Guild Wars 2

I see a lot of threads being created regarding the supply of precursors and its effect on their price. What I see most often is complaints about a single precursor or a select few. I have never seen a comparison of all of the precursors at once though, so I did one myself.

I may be mistaken, but it would be my guess that “all precursors are created equally” in the eyes of ArenaNet and the calculation of the drop rate from a loot table. What I mean by that is that if comparing Dawn, Dusk, or The Hunter…..their chance to drop from a mob is equal to the chance that Venom, The Bard, or Carcharias could drop.

Given that, I put together a little spreadsheet to compare ALL of the precursors and their respective Legendaries in an attempt to see how “demand” affects the price of these items.

What I found was that the items people complain most often about not dropping often enough are also the ones with the highest sell prices on the Trading Post. The reverse is also true. The precursors and Legendaries you never hear people complain about are also the ones that look to be in lower “demand”.

Keep in mind that I’m well aware that the data from GW2Spidy regarding “supply” and “demand” do not equate to the real supply and demand. Since we don’t have, nor will we ever have, that data, I used what was available to me in an attempt get a hold on this myself. I have posted my results here as a topic of conversation.

My findings are, whether you like it or not, that prices are being dictated by the player base. The more people that want an item will inherently drive its price up. If less people wanted The Hunter, Dawn or Dusk, my guess is the prices of those items would go down.

Enjoy, discuss…..complain!!!!

This is neat. Thanks for putting it together!

Why is The Collosus always the most expensive? The supply to demand ratio is closer than any of the other popular precursors.

laharl.8435:

Why is The Collosus always the most expensive? The supply to demand ratio is closer than any of the other popular precursors.

I noticed this too, but keep in mind, even for The Collosus, there are still almost 100 buy orders for every sell listing. That’s 1%. Most data sets have anomalies as well….this just happens to be the anomaly for this data set.

Edit: I just noticed this as well in regards to Collosus….

If you look two columns to the right, which shows the “demand” vs. “supply” for The Juggernaut, it’s actually the highest of all of them, which might be a contributing factor in the price of its precursor. Basically….The Juggernaut is in very high “demand” vs. it’s current “supply”. Food for thought at least.

This is wonderful, thank you.

Be careful Charismatic. Conspiracy theorists HATE it when you present data, as they have a hard time arguing against facts.

As for your chart, you should do one everyday this week, then chart the price movements into a single graph to see how they perform against each other. Although I do admit that a daily snapshot isn’t as accurate as one would like, seeing as how there’s constant movement 24/7 between snapshots.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Be careful Charismatic. Conspiracy theorists HATE it when you present data, as they have a hard time arguing against facts.

As for your chart, you should do one everyday this week, then chart the price movements into a single graph to see how they perform against each other. Although I do admit that a daily snapshot isn’t as accurate as one would like, seeing as how there’s constant movement 24/7 between snapshots.

Oh….I realize there’s nothing I can do, nor a dev from Anet can do, that will put conspiracy theorists to rest. I initially did that for my own benefit….to see if there really WAS something wrong. I really don’t think there is though.

It’d be nice to see what some of the “usual suspects” think though. I’ve been monitoring my thread to see what people say, but haven’t seen any criticism…..yet. I expect to see some soon though.

As for your idea of taking daily snapshots….while it might be nice to see, I really don’t care that much, lol. Also, I don’t think it would change the minds, or opinions, of those that are complaining.

I found the data useful and that’s what really mattered to me. I shared it because I hoped other people might find it useful as well.

Charismatic Harm.9683:

I may be mistaken, but it would be my guess that “all precursors are created equally” in the eyes of ArenaNet and the calculation of the drop rate from a loot table. What I mean by that is that if comparing Dawn, Dusk, or The Hunter…..their chance to drop from a mob is equal to the chance that Venom, The Bard, or Carcharias could drop.

Enjoy, discuss…..complain!!!!

Based on your data i would question your assumption. You see legendary two handed swords every where you go how many times do you see the predator? 15 dusks for sale no hunter. If The Energizer droped as often as Dusk the tp would be swimming in them. I would assumn that there is a bias towards the “more popular” skins some where in the code, which has been thrown out a little now some skins got an upgrade.

cargan.5689:

Based on your data i would question your assumption. You see legendary two handed swords every where you go how many times do you see the predator? 15 dusks for sale no hunter. If The Energizer droped as often as Dusk the tp would be swimming in them. I would assumn that there is a bias towards the “more popular” skins some where in the code, which has been thrown out a little now some skins got an upgrade.

Remember though, one method of precursor creation is the MF, which means more popular precursors like Dusk/Dawn are created a bit more often than less-popular ones like The Hunter.

Good point the Drop rate could be equal but i guess a lot more 2handers go into the magic toilet

Nice info. I have been wondering if the drop rate was affected by the number of classes that could use the weapon. I have played every day since launch, and see the greatsword precursors and legendaries everywhere. (literally, can’t walk more than 20 feet without seeing one) But I have never seen the rifle pre or legendary on any player, and I play about 6-8 hours a day after work. Could be that fewer people are playing those classes to explain the rarity, but that would also mean that given equal supply there would be less demand and more of them about. Does seem that the drop rates might not be equal…would be nice to know. Would also be nice to know how many pre’s are drops vs. the mystic toilet creation.

How many of the buy orders are within reason? What is considered reasonable?

For instance take Dusk atm there are 14 buy orders above 410g. According to Spidy there are 14 available with “demand” of 5021. So that means that the vast majority of the “demand” is not exactly realistic. Wouldn’t any buy order, even ones at 1 copper, count towards Spidy’s “demand” of 5021?

I think a more accurate picture of the “demand” would need to take into account reason.

Essence Snow.3194:

How many of the buy orders are within reason? What is considered reasonable?

For instance take Dusk atm there are 14 buy orders above 410g. According to Spidy there are 14 available with “demand” of 5021. So that means that the vast majority of the “demand” is not exactly realistic. Wouldn’t any buy order, even ones at 1 copper, count towards Spidy’s “demand” of 5021?

I think a more accurate picture of the “demand” would need to take into account reason.

Reason is part of the issue with the complaints about precursors though. I don’t know how many threads I’ve seen with players wanting the price of precursors in the 50g range and anything above that is “price gouging” or “manipulation”. 50g for a highly desired precursor / Legendary seems UNreasonable to me….as do the complaints about the current pricing of them. The data I gathered really only shows a trend of price vs. “want”. The higher priced ones are “wanted” more….and are the ones people complain most about their pricing. The lower priced ones are “wanted” less….and we never hear a peep about them.

I fully understand that the buy orders from Spidy cannot be equated directly to demand, nor can sell listings be equated directly to supply….but that can give us an idea of the general “want” by the community and the “availability” of these items in the game.

I guess my word choice was off. What I was trying to get across is basically what you just said. That most of the “demand” listed by Spidy is not realistic……ie all the buy orders under such amount are likely to nvr to be filled and those with the oders have that knowledge. They seem to be more of a way to bank cash (sorta like the lemon of ol), then legitimate “demand”.

For instance, I just now almost doubled the “demand” for The Colossus from 376 to 626. Do I expect my order of 250 Colossus to ever be filled?…no…I have risked nothing as I can retrieve everything invested at whim.

Basically what I am trying to get at is that the “demand” numbers from Spidy mean nada.

Essence Snow.3194:

I guess my word choice was off. What I was trying to get across is basically what you just said. That most of the “demand” listed by Spidy is not realistic……ie all the buy orders under such amount are likely to nvr to be filled and those with the oders have that knowledge. They seem to be more of a way to bank cash (sorta like the lemon of ol), then legitimate “demand”.

For instance, I just now almost doubled the “demand” for The Colossus from 376 to 626. Do I expect my order of 250 Colossus to ever be filled?…no…I have risked nothing as I can retrieve everything invested at whim.

Basically what I am trying to get at is that the “demand” numbers from Spidy mean nada.

Those 250 buy orders that you placed aren’t completely worthless though…..unless you don’t actually want them at that price. Are they unrealistic as to whether or not you’ll get them…..yes, definitely….and that’s because the player base has currently dictated the price to be MUCH higher.

We can’t use Spidy data to gather any hard and fast rules about supply and demand….that’s a given. What we can do is use the data we have available to us to determine trends or get a “warm fuzzy” about the current pricing metrics.

There isn’t any data on supply or demand. Even ArenaNet doesn’t have data on that. They have transaction data….the number of processed transactions and the price at which those transactions occurred. THAT data could give us a clear idea of how the community “feels” about the current pricing of the precursors. If people are buying them at the current price, the community must be fine with it.

More people would want to buy them if the price was lower. Fewer people would want to buy them if the price was higher. That’s how demand works. The supply is a completely different animal. That is completely controlled by ArenaNet…..whether through drop rates in the world, or through the Mystic Toilet.

Players want more precursors to be made available in the world because they want to make their Legendary weapons, but what would happen if Anet just gave in and made the world start raining precursors? Those precursors, and buy extension, their Legendaries, would become commonplace. An item that is commonplace is no longer rare and no longer coveted by the player base.

The point is…..even though the prices of certain precursors are well outside of many peoples reach, it’s meant to be that way and has been dictated as such by both ArenaNet with the drop rates and the community with the current prices on the Trading Post.

Legendaries are not meant to be items that everyone has. They’re meant to be rare. Players complain that they want one….or that RNG doesn’t favor them….or that other people are “lucky”, or undeserved. Players want to stand out….and rightly so, but increasing the drop rates of precursors won’t accomplish that goal. Players want what they want, but can’t see how what they want would actually negatively impact their “goal”.

I contend that there are only a few activities that allow such prices. Trading and things like Cof p1.. The vast majority of game play has nothing to do with the current prices. Without the profit potential of those avenues the price difference would be much smaller.

The trading and Cof p1 communities are the ones that decide the prices of said items, not the overall gw2 community. Normal game play does not have the ability to sustain elevated prices.

As long as the numbers of traders+cof p1 grinders+v (v= other catagory…could be rl cash into gems could be extreme lucky ppls etc…) > the supply of a certain item, the mass community of gw2 will have zero bearing on said item’s price.

In essence the prices are dictated by a niche of players, not the community as a whole.

Legendaries aren’t meant for the majority of players. They’re meant for a minority of players. They’re meant to be rare.

So, it stands to reason that only a minority of players SHOULD be able to afford them and as you pointed out, those players are currently the ones playing the TP and running CoF P1 mindlessly all day long.

That’s NOT to say that people in the majority of the player base CAN’T get a Legendary. They can…..it’s just going to take longer…..as it should.

I see players pointing fingers at the Trading Post with the assumption that it’s easy to make money using it. There are TIMES when it’s easy to make money, but overall, it takes dedication, skill, intuition and risk to make real profits. It’s not as easy as everyone thinks it is.

Where some people are good at farming….others are good at playing the Trading Post. Both are viable means of acquiring wealth….but both are not equally as accepted.

I like playing on the Trading Post to make money. I don’t do it full time because I bought this game to have fun….not sit watching a ticker all day…..or mindlessly farm. I’m a VERY small fish in an ENORMOUS ocean….but there’s room for me.

To me, it seems as if there is a “mindset” issue, not a game issue. Personally, I am of the mindset that if I want something, I know I’m going to need to work for it to achieve it. Others are of the mindset that since they bought the game, they should have equal access to everything in it no matter how hard they work….basically a sense of entitlement. Every player fits somewhere between having to work so hard to get something that it becomes more like a job than fun and “give it to me because I bought the game”. It’s the people at the extremes that we hear complain most often. Perhaps instead of complaining, they need to adjust their mindset. My 2c.

I find it very poor that Anets allows the continuance of gold dictation for said items. As the traders and grinders amass more wealth at a exponential rate compared to that of anything else. The lack of ability for anything else to attain such will also increase exponentially.

Basically the longer this continues the further away/ longer it’ll take any other method to obtain said items. Idk if that makes sense.

An example just for demonstrative purposes:

On a scale of 0-10 0=impossible and 10=possible, the ability a method of obtaining a legendary changes in correlation to the amount of time discrepancies are left in place.

So let’s say now trading and cof p1 have an artificial value of 6 and all other play has a value of 2. As things stand and time progresses trading and grinding will raise that value towards 10, while at the same time pushing the value of all other play towards 0.

That is what I am pointing fingers at….not that they are too rare… or just that they cost too much..it’s the disparity and the ever increasing disparity that disparity creates.

Yeah? Isn’t this basic econ 101. It’s like the first thing you learn.

vast majority of people don’t take econ 101. might seem juvenile to you and me and others here, but most people don’t understand it (as seen by the huge number of “precursors need to be cheaper” threads)

The funny thing is that precursors are so easy to generate without that big of a loss if you know how. I have made and sold a number of them and have a Colossus, Legend, Fortfang, Energizer, Carcharias, Bard up at this time (without flipping) and each cost me less than 50g to make.

However its not that much profit in the market since they move so slow (these have been up for over two weeks now).

Ethics.4519:

Yeah? Isn’t this basic econ 101. It’s like the first thing you learn.

Yes and no. Yes the theory is, but no the numbers supplied aren’t.

Mystic.5934:

vast majority of people don’t take econ 101. might seem juvenile to you and me and others here, but most people don’t understand it (as seen by the huge number of “precursors need to be cheaper” threads)

Basic Economics: A Common Sense Guide to the Economy by Thomas Sowell is an alternative to sitting through a class. It doesn’t have any math or complicated charts; it’s basically an explanation of fundamental economic principles with lots and lots of real world examples. I think if everyone who votes would read and understand this book, the world might be a very different place.

Gilosean.3805:

This is neat. Thanks for putting it together!

Thanks from me too – I found it very interesting!

Well, the biggest problem you already stated in your OP. That sell/buy listings =/= sell/buy orders.

You have many examples of items whose prices don’t quite match up to their sell/buy listing ratios.

Then you have your conclusion, which…is pretty obvious. I suppose not as obvious to those who don’t understand the concept of supply/demand.

Though I’d argue that the the main complaint isn’t WHY prices are high but that they SHOULDN’T be high. Many arguments all stem from this basic complaint.

1. Prices are high because manipulators. Prices are hence unnatural, unfair.
2. Prices are high because TP players. TP players not “legit,” prices are hence unfair.
3. Prices are high because item is too rare. Prices impossible to attain, unfair.

Which then spawns the discussion of whether the existence of such “luxury” goods in the game is good or not?

I believe the answer to that is yes. It is good for the game to make select rewards incredibly hard to attain, especially when these rewards have absolutely zero affect on the actual gameplay. But ah, that is an entirely independent topic from this one.

There are a vast majority of people that might get a pre (if they don’t want it) and sell it to the highest buy order. So the actual supply you won’t see. It could very well be a fairly small part of the total population that is dictating these prices. That’s not really a conspiracy theory, it’s more of a general concept, since we can’t really see what is moving through the TP. If i get a pre i didn’t want (like dusk or dawn) I’d pretty much sell it to the highest bidder and get the cash instead of sit on it undercutting the highest seller. Basically, it’s just too much G to list at those prices for most people.

Ursan.7846:

Well, the biggest problem you already stated in your OP. That sell/buy listings =/= sell/buy orders.

You have many examples of items whose prices don’t quite match up to their sell/buy listing ratios.

Then you have your conclusion, which…is pretty obvious. I suppose not as obvious to those who don’t understand the concept of supply/demand.

Though I’d argue that the the main complaint isn’t WHY prices are high but that they SHOULDN’T be high. Many arguments all stem from this basic complaint.

1. Prices are high because manipulators. Prices are hence unnatural, unfair.
2. Prices are high because TP players. TP players not “legit,” prices are hence unfair.
3. Prices are high because item is too rare. Prices impossible to attain, unfair.

Which then spawns the discussion of whether the existence of such “luxury” goods in the game is good or not?

I believe the answer to that is yes. It is good for the game to make select rewards incredibly hard to attain, especially when these rewards have absolutely zero affect on the actual gameplay. But ah, that is an entirely independent topic from this one.

You make some excellent points….especially in regards to where the basis of the complaints come from.

In my opinion, the complaints are coming from a sense of entitlement. I see quotes from the manifesto, posts made by the Devs, or any other information the complainers can gather to twist the way they want it, but the essence of the complaints boils down to….“I want my shiny, but I can’t afford it, so the system must be broken.”

While that may be their opinion….and everyone has one…..that doesn’t make it true.

The “data” I provided in my OP is flawed in MANY respects. It is not 100% accurate, but it’s the best data I could find….and it’s the ONLY data available. Even without 100% accuracy, that doesn’t mean that nothing can be learned from it. The basic premise behind what I see in that data is that the precursors / Legendaries that many people want are the ones that also carry with them the highest prices. In relation to that, the precursors / Legendaries that people don’t want are “cheap” in comparison.

Even without the buy order numbers, that assumption could be determined just by reading the forums. The complaint threads usually talk about only a few of the precursors….the expensive ones. When one of the cheap ones is tossed into the discussion, those people are told to go away….but their posts contain value. That value is that it’s the desired precursor / Legendary that’s expensive….not ALL precursors / Legendaries as is being claimed. It’s these claims that can somewhat be refuted by gathering the data we can and presenting it. That’s what I tried to do.

Personally….I found it interesting to see the numbers and what I took away from it is that it’s probably not a problem with the system….but rather with the players that want the precursors / Legendaries themselves.

munkiman.3068:

There are a vast majority of people that might get a pre (if they don’t want it) and sell it to the highest buy order. So the actual supply you won’t see. It could very well be a fairly small part of the total population that is dictating these prices. That’s not really a conspiracy theory, it’s more of a general concept, since we can’t really see what is moving through the TP. If i get a pre i didn’t want (like dusk or dawn) I’d pretty much sell it to the highest bidder and get the cash instead of sit on it undercutting the highest seller. Basically, it’s just too much G to list at those prices for most people.

I would probably do something similar if I was to come across an unwanted precursor. I most likely wouldn’t sell it to the highest bidder, but I wouldn’t undercut the lowest seller by 1c either. I would probably list it at the average value between the two.

That way, I’d make a little more money and someone could pick up a precursor at a “deal”. In that situation, I think it’s a win / win. While I wouldn’t be maximizing the amount of money I’d be making, I would reduce MY risk of being undercut and I could put that money to better use in other ways.

Charismatic Harm.9683:

munkiman.3068:

There are a vast majority of people that might get a pre (if they don’t want it) and sell it to the highest buy order. So the actual supply you won’t see. It could very well be a fairly small part of the total population that is dictating these prices. That’s not really a conspiracy theory, it’s more of a general concept, since we can’t really see what is moving through the TP. If i get a pre i didn’t want (like dusk or dawn) I’d pretty much sell it to the highest bidder and get the cash instead of sit on it undercutting the highest seller. Basically, it’s just too much G to list at those prices for most people.

I would probably do something similar if I was to come across an unwanted precursor. I most likely wouldn’t sell it to the highest bidder, but I wouldn’t undercut the lowest seller by 1c either. I would probably list it at the average value between the two.

That way, I’d make a little more money and someone could pick up a precursor at a “deal”. In that situation, I think it’s a win / win. While I wouldn’t be maximizing the amount of money I’d be making, I would reduce MY risk of being undercut and I could put that money to better use in other ways.

While true, it still misses that data, which might be a much larger factor. Many people that complain about the prices really don’t take into account the “hidden” transactions that most likely happen regularly. So in a sense they do have a point, there very well may be, in fact, a pretty small number of people that can even afford the listing fees for these top priced items and are to some extent manipulating the top end of the market. We aren’t talking about what it actually cost to buy a pre in those cases. There is a pretty good chance that 200g off lowest seller will win you a pre in a fairly short time (say a month). Most people react to that lowest seller price they see in the listing, when i’m fairly certain most folks would at least get rid of it with least risk and faster by selling it fairly close to highest bidder.

Ursan.7846:

Well, the biggest problem you already stated in your OP. That sell/buy listings =/= sell/buy orders.

I think the best we can do with the data we have available is to look at the change over time and add a fudge factor in for relistings and cancels. Looking at the buy/sell listings for items that are low volume tells us something, even though it’s not the whole story. I think we can assume that listings that have been around a while are the bounding range for where the real action is happening.

Ursan.7846:

Though I’d argue that the the main complaint isn’t WHY prices are high but that they SHOULDN’T be high. Many arguments all stem from this basic complaint.

1. Prices are high because manipulators. Prices are hence unnatural, unfair.
2. Prices are high because TP players. TP players not “legit,” prices are hence unfair.
3. Prices are high because item is too rare. Prices impossible to attain, unfair.

Which then spawns the discussion of whether the existence of such “luxury” goods in the game is good or not?

I believe the answer to that is yes. It is good for the game to make select rewards incredibly hard to attain, especially when these rewards have absolutely zero affect on the actual gameplay. But ah, that is an entirely independent topic from this one.

I think that’s a nice summary of why threads about precursors get so long. I think it’s odd that a luxury item in a game can spawn so many cries of “unfair!” but far fewer people seem to mind that they will never be able to afford the real world analogues. My suspicion is that it is tied to the desire to “win” the game, and many folks feel that having the “best” gear is the win condition. If you come at it from that perspective, “winning” GW2 is incredibly tedious, and not much of an accomplishment if someone who has put a lot less effort into the game can “win” just by getting lucky.

I like having extremely rare items in my games as long as they are truly luxuries, i.e. aren’t necessary to see all the content, and if there is a way to gamble for them. I open every single unidentified dye I get, because you never know if it might be something rare or cool. I dump the occasional set of level 80 rares into the forge just for the thrill of spinning the wheel.

I feel for the folks that are trying to gamble their way to a precursor instead of just accumulating the gold to buy one. I understand their motivation for doing it that way, but it turns something that should be fun into misery.

(edited for grammar and punctuation)

Ursan.7846:

Well, the biggest problem you already stated in your OP. That sell/buy listings =/= sell/buy orders.

You have many examples of items whose prices don’t quite match up to their sell/buy listing ratios.

Then you have your conclusion, which…is pretty obvious. I suppose not as obvious to those who don’t understand the concept of supply/demand.

Though I’d argue that the the main complaint isn’t WHY prices are high but that they SHOULDN’T be high. Many arguments all stem from this basic complaint.

1. Prices are high because manipulators. Prices are hence unnatural, unfair.
2. Prices are high because TP players. TP players not “legit,” prices are hence unfair.
3. Prices are high because item is too rare. Prices impossible to attain, unfair.

Which then spawns the discussion of whether the existence of such “luxury” goods in the game is good or not?

I believe the answer to that is yes. It is good for the game to make select rewards incredibly hard to attain, especially when these rewards have absolutely zero affect on the actual gameplay. But ah, that is an entirely independent topic from this one.

I don’t think I am on the “side” of most posters complaining/posting concerns about them.

I don’t really mind high prices as long as they are not gated behind unbalanced/broken items/play/mechanics.

Lets hypothetically put a new way to earn gold into the game, one that creates duo-fold what Cof p1 does. We would see prices shift/rise from being tied to Cof p1 and the like to this new potential. In essence if you wanted to obtain one of said items you would have to partake in this new activity. Cof p1 would no longer be an option b/c the exponential rate of gold from the new activity supersedes it.

This is basically what we have now. If one wants to amass enough gold for said items they really have no choice but to do cof p1 or trade (ofc there are exceptions). Essentially they are gated behind these activities which are noticeably unbalanced. That is the reason I debate it. I feel it is a poor design choice, not necessarily “unfair”.

Essence Snow.3194:

I don’t think I am on the “side” of most posters complaining/posting concerns about them.

I don’t really mind high prices as long as they are not gated behind unbalanced/broken items/play/mechanics.

Lets hypothetically put a new way to earn gold into the game, one that creates duo-fold what Cof p1 does. We would see prices shift/rise from being tied to Cof p1 and the like to this new potential. In essence if you wanted to obtain one of said items you would have to partake in this new activity. Cof p1 would no longer be an option b/c the exponential rate of gold from the new activity supersedes it.

This is basically what we have now. If one wants to amass enough gold for said items they really have no choice but to do cof p1 or trade (ofc there are exceptions). Essentially they are gated behind these activities which are noticeably unbalanced. That is the reason I debate it. I feel it is a poor design choice, not necessarily “unfair”.

This is an entirely different subject, and one Anet completely agrees with you.

In GW1, Anet has a long history of discouraging specific farming activities which were far more profitable than ordinary gameplay. Farming builds like the Perma-Shadow Refuge Assassin and the 55 Monk were incredibly popular, only to get hit by the nerfstick. Shadow Refuge was completely revamped to make farming with it impossible, and many monsters with “Touch” abilities were added to make 55 Monking in many areas infeasible.

However, it should be noted that it is impossible to balance out perfectly the profitability of all aspects of the game. Some methods will always be more efficient than others, and people will naturally flock to it. To smooth these imbalances out honestly is a waste of time for Anet, unless it’s as egregious as CoF path 1.

Of course, there’s the question of just how much impact CoF path 1 farming actually has an impact on the economy. Most efficient gold farming method it may be, I imagine there’s still a huge swath of the population which 1) does not know about it or 2) knows about it but doesn’t do it for various reasons. We can speculate all we want, but we honestly will never know how significant of a problem to the economy CoF path 1 is. Only Anet knows, and they revamped AC before revamping CoF. That should show you how worried they are about CoF path 1 (Doesn’t seem like they are too stressed about it.)

Is CoF path 1 a problem? Yes, it most definitely is. However, the severity of this problem is a discussion none of us can really answer.

Essence Snow.3194:

I don’t really mind high prices as long as they are not gated behind unbalanced/broken items/play/mechanics.

This is basically what we have now. If one wants to amass enough gold for said items they really have no choice but to do cof p1 or trade (ofc there are exceptions). Essentially they are gated behind these activities which are noticeably unbalanced. That is the reason I debate it. I feel it is a poor design choice, not necessarily “unfair”.

I don’t agree with your implied definition of “gated”. It may be that running COF P1 is the fastest way to make gold without being a trader, but it isn’t the only way. I suspect that COF runs are more popular than efficient. There is nothing preventing me from amassing a huge pile of gold without doing COF runs, even though it might take me longer. I’m not stuck behind any gate that only COF P1 will unlock.

I know that you’re convinced that no other activity can match what COF speed runs bring in, but while it may feel like fast gold, you don’t really know until you run the numbers and compare it to a different activity. You also have to consider that because everyone is doing it, the types of items dropped in COF are over-supplied. The most efficient farming changes with the market, and I can almost guarantee you that as soon as a particular method becomes overwhelmingly popular, there’s another method that will give you a better return once you factor in selling the drops.

We always test the waters before committing any significant amount of time to a farming activity. Empty out your inventory, deposit all but one gold in your bank, eat a 30 minute MF food, and farm until the food runs out. And yes, waiting around for the group to get their act together for COF counts against your farming time. Sell your junk and price out whatever drops you picked up and figure out what your gold per hour was. It’s best to run the test a few times to even out lucky drops.

In general, we’ve found that moving around pays out more than doing one thing over and over, hopping from way point to way point to chase events is a waste of time and money, and having a farming partner or two gives you a significant advantage over doing the same thing solo. We only run dungeons for the tokens or for fun. Folks won’t kill the trash mobs in them, which seems like shooting yourself in the foot considering some of the exotics I’ve had drop from them. They really don’t take that long to kill if you’re running with a competent team.

Pandemoniac.4739:

And yes, waiting around for the group to get their act together for COF counts against your farming time.

This is a very good point that people who trumpet the profitability of CoF path 1 never mentions.

As I have no personal experience with these War/Mes CoF Path 1 speedruns, I really do wonder how long you wait for the perfect group set-up in between all the gear-checks and whatnot. I also wonder what the actual efficiency of these runs is. Even a small mistake like a downed person will add a few seconds to the speedrun. I run CoF with normal groups, and every once in an often you get a person who dies to the Slave Driver or the run across the bridge. Who knows…

Ursan.7846:

Pandemoniac.4739:

And yes, waiting around for the group to get their act together for COF counts against your farming time.

This is a very good point that people who trumpet the profitability of CoF path 1 never mentions.

As I have no personal experience with these War/Mes CoF Path 1 speedruns, I really do wonder how long you wait for the perfect group set-up in between all the gear-checks and whatnot. I also wonder what the actual efficiency of these runs is. Even a small mistake like a downed person will add a few seconds to the speedrun. I run CoF with normal groups, and every once in an often you get a person who dies to the Slave Driver or the run across the bridge. Who knows…

Maybe 2-10 mins (ofc depends on the ppl) to get started. For a good group, that is a one time cost. Good groups are capable of 5-6min runs w/ next to no turn around costs. There is also a contested cost which varies that would need to be factored in.

Moving around has associated costs of setup time for change in content, wp costs, etc etc…for each move. Repetitive play only incurs most of those costs once on onset. These are mainly general play costs.

Edit..anywho I fear that I have unintentionally derailed the thread. Since I have recognized this I will end my part of this path here.

Essence Snow.3194:

Edit..anywho I fear that I have unintentionally derailed the thread. Since I have recognized this I will end my part of this path here.

I wouldn’t say the thread has been derailed….just diverted. This information is a contributing factor to the reason precursor and Legendary prices are “so high”. So, imo, I think this data is also a valid part of the discussion.

I agree with some of the posters above when they state that just because CoF P1 is the “gate” right now….that doesn’t mean it always is. Farming in general is someone players do in ALL MMO’s. Game designers know this. Players want gold and they’re willing to run the same thing over and over again to make money. If some other farming spot is “released to the community”, then players will flock there in droves. The smart farmers (like the smart TP players), keep their profitable farming spots to themselves and only leave once more and more players figure it out. At that point, they’ll move on and look for a new spot. Right now, that spot is CoF P1. Even though everyone and their dog is doing it…..it’s still profitable.

So….what happens when Anet nerfs CoF? The smart farmers will find a new spot and the “entitled” will complain that Anet “nerfed the only good farming spot”.

I feel the problem isn’t really that players can’t make money….it’s that they can’t make money easy enough. These items they want are expensive….and they should be. Players need to look for their own niche….but most are FAR too lazy for that. They’re sheep…or lemmings…or whatever. They search online for something that someone else already put the work into, then run it as long as they can, then complain when it gets nerfed.

In GW1, I always found it SO much more rewarding to find my own spot to farm. I remember when feathers were 10k / stack. Everyone was farming feathers in GW:EN, yet completely overlooked the fact that right outside D’Alessio Seaboard was a FLOCK of Tengu, that when farmed in Hard Mode, would yield around 2 stacks of feathers every 15 minutes. They farmed in GW:EN because that’s where everyone else was farming. If they would have looked at the enemies that dropped feathers, then found those enemies on the map….they would have been much better off. I think the same might be said for CoF P1, but I don’t know since I don’t do that farm.

My point is, where is the profit coming from? Is it the coin drops? Is it the material drops? Is it the item drops? Depending on where it’s coming from, I’m sure there’s another place in the giant world of Tyria that’s equally, or more, profitable.

Orr farms and Plinx for both karma and money are still quite profitable, although i haven’t run them in a long time. But you’re all correct in as much as the cost of these weapons far overcome the even higher than average income of the player base. What we have in GW2 is similar to what’s going on in American economics, there are just too many poor players and very few middle wealth players. I still don’t doubt the high wealth players to be either extremely lucky (won the lotto) or extremely well versed in trading practices. The ones that actually “labor” basically have a tough time, financially. It’s pretty much a world problem and it’s very similar in this game.

munkiman.3068:

Orr farms and Plinx for both karma and money are still quite profitable, although i haven’t run them in a long time. But you’re all correct in as much as the cost of these weapons far overcome the even higher than average income of the player base. What we have in GW2 is similar to what’s going on in American economics, there are just too many poor players and very few middle wealth players. I still don’t doubt the high wealth players to be either extremely lucky (won the lotto) or extremely well versed in trading practices. The ones that actually “labor” basically have a tough time, financially. It’s pretty much a world problem and it’s very similar in this game.

There are always going to be “haves” and “have nots” in any game….and life. The correlation you made is SO very true.

The rich are able to make more money than the poor because they have a larger bankroll to play with and can sustain losses with higher risk trades. They can do this because they can afford to lose a little money here and there and not greatly affect them. The opposite is true for the poor. They have a difficult time making money because they can’t afford to invest much and definitely can’t sustain a loss.

Many of these poor people (players) look to the government (ArenaNet) for assistance rather than working harder to make a better life for themselves. Pointing fingers at the rich solely because they’re rich just shows lack of integrity.

Few people (players) are willing to work for the things they want and expect those things to be given to them simply because they exist. It’s a sad situation we’re in.

While i completely agree with you, there is a pretty big disparity between the wealthy and the poor. The game really doesn’t have solid ways to earn a living, so to speak, which is why there are complaints on the costs (ectos are pretty crazy right now). There are an extreme amount of money sinks in the game (crafting, waypoint costs, repairs, consumables, etc) that the average and in many cases “hard working” players really never break the 100g barrier, many not even the 40g one. 100g in this game is measly pittance really when you take in the account of what it cost to play the game and acquire the goods you want to keep you playing. Instead of a gear treadmill, most players carrot on a string is entirely based on RNG, which in my opinion is a million times worse than running some uber elite dungeon for better gear, over and over. There are a lot of complaints on this, yet Anet continues to add more and people keep buying gems, which basically says, it’s ok to do it this way. I too buy gems, because i do support the game, but not as much because i agree with certain aspects of how it’s dished out. But, i can tell you i won’t do it for long.

munkiman.3068:

While i completely agree with you, there is a pretty big disparity between the wealthy and the poor. The game really doesn’t have solid ways to earn a living, so to speak, which is why there are complaints on the costs (ectos are pretty crazy right now). There are an extreme amount of money sinks in the game (crafting, waypoint costs, repairs, consumables, etc) that the average and in many cases “hard working” players really never break the 100g barrier, many not even the 40g one. 100g in this game is measly pittance really when you take in the account of what it cost to play the game and acquire the goods you want to keep you playing. Instead of a gear treadmill, most players carrot on a string is entirely based on RNG, which in my opinion is a million times worse than running some uber elite dungeon for better gear, over and over. There are a lot of complaints on this, yet Anet continues to add more and people keep buying gems, which basically says, it’s ok to do it this way. I too buy gems, because i do support the game, but not as much because i agree with certain aspects of how it’s dished out. But, i can tell you i won’t do it for long.

So what do you recommend – all players, casual or hardcore deserve a fixed g/h?

No matter what Arenanet does…hardcore people will always come out on top, as it should be. That’s just the nature of games.

Vol.5241:

So what do you recommend – all players, casual or hardcore deserve a fixed g/h?

No matter what Arenanet does…hardcore people will always come out on top, as it should be. That’s just the nature of games.

This is exactly my point. There is nothing for ArenaNet TO do. The problem is with the players, not the developer.

Anet has made a choice to remove grind in one aspect of the game in order to put players on a more level playing field. You don’t have to grind for stats to play the game. Exotics are PLENTY to get you through the vast majority of the game with little to no problem. If you want to make it a little easier, you can grind a little to get the Ascended accessories, but they really aren’t necessary.

The grind they’ve added to the game is purely cosmetic: Named Exotics, Precursors, Legendary Weapons, RNG Armor / Weapon Skins. With this comes the problem we see now though. Players want those things, but they’re expensive. What they don’t seem to understand is that it truly is the “lesser of two evils”. What if we had to grind for stats, or stats AND skins? The volume of complaints would be even more ridiculous than it is now.

Nothing ArenaNet does will cull the complaints. Players say they want Anet to make the skins easier to get, but with that comes less rarity, and thereby, less individuality….something players crave.

I realize that not all players are the same and there’s nothing anyone can do about that. Some will grind 10 hours a day to achieve their goals, then move on to the next one when they do. Some players log in a couple of hours a week. The issue is that those different types of players are not meant to have the same things. The harder you work, the more you should be able to achieve.

Players want what they want and will complain if they can’t / don’t get it. It’s just human nature.

I wish there was a solution that could allow everyone to get what they want, no matter what that is, but I don’t see one and none of the suggestions I’ve seen made by other players would work either.

A message to gamers (not directed at anyone specifically even though I quoted Vol in my post):
If you’re playing a video game and it’s not fun while you’re trying to achieve your goals, perhaps new goals, or a different game should be what you look at. Also, it’s a good idea to look beyond your own goals to the overall health of the video game you’re playing. Just because you’re not getting what you want doesn’t mean the game is broken.

munkiman.3068:

While i completely agree with you, there is a pretty big disparity between the wealthy and the poor. The game really doesn’t have solid ways to earn a living, so to speak, which is why there are complaints on the costs (ectos are pretty crazy right now). There are an extreme amount of money sinks in the game (crafting, waypoint costs, repairs, consumables, etc) that the average and in many cases “hard working” players really never break the 100g barrier, many not even the 40g one.

I think your perception of what should be considered “middle class” is flawed. If everyone in the middle class could afford a Ferrari, I guarantee you that next year there would be a model 10x as expensive that only a few people could afford. There’s nothing wrong with having items in a game that only a small percentage of players can afford, as long as you don’t need those items to play all of the content in the game.

I have easily earned more than 40G, and I don’t farm much or play the TP. I don’t have it sitting around in my bank because I bought stuff with it. I blew a lot of gold discovering every single chef recipe just for fun, and I have a bunch of alts I spent money on I didn’t really have to. None of the costs necessary for playing the game are unavoidably exorbitant. For example, I don’t buy a stack of rare veggie pizzas, when super veggie pizzas are 1/4 the cost and almost as effective. I always end up with more gold than I started with at the end of a play session (which is separate in my mind from a crafting or gearing up session).

When my Necro alt hit 80, I kitted her out in level 80 greens with major runes and sprang for exotic weapons and still had money left over. I think I spent some of her karma on trinkets, I don’t recall precisely. She can go anywhere in the game while I earn or find what I need to get her into her final gear. I don’t do dungeon speed runs, so maybe her gear would be a liability there, but she can do normal dungeon runs just fine.

I can afford everything I need to play the game and I don’t do COF p1 speed runs or play the TP.

There’s plenty of stuff I want, but I’ll get most of it eventually. Or I’ll get a lucky drop and get some of it sooner. Or I’ll sell some of the expensive stuff in my stash that I’m hanging on to just in case I need it for myself. It all comes down to how badly do you want whatever it is you can’t afford. Do you want it badly enough to not pay for another way point until you’ve saved up enough to buy it? Do you want it badly enough to not spend money to level by crafting and sell all of your harvested materials? Do you want it badly enough to not convert your gold to gems to buy the new shinies? The problem isn’t that players can’t earn gold fast enough. The problem is that the majority of players don’t know how to manage the gold they do earn.

Pandemoniac.4739:

The problem isn’t that players can’t earn gold fast enough. The problem is that the majority of players don’t know how to manage the gold they do earn.

This is an EXCELLENT point!!!!

Part of earning money is not spending it the second you earn it. If more players would put their purchases on hold for the time being, they’d see their bankrolls expanding to a point where they probably COULD afford one or two of the pretty shinies they want. Will they get everything they want? Probably not. SHOULD they get everything they want? Again….probably not. They WILL get everything they need, some things they want, and with diligent saving….a few of the things they covet most.

You’re all really forgetting the point here. I’m not talking about being middle class, I could easily spend a thousand bucks on gems right now and have plenty of money in game. I know plenty of hard cores that are basically always broke (or almost always). Anet did start buy offering better rewards from the big chests and that’s a good start. But this topic being about supply and demand, you’re seeing some pretty wealthy people posting precursors, and many that might even get one (this middle class casual), may not even have the listing fee and is forced to play outside there normal zone of play just to get enough to list it. It’s downright silly. There are plenty of discussions about how to fix things, they aren’t broken per say, but there are far too many things in the game now that disparage even modest wealth. I’m not really belly aching about it at all, i do fine with it for the most part. But, there are some silly things that are in the game currently that really make trying for them a waste, since you’re just never going to get there unless all you do is grind/farm. You’re right, you can easily play most content with greens… Not sure how that’s even a point to be made. This game focuses on skin acquisition and for the majority of the player base to miss out on the main focus of the game seems pretty irrational. Do you not think tier 2-3 gear is a bit overpriced? how about the priory/vigil/whisper skins?

There’s one thing i’d immediately change, and that’s the logic behind what’s account bound on acquire and what’s not. Why are unused kits and harvesting tools account bound on acquire and legendaries not? Why can’t i send my buddy a kit in a dungeon? Is it better he pay waypoint costs just to fetch one or buy a merchant off the Gem store? Let’s not even talk about the exuberant cost of gems now….

Should the wealth be able to afford a legendary as an option? Seriously? But i can’t send a kit to someone…

munkiman.3068:

But this topic being about supply and demand, you’re seeing some pretty wealthy people posting precursors, and many that might even get one (this middle class casual), may not even have the listing fee and is forced to play outside there normal zone of play just to get enough to list it.

What’s wrong with some folks not being able to afford some things? (Don’t get me started on the listing fee for buy orders though – that’s a whole other thread.)

munkiman.3068:

But, there are some silly things that are in the game currently that really make trying for them a waste, since you’re just never going to get there unless all you do is grind/farm.

What’s wrong with that? I could argue with you a bit about the only way to get expensive items being grinding, but I don’t think it would add much to the debate. I don’t agree that it’s a bad thing that some items are too expensive for folks to get without a lot of effort or time.

munkiman.3068:

You’re right, you can easily play most content with greens… Not sure how that’s even a point to be made. This game focuses on skin acquisition and for the majority of the player base to miss out on the main focus of the game seems pretty irrational. Do you not think tier 2-3 gear is a bit overpriced? how about the priory/vigil/whisper skins?

I don’t think anything is over-priced. I have some of my order skins, mixed with other skins I liked and I’m not a hard core gold earner. I don’t agree that the main focus of the game is acquiring stuff. I think the main focus of the game is building a character and fighting to see how good of a job you did building and playing your character. I’m sure other folks have a different focus.

Interesting, what’s wrong with it? It’s a game, the goal of anet was in fact to enjoy the game, but look at this forum section alone. How many posts are about the money? Or how screwy the economy is? Is it anets goal to have a community of poor players? Sure seems that way.

I’ll give you an excellent example too, the borderland series. Not once did i ever worry about revive costs, i always had money and could simply play the game and not even worry for one second about what it’s going to cost me to die. If i WvW and don’t make up my repair costs, that’s an issue. One super basic thing that would help is increase vendor return, more silver per item would float the population without touching costs of WP’s, repairs, consumables, etc. It might even make crafting a little less hard hitting to the wallet.

Again, it’s a game, to use all these analogies to real life economics and social classes just shouldn’t be the case. I can quite a game, quitting life on the other hand isn’t really an option.

Charismatic Harm.9683:

Pandemoniac.4739:

The problem isn’t that players can’t earn gold fast enough. The problem is that the majority of players don’t know how to manage the gold they do earn.

This is an EXCELLENT point!!!!

Part of earning money is not spending it the second you earn it. If more players would put their purchases on hold for the time being, they’d see their bankrolls expanding to a point where they probably COULD afford one or two of the pretty shinies they want. Will they get everything they want? Probably not. SHOULD they get everything they want? Again….probably not. They WILL get everything they need, some things they want, and with diligent saving….a few of the things they covet most.

In no way am i talking about the speed of earning, or even with arguing over the cost of pre’s, my beef is with the flaws in the system that keep players poor unless they do x or y. Honestly, this is the only game (mmo or not), besides simcity (which is all about earnings and keeping a tight budget) that i’ve actually spent time thinking about the financial aspect of a game, not even GW1.

munkiman.3068:

Interesting, what’s wrong with it? It’s a game, the goal of anet was in fact to enjoy the game, but look at this forum section alone. How many posts are about the money? Or how screwy the economy is? Is it anets goal to have a community of poor players? Sure seems that way.

The point of those threads are NOT about money in general. Those threads are about the money it costs to buy the prettiest shinies in the game….the luxury items. They never talk about not being able to afford WP travel, repair costs, or things like that. If they did, then I might incline to agree with you that the money generated by playing the game normally is out of whack. It’s not though. A player can earn MORE than enough money to fund day-to-day costs. When those same players play recklessly and die a lot causing higher repair costs, or travel around using WP’s to chase event chains…..they’re simply not spending their money wisely. That too is not a fault of the economy or the developer. That is the fault of the player.

Edit: After posting, I noticed you replied to a post of mine, but everything I stated above also applies to your reply.

munkiman.3068:

Interesting, what’s wrong with it? It’s a game, the goal of anet was in fact to enjoy the game

Right, and many many people do enjoy the game without worrying about its extrinsic rewards.

People actually do enjoy the game just by playing it without worrying so much about rewards. I mean, just look at the people playing WvW. The “rewards” for WvW is paltry by every standard. However, these people (Me included) are not worrying about extrinsic rewards because the intrinsic reward of the content is just so fun and so worth it.

And in the end, these said extrinsic rewards (Legendaries) have no impact on actual gameplay.

Charismatic Harm.9683:

munkiman.3068:

Interesting, what’s wrong with it? It’s a game, the goal of anet was in fact to enjoy the game, but look at this forum section alone. How many posts are about the money? Or how screwy the economy is? Is it anets goal to have a community of poor players? Sure seems that way.

The point of those threads are NOT about money in general. Those threads are about the money it costs to buy the prettiest shinies in the game….the luxury items. They never talk about not being able to afford WP travel, repair costs, or things like that. If they did, then I might incline to agree with you that the money generated by playing the game normally is out of whack. It’s not though. A player can earn MORE than enough money to fund day-to-day costs. When those same players play recklessly and die a lot causing higher repair costs, or travel around using WP’s to chase event chains…..they’re simply not spending their money wisely. That too is not a fault of the economy or the developer. That is the fault of the player.

Edit: After posting, I noticed you replied to a post of mine, but everything I stated above also applies to your reply.

Guild treks are a good example of very unprofitable returns, you have a time limit and have to WP to get nothing in return. Sure you can sit there and farm some mobs and make up for it. Will people? Prolly not, since they don’t want to have to think about it. I spend enough time in real life thinking about money.

In any case, maybe you haven’t been around the forums long, but there are actually a great deal of threads complaining about WP costs, repair cost, money sinks, etc. There are also plenty of threads about how people only have 8g and how can i make money so i can gear my toon out in exotics (or earn enough to get a craft to 400). It’s a rat race and there are a good number of people way behind, many simply just quit altogether. That’s absolutely reflected in the recent patches (guaranteed rares from boss chests among others).

Keeping in tune with this supply and demand deal, it’s all about the economics of it, people aren’t playing games to not show off their accomplishments in it. And, yes you should absolutely have fun getting there, its a game after all. The way it’s designed can be changed, the actual economy can be fixed, cause it’s a game! There are far too many people completely sick of RNG, completely sick of the cost of crafting, sick of the cost of mats, etc. That shows to me that there is something wrong, even though i’m not in total agreement with it either.