able to make 25% per day. (no fee’s incl)

You start with 1 gold.
After 1 month you have 65 gold.
After 2 months you will have 4225
After 3 months you will have 274625

After just 4 months you will have more than 17 million gold !! And its so easy! Cause you only have to make 25% per day af your gold.

My point being, flipping dosent work with any meaningful ammount because of the trading volume in the game. Noone can return 25% per day for any long period on any worthwhile ammount of gold.

Dont get me wrong. I also have things that gives me 25%+ and done it for months. BUT, its only a small income cause of the gold flow in the game and cant compare to the gold you can make buying the right thing at the right time.

And dont forget all the work. If you invest, you just buy, sit back and relax. If you flip youre constantly in the risk of being undercut and your money will get frozen or you will take a loss getting out.

Some of the people I know that made the most gold in the game have bought things , kept them for a month and sold.
And Of course you can get lucky with the TP in the first hour of a new event.

I think The dragon coffers offer very good value with very low risk.
GL to all investors out there

All these people saying you can make 15% off always and end up with 40,000 gold after 2 months or whatever are full of crap. Markets change drastically and the markets that very stable or have lots of trades of the same item being done typically have small margins.

Example, one item I merchanted last week I flipped 12 for 35 gold profit margin within 6 hours, the next day about 7 or 8 of them for 20-25g profit. Today that same item has about 5 gold profit margin or LESS and you are lucky to sell one a day. Markets change DRASTICALLY, you have to adjust with it and find new items and there is only so many items out there to merchant right now so you can’t keep using more gold you have to keep multiplying what you make, you need to invest at some point. There is no 15% profit on every penny you put into the trading post formula and 40,000 gold being made in 2 months is by far off. You have lucky days, and you have bad days and you still won’t have 40,000 gold after 2 months and if you think you’ll make 15% off that 40,000 gold with the current in-game items, you will be no lifing the trading post and putting auctions in 20 hours a day.

Lets be realistic please.

It is extremely easy to make a 15% return each day by flipping items on the trading post. And I never said one individual item gives me that 15% return. I have a portfolio of 20-30 items at any given time. If you focus on items with high liquidity (i.e. crafting items) then you drastically reduce your systematic risk so you won’t be caught with your pants down when the market tanks.

And yeah I do think 15% return per day is low. For those of you doubting that, if you started with 1g, you would only have to make 15 silver. If you can’t do that in one day, quit posting on these forums as you probably don’t have valuable input to share.

And yes you could theoretically make 40,000g after two months on the low end. It’s called compounding returns. 15% per day and after two months you will be sitting on a huge amount of gold. Is that realistic? No, and I never said it was. It was simply a scenario to show how speculating is generally a bad idea. People use gold to buy items with, craft, etc. People also get bored of trading day in day out, at least I do. Not to mention the scalability issues you would eventually run in to. But if you continuously made a 15% per day return for 2 months, that’s how much gold you have. It isn’t my opinion, it’s a statistical fact.

If you want to compare this market to the stock market, fine. Speculators in the stock market generally wait YEARS before they see any returns. Most of them don’t see a return but rather get crushed. And in real life they have a hell of a lot more to lose. The stock market is also highly regulated. The Black Lion TP is hardly regulated, the only regulations being a 15% selling fee (10% tax plus 5% listing). This leaves an ample amount of arbitrage opportunities to exploit.

And if you read my post, without focusing on one paragraph or one single line … cough Osi… then you would have read that I agree the price of dragon coffers will go up. I just believe the opportunity cost of that investment is too large if you are serious about making money.

I think I understand what you were saying. How would you continue to make a 15% daily return when you have for example 5,000 gold or even 1,000 gold. At that point you wouldn’t really be able to play the TP because of the scalability issues you would encounter, but who would really care as you would be rich beyond your means? I was simply trying to provide an example of an opportunity cost of a speculative investment.

I’ll try to explain. Warren buffet says he can “guarantee” 50% annual investment return if he “only” have 1 million dollar. But the reality is he only have 20% yearly return for his company.

It is easy to get 15-25% return if you only have small capital. But if you meant to tell me you still get 15-25% return with 10,000+ capital, it is highly unlikely.

Finding 20-30 items with 15% return is possible. But finding like 1000 item with that kind of return isn’t easy. There isn’t even that many items.

…sigh…

Did you even read my post? I stated at least twice that you would run into scalability issues. So you are essentially agreeing with me while trying to disagree with me.

it don’t help your post are edited 2 hours ago and my post is post 2 hours ago.

Admitally, I tend to read between the line. But I think most people do. No one have time to read essay on forum. That’s why I try to keep my post short and condense.

I can only make 25-35% profit on a very limited number of items that meet my strict cost limits. Somedays it’s 30g worth of raw materials, somedays it’s 3g worth but as others pointed out not scalable to infinity.

No. Totally not worth it. You should sell them asap before you loose all your money ^^ Preferable at under 1s please?

i could have sold 100 coffers for 96 silver yesterday. I chose not to and then i have opened all of them.
Found 2 dragon minis, 1 yellow equipment, 1 merchant consumable, 1 repair kit, 3 tonics, 3 potions and a dozen food lvl 80 and lots of candy.

I dont know if all these items togheter worth more than 96 silver but i think so

Coffers will always give you candy. It’s just there’s a chance it can give you a 2nd item like a ticket, mini, food, fireworks, etc. The chance is much higher on the paid with gem chests both for the 2nd item and for the more desirable of those items.

I opened 100 last night and got 3 minis a bunch of random food, some fireworks and 2 tonics.