Guild Wars 2

Hell Avenger.7021:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Geikamir.6329:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Whats the weather like in Conspiracy Theory Land?

If the real world financial market has insider trading, this game definitely will have it. Since there is zero punishment and lack of oversight to control for this type of information being given out.

You know what it’s called when people allege a vast conspiracy and their only evidence is conjecture, circular logic and reductive reasoning?

Claiming that it doesn’t happen with incomplete knowledge is just as bad as claiming that it does happen with incomplete knowledge.

Actually, the default position on any claim is the skeptic. The burden of proof lies with the person making the claim. I made no claim that it isn’t happening, for all I know it might be happening. But pointing out the lack of evidence in another’s argument does not, necessarily, imply an endorsement of the opposite position. Understand the difference?

But I didnt see any evidence offered by the OP or any of the other parrots in the replies, so it was pretty clear that once again we were trapped in a conspiracy theory thread made by someone whose creativity is a bit bigger than his reasoning ability.

Burden of Proof … lol, obviously you are a lawyer wannabe. Buddy real world investing or human behavior don’t always follow your rule book. Stuffs you learn in school is important, but please do not assume the world work in that naive simple case.

You want an easy way to spot real world insider trading? VERY EASY, check out the price of certain stock prior to M&A announcement, almost in all cases the price creep up a little.

And yet, everything I said was correct and your response didn’t address anything I said.

Hilarious! All you really said is basically: “I don’t know anything, you cannot prove anything. Therefore, there is nothing.” A typical knee jerk response from a lawyer wannabe.

We are talking things that are more similar to the markets than court cases. If we need advices on the legal ramification of a deal, we will talk to you else be gone, because your “expertise” is useless.

If you’re going to misrepresent what I said, ofcourse the strawman you beat up on will be pretty trivial.

My assertion, because you clearly didn’t get, is thus, “There is no obvious evidence of insider trading, and the OP did not present any. Therefore, anyone claiming to ‘know’ it was insider trading is taking part in a conspiracy theory. A responsible, rational person waits until the evidence is presented before reaching a conclusion one way or the other, and certainly doesn’t make strong allegations until such a time.”

Again it isn’t my responsibility to prove to the OP that there was no case of insider trading, because I don’t know that there wasn’t. Since he is making the claim, it’s his job to back it up or back off of it. If he makes a strong claim with no evidence and won’t back it up upon criticism, it is not ad hominem of me to call it conspiratorial thinking, since that is self-evident.

As a completely anecdotal aside, a guildmate of mine made 1,200g after this patch by investing heavily in wood stacks of all tiers as soon as they announced low level mats would be part of the ascended crafting process. No one tipped him off from inside anet. He just used his brain and realized that while everyone would be rushing to invest in ore, investing in wood (much less supply) would yield bigger gains. No insider trading needed when you simply utilize publicly available information more intelligently than the average person.

I can screenshot the jump in price on 2 September of the crossing, if you like. While interesting, you don’t need any more data than spidy already provides. It’s there for all to see. One day before the patch of 3 September, the item jumped to a price which it had never reached before, for reasons no one could remotely speculate on in advance. The jumping puzzle conversation, while interesting, is irrelevant. If I, with no interest in this item, had posted the spidy data on this item with a similar argument the OP makes, the resulting conclusion would and should be no different.

And please, for the love of this game, stop comparing this situation to the obvious speculation on wood for weapons and silk for the upcoming armor. That made sense. This doesn’t.

So it was only caused by insider trading, not the increase in wealth afforded by champion box farming putting formerly out-of-reach goods into the impulse buy range. I see.

There’s always more than one explanation for things, give it a little thought before you claim the sky is falling.

I just looked at the graph

If you go to around the 17th of August there is around 16 available.

Supply dips to around 5 on the 24th of August.

Supply jumps back up to 20 on the 28th of August.

On the 31st of august it looks like 6 sold that day

Supply drops to 5 around the 1st.

Doesn’t look any have been relisted.

The blog post about economy changes came out on the 30th.

In that blog post they mention Magic find items and selection of stats with some high end items retaining their stats. So that could have been a reason why so many sold that day.

GW1 had insider trading so there’s no reason to think GW2 wouldn’t. Anet employees, alpha testers, the press and all their friends/family will get access to information prior to their release.

And yes, for the love of god, start stacking in gossamer and orbs. I could use the free cash.

How “hot” does an issue need to become BEFORE someone from Anet comes in here and answers questions that are this important?

It takes you far too long Anet to answer ANY burning question and there are now far too many.

atheria.2837:

How “hot” does an issue need to become BEFORE someone from Anet comes in here and answers questions that are this important?

It takes you far too long Anet to answer ANY burning question and there are now far too many.

I wouldnt call this “Hot” it’s 1 persons claim. If multiple people piled in here making the same exact claim with personal stories, screenshots and graphs then it would be hot.

oZii.2864:

I just looked at the graph

If you go to around the 17th of August there is around 16 available.

Supply dips to around 5 on the 24th of August.

Supply jumps back up to 20 on the 28th of August.

On the 31st of august it looks like 6 sold that day

Supply drops to 5 around the 1st.

Doesn’t look any have been relisted.

The blog post about economy changes came out on the 30th.

In that blog post they mention Magic find items and selection of stats with some high end items retaining their stats. So that could have been a reason why so many sold that day.

So when you “looked at the graph”, did you disable the buy and sell listing price? Because your info ignores the elephant in the room. At all the dates you indicate, the price is hovering around 155-161g. As usual. The day before the patch, it jumped to 200g, a price point it had never reached before, and which cannot be explained by the mere magic find changes. If you can whip out 160g for a staff, the stats on it are pretty much irrelevant.

The only public info given, on 31 August in the official blog post, was:

“The only exceptions to this rule are in some high-end weapons that will still get the ability to select their stats, but will remain tradable.”

So did immobulus, infinite light, or any other high end MF weapon get bought up the day before the patch, and shot up in price? No. Just the crossing and the mad moon, the latter of which shows identical activity from 1-2 September as the crossing. (Apparently, arachnophobia wasn’t that interesting; I don’t like it much either, but that’s beside the point).

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Geikamir.6329:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Whats the weather like in Conspiracy Theory Land?

If the real world financial market has insider trading, this game definitely will have it. Since there is zero punishment and lack of oversight to control for this type of information being given out.

You know what it’s called when people allege a vast conspiracy and their only evidence is conjecture, circular logic and reductive reasoning?

Claiming that it doesn’t happen with incomplete knowledge is just as bad as claiming that it does happen with incomplete knowledge.

Actually, the default position on any claim is the skeptic. The burden of proof lies with the person making the claim. I made no claim that it isn’t happening, for all I know it might be happening. But pointing out the lack of evidence in another’s argument does not, necessarily, imply an endorsement of the opposite position. Understand the difference?

But I didnt see any evidence offered by the OP or any of the other parrots in the replies, so it was pretty clear that once again we were trapped in a conspiracy theory thread made by someone whose creativity is a bit bigger than his reasoning ability.

Burden of Proof … lol, obviously you are a lawyer wannabe. Buddy real world investing or human behavior don’t always follow your rule book. Stuffs you learn in school is important, but please do not assume the world work in that naive simple case.

You want an easy way to spot real world insider trading? VERY EASY, check out the price of certain stock prior to M&A announcement, almost in all cases the price creep up a little.

And yet, everything I said was correct and your response didn’t address anything I said.

Hilarious! All you really said is basically: “I don’t know anything, you cannot prove anything. Therefore, there is nothing.” A typical knee jerk response from a lawyer wannabe.

We are talking things that are more similar to the markets than court cases. If we need advices on the legal ramification of a deal, we will talk to you else be gone, because your “expertise” is useless.

If you’re going to misrepresent what I said, ofcourse the strawman you beat up on will be pretty trivial.

My assertion, because you clearly didn’t get, is thus, “There is no obvious evidence of insider trading, and the OP did not present any. Therefore, anyone claiming to ‘know’ it was insider trading is taking part in a conspiracy theory. A responsible, rational person waits until the evidence is presented before reaching a conclusion one way or the other, and certainly doesn’t make strong allegations until such a time.”

Again it isn’t my responsibility to prove to the OP that there was no case of insider trading, because I don’t know that there wasn’t. Since he is making the claim, it’s his job to back it up or back off of it. If he makes a strong claim with no evidence and won’t back it up upon criticism, it is not ad hominem of me to call it conspiratorial thinking, since that is self-evident.

As a completely anecdotal aside, a guildmate of mine made 1,200g after this patch by investing heavily in wood stacks of all tiers as soon as they announced low level mats would be part of the ascended crafting process. No one tipped him off from inside anet. He just used his brain and realized that while everyone would be rushing to invest in ore, investing in wood (much less supply) would yield bigger gains. No insider trading needed when you simply utilize publicly available information more intelligently than the average person.

Exactly what I wrote, anybody read your comment can conclude your comment as:

“I don’t know anything, you cannot prove anything. Therefore, there is nothing.” – typical knee jerk response from a lawyer wannabe.

About your anecdote. Who is talking about patch detail being public available prior to release? Do you know what we are talking about here at all?

P.S. I read all of your paragraphs of empty statements. You think all human should act like a machine, “If there is no A, then we cannot do B, so don’t even think about C.” <- you might pat yourself on the back and tell yourself that you are being logical, but it is actually an extremely short sighted action.

And go read Buttercup comment right after yours.

@HA: Except, that’s not lawyer-wannabe talk. That’s common sense, basic scientific knowledge you learn about in ELEMENTARY SCHOOL…..

@Butter, You’re ignoring the bigger elephant in the room, which you even admit to. MF item speculation. Obviously, people are going to want Crossing and Moon because they are THE more popular ones…. which means the more lucrative investments to make!

Geez, people. Common sense. Use it!

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Except, that’s not lawyer-wannabe talk. That’s common sense, basic scientific knowledge you learn about in ELEMENTARY SCHOOL…..

Exactly, it is the basic. You should use deduction capability of your brain, but if you cannot use the price movements data and news announcements availability and make judgement call, you REALLY FAILED UNIVERSITY.

Can you explain to me, why certain goods move up in price the day prior to changes?? (the details of the changes was not covered anywhere? not on GW2 dev interview or news outlet or gw2dulify?)

You might say, oooh random movement in price, but it happens almost every time to items with sizable and obvious demand/supply change.

If all lawyers are like this, I would not hire any of them into the investment industry.

Yes, I can explain it to you, as well as other’s have already tried. I’m not going to beat the dead horse anymore.

Do yourself a favor. Look up the information on the basics of the Scientific Method please. You might have a life-changing epitome.

And no, btw, I did not fail “university”; I graduated with Honors.

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Yes, I can explain it to you, as well as other’s have already tried. I’m not going to beat the dead horse anymore.

Do yourself a favor. Look up the information on the basics of the Scientific Method please. You might have a life-changing epitome.

And no, btw, I did not fail “university”; I graduated with Honors.

Buddy, I graduated with High Distinction (not just Distinction). Your honors just meant 4 years of univiersity instead of 3 years post secondary program. LOLOLOL I graduated with High Distinction with Honors in a top university rank in the world.

in the post “…. price of precursor” you speculate, in the “insider trading” post you promote scientific fact. What a troll or your are just inconsistent. Two posts in the last ten minutes with opposite views.

Sort yourself out please.

Hell Avenger.7021:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Yes, I can explain it to you, as well as other’s have already tried. I’m not going to beat the dead horse anymore.

Do yourself a favor. Look up the information on the basics of the Scientific Method please. You might have a life-changing epitome.

And no, btw, I did not fail “university”; I graduated with Honors.

Buddy, I graduated with High Distinction (not just Distinction). Your honors just meant 4 years of univiersity instead of 3 years post secondary program. LOLOLOL I graduated with High Distinction with Honors in a top university rank in the world.

in the post “…. price of precursor” you speculate, in the “insider trading” post you promote scientific fact. What a troll or your are just inconsistent. Two posts in the last ten minutes with opposite views.

Apparently, you never learned reading comprehension either.

Also, where I’m from, there is no honors in a graduate program. You either pass or you fail. All the way up to Doctorates. Would you like some salt and pepper for the foot you just stuck in your mouth?

Hell Avenger.7021:

Exactly what I wrote, anybody read your comment can conclude your comment as:

“I don’t know anything, you cannot prove anything. Therefore, there is nothing.” – typical knee jerk response from a lawyer wannabe.

About your anecdote. Who is talking about patch detail being public available prior to release? Do you know what we are talking about here at all?

P.S. I read all of your paragraphs of empty statements. You think all human should act like a machine, “If there is no A, then we cannot do B, so don’t even think about C.” <- you might pat yourself on the back and tell yourself that you are being logical, but it is actually an extremely short sighted action.

And go read Buttercup comment right after yours.

Actually, you’re pretty dopey sounding for someone so educated. You clearly didn’t understand what I said, so I’ll break it down for you in the simplest English possible (as I have intuited that it might not be your primary language)….

You say my argument is, “I don’t know anything, you cannot prove anything. Therefore, there is nothing.”

My actual argument is, “I don’t know anything, you cannot prove anything. therefore, making any conclusion one way or the other is wrong at this point.”

If you cannot understand the distinction of those two positions, I cannot help you further.

Frosty and Frosty Law Firm.4981:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Yes, I can explain it to you, as well as other’s have already tried. I’m not going to beat the dead horse anymore.

Do yourself a favor. Look up the information on the basics of the Scientific Method please. You might have a life-changing epitome.

And no, btw, I did not fail “university”; I graduated with Honors.

Buddy, I graduated with High Distinction (not just Distinction). Your honors just meant 4 years of univiersity instead of 3 years post secondary program. LOLOLOL I graduated with High Distinction with Honors in a top university rank in the world.

in the post “…. price of precursor” you speculate, in the “insider trading” post you promote scientific fact. What a troll or your are just inconsistent. Two posts in the last ten minutes with opposite views.

Sort yourself out please.

For someone graduating from a top university you can’t name, you seem to have problems with basic punctuation.

For someone graduating from a top university you can’t name, you seem to have problems with basic grammar.

For someone graduating from a top university you can’t name, your arguments are inconsistent and ad-hominem. Particularly if the other person is better at arguing than you are.

For someone graduating from a top university you can’t name, you seem insecure. Calling everyone “Buddy” will not get you friends, no matter how convincingly you pretend.

In short, you’re not convincing anybody. You’re coming off as stupid, particularly with the “lawyer wannabe” drivel.

Do you think I really care about posting proper sentence on an internet forum? lol

FYI, my use of “buddy” was not a friendly call at all.

Why I don’t want to name my university? Simply, I do not wish to give out my private details to random folks on the internet. Take it or leave it, it is the truth.

I am not saying insider trading is or is not happening. I don’t have enough information to make one claim or another. However……

The crossing is a Magic Find set we were informed that it was being changed pre-patch. It was noted on the twitch stream and those who paid attention to the news.

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Yes, I can explain it to you, as well as other’s have already tried. I’m not going to beat the dead horse anymore.

Do yourself a favor. Look up the information on the basics of the Scientific Method please. You might have a life-changing epitome.

And no, btw, I did not fail “university”; I graduated with Honors.

Whut?

OK, I am a lawyer. I’ll concede that my knowledge of the Scientific Method is limited. What I do know, however, is that this Method is “a method or procedure that has characterized natural science since the 17th century, consisting in systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.”

The underlying feature of this method is being able to replicate an event.
Think about it. Can anyone of us replicate the event? I sure hope not. Because that’s exactly the problem!

“Your honor, I did not commit murder! Yes, I was there, yes I had a gun in my hand, and yes I hated the person, but, but, you can’t replicate the event, can you? Therefore, I must be acquitted.”

There is no logical explanation for the extreme rise in price of the mad moon and the crossing one day before the patch. No other magic find item showed a similar pattern. Additionally, we were explicitly told by Anet that high level Magic Find items would not be affected by the patch in that they would remain tradeable. So in fact, this goes against your theory people should buy out the crossing and the mad moon before the patch. Based on all public available information, nothing indicated that anything significant would happen to these two items that would affect their price. Yet they skyrocketed one day before the patch. Huh huh.

You know, I’ll give you another theory. It’s funny, because one of the ascended weapons that came with the 3 September patch was named after it. It’s called “Occam’s Razor”. The simplest possible theoretical explanation for existing data is usually the correct one. I submit to you, based on all publicly available information, that the OP offers exactly that.

Going back the above example of the guy holding a gun in his hand at the time of the murder: all I want, and the OP wants, is for Anet to look at the security camera, and check for fingerprints. Because this case screams murder.

the crossing and the mad moon are skins and as it where stated that mf items would be taken off tp and made account bound then if you dont had a “the crossing” or “the mad moon” and you wanted the skins you would likely buy it and pay alot more then what you else would in the belief that you would not be able to get it anymore or atleast not into Halloween, and that could very well be the reason why the prices jumped at the last day before the patch, ofc it could also be inside tradeing.

Korsbaek.9803:

the crossing and the mad moon are skins and as it where stated that mf items would be taken off tp and made account bound then if you dont had a “the crossing” or “the mad moon” and you wanted the skins you would likely buy it and pay alot more then what you else would in the belief that you would not be able to get it anymore or atleast not into Halloween, and that could very well be the reason why the prices jumped at the last day before the patch, ofc it could also be inside tradeing.

Official blog post, 31 August, two days before the buy-out of the Mad Moon and The Crossing:

“The only exceptions to this rule are in some high-end weapons that will still get the ability to select their stats, but will remain tradable.”

In order to avoid panic regarding these items, Arenanet had explicitly eased the community’s concerns in advance. They promised that these items would remain tradeable. So anyone that would have acted on the MF patch information from the 31 August blog post would also have the information I quoted above.

Buttercup.5871:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Yes, I can explain it to you, as well as other’s have already tried. I’m not going to beat the dead horse anymore.

Do yourself a favor. Look up the information on the basics of the Scientific Method please. You might have a life-changing epitome.

And no, btw, I did not fail “university”; I graduated with Honors.

Whut?

OK, I am a lawyer. I’ll concede that my knowledge of the Scientific Method is limited. What I do know, however, is that this Method is “a method or procedure that has characterized natural science since the 17th century, consisting in systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.”

The underlying feature of this method is being able to replicate an event.
Think about it. Can anyone of us replicate the event? I sure hope not. Because that’s exactly the problem!

“Your honor, I did not commit murder! Yes, I was there, yes I had a gun in my hand, and yes I hated the person, but, but, you can’t replicate the event, can you? Therefore, I must be acquitted.”

There is no logical explanation for the extreme rise in price of the mad moon and the crossing one day before the patch. No other magic find item showed a similar pattern. Additionally, we were explicitly told by Anet that high level Magic Find items would not be affected by the patch in that they would remain tradeable. So in fact, this goes against your theory people should buy out the crossing and the mad moon before the patch. Based on all public available information, nothing indicated that anything significant would happen to these two items that would affect their price. Yet they skyrocketed one day before the patch. Huh huh.

You know, I’ll give you another theory. It’s funny, because one of the ascended weapons that came with the 3 September patch was named after it. It’s called “Occam’s Razor”. The simplest possible theoretical explanation for existing data is usually the correct one. I submit to you, based on all publicly available information, that the OP offers exactly that.

Going back the above example of the guy holding a gun in his hand at the time of the murder: all I want, and the OP wants, is for Anet to look at the security camera, and check for fingerprints. Because this case screams murder.

I’m going to quote myself here to reply to this, since you missed it above:
“@Butter, You’re ignoring the bigger elephant in the room, which you even admit to. MF item speculation. Obviously, people are going to want Crossing and Moon because they are THE more popular ones…. which means the more lucrative investments to make!”

You’re also forgetting the one important fact of the Scientific Method I was trying to make. And that is, the conclusion is often theory. Did you catch that? Theory. Observed data results in theory until the theory can be proven as actual fact. Basic stuff Mr. Lawyer. You should know this.

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

You’re also forgetting the one important fact of the Scientific Method I was trying to make. And that is, the conclusion is often theory. Did you catch that? Theory. Observed data results in theory until the theory can be proven as actual fact. Basic stuff Mr. Lawyer. You should know this.

Mr. Lawyer here, reporting. Ever wonder why the standard of proof is “beyond reasonable doubt”? And not “beyond any doubt”? I’ll tell you: because usually, it’s impossible for a chamber to “prove” or to be “100% sure” that the crime charged occurred. Based on the evidence led at trial, it decides whether the Prosecution’s case was proven beyond reasonable doubt. In doing so, it weighs the available evidence, assesses the credibility of witnesses and looks at, amongst others, the reliablity of the documentary evidence admitted at trial. It’s not a matter of following a mathematical equasion, even if you would want it to be so.

@HA: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/comprehension. Please just stop posting. You’re seriously embarrassing yourself.

@Buttercup: No, I don’t wonder why because that’s why I hire lawyers when I need one. They do the wondering for me.

I can see you are very stubborn to this subject despite “reasonable” reasoning and this dead horse has become a skeleton due to so much beating and is doomed to become ash. Therefore, I bid you ado, and good luck with your “prosecution” in this case.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Anet employees themselves. I watched an intern that had the Anet tag selling names he had locked up once. He asked in guild chat if we wanted them then spammed LA. That may not be as bad as insider trading, but just shows what they will do and I wouldn’t put it past some of them.

Araziel.7201:

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Anet employees themselves. I watched an intern that had the Anet tag selling names he had locked up once. He asked in guild chat if we wanted them then spammed LA. That may not be as bad as insider trading, but just shows what they will do and I wouldn’t put it past some of them.

That seems pretty ludicrous so unless you have proof I’m gonna call BS.

Vol.5241:

Araziel.7201:

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Anet employees themselves. I watched an intern that had the Anet tag selling names he had locked up once. He asked in guild chat if we wanted them then spammed LA. That may not be as bad as insider trading, but just shows what they will do and I wouldn’t put it past some of them.

That seems pretty ludicrous so unless you have proof I’m gonna call BS.

I don’t care what YOU call it or do I feel the need to prove anything to you. If an Anet dev contacted me concerned about it I would be more than happy to give them the information. You I couldn’t care less about.

Vol.5241:

Araziel.7201:

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Anet employees themselves. I watched an intern that had the Anet tag selling names he had locked up once. He asked in guild chat if we wanted them then spammed LA. That may not be as bad as insider trading, but just shows what they will do and I wouldn’t put it past some of them.

That seems pretty ludicrous so unless you have proof I’m gonna call BS.

Asking for proof of ludicrous claims makes you a lawyer wannabe. Why can’t you just belieeeeeeeve?

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Vol.5241:

Araziel.7201:

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Anet employees themselves. I watched an intern that had the Anet tag selling names he had locked up once. He asked in guild chat if we wanted them then spammed LA. That may not be as bad as insider trading, but just shows what they will do and I wouldn’t put it past some of them.

That seems pretty ludicrous so unless you have proof I’m gonna call BS.

Asking for proof of ludicrous claims makes you a lawyer wannabe. Why can’t you just belieeeeeeeve?

Simply, the price/volume data pulled from ANET database is readily available, while this claim does not have anything to show.

To be honest, whatever. That is why people can make money in the market, because there are always fools to take the other side of the bet. Markets need fool to let other people make money.

You guys have failed to realized stamping out insider trading will benefit legitimate players, but I guess some people who benefit from asymmetrical information will complain.

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Vol.5241:

Araziel.7201:

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Anet employees themselves. I watched an intern that had the Anet tag selling names he had locked up once. He asked in guild chat if we wanted them then spammed LA. That may not be as bad as insider trading, but just shows what they will do and I wouldn’t put it past some of them.

That seems pretty ludicrous so unless you have proof I’m gonna call BS.

Asking for proof of ludicrous claims makes you a lawyer wannabe. Why can’t you just belieeeeeeeve?

More like a slobbering TMZ reporter putting his nose where it don’t belong. The details of that kind of information would go straight to Anet as it should if they felt they wanted to pursue it.

Just to add one final thing: ANET will likely not do anything about it. Only if it is an obvious case, else they will let it slip. It is simply not economical to enforce that type of oversight or they have the legal rights go through people’s personal communication to build a case.

Insider trading will exist and persist. End of the story.

Insider trading probably exists.

I’m having a hard time wondering why I should care though. Stuff like this happens all the time. I pretty frequently borrow my office tools to help friends fix stuff. It’s just a perk for working with the company anyways.

Besides, the recipe was disabled temporarily. It’ll come back on Halloween again. I have a hard time imagining whoever tried to buy up the supply will end up profiting.

Behellagh.1468:

It doesn’t solve anything, only let a few more people in on the secret.

It solves the problem of people who are not happy with others having the advantage, which is the entire point of this post.

Valdemas.4960:

I would like to see some sort of “Beta patch notes” where they list changes. Those may or may not make it into the game, but will give everyone equal footing.

This is the most sensible and easily implementable solution to tackle this obvious problem.

Comments made by some users which are neither helpful or constructive and generally opposed to the idea of equality of information between players would lead us to conclude one of 2 things;
1.) they are are extremely naive and unaware of these things happening, or don’t believe they are happening
or
2.) they are these dodgy players in question attempting to downplay the seriousness of the situation in order to ensure personal sustained profit through said methods (more likely)

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r36/DeLos23/DeadHorse.jpg

Vashoom.8512:

Behellagh.1468:

It doesn’t solve anything, only let a few more people in on the secret.

It solves the problem of people who are not happy with others having the advantage, which is the entire point of this post.

---

Valdemas.4960:

I would like to see some sort of “Beta patch notes” where they list changes. Those may or may not make it into the game, but will give everyone equal footing.

This is the most sensible and easily implementable solution to tackle this obvious problem.

---

Comments made by some users which are neither helpful or constructive and generally opposed to the idea of equality of information between players would lead us to conclude one of 2 things;
1.) they are are extremely naive and unaware of these things happening, or don’t believe they are happening
or
2.) they are these dodgy players in question attempting to downplay the seriousness of the situation in order to ensure personal sustained profit through said methods (more likely)

agreed. Either naive or beneficiaries.

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r36/DeLos23/DeadHorse.jpg

Ohhh, Ohhhh, we’re doing horses! Hey, I have one for you, too!

Buttercup.5871:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r36/DeLos23/DeadHorse.jpg

Ohhh, Ohhhh, we’re doing horses! Hey, I have one for you, too!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-k4x-_wriSyM/T9TVLUKTftI/AAAAAAAACYI/BMhMR0aqWPU/s1600/user6133_pic34477_1326494238.jpg

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Buttercup.5871:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r36/DeLos23/DeadHorse.jpg

Ohhh, Ohhhh, we’re doing horses! Hey, I have one for you, too!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-k4x-_wriSyM/T9TVLUKTftI/AAAAAAAACYI/BMhMR0aqWPU/s1600/user6133_pic34477_1326494238.jpg

Wow, that’s exactly the expression that came to mind when you called me stubborn! Amazing!

Buttercup.5871:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Buttercup.5871:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r36/DeLos23/DeadHorse.jpg

Ohhh, Ohhhh, we’re doing horses! Hey, I have one for you, too!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-k4x-_wriSyM/T9TVLUKTftI/AAAAAAAACYI/BMhMR0aqWPU/s1600/user6133_pic34477_1326494238.jpg

Wow, that’s exactly the expression that came to mind when you called me stubborn! Amazing!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bjy83y8ZNNI/Tqwu5xlI5nI/AAAAAAAAmPE/UqYlOqW_CNk/s1600/5031312940_copycat_xlarge.jpeg

You gonna start using the old “rubber/glue” zingers too?

Vashoom.8512:

Behellagh.1468:

It doesn’t solve anything, only let a few more people in on the secret.

It solves the problem of people who are not happy with others having the advantage, which is the entire point of this post.

No it doesn’t. How many would try out a open test server in the first few hours it’s up and divine what to invest or divest on the live market? If you’re not “in on the secret” in those first crucial few hours you are back will the rest of the masses wondering what happen to the market. The opportunity will be gone.

So when does the open test server go on line with the change? NA prime hours, EU, Oceania? Some slice of the player population will be a sleep or in work when this goes up and they won’t be able to get in on it.

All this will do is to increase the number of players taking advantage slightly compared to the full player base. Sure you may be able to deny absurd profits from these mythical “inside traders” but in reality all you want is to have the chance to be one of them. It doesn’t “fix” the problem.

As it is there aren’t a lot of players in closed beta (obvious due to the number of day one patches) and this does limit the damage done to the market.

Behellagh.1468:

Vashoom.8512:

Behellagh.1468:

It doesn’t solve anything, only let a few more people in on the secret.

It solves the problem of people who are not happy with others having the advantage, which is the entire point of this post.

No it doesn’t. How many would try out a open test server in the first few hours it’s up and figure out what to invest or divest on the live market? If you’re not the “in on the secret” in those first crucial few hours you are back will the rest of the masses wondering what happen to the market. The opportunity will be gone.

So when does the open test server go on line with the change? NA prime hours, EU, Oceania? Some slice of the player population will be a sleep or in work when this goes up and they won’t be able to get in on it.

All this will do is to increase the number of players taking advantage slightly compared to the full player base. Sure you may be able to deny absurd profits from these mythical “inside traders” but in reality all you want is to have the chance to be one of them. It doesn’t “fix” the problem.

It is more fair than few people knowing insider tips. Now everyone has a chance.

I don’t think anyone’s opposed to equal distribution of information, just that it’s impossible to achieve.

Hell Avenger.7021:

It is more fair than few people knowing insider tips. Now everyone has a chance.

No, not really. People who live in certain timezones will still hold a distinct advantage.

Behellagh.1468:

Vashoom.8512:

Behellagh.1468:

It doesn’t solve anything, only let a few more people in on the secret.

It solves the problem of people who are not happy with others having the advantage, which is the entire point of this post.

No it doesn’t. How many would try out a open test server in the first few hours it’s up and figure out what to invest or divest on the live market? If you’re not the “in on the secret” in those first crucial few hours you are back will the rest of the masses wondering what happen to the market. The opportunity will be gone.

So when does the open test server go on line with the change? NA prime hours, EU, Oceania? Some slice of the player population will be a sleep or in work when this goes up and they won’t be able to get in on it.

All this will do is to increase the number of players taking advantage slightly compared to the full player base. Sure you may be able to deny absurd profits from these mythical “inside traders” but in reality all you want is to have the chance to be one of them. It doesn’t “fix” the problem.

Actually, you can walk it back even further. Without casting any diparaging implications on ANet personnel, stoping insider information has to start inside first. Development takes time, the longer the time to delivery the greater the odds for a knowledge leak (inadvertant or otherwise). It’s just the way things are. By the time it gets to a test server, or release notes, it’s far too late.

Prevention really isn’t feasible. Punishment is a suitable reaction. But recompensation and revesal of damage done isn’t usually viable.

Hell Avenger.7021:

It is more fair than few people knowing insider tips. Now everyone has a chance.

No they won’t, not everyone. It’s only everyone if everyone gets on the beta server at the same time and quickly divine what items will radically swing in price and then have the money to take advantage of that on the live market. And since it’s not everyone it’s only going to be a few, a greater few I grant you, to be the ones that will take advantage of this. The spike or dip will still occur, just several days sooner than if it went live.

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Buttercup.5871:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

Buttercup.5871:

Lonewolf Kai.3682:

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r36/DeLos23/DeadHorse.jpg

Ohhh, Ohhhh, we’re doing horses! Hey, I have one for you, too!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-k4x-_wriSyM/T9TVLUKTftI/AAAAAAAACYI/BMhMR0aqWPU/s1600/user6133_pic34477_1326494238.jpg

Wow, that’s exactly the expression that came to mind when you called me stubborn! Amazing!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bjy83y8ZNNI/Tqwu5xlI5nI/AAAAAAAAmPE/UqYlOqW_CNk/s1600/5031312940_copycat_xlarge.jpeg

You gonna start using the old “rubber/glue” zingers too?

Absolutely not. I will never contest that I am stubborn. Because I am. I have no problem with people saying it. I do have a problem with people saying it while implying that they are not in the same sentence.

I and others in this thread have tried to show you that your logic is fundamentally flawed. I looked at what you said, and responded to the core of what you were saying, but did so respectfully. You never responded to anything I said, or anyone else said, you just kept repeating your belief that absent a screenshot nothing is going and all can be explained by the introduction of the MF change – while every detail in this story screams inside trading. You purposefully ignore the most obvious, and zoom on details which people have tried to show you make no sense in the larger picture.
My problem, and accompanying change in tone, is when you decided it was necessary to include your opinion of me, rather than sticking to the object and purpose of this thread. In fact, you didn’t just do that to me, but you did that to nearly everyone in this thread, derailing the topic at every occasion. Which leaves me with in serious doubt whether you’re not simply trying to have it shut down by the moderators.

Interesting discussion.

I’d like to clarify a point I made in the OP…

What makes The Crossing (and the very few items in the same situation) unique and high value was not the MF change and subsequent stat changing capability. That is not a value add as you can simply transmute the skin to anything (well, the value is very low anyway).

The real value add after the patch was that they would no longer be craftable.

Read it again. There will be no new supply to the market to meet demand.

That is true value right there and the reason why someone would want to buy up these limited items.

The often quoted statement below does not mention the inability to make the items any longer. There was no pre-patch mention of such a limitation on those items.

“The only exceptions to this rule are in some high-end weapons that will still get the ability to select their stats, but will remain tradable.”

Having the ability to control the only remaining supply of an item (at least for a month or so until Halloween assuming they are re-released and are not BLC rip off fodder) is now controlled by whoever bought them up. They set the price by controlling availability. Simple as that. That is why they would do it and that is the reasoning for why it could only be insider trading. Conspiracy? Slightly. But, that does not diminish the logical conclusion that someone knew this was coming pre-patch and acted on it. There really was no way possible to speculate that the items would no longer be able to be made. In fact, the opposite is true given how Anet kept pushing not to worry about MF stuff as it would simply change stats and “…will remain tradable”. I guess, technically, The Crossing is still tradable; however, no more can be made to trade.

Someone now controls the market for The Crossing based on information they had that no one else had access to.

ThePedroKid.2580:

The real value add after the patch was that they would no longer be craftable.

Read it again. There will be no new supply to the market to meet demand.

That is true value right there and the reason why someone would want to buy up these limited items.

Right on the Money.

Can’t say more, too busy reading the leaked patch notes on reddit right now. They show the exact same format as the leaked patch notes from last time – which proved to be entirely accurate then, too.

Buttercup.5871:

So when you “looked at the graph”, did you disable the buy and sell listing price? Because your info ignores the elephant in the room. At all the dates you indicate, the price is hovering around 155-161g. As usual. The day before the patch, it jumped to 200g, a price point it had never reached before, and which cannot be explained by the mere magic find changes. If you can whip out 160g for a staff, the stats on it are pretty much irrelevant.

The only public info given, on 31 August in the official blog post, was:

“The only exceptions to this rule are in some high-end weapons that will still get the ability to select their stats, but will remain tradable.”

So did immobulus, infinite light, or any other high end MF weapon get bought up the day before the patch, and shot up in price? No. Just the crossing and the mad moon, the latter of which shows identical activity from 1-2 September as the crossing. (Apparently, arachnophobia wasn’t that interesting; I don’t like it much either, but that’s beside the point).

I don’t use spidey I use GWtrade(same api as spidey) it doesn’t have the avg sell and all the extra lines just buy, sell, supply, demand the stuff that matters.

I just posted the supply as the OP stated someone bought them all up and that the crossing doesn’t sell that fast. I did not expand on anything else. I didn’t look at made moon I checked arachnophobia didn’t see any movement there. I checked infinite light no movement there (though it’s hard to flip something that expensive).

Just sticking with the crossing if you look at around the 22 of august it does start selling pretty often. I don’t know though if you buy the crossing or any of the highend mf weapons do they automatically become accountbound/soulbound as soon as you receive them?

ThePedroKid.2580:

Someone now controls the market for The Crossing based on information they had that no one else had access to.

For one month.

The removal from the crafting menu has nothing to do with Magic Find, it’s because they are reconfiguring the halloween themed items and this was a convenient time to disable them.

I don’t care one way or the other about whether people have access to inside info. This isn’t the stock market, and millions of dollars won’t change hands because of this info. It’s play money.

I’m sure Anet cares about the integrity of their employees and testers, and if you have solid info about this then send it to them. This is not the kind of thing they are going to discuss in public, however.

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Whats the weather like in Conspiracy Theory Land?

Let me relate some IRL things to your nonsense that you keep spewing about how the skeptics need to be the bearer of proof and how every time someone says anything about what is going on in the TP is some wild, crazy and elaborate conspiracy theory.

First off, thousands of people go to jail every year in this country based off circumstantial evidence.

Remember back in the 50’s when tons of people were claiming that the CIA was secretly involved in overthrowing the regime in Iran? Probably not, but remember when all the people that claimed that were “crazy”? Probably not again. But, guess what, they finally admitted it. Those " crazy" folks apparently just made a lucky guess.

Remember when the government was secretly creating a nuclear weapon that eventually ended up being dropped in Japan? Remember when those same “crazy” nutjobs were all claiming the government was doing it? Probably not, but hey I guess they also didn’t have any video tape evidence as a smoking gun. But they were wrong right? Oh wait…..

I can go on if you wish with many many more examples. Now, of course, this is far more extreme than some video game insider trading “theory”, but don’t act like just because someone can’t show video tape evidence, that it isn’t happening.

cranked.3812:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

Whats the weather like in Conspiracy Theory Land?

Let me relate some IRL things to your nonsense that you keep spewing about how the skeptics need to be the bearer of proof and how every time someone says anything about what is going on in the TP is some wild, crazy and elaborate conspiracy theory.

First off, thousands of people go to jail every year in this country based off circumstantial evidence.

Remember back in the 50’s when tons of people were claiming that the CIA was secretly involved in overthrowing the regime in Iran? Probably not, but remember when all the people that claimed that were “crazy”? Probably not again. But, guess what, they finally admitted it. Those " crazy" folks apparently just made a lucky guess.

Remember when the government was secretly creating a nuclear weapon that eventually ended up being dropped in Japan? Remember when those same “crazy” nutjobs were all claiming the government was doing it? Probably not, but hey I guess they also didn’t have any video tape evidence as a smoking gun. But they were wrong right? Oh wait…..

I can go on if you wish with many many more examples. Now, of course, this is far more extreme than some video game insider trading “theory”, but don’t act like just because someone can’t show video tape evidence, that it isn’t happening.

first off there is 2 diffrences in what your relating to compared to what is happening/happened in gw2.

first is that how much of the info got leaked by the other side of the war?
you do know that there is something called a spy that has to job to garther importent info from the enemy and the once gotten the info then eighter uses it to make there own weapon or try stopping there progress of what it is and we dont have that in gw2.

seconed there is a easy theory that invalves forsight and looking at what anet said about mf and all makeing it easy to deduct that all magic find recipce in the mf will get locked for some time if not permently and that will make some buy it for themself and some will maybe take the gamble for it to being one of the weapons that would not get account bound and given how it looks and all i understand why the people that belived it would not be account bound belived so.

i will not say that there is no insade tradeing tho i will say that the op is blowing it all out of preportions same are a few others.
as long as there is a theory that also fits without going to the extremes but still follow the rules that will most likely be the right one.