Guild Wars 2

Surferboy.1649:

well Ursan, why are there always offers for precursors who differ just by 1 silver or less. If these where different people, there would probably be a fight between these. But the offers stay this way for many days.
That’s why I think these offers are of goldsellers.

I guess you’ve forgotten about the non-refundable listing fee? At precursor prices, that’s not an amount to sneeze at. I for one wouldn’t try to conduct a price war on a 500g precursor when each re-list costs 25g.

Clearly the answer to your last question is yes. Just get over it or start looking for another game. Make sure you race to the end of your new game asap so you can get a fair shake at the endgame.

Also, I was told there’s currently an exploit allowing you to not pay a listing fee. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but I saw something on the forums about it.

oh, i’m speaking about the buying offers, they don’t cost money. In you’re case, you’d be right of course.

SteepledHat.1345:

That’s it guys. The requirements aren’t unreasonable you’re just doing it wrong. Go grind CoF until you have your 500+ gold. Other people can do it so can you.

There is no problem here.

Yea, so why don’t you? Because you don’t find it fun? That’s great, don’t do it. Do what you consider “fun” in this game, because I assure you, not having that Legendary isn’t preventing you from doing what you think is “fun.”

Surferboy.1649:

well Ursan, why are there always offers for precursors who differ just by 1 silver or less. If these where different people, there would probably be a fight between these. But the offers stay this way for many days.
That’s why I think these offers are of goldsellers.

I’m not sure if you’re serious or not. The buy offers are changing constantly. Some very quick research would show you that your statement is incorrect.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29169

Surferboy.1649:

And is grinding really what Anet wants of us? Farming all day and night or is it to achieve a legendary weapon while having fun?

Yes. Anet fully endorses grinding for rare cosmetic items. This was their mantra in GW1, and the same in GW2.

Again, do what you think is “fun,” because not having that Legendary isn’t preventing you from doing it.

John Smith.4610:

Ursan is correct, there are many, many players who have earned enough money to purchase or create a precursor outside of the TP.

No, the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers.

While gold sellers don’t control the precursor market, isn’t it possible that the influence it greatly and attempt to manipulate the market to force prices to an artificially high point?

Surferboy.1649:

oh, i’m speaking about the buying offers, they don’t cost money. In you’re case, you’d be right of course.

Then your rationale is still incredibly flawed. You can look at buy orders for any item, and find a plethora of orders that differ by not only 1 silver, but 1 copper, and which do not get changed. I seriously doubt that gold sellers have a vested interest in the shallot market, though.

Lazy players, people who are offline, etc. versus gold sellers. Why fabricate conspiracies when laziness is a far more probable solution.

well, offers for an ecto that differ by 1 copper is a big difference, because they are sold every second.
My statements are just based on experience with The Lover, because that’s the one I need to finish my legendary. In fact, I don’t care whether they control it or not, what I care about is, what Anets plan is. Do they see a problem in the current prices, will there be a change in the near future or will nothing change for the next few months?
In my view, all 4 parts of the precursor should be equally hard, BUT that’s only my view^^

Surferboy.1649:

well, offers for an ecto that differ by 1 copper is a big difference, because they are sold every second.

Who said anything about ecto? Look at buy orders for virtually any item, be it crafting components, gear dropped as loot, trash items, etc. There’s no shortage of out-of-date buy orders that never get changed.

Even if you apply your logic of “difference of 1s or less in buy orders not changed for days indicates gold seller” to the comparatively limited section of the market you’ve just outlined – items which don’t buy/sell on a several-per-second basis – then you’re implying that gold sellers are trying to control not just the precursor market, but markets for 5c salvage items, markets for cooking components which can no longer be sold, and just about every market in the game.

I’m still confused as why buy orders differing by 1s means gold sellers….

Someone help me with the logic here. Are you saying that if it was players, they would constantly outbid each other?

That’s not true. Look at an auction house. You get to a point where people will just stop bidding higher, because they reached their limit. You see the same here. Yea, you can bid 2s more, but you hit your limit, you just refuge to go higher.

Very normal.

lol, no, that doesn’t make any sense. Gold sellers concentrate on rare things, cause these things are controllable. Also if someone bets 1 copper more for something which drops often, you don’t care, cause you get what you want some seconds later.
But if you wait for something which drops once every few days, you probably rise your own bet.

@Ursan, if 2 offers which differ 1 copper arise almost at the same time, then they are probably from the same person. Now tell me, why should someone buy 2 shortbows?
Will he equip both? Yeah, that makes sense.
If you can explain me, why someone else than a gold seller should do that, then pls go ahead.

Surferboy.1649:

@Ursan, if 2 offers which differ 1 copper arise almost at the same time, then they are probably from the same person.

False. I seriously marvel at how you make this leap in logic.

1. If it’s the same person, why would you outbid yourself by 1 copper?
2. It can be easily someone who really wants that precursor and tracks the item regularly. Sees an offer higher than his, so he cancels his old bid and puts a new bid, 1 copper higher.
3. Or, with a population of 3 million, it’s very possible to conceive that a person put up a buy order, and some random guy a few minutes later decides to put in a buy order, this one 1c higher.

Surferboy.1649:

Now tell me, why should someone buy 2 shortbows?
Will he equip both? Yeah, that makes sense.
If you can explain me, why someone else than a gold seller should do that, then pls go ahead.

Your assumption in your first post is false. Please stop making assumptions and basing your arguments on them.

I used to laugh at the guys that race through content. This situation is why the do that. I’ll remember it in the future.

Surferboy.1649:

@Ursan, if 2 offers which differ 1 copper arise almost at the same time, then they are probably from the same person. Now tell me, why should someone buy 2 shortbows?
Will he equip both? Yeah, that makes sense.
If you can explain me, why someone else than a gold seller should do that, then pls go ahead.

I’m not Ursan, but I feel like tacking this anyway, because it’s easy. Heck, I’ll even allow your gigantic assumption that posts made at the same time must be the same person, and operate under that.

1) Could be building two legendaries at once. I’m effectively doing that with a guildmate now – we both are focusing on different aspects of the non-soulbound components of the Flameseeker Prophecies, and working together to build two at once. Therefore:

1a) A single player might want to make two of the same legendary in order to sell the spare.

1b) Perhaps (you use the example of a bow) this player has both a thief and a ranger, and wants the Dreamer on both.

2) You don’t need to be a gold seller to try to make a profit off of the precursor market. John Smith confirmed earlier in this thread that players have raised the kind of money necessary to buy legendaries without daytrading. I’ll take him at his word on that.

I observe The Lover since 2 months I know what I am talking about.
The arise at the same time and they get dropped at the same time.
No other offer is dropped when they arise.
And if you don’t believe me, there a some threads with evidence already existing, which proof that precursors prices are controlled by a few rich people. Well maybe not all of them are gold sellers, but that doesn’t make any difference to the problems.

Surferboy.1649:

I observe The Lover since 2 months I know what I am talking about.
The arise at the same time and they get dropped at the same time.
No other offer is dropped when they arise.
And if you don’t believe me, there a some threads with evidence already existing, which proof that precursors prices are controlled by a few rich people. Well maybe not all of them are gold sellers, but that doesn’t make any difference to the problems.

That doesn’t address the logical inconsistency of one player outbidding himself by 1c. It would make vastly more sense to just post 2 buy orders at the same level.

Additionally, it makes a huge difference whether this is being conducted by gold sellers versus normal players. One is an actionable violation of the EULA, the other is legitimate – granted, obnoxious – gameplay.

SteepledHat.1345:

Go grind CoF until you have your 500+ gold. Other people can do it so can you.

There is no problem here.

There is indeed no problem. The price of legendaries & cursors are exactly where Anet wants them: so high that a certain amount of people can’t grind for them but have to buy gold with gems, earning Anet money.

2 offers at the same level doesn’t have the psychological effect as 2 different have. This way many think, there are many normal players who have that much money.
I know a guy who have about 20 Dusks and thousands of gold.
And yes, of course legitimate it is a difference. But we’re talking about influences on the price of precursors. And therefore it doesn’t make any difference who controls the market.
However, I don’t want to fight against you, you can’t disprove what I said. You are just telling me that there is a small chance, that I’m wrong. And yeah, that’s totally true. My thesis is right to a certain probability. And 1 – this probability is the chance that you’re right.
Everyone has to choose what he considers to be more probable

Ursan.7846:

I’m still confused as why buy orders differing by 1s means gold sellers….

Someone help me with the logic here. Are you saying that if it was players, they would constantly outbid each other?

That’s not true. Look at an auction house. You get to a point where people will just stop bidding higher, because they reached their limit. You see the same here. Yea, you can bid 2s more, but you hit your limit, you just refuge to go higher.

Very normal.

And you get situations where the seller can hide one its own amongs the buyers to increase the price artificially. Same thing can happen with the 1c undercutting. One thing to notice is the ammount of items being put on the market with a particular price and the trend, especially when comparing the total buy/sell orders.

Surferboy.1649:

2 offers at the same level doesn’t have the psychological effect as 2 different have. This way many think, there are many normal players who have that much money.
I know a guy who have about 20 Dusks and thousands of gold.
And yes, of course legitimate it is a difference. But we’re talking about influences on the price of precursors. And therefore it doesn’t make any difference who controls the market.
However, I don’t want to fight against you, you can’t disprove what I said. You are just telling me that there is a small chance, that I’m wrong. And yeah, that’s totally true. My thesis is right to a certain probability. And 1 – this probability is the chance that you’re right.
Everyone has to choose what he considers to be more probable

Looking at all your posts, you have one major misunderstanding that counters all your arguments: RMT/Gold Sellers do not control the market, since you can get them for free from the Mystic Forge.

Open markets + 24/7 game time (not counting maintenance or other downtime) + millions of players = lots of movement on the Trading Post. I’m sure there are other people in the game who wanted The Lover, and perhaps can afford to list Buy Offers. I know for a fact, because I bought one.

What is happening is all the other requirements of the legendaries have been made significantly easier (in some case, trivialized, relatively speaking to what they used to be), except the precursor which has only been made slightly easier.

So all the time and resources are being put to purchase just those, instead of split among many separate things.

Honestly, if I hadn’t stopped playing when they introduced ascended gear (I came back recently since they fixed a fair chunk of what i disliked), I probably would have had most of it, except for the precursor by now. Look at the price of tier 6 materials (which grow on trees now, you get a bazillion of them just by running in Orr for half an hour), sell all of that at current price, extrapolate how long it takes to make 500g+… its WAY easier than it was a few months back.

There’s just (almost) no reason to put money in anything else, so it all goes there. Once (if?) they make precursors easier to obtain without gold, other things will probably go up in price.

So for sure part of why the price is so high is the difficulty of getting it legitimately isn’t TOO high. Remember games like Lineage 2 and FFXI. Those games were dominated by RTM, but there was still a very large amount of people getting items that made GW2 legendaries look like commodities, and did it legitimately, so its not surprising that something way easier, like a precursor in GW2, is so expensive.

On the other hand, a precursor’s gold price on the RTM is not that expensive… 100-300 bucks depending on where you look. There were not-that-great items in Diablo 3 that went for that much, countless of times per day. In GW2, legendaries are the ultimate reward…. so even if you add up the non-precursor requirements and say its 500-600 bucks, I’d be very surprised if less than a third of people who have legendaries didn’t buy them with $$$, just by looking at other games.

John Smith.4610:

Ursan is correct, there are many, many players who have earned enough money to purchase or create a precursor outside of the TP.

No, the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers.

This post is evidence that their methods at fooling everyone including devs are effective.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Open markets + 24/7 game time (not counting maintenance or other downtime) + millions of players = lots of movement on the Trading Post. I’m sure there are other people in the game who wanted The Lover, and perhaps can afford to list Buy Offers. I know for a fact, because I bought one.

As did I. After being miserably trolled taking the profit I made from dungeons and dumping them down the mystic toilet, I went the CoF1 route. Made ~150g farming on top of what I had in available items in about a week and a half.

The entire time I was watching the buy orders to get a goal in mind. There were always 5 bids on The Lover within 1c of each other at the time. My guess, 5 players all competing for the same prec. When one listing would jump up, so would the other 4, all by 1s or less (usually 1c). I followed their lead, got mine 2 days from my initial bid.

I don’t doubt gold selling sites buying precursors, but I have a slightly harder time believing them placing buy offers. If I were trying to earn real cash by selling the means to a legendary, why not sell the precursor directly for cash? I’ve seen similar trends in quite a few other games, and overall would prolly earn them more direct cash than selling it for gold and selling the gold for cash.

Ursan.7846:

I assure you, there are plenty of wealthy people who 1. are not gold sellers and 2. did not earn money playing the TP. Just because you can’t comprehend it, doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

Many of course made their fortunes by exploiting the early easy ways to get precursors and have since sold them at ever-increasing prices; not to mention the many other exploits that allowed those ‘exploiting early, exploiting often’ to gain an advantage before Anet got round to closing exploit: note how many times Anet fail to confiscate ill-gotten gains in these cases.

Kraggy.4169:

Many of course made their fortunes by exploiting the early easy ways to get precursors and have since sold them at ever-increasing prices; not to mention the many other exploits that allowed those ‘exploiting early, exploiting often’ to gain an advantage before Anet got round to closing exploit: note how many times Anet fail to confiscate ill-gotten gains in these cases.

No seriously. This “I can’t comprehend how people have so much money, so I’m going to assume most rich cheated to get their wealth” schtick gets real annoying.

Ursan.7846:

Kraggy.4169:

Many of course made their fortunes by exploiting the early easy ways to get precursors and have since sold them at ever-increasing prices; not to mention the many other exploits that allowed those ‘exploiting early, exploiting often’ to gain an advantage before Anet got round to closing exploit: note how many times Anet fail to confiscate ill-gotten gains in these cases.

No seriously. This “I can’t comprehend how people have so much money, so I’m going to assume most rich cheated to get their wealth” schtick gets real annoying.

you dont get the point or?

he didnt say all got it by exploiting, the problem is the false money/items didnt get removed of the economy. so the ecnomy is broken since start.

oruma.4092:

you dont get the point or?

he didnt say all got it by exploiting, the problem is the false money/items didnt get removed of the economy. so the ecnomy is broken since start.

Explain false money/items.

Explain broken.

And no, just because you can’t afford precursors, doesn’t mean the economy is broken.

But no seriously, there’s actually a ton of players who earn money “legitly” and can afford a precursor through money they earned. A run through AC/SE/CoF will net you like 10G in 4 hours. Repeat that everyday, and you will get 500G in 50 days. And this is a bare minimum, and not even counting all the mats/rares/exotics that can drop.

Earning money is possible, and maaany people do it (And John Smith is my witness).

John Smith.4610:

Ursan is correct, there are many, many players who have earned enough money to purchase or create a precursor outside of the TP.

No, the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers.

Earning it back when you actually got a decent amount of silver for repeating dungeons? sure, I can see that.

Earning it back when they didnt cost as much as a real life car? sure I can see that also.

Earning it by buying it cheap after lost shores, or by getting it for free in chest at lost shores, sure.

However, I find it highly unlikely that alot of the people that are buying the expensive precursors these days made even a majority of theyr gold from farming.

Only viable way I see of earning one as it is now, is to hope for your mystic toilet, to spit out one, I assume the “mystic” in mystic toilet describes the fact that its working in reverse.

And hoping to make it big by profitting on a patch, like so many have done before me.

Chocolate and black lion chests anyone ?

Coming into the economy of gw2 this late is pretty much a drowning sensation, you missed the gold rush, and now you are feeling the after effects of it.

And sure Ursan, you could have 500g in 50 days, the question is would the precursor be as little as 500g in 50 days? based on previous rises it is VERY unlikely that it will be anywhere close to 500g in 50days.

Surferboy.1649:

And is grinding really what Anet wants of us? Farming all day and night or is it to achieve a legendary weapon while having fun?

Sigh.. you miss the whole point. You do not NEED a legendary to play the game. You do not NEED it to beat any dungeon. You do not NEED it to do well in WvW.

Sigh.. you miss the whole point. You do not NEED a legendary to play the game. You do not NEED it to beat any dungeon. You do not NEED it to do well in WvW.The legendary is a cool cosmetic item for people who WANT to work towards it. A lot of people actually have fun getting everything needed for it.

Sigh.. you miss the whole point. You do not NEED a legendary to play the game. You do not NEED it to beat any dungeon. You do not NEED it to do well in WvW.The legendary is a cool cosmetic item for people who WANT to work towards it. A lot of people actually have fun getting everything needed for it.So basically if you consider it grinding or not fun, DON’T do it. Focus on the parts of the game that are fun for you.

As an extremely causal gamer who has never played the market or traded on the BLTC, I find the idea of earning 500gp to 700gp “just playing” to be extremely reasonable.

I think I’m going to make 30 to 40 gold a month if I continue my causal play (10 or so hours a week, no guild, don’t read the wiki much), which means I could have the best item in the game after a year of very casual play. That’s insanely easy by MMO standards.

It’s also reasonable to assume gold generation scales. So the people who are playing 60 hours a week should be earning 180 to 240 gold a month, likely much more as I’m sure they are much more skilled and knowledgeable then me when it comes to gold generation.

Lexie.5894:

As an extremely causal gamer who has never played the market or traded on the BLTC, I find the idea of earning 500gp to 700gp “just playing” to be extremely reasonable.

I think I’m going to make 30 to 40 gold a month if I continue my causal play (10 or so hours a week, no guild, don’t read the wiki much), which means I could have the best item in the game after a year of very casual play. That’s insanely easy by MMO standards.

It’s also reasonable to assume gold generation scales. So the people who are playing 60 hours a week should be earning 180 to 240 gold a month, likely much more as I’m sure they are much more skilled and knowledgeable then me when it comes to gold generation.

Why can’t we have more people like you ;_;

Lexie.5894:

As an extremely causal gamer who has never played the market or traded on the BLTC, I find the idea of earning 500gp to 700gp “just playing” to be extremely reasonable.

I think I’m going to make 30 to 40 gold a month if I continue my causal play (10 or so hours a week, no guild, don’t read the wiki much), which means I could have the best item in the game after a year of very casual play. That’s insanely easy by MMO standards.

It’s also reasonable to assume gold generation scales. So the people who are playing 60 hours a week should be earning 180 to 240 gold a month, likely much more as I’m sure they are much more skilled and knowledgeable then me when it comes to gold generation.

So in a year you will have enough to pay for the current precusor prices, except the precursors have already risen several hundred percent in half a year, and show no signs of slowing down, more likely is that in a year you’ll have those 500g, and you’ll be about halfway or hell, even one third at this rate.

Even 60 hours a week players might very well get hit in the face when they finish farming 500g in 2 months.

The problem is not that the precursor has a high price, it is that the price is extremly unreliable, and it has a tendency of rising faster then what most hardcores can even hope to keep up with.

Of course this could be somewhat countered by having another event like lost shores, but fact is at the current precursors prices, the players who did not luck out and find a precursor in theyr chest would likely be infuriated, and justifyably so.

As for the arguement that a legendary should take one year to farm because its the best weapon in the game, not its not? in most cases infact you’ll end up having to transmute it because it uses bizare stats that no one in they right mind would roll around with.

Should a legendary be seriously difficult to aquire? hell yes! but it should be a predictable amount of time, not a "Hey I farmed 500g, but now precursor is up to 2000g ) kinda farm.

In all honesty, if you wanted the precursors and legendary as rare as you claim, then you would argue that neither should even be buyable.

Kilrain Daggerspine.6843:

So in a year you will have enough to pay for the current precusor prices, except the precursors have already risen several hundred percent in half a year, and show no signs of slowing down, more likely is that in a year you’ll have those 500g, and you’ll be about halfway or hell, even one third at this rate.

http://xkcd.com/605/

Seen that plenty, its getting to be more common then “arrow to the knee”, Also I find it amusing that some of you try to make extrapolation out to be a joke, it is actually quite useful, chances are most of you use it on a daily basis to come to relevant conclussions.

I base my predictions on previous precursor history, and while I cannot predict just how far up the precursors will go up, it is a pretty safe bet that they will go up.

But hey, if someone a year from now has farmed 500g, and the price has not gone up, feel free to say “I told you so”, I on the other hand will not say I told you so, cause chances are you’d feel kittenty enough as is at that point.

Obviously I cannot predict wether Arena net makes changes that lower precursor price, but amusingly enough that is exactly what your group seems to be trying to avoid ursan.

So if you do indeed get your will, my predictions are that much more likely to come true.

Kilrain Daggerspine.6843:

Also I find it amusing that some of you try to make extrapolation out to be a joke, it is actually quite useful,

Extrapolation, by nature, has a high degree of uncertainty and higher chance that your trend is meaningless and wrong.

Therefore, to see you extrapolate with such great confidence is highly entertaining.

Kilrain Daggerspine.6843:

Obviously I cannot predict wether Arena net makes changes that lower precursor price, but amusingly enough that is exactly what your group seems to be trying to avoid ursan.

That would be amusing, except that I’ll be overjoyed if precursors got cheaper for whatever reason. However, I don’t resort to this strange defeatist “no matter how fast I earn gold precursors will never be within my reach, HELP ANET” “Everyone else who has one must have cheated/played the the TP to get their gold, HELP ANET” that I see constantly in this forum. I will kittening get that kittening precursor, even if it takes me 2 years to do it.

Some gw2spidy data I culled since about November 2012.

Some of the precursor costs (x250), current supply/demand (S/D), trend (S/D UP, DOWN or STEADY) and price (UD or DOWN)

Format – ‘name’ (price) (S/D) (S/D UP, DOWN or STEADY) (Price UP, DOWN or STEADY)

Blood (65G) — (5160/30608) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Venom (27.4G) — (11132/11128) — (UP/DOWN) — (STEADY)
Totem (45G) — (7755/11360) — (STEADY/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Dust (36G) — (2929/30019) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Fang (36.5G) — (3468/15322) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Scale (30.5G) — (17360/23777) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Claw (31.4G) — (4293/16756) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Bone (13.1G) — (18342/42832) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)

Mystic Coin (22.1G) — (42210/45537) — (UP/STEADY) — (UP)
Ectoplasm (94.9G) — (5892/86441) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)

Based on this analysis it is highly likely that, overall, the price of acquiring legendary will go up. Currently it will cost you just over 400G for these and this is not taking into account other precursors such as ‘icy runestone’ which cost 100G for 100.

The three biggest choke points are ‘ectoplasm’, ‘blood’ and ‘dust’, but perhaps mostly ‘ectoplasm’.

Please note that the UP/DOWN terms don’t necessearly imply the magnitude; just the overall trend since about November 2012.

John Smith.4610:

Ursan is correct, there are many, many players who have earned enough money to purchase or create a precursor outside of the TP.

No, the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers.

That is a very interesting statement. To categorically state that the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers implies that you have with certainty identified all the goldsellers and their surrogates. But, yet, if you’ve done that, then why do they still exist in game? Do a few existing under the watchful eye of ArenaNet serve a purpose?

If, on the otherhand, you’ve not identified them all (and their surrogate network) then you can’t make that statement with any degree of accuracy. Logic would then infer that you make it simply to quell the discontented masses.

Of course, I don’t know the real answer, but it does make for an interesting discussion.

Pedra.4381:

John Smith.4610:

Ursan is correct, there are many, many players who have earned enough money to purchase or create a precursor outside of the TP.

No, the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers.

That is a very interesting statement. To categorically state that the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers implies that you have with certainty identified all the goldsellers and their surrogates. But, yet, if you’ve done that, then why do they still exist in game? Do a few existing under the watchful eye of ArenaNet serve a purpose?

If, on the otherhand, you’ve not identified them all (and their surrogate network) then you can’t make that statement with any degree of accuracy. Logic would then infer that you make it simply to quell the discontented masses.

Of course, I don’t know the real answer, but it does make for an interesting discussion.

You don’t have to identify gold sellers. You just need to identify who’s NOT. There’s a difference.

It’s easy to identify who’s not a gold seller, but much harder to identify who is a gold seller. Like an account that has never mailed gold ever is obviously not a gold seller, but an account who has mailed large amounts of gold may or may not be a gold seller.

Ursan.7846:

Pedra.4381:

John Smith.4610:

Ursan is correct, there are many, many players who have earned enough money to purchase or create a precursor outside of the TP.

No, the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers.

That is a very interesting statement. To categorically state that the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers implies that you have with certainty identified all the goldsellers and their surrogates. But, yet, if you’ve done that, then why do they still exist in game? Do a few existing under the watchful eye of ArenaNet serve a purpose?

If, on the otherhand, you’ve not identified them all (and their surrogate network) then you can’t make that statement with any degree of accuracy. Logic would then infer that you make it simply to quell the discontented masses.

Of course, I don’t know the real answer, but it does make for an interesting discussion.

You don’t have to identify gold sellers. You just need to identify who’s NOT. There’s a difference.

It’s easy to identify who’s not a gold seller, but much harder to identify who is a gold seller. Like an account that has never mailed gold ever is obviously not a gold seller, but an account who has mailed large amounts of gold may or may not be a gold seller.

Oh, I see. But then, following your logic, a by-product of identifying “who is not a gold seller” leaves you with a list of who is, correct?

Pedra.4381:

Ursan.7846:

Pedra.4381:

John Smith.4610:

Ursan is correct, there are many, many players who have earned enough money to purchase or create a precursor outside of the TP.

No, the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers.

That is a very interesting statement. To categorically state that the Precursor market is not controlled by goldsellers implies that you have with certainty identified all the goldsellers and their surrogates. But, yet, if you’ve done that, then why do they still exist in game? Do a few existing under the watchful eye of ArenaNet serve a purpose?

If, on the otherhand, you’ve not identified them all (and their surrogate network) then you can’t make that statement with any degree of accuracy. Logic would then infer that you make it simply to quell the discontented masses.

Of course, I don’t know the real answer, but it does make for an interesting discussion.

You don’t have to identify gold sellers. You just need to identify who’s NOT. There’s a difference.

It’s easy to identify who’s not a gold seller, but much harder to identify who is a gold seller. Like an account that has never mailed gold ever is obviously not a gold seller, but an account who has mailed large amounts of gold may or may not be a gold seller.

Oh, I see. But then, following your logic, a by-product of identifying “who is not a gold seller” leaves you with a list of who is, correct?

No, you have a list of “Not gold seller” and “May be gold sellers”

Again, if you never mailed a gold in your account’s lifetime, you fall under the “Not gold seller” group. If you have mailed gold before, you fall under the “May be gold sellers” group (Yes, there are legit people who mail gold to friends.)

PS I obviously have no idea how they detect bots, but I imagine detecting whether a person is NOT bot is far simpler. because bots do some very specific things. While a player may or may not do these (but if you don’t, you’re definitely not a bot)

Ok, I feel much better now. So, we are in agreement then that gold sellers are hard to identify and I’m back to my earlier conclusion that unless ArenaNet has done that they can’t categorically state the Precursor market isn’t controlled by them.

Just a side note about money laundering (or gold laundering in this case), the masters of it, don’t go to seedy banks with terrible reputations. They go to the banks with stellar reputations that no one in the world would ever suspect.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Some gw2spidy data I culled since about November 2012.

Some of the precursor costs (x250), current supply/demand (S/D), trend (S/D UP, DOWN or STEADY) and price (UD or DOWN)

Format – ‘name’ (price) (S/D) (S/D UP, DOWN or STEADY) (Price UP, DOWN or STEADY)

Blood (65G) — (5160/30608) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Venom (27.4G) — (11132/11128) — (UP/DOWN) — (STEADY)
Totem (45G) — (7755/11360) — (STEADY/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Dust (36G) — (2929/30019) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Fang (36.5G) — (3468/15322) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Scale (30.5G) — (17360/23777) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Claw (31.4G) — (4293/16756) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Bone (13.1G) — (18342/42832) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)

Mystic Coin (22.1G) — (42210/45537) — (UP/STEADY) — (UP)
Ectoplasm (94.9G) — (5892/86441) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)

Based on this analysis it is highly likely that, overall, the price of acquiring legendary will go up. Currently it will cost you just over 400G for these and this is not taking into account other precursors such as ‘icy runestone’ which cost 100G for 100.

The three biggest choke points are ‘ectoplasm’, ‘blood’ and ‘dust’, but perhaps mostly ‘ectoplasm’.

Please note that the UP/DOWN terms don’t necessearly imply the magnitude; just the overall trend since about November 2012.

That’s funny, because the supplies of Blood, Totems, Fangs, and Claws have all gone up. This leads me to believe that people should be experiencing an increased income. After all, they’re seeing more of these valuable commodities coming in, so they’re either saving them (and their value) or selling them.

Prices for Mystic Coins have also gone up, but the supply has remained pretty constant. Again, this would lead to higher incomes for everyone.

Prices for Ectoplasm have gone up, but the supply has remained the same or increased, so people should be making more off of selling them.

Of your three choke points, the only one I haven’t been able to get to 250 without purchasing is Blood. Ectoplasms I’m selling for money, and Dust would be well over 250 by now if I hadn’t converted for most of my lodestones. I’m not really sure why you included dust in your list of choke points, considering that it’s barely in the top half of the list if you sort by cost.

Iures.2894:

That’s funny, because the supplies of Blood, Totems, Fangs, and Claws have all gone up. This leads me to believe that people should be experiencing an increased income. After all, they’re seeing more of these valuable commodities coming in, so they’re either saving them (and their value) or selling them.

Prices for Mystic Coins have also gone up, but the supply has remained pretty constant. Again, this would lead to higher incomes for everyone.

Prices for Ectoplasm have gone up, but the supply has remained the same or increased, so people should be making more off of selling them.

Of your three choke points, the only one I haven’t been able to get to 250 without purchasing is Blood. Ectoplasms I’m selling for money, and Dust would be well over 250 by now if I hadn’t converted for most of my lodestones. I’m not really sure why you included dust in your list of choke points, considering that it’s barely in the top half of the list if you sort by cost.

With regards to dust:

1) Needed to craft gift of magic (part of any legendary)
2) Price is constantly going up and supply plummeted drasticaly since 14th Jan
3) Low sell, high buy listings
4) Acquired mainly via Risen (or spectral weapons)

(http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24277)

Perhaps people are hoarding large volume of these and do not wish to sell them, however, the drop rate seems to have been reduced, hence generaly speaking player will look towards TP to get it.

Also, I have considered price rise/fall since about November 2012 – when the infamous patch was added.

I know what it’s used for, and you didn’t even include the lodestone conversions in your list. What I’m saying is that, despite the higher demand, it’s still a cheaper item than almost half of the other mats. Listing it as a “choke point” just seems odd.

In regards to your last sentence—rising prices combined with easier access means rising income. I’m using your data to counter those who are complaining about rising precursor costs. Yes, precursor cost is going up, but so is minimum wage.