Guild Wars 2

Just look at the amount of them in the trading post.

For example, the legend, there’s only 2.

John I get it, they need to be rare, but why is the supply totally cut off? There is nothing coming in.

That’s a player controlled issue, not Anet’s. If players no longer wants to sell their Precursors, of course there won’t be any “TP Supply”.

OR… Buy Orders are getting filled without the hassles of placing listings.

The statement that supply is totally cut off, and that there is nothing coming in is most likely false.

Gasoline.2570:

Just look at the amount of them in the trading post.

For example, the legend, there’s only 2.

John I get it, they need to be rare, but why is the supply totally cut off? There is nothing coming in.

Yeah and in another thread you assumed that precursors no longer drop…..

Based on my (and many others) experience they don’t.

We only see snapshots of what is being offered at the TP, we don’t see the actual number passing through the TP. It’s possible that the price of those 2 are very unattractive and as soon as one becomes available it’s snapped up or sold directly to the highest bidder.

GW2Spidy updates irregularly (19, 27, 22, 25, etc minutes apart) and GuildWarsTrade every 10-11 minutes. We don’t see what happens in that in between time. If one is added and sold within that time period, or an old one is sold and a new one is added, it will appear as if nothing happened.

Most likely being hoarded and sold one at a time.

Can easily happen with rich flippers when a rare item with such massive demand is only possible to get through an extremely low chance to drop.

Until there’s a way to get them other than through other players basically it won’t change.

Knote.2904:

Most likely being hoarded and sold one at a time.

Can easily happen with rich flippers when a rare item with such massive demand is only possible to get through an extremely low chance to drop.

Until there’s a way to get them other than through other players basically it won’t change.

Not most likely but 100%.

As said pre crafting precursor was announced, there was 1-2 ZAP on the market.
When it was announced supply got to 15 and maximum offers drop to 400 G

Soon after someone offered 120 GOLD and 130 more than the highest offer….

Market manipulation is rampant…..the TP is failing because they refuse to address the lack of balance in risk/reward in flipping

There is people with so much gold that they are able alone to change economy while other struggle to get the minimum equipment to play.

And devs say economy is great.

If they increases the supply of precursors, your title would read “Supply of t6 materials too low”. Which would probably be worse for the economy as a whole.

And it never ends, too. If they increase the supply of t6 mats, the title would read “supply of [insert needed material] is too low”. There will always be a bottleneck. If there would be no bottleneck, the title would read “My legendary is not special, everyone has one”.

Given that legendaries are a long term goal which are supposed to distinguish you from the crowd, there has to be a bottleneck somewhere. The least damaging bottleneck for the economy (and new players entering the game) is, most likely, the precursor. I’m just guesstimating though, which is my self-proclaimed specialty.

OP is wrong. Torch precursor dropped for me last night. Put it on the TP for 3g less then highest offer. Sold in 4 mintues.

/thread.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

OP is wrong. Torch precursor dropped for me last night. Put it on the TP for 3g less then highest offer. Sold in 4 mintues.

/thread.

expect it to be relisted soon.

LordByron.8369:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

OP is wrong. Torch precursor dropped for me last night. Put it on the TP for 3g less then highest offer. Sold in 4 mintues.

/thread.

expect it to be relisted soon.

Yes because flipping a low-priced precursor is quite profitable..

Vol.5241:

LordByron.8369:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

OP is wrong. Torch precursor dropped for me last night. Put it on the TP for 3g less then highest offer. Sold in 4 mintues.

/thread.

expect it to be relisted soon.

Yes because flipping a low-priced precursor is quite profitable..

If you want to keep dozens at an absurd price you could afford losing few golds.
Its what happened with zap.

LordByron.8369:

Vol.5241:

LordByron.8369:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

OP is wrong. Torch precursor dropped for me last night. Put it on the TP for 3g less then highest offer. Sold in 4 mintues.

/thread.

expect it to be relisted soon.

Yes because flipping a low-priced precursor is quite profitable..

If you want to keep dozens at an absurd price you could afford losing few golds.
Its what happened with zap.

What happened with Zap was inflation/updated legendaries, so if you want to take a gamble and think that’s going to happen with Rodgort, by all means.

It was manipulation not iinflation…

Since i followed it day by day i m qute sure.

Dev could check themselves.

16 => 1 ==> 16 supply

people offering 30% more than highest bid and really few golds less than sell price.

Find me an explanation to that.

Also i know people who hoarded many precursors the day updated legendaries was announced.

And not to make 10+ copies of the same legendary for sure.

Hmm, I’m guessing some people are hoarding pre’s and waiting to find out what the pre-crafting is going to be like. But, I’ve also seen a LOT of legendaries in people’s hands nowadays compared to the past. The supply has simply been decimated and is not keeping up.

Anet pretty much gave people a lot of the required stuffs with Achievement awards!

LordByron.8369:

It was manipulation not iinflation…

Since i followed it day by day i m qute sure.

Dev could check themselves.

16 => 1 ==> 16 supply

people offering 30% more than highest bid and really few golds less than sell price.

Find me an explanation to that.

Also i know people who hoarded many precursors the day updated legendaries was announced.

And not to make 10+ copies of the same legendary for sure.

Three separate times we have had John Smith provide data that showed precursor hoarding by a select few players was a myth.

And I will provide you an explanation. Maybe there are sellers out there who are confident that the price will sell at that range, and they won’t mind undercutting by 1C. Maybe they are not desperate for money, and dont’ need to undercut by a lot.

Also, manipulation isn’t the same thing as speculation. People hoarding precursors isn’t manipulation. I hoarded 4 storms at one time and then held 2 just before the legendary changes were announced. But that doesn’t mean I’m manipulating the price.

Its not that devs are infallible.
Ecto salvage rate, Fractal drop nerfs are 2 examples.

Also if it was suspicious before,

Now we have too many proofs.

I d want him to say there haven t been precursor manipulation attempt after legndary rework….

I think anyone could not deny it at this point.

P.S: hoarding and placing fakes offers IS manipulations.

Buying ALL supply to relist higher is a manipulation attempt.
Remember legend at 1000+ G.

LordByron.8369:

Its not that devs are infallible.
Ecto salvage rate, Fractal drop nerfs are 2 examples.

Also if it was suspicious before,

Now we have too many proofs.

I d want him to say there haven t been precursor manipulation attempt after legndary rework….

I think anyone could not deny it at this point.

P.S: hoarding and placing fakes offers IS manipulations.

Buying ALL supply to relist higher is a manipulation attempt.
Remember legend at 1000+ G.

oh yeah legend at 1000+G…

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Dusk-sold-out-1-Left/first

/thread…again

I mean come on, it isn’t even speculation, it is just outright lies at this point… it has been conclusively proven that this so called “manipulation” and “monopoly” just simply isn’t true…

We get it, you guys are poor, you can’t afford the precursor you want. Making up lies to try and punish players who are better off isn’t helping anyone.

Nobody still explained why a player should offer 30%+ more than max offer just few gold under the buy price.

Also how supply 16=>1 => 16 in 2 days is possible.

Don t try to tell me they wanted to save 20 G and to waste 130…..

I really want the dev to check what happened last week with zap and tell me its not mamipulation.

Or that some players doesn t have 10 + precursors of the same type.

Then i will post some screens ….

LordByron.8369:

Its not that devs are infallible.
Ecto salvage rate, Fractal drop nerfs are 2 examples.

Also if it was suspicious before,

Now we have too many proofs.

I d want him to say there haven t been precursor manipulation attempt after legndary rework….

I think anyone could not deny it at this point.

P.S: hoarding and placing fakes offers IS manipulations.

Buying ALL supply to relist higher is a manipulation attempt.
Remember legend at 1000+ G.

Why is hoarding manipulation? I’m not setting any prices while precursors are sitting in my bank. In fact, I’m waiting for the demand to rise enough so that I can sell it higher than I would have before it rose. That’s on the buyer’s side, not the sellers side. Unless you want to accuse the buyer (you) of participating in ‘manipulating’ the price?

Now fake offers, that’s a little tricky. In the real world you could try and buy plenty of shares through one broker with the sole purpose of attempting to show that there is demand, but there is tremendous risk. But you could also buy shares through one broker and then selling shares to another and give the illusion of a high volume of trading. That is manipulation.

But that doesn’t happen in GW2 due to the nature of precursors, the economy and the extremely high listing fee.

Either way, who cares if someone tries to manipulate the price. They can try to and they may fail. If they do, and someone is willing to pay that price, then great! We reached equilibrium.

Take a look at storm, which I watched since March. For several months the price was between 90-150g. Buyers and sellers were willing to buy/sell at that price.

But oh no! Price rose up to 300G! Does that mean sellers manipulated the price to sell at 300g?!

No. That price got pushed up to 300G from demand. The sellers were more than happy to sell more than 90-150G until the buyers demanded more, all the way up to valuing Storm at 300G.

I could see manipulation happening when someone decides to buy all Storms and relists all at 900G. Will the buyer respond? Most likely, but they’re not going to pay 900g, so manipulator’s efforts failed. Other legit, free sellers are going to slowly undercut the price when they realized buyers will not pay up. But maybe now the buyers are willing to pay a bit more (because they want the item now) and now are willing to pay 400G. But that 400G price wasn’t manipulated. It’s just the new equilibrium.

in few words.

When market flippers has x0.000 to x00.000 gold

and a skilled player playing the MAIN game struggles to have x00 gold

There is a HUGE problem in economy.

What would you think if Tomorrow jumping puzzles would award 1000 G per chest?
I think you would be mad since your gold would inflate.

But i bet if they did a jumping puzzle section and they even had a jumping puzzle entusiast dev, they would be extremeley happy in there.

There is a simple explanation to this. We were told we would be able to craft precursors later this year. People who were trying to get precursors are no longer trying as they are waiting to craft the precursor they want as opposed to not getting the precursor they want and selling it.

LordByron.8369:

in few words.

When market flippers has x0.000 to x00.000 gold

and a skilled player playing the MAIN game struggles to have x00 gold

There is a HUGE problem in economy.

What would you think if Tomorrow jumping puzzles would award 1000 G per chest?
I think you would be mad since your gold would inflate.

But i bet if they did a jumping puzzle section and they even had a jumping puzzle entusiast dev, they would be extremeley happy in there.

No there isn’t a problem with the economy. The TP player is taking advantage of anything from market inefficiencies or even impatient players when getting gold. And the TP player is also assuming a great amount of risk. If it were so easy to make money on the TP, everyone would be doing it. But it’s not as easy as you make it, and you do not always enter the black at the end of the day.

Not entirely sure why you started introducing a completely irrelevant and directionless blurb on JP’s…

I think you really don’t know what you want or struggling to convey as to what you want, so I’ll just slowly step out.

Vol.5241:

LordByron.8369:

It was manipulation not iinflation…

Since i followed it day by day i m qute sure.

Dev could check themselves.

16 => 1 ==> 16 supply

people offering 30% more than highest bid and really few golds less than sell price.

Find me an explanation to that.

Also i know people who hoarded many precursors the day updated legendaries was announced.

And not to make 10+ copies of the same legendary for sure.

Three separate times we have had John Smith provide data that showed precursor hoarding by a select few players was a myth.

And I will provide you an explanation. Maybe there are sellers out there who are confident that the price will sell at that range, and they won’t mind undercutting by 1C. Maybe they are not desperate for money, and dont’ need to undercut by a lot.

Also, manipulation isn’t the same thing as speculation. People hoarding precursors isn’t manipulation. I hoarded 4 storms at one time and then held 2 just before the legendary changes were announced. But that doesn’t mean I’m manipulating the price.

In the case of limited supply items speculation may go hand in hand with manipulation. If I were to “speculate” that the price on a limited supply item would rise when the visible supply diminishes (we know this happens from the game’s past) and then I diminish said supply, I am actively "manipulating " via speculation buying in the short term.

Given demand stays constant and supply diminishes, price increases. As far as players creating demand are concerned visible supply is what matters b/c there is no guarantee that it will be replenished at the same rate. Speculators know this and use it to their advantage effectively “manipulating” prices.

Essence Snow.3194:

Vol.5241:

LordByron.8369:

It was manipulation not iinflation…

Since i followed it day by day i m qute sure.

Dev could check themselves.

16 => 1 ==> 16 supply

people offering 30% more than highest bid and really few golds less than sell price.

Find me an explanation to that.

Also i know people who hoarded many precursors the day updated legendaries was announced.

And not to make 10+ copies of the same legendary for sure.

Three separate times we have had John Smith provide data that showed precursor hoarding by a select few players was a myth.

And I will provide you an explanation. Maybe there are sellers out there who are confident that the price will sell at that range, and they won’t mind undercutting by 1C. Maybe they are not desperate for money, and dont’ need to undercut by a lot.

Also, manipulation isn’t the same thing as speculation. People hoarding precursors isn’t manipulation. I hoarded 4 storms at one time and then held 2 just before the legendary changes were announced. But that doesn’t mean I’m manipulating the price.

In the case of limited supply items speculation may go hand in hand with manipulation. If I were to “speculate” that the price on a limited supply item would rise when the visible supply diminishes (we know this happens from the game’s past) and then I diminish said supply, I am actively "manipulating " via speculation buying in the short term.

It depends on how we are defining manipulation. I define it as a control to fix the price on my terms. So if I go out and speculate Dusk and then go on the TP and force feed the price of 1200g, while creating false buy orders, then yes I’m manipulating. And of course, my attempt at manipulating can fail spectacularly when I run out of gold at my fake buy orders, or when I cannot keep up buying the other sellers undercutting my price. It is this risk that keeps manipulators in check, and which I’ve seen time and time again. Remember a few weeks ago when The Legend was +1100g?

IMO I don’t consider it manipulation if I were to speculate Dusks, drain the supply and hoard them in the bank, while waiting for the buy orders to rise.

We don’t call investors market manipulators right? Especially when they just invest in a stock to hold? An investor is a market manipulator only if they are doing actions which create an illusion that what they are manipulating is doing good or bad.

There will always be a maximum price that a buyer will purchase Dusk at, and there will always be a minimum price that a seller will sell it at. As a speculator, I would say I’m doing my part to making sure we reach this point.

Market manipulation is a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market and create artificial, false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a security, commodity or currency.

Since we deliberately buy knowing it will create the appearance of low supply to raise prices given = or speculated > demand, we effectively (based on the definition) are manipulating. False buy orders are just another type of manipulation.

It depends on what type of investor we are considering whether or not they are manipulators. Secondary investors do not actively have an effect on actions taken, thus they are removed from the equation. Primary investors on the other hand are actively involved with as much manipulation as the law or thier capital allows. *see DeBeers or WalMart as examples

Essence Snow.3194:

Market manipulation is a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market and create artificial, false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a security, commodity or currency.

Since we deliberately buy knowing it will create the appearance of low supply to raise prices given = or speculated > demand, we effectively (based on the definition) are manipulating. False buy orders are just another type of manipulation.

speculation is not manipulation…. people…. If one person buy it all, ya I can see that as manipulation, but the latest info given out by Smith just don’t present that case. However, if you become the market, you are assuming a great risk. You might blow up spectacularly, just like the recent JP Morgan’s London Whale.

Hell Avenger.7021:

Essence Snow.3194:

Market manipulation is a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market and create artificial, false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a security, commodity or currency.

Since we deliberately buy knowing it will create the appearance of low supply to raise prices given = or speculated > demand, we effectively (based on the definition) are manipulating. False buy orders are just another type of manipulation.

speculation is not manipulation…. people…. If one person buy it all, ya I can see that as manipulation, but the latest info given out by Smith just don’t present that case. However, if you become the market, you are assuming a great risk. You might blow up spectacularly, just like the recent JP Morgan’s London Whale.

One does not need to 100% control to manipulate. The info given by JS was not enough to come to any substantial conclusion. He basically never gives enough information to us for it to hold water.

Essence Snow.3194:

Market manipulation is a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market and create artificial, false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a security, commodity or currency.

Since we deliberately buy knowing it will create the appearance of low supply to raise prices given = or speculated > demand, we effectively (based on the definition) are manipulating. False buy orders are just another type of manipulation.

When I speculate I don’t care about supply. I don’t think speculators are buying because they want to give the illusion of low supply. People speculate because they think the value of the item is going to go up in the future, for whatever reason.

That’s how I operate as a speculator. I speculated on Storm not because it was low in supply (it wasn’t), but because I knew it was the precursor for an appealing legendary for multiple classes and that it had a strong possiblity of being upgraded.

Even if I were to speculate Storm because it would be in low supply in the future, it takes two to tango. The price is not set by the sellers alone (you are only seeing sell orders and that is NOT the equilibrium price), but with buyers as well. You are merely speculating that the price will rise because buyers will be willing to pay more.

I’d have to say most of the speculation currently being done on precursors is the gamble that they will be used again for the next gen legendaries. If they are then you will be rewarded in a HUGE way, prices will probably double or triple. However if they next gen weapons use a different recipe/precursor then the current ones will plummet horribly in price and speculators will lose 1000’s and 1000’s of gold. At this point it is a 50/50 guess.

Personally my money is on some form of ascended weapon being the base for new legendary weapons, so I am not buying the 2 precursors I potentially want legendary’s for.

Vol.5241:

Essence Snow.3194:

Market manipulation is a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market and create artificial, false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a security, commodity or currency.

Since we deliberately buy knowing it will create the appearance of low supply to raise prices given = or speculated > demand, we effectively (based on the definition) are manipulating. False buy orders are just another type of manipulation.

When I speculate I don’t care about supply. I don’t think speculators are buying because they want to give the illusion of low supply. People speculate because they think the value of the item is going to go up in the future, for whatever reason.

That’s how I operate as a speculator. I speculated on Storm not because it was low in supply (it wasn’t), but because I knew it was the precursor for an appealing legendary for multiple classes and that it had a strong possiblity of being upgraded.

Even if I were to speculate Storm because it would be in low supply in the future, it takes two to tango. The price is not set by the sellers alone (you are only seeing sell orders and that is NOT the equilibrium price), but with buyers as well. You are merely speculating that the price will rise because buyers will be willing to pay more.

I’m sorry, but I don’t believe for a second that you do not take supply into consideration while speculating.

Again manipulating does not require setting the price, just attempting to change the price. It can be done from either end, buying or selling.

You realize that if the price gets too high on a precursor it becomes economical to forge them yourselves in the toilet, right? While you might not be comfortable with the uncertainty of it all, I assure you that the ability to gain them from the forge through brute force RNG is a control on the price from getting too out of hand.

As a result, anyone attempted to control the Legend market would ALSO have to control, in a significant way, the exotic staff market, and the rare staff market. So while technically feasible for a super wealth player to buy out the supply of Legends, buying out enough exotic staves to permanently inflate the Legend’s price is an impossibility.

Essence Snow.3194:

Vol.5241:

Essence Snow.3194:

Market manipulation is a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market and create artificial, false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a security, commodity or currency.

Since we deliberately buy knowing it will create the appearance of low supply to raise prices given = or speculated > demand, we effectively (based on the definition) are manipulating. False buy orders are just another type of manipulation.

When I speculate I don’t care about supply. I don’t think speculators are buying because they want to give the illusion of low supply. People speculate because they think the value of the item is going to go up in the future, for whatever reason.

That’s how I operate as a speculator. I speculated on Storm not because it was low in supply (it wasn’t), but because I knew it was the precursor for an appealing legendary for multiple classes and that it had a strong possiblity of being upgraded.

Even if I were to speculate Storm because it would be in low supply in the future, it takes two to tango. The price is not set by the sellers alone (you are only seeing sell orders and that is NOT the equilibrium price), but with buyers as well. You are merely speculating that the price will rise because buyers will be willing to pay more.

I’m sorry, but I don’t believe for a second that you do not take supply into consideration while speculating.

Again manipulating does not require setting the price, just attempting to change the price. It can be done from either end, buying or selling.

OK here was my risk analysis for speculating in Storm several months ago
-Meteor is an alluring sceptre with three classes that use it and can use it quite often in their builds, but it is a sceptre that can use visual upgrades
-Some legendaries were updated (Moot, Dreamer, e.t.c.), so it’s safe to say the rest of the underwhelming legendaries will be updated as well
-I know the scavenger hunt is coming, but I strongly believe that it will come after all legendaries have been updated
-As a result of the above, supply will always remain constant and ebb and flow slightly, so the risk in the change of supply will not impact my investment
-Any future increase in price will largely be as a result of increased demand, not lower supply

__

Maybe I’m just lucky because the items I speculate in have very little to do with the supply side and more to the demand side.

Right now with the speculation of orbs and crystals, I don’t look at how many are being sold or how many are on the TP listed. All I care about is demand outstripping supply in the future.

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

You realize that if the price gets too high on a precursor it becomes economical to forge them yourselves in the toilet, right? While you might not be comfortable with the uncertainty of it all, I assure you that the ability to gain them from the forge through brute force RNG is a control on the price from getting too out of hand.

As a result, anyone attempted to control the Legend market would ALSO have to control, in a significant way, the exotic staff market, and the rare staff market. So while technically feasible for a super wealth player to buy out the supply of Legends, buying out enough exotic staves to permanently inflate the Legend’s price is an impossibility.

For the long term I agree, but for the short term it is not required.

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

You realize that if the price gets too high on a precursor it becomes economical to forge them yourselves in the toilet, right? While you might not be comfortable with the uncertainty of it all, I assure you that the ability to gain them from the forge through brute force RNG is a control on the price from getting too out of hand.

As a result, anyone attempted to control the Legend market would ALSO have to control, in a significant way, the exotic staff market, and the rare staff market. So while technically feasible for a super wealth player to buy out the supply of Legends, buying out enough exotic staves to permanently inflate the Legend’s price is an impossibility.

I’m not so sure if it is economical, considering the low chance and the very high chance you will spend more than recoup. It may entice a few more people to gamble, but not enough to materially affect the price. I think people who are holding The Legend to speculate would have more of an impact than gamblers.

If we were talking about something that can be promoted, like lodestones, then of course.

Guys….

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Speculation-does-not-equal-manipulation/first#post1658479

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Guys….

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Speculation-does-not-equal-manipulation/first#post1658479

The two are not mutually exclusive. Speculation may lead to manipulation. It may not, but again it may. We have to account for the variables of the topic to come to some form of conclusion. In this case we are talking about a sub-market with small and very inelastic supply (given anet doesn’t throw another karka chest at us). Hence it does not behave the same as a sub-market with a relatively large elastic supply.

Essence Snow.3194:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Guys….

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Speculation-does-not-equal-manipulation/first#post1658479

The two are not mutually exclusive. Speculation may lead to manipulation. It may not, but again it may. We have to account for the variables of the topic to come to some form of conclusion. In this case we are talking about a sub-market with small and very inelastic supply (given anet doesn’t throw another karka chest at us). Hence it does not behave the same as a sub-market with a relatively large elastic supply.

Still, the same applies here. John’s data showed unique sellers and unique buyers of Dusk. There may have been one or two people who sold multiples (no more than 2). What’s happening to Precursors isn’t manipulation, but rather panicking players who desperately want a particular Legendary. Impatience is proving costly to them, and highly profitable to Speculators.

Vol.5241:

Nike Porphyrogenita.8137:

You realize that if the price gets too high on a precursor it becomes economical to forge them yourselves in the toilet, right? While you might not be comfortable with the uncertainty of it all, I assure you that the ability to gain them from the forge through brute force RNG is a control on the price from getting too out of hand.

As a result, anyone attempted to control the Legend market would ALSO have to control, in a significant way, the exotic staff market, and the rare staff market. So while technically feasible for a super wealth player to buy out the supply of Legends, buying out enough exotic staves to permanently inflate the Legend’s price is an impossibility.

I’m not so sure if it is economical, considering the low chance and the very high chance you will spend more than recoup. It may entice a few more people to gamble, but not enough to materially affect the price. I think people who are holding The Legend to speculate would have more of an impact than gamblers.

If we were talking about something that can be promoted, like lodestones, then of course.

Perhaps my small sample size is an issue, but in all the times I’ve forged a precursor (3) they can in 10-20% cheaper than the lowest sell price on the TP. I consider it above average luck because, after all, if it were always that cheap everyone with the necessary start up capital would do it.

However, I would argue that for a 300g precursor it makes no sense to do. However, once precursors get above 800g, it would insane to NOT try to forge it. the idea of a 1000g precursor, without a corresponding rise in the price of related exotics, seems unsustainable with what we believe we know about the rates of obtaining precursors through the forge.

I knew I forgot to set my clock. Thanks for making another Legendary-related QQ thread.

What do you think people are doing with all those exotics they are crafting for level 500? Not everyone is going salvage them.

John Smith has posted here several times with the data to show that no one individual has been capable of manipulating Precursor prices. It’s not outside the realms of possibility (and it could certainly happen to some other rare items that don’t cost near the amount the more valuable Precursors do), but someone would need very deep pockets AND a lot of time spent monitoring the TP to pull it off.

Moreover, I think that if ANet were to notice that somebody was trying to corner the market, and were succeeding in doing so, they’d take steps to intervene. I don’t think they’d want the playerbase to think that a few ultra-rich individuals were managing to control the market, as it would very damaging to trust in the TP.

Time and time again they have shown they don’t intervene..

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Essence Snow.3194:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Guys….

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Speculation-does-not-equal-manipulation/first#post1658479

The two are not mutually exclusive. Speculation may lead to manipulation. It may not, but again it may. We have to account for the variables of the topic to come to some form of conclusion. In this case we are talking about a sub-market with small and very inelastic supply (given anet doesn’t throw another karka chest at us). Hence it does not behave the same as a sub-market with a relatively large elastic supply.

Still, the same applies here. John’s data showed unique sellers and unique buyers of Dusk. There may have been one or two people who sold multiples (no more than 2). What’s happening to Precursors isn’t manipulation, but rather panicking players who desperately want a particular Legendary. Impatience is proving costly to them, and highly profitable to Speculators.

That data only showed that over the course of 1 day there were multiple unique sellers of 1 type of precursor and a few selling a couple over the course of 1 day of 1 type of precursor. That is simply not enough to draw a valid conclusion from.

Every trader knows when you sell you have to consider the demand, how fast you items may sell, and how many other players might be selling as well. In the case of the items in question it would very inadvisable to post all of one’s assets (of the same type) at the same time. Only posting one (again of the same type) at a time helps to minimize possible losses.

I’m not necessarily saying it is or is not happening now. What I am saying is that it (short term manipulation) is completely possible, most likely probable, and definitely has happened in the past on some items (not necessarily percursors).

Gasoline.2570:

Time and time again they have shown they don’t intervene..

They intervened with Vanilla Beans. They intervened again with Crystalline Dust. The key here was that supply of the items was so low that it was interferring with the ability of many players to craft/make the things they needed.

The reason why they haven’t intervened with Precursors so far is likely because Legendaries are intended to be items that only a small amount of the player base would obtain. (And even that’s not likely the case, as John’s data suggests that at least one of each Legendary is being created every single day.) But the moment that a player is able to intentionally set up a road block on the way to a Legendary and charge other players fees to pass, I’m certain that ANet would step in.

I start to believe anet can be a little biased because players should be able to obtain items equally playing any part of the game.

That works for everything about TP.

Seems that market flipping and stuff like that is the only way now to get top tier equipment.

From asncended to legendaries (or just give all their savins to speculators another unethical thing).