Guild Wars 2

Inflation is a big deal in GW2 as it destroys the chance of “not so active” players to ever achieve something great. Of course, hard work should be rewarded and legendaries should never be for free or easy to acquire. But have you seen precursor prices? Don’t get me wrong, I wear a full T3-cultural armor, have nearly every color in game and a 150g staff skin etc. I’m fine, I totally am. But have you ever thought about why precursor prices and basicly all other prices are going up and up? It’s called inflation – your money is losing worth every single day. And this inflation is based on exploiting and botters.

Let’s have a look at a casual normal player spending 2-3hours per day on GW2. If he’s doing some instances and/or fractals, he might get up to 5-6g per day (let’s not talk about how boring instances and/or fractals are in the long term). By having a look on the prices and how they evolve, that’s no earnings. This player is playing for the inflationary compensation. He’ll nearly never be able to get a legendary if he doesn’t exploit.

ArenaNet, why don’t you ban those precursor-lvl65-grawl-exploiters? Why don’t you delete those items? Why don’t you bind legendaries on account? Why don’t you do something about the market you created and that’s falling into pieces?

If you don’t care about inflation and such, I’m fine. But if you do, do something before it’s to late – time’s running.

I don’t think it’s inflation. John Smith may know more about inflation, but if I recall, inflation is calculated with the Consumer Price Index in mind – it considers hundreds of items. I don’t think it’s fair to judge inflation on a single item, let alone one that is not a commodity.

I think it’s fair to judge inflation on the items that are worth to think about in end game. Maybe the precursor example is a bit limiting, but it’s the best example for what i meant to say

Hi, I’m the casual you mentioned, 2-3 hours per day, doing some dungones and fractals… and I can say that 5-6g per day is a very very very optimistic view… I’m going for Twilight, I have almost finished everything except for Dusk, just yesterday got my 100th onyx lodestone. I just need some more ectos, some T6 mats for the gift of magic, and the gold for the icy runestones.

I’m obviusly concerned about the precursor. I got about 100 gold some time ago, most of it was used for the 77 clovers. I think I have something between 40-50 gold now, after 5 months playing. So if I assume that I can make roughly 50 gold/month, the precursor seems impossible to buy.

On the other hand, I have the Mystic forge. In these 5 months, I got 8 rare GS that I dropped in the MF, I got 1 exo GS and another rare GS from them. I’ve been able to save 4 Exo GS (I’m using two of them, so I cannot dump them on the MF yet), and 2 rare GS. For same reason, I cannot get GS dropped from anywhere, so I will have to stick to GS from dungeon tokens or drops. I had enough of randomnes while crafting the clovers, so I won’t focus on the MF for Dusk… I will use it if it happens that somehow I got 4 GS of the same type, or if I can find a specific recipe with a higher chance to produce a precursor.

So, this looks impossible, but since I’m still having fun with the game, I’ll keep playing and trying to get my legendary. I may give up in the future, but at the rate these guys produces new content, I highly doubt so. If you play only for the legendary, the hardest item to get in the game, then you will just burnout.

Now, regarding the inflation, I will use exactly the same method as many used before in GW1. Since I don’t really need gold, except for the icy runestones, I’ll invest it in items whose value increases over time. Ectos, Cores and Lodestones; it’s as easy as that. No need to play the TP, or grind; just play and enjoy.

Hey Apolyon, thanks for your statement about casuality and legendaries. 5-6g per day was a rough estimation as I don’t know about that for sure. I thought it was a realistic value, but maybe it’s lower.

What you said about your gold-tactics is absolutely right. Gold’s value will decrease due to inflation while items’ values will increase/keep up with the “real” value that’s behind it. I think that’s the best option you have: invest your money.

Although I personally think that not banning exploiters, waiting to long with botters etc. is the worst decision ArenaNet could have done in such an open, non-restricted market.

Noerknhar.3826:

I think it’s fair to judge inflation on the items that are worth to think about in end game. Maybe the precursor example is a bit limiting, but it’s the best example for what i meant to say

That’s demand for a specific item, which in this game, is going to go up over time.

It’s like trying to buy Singing Bird Pistols, which are extremely rare. As the years go buy, the demand for that may grow as well as the asking price. It’s ridiculous to look at that item and judge economy inflation on it. You’ll come up with something like 20% inflation.

Noerknhar.3826:

I think it’s fair to judge inflation on the items that are worth to think about in end game. Maybe the precursor example is a bit limiting, but it’s the best example for what i meant to say

Precursors are a high demand-low supply item. The demand is rising steadily as more and more people find a legendary the only long term achievement they hace to look forward to.
Which leaves them with two options for attaining the precursor. Play the mystic forge lottery or buy the pre. Since the lottery is as the name implies a lottery most people play it save and invest a fix amount of money for a preditable result.

And we only have quest rewards, de rewards and vendor sales in means to add to the inflation. Those are always only small amounts. On the other hand you have the 15% tp fee to take money out of the economy.
If you regard those factors you can never come up with the afore mentioned 20% inflation rate vol criticzed as well

As far as we know, those “exploiters” just used a MF recipe that had a higher chance to produce a a precursor, and with the lack of knowledge about precursors it looked like a valid way for producing precursors. So I wouldn’t categorize them as exploiters, or at least I will have them in a different category than those who abused the snow flake recipe. Regarding the precursors produced this way, I have mixed feelings about this… If they are sold, the price drops… if the are not sold, the price increases, but this will happen anyway, since they are highly demanded items. Just look at the buy orders.

Actually, the fact that there are specific recipes for the MF may be a hint that there may be some recipes with higher chance of producing a precursor but nobody have found them yet (or found but not made public). I really hope that this is the case.

With botters, I don’t really now about the technical details, I’ve seen them myself, and it is pretty easy to spot them by observation. There were some massive bans in the past, and I’m pretty sure that ANet will keep banning them.

Also, I’ll use this thread to share my thoughts about the so mentioned market manipulators. I don’t play the TP myself, but I have a bit of knowledge of economics, and I’m pretty sure that for effectively manipulating a market, you need to keep the prices going up and down all the time. If the prices are always up, you cannot buy cheap, thus you cannot really make a profit from it. It is true that you may find some gaps in the prices that allows for a hugh profit in shor time, for example if you find an item with sell orders under 100 gold, and then the next order is for 300 gold, then you can take a risk here and buy them and resell them, but then there may be hundreds or people waiting for this price increase and then undercut you, so there is always some risk involved.

There once was a recipe for the mystic forge where you were able to dump 2 lvl65 weapons and 2 yellow lvl80s to guaranteed get a precursor. People used that a lot, there are screenshots on the internet with guys having 700+ gold and a full inventory of precursors. While some of those may be faked you were able to notice that a lot of those screenshots were published at a specific time which points towards a real possibility. ArenaNet didn’t ban them and also didn’t delete the items. While more items will lower the prices, prices didn’t drop. Why? Because those people won’t sell 100 precursors within a short time as it would make them look suspicious.

Botters generated a lot of money that is around now because of people who actually bought it. Inflation in online games will occur if more money is generated than spent on NPCs. What do you pay NPCs for? Repairing your gear, teleporting somewhere or by buying cultural armor pieces. This is a very small portion of the money that has been generated and that is currently generated that “leaves the system” in this way. We thus will have and already have inflation that will become worse, but this is another point.

tl;dr: to much money in the system, precursors were cheap as hell for exploiters. Normal players will never get a legendary as the precursor blocks them from getting one.

Noerknhar.3826:

There once was a recipe for the mystic forge where you were able to dump 2 lvl65 weapons and 2 yellow lvl80s to guaranteed get a precursor. People used that a lot, there are screenshots on the internet with guys having 700+ gold and a full inventory of precursors. While some of those may be faked you were able to notice that a lot of those screenshots were published at a specific time which points towards a real possibility. ArenaNet didn’t ban them and also didn’t delete the items. While more items will lower the prices, prices didn’t drop. Why? Because those people won’t sell 100 precursors within a short time as it would make them look suspicious.

Botters generated a lot of money that is around now because of people who actually bought it. Inflation in online games will occur if more money is generated than spent on NPCs. What do you pay NPCs for? Repairing your gear, teleporting somewhere or by buying cultural armor pieces. This is a very small portion of the money that has been generated and that is currently generated that “leaves the system” in this way. We thus will have and already have inflation that will become worse, but this is another point.

tl;dr: to much money in the system, precursors were cheap as hell for exploiters. Normal players will never get a legendary as the precursor blocks them from getting one.

I really hope Anet would do something if the above was true, heck they banned people for exploiting a snowflake.

So… Game starts at 0 money for everyone….

How do you NOT expect inflation for the first 1-2 years?

So people find a way to get top-demanded items…and use it.
How could you NOT expect them to do otherwise?
How could A-Net justify punishing them? ‘They uh… Found something worth making in the forge and uh… Made them in quantity —Permaban!’ Get real.

Admit it, if you knew about the early game precursor recipes, you’d still have several in inventory, and be rich… And be wondering why the heck everyone hates you for having found a way to wealth so early.

Sheesh. Drop the jealousy please.

@Noerknhar – watch: in 2-3 years the existing legendaries will be so commonplace as to be boring. Precursors will sell for just a couple times more than any other exotic item. Patience will bring them to you cheaply.

I keep hearing how legendaries are supposed to show a players accomplishments in the game and not the market… Does anyone have an anet quote for this, or is it just popular hype?

Yamagawa.5941:

So… Game starts at 0 money for everyone….

How do you NOT expect inflation for the first 1-2 years?

So people find a way to get top-demanded items…and use it.
How could you NOT expect them to do otherwise?
How could A-Net justify punishing them? ‘They uh… Found something worth making in the forge and uh… Made them in quantity —Permaban!’ Get real.

Admit it, if you knew about the early game precursor recipes, you’d still have several in inventory, and be rich… And be wondering why the heck everyone hates you for having found a way to wealth so early.

Sheesh. Drop the jealousy please.

@Noerknhar – watch: in 2-3 years the existing legendaries will be so commonplace as to be boring. Precursors will sell for just a couple times more than any other exotic item. Patience will bring them to you cheaply.

I keep hearing how legendaries are supposed to show a players accomplishments in the game and not the market… Does anyone have an anet quote for this, or is it just popular hype?

I think it’s reasonable to expect inflation, the question is how much? I just compared the base level crafting components (no insignias, planks, etc) from December 18 to today and the average price has risen 60%. The greatest increase being in Engraved Totems (from 92c to 5s20c) and the biggest decrease in Onyx shards (from 35s to 8s).

I think it’s reasonable to be somewhat concerned about the market right now. Of course, this may all blow over and be a momentary price spike caused by the latest patch.

I keep hearing how legendaries are supposed to show a players accomplishments in the game and not the market… Does anyone have an anet quote for this, or is it just popular hype?

I can’t remember where, but it has been said.

Noerknhar.3826:

I think it’s fair to judge inflation on the items that are worth to think about in end game. Maybe the precursor example is a bit limiting, but it’s the best example for what i meant to say

You would be entirely incorrect in an economic standpoint.

Inflation is measured by the price levels of goods people buy regularly, not the price tags on private jets or other “endgame” goods people buy when they’re extremely wealthy.

I would think our essential endgame currency are the ectoplasms, required in every exotic recipie and used by the stack-full for many, many endgame tasks.

They are creeping up, but not exactly explosively.

You are lucky to make 2-3/day if that.
Even now they “increased drops” lol ya right in the open world it is still horrifically bad and a plinx run will net you maybe a gold per hour if that.
Dungeons still a better way to go.

If you really wanted to have a discussion about inflation a Consumer Price Index would need to be created and a history of it would need to be tracked. I assume that those who handle the economic aspects of the game have one or more CPIs which they track enabling them to monitor any potential inflation.
When creating a CPI you would want to base it around the most frequently bought goods – ore, wood, cooking ingredients, etc. Ideally you’d make a choice of a cross selection of materials across all crafting professions based on use with a preference for those goods used by multiple professions.
Thus when setting the price of new items obtained with new currencies (like laurels), they have the ability to predict the rate at which additional goods are introduced to the economy and model the impact of these additional goods on the current price thereby limiting the affect of inflation due to players having more money due to playing the game for a longer period.
So until I see CPI charts it’s hard to have a legitimate discussion about inflation. And as already stated, luxury goods are a horrible indicator the economic health.

It is possible to create a CPI right now.

The data is availible at gw2spidy.

Dear John,

while I appreciate that you jumped in our discussion, I am a bit disappointed that your only comment was about the definition of inflation. If you had a look at the completed transactions for t5/t6 materials, ectos, bufffood and ingredients in the most common/most used bufffoods, you’d noticed that those prices went up by a lot in the last 4-8 weeks. I think ‘inflation’ kind of is the right word to describe such a situation.

Even if not, I don’t want to discuss the definition of a word. I want to discuss the main point of my first post in this thread: (casual) players don’t really earn money as prices go up and up. They will NEVER get a legendary as the precursor is the blocking factor.
Those two points are what i wanted to discuss.

Ah and by the way: I think that orders are a good indicator for inflation and that there actually is no need to view the completed transactions as orders are always “close around” completed transaction prices. gw2spidy’s data is the best available and it’s not bad.

I totally agree Noerknhar, as a new player myself it’s inconceivable I will ever be able to afford a Legendary because I wasn’t able to exploit my way to large amounts of gold or abuse the MF to get easy pre-cursors: I don’t ‘play the TP’ and the game gives no way of obtaining the obscene amounts of gold those who have stocks of these must-have items demand and can get.

It seems to me there’s a group of players with enough gold (some ill-gotten) who are largely trading among themselves, while players like me can only look at and watch from outside.

@John Smith: I’m disappointed in your reply to his post, you clearly don’t want to discuss this issue, there wasn’t a hint of ‘trolling’ in his post.

Kraggy.4169:

I totally agree Noerknhar, as a new player myself it’s inconceivable I will ever be able to afford a Legendary because I wasn’t able to exploit my way to large amounts of gold or abuse the MF to get easy pre-cursors.

Ok. full stop, followed by sanity check.

The ability for the price of precursors to rise is not infinite. The ability to make gold IS infinite over time. The argument that one rate will not overtake the other is flatly untrue. There comes a point (and for several precursors I’d say we’ve already reached that point) where the average cost of creating a precursor via the Mystic Forge is less than the asking price of the item. At that point you are not buying the precursor anymore – you are buying someone else’s RISK.

As I’ve said elsewhere there are only two possible conditions:

• The price being asked is a reasonable reflection of the risk involved, and you should expect to pay it.

Or

• The price is greater than the risk it represents, and YOU SHOULD MAKE YOUR OWN DANG PECURSOR with that money.

Thats It. The end. If you are considering paying for it, you fear the risk. If you are not considering paying for it, you need to start spending that coin making your own attempts. Starting pretty much right away as general inflation is slowly raising the cost of the items needed to make attempts.

We have a third alternative that may appeal to the truely risk adverse, and that is to wait for ANet to step in and change the rules of the game. But right now the rules are pretty stark and clear. Buy one, or make one, but quit moaning that someone else has put a largely reasonable price tag on your FEAR.

Noerknhar.3826:

Excuse me? If I wasn’t able to clarify my point, just tell me. Maybe it’s because it’s early in the morning over here and I’m right at my first coffee for today.

I think you got him to say your right…. in a weird way…

guardian.6489:

Noerknhar.3826:

Excuse me? If I wasn’t able to clarify my point, just tell me. Maybe it’s because it’s early in the morning over here and I’m right at my first coffee for today.

I think you got him to say your right…. in a weird way…

I think you’re correct. I believe John Smith knows these things, but that there’s nothing he can do about them.

Nike.2631:

Ok. full stop, followed by sanity check.

The ability for the price of precursors to rise is not infinite. The ability to make gold IS infinite over time. The argument that one rate will not overtake the other is flatly untrue. There comes a point (and for several precursors I’d say we’ve already reached that point) where the average cost of creating a precursor via the Mystic Forge is less than the asking price of the item.

Of course. What you did not include in your reasoning however is that the average price to craft a precursor is also rising.

Noerknhar.3826:

Dear John,

while I appreciate that you jumped in our discussion, I am a bit disappointed that your only comment was about the definition of inflation. If you had a look at the completed transactions for t5/t6 materials, ectos, bufffood and ingredients in the most common/most used bufffoods, you’d noticed that those prices went up by a lot in the last 4-8 weeks. I think ‘inflation’ kind of is the right word to describe such a situation.

Even if not, I don’t want to discuss the definition of a word. I want to discuss the main point of my first post in this thread: (casual) players don’t really earn money as prices go up and up. They will NEVER get a legendary as the precursor is the blocking factor.
Those two points are what i wanted to discuss.

Ah and by the way: I think that orders are a good indicator for inflation and that there actually is no need to view the completed transactions as orders are always “close around” completed transaction prices. gw2spidy’s data is the best available and it’s not bad.

Dear Noerknhar,

casual players were never ever meant to get a legendary.

Best Regards.
Iruwen

Iruwen.3164:

Noerknhar.3826:

Dear John,

while I appreciate that you jumped in our discussion, I am a bit disappointed that your only comment was about the definition of inflation. If you had a look at the completed transactions for t5/t6 materials, ectos, bufffood and ingredients in the most common/most used bufffoods, you’d noticed that those prices went up by a lot in the last 4-8 weeks. I think ‘inflation’ kind of is the right word to describe such a situation.

Even if not, I don’t want to discuss the definition of a word. I want to discuss the main point of my first post in this thread: (casual) players don’t really earn money as prices go up and up. They will NEVER get a legendary as the precursor is the blocking factor.
Those two points are what i wanted to discuss.

Ah and by the way: I think that orders are a good indicator for inflation and that there actually is no need to view the completed transactions as orders are always “close around” completed transaction prices. gw2spidy’s data is the best available and it’s not bad.

Dear Noerknhar,

casual players were never ever meant to get a legendary.

Best Regards.
Iruwen

And yet, this text suggests that anybody could acquire one:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/my-legend-grows-forging-your-first-legendary-weapon/

… as if following your dream and working hard are enough to fulfil your ambitions. As in life, it’s not. You need a trunkload of fortune, too.

The reason for the spike in prices for t6 mats is the loot nerf patch of Nov 15th. Anet have just recently partially remedied this with bag drops but the supply decreased a lot at a time when more players were introduced to the game. I also believe that we need a new method of gaining ecto’s apart from salvage- no rares means no ectos. I’m a casual player who mostly does dailies, some map completion and dragons and atm a legendary is just a pipedream. At least the Feb monthly ‘encourages’ me to do dungeons :p

Iruwen.3164:

Noerknhar.3826:

Dear John,

while I appreciate that you jumped in our discussion, I am a bit disappointed that your only comment was about the definition of inflation. If you had a look at the completed transactions for t5/t6 materials, ectos, bufffood and ingredients in the most common/most used bufffoods, you’d noticed that those prices went up by a lot in the last 4-8 weeks. I think ‘inflation’ kind of is the right word to describe such a situation.

Even if not, I don’t want to discuss the definition of a word. I want to discuss the main point of my first post in this thread: (casual) players don’t really earn money as prices go up and up. They will NEVER get a legendary as the precursor is the blocking factor.
Those two points are what i wanted to discuss.

Ah and by the way: I think that orders are a good indicator for inflation and that there actually is no need to view the completed transactions as orders are always “close around” completed transaction prices. gw2spidy’s data is the best available and it’s not bad.

Dear Noerknhar,

casual players were never ever meant to get a legendary.

Best Regards.
Iruwen

Okay big fails here, I’m a perfect example to put this to, I play currently 2-3 hrs 5 days a week maybe squeeze in about 6-8hr sat-sun, I have banked over 3/4s of the ledgendary items purely by saving them up, I have the gold to purchase a legendary and or precursor straight off the TP, in my eyes this is an utter waste of game-play as there’s no achievement in buying your way through life. How ever buying the precursor seems the only efficient way of getting it.

I on the other hand will NOT buy any of the precursors or even try to flip or hold on to them, due to the fact that it messes with everyone else who wants/needs them. The prices are far too extreme, yes yes demand screams for higher price but its ludicrous.

I would love to make a vote so that no one even buys or makes orders on the precursors for a short period (though this will never happen), Just like a one day fuel strike.

This will reduce demand and so will reduce the price. So even the most casual of casual players can even work towards a not so never ending battle of price increases.
Though this would have to be done frequently to work, which also will never happen.

Oh yeah inflation…….. its partly inflation, but the most part is people using their money to buyout items to put them up to higher prices to make profits.

Astralporing.1957:

Nike.2631:

Ok. full stop, followed by sanity check.

The ability for the price of precursors to rise is not infinite. The ability to make gold IS infinite over time. The argument that one rate will not overtake the other is flatly untrue. There comes a point (and for several precursors I’d say we’ve already reached that point) where the average cost of creating a precursor via the Mystic Forge is less than the asking price of the item.

Of course. What you did not include in your reasoning however is that the average price to craft a precursor is also rising.

Other than the minor, nay- triffling, detail that I said EXACTLY THAT in my post.

Possibly you didn’t read that far .

The difference being that people post “hmm, that’s interesting” threads about ecto prices going up (and occasionally down) rather than flipping the kitten out they way they do over precurssors jumping 200g once a week. Oricalcum prices were falling until this patch, and lumber is often available for a copper over vendor, so I think those manufacturing costs are at worst rising at little more than the true inflation of this game.

Svarty.8019:

And yet, this text suggests that anybody could acquire one:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/my-legend-grows-forging-your-first-legendary-weapon/

… as if following your dream and working hard are enough to fulfil your ambitions. As in life, it’s not. You need a trunkload of fortune, too.

Anybody can get a legendary. They never said “casual players can play casually and get a legendary playing 5 hours a week”.

By all means you can get a legendary, you just have to change your playstyle and get lucky.

Anybody can win the lottery by buying lottery tickets, it doesn’t mean every single person in the world who buys 1 lottery ticket a month will win.

The problem is too much gold is being injected through farming. Instead they should replace the 26 silver with an item or mats instead. That way no new gold is printed.

John Smith.4610:

I feel like I’m getting trolled here. Good day sir.

That you would write off a question about the concern of prices rising around high quality materials that casual players (and even players with more committed time investments) and the amount of money generated staying the same as trolling is rather rude.

It seems like there is a communication error somewhere. So let me simplify it because all the discussions about inflation, price manipulation are not addressing what has been a core issue central to all of these.

Months ago (before the Karka event) it was said by Anet representatives, that they were looking into what was considered extremely high prices for materials for the legendary. A little while afterwards, the Karka event happened and precursors went down dramatically. Not even a month later the prices rose again to where they were and continued rising to the point that they are now.

Money making has not changed, in fact if anything the most profitable game play related methods of making money were nerfed. The only way to obtain enough money for the materials required for the path to a legendary is to put thousands of hours into farming and get lucky (RNG), or to play the Trading Post.

This seems contrary to the stance and comments made surrounding the Karka event. It has been months since now, is this situation (path to Legendary) where Anet wants it for the general player? I realize that commenting on what could come may influence the (oh so serious) gaming market, but saying nothing is beginning to become infuriating. It feels as if (in this area) Anet has changed their mind, and are encouraging a contrary direction they took in November.

So point blank, can we expect changes in favor of decreasing high material prices? (without having to rely on bots becoming smarter and driving down prices again)

Noerknhar.3826:

Dear John,

while I appreciate that you jumped in our discussion, I am a bit disappointed that your only comment was about the definition of inflation. If you had a look at the completed transactions for t5/t6 materials, ectos, bufffood and ingredients in the most common/most used bufffoods, you’d noticed that those prices went up by a lot in the last 4-8 weeks. I think ‘inflation’ kind of is the right word to describe such a situation.

Even if not, I don’t want to discuss the definition of a word. I want to discuss the main point of my first post in this thread: (casual) players don’t really earn money as prices go up and up. They will NEVER get a legendary as the precursor is the blocking factor.
Those two points are what i wanted to discuss.

Ah and by the way: I think that orders are a good indicator for inflation and that there actually is no need to view the completed transactions as orders are always “close around” completed transaction prices. gw2spidy’s data is the best available and it’s not bad.

why would they need a legendary if they are casual, whats the point? even if the prices were what they were a few months past, they would never get them anyways. Casuals playthe game for fun, legendaries are design for the hardcore group of players. A causal that decides to work for a legendary can not be consider a causal anymore.

John Smith.4610:

I said I was being trolled because the points in the first and third paragraph have been brought up and answered in other threads…several times. I’ve made my points on both inflation and GW2spidy and measuring value. I’ve not only specifically told you how you are incorrect, I’ve provided data for it.

I am confused.

I want to discuss the main point of my first post in this thread: (casual) players don’t really earn money as prices go up and up.

What am I doing wrong then? I’m not earning any more money than I was 3 months ago, but the precursors are still going up. Apparently I am misunderstanding somewhere or again, doing something wrong. I’m not casual either, I have ~1200 hours invested in the game, but I’m confused how this point is inaccurate.

Those items are in shorter supply, or they are more highly demanded, or a combination of the two, and people with the money to pay those prices are paying those prices. That’s all the market cares about. If you want them at a lower price, either get them when the supply is high or when demand is low. Playing the market is all about predicting how those two concepts will balance at any given time and capitalizing on it.

As far as precursors go, the statistical likelihood of getting one from the MF for anything short of 600g is pretty slim according to all the data people have collected thus far. Therefore, a price above 600g for any of them doesn’t surprise me assuming people want that particular legendary. If someone is willing to spend 800g on one, then that’s what it’s worth at that moment. That you didn’t, or couldn’t, buy when they were cheaper (lower demand / higher supply) is unfortunate. The best you can hope for is something that increases supply (ie. Karka event) or something that lowers market demand (ie. Precursor Scavenger Hunt would mean you could get your own Soulbound precursor or something by some other means).

BobbyT.7192:

why would they need a legendary if they are casual, whats the point? even if the prices were what they were a few months past, they would never get them anyways. Casuals playthe game for fun, legendaries are design for the hardcore group of players. A causal that decides to work for a legendary can not be consider a causal anymore.

I beg to differ. Mind you that has nothing to do with the TP, I see the TP as a potential shortcut – for a price obviously. The rest (high prices for precursors and the legendary weapons etc) and how/if that affects anything is another story.

I’ve never believed that “only 5% of the players are supposed to” obtain a legendary. Whether or not this is the number of players that realisticly will obtain one is again another story and will depend on different factors.

In closing I would like to point out the newly introduced changes in regards to laurels and the box for karma where you will find some ingredients for legendary weapons as well (without having to directly “grind” for them, aka kill 1million elementals) and the following quote found under the link below.

“The list of rewards will continue to grow and expand as we add content to the game, but we’re committed to the philosophy that you should be able to get the most powerful rewards simply by playing the game the way you want.”

https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/new-rewards-and-the-achievements-system/

(edit only for speleing)

John Smith.4610:

This is correct, you cannot measure inflation by luxury goods, or by a single good, or by the several other assumptions you’re making (sell orders represent sales?).

Right, you can’t measure inflation of the overall economy by looking at luxury goods, but you can measure the inflation of those luxury goods. Forbes tracks the consumer price index, and the price index of luxury goods seperately, they call it the cost of living extremely well index.

It’s measures the cost increase of items that are exclusive to the super rich compared to the increase in their wealth. I believe that’s what we’re seeing in the precursor and legendary markets.

So you can measure inflation based on luxury goods. Especially when those goods are the only goods worth going to the TP for. Because that’s the only place you can get them. Everything that isn’t a luxury good is easy enough to obtain outside the TP.

Maybe I’m wrong but that’s how I feel about it. The payoff of every gaming style in GW2 is heavily monitored and controlled except making money off the TP. Why is there no DR for trading goods? Like an ever increasing tax. When crafters find a good recipe to turn money it gets nerfed, they’re taking gold out of the economy too, they have to sell their goods on the TP with the 15% tax and they have to buy mats from vendors. That’s more of a gold sink than the traders pay, but they get hit hard.

Dungeon runners get DR and sink their money into repair costs and waypoints and eat food. The amount of wealth they can bring in is strictly regulated. Harvesters and mob farmers too. I know we’re not supposed to be farming mobs for mats, but how else are we supposed to get those mats? We’re supposed to buy them off the trading post. How is that supposed to give anybody a feeling of accomplishment. I went out and adventured and fought to get these mats I needed to craft this great armor/weapon for me and companions. Errr no, I sold a kitten-ton of porous bones and bought the stuff off the TP. Less than Epic.

John Smith.4610:

This is correct, you cannot measure inflation by luxury goods, or by a single good, or by the several other assumptions you’re making (sell orders represent sales?).

Is there enough data that the players get to see to even estimate inflation ?

Because, from what little I know, the volume of sales seems like it would be important data. But we don’t get to see the volume, only you do.

I think it’s reasonable to expect inflation, the question is how much? I just compared the base level crafting components (no insignias, planks, etc) from December 18 to today and the average price has risen 60%. The greatest increase being in Engraved Totems (from 92c to 5s20c) and the biggest decrease in Onyx shards (from 35s to 8s).

I think it’s reasonable to be somewhat concerned about the market right now. Of course, this may all blow over and be a momentary price spike caused by the latest patch.

You’re also failing to account for the wave of bot bans that happened after the end of Wintersday. Decreased supply with relatively constant demand of course leads to an increase in price.

I totally agree Noerknhar, as a new player myself it’s inconceivable I will ever be able to afford a Legendary because I wasn’t able to exploit my way to large amounts of gold or abuse the MF to get easy pre-cursors: I don’t ‘play the TP’ and the game gives no way of obtaining the obscene amounts of gold those who have stocks of these must-have items demand and can get.

In other words, you aren’t willing to use arguably the best way to make money, and you’re complaining about not being able to afford things. I’m not implying you should enjoy playing the market any more than I enjoyed jumping my way to 500 badges. But if you need money, you can’t complain that there are no ways to do it.

Of course. What you did not include in your reasoning however is that the average price to craft a precursor is also rising.

In a manner of speaking, anyway (though, he did say in the post you quoted that the price is increasing). Yes, the price in numbers is going up. However, I would argue that the time to farm from scratch is staying fairly constant (or decreasing with the increased drop rate). The amount of time it takes to mine up a few hundred mithril ore and kill mobs for T5 mats isn’t going anywhere. Yes, inflation means that you might have to farm mats yourself instead of buying them. So?

The reason for the spike in prices for t6 mats is the loot nerf patch of Nov 15th. Anet have just recently partially remedied this with bag drops but the supply decreased a lot at a time when more players were introduced to the game. I also believe that we need a new method of gaining ecto’s apart from salvage- no rares means no ectos. I’m a casual player who mostly does dailies, some map completion and dragons and atm a legendary is just a pipedream. At least the Feb monthly ‘encourages’ me to do dungeons :p

Wait, but prices were lower in December (during the “loot nerf patch”) then got higher when Anet increased the drop rate? So, the usual supply and demand relationship is just completely backwards here? I’m sure the spike in prices has nothing at all to do with the fact that they recently banned a lot of bots who were supplying mats into the economy. No, loot nerfing makes much more sense. . .

The problem is too much gold is being injected through farming. Instead they should replace the 26 silver with an item or mats instead. That way no new gold is printed.

That would at best delay the problem. People are still going to kill things, get items and sell them. There’s no such thing as “no new gold (being) printed.” Again, if everything’s inflating at roughly the same rate, you take advantage of it, not try to stop it. . .

John Smith.4610:

xxxzavulonxxx.8413:

Noerknhar.3826:

I think it’s fair to judge inflation on the items that are worth to think about in end game. Maybe the precursor example is a bit limiting, but it’s the best example for what i meant to say

You would be entirely incorrect in an economic standpoint.

Inflation is measured by the price levels of goods people buy regularly, not the price tags on private jets or other “endgame” goods people buy when they’re extremely wealthy.

This is correct, you cannot measure inflation by luxury goods, or by a single good, or by the several other assumptions you’re making (sell orders represent sales?).

With all due respect, ectoplasms are pushing 40s, unidentified dyes 20s, T5 mats 2s, and it is unknown where T6 dust will end (double? triple?). Ectoplasm is not a luxury good… it is used in just about every single thing a level 80 could want. It affects T5 prices. Likewise, dust is a key item in Mystic Forge recipes. The current price makes these recipes cost prohibitive. There is definitely inflation – I’m not sure why you don’t recognize it here – flaws in the original argument notwithstanding.

With all due respect, ectoplasms are pushing 40s, unidentified dyes 20s, T5 mats 2s, and it is unknown where T6 dust will end (double? triple?). Ectoplasm is not a luxury good… it is used in just about every single thing a level 80 could want. It affects T5 prices. Likewise, dust is a key item in Mystic Forge recipes. The current price makes these recipes cost prohibitive. There is definitely inflation – I’m not sure why you don’t recognize it here – flaws in the original argument notwithstanding.

I would argue that there’s also been a decrease in supply for all three of those items.

Unidentified dye is the easiest, since after they fixed the bug where dyes were dropping left and right the price shot up to 15s.

For Crystalline Dust, I’ll point out that Cursed Shore (a major supply point) seems much, much less populated now than it was before ~November (Karka event and Plinx nerf). Every person who would normally farm in Orr who’s instead doing a seasonal event in a low-level area is one who isn’t contributing to the supply. Same with anyone farming for lodestones, or almost any other T6 mat. . .

Ectoplasm is the most difficult to argue, I think. Aside from the aforementioned low-level events, I can think of a few contributing factors. Again, there seem to be fewer people farming events in high-level areas, which is going to affect the rare item supply, which affects the ectoplasm supply. People speed-running CoF path 1 over and over contribute fewer salvages of rares than they would running multiple paths. And of course, people playing the TP for money provide very few Ectos at all, unless that happens to be the market they’re playing.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s certainly been some inflation, but I’m not willing to lay the entirety of the price increases at the feet of inflation alone.

Iures.2894:

With all due respect, ectoplasms are pushing 40s, unidentified dyes 20s, T5 mats 2s, and it is unknown where T6 dust will end (double? triple?). Ectoplasm is not a luxury good… it is used in just about every single thing a level 80 could want. It affects T5 prices. Likewise, dust is a key item in Mystic Forge recipes. The current price makes these recipes cost prohibitive. There is definitely inflation – I’m not sure why you don’t recognize it here – flaws in the original argument notwithstanding.

I would argue that there’s also been a decrease in supply for all three of those items.

Unidentified dye is the easiest, since after they fixed the bug where dyes were dropping left and right the price shot up to 15s.

For Crystalline Dust, I’ll point out that Cursed Shore (a major supply point) seems much, much less populated now than it was before ~November (Karka event and Plinx nerf). Every person who would normally farm in Orr who’s instead doing a seasonal event in a low-level area is one who isn’t contributing to the supply. Same with anyone farming for lodestones, or almost any other T6 mat. . .

Ectoplasm is the most difficult to argue, I think. Aside from the aforementioned low-level events, I can think of a few contributing factors. Again, there seem to be fewer people farming events in high-level areas, which is going to affect the rare item supply, which affects the ectoplasm supply. People speed-running CoF path 1 over and over contribute fewer salvages of rares than they would running multiple paths. And of course, people playing the TP for money provide very few Ectos at all, unless that happens to be the market they’re playing.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s certainly been some inflation, but I’m not willing to lay the entirety of the price increases at the feet of inflation alone.

Inflation is the rise in prices for goods. It doesn’t matter why the price rose – the price rose and that is inflation.

Hmm. . .a quick google says you’re right. It’s just I’ve only ever heard it used in reference to price increases due to printing money, so to speak.

Fortuna.7259:

Inflation is the rise in prices for goods. It doesn’t matter why the price rose – the price rose and that is inflation.

Inflation is the erosion of the purchasing power of gold. If inflation was truly occuring, you’d see the prices of EVERYTHING go up, not just the few items everyone’s demanding.

Ursan.7846:

Fortuna.7259:

Inflation is the rise in prices for goods. It doesn’t matter why the price rose – the price rose and that is inflation.

Inflation is the erosion of the purchasing power of gold. If inflation was truly occuring, you’d see the prices of EVERYTHING go up, not just the few items everyone’s demanding.

Supply-and-demand beats Inflation. Why would the price of something nobody wants go up just because money is worth less?

Svarty.8019:

Ursan.7846:

Fortuna.7259:

Inflation is the rise in prices for goods. It doesn’t matter why the price rose – the price rose and that is inflation.

Inflation is the erosion of the purchasing power of gold. If inflation was truly occuring, you’d see the prices of EVERYTHING go up, not just the few items everyone’s demanding.

Supply-and-demand beats Inflation. Why would the price of something nobody wants go up just because money is worth less?

I’m confused at what you mean “beats.” You mean have a larger impact on prices of items? I guess, but it’s pointless to compare to two like that.

Anyways, if inflation was truly occuring, you should see prices of commonly-traded commodities trend upward. You don’t see this though.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19699

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19747

Just some random examples. You don’t see any of these prices trending upward.

So if prices of some luxury items are trending upwards, it means the demand is there. Not inflation!

As an aside, I really wish people would stop using the term “prices of ____ is inflating!”

First off, that’s not what the economic term “inflation” means.

And the word implies that there’s a static, “proper” price and that the new prices have deviated from. There’s no such thing in a free economy like this.

The inflation on gold/gem is getting worse. The prices are constantly going up and the ratio between gold-to-gem and gem-to-gold is slowly moving appart.

Also I have, on several occasions, observed that mystical plot based on ‘y=mx+c’. If this is not an indication of market manipulation then please correct me if I’m wrong.