Guild Wars 2

Vol.7601:

I just also realized that we could also see a (moderate) drop in the prices of precursors

These events are a good source of T5 mats, which directly influence the cost of mystic forge gambling.

If you check precursor prices from that time, you will see that they dropped a little after the Pavilion got released (presumably due to the high influx of t5 mats) on August 6th.

However, the high influx of t6 mats (fine and rare) made Legendaries cheaper to craft as well. All the gold that was pumped into the economy with the Pavilion and invasions also meant that people could suddenly afford precursors and their price went right up again, especially after they announced asc and switchable stats for leggies at the end of August.

This week, i expect many players, who forged precursors on a regular basis to lay off of it, as they expect fine t5 mats to drop considerably (they already do), so i dont think alot of new pres will get forged right now.
The big question is how much precursors in peoples inventory will get dumped onto the market in anticipation of the new update. Those could possibly really put a dent into their prices.

I have about +- 400g worth of leather invested over the past year, which really isn’t a lot and incredibly inefficient in terms of return, and I’m not comfortable selling just yet.

Right now the buy orders are very low and not numerous, and when I do plan to dump, I plan on dumping everything to buy orders.

Thick Leathers may actually go no where significant, as they did the first time with BoTW when trading mithril was more efficient. but I hope they change that up this time around. I’m in no rush for gold anyways since I got two Dawns yesterday

Biggest way to kill speculation:

250 bloodstone dust for a box. No one will need TP mats at all.

Axialbloom.8109:

Yeah, last year’s exchange actually failed to do anything with the excess mats really, because there was just no incentive there. People just dumped the mats they had bought back on the trading post, after finding out how bad the things in the boxes were.

First time the bazaar came to town

Silk scrap went from having 5.1 million in supply to 970K in 36 hours.
Hard leather section went from having 9.8 million to 700K in 36 hours.

In both cases it was the first time in memory that the TP price budged off of vendor plus 1c. Hard leather sections are back to those levels, well was, 2.5 million (1750g) were bought up on the announcement so now there’s only 5.5 million on the TP.

Currently, the only thing I’m still worried about that I’m sitting on is my Molten Jetpack, but I HIGHLY doubt they’ll rerelease that, since it was from a boss. My 5 Chain greatsaws should be safe, since they were from Halloween, and the rest of my investments sit on Black lion weapon skins and a couple of precursors. I should probably sell my precursors since they earn nothing in the short term, but I do need extra cash for when the Bazaar madness begins. While everyone panics, just quietly buy up everything else. Personally, I think the price of the catchers would stabilize at around 10-20g, but wind catchers will drop the most since they were the “rarest” post-patch, but now the numbers should catch up as more people trade scraps for them. Then again, there’s always a chance that the skins won’t be introduced at all. If that happens, the moment GW2 goes online and I confirm that, I’m going to buy up every sell order ;D

There was a post on reddit from a user who attended the China Beta event. It seems that during Festival of the Winds, past guaranteed reward skins (presumably this means things like the Sclerite Karka Shell or the Gas Mask) can be re-obtained. Items which were RNG drops like the Monocle or the Jetpack can be obtained by China users, but most likely not for NA/EU.

So, your Jetpack is probably safe.

That said, ANet has shown that they’re more than willing to bring back previously exclusive items, even ones that were originally said to be one-time only. (The Jetpack came back during the Battle for LA, for example, despite Colin saying once he didn’t want to bring it back as that would damage its status.) As such, I’d be very wary about investing too heavily into exclusive skins. (There could be a bug where the Jetpack isn’t supposed to drop for NA/EU users, for example, but it does anyway before ANet can correct it. Or they just shrug and go “Eh, Festival’s over in 2 weeks. It’s not worth fixing.”)

Behellagh.1468:

Axialbloom.8109:

Yeah, last year’s exchange actually failed to do anything with the excess mats really, because there was just no incentive there. People just dumped the mats they had bought back on the trading post, after finding out how bad the things in the boxes were.

First time the bazaar came to town

Silk scrap went from having 5.1 million in supply to 970K in 36 hours.
Hard leather section went from having 9.8 million to 700K in 36 hours.

In both cases it was the first time in memory that the TP price budged off of vendor plus 1c. Hard leather sections are back to those levels, well was, 2.5 million (1750g) were bought up on the announcement so now there’s only 5.5 million on the TP.

Yes, and then the supply went right back up after people put it all back on the TP. Hence why I said ‘people just dumped the mats they had bought back on the trading post’…

Of course they went right back up, the Bazaar ended, the sink was gone but the constant flow of supply of those mats weren’t. Ascended mat crafting is what keeping silk in check nowadays.

Boss granted my vacation day for next Tuesday! Time to make back some money from panic buyers.

Behellagh.1468:

Of course they went right back up, the Bazaar ended, the sink was gone but the constant flow of supply of those mats weren’t. Ascended mat crafting is what keeping silk in check nowadays.

It went right back up DURING the festival. People put the stuff they had bought from the TP right back on the TP, crashing prices back down.

I am hoping for some new skins. I bought a few things just in case.

jazzllanna.1278:

I am hoping for some new skins. I bought a few things just in case.

Hopefully, this time I can get the wind catcher without having to spend hundreds of gold on it.

Zaxares.5419:

jazzllanna.1278:

I am hoping for some new skins. I bought a few things just in case.

From data mining...

hide spoiler

The data-miners have dug up a bunch of new models for things like ships and minis, but no obvious collection of weapons. They’ve found a bunch of different spears with attached banners, but that suggests it’ll be environmental props rather than new weapons. So, it’s likely that no new skins will be available for Festival of the Winds.

I saw that, but do they usually show what vendors will have for events? Eh I still have my fingers crossed :P

Imagine how I felt seeing the prices fall. I bought a Lightning Skin for 93g on Sunday. 2 days later selling for a 1/3 of that. I need to work on my morning coffee prediction skills some more :\

Just a little advice on how to capitalize on updates like this:
There are obvious market changes, which have already been mentioned.
As the Festival of the 4 Winds seems to be a mix of 2 previously released patches (Bazaar of the 4 Winds and Queens Jubilee) there are several markets that are affected.
Just to make clear, i have no insider info on what will be released again and what will change, i base my assumptions on my experience of last years events.
The Bazaar was focussed on the following markets:
A common mat sink of all tiers (leather/wood/ore/cloth as well as for festive mats, Candy Corn and Zhaitaffy) to exchange for Zapphyre Sanctum Supply boxes. Those boxes dropped mostly Celestial Recipes (which dropped once again from the Ultimate Citizens Rescue Bag during LA events). Celestial recipes are one of the most profitable markets, i invested in since release, on some recipes i made 10.000% profit within 3 months, buying for 20 silver and selling for 20g. During last release of the Bazaar, i bought alot of mats to trade for boxes and another byproduct of those boxes was fortune kites, which gave you a 10 min buff (stackable) for Magic find, gold find, karma gain, etc. as well as kite fortunes and tickets. In fact, i traded and opened so many boxes, that i had enough kite fortunes and therefore fortune scraps and tickets to trade for all 9 helmet skins and all 5 backpiece skins, a value of of several hundred gold, if the only alternative is to buy the unbound tradeable skins from rng drops on the tp.
The Bazaar was also the update that introduced Quart Crystals, so i expect a big drop in value for them. But as quartz crystals are only being used in crafting celestial gear, which is account bound, there arent any further consequences for it.

The Crown Pavillion is way more complex. For those that dont know, it was the update that introduced watchwork sprockets and those are used in a wide variety of crafting recipes (which makes them way more interesting). With the feature patch, some of the runes and sigil that need sprockets to be crafted (Renewal, PErplexity, Torment, Bursting etc) got very expensive. I expect watchwork sprockets (and quartz crystals) to crash to copper value quite fast, which means that quick crafters (that own the recipes) can take advantage of relatively high buy orders for those upgrade components.
Another market to watch are Watchwork Boxes, which drop a variety of goods, from sprockets, account bound recipes to Charged Lodestones. Those boxes were heavily speculated on and flipped between tp players, which means they go for insane prices atm (the t4 box goes for 1.6g highest offer ).
Most of the time, when updates go live, people focus on the obvious, for example dyes after the feature patch or for the upcoming update t5/6 mats (because last year was a farmfest for those) or sprockets/quartz directly. In my experience, those markets, where everybody focusses on arent very profitable. Try to think around some corners and you will make way more profit, like the example of the watchwork boxes or sigils/runes that i have given and you will make tons of gold within the first hours of the patch being live. And that doesnt neccessarily have anyting to do with just playing the tp, you can make hundreds of gold by just farming for the right watchwork box, crafting the right sigil/rune or trading for enough supply boxes to take advantage of buy offers for celestial recipes, that are still high.

This event is to give China access to sprockets and quartz, to even it out with US/EU for future updates.

Next update will probably have toxic spores and whatever I am missing.

Axialbloom.8109:

This event is to give China access to sprockets and quartz, to even it out with US/EU for future updates.

Next update will probably have toxic spores and whatever I am missing.

An interesting (and plausible) speculation. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if ANet also wanted to offer opportunities & better supply of such items for newer players in the NA/EU regions.

Axialbloom.8109:

This event is to give China access to sprockets and quartz, to even it out with US/EU for future updates.

Next update will probably have toxic spores and whatever I am missing.

You state that as if you KNOW it for a fact. Has Anet in fact announced any content release for the CN game? Exactly why would a their content need these advanced crafting materials so soon after release?

I’m not saying it’s not possible, just that I don’t see Anet introducing these areas into a game that has not been on-line for even a month. I could be totally wrong, but I think your assumption that CN servers get the same updates as we do is fully incorrect.

Brother Grimm.5176:

Axialbloom.8109:

This event is to give China access to sprockets and quartz, to even it out with US/EU for future updates.

Next update will probably have toxic spores and whatever I am missing.

You state that as if you KNOW it for a fact. Has Anet in fact announced any content release for the CN game? Exactly why would a their content need these advanced crafting materials so soon after release?

I’m not saying it’s not possible, just that I don’t see Anet introducing these areas into a game that has not been on-line for even a month. I could be totally wrong, but I think your assumption that CN servers get the same updates as we do is fully incorrect.

Pretty sure they want to sync the regions so that China gets the update only a few days later…

It stands to reason that they would have to introduce the same mats into China that US/EU has, so that they can use the same content.

Well I’m sitting on 1k gold worth of gold ingots and ore… Ore has risen 40c since I bought it so technically I’ve already made about 800G in a few days, but we shall see the outcome post patch

Esoteric.4395:

Well I’m sitting on 1k gold worth of gold ingots and ore… Ore has risen 40c since I bought it so technically I’ve already made about 800G in a few days, but we shall see the outcome post patch

I’ve been hoarding gold ore/silver ore hoping for that jewelcrafting 500 patch one day. Sadly I bought both at 1s/35c respectively, so I have lost gold on it. Someday, it’ll go back up…

Vol.7601:

I’ve been hoarding gold ore/silver ore hoping for that jewelcrafting 500 patch one day. Sadly I bought both at 1s/35c respectively, so I have lost gold on it. Someday, it’ll go back up…

Those are unrealized losses, so you haven’t actually lost anything yet. It’s a theoretical loss if you were to sell today.

Sorry, bub, we only apply mark-to-market accounting in this forum.

I’m curious if Anet has indeed changed the exchange rates on the boxes. If they don’t then gossamer scraps are the cheapest…

Kootje.9271:

I’m curious if Anet has indeed changed the exchange rates on the boxes. If they don’t then gossamer scraps are the cheapest…

The market will correct that very, very quickly.

What ends up happening the moment the patch hits is that the most efficient material will be bought up to the point that it will be somewhat equal to other materials.

So for example, gossamer may be the most cost-efficient material, but it will be bought up so quickly it will end up being as efficient as Thick Leather or mithril.

I really wish they would drop patches on Friday evenings. I never get to participate in the flurry of financial fun during the middle of the work day on a Tuesday.

mtpelion.4562:

I really wish they would drop patches on Friday evenings. I never get to participate in the flurry of financial fun during the middle of the work day on a Tuesday.

That’s the exact reason why I’m a speculator and not a flipper ;(

mtpelion.4562:

I really wish they would drop patches on Friday evenings. I never get to participate in the flurry of financial fun during the middle of the work day on a Tuesday.

I SADLY secretly installed guild wars 2 on my work computer to get in on the action.

Axialbloom.8109:

This event is to give China access to sprockets and quartz, to even it out with US/EU for future updates.

Next update will probably have toxic spores and whatever I am missing.

Really good point! Made me consider to sell my spores now as well.

If you have thick leather I hope you are selling it… it is about to go above 30c…

ZudetGambeous.9573:

If you have thick leather I hope you are selling it… it is about to go above 30c…

Pls stap. You’re joking are you?

edit: welp it’s 30c. What da bookah happened? What was revealed in the German preview?

That’s 1100g in profit right there…if I can sell all 2000 stacks ;/

Silver Ore has gone up too, but I was hoping to sell it when it reaches +1s, not 50c

Funny enough, commodities weren’t my main investment this patch. I focused largely on dodge food + orrian truffles.

you can see there is a leather vendor with the chest but no one knows what actualy inside maybe same stuff last year i don t care anymore i sold all my leather all rdy
uhm and in last reward tab under the story stuff there actualy a panda mini fpr a lot tickets
732 solds awesome hope cooking materials like cinamon are pushed as well or maybe next time i own actualy 1mio from that 5 on trading post lol

Hmm I just hope that the cost-reward ratio is enough to push the price of leather further. Right now the price jump is from speculation. Oh well

Danke!

edit: BTW can you do me a favor..can you please tell me the quantity of leather at each price that shows on the buy order tab? I.e. is there a huge price wall of 500,000 units at 34c?

Vol.7601:

Hmm I just hope that the cost-reward ratio is enough to push the price of leather further. Right now the price jump is from speculation. Oh well

Danke!

edit: BTW can you do me a favor..can you please tell me the quantity of leather at each price that shows on the buy order tab? I.e. is there a huge price wall of 500,000 units at 34c?

there was 900k at 30c, when I logged off 20 minutes ago it was holding at 40c, with about 180k supply left.

for that leather actualy a 200k block at 40 c and after a 300k block sell at 50c
buy orders are down a bit
but as long as we not know
what this year is in the boxes and drop rates of them
to risky and i sold all my stuff all rdy

Darnit.

I also just realized that I have enough leather to crash the market back to 8c buy orders. Heck, there are a total of 800,000 buy order listings right now. I have 500,000 leather to dump! :\

Vol.7601:

Darnit.

I also just realized that I have enough leather to crash the market back to 8c buy orders. Heck, there are a total of 800,000 buy order listings right now. I have 500,000 leather to dump! :\

looks like you can get rare season 1 items from those boxes, prices might be going up after all.

BTW, it seems pavillion is no longer farmable. T5/T6 mats may not crash at all.

Vol.7601:

Darnit.

I also just realized that I have enough leather to crash the market back to 8c buy orders. Heck, there are a total of 800,000 buy order listings right now. I have 500,000 leather to dump! :\

That will also take you a couple of hours to sell those 2k stacks.
I like the new signature though…

Sadly I may have overestimated the difficulty of Liadri. With the ferocity changes and introduction of ascended gear, Liadri seems to be much easier now ;/

Liadri was always about fighting bugs and the bad camera.

KarateKid.5648:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Spiky.8403:

silvermember.8941:

t6 materials are going to drop HARD.

Time to unload some mats.

edit: Not selling mine because I believe it is better to have more mats than less mats.

Why do you think that they will drop in price? (I didn’t play during summer 2013 so I don’t know anything about upcoming patch)

The pavillion filled the market with easy t6 from the shear amount of farming happening. It actually took a bit ti stabilize afterward. I remember farming dozens of t6 claws and fangs with minimal effort.

Yah, I’m thinking that with the current state of affairs on loot stinginess, the drop rate’s going to be nerfed from space. I hope not, but am afraid that’s what’s going to happen.

But I soooo wanted to be dead wrong… sorry all

Vol.7601:

Sadly I may have overestimated the difficulty of Liadri. With the ferocity changes and introduction of ascended gear, Liadri seems to be much easier now ;/

They apparently also removed the glass ceiling and changed her AoE circles to the new orange ones, making it much easier to spot.

Two more unconfirmed changes are that the orbs pull you much less often and the shadows are slower now (which should give you more time to grab and throw light orbs).

Well, gold ore about doubled, but I think once I get back from the lab I’m going to spend most of it trying to get festival tokens so I can get all the rewards I missed out on!

Esoteric.4395:

Well, gold ore about doubled, but I think once I get back from the lab I’m going to spend most of it trying to get festival tokens so I can get all the rewards I missed out on!

Nearly all unrefined common mats spiked a bit in price. However, refined common mats still taking a while to adjust to their new crafting cost. I think that will set in, once people start crafting their ascended mats again.

Copper ore hovers around 1.5s but bronze ingots are still available at 1s.
This is a phenomenon i have seen on all refined mats.

Vol.7601:

Kootje.9271:

I’m curious if Anet has indeed changed the exchange rates on the boxes. If they don’t then gossamer scraps are the cheapest…

The market will correct that very, very quickly.

What ends up happening the moment the patch hits is that the most efficient material will be bought up to the point that it will be somewhat equal to other materials.

So for example, gossamer may be the most cost-efficient material, but it will be bought up so quickly it will end up being as efficient as Thick Leather or mithril.

This.
I have been stocking up on CLS, RLS, Gold Ore, Gossamer, Cotton, Wool and especially… Iron Ore. Still amazed at how Thick Leather refuses to fall. I sold 400+ stacks last night around 30/31 and was amazed at how easy it was. Perhaps the so called rational people were looking at the cheapest material in price? So weird…

My investments of Orrian Truffles/dodge food have failed massively so far. Those ascended/ferocity changes have really made a huge difference. I was able to beat Liadri on my 4th try. I remember spending days doing it last year, and the one time I did beat it I got it barely.

I think I may end up breaking even on truffles while losing out on foods as it’s hard to sell all those stacks. Thankfully my (potential) losses are offset by Thick Leather. I don’t know how many I still have left to sell but I spent 5 hours selling stacks upon stacks at 30c. Silver Ore is also moving well.

I wonder if it really is a good time to offload. I think there’s fair odds that after this giant mat sink they’ll introduce 500 JC and a permanent leather fix akin to silk. Further bolstering my suspicion is the extreme nerf to farming via champ trains and the QP events that occurred in this patch. There’s also the prospect of “rebuilding” lion’s arch…

20-30c is no doubt a safe take-profit level on an 8c purchase, but if the price doesn’t crash back before the next update that could be a huge upside lost.

If you can sell a product for 3-4 times what you paid for it, it would be imprudent not to sell now. If it goes up further, that isn’t really a loss, you still made a FORTUNE by taking the safe route.