(edited by zilcho.7624)
Rampant speculation on the TP?
Because this game relies waaaaay too much on crafting and assembling gear than on finding it in the game world.
It’s much less of a problem in games where the best gear is at the end of a hard dungeon or boss instead of being cobbled together from rare junk that fell out of a trash mob.
Connection error(s) detected. Retrying…
Speculation isn’t a bad thing. Poor evaluation mixed with speculation is a bad thing, but anything done with poor evaluation is bad. This is a virtual/luxury economy; people aren’t going to be starving in the streets if they can’t pay for their ascended gear, so the collateral damage of poor speculation isn’t really all that much.
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation? Keep in mind that Arenanet have limited resources and will likely be using code to handle their market laws, not real people.
Nalhadia – Kaineng
Why is rampant speculation allowed in this game? This is something that’s bothered me in every MMO I have played, but it’s most extreme in GW2.
Imagine people bought bread for no other reason than the expectation it will be worth more tomorrow. Buying a loaf of bread would get pretty expensive really quick, would it not? This sort of thing has wrecked real-world economies throughout history. It’s something every modern government works hard to limit and control. But for some reason, MMO’s embrace this behavior without reservation. Why?
To be clear, I’m not talking about profit-seeking. (Farming mats and selling them, for example.) That is a normal, healthy activity which adds real value to a game’s economy. I am talking about flipping items on the TP. It serves no purpose and only raises prices well beyond what a player can hope to farm naturally.
So here is my very simple question: what benefit does speculation offer an MMO? Developers must believe it has some positive aspect, because it is allowed – encouraged, even – in nearly every major MMO ever released.
edit – Why did I post this here and not in the economy section? Because I’m not interested in how speculation affects the game’s economy. I don’t care whether or not it makes the economy healthier.
I’m interested in how it changes the game itself, in general. How it effects players who choose to have a minimal exposure to the economy. If I want ascended gear, how does the materials costing thousands of gold add to the experience? Speculation is directly responsible for this situation, thus I ask what it adds to the game. (If that makes sense.)
If I posted this in the economy section, I would just start a debate over the merits and risks of speculation. That is a worthwhile discussion, but it is not what I’m after. I am curious how a speculation-driven economy improves the game as a whole – from PvP to WvW to PvE.
Apparently you aren’t aware of the stock market or the futures market. People buy and sell things based on speculation all the time IRL.
As far as the game goes, it ends up working out well for them in terms of profits. Why would you buy gems to convert them to gold if there were nothing that you couldn’t easily buy.
Speculation isn’t a bad thing.
in this game it is a bad thing
It creates an higher demand and makes the final buyer pay doule taxes PLUS the speculator profit….
Its an extremely lazy, unfair and unbalanced way to address an economy and its not even working…..
I could accept it somehow if exceeding with speculation would result in any risk….(see crystalline dust intervention) but seems its totally the opposite…
Economy developer more than once said he wants to tutelate “the market” (read speculators….).
Example: “PRECURSORS”.
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
If nobody was willing to buy the price wouldn’t be high.
Ranger | Elementalist
If nobody was willing to buy the price wouldn’t be high.
That doesn’t answer nothing. In the OP’s food price comparison (even if it is not too well suited to the case in general), there would be people willing to pay for food regardless how high the end price would get. It would not mean that high food prices were a good thing.
So, the fact that thee are people willing to shell out any amount of money for some things is mostly irrelevant to the question whether high price for those things is good or bad, and completely irrelevant to the question whether market speculation on said commodity is beneficial or not.
In answer to the OP’s question – no, market manipulation (TP flipping) doesn’t offer anything good for the game. Flippers do not add anything to the game – they take from the community, but do not offer anything back in return.
Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Remember, remember, 15th of November
If nobody was willing to buy the price wouldn’t be high.
That doesn’t answer nothing. In the OP’s food price comparison (even if it is not too well suited to the case in general), there would be people willing to pay for food regardless how high the end price would get. It would not mean that high food prices were a good thing.
So, the fact that thee are people willing to shell out any amount of money for some things is mostly irrelevant to the question whether high price for those things is good or bad, and completely irrelevant to the question whether market speculation on said commodity is beneficial or not.
In answer to the OP’s question – no, market manipulation (TP flipping) doesn’t offer anything good for the game. Flippers do not add anything to the game – they take from the community, but do not offer anything back in return.
First of all, TP flipping is a big gold sink in the game, so it essentially does offer something good for the game to keep inflation in check.
Also, flipping items doesnt really change the value of an item, its the consumer, who buys and consumes it at the higher price.
Why would someone sell me a loaf of bread today for 1 silver and then buy it back tomorrow for 2 silver to eat it?
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Imagine people bought bread for no other reason than the expectation it will be worth more tomorrow. Buying a loaf of bread would get pretty expensive really quick, would it not?
Er, so are they re-selling the bread or not?
If they are re-selling the bread, no, bread would not get expensive really quick. You could have prices rise in the short run, but they’ll fall again when everyone re-sells – and in the interim, bread production would rise as producers respond to higher prices. You’d end up with lower prices in the long run. Mostly you’re looking at the negative effects of volatility and cost uncertainty, but outside of huge supply/demand shocks (that are mostly transient) it’s just not going to stick on something like bread.
If they aren’t re-selling it, you just have more people consuming bread. Whether they want it for eating, or for making hats, really doesn’t matter – bread demand is up. What’s the problem?
This sort of thing has wrecked real-world economies throughout history.
It has? I can think of several examples that might look like it, but were really credit markets doing stupid things (mostly due to agency problems, but I digress). I can’t think of any speculation that has inflicted significant damage on the underlying economy. Examples?
It serves no purpose and only raises prices well beyond what a player can hope to farm naturally.
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
math!
25 characters…..
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
It has? I can think of several examples that might look like it, but were really credit markets doing stupid things (mostly due to agency problems, but I digress). I can’t think of any speculation that has inflicted significant damage on the underlying economy. Examples?
Seriously?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
Based heavily on margin and modern credit lending but fueled by rampant speculation that blew up in everyone’s face.
Unlikely to happen here for many reasons, but still.
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edit – Why did I post this here and not in the economy section? Because I’m not interested in how speculation affects the game’s economy. I don’t care whether or not it makes the economy healthier.
I’m interested in how it changes the game itself, in general. How it effects players who choose to have a minimal exposure to the economy. If I want ascended gear, how does the materials costing thousands of gold add to the experience? Speculation is directly responsible for this situation, thus I ask what it adds to the game. (If that makes sense.)
If I posted this in the economy section, I would just start a debate over the merits and risks of speculation. That is a worthwhile discussion, but it is not what I’m after. I am curious how a speculation-driven economy improves the game as a whole – from PvP to WvW to PvE.
You are contradicting yourself here. If someone choses to have minimal exposure to the trading post while crafting his ascended gear, he can certainly do so. In that case, he has to gather the mats himself and wouldnt cost him “thousands” (a quote from you, which is exaggerated) of gold but no gold after all.
In that case we would be arguing over drop rates and not a speculative market.
Anet sees the Trading Post as an integral part of Tyria, which gives players the choice of offering to buy and sell their items at their price of choice, which benefits the game as a whole. Maybe not so much for PvP, as everything you need is free anyways.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
That doesn’t answer nothing. In the OP’s food price comparison (even if it is not too well suited to the case in general), there would be people willing to pay for food regardless how high the end price would get. It would not mean that high food prices were a good thing.
So, the fact that thee are people willing to shell out any amount of money for some things is mostly irrelevant to the question whether high price for those things is good or bad, and completely irrelevant to the question whether market speculation on said commodity is beneficial or not.
In answer to the OP’s question – no, market manipulation (TP flipping) doesn’t offer anything good for the game. Flippers do not add anything to the game – they take from the community, but do not offer anything back in return.
First of all, TP flipping is a big gold sink in the game, so it essentially does offer something good for the game to keep inflation in check.
Not really. It removes the gold from the game, but at the same time increases prices. It also concentrates the gold in the hands of a small number of people. The last two things just happen to fuel inflation.
Also, flipping items doesnt really change the value of an item, its the consumer, who buys and consumes it at the higher price.
…yes, increasing the price of an item doesn’t change it’s value. Somehow.
Why would someone sell me a loaf of bread today for 1 silver and then buy it back tomorrow for 2 silver to eat it?
No idea – but that’s not how the flipping works. Here, the producer sells you the bread for 1s, and you sell it for 2s to consumer. In real world, it is a worthwhile service, because it does offer something – it connects the producer with the consume. In gw2, they are already connected, so the only “service” flipper offers is in raising the final price of the item. Which helps neither the producer, nor the consumer.
Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Flippers only quickens the process of price stabilisation, it closes the gap between buy now and buy order. The good thing it does is taking away bits of money out of the game, as opposed to actual farming which brings in money in form of drops. Both are actually good for the game to keep the economy going. However the rate of money exiting the game is not enough to overcome the rate of money coming into the game, thus we have inflation because we always have someone who have managed to farm more gold, and willing to pay more to buy a certain item.
If flippers do drive the price of items up, it essentially means that you could sell it for higher as well.
I think this game needs more, better looking and desirable NPC sold skins. The price set by NPC would be static, and I suppose players would be less worried about those skins inflating.
The value of an item ultimately depends on the supply than can be found in the world. Remember when Crystal Guardian or even the mini tequalt was sold for 150g a while back? As time goes on and supply kept coming in, it has fallen to about less than 20g. If Anet really feels that a certain price of an item is too much, they could easily tweak the drop rate. However I foresee that this would make it less desirable of an item since everyone could easily get it by then.
1. Speculation and flipping are not the same thing.
2. Flipping does provide a service, it is the most basic form of market making.
3. Whilst there is speculation going on, how exactly do you know it is “rampant” and what metric are you quantifying that with, comparing it against?
4. Why is speculation inherently wrong?
The reality is that this is both one of the most basic and limited trading economies there is (even within the mmo genre, stuff like EVE blows it out of the water).
It is completely centralized, it has insane taxes, there is no shorting and there is no LOB microstructure available to the players.
That doesn’t answer nothing. In the OP’s food price comparison (even if it is not too well suited to the case in general), there would be people willing to pay for food regardless how high the end price would get. It would not mean that high food prices were a good thing.
So, the fact that thee are people willing to shell out any amount of money for some things is mostly irrelevant to the question whether high price for those things is good or bad, and completely irrelevant to the question whether market speculation on said commodity is beneficial or not.
In answer to the OP’s question – no, market manipulation (TP flipping) doesn’t offer anything good for the game. Flippers do not add anything to the game – they take from the community, but do not offer anything back in return.
First of all, TP flipping is a big gold sink in the game, so it essentially does offer something good for the game to keep inflation in check.
Not really. It removes the gold from the game, but at the same time increases prices. It also concentrates the gold in the hands of a small number of people. The last two things just happen to fuel inflation.
Also, flipping items doesnt really change the value of an item, its the consumer, who buys and consumes it at the higher price.
…yes, increasing the price of an item doesn’t change it’s value. Somehow.
Why would someone sell me a loaf of bread today for 1 silver and then buy it back tomorrow for 2 silver to eat it?
No idea – but that’s not how the flipping works. Here, the producer sells you the bread for 1s, and you sell it for 2s to consumer. In real world, it is a worthwhile service, because it does offer something – it connects the producer with the consume. In gw2, they are already connected, so the only “service” flipper offers is in raising the final price of the item. Which helps neither the producer, nor the consumer.
Again, the flipper doesnt raise the price of an item, its the consumer who choses to buy and consume it at a higher price. The producer has the choice to list at a higher price and wait until it gets sold. That would benefit him greatly.
The consumer can put in a low buy order, just like the flipper.
So why dont they do it? Because its more convenient for them to buy and sell directly. As they have been given the choice, you can hardly blame the flipper for an elevated price.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
math!
25 characters…..
No. I don’t mean to be rude but you don’t seem to know what you are talking about.
(edited by Fenrir.3609)
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Olaf Oakmane [KA]
Save the Bell Choir activity!
Save the Bell Choir activity!
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Not sure if serious…
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Agreed. This would solve a lot of the issues with TP playing being the best way to earn money in game, and give all items their actual value.
Every time I suggest this idea though a moderator on here gives me an infraction and deletes the thread.
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Not sure if serious…
I’m not debating the pros and cons of the TP-trading minigame. But to the question “how could you realistically enforce a ban on it”, i believe the solution is trivial.
Olaf Oakmane [KA]
Save the Bell Choir activity!
Save the Bell Choir activity!
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Agreed. This would solve a lot of the issues with TP playing being the best way to earn money in game, and give all items their actual value.
Every time I suggest this idea though a moderator on here gives me an infraction and deletes the thread.
Probably because it is an utterly ridiculous idea which demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of both the games economy and also of the trading activity going on in the game as well as economies and trading in general.
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Not sure if serious…
I’m not debating the pros and cons of the TP-trading minigame. But to the question “how could you realistically enforce a ban on it”, i believe the solution is trivial.
If you’re not actually advocating that and are instead just pointing out how it could be done. Fair enough, I apologise for the comment in that case.
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Agreed. This would solve a lot of the issues with TP playing being the best way to earn money in game, and give all items their actual value.
Every time I suggest this idea though a moderator on here gives me an infraction and deletes the thread.
Probably because it is an utterly ridiculous idea which demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of both the games economy and also of the trading activity going on in the game as well as economies and trading in general.
I cannot see any negatives with making all TP purchases account bound, so it’s a great idea.
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
Agreed. This would solve a lot of the issues with TP playing being the best way to earn money in game, and give all items their actual value.
Every time I suggest this idea though a moderator on here gives me an infraction and deletes the thread.
Probably because it is an utterly ridiculous idea which demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of both the games economy and also of the trading activity going on in the game as well as economies and trading in general.
I cannot see any negatives with making all TP purchases account bound, so it’s a great idea.
That would be due to the complete lack of understanding I mentioned.
(edited by Fenrir.3609)
If someone is willing to pay X price, I will selll at X price.
If you are willing to pay X-1 price, I will never sell to you.
tldr: Deal with it.
Because the more they make you rely on the TP, the more casual players have to rely on RL money to spend to have fun and be successful in game. It’s ingenious really.
Anarai Aeonblade [GASM] – Guardian – DB
RIP my fair Engi and Ranger, you will be missed.
RIP my fair Engi and Ranger, you will be missed.
(edited by Aeonblade.8709)
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
math!
25 characters…..No. I don’t mean to be rude but you don’t seem to know what you are talking about.
Foe every flipper that buy and resell a good, there is a player that has to pay his profit + one more transaction taxes…
In real economy we have producers, distributors and buyers.
A flipper doesn t provide any service as a distributor….
Most of them instead create false scarcity rasing prices at will.
And thus extremely high inflation of high demand items
Common examples as Always:
ANY luxury good
Sigil of generosity
Silk
T3-4-5-6 wood/ore (in the past)
Diversifying also means 0 risk.
TP isn t meant to be a free PvP tool for economy…..or at least i don t think it should
Worst thing is that dev try even to tutelate flippers rather than discouraging the greedy ones…
And i ll end with a question.
How do you think gold sellers makes gold?
P.S. and flipping is even quite easy…..i tried twice making 50 and 100% profit….but finding it extremely unethical and a damage for the game i stopped after few tries.
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
(edited by LordByron.8369)
Why is rampant speculation allowed in this game?
Because it’s a free market.
/thread
Imagine people bought bread for no other reason than the expectation it will be worth more tomorrow. Buying a loaf of bread would get pretty expensive really quick, would it not?
Not if you’re a bread manufacturer, then it’s a miracle day.
This sort of thing has wrecked real-world economies throughout history. It’s something every modern government works hard to limit and control.
Capitalism is a free market, which, you’d note, is what the entire modern world uses to trade: Supply and Demand set price.
But for some reason, MMO’s embrace this behavior without reservation. Why?
Because it stabilizes and make the economy more dynamic
.
To be clear, I’m not talking about profit-seeking. (Farming mats and selling them, for example.) That is a normal, healthy activity which adds real value to a game’s economy. I am talking about flipping items on the TP. It serves no purpose and only raises prices well beyond what a player can hope to farm naturally.
So then if the price of bread isn’t based on demand, how is our baker at the top of the post supposed to make money?
I’m interested in how it changes the game itself, in general. How it effects players who choose to have a minimal exposure to the economy. If I want ascended gear, how does the materials costing thousands of gold add to the experience? Speculation is directly responsible for this situation, thus I ask what it adds to the game. (If that makes sense.)
Because other people want those materials and the supply is limited, thus, economics makes the price go higher until enough people can’t afford so it stabilizes. That’s exactly how every item on the shelves in a store works, from bread, to cars. And if there was “speculation” of massive wheat crop failure, (aka, supply reduction of bread), you will see it’s price skyrocket on shelves. People think the price of bread will be so high in the future (because there is no supply) that they buy it while they can still afford it. Maybe they’ll sell it later for pancakes. That’s real-world speculation, and it’s very very logical.
(edited by Toroxus.9256)
I think the real reason why OP didn’t want to post it in BLTC subforum was to escape the wrath of John Smith. Let’s hope he never checks General Discussion
I think it’s the part where market fluctuate so much in this game.
You have speculation in other game, but the market just don’t fluctuate that much.
Because other people want those materials and the supply is limited, thus, economics makes the price go higher until enough people can’t afford so it stabilizes. That’s exactly how every item on the shelves in a store works, from bread, to cars. And if there was “speculation” of massive wheat crop failure, (aka, supply reduction of bread), you will see it’s price skyrocket on shelves. People think the price of bread will be so high in the future (because there is no supply) that they buy it while they can still afford it. Maybe they’ll sell it later for pancakes. That’s real-world speculation, and it’s very very logical.
Irl governments keep supply moderated. For example if an oversupply of a given crop is expected the government will pay farmers to not grow said crop and vice versa.
That aside I can see why the op wouldn’t want to post in the blc section as it is mainly inhabited by those who benefit from said activities.
Serenity now~Insanity later
Oh no! Someone is able to make more money than me with supposed little effort because they were smarter!
Like Vols said, deal with it.
If you took any economics course through your life, you know what’s going on. It’s apparent that this game is suffering from inflation because there are little gold sinks (not as heavy of inflation as other games, but still). TP trading actually helps because of the taxes imposed which can range from 1c to 100g+. With the “rampant” amount of trading, means a “rampant” amount of money going out of the game.
In fact, I still do play a game where inflation has definitely been unchecked (aion) . Average players usually have 100m+ and items have sky high prices, even for a basic crafting material such as a construction Flux.
Quick FYI before someone accuses me of a TP tycoon in fear of losing their business. I’m not. The most money I’ve made from speculation is when I decided to stock up on Wool for ascended crafting.
Sorry for the typos….
I’m usually typing on my phone
I’m usually typing on my phone
How would you realistically enforce a moratorium on speculation?
Easy. Any TP purchase becomes account-bound.
You can sell everything you harvest/produce/loot but don’t need, you can purchase everything you need, but nobody can purchase stuff just for resale value.
What?!!! This is one of the worst ideas I can imagine. Account bound? Okay. Play this out a bit. You buy level 25 food, bread even, for your starving thief. You buy 20 loaves. A string of good runs and suddenly the starving thief is level 35 but you still have 8 loaves of level 25 bread. Are you going to destroy that bread? You cannot salvage it so either you give it away, destroy it or take up bank space holding it. Do you see out of hand that could get if everything purchased stayed with your account forever? You may as well hand your wallet over to ANet to buy expansion tabs and larger backpacks (that you can’t sell because you bought them on the TP).
I say it a lot, I sound like a broken record, but the flippers and even speculators account for a TINY percentage of the transactions on the TP. The cost of any item (outside of luxury items like lengendaries) is driven by the consumer’s willingness to spend gold and the willingness of the consumer next to them to spend more for the same item.
People speculating the market, as Wanze stated, strengthen the economy by sinking tons of gold into the chance of earning a ROI inline with their predictions/research.
@OP – it is difficult to discuss why speculation or flipping is beneficial to the game without discussing the economy, but I’ll try.
PvP – in general, these players are rather limited to what they do in game and what is required to be good and the rewards they receive. The TP is a way for them to make gold without venturing into the dreaded PvE world. They can laugh at those crazy kids for shelling out more just because they are willing to spend some time finding those good buys on the TP.
WvW – can be the same for them as PvP players. I would also say that they have more opportunities for gold, but they have more ways to spend it. It makes sense that some of them would use it as a way to make extra money without feeling forced into farming mats.
PvE – from my perspective there are a few different types of players:
1. Those that want to just sell the mats clear out buy orders. These players don’t care about the extra 20 copper or 20 silver, they want the cash and to be done. They fill buy orders from all types of players.
2. Players that don’t have time to go get mats to craft something, don’t have the recipe to craft something, etc put up buy orders to get mats. True, speculators and flippers cause the price of buy orders to go up because they are buying that item as well, so in turn normal players have to pay a bit more to get that item instead of farming, or crafting, etc, but at some point it is worth more to go farm it than to buy it from the TP.
3. Those that want to gouge a player for all they can, but still want to sell. These players see the high sell price and match it or undercut it by 1 copper. Flippers undercut them in order to make their profit. The more flipping, the more undercutting happens. This actually drops the sell price on orders.
4. Those players that don’t want to or don’t have the time, etc, to get the item through other means and prefer not to wait, and possibly being outbid, buy the sell orders. Due to the undercutting, the price is actually closer to the buy order price than prior to the flippers, well, flipping the item..
5. The player that just plays the game, farms, doesn’t worry about having extra mats, or worry about what other players have, etc do not open the TP and have no idea that all this is happening.
6. Flippers can be any of the above, but some are an entity to themselves. These players try to buy low and sell high or craft low and sell high. Sometimes they make a profit, sometimes they don’t.
7. Speculators buy items and remove supply from the market in anticipation of the price increasing in the future. At some point, they reintroduce the supply, whether at a profit or a loss.
So for almost all player types, speculation and flipping is generally a good thing. If you are the 3rd type of PvE player, then I don’t really feel bad that speculating is in the game.
Edit: added speculators and flippers as a pve player type, thought it was obvious, but decided to add it for clarity.
(edited by brittitude.1983)
To be clear, I’m not talking about profit-seeking. (Farming mats and selling them, for example.) That is a normal, healthy activity which adds real value to a game’s economy.
But that is an AWFUL way to make a profit. Have you tried T6 mat farming? It’s literally 8th circle of hell Bolgia 4 punishment. I would not wish it upon anyone. Not even the Chinese.
You have gotten what you paid for, all that remains is biweekly gemshop pushing.
Why is rampant speculation allowed in this game? This is something that’s bothered me in every MMO I have played, but it’s most extreme in GW2.
Imagine people bought bread for no other reason than the expectation it will be worth more tomorrow. Buying a loaf of bread would get pretty expensive really quick, would it not? This sort of thing has wrecked real-world economies throughout history. It’s something every modern government works hard to limit and control. But for some reason, MMO’s embrace this behavior without reservation. Why?
To be clear, I’m not talking about profit-seeking. (Farming mats and selling them, for example.) That is a normal, healthy activity which adds real value to a game’s economy. I am talking about flipping items on the TP. It serves no purpose and only raises prices well beyond what a player can hope to farm naturally.
So here is my very simple question: what benefit does speculation offer an MMO? Developers must believe it has some positive aspect, because it is allowed – encouraged, even – in nearly every major MMO ever released.
edit – Why did I post this here and not in the economy section? Because I’m not interested in how speculation affects the game’s economy. I don’t care whether or not it makes the economy healthier.
I’m interested in how it changes the game itself, in general. How it effects players who choose to have a minimal exposure to the economy. If I want ascended gear, how does the materials costing thousands of gold add to the experience? Speculation is directly responsible for this situation, thus I ask what it adds to the game. (If that makes sense.)
If I posted this in the economy section, I would just start a debate over the merits and risks of speculation. That is a worthwhile discussion, but it is not what I’m after. I am curious how a speculation-driven economy improves the game as a whole – from PvP to WvW to PvE.
I don’t mean to be rude, but have you ever taken any economics courses? Or perhaps government? The last thing that speculation does is raise prices.
This is that new sound. Ya’ll ain’t ready.
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
math!
25 characters…..No. I don’t mean to be rude but you don’t seem to know what you are talking about.
Foe every flipper that buy and resell a good, there is a player that has to pay his profit + one more transaction taxes…
In real economy we have producers, distributors and buyers.
A flipper doesn t provide any service as a distributor….
Most of them instead create false scarcity rasing prices at will.
And thus extremely high inflation of high demand itemsCommon examples as Always:
ANY luxury good
Sigil of generosity
Silk
T3-4-5-6 wood/ore (in the past)Diversifying also means 0 risk.
TP isn t meant to be a free PvP tool for economy…..or at least i don t think it should
Worst thing is that dev try even to tutelate flippers rather than discouraging the greedy ones…
And i ll end with a question.
How do you think gold sellers makes gold?
P.S. and flipping is even quite easy…..i tried twice making 50 and 100% profit….but finding it extremely unethical and a damage for the game i stopped after few tries.
As I said, you don’t seem to know what you are talking about.
Let’s make this very simple. Do you know what a market maker is?
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
math!
25 characters…..No. I don’t mean to be rude but you don’t seem to know what you are talking about.
Foe every flipper that buy and resell a good, there is a player that has to pay his profit + one more transaction taxes…
This is where you are wrong. The regular player does not have to pay the flippers profit, as i dont see why the regular player wasnt able to acquire the same item for the same price at the same time as the flipper.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
math!
25 characters…..No. I don’t mean to be rude but you don’t seem to know what you are talking about.
Foe every flipper that buy and resell a good, there is a player that has to pay his profit + one more transaction taxes…
This is where you are wrong. The regular player does not have to pay the flippers profit, as i dont see why the regular player wasnt able to acquire the same item for the same price at the same time as the flipper.
He doesn’t understand that if you take the non limit order option (i.e. you fast buy/sell at the market price), then you are paying for time premium and zero risk.
Whilst those picking up that potential additional profit (spread) are getting paid for taking on that time premium and risk.
Anyone can post limit orders and not pay the spread. If they do so they have to wait to see if they get filled and also wait to see if the market moves against them, at which point they need to relist and pay the TP tax again. Time and risk.
Most are lazy and want an instant sale/purchase with zero risk of the market moving against them. Hence they pay the spread to those that ARE willing to wait and ARE willing to take the risk of the market moving against them and the need to relist.
Why do you think flipping items raises prices?
math!
25 characters…..No. I don’t mean to be rude but you don’t seem to know what you are talking about.
Foe every flipper that buy and resell a good, there is a player that has to pay his profit + one more transaction taxes…
This is where you are wrong. The regular player does not have to pay the flippers profit, as i dont see why the regular player wasnt able to acquire the same item for the same price at the same time as the flipper.
He doesn’t understand that if you take the non limit order option (i.e. you fast buy/sell at the market price), then you are paying for time premium and zero risk.
Whilst those picking up that potential additional profit (spread) are getting paid for taking on that time premium and risk.
Anyone can post limit orders and not pay the spread. If they do so they have to wait to see if they get filled and also wait to see if the market moves against them, at which point they need to relist and pay the TP tax again. Time and risk.
Most are lazy and want an instant sale/purchase with zero risk of the market moving against them. Hence they pay the spread to those that ARE willing to wait and ARE willing to take the risk of the market moving against them and the need to relist.
This sums it up perfectly. Flippers take the profit that the instant-sellers/buyers could have made, and in doing so pay an extra tax which serves as a gold-removal for the game.
I don’t mean to be rude, but have you ever taken any economics courses? Or perhaps government? The last thing that speculation does is raise prices.
I don’t mean to be rude, but (a) yes I have and (b) you need to take yours again. In some very tightly controlled economic models with very strong assumptions (perfect competition, perfect information, perfect rationality, etc.) speculation can lower prices. It is why governments regulate speculation – to preserve those assumptions in reality.
There is absolutely no argument that speculation can and does raise prices absent these assumptions. It creates bubbles, which are literally instances of overvalued assets. The 2007 financial crisis is such an example.
This thread has already proven why the economy section would have been the wrong choice. It would have just turned into a Keynesian vs. laissez-faire war, which is the last thing I want.
There is no question that flipping has raised prices in GW2 far beyond what one earns naively from dungeons and farming. Perhaps a player who spends some time mastering the economy would find no problem here. My question is how a mandatory economy, which is what speculation has created, improves the game in other aspects. There is certainly a way for naive play to earn all the gold you need, without ever requiring participation in speculation. So why is this latter option never pursued?
(edited by zilcho.7624)
I don’t mean to be rude, but have you ever taken any economics courses? Or perhaps government? The last thing that speculation does is raise prices.
I don’t mean to be rude, but (a) yes I have and (b) you need to take yours again. In some very tightly controlled economic models with very strong assumptions (perfect competition, perfect information, perfect rationality, etc.) speculation can lower prices. It is why governments regulate speculation – to preserve those assumptions in reality.
There is absolutely no argument that speculation can and does raise prices absent these assumptions. It creates bubbles, which are literally instances of overvalued assets. The 2007 financial crisis is such an example.
This thread has already proven why the economy section would have been the wrong choice. It would have just turned into a Keynesian vs. laissez-faire war, which is the last thing I want.
There is no question that flipping has raised prices in GW2 far beyond what one earns naively from dungeons and farming. Perhaps a player who spends some time mastering the economy would find no problem here. My question is how a mandatory economy, which is what speculation has created, improves the game in other aspects. There is certainly a way for naive play to earn all the gold you need, without ever requiring participation in speculation. So why is this latter option never pursued?
Speculation and flipping are not the same thing.
Speculation on it’s own is not the sole cause of bubbles, nor does it always end up as a bubble and the recent financial crisis has little to do with this game given a) no one is creating CDO tranches or synthetic assets here as far as I am aware, b) no one is able to short and c) the economy is nowhere near complex enough to see the kind of clusterfk you get in a modern, real world crash.
Inflation in this game is driven by loot/farming, not the TP.
This games economy is exceptionally basic as are the trading activities going on. Those that mention complex mathematical models are quite frankly talking out of their backside. People are simply either using the mystic toilet, flipping to capture the spread, or making educated speculatory guess. Non of which are inherently bad and non of which are likely to have a major impact upon the overall economy. For those worried about market manipultion, perhaps it goes on, can we get some concrete, non anecdotal evidence of it which cannot be attributed to anything else and which categorically proves it is bad for the average user?
Moreoever no one needs to be actively involved in trading to aquire endgame items. If you are not able to earn 5-10g+ per hour, on average, when farming then you are doing something badly wrong. How much exactly do you think you should be able to earn per hour just farming pve?
Let’s say someone has 2 hours on the evening after work to play. They generate 10g (which is exceptionally easy) from their pve over this period. In three months they are sat on 900G or so and that is if they don’t get lucky in that time and drop a pre. Is that not enough?
The trouble is it seems some people don’t want to trade, they don’t want to farm, they don’t save their gold and then they still expect to be able to get the elite, end game items within as short a space of time as those that do trade, that do save up and that do farm.
(edited by Fenrir.3609)
Flipping is the biggest gold sink in the game. If there wasn’t the tp you would be paying top dollar for other gold sinks. Think of paying 10s+ for a wp? Or paying 15s for a basic salvage kit? There are a lot more examples I could throw in there. Vendor prices would escalate. The choice is yours really. I mean how do you think the flippers get their items that they flip? They put in a buy order for a much smaller price and it gets filled. You can do the same. Clicking the buy instantly button is for convenience. Its the consumers fault if they do that. You can always put in a buy order for a much smaller price just like the flippers do.
Flipping is the biggest gold sink in the game. If there wasn’t the tp you would be paging top dollar for other gold sinks. Think of paying 10s+ for a wp? Or paying 15s for a basic salvage kit? There are a lot more examples I could throw in there. Vendor prices would escalate. The choice is yours really. I mean how do you think the flippers get their items that they flip? They put in a buy order for a much smaller price and it gets filled. You can do the same. Clicking the buy instantly button is for convenience. Its the consumers fault if they do that. You can always put in a buy order for a much smaller price just like the flippers do.
Two words for why the masses won’t do this, instant gratification. Most people hate to wait so to those that don’t want to wait, you pay more. I am willing to wait….
Speculation and flipping are not the same thing.
Speculation on it’s own is not the sole cause of bubbles, nor does it always end up as a bubble and the recent financial crisis has little to do with this game given a) no one is creating CDO tranches or synthetic assets here as far as I am aware, b) no one is able to short and c) the economy is nowhere near complex enough to see the kind of clusterfk you get in a modern, real world crash.
Speculation and flipping are the same thing, since the act of buying a good from the TP does nothing to add capital to the economy. Whatever gains are realized from flipping can only come from speculation.
As for your analysis of bubbles, it’s just plain mistaken. Speculation does cause bubbles on its own. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to say failed assumptions (rational actors, for example) are themselves a cause. I guess that’s a coherent position, but it is a bizarre position very different from average human intuitions. Most people only allow existing entities to act as causes, which a failed assumption is not.
About the financial crisis, I never argued that GW2 was vulnerable to the same sort of bubble. I only said that the crisis was a speculation-driven bubble – which it was – and that this phenomenon is not new or unique – and it isn’t.
I want to reiterate tha if nobody is illing to buy, price won’t be high."
Check out this old skin: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/37216
You can see someone bought out quite a bit during Jan 2013. Nobody bought and the price quickly tanked.
Ranger | Elementalist
For those worried about market manipultion, perhaps it goes on, can we get some concrete, non anecdotal evidence of it which cannot be attributed to anything else and which categorically proves it is bad for the average user?
Good post in general, +1 for that.
Concerning Manipulation: First of all we would have to define what market manipulation really is on the TP. For me that would be breaking the EULA in a way to gain gold, dublicating items for example.
Very often on this forum people already cry out “MANIPULATION!”, if someone buys up the majority of the supply of an item, puts in 1 million buy orders for a high value item, creates “artificial” low sell listing prices while holding to highest bid or posting on the forums or on reddit about an item they invested in, in order to create demand.
As i have personally already done all the above (except breaking the EULA, of course, and putting in 1 million buy orders at 1c because its just silly), i can confirm that the other stuff is going on.
However, first of all, i think that manipulation is a very negative word for it. Speculation is a good term for most of it and nearly everybody does it to some degree and scale, even the average player. For my other examples, price stimulation might be a better fit.
But in the end, it doesnt matter what you call it as i dont think that it effects the average player that much anyways, as it is nearly impossible to control the market for any item due to the velocity of the economy.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
For those worried about market manipultion, perhaps it goes on, can we get some concrete, non anecdotal evidence of it which cannot be attributed to anything else and which categorically proves it is bad for the average user?
Good post in general, +1 for that.
Concerning Manipulation: First of all we would have to define what market manipulation really is on the TP. For me that would be breaking the EULA in a way to gain gold, dublicating items for example.
Very often on this forum people already cry out “MANIPULATION!”, if someone buys up the majority of the supply of an item, puts in 1 million buy orders for a high value item, creates “artificial” low sell listing prices while holding to highest bid or posting on the forums or on reddit about an item they invested in, in order to create demand.
As i have personally already done all the above (except breaking the EULA, of course, and putting in 1 million buy orders at 1c because its just silly), i can confirm that the other stuff is going on.
However, first of all, i think that manipulation is a very negative word for it. Speculation is a good term for most of it and nearly everybody does it to some degree and scale, even the average player. For my other examples, price stimulation might be a better fit.
But in the end, it doesnt matter what you call it as i dont think that it effects the average player that much anyways, as it is nearly impossible to control the market for any item due to the velocity of the economy.
You do realize what you describe is illegal in the real world? And it is illegal precisely because it is manipulation. In fact, Wolf of Wall Street is about a man who did exactly what you are describing. (In the context of stocks, it is called a “Pump and Dump” scam.)
The EULA really isn’t the right gauge for what is and isn’t manipulation.
(edited by zilcho.7624)
Speculation and flipping are not the same thing.
Speculation on it’s own is not the sole cause of bubbles, nor does it always end up as a bubble and the recent financial crisis has little to do with this game given a) no one is creating CDO tranches or synthetic assets here as far as I am aware, b) no one is able to short and c) the economy is nowhere near complex enough to see the kind of clusterfk you get in a modern, real world crash.
Speculation and flipping are the same thing, since the act of buying a good from the TP does nothing to add capital to the economy. Whatever gains are realized from flipping can only come from speculation.
As for your analysis of bubbles, it’s just plain mistaken. Speculation does cause bubbles on its own. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to say failed assumptions (rational actors, for example) are themselves a cause. I guess that’s a coherent position, but it is a bizarre position very different from average human intuitions. Most people only allow existing entities to act as causes, which a failed assumption is not.
About the financial crisis, I never argued that GW2 was vulnerable to the same sort of bubble. I only said that the crisis was a speculation-driven bubble – which it was – and that this phenomenon is not new or unique – and it isn’t.
Speculation and flipping are not the same thing. Flipping is market making, you are not speculating on a price change, you are providing a service and capturing the spread by cashing in on a time/risk premium. If anything you are hoping that the price doesn’t change in the short run.
My analysis on bubbles in relation to speculation was far from mistaken.
Tbh it seems you are using a massively generalized and massively vague coverall for “speculation”.
The act of buying goods from the TP is not meant to add gold into the economy, it is meant to act as a service/exchange and gold sink.