Most people in these forums understand how the economy works. We know that each decision has consequences. Oversupply an item, and you ruin it’s value. Pretty straight forward. Anet makes intended changes that shift the velocity, but only after considering all the outcomes. You think Elder Wood is worthless now…
And I think I’ve made clear that I understand those systems too, which is why they should not oversupply anything, but rather appropriate-supply things. Right now precursors are undersupplied, they should make them more supplied, but not oversupplied. Supply should never be over demand. And then this will of course increase demand for ancillary materials, so they should increase supply of these, but never over supply them, just supply them adequately to the increased demand and no more than that.
They have done similar massive shifts in the past, and it’s worked out, so enough with the hysterics about how it’ll ruin the economy.
Precursor crafting, without proper gates, would shock the economy.
Which is why nobody is suggesting they shouldn’t implement proper gates. Nobody is suggesting as an ideal goal that they should just let you craft infinite re-sellable precursors or anything.
Why can’t you engage on this topic without resorting to strawman after strawman?
The rest of the legendary process works perfectly as a long-term goal: assemble the gifts bit by bit, one by one, over whatever time frame works for you (even if it’s a year or more), and then you get to the precursor and you have to grind gold, either to pay the Toilet or to pay someone much luckier than you. That’s where the whole thing falls apart.
You need 250 of each t6 mat. When a t6 mat drops in a dungeon you are 1/2000th closer to that goal.
Dusk costs 1500. When you complete a dungeon and 1g drops, you are 1/1500th closer.
I don’t see the difference. It’s incremental progression. The only thing I can think of is the belief that inflation is constantly moving the goal post, but that hasn’t been particularly true for the last two months and 2 months is plenty of time to get gold for a Dusk if that was what you desired.
The rest of the legendary process works perfectly as a long-term goal: assemble the gifts bit by bit, one by one, over whatever time frame works for you (even if it’s a year or more), and then you get to the precursor and you have to grind gold, either to pay the Toilet or to pay someone much luckier than you. That’s where the whole thing falls apart.
You need 250 of each t6 mat. When a t6 mat drops in a dungeon you are 1/2000th closer to that goal.
Dusk costs 1500. When you complete a dungeon and 1g drops, you are 1/1500th closer.
I don’t see the difference. It’s incremental progression. The only thing I can think of is the belief that inflation is constantly moving the goal post, but that hasn’t been particularly true for the last two months and 2 months is plenty of time to get gold for a Dusk if that was what you desired.
the price of dusk changes over time, you are not 1/1500 closer to your goal when you complete a dungeon. by the time you get 1500 it maybe be 2k, by the time you get 2k it maybe 2.2k.
only once you surpass the earning speed of inflation do you make progress, and even then how much progress you make is still relative.
someone who earned one gold a day in the beginning of the game could get a precursor in like 120-250 days. someone who earns one gold a day now needs an infinite amount of days because in the last 90 days, dusk has gone up 120 gold. and that is the difference/problem with high price precursors
It’s not difficult to earn enough gold to beat inflation. Do not confuse inflation with changes that directly impact supply and/or demand.
(edited by Ayrilana.1396)
It’s not difficult to earn enough gold to beat inflation. Do not confuse inflation with changes that directly impact supply and/or demand.
- The increase in price of scraps and logs last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in price of certain legendary weapons last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices of levendary weapons last April was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices for mini’s last month was not caused by inflation.
- The decrease in price of precursors in November 2012 was not caused by deflation.
Whoops I used the inflation word. I meant the trends for value of desired precurors steadily rises at a rate you have to beat in order to get the item.
Fact is the game has been out for maybe 780ish days and highly desired precursors have gone up about 1100 gold.
Roughly 3 months ago dusks were 100 gold cheaper, so this trend is continuing.
Being that this is the case, one cannot argue that 1 gold gets you any closer to a precursor. Getting close to precursor is more about relative earning than absolute value.
The rest of the legendary process works perfectly as a long-term goal: assemble the gifts bit by bit, one by one, over whatever time frame works for you (even if it’s a year or more), and then you get to the precursor and you have to grind gold, either to pay the Toilet or to pay someone much luckier than you. That’s where the whole thing falls apart.
You need 250 of each t6 mat. When a t6 mat drops in a dungeon you are 1/2000th closer to that goal.
Dusk costs 1500. When you complete a dungeon and 1g drops, you are 1/1500th closer.
I don’t see the difference. It’s incremental progression. The only thing I can think of is the belief that inflation is constantly moving the goal post, but that hasn’t been particularly true for the last two months and 2 months is plenty of time to get gold for a Dusk if that was what you desired.
the price of dusk changes over time, you are not 1/1500 closer to your goal when you complete a dungeon. by the time you get 1500 it maybe be 2k, by the time you get 2k it maybe 2.2k.
only once you surpass the earning speed of inflation do you make progress, and even then how much progress you make is still relative.
someone who earned one gold a day in the beginning of the game could get a precursor in like 120-250 days. someone who earns one gold a day now needs an infinite amount of days because in the last 90 days, dusk has gone up 120 gold. and that is the difference/problem with high price precursors
Wow. I even addressed you bad point premptively when I mentioned how the price hasnt really risen in the last two months and you STILL went with it anyway. did you fail to read it? Did you fail to believe it?
So I’ll say it again; the price of Dusk has been stable for over 60 days. 60 days is more than enough time to get that much gold without really going out of your way to do so. So now whats your excuse?
Precursor crafting, without proper gates, would shock the economy.
Which is why nobody is suggesting they shouldn’t implement proper gates. Nobody is suggesting as an ideal goal that they should just let you craft infinite re-sellable precursors or anything.
Why can’t you engage on this topic without resorting to strawman after strawman?
I think Smooth Penguin resorts to strawmen and refuses to acknowledge the existence of a “middle ground” between the status quo and free precursors for all, because his arguments are generally weak.
He makes some valid points about economic stability. But then the ideas of a “middle ground” or “cautious gradual changes” are possible counter-arguments that make details complicated and murky.
It’s easier for him to pretend that such ideas don’t exist, and say that everyone just wants precursors for no effort. Also, he really likes saying that people are “entitled”, so that gives more opportunities to do so.
Much of the rest of his posts boils down to “status quo is good because status quo is good” and lecturing you if you don’t believe that deprivation is glorious and honorable.
Smooth Penguin possibly has beliefs along the lines of:
- Grinding builds character
- High prices are inherently good
- Rare items make you special and better than other people
Otherwise he wouldn’t say things like this:
Over supply of an item killed the demand. This is what’ll happen if the Entitled players get their way, and have everything they ever desired to drop frequently. More Dusk -> more Twilight -> less awe factor -> lower demand -> player demand for better greatsword Legendaries -> player rage when they don’t get their way.
Oversupply an item, and you ruin it’s value
He keeps saying “oversupply”, as if there were some proper price for everything. Prices must be kept high, if you don’t agree you’re an entitled weenie.
(Oh, sorry, I should capitalize the “E” in “Entitled”, for Emphasis and all)
And sorry, there’s no awe factor, the only thing that really distinguishes one player from another is combat skill. Who kills and who is killed? Your skins are not impressive.
Sure Anet has god-like powers over the economy. Look at what they did to some high end items such as the Mini Monkey King and Endless Monkey King tonics. Something that was 1500+ Gold due to drop rates got flipped completely upside down. I’m not taking a slight drop rate increase. I’m talking something ultra rare going to drops for players once every few rare boss kill.
Thanks for providing an example, glad you understand how much power they have. You can clearly see how the prices of items can be very flexible, based on how generous the developers feel.
The price is never right (or wrong). Only desirable/undesirable for different parties.
Why do you think the 1500+ price is “correct”, and not the lower one? Tried to speculate on the tonic and got burned? Found a tonic, and disappointed that you didn’t sell before the price drop?
If it were up to me:
- Make a new, extremely difficult, somewhat lengthy solo dungeon instance.
- Completing the dungeon gives you a choice of precursor. Make this the only way to get precursors, no mystic forge or random drops.
- Precursors and legendaries are account-bound.
(edited by voidwater.2064)
It’s not difficult to earn enough gold to beat inflation. Do not confuse inflation with changes that directly impact supply and/or demand.
- The increase in price of scraps and logs last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in price of certain legendary weapons last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices of levendary weapons last April was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices for mini’s last month was not caused by inflation.
- The decrease in price of precursors in November 2012 was not caused by deflation.
Whoops I used the inflation word. I meant the trends for value of desired precurors steadily rises at a rate you have to beat in order to get the item.
Fact is the game has been out for maybe 780ish days and highly desired precursors have gone up about 1100 gold.
Roughly 3 months ago dusks were 100 gold cheaper, so this trend is continuing.Being that this is the case, one cannot argue that 1 gold gets you any closer to a precursor. Getting close to precursor is more about relative earning than absolute value.
I just wanted to make that distinction as people often are quick to blame inflation when it’s often not the culprit. The prices in precursors fluctuate quite a lot. I’ve tracked the prices for a few and the costs for them have actually gone down in the past week.
The rest of the legendary process works perfectly as a long-term goal: assemble the gifts bit by bit, one by one, over whatever time frame works for you (even if it’s a year or more), and then you get to the precursor and you have to grind gold, either to pay the Toilet or to pay someone much luckier than you. That’s where the whole thing falls apart.
You need 250 of each t6 mat. When a t6 mat drops in a dungeon you are 1/2000th closer to that goal.
Dusk costs 1500. When you complete a dungeon and 1g drops, you are 1/1500th closer.
I don’t see the difference. It’s incremental progression. The only thing I can think of is the belief that inflation is constantly moving the goal post, but that hasn’t been particularly true for the last two months and 2 months is plenty of time to get gold for a Dusk if that was what you desired.
the price of dusk changes over time, you are not 1/1500 closer to your goal when you complete a dungeon. by the time you get 1500 it maybe be 2k, by the time you get 2k it maybe 2.2k.
only once you surpass the earning speed of inflation do you make progress, and even then how much progress you make is still relative.
someone who earned one gold a day in the beginning of the game could get a precursor in like 120-250 days. someone who earns one gold a day now needs an infinite amount of days because in the last 90 days, dusk has gone up 120 gold. and that is the difference/problem with high price precursors
Wow. I even addressed you bad point premptively when I mentioned how the price hasnt really risen in the last two months and you STILL went with it anyway. did you fail to read it? Did you fail to believe it?
So I’ll say it again; the price of Dusk has been stable for over 60 days. 60 days is more than enough time to get that much gold without really going out of your way to do so. So now whats your excuse?
precursors move in bursts, i looked at some random day in july and it was 1360 selling price and today it is 1470 thats 110 gold in 90 days. perhaps for 60 days it will be stable but for enough time to earn it at 1 gold per day it has always as history has shown, gone up faster than it would take earn that amount of money making 1 gold a day. You can say hey, i believe now precursors of high demand have finally stabilized and will no longer increase in price, but everyone who said that before has been wrong, i would go with the data that shows that it is not true, and precursors will continue to up in value.
oh yeah, and the fact that you think getting 1470 gold in 2 months is feasible shows you have a fairly skewed perception of earning, and are probably in the upper echelon of relative money earning. which is why you dont really get the precursor complaints.
(edited by phys.7689)
It’s not difficult to earn enough gold to beat inflation. Do not confuse inflation with changes that directly impact supply and/or demand.
- The increase in price of scraps and logs last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in price of certain legendary weapons last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices of levendary weapons last April was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices for mini’s last month was not caused by inflation.
- The decrease in price of precursors in November 2012 was not caused by deflation.
Whoops I used the inflation word. I meant the trends for value of desired precurors steadily rises at a rate you have to beat in order to get the item.
Fact is the game has been out for maybe 780ish days and highly desired precursors have gone up about 1100 gold.
Roughly 3 months ago dusks were 100 gold cheaper, so this trend is continuing.Being that this is the case, one cannot argue that 1 gold gets you any closer to a precursor. Getting close to precursor is more about relative earning than absolute value.
I just wanted to make that distinction as people often are quick to blame inflation when it’s often not the culprit. The prices in precursors fluctuate quite a lot. I’ve tracked the prices for a few and the costs for them have actually gone down in the past week.
weekly prices arent too relevant, they may have gone down in last week, and are still 100 gold higher than they were 90 days ago, when people we complaining that they were going up too fast. the overall trend is still upward. and 90 days before that they were lower, and the 90 days before that.
i mean we can theorize we have finally hit the precursor breaking point and prices will now normalize, but somehow i have a feeling some new change will spark them up again, history repeats itself
It’s not difficult to earn enough gold to beat inflation. Do not confuse inflation with changes that directly impact supply and/or demand.
- The increase in price of scraps and logs last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in price of certain legendary weapons last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices of levendary weapons last April was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices for mini’s last month was not caused by inflation.
- The decrease in price of precursors in November 2012 was not caused by deflation.
Whoops I used the inflation word. I meant the trends for value of desired precurors steadily rises at a rate you have to beat in order to get the item.
Fact is the game has been out for maybe 780ish days and highly desired precursors have gone up about 1100 gold.
Roughly 3 months ago dusks were 100 gold cheaper, so this trend is continuing.Being that this is the case, one cannot argue that 1 gold gets you any closer to a precursor. Getting close to precursor is more about relative earning than absolute value.
I just wanted to make that distinction as people often are quick to blame inflation when it’s often not the culprit. The prices in precursors fluctuate quite a lot. I’ve tracked the prices for a few and the costs for them have actually gone down in the past week.
weekly prices arent too relevant, they may have gone down in last week, and are still 100 gold higher than they were 90 days ago, when people we complaining that they were going up too fast. the overall trend is still upward. and 90 days before that they were lower, and the 90 days before that.
i mean we can theorize we have finally hit the precursor breaking point and prices will now normalize, but somehow i have a feeling some new change will spark them up again, history repeats itself
They are relevant when it comes to the fluctuations and that you can get it for cheaper depending on when you place the buy/sell order. I’m not specifically referring to the average price over time.
It’s not difficult to earn enough gold to beat inflation. Do not confuse inflation with changes that directly impact supply and/or demand.
- The increase in price of scraps and logs last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in price of certain legendary weapons last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices of levendary weapons last April was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices for mini’s last month was not caused by inflation.
- The decrease in price of precursors in November 2012 was not caused by deflation.
Whoops I used the inflation word. I meant the trends for value of desired precurors steadily rises at a rate you have to beat in order to get the item.
Fact is the game has been out for maybe 780ish days and highly desired precursors have gone up about 1100 gold.
Roughly 3 months ago dusks were 100 gold cheaper, so this trend is continuing.Being that this is the case, one cannot argue that 1 gold gets you any closer to a precursor. Getting close to precursor is more about relative earning than absolute value.
I just wanted to make that distinction as people often are quick to blame inflation when it’s often not the culprit. The prices in precursors fluctuate quite a lot. I’ve tracked the prices for a few and the costs for them have actually gone down in the past week.
weekly prices arent too relevant, they may have gone down in last week, and are still 100 gold higher than they were 90 days ago, when people we complaining that they were going up too fast. the overall trend is still upward. and 90 days before that they were lower, and the 90 days before that.
i mean we can theorize we have finally hit the precursor breaking point and prices will now normalize, but somehow i have a feeling some new change will spark them up again, history repeats itself
They are relevant when it comes to the fluctuations and that you can get it for cheaper depending on when you place the buy/sell order. I’m not specifically referring to the average price over time.
ah well the branch of the conversation i was jumping in on, was the assertion that obtaning a precursor is the same as obtaining 1750 mats, every 1 mat you get being 1/1750 the way there, and every gold you get being 1/1500.
For that point, the value of it on a weekly basis isnt as important as the fact that whether that 1 gold is 1/1500 of the way there or not depends largely on your earning in comparison to the amount precursors rise in price of a long period of time.
Essentially, a person saving 1 gold a day, is unlikely to ever get a precursor at this rate. 2 gold a day, also unlikely.
So I’ll say it again; the price of Dusk has been stable for over 60 days. 60 days is more than enough time to get that much gold without really going out of your way to do so. So now whats your excuse?
Lol, the problem is that you believe this.
Smooth Penguin possibly has beliefs along the lines of:
- Grinding builds character
- High prices are inherently good
- Rare items make you special and better than other people
My assumption is that he likes investing in precursors/legendaries and has several hundred or thousand of gold tied up in items that he would prefer not to tank in value, not understanding that him making profit off of precursor flipping is not the point of precursors.
It’s not difficult to earn enough gold to beat inflation. Do not confuse inflation with changes that directly impact supply and/or demand.
- The increase in price of scraps and logs last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in price of certain legendary weapons last December was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices of levendary weapons last April was not caused by inflation.
- The increase in prices for mini’s last month was not caused by inflation.
- The decrease in price of precursors in November 2012 was not caused by deflation.
Whoops I used the inflation word. I meant the trends for value of desired precurors steadily rises at a rate you have to beat in order to get the item.
Fact is the game has been out for maybe 780ish days and highly desired precursors have gone up about 1100 gold.
Roughly 3 months ago dusks were 100 gold cheaper, so this trend is continuing.Being that this is the case, one cannot argue that 1 gold gets you any closer to a precursor. Getting close to precursor is more about relative earning than absolute value.
I just wanted to make that distinction as people often are quick to blame inflation when it’s often not the culprit. The prices in precursors fluctuate quite a lot. I’ve tracked the prices for a few and the costs for them have actually gone down in the past week.
weekly prices arent too relevant, they may have gone down in last week, and are still 100 gold higher than they were 90 days ago, when people we complaining that they were going up too fast. the overall trend is still upward. and 90 days before that they were lower, and the 90 days before that.
i mean we can theorize we have finally hit the precursor breaking point and prices will now normalize, but somehow i have a feeling some new change will spark them up again, history repeats itself
The big moves in precursor prices are the result of game updates. Game updates are essentially unpredictable unless you have insider knowledge. The historical prices make it rather clear that the price is more or less stable barring demand shocks caused by particular game updates. The fact remains that the prices have been flat for a significant amount of time and no one who desires a Dusk can complain that inflation is holding them back, and that since August it is entirely true that each gold piece has been 1/1500th progress towards Dusk.
And yet updates always seem to send the prices up, not down, so as long as they continue to update the game, the price is likely to continue to keep rising.
supply and demand, these are precursors to a “LEGENDARY” item. its not supposed to be easy.
I don;t want it as a handout, I’m willing to work/pay for it, I just think that the current amount of work/pay is higher than it should be.
As far as i know, its not harder to farm all mats for a legendary than it was 1 or 2 years ago. I would even say that its easier now, after the introduction of champ bags, guaranteed rares from world bosses, precursor droprate boost from the MF etc.
As far as i know, its not harder to farm all mats for a legendary than it was 1 or 2 years ago. I would even say that its easier now, after the introduction of champ bags, guaranteed rares from world bosses, precursor droprate boost from the MF etc.
In two years of play, hundreds of world bosses killed and champ boxes opened, I’ve never looted a single Pre, much less one I’d actually want. I do not consider that to be a viable method of acquiring them.
As far as i know, its not harder to farm all mats for a legendary than it was 1 or 2 years ago. I would even say that its easier now, after the introduction of champ bags, guaranteed rares from world bosses, precursor droprate boost from the MF etc.
In two years of play, hundreds of world bosses killed and champ boxes opened, I’ve never looted a single Pre, much less one I’d actually want. I do not consider that to be a viable method of acquiring them.
Well, maybe you should have used all your mithril/elder wood and t5 to craft rares and forge them along with all the other rares and exotics you got from loot drops and you would have gotten one.
The only point i made was that statistically, you have the same change (if not better) to get a precursor as 2 years ago, if you dont want to hassle with the inflation of precursor prices on the tp.
Well, maybe you should have used all your mithril/elder wood and t5 to craft rares and forge them along with all the other rares and exotics you got from loot drops and you would have gotten one.
Not likely, that would have amounted to a few extra RNG rolls, probably no more than I get in a single night of play. I do MF any Master or rare GSes I find, btw, no luck on that either.
The only point i made was that statistically, you have the same change (if not better) to get a precursor as 2 years ago, if you dont want to hassle with the inflation of precursor prices on the tp.
Yes, but “rolling the RNG dice” has never been a viable way of getting the Precursor you want, so that’s irrelevant. I imagine the number of players who have found the specific Precursor they wanted through random play could be counted on one hand.
So the statistical odds of finding one as a drop are so ludicrously small as to be irrelevant, what matters is the market value. Your argument is as pointless as arguing that it doesn’t matter that average income hasn’t risen relative to inflation over the past few decades, because you could always win the lottery and not have to worry about it anymore, so why complain when you could be buying tickets with what money you do have? Let them eat cake!
Well, maybe you should have used all your mithril/elder wood and t5 to craft rares and forge them along with all the other rares and exotics you got from loot drops and you would have gotten one.
Not likely, that would have amounted to a few extra RNG rolls, probably no more than I get in a single night of play. I do MF any Master or rare GSes I find, btw, no luck on that either.
The only point i made was that statistically, you have the same change (if not better) to get a precursor as 2 years ago, if you dont want to hassle with the inflation of precursor prices on the tp.
Yes, but “rolling the RNG dice” has never been a viable way of getting the Precursor you want, so that’s irrelevant. I imagine the number of players who have found the specific Precursor they wanted through random play could be counted on one hand.
So the statistical odds of finding one as a drop are so ludicrously small as to be irrelevant, what matters is the market value. Your argument is as pointless as arguing that it doesn’t matter that average income hasn’t risen relative to inflation over the past few decades, because you could always win the lottery and not have to worry about it anymore, so why complain when you could be buying tickets with what money you do have? Let them eat cake!
The odds are still the same (or better) as 2 years ago.
Tens of thousands of players managed to get one since release, why do you think Anet should make it easier for you?
The odds are still the same (or better) as 2 years ago.
Tens of thousands of players managed to get one since release, why do you think Anet should make it easier for you?
The odds were bad two years ago, they are still bad now. They should have been better two years ago, they should be better now. They discussed adding Precursor crafting/questing over a year ago. . .still nothing in game. Something should change, which I know you will disagree with, but you don’t have to agree.
The odds were bad two years ago, they are still bad now. They should have been better two years ago, they should be better now. They discussed adding Precursor crafting/questing over a year ago. . .still nothing in game.
That should tell you something right there. Anet is not willing to destabilize the economy this much. The things you mentioned previously are isolated, so when they introduced them, they didn’t affect anything but the singular categories; e.g. introduction of dyes, only affects dye prices. Introduction of more mats for increased legendaries affects way more items including items that everyone uses. Even if they only increase it to satisfy the increased need, it’s not a change they can simply monitor and adjust as needed because of all the interactions and uses these mats have.
… and I would have thought someone so versed in the market would understand that.
(edited by Obtena.7952)
The things you mentioned previously are isolated, so when they introduced them, they didn’t affect anything but the singular categories; e.g. introduction of dyes, only affects dye prices.
I am on the side of precursors keeping the status quo, but this statement is untrue. The dye change had an effect on the cooking material market. I made a lot of gold off truffles as well as mint.
Well, maybe you should have used all your mithril/elder wood and t5 to craft rares and forge them along with all the other rares and exotics you got from loot drops and you would have gotten one.
Not likely, that would have amounted to a few extra RNG rolls, probably no more than I get in a single night of play. I do MF any Master or rare GSes I find, btw, no luck on that either.
The only point i made was that statistically, you have the same change (if not better) to get a precursor as 2 years ago, if you dont want to hassle with the inflation of precursor prices on the tp.
Yes, but “rolling the RNG dice” has never been a viable way of getting the Precursor you want, so that’s irrelevant. I imagine the number of players who have found the specific Precursor they wanted through random play could be counted on one hand.
So the statistical odds of finding one as a drop are so ludicrously small as to be irrelevant, what matters is the market value. Your argument is as pointless as arguing that it doesn’t matter that average income hasn’t risen relative to inflation over the past few decades, because you could always win the lottery and not have to worry about it anymore, so why complain when you could be buying tickets with what money you do have? Let them eat cake!
The odds are still the same (or better) as 2 years ago.
Tens of thousands of players managed to get one since release, why do you think Anet should make it easier for you?
in actuality this isnt true, they were actually much easier to get on release, they said it was a bug and nerfed it, but it has come to light that anet call anything whether intended or not that they want to change a bug.
regardless they were easier at least two times. Karka event and before mystic forge nerf. I think they were also easier first halloween, but i could be mistaken. (it had some guaranteed exotics once per day or something)
anyhow, they established long ago that precursor aquisition was flawed, and too based on competitive gold earning, or a gamble so low that being in the unlucky 20% would mean for most players never getting the item.
The problem is they established this over a year ago, and have yet to solve that known issue. Its not necessarilly about getting it easier, its about having a less unpredicatable method that doesnt require you to beat the general upward trend in cost before you actually make progress.
now personally, i would probably still gamble, but for those that hate gambling/feel unlucky that is no option
That should tell you something right there. Anet is not willing to destabilize the economy this much.
ANet has shown a willingness to destabilize the economy on numerous occasions, this is no different. For the most part, if they do the changes carefully, only a very tiny portion of the market would actually shift, and the portion that nobody has any sympathy for, those who can afford to buy and sell precursors for an attempted profit.
Introduction of more mats for increased legendaries affects way more items including items that everyone uses.
No, the price would remain the same. Anyone using those mats to produce anything that isn’t a Legendary would see no difference in their day to day experience.
The things you mentioned previously are isolated, so when they introduced them, they didn’t affect anything but the singular categories; e.g. introduction of dyes, only affects dye prices.
I am on the side of precursors keeping the status quo, but this statement is untrue. The dye change had an effect on the cooking material market. I made a lot of gold off truffles as well as mint.
Those are isolated markets. T6 materials are not.
That should tell you something right there. Anet is not willing to destabilize the economy this much.
ANet has shown a willingness to destabilize the economy on numerous occasions, this is no different. For the most part, if they do the changes carefully, only a very tiny portion of the market would actually shift, and the portion that nobody has any sympathy for, those who can afford to buy and sell precursors for an attempted profit.
Introduction of more mats for increased legendaries affects way more items including items that everyone uses.
No, the price would remain the same. Anyone using those mats to produce anything that isn’t a Legendary would see no difference in their day to day experience.
These are just ignorant statements. You have no idea how the change will affect markets; at least no more so than the people with the data who monitor it.
That should tell you something right there. Anet is not willing to destabilize the economy this much.
ANet has shown a willingness to destabilize the economy on numerous occasions, this is no different. For the most part, if they do the changes carefully, only a very tiny portion of the market would actually shift, and the portion that nobody has any sympathy for, those who can afford to buy and sell precursors for an attempted profit.
Introduction of more mats for increased legendaries affects way more items including items that everyone uses.
No, the price would remain the same. Anyone using those mats to produce anything that isn’t a Legendary would see no difference in their day to day experience.
These are just ignorant statements. You have no idea how the change will affect markets; at least no more so than the people with the data who monitor it.
I hope you realize you just said the very same thing about your statements.
The things you mentioned previously are isolated, so when they introduced them, they didn’t affect anything but the singular categories; e.g. introduction of dyes, only affects dye prices.
I am on the side of precursors keeping the status quo, but this statement is untrue. The dye change had an effect on the cooking material market. I made a lot of gold off truffles as well as mint.
Those are isolated markets. T6 materials are not.
All the mats that are used in dye crafting saw some heavy instability after the dye change. Those were the 2 I personally made gold off of. The following quote is still incorrect.
The things you mentioned previously are isolated, so when they introduced them, they didn’t affect anything but the singular categories; e.g. introduction of dyes, only affects dye prices.
Those are isolated markets. T6 materials are not.
There are no isolated markets.
Those are isolated markets. T6 materials are not.
There are no isolated markets.
Mini’s
Mini’s
Minis can be bought using gems, which means that they interact with the gem exchange, and they can also be bought using gold, which interacts with any number of markets. If a massive change caused people to start spending all their gold on minis, the other markets would suffer.
Mini’s
Minis can be bought using gems, which means that they interact with the gem exchange, and they can also be bought using gold, which interacts with any number of markets. If a massive change caused people to start spending all their gold on minis, the other markets would suffer.
Did the changes from the mini collection to the wardrobe affect other items on the TP? No. It’s isolated because those items have zero impact on everything else on the TP. Please stay within the context of what was being discussed.
Did the changes from the mini collection to the wardrobe affect other items on the TP?
No, because it didn’t fundamentally change the supply or demand of them, the prices on many of them were relatively stable, but if there had been a long term supply/demand difference it would have had an impact on the rest of the market due to the shift in how people spent their money. For example if they added pet fighting areas or something, I would expect to see the mini market shift significantly, and the rest of the market to shift minutely in response, although it would be difficult to track the change directly back to that.
Now if you’d like to return to the larger point, they have changed massive, interconnected markets in very significant ways in the past, and let the chips fall where they may. There’s no evidence that the precursor market is untouchable just because it’s the pet playground of the wealthy.
Did the changes from the mini collection to the wardrobe affect other items on the TP?
No, because it didn’t fundamentally change the supply or demand of them, the prices on many of them were relatively stable, but if there had been a long term supply/demand difference it would have had an impact on the rest of the market due to the shift in how people spent their money. For example if they added pet fighting areas or something, I would expect to see the mini market shift significantly, and the rest of the market to shift minutely in response, although it would be difficult to track the change directly back to that.
Now if you’d like to return to the larger point, they have changed massive, interconnected markets in very significant ways in the past, and let the chips fall where they may. There’s no evidence that the precursor market is untouchable just because it’s the pet playground of the wealthy.
There is no evidence that the precursor market is the pet playground of the wealthy either, unless you consider everybody wealthy that got a precursor drop.
Those are isolated markets. T6 materials are not.
There are no isolated markets.
Arcane Materials are pretty isolated. When Anet stopped them being forgeable, it didnt impact any other market.
There is no evidence that the precursor market is the pet playground of the wealthy either, unless you consider everybody wealthy that got a precursor drop.
Then why is there a cabal of fatcats so intent on quashing any discussion of making Precursors significantly cheaper?
There is no evidence that the precursor market is the pet playground of the wealthy either, unless you consider everybody wealthy that got a precursor drop.
Then why is there a cabal of fatcats so intent on quashing any discussion of making Precursors significantly cheaper?
I cant talk for other people and personally i dont have anything against a nicely implemented precursor scavenger hunt. But I think the precursor market is quite nicely balanced by the general player base. As soon as precursors drop at a significantly higher rate than now, it will mess up alot of markets because more legendaries are being forged at the same time.
Your solution to have Anet just inject more t6 mats into the economy is not viable either. It would be the equivalent of injecting more gold into the economy, so people can afford a precursor.
I never bought or sold a precursor in my life, so I am not invested in the market. The reason why I am against messing with precursor markets is the implication it will have on so many different markets and the economy as a whole.
I just dont think its worth it because the negative impact it will have outweighs the positive effect on the player base.
Then why is there a cabal of fatcats so intent on quashing any discussion of making Precursors significantly cheaper?
It’s not the fatcats, but rather the people who understand how the economy works who are against your idea.
You want Precursors cheaper so you can afford them easier. Well good news mate! You can buy Venom on the Trading Post for pretty darn cheap compared to Dusk. I mean, that was the whole point of this thread to begin with.
There is no evidence that the precursor market is the pet playground of the wealthy either, unless you consider everybody wealthy that got a precursor drop.
Then why is there a cabal of fatcats so intent on quashing any discussion of making Precursors significantly cheaper?
I cant talk for other people and personally i dont have anything against a nicely implemented precursor scavenger hunt. But I think the precursor market is quite nicely balanced by the general player base. As soon as precursors drop at a significantly higher rate than now, it will mess up alot of markets because more legendaries are being forged at the same time.
Your solution to have Anet just inject more t6 mats into the economy is not viable either. It would be the equivalent of injecting more gold into the economy, so people can afford a precursor.I never bought or sold a precursor in my life, so I am not invested in the market. The reason why I am against messing with precursor markets is the implication it will have on so many different markets and the economy as a whole.
I just dont think its worth it because the negative impact it will have outweighs the positive effect on the player base.
to be honest the market will always find equilibrium, I am sure changing precursors will alter the market, make changes, but whether the end effect will be negative or positive hasnt really been broached, other than assumption that all changes are negative.
The other thing is the item design in this game is too heavily based on precursors/legendaries. For years now it has been the driving force, the problem is that the actual game design of precursors is, and remains very poor. The economy molded itself around this implementation, but you will continue to get people every month complaining, disatisfied, or apathetic about this system because it is not an engaging design for most players.
I cant talk for other people and personally i dont have anything against a nicely implemented precursor scavenger hunt. But I think the precursor market is quite nicely balanced by the general player base. As soon as precursors drop at a significantly higher rate than now, it will mess up alot of markets because more legendaries are being forged at the same time.
Your solution to have Anet just inject more t6 mats into the economy is not viable either. It would be the equivalent of injecting more gold into the economy, so people can afford a precursor.
Ok, what about the opposite then, what if they just dropped the T6 requirements to 100-125 each rather than 250 each? They did a similar thing with Unidentified dyes. This would mean that without raising supply any, they could reduce the demand due to Legendary crafting at roughly the same rate they increased supply of Pres.
I hesitate to go that route when supply-side would work, only because tweaking the recipe would be more permanent, while tweaking supply they could constantly mess with.
It’s not the fatcats, but rather the people who understand how the economy works who are against your idea.
So are you saying that you have less than a few thousand gold lying around in coin and moveable assets?
You want Precursors cheaper so you can afford them easier. Well good news mate! You can buy Venom on the Trading Post for pretty darn cheap compared to Dusk. I mean, that was the whole point of this thread to begin with.
And as has been explained so many times that you’d think even the shortbus would be able to grasp it, The point is NEVER “to get a precursor of any type,” it is ALWAYS to get a specific precursor, the one that turns into the Legendary that you want. Until you can toss ANY precursor into any legendary recipe to turn out the one you want, your whole “there are some precursors that are relatively cheap” argument is entirely pointless. Buying a dozen Venoms won’t get you any closer to owning a Twilight.
Ok, what about the opposite then, what if they just dropped the T6 requirements to 100-125 each rather than 250 each? They did a similar thing with Unidentified dyes.
They also massively reduced/restricted the drop rate for unid dyes.
And as has been explained so many times that you’d think even the shortbus would be able to grasp it, The point is NEVER “to get a precursor of any type,” it is ALWAYS to get a specific precursor, the one that turns into the Legendary that you want. Until you can toss ANY precursor into any legendary recipe to turn out the one you want, your whole “there are some precursors that are relatively cheap” argument is entirely pointless. Buying a dozen Venoms won’t get you any closer to owning a Twilight.
And again, like the wheels on that short bus going round and round, It isnt that the price of precursors is unacceptable to you, it is the precursor you want(and most others want, DEMAND not supply) that is too high of a price.
Ok, what about the opposite then, what if they just dropped the T6 requirements to 100-125 each rather than 250 each? They did a similar thing with Unidentified dyes. This would mean that without raising supply any, they could reduce the demand due to Legendary crafting at roughly the same rate they increased supply of Pres.
The mats are something that can be collected over time, while the precursor is a single, major purchase. A lot of players have the mats already, and are competing with each other to buy the popular precursors or give up and buy a cheaper one instead (as per the point of the thread, you can choose a “lesser” precursor if you are impatient). Lowering the requirements by 100 each would lead to a number of players dumping their excess mats to make the money to get a precursor. It’s good for the ones who can act immediately, but soon the price of mats will crash while the increased wealth being thrown at precursors drives up their price.
So the first few to dump their mats will get their precursors, and the after the cheap ones are sold the price will rise while late comers will get less money for their mats and still won’t be able to afford the precursor.
Anet can increase precursor drops and raise the price of mats, or reduce mat requirements and raise the price of precursors… Neither solves your “problem” because no matter what they do, making a Legendary becomes more expensive. Which is why they haven’t done anything yet, it’s better to let the market determine the prices than try to manipulate the market and mess it up for everyone.
He’ll argue next that they can just increase the drop rate of precursors and/or have a special weekend with an even higher drop rate of precursors to flood the market temporarily to compensate for the demand shock.
What he’s trying to do is change a system that is more or less run by players to one that is run essentially by Anet where prices are capped at what he personally feels is a “fair” price. I’d swear he’d be happier if there was no economy and everything in the game was vendor based.
He’ll argue next that they can just increase the drop rate of precursors and/or have a special weekend with an even higher drop rate of precursors to flood the market temporarily to compensate for the demand shock.
What he’s trying to do is change a system that is more or less run by players to one that is run essentially by Anet where prices are capped at what he personally feels is a “fair” price. I’d swear he’d be happier if there was no economy and everything in the game was vendor based.
I’ve seen someone’s argument that suggested (or outright stated) as such.
I facepalmed.
I can understand the frustration, though. The original design for this was badly plotted, but there’s not an easy fix, since high-end materials are interwoven with both precursors and the rest of the end-game economy.
Then again, the market will shift and adjust if a change does happen. I’d accept that in favor of a more respectable system.
Ok, what about the opposite then, what if they just dropped the T6 requirements to 100-125 each rather than 250 each? They did a similar thing with Unidentified dyes.
They also massively reduced/restricted the drop rate for unid dyes.
And as has been explained so many times that you’d think even the shortbus would be able to grasp it, The point is NEVER “to get a precursor of any type,” it is ALWAYS to get a specific precursor, the one that turns into the Legendary that you want. Until you can toss ANY precursor into any legendary recipe to turn out the one you want, your whole “there are some precursors that are relatively cheap” argument is entirely pointless. Buying a dozen Venoms won’t get you any closer to owning a Twilight.
And again, like the wheels on that short bus going round and round, It isnt that the price of precursors is unacceptable to you, it is the precursor you want(and most others want, DEMAND not supply) that is too high of a price.
yes this is about in demand items, but the system is flawed because it assumes all demand is the same for all precursors. If instead of getting a precursor drop, you got a precursor token, and could select your precursor, the price would likely become a lot more balanced.
Essentially the supply could be more elastic and intentional, they could still make it costly time wise, but with an elastic supply, and less focus on random and more focus on effort, the price would be more stable throughout the various demands.
Then a precursor would more represent the value of work currently required to get one, and less represent only the demand versus rarity.
Essentially stabilizing the prices.
however, this would alter the junk weapon economy we currently have.
also depending how they balance the average time to acquire, they would most likely have the cheap precursors go up in value since they would primarily be created only with intent.
(edited by phys.7689)
Ok, what about the opposite then, what if they just dropped the T6 requirements to 100-125 each rather than 250 each? They did a similar thing with Unidentified dyes. This would mean that without raising supply any, they could reduce the demand due to Legendary crafting at roughly the same rate they increased supply of Pres.
The mats are something that can be collected over time, while the precursor is a single, major purchase. A lot of players have the mats already, and are competing with each other to buy the popular precursors or give up and buy a cheaper one instead (as per the point of the thread, you can choose a “lesser” precursor if you are impatient). Lowering the requirements by 100 each would lead to a number of players dumping their excess mats to make the money to get a precursor. It’s good for the ones who can act immediately, but soon the price of mats will crash while the increased wealth being thrown at precursors drives up their price.
So the first few to dump their mats will get their precursors, and the after the cheap ones are sold the price will rise while late comers will get less money for their mats and still won’t be able to afford the precursor.
Anet can increase precursor drops and raise the price of mats, or reduce mat requirements and raise the price of precursors… Neither solves your “problem” because no matter what they do, making a Legendary becomes more expensive. Which is why they haven’t done anything yet, it’s better to let the market determine the prices than try to manipulate the market and mess it up for everyone.
they created the current state of precursors through item distribution, methods of aquisition, job weapon acessibility, etc. If they change it would not be any different than how they manipulated it when they created the system. Or if you dont consider it manipulation, but grand design, changing their design would be the same.
As for the legendary aquisition becoming more expensive, not really likely, theoretically legendaries have already hit their price point, it would theoretically mostly change the distribution of cost.
Most people actually trying to obtain a legendary would prefer the cost to be more placed in materials, because that value represents a consistent progress to your goal, lets say you want charged lodestones, you can hunt skritt, alchemical bags, sparks, do COE and Dwayna missions. Even if you only get one a day, you are looking at 1/100 progress per day.
basically for many players, getting a precursor is like buying a house, which most americans would never be able to do in their lifetimes without credit. Having to save up 200k for house, by the time you save up 200k, its 300k, then by the time you save up that extra 100k its 350, so on and so forth
the legendary mats are more like building a house, you can get the materials as you can afford them, securing your progress each day.
Ok, what about the opposite then, what if they just dropped the T6 requirements to 100-125 each rather than 250 each? They did a similar thing with Unidentified dyes. This would mean that without raising supply any, they could reduce the demand due to Legendary crafting at roughly the same rate they increased supply of Pres.
The mats are something that can be collected over time, while the precursor is a single, major purchase. A lot of players have the mats already, and are competing with each other to buy the popular precursors or give up and buy a cheaper one instead (as per the point of the thread, you can choose a “lesser” precursor if you are impatient). Lowering the requirements by 100 each would lead to a number of players dumping their excess mats to make the money to get a precursor. It’s good for the ones who can act immediately, but soon the price of mats will crash while the increased wealth being thrown at precursors drives up their price.
So the first few to dump their mats will get their precursors, and the after the cheap ones are sold the price will rise while late comers will get less money for their mats and still won’t be able to afford the precursor.
Anet can increase precursor drops and raise the price of mats, or reduce mat requirements and raise the price of precursors… Neither solves your “problem” because no matter what they do, making a Legendary becomes more expensive. Which is why they haven’t done anything yet, it’s better to let the market determine the prices than try to manipulate the market and mess it up for everyone.
they created the current state of precursors through item distribution, methods of aquisition, job weapon acessibility, etc. If they change it would not be any different than how they manipulated it when they created the system. Or if you dont consider it manipulation, but grand design, changing their design would be the same.
As for the legendary aquisition becoming more expensive, not really likely, theoretically legendaries have already hit their price point, it would theoretically mostly change the distribution of cost.
Most people actually trying to obtain a legendary would prefer the cost to be more placed in materials, because that value represents a consistent progress to your goal, lets say you want charged lodestones, you can hunt skritt, alchemical bags, sparks, do COE and Dwayna missions. Even if you only get one a day, you are looking at 1/100 progress per day.basically for many players, getting a precursor is like buying a house, which most americans would never be able to do in their lifetimes without credit. Having to save up 200k for house, by the time you save up 200k, its 300k, then by the time you save up that extra 100k its 350, so on and so forth
the legendary mats are more like building a house, you can get the materials as you can afford them, securing your progress each day.
It’s not manipulation if they did it as they were creating the system. There’s a rather big difference between changing something while you’re originally creating it from changing something after it’s already been released.
Precursors are nothing more than an average ratio of the t5/6 mats and mithril/orichalcum needed to produce them in the mystic forge, plus the profit margin for assuming the risk of bad RNG and time.
You cannot change any part of the ratio without causing a chain reaction in the prices of everything else all the way down to t1 mats.
Way back in Christmas 2012 when the snowflake debacle happened, people found a slightly better way to convert Mithril to ecto than the standard version. What happened was ecto came down a little in price and Mithril increased in price until we had stability. So why ban all the people they banned if most people didn’t profit much and price equilibrium was achieved through normal market forces? Because the price of mithril rising had significant consequences besides the ecto market. If the price of Mithril quadrupled (as it did in my example) that directly impacts the price of precursors. So the “economic damage” that caused people to get banned was likely wholly unrelated to the original recipe at issue. The point of this history lesson is that you change one piece of the precursor puzzle and it will have wide ranging side effects which are not necessarily in the best interests of the players or the economy. Just because it will be better for players struggling to afford precursors does not mean much, since they may find themselves damaged in ways that make the price savings o the cheaper precursors totally irrelevant.
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