Guild Wars 2

Take a deep breath and repeat the following: Speculation and Flipping are NOT the same thing

The both have an end result which the investor wants, which is to make a profit. However, “speculation” is a type of long term investment that the person hopes will increase in value to sell later on. These people pay more attention to potential nerfs or updates, and aim to grab items before demand explodes (i.e. Silk). “Flipping” is more of a short term buy and sell to profit quickly.

Fenrir.3609:

Speculation and flipping are not the same thing. Flipping is market making, you are not speculating on a price change, you are providing a service and capturing the spread by cashing in on a time/risk premium. If anything you are hoping that the price doesn’t change in the short run.

My analysis on bubbles in relation to speculation was far from mistaken.

Tbh it seems you are using a massively generalized and massively vague coverall for “speculation”.

The act of buying goods from the TP is not meant to add gold into the economy, it is meant to act as a service/exchange and gold sink.

I don’t think you have this right at all. You keep throwing out back-of-the book vocabulary and buzzwords, but you are not offering much of a case.

You are blatantly ignoring the phenomenon that is flippers selling to each other. There is no doubt this happens. I would gladly bet you are actually selling your assets to other flippers, without realizing it. You think you are providing a service, because you have no way of knowing the difference.

This would all be well and good if the flipping eventually found a real foundation, in players who actually consume what they buy. But I think there are enough manipulators and actual speculators that there is no such foundation.

zilcho.7624:

Wanze.8410:

Fenrir.3609:

For those worried about market manipultion, perhaps it goes on, can we get some concrete, non anecdotal evidence of it which cannot be attributed to anything else and which categorically proves it is bad for the average user?

Good post in general, +1 for that.

Concerning Manipulation: First of all we would have to define what market manipulation really is on the TP. For me that would be breaking the EULA in a way to gain gold, dublicating items for example.

Very often on this forum people already cry out “MANIPULATION!”, if someone buys up the majority of the supply of an item, puts in 1 million buy orders for a high value item, creates “artificial” low sell listing prices while holding to highest bid or posting on the forums or on reddit about an item they invested in, in order to create demand.

As i have personally already done all the above (except breaking the EULA, of course, and putting in 1 million buy orders at 1c because its just silly), i can confirm that the other stuff is going on.

However, first of all, i think that manipulation is a very negative word for it. Speculation is a good term for most of it and nearly everybody does it to some degree and scale, even the average player. For my other examples, price stimulation might be a better fit.

But in the end, it doesnt matter what you call it as i dont think that it effects the average player that much anyways, as it is nearly impossible to control the market for any item due to the velocity of the economy.

You do realize what you describe is illegal in the real world? And it is illegal precisely because it is manipulation. In fact, Wolf of Wall Street is about a man who did exactly what you are describing. (In the context of stocks, it is called a “Pump and Dump” scam.)

The EULA really isn’t the right gauge for what is and isn’t manipulation.

I just watched (and enjoyed) that movie a couple of days ago. In the real world its also illegal to go wherever you please, collect resources or kill wildlife for a profit.
I also wouldnt “manipulate” or stimulate prices for items that i havent invested myself in before and would think that a future or general demand will be present at some point.
We are talking about a mmo and an artificial currency here, so i think the EULA does regulate what is deemed illegal or unintended gameplay.

If you would want to relate the practics of what has been done in the movie into the game, it would translate to something like me whispering people that i know of this item that i can currently sell to them for 2 silver but will be worth 20 silver soon. If I manage to trick someone into giving me 5g, i just go to a vendor and buy a stack at 1 silver, keeping 250 silver for myself.

I dont do that.

Wanze.8410:

I just watched (and enjoyed) that movie a couple of days ago. In the real world its also illegal to go wherever you please, collect resources or kill wildlife for a profit.
I also wouldnt “manipulate” or stimulate prices for items that i havent invested myself in before and would think that a future or general demand will be present at some point.
We are talking about a mmo and an artificial currency here, so i think the EULA does regulate what is deemed illegal or unintended gameplay.

You are equivocating. The poster claimed this method was not manipulation. My response was that it is so blatantly manipulsyive, it is outright illegal in the real-world.

Whether or not the EULA prohibits it, it is still manipulation. I only cited legality to show how flagrant the manipulation is.

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

Speculation and flipping are not the same thing. Flipping is market making, you are not speculating on a price change, you are providing a service and capturing the spread by cashing in on a time/risk premium. If anything you are hoping that the price doesn’t change in the short run.

My analysis on bubbles in relation to speculation was far from mistaken.

Tbh it seems you are using a massively generalized and massively vague coverall for “speculation”.

The act of buying goods from the TP is not meant to add gold into the economy, it is meant to act as a service/exchange and gold sink.

I don’t think you have this right at all. You keep throwing out back-of-the book vocabulary and buzzwords, but you are not offering much of a case.

You are blatantly ignoring the phenomenon that is flippers selling to each other. There is no doubt this happens. I would gladly bet you are actually selling your assets to other flippers, without realizing it. You think you are providing a service, because you have no way of knowing the difference.

This would all be well and good if the flipping eventually found a real foundation, in players who actually consume what they buy. But I think there are enough manipulators and actual speculators that there is no such foundation.

The point is there’s no good way to solve it. In the real world the government (supposedly) regulates speculation in the markets but in GW2 ANET simply can’t have a whole financial bureau looking into cases of speculation and punish players with some virtual set of laws depending on the extent of their speculation. They may be able to programmatically cap certain transactions to mitigate it but that would just lead to other problems and limitations.

zilcho.7624:

I would gladly bet you are actually selling your assets to other flippers, without realizing it.

I raise you and admit that I even bought stuff from myself once in a while, while buying up the supply of an item to a certain price level and not realizing i still had some open listings in that range.

Wanze.8410:

zilcho.7624:

I would gladly bet you are actually selling your assets to other flippers, without realizing it.

I raise you and admit that I even bought stuff from myself once in a while, while buying up the supply of an item to a certain price level and not realizing i still had some open listings in that range.

And if flippers are overwhelmingly selling to themselves, it amounts to speculation if the foundation is made up of speculators. The flippers at the top are making gold off of the speculators at the bottom, who themselves made gold off of market fluctuation. Speculation is transitive.

But all this is missing the point. For all I know or care, speculation is fantastically healthy for the game’s economy. My question was this: how is a speculation-driven economy good for the game? Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game? Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

Speculation and flipping are not the same thing. Flipping is market making, you are not speculating on a price change, you are providing a service and capturing the spread by cashing in on a time/risk premium. If anything you are hoping that the price doesn’t change in the short run.

My analysis on bubbles in relation to speculation was far from mistaken.

Tbh it seems you are using a massively generalized and massively vague coverall for “speculation”.

The act of buying goods from the TP is not meant to add gold into the economy, it is meant to act as a service/exchange and gold sink.

I don’t think you have this right at all. You keep throwing out back-of-the book vocabulary and buzzwords, but you are not offering much of a case.

You are blatantly ignoring the phenomenon that is flippers selling to each other. There is no doubt this happens. I would gladly bet you are actually selling your assets to other flippers, without realizing it. You think you are providing a service, because you have no way of knowing the difference.

This would all be well and good if the flipping eventually found a real foundation, in players who actually consume what they buy. But I think there are enough manipulators and actual speculators that there is no such foundation.

“Back of the book vocab and buzz words”, what? Market making is a buzz word now? I do hope that wasn’t just a glib attempt at trying to insult me, because it certainly seemed like it.

Flippers will also being selling to one another, yes and? Oh and no, I haven’t at any point “ignored” that as it is simply a non issue.

zilcho.7624:

Wanze.8410:

I just watched (and enjoyed) that movie a couple of days ago. In the real world its also illegal to go wherever you please, collect resources or kill wildlife for a profit.
I also wouldnt “manipulate” or stimulate prices for items that i havent invested myself in before and would think that a future or general demand will be present at some point.
We are talking about a mmo and an artificial currency here, so i think the EULA does regulate what is deemed illegal or unintended gameplay.

You are equivocating. The poster claimed this method was not manipulation. My response was that it is so blatantly manipulsyive, it is outright illegal in the real-world.

Whether or not the EULA prohibits it, it is still manipulation. I only cited legality to show how flagrant the manipulation is.

I dont think applying real world laws and regulations to underline the flagrancy of the issue makes much sense.

zilcho.7624:

Wanze.8410:

zilcho.7624:

I would gladly bet you are actually selling your assets to other flippers, without realizing it.

I raise you and admit that I even bought stuff from myself once in a while, while buying up the supply of an item to a certain price level and not realizing i still had some open listings in that range.

And if flippers are overwhelmingly selling to themselves, it amounts to speculation if the foundation is made up of speculators. The flippers at the top are making gold off of the speculators at the bottom, who themselves made gold off of market fluctuation. Speculation is transitive.

But all this is missing the point. For all I know or care, speculation is fantastically health for the game’s economy. My question was this: how is a speculation-driven economy good for the game? Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game? Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?

If a Flipper sells to a Speculator, that doesn’t mean the Flipper is now a Speculator.

As for the second paragraph, a “free market” is good for the game. Speculation is a part of that market, and it’s not mandatory by any means.

Fenrir.3609:

“Back of the book vocab and buzz words”, what? Market making is a buzz word now? I do hope that wasn’t just a glib attempt at trying to insult me, because it certainly seemed like it.

Flippers will also being selling to one another, yes and? Oh and no, I haven’t at any point “ignored” that as it is simply a non issue.

The term “market making” wasn’t even a remote motivation for what I wrote. And no, it was not a glib insult.

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

“Back of the book vocab and buzz words”, what? Market making is a buzz word now? I do hope that wasn’t just a glib attempt at trying to insult me, because it certainly seemed like it.

Flippers will also being selling to one another, yes and? Oh and no, I haven’t at any point “ignored” that as it is simply a non issue.

The term “market making” wasn’t even a remote motivation for what I wrote. And no, it was not a glib insult.

Feel free to point out the term you think I pulled from York notes.

If it wasn’t an insult it certainly seemed like one and didn’t serve any other purpose as far as I could see.

Which is a touch odd given that a) I’ve not sat here and suggested you get all your info from the Junior Encyclopedia of Economics and b) you have zero idea of just what my experience is in the financial industry (over a decade on prop trading desks (high frequency market making and arbitrage) not that it matters).

Regardless if it wasn’t meant as an insult, non taken.

zilcho.7624:

But all this is missing the point. For all I know or care, speculation is fantastically health for the game’s economy. My question was this: how is a speculation-driven economy good for the game? Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game? Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?

OK; back on point: You answered your first question yourself before asking it.
Even though i dont really see why this is a speculative-driven economy, speculation leads to increased transactions on the TP, resulting in a better gold sink, which is healthy in general for the game and by no means it is a mandatory apect of the game you have to participate in, if you dont want to.

If dungeon runs and minimal farming is all you need, you can close the TP.

Just like the real world, the rich get richer and poor can go suck an egg if they ever want to get anywhere in life.

Aeonblade.8709:

Just like the real world, the rich get richer and poor can go suck an egg if they ever want to get anywhere in life.

Or you can just farm champs, dungeons and world bosses and be rich. Without and exposure to financial risk and without having to compete in a zero sum game.

Aeonblade.8709:

Just like the real world, the rich get richer and poor can go suck an egg if they ever want to get anywhere in life.

I love eggs.

Your point on topic?

Fenrir.3609:

Aeonblade.8709:

Just like the real world, the rich get richer and poor can go suck an egg if they ever want to get anywhere in life.

Or you can just farm champs, dungeons and world bosses and be rich. Without and exposure to financial risk and without having to compete in a zero sum game.

Unfortuately all that farming creates gold, instead of moving it around and having a tax sink like the TP. Which is why pve farming and looting is driving inflation, and not flipping.

How does that end the discussion, though? Most economists agree that 2-4% inflation is not only acceptable, but optimal. Where was it written in stone that MMO’s must have 0% inflation? More importantly, why was it written in stone?

You could limit inflation to a few percentage points without relying on anything like a TP. (It would probably be as easy as aiming for 0% with your gold sinks like repairs and reagents, and living with the clever, non-exploitative tricks players use to squeeze out gold on the fringes.)

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

Aeonblade.8709:

Just like the real world, the rich get richer and poor can go suck an egg if they ever want to get anywhere in life.

Or you can just farm champs, dungeons and world bosses and be rich. Without and exposure to financial risk and without having to compete in a zero sum game.

Unfortuately all that farming creates gold, instead of moving it around and having a tax sink like the TP. Which is why pve farming and looting is driving inflation, and not flipping.

How does that end the discussion, though? Most economists agree that 2-4% inflation is not only acceptable, but optimal. Where was it written in stone that MMO’s must have 0% inflation? More importantly, why was it written in stone?

I didn’t say it to end any discussion, not sure why you would think as such really.

I merely pointed out that you can make (a lot) of gold via non TP routes.

I also didn’t cite any figures for inflation, optimal or otherwise.

Fenrir.3609:

I didn’t say it to end any discussion, not sure why you would think as such really.

I merely pointed out that you can make (a lot) of gold via non TP routes.

I also didn’t cite any figures for inflation, optimal or otherwise.

Except you can’t make a lot of gold without the TP. You might achieve 10G a day, if you play an exceptional number of hours and are efficient.

That is dwarfed by what is possible on the TP. Just looking at the price of Ascended gear makes this clear. If we go with the 10G/d estimate, do you really think one piece of Ascended gear is valued in months and not days? At that rate, it would take nearly a year to finish your set.

Prices are set by active users of the TP. In terms of what a speculator can manage, Ascended gear is priced reasonably.

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

I didn’t say it to end any discussion, not sure why you would think as such really.

I merely pointed out that you can make (a lot) of gold via non TP routes.

I also didn’t cite any figures for inflation, optimal or otherwise.

Except you can’t make a lot of gold without the TP. You might achieve 10G a day, if you play an exceptional number of hours and are efficient.

That is dwarfed by what is possible on the TP. Just looking at the price of Ascended gear makes this clear. If we go with the 10G/d estimate, do you really think one piece of Ascended gear is valued in months and not days? At that rate, it would take nearly a year to finish your set.

With a crappy 53% account magic find I can pull in 5-10g on average per hour from champ farming.

Let’s assume a paltry 10g a day though. In three months you have 900 gold. That is if you don’t get lucky and get a pre during your farm. Are you seriously suggesting that is not enough?

Those people playing the TP take on more risk and are involved in a zero sum game. It is a different beast. If I go and farm pve I know what I am getting (on average) and I know I am not having to compete with anyone or risk anything to get that.

So no, I don’t see an issue with it in all fairness. The issue arises when you get people who don’t want to farm, who don’t want to be “efficient”, who don’t want to actively engage in in the TP and at the same time expect to be able to get the elite/endgame items within a short time frame.

Fenrir.3609:

With a crappy 53% account magic find toon I can pull in 5-10g on average per hour from champ farming.

Let’s assume 10g a day though. In three months you have 900 gold. That is if you don’t get lucky and get a pre during your farm.

Those people playing the TP take on more risk and are involved in a zero sum game.

So no, I don’t see an issue with it in all fairness. The issue arises when you get people who don’t want to farm, who don’t want to be “efficient”, who don’t want to actively engage in in the TP and at the same time expect to be able to get the elite/endgame items within a short time frame.

(i) One hour a day is a day played for many players. And that hours is usually not spent farming mats from trash mobs.

(ii) I am admittedly not an economist. I am an engineer with a degree in mathematics, familiar with game theory, however. And you need to stop calling the TP a zero-sum game.

A game can only be zero-sum in a closed system. When a player farms a mat and sells it, that is a positive-sum game. As far as the math is concerned, that mat was conjured out of thin air. Nothing was taken from the system to produce it.

In fact, I think this is what makes MMO economies so crazy. They adopt zero-sum economics, when they aren’t even close to being zero-sum themselves.

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

With a crappy 53% account magic find toon I can pull in 5-10g on average per hour from champ farming.

Let’s assume 10g a day though. In three months you have 900 gold. That is if you don’t get lucky and get a pre during your farm.

Those people playing the TP take on more risk and are involved in a zero sum game.

So no, I don’t see an issue with it in all fairness. The issue arises when you get people who don’t want to farm, who don’t want to be “efficient”, who don’t want to actively engage in in the TP and at the same time expect to be able to get the elite/endgame items within a short time frame.

(i) One hour a day is a day played for many players. And that hours is usually not spent farming mats from trash mobs.

(ii) I am admittedly not an economist. I am an engineer with a degree in mathematics, familiar with game theory, however. And you need to stop calling the TP a zero-sum game.

A game can only be zero-sum in a closed system. When a player farms a mat and sells it, that is a positive-sum game. As far as the math is concerned, that mat was conjured out of thin air. Nothing was taken from the system to produce it.

In fact, I think this is what makes MMO economies so crazy. They adopt zero-sum economics, when they aren’t even close to being zero-sum themselves.

(i) So?

(ii) That’s nice.

Why are you talking about farming in reference to being a zero sum game, I can’t remember saying it was.

I simply pointed out you can make a great deal of gold without resorting to “playing the TP”. Which is true.

Fenrir.3609:

(i) So?

(ii) That’s nice.

Why are you talking about farming in reference to being a zero sum game, I can’t remember saying it was.

You haven’t actually addressed my answer to you really. I pointed out you can make a great deal of gold without resorting to “playing the TP”. Which is true.

The point of (i) is that, even using your own estimates, 10G/d is still the upper bound for most players.

As for (ii), you never said farming was zero-sum. You said the TP is zero-sum. Except that farmed mats can be sold on the TP. This makes the TP itself a positive-sum game.

About your last point, it’s not true at all for many players. It might be true if you have 3+ hours a day for farming. Otherwise, your argument doesn’t hold together.

And the thread got moved. For some reason, I don’t think the moderator even bothered reading my first post. If they did, I would have hoped they would clarify why the disagree with my decision.

Although things did get utterly derailed, so I guess moving it makes sense.

Fenrir.3609:

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

I didn’t say it to end any discussion, not sure why you would think as such really.

I merely pointed out that you can make (a lot) of gold via non TP routes.

I also didn’t cite any figures for inflation, optimal or otherwise.

Except you can’t make a lot of gold without the TP. You might achieve 10G a day, if you play an exceptional number of hours and are efficient.

That is dwarfed by what is possible on the TP. Just looking at the price of Ascended gear makes this clear. If we go with the 10G/d estimate, do you really think one piece of Ascended gear is valued in months and not days? At that rate, it would take nearly a year to finish your set.

With a crappy 53% account magic find I can pull in 5-10g on average per hour from champ farming.

Let’s assume a paltry 10g a day though. In three months you have 900 gold. That is if you don’t get lucky and get a pre during your farm. Are you seriously suggesting that is not enough?

Those people playing the TP take on more risk and are involved in a zero sum game. It is a different beast. If I go and farm pve I know what I am getting (on average) and I know I am not having to compete with anyone or risk anything to get that.

So no, I don’t see an issue with it in all fairness. The issue arises when you get people who don’t want to farm, who don’t want to be “efficient”, who don’t want to actively engage in in the TP and at the same time expect to be able to get the elite/endgame items within a short time frame.

LoL Trade Wars 2. Sellers are taking risk. Your money is on the stake.

Always though that GW2 is supposed to be played in different way and your personal story doesn’t have TP as a final mission.

As for me ideal solution is to raise drop chance of good items, make content more challenging and make items bought from TP account bound. But ANET will never do this and everybody knows why. They also want profit.

In any case I don’t think this can go to extreme. If most players will not be able to achieve anything without TP play they will leave and game will die. So some sort of equilibrium will always be there.

zilcho.7624:

Fenrir.3609:

(i) So?

(ii) That’s nice.

Why are you talking about farming in reference to being a zero sum game, I can’t remember saying it was.

You haven’t actually addressed my answer to you really. I pointed out you can make a great deal of gold without resorting to “playing the TP”. Which is true.

The point of (i) is that, even using your own estimates, 10G/d is still the upper bound for most players.

As for (ii), you never said farming was zero-sum. You said the TP is zero-sum. Except that farmed mats can be sold on the TP. This makes the TP itself a positive-sum game.

About your last point, it’s not true at all for many players. It might be true if you have 3+ hours a day for farming. Otherwise, your argument doesn’t hold together.

(i) As pointed out, 10g a day adds up to a large amount. More then enough to get elite level items in a reasonable amount of time. Moreover, if someone only has 3 minutes a day to devote to the game, you do no then try and set gold gain to that metric.

(ii) Trying to make a profit on the TP by flipping or speculation is a zero sum. That the items listed on the TP initially came from another source does not alter that fact.

I guess if I only have 30 minutes a day play time and I spend it all roaming in WvW I to should expect to be able to pull in as much gold as dedicated farmers or TP flippers. No wait, that’s utterly ludicrous.

The point I made was clear, within a very reasonable amount of time you can pull in a large amount of gold via non TP methods. You can make 5-10g an hour on average via pve, if you choose not to do so that is your issue.

zilcho.7624:

And the thread got moved. For some reason, I don’t think the moderator even bothered reading my first post. If they did, I would have hoped they would clarify why the disagree with my decision.

This is where it belongs because it is about the TP and how it impacts the game. This isn’t the economics forum, it is the Black Lion Trading Co forum. You really do want it here if you’re serious about being “interested in how it changes the game itself, in general. How it effects [sic] players who choose to have a minimal exposure to the economy.” because this is where the players that have thought a lot about the TP and its impacts on the game hang out and where you have the best chance of having an interesting discussion about your topic.

Besides you might catch John Smith’s eye and he might point out some aspects of the design you hadn’t considered or drop some data on us.

zilcho.7624:

My question was this: how is a speculation-driven economy good for the game? Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game? Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?

Actually, only the first question was asked originally.

Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?
While dungeon runs and farming, and actually other methods, are just as favorable to getting gold, not everyone enjoys that method of game play. I, in fact, hate dungeons and have yet to even set a character foot in a fractal.

Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game?
Speculation isn’t a mandatory part of the game. I’m not sure why you think it is. I’ve played for 16 months without speculating on the TP. I just started recently when I decided that I wanted to complete all my APs, but that is a choice I made and I could have continued on my merry way making money the same way I’ve always done (crafting and selling mats), and at better rates since prices of all farming mats are increasing.

Are you maybe confusing speculation with just having a trading post at all?

How is a speculation-driven economy good for the game?
In any game where items are not restricted to a character, you will have trading between players. The GW2 trading post allows players to trade, in a friendly manner, goods between each other. It provides a method of buying and selling that has no risk. The buy orders allow the seller to sell at a guaranteed amount. The sell orders allow the buyer to buy at a guaranteed amount. Risk is only involved when the player introduces it. This risk is what balances a market to equilibrium. A buyer creates risk when placing a buy order and the seller creates risk when listing a sell order. There is no guarantee that either will be fulfilled, thus risk is created.

Without a trading post of this nature, the player has limited options in selling items they do not need or want. Generally, advertising the item for sale and hoping the buyer/seller is honest has been the most used in the past. Counting on the honesty of other players presents a greater risk and can create a large disequilibrium in prices. It counts on many factors that cannot be guaranteed such as 1. other players being available to purchase the item when you are selling it, 2. you being available to buy an item when it is being sold, 3. historical records of selling and buying prices to know whether it is possible to buy it lower or sell it higher, 4. available quantity is indeterminate at any given time; I am sure there are more that I haven’t thought of at the moment.

You seem to be questioning the idea of a method of selling in game items to other players rather than just being required to vendor or destroy them. Are you advocating for a complete soul bound/account bound method where all items acquired are restricted to your characters? This is the only way to ensure that trading of items doesn’t occur within a game.

brittitude.1983:

zilcho.7624:

My question was this: how is a speculation-driven economy good for the game? Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game? Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?

Actually, only the first question was asked originally.

Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?
While dungeon runs and farming, and actually other methods, are just as favorable to getting gold, not everyone enjoys that method of game play. I, in fact, hate dungeons and have yet to even set a character foot in a fractal.

Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game?
Speculation isn’t a mandatory part of the game. I’m not sure why you think it is. I’ve played for 16 months without speculating on the TP. I just started recently when I decided that I wanted to complete all my APs, but that is a choice I made and I could have continued on my merry way making money the same way I’ve always done (crafting and selling mats), and at better rates since prices of all farming mats are increasing.

Are you maybe confusing speculation with just having a trading post at all?

How is a speculation-driven economy good for the game?
In any game where items are not restricted to a character, you will have trading between players. The GW2 trading post allows players to trade, in a friendly manner, goods between each other. It provides a method of buying and selling that has no risk. The buy orders allow the seller to sell at a guaranteed amount. The sell orders allow the buyer to buy at a guaranteed amount. Risk is only involved when the player introduces it. This risk is what balances a market to equilibrium. A buyer creates risk when placing a buy order and the seller creates risk when listing a sell order. There is no guarantee that either will be fulfilled, thus risk is created.

Without a trading post of this nature, the player has limited options in selling items they do not need or want. Generally, advertising the item for sale and hoping the buyer/seller is honest has been the most used in the past. Counting on the honesty of other players presents a greater risk and can create a large disequilibrium in prices. It counts on many factors that cannot be guaranteed such as 1. other players being available to purchase the item when you are selling it, 2. you being available to buy an item when it is being sold, 3. historical records of selling and buying prices to know whether it is possible to buy it lower or sell it higher, 4. available quantity is indeterminate at any given time; I am sure there are more that I haven’t thought of at the moment.

You seem to be questioning the idea of a method of selling in game items to other players rather than just being required to vendor or destroy them. Are you advocating for a complete soul bound/account bound method where all items acquired are restricted to your characters? This is the only way to ensure that trading of items doesn’t occur within a game.

TP is Ok. OP proposed an idea to account bind items bought from TP.
You still get all possibilities to trade. But you will not buy 10 same items to resell if you don’t need it. 9 items will be bought by ppl who need the items.

WRay.2391:

brittitude.1983:

zilcho.7624:

My question was this: how is a speculation-driven economy good for the game? Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game? Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?

Actually, only the first question was asked originally.

Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?
While dungeon runs and farming, and actually other methods, are just as favorable to getting gold, not everyone enjoys that method of game play. I, in fact, hate dungeons and have yet to even set a character foot in a fractal.

Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game?
Speculation isn’t a mandatory part of the game. I’m not sure why you think it is. I’ve played for 16 months without speculating on the TP. I just started recently when I decided that I wanted to complete all my APs, but that is a choice I made and I could have continued on my merry way making money the same way I’ve always done (crafting and selling mats), and at better rates since prices of all farming mats are increasing.

Are you maybe confusing speculation with just having a trading post at all?

How is a speculation-driven economy good for the game?
In any game where items are not restricted to a character, you will have trading between players. The GW2 trading post allows players to trade, in a friendly manner, goods between each other. It provides a method of buying and selling that has no risk. The buy orders allow the seller to sell at a guaranteed amount. The sell orders allow the buyer to buy at a guaranteed amount. Risk is only involved when the player introduces it. This risk is what balances a market to equilibrium. A buyer creates risk when placing a buy order and the seller creates risk when listing a sell order. There is no guarantee that either will be fulfilled, thus risk is created.

Without a trading post of this nature, the player has limited options in selling items they do not need or want. Generally, advertising the item for sale and hoping the buyer/seller is honest has been the most used in the past. Counting on the honesty of other players presents a greater risk and can create a large disequilibrium in prices. It counts on many factors that cannot be guaranteed such as 1. other players being available to purchase the item when you are selling it, 2. you being available to buy an item when it is being sold, 3. historical records of selling and buying prices to know whether it is possible to buy it lower or sell it higher, 4. available quantity is indeterminate at any given time; I am sure there are more that I haven’t thought of at the moment.

You seem to be questioning the idea of a method of selling in game items to other players rather than just being required to vendor or destroy them. Are you advocating for a complete soul bound/account bound method where all items acquired are restricted to your characters? This is the only way to ensure that trading of items doesn’t occur within a game.

TP is Ok. OP proposed an idea to account bind items bought from TP.
You still get all possibilities to trade. But you will not buy 10 same items to resell if you don’t need it. 9 items will be bought by ppl who need the items.

Can you link that proposal because i cant seem to find it in the OP?

2Wanze.8410
My bad, it was proposed later. Anyway I’d like to see your comments about this.

WRay.2391:

2Wanze.8410
My bad, it was proposed later. Anyway I’d like to see your comments about this.

I oppose this idea because even though i agree that it would halt speculative trading, i still fail to see a good reason to restrict it in the first place. People will soon run out of storage space and would have to vendor or delete items and i cant see that benefiting the overall experience of the game, especially for new players.

Beside the economical impact, i think it would be hard technically to implement.
They would have to expand the collectible tab by 100% to be able to accommodate an unbound and an accountbound version of each crafting mat.

Wanze.8410:

I oppose this idea because even though i agree that it would halt speculative trading, i still fail to see a good reason to restrict it in the first place. People will soon run out of storage space and would have to vendor or delete items and i cant see that benefiting the overall experience of the game, especially for new players.

Beside the economical impact, i think it would be hard technically to implement.
They would have to expand the collectible tab by 100% to be able to accommodate an unbound and an account bound version of each crafting mat.

And if you ever make a mistake and buy the wrong thing or too many of the right thing, you’re stuck with it. You can’t even repost it for a loss.

I would have to rethink how I placed buy orders too. I’m not a speculator, but sometimes I’ll put buy orders out for a couple of different bits of gear when I really only want one of those options. Whichever one comes in first is the one I keep and if I get multiples, I just sell the others and try to cover most of the 15% tax.

Making purchased items account bound would put a serious damper on how much stuff I buy. I also wouldn’t be able to pick up good deals for my husband’s characters when I came across them. I’d probably hoard a lot of things that dropped instead of selling them because I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in the supply being there at a later date.

I don’t see it improving my game experience – quite the opposite – and as far as I can tell the only reason for implementing it is because some folks have a bug up their nose about traders and their filthy lucre. And if ANet did decide to implement it, we’d have to listen about all the accusations that they did it to sell bank and bag slots.

WRay.2391:

TP is Ok. OP proposed an idea to account bind items bought from TP.
You still get all possibilities to trade. But you will not buy 10 same items to resell if you don’t need it. 9 items will be bought by ppl who need the items.

As you discovered, the OP didn’t propose this idea or comment on it, so I would still like an answer in regards to my post.

I would like to comment on this idea too. From what I understand, the purpose of this proposal is to prevent speculators and flippers from entering the market, right? It is just to prevent buying items and then reselling them. In which case, I do not believe it would succeed.

Why? Two reasons:
1. Salvaging an item and reselling the mats for more than the cost of the item.
2. Crafting items from mats purchased on the TP and selling the items for more than the price of the mats.

I believe it is obvious why it applies to flippers. But what about speculators? Well, the point of speculation is to hoard a commodity so it can be sold at a later time. Either of these can be used by speculators that believe either certain mats that can be gathered from salvaging or certain crafted items will increase in price over time.

If this purpose is to prevent speculators and flippers from entering the market to prevent prices increases, then it is only unlikely that it will succeed.

The current market is based on the basic supply and demand model. When you take away demand, and supply stays constant, prices decrease. When you take away supply, and demand stays constant, prices increase. The premise of this proposal is that without flippers, the demand will go down and prices will fall as a result. However, this may be based on a misunderstanding what it means to flip an item. The amount of demand generated by a flipper is directly relational to the amount of supply provided when they resell what they just purchased. When you remove this aspect of the game, all you are doing is removing the same amount of demand as supply, thereby creating the same price equilibrium as before. The price of an item will not be directly affected by removing the demand and supply of certain individuals.

Speculation results in a temporary price increase due to removed supply and increased demand. Once it is reintroduced, supply increases and demand lowers, which decreases the price. It is speculative because the idea is that demand will have increased over the time between buying and selling to cause the equilibrium price to increase to the point of profit once the supply is reintroduced to the market. If demand has not changed or has declined, then the profit doesn’t exist. Removing this could cause the price increase to happen significantly quicker as demand increases, but supply does not. This could actually cause a much higher price in the long run, and for a longer duration, because supply will be depleted without the ability for more to be introduced fast enough to meet the surge in demand.

However, there are also other ways that the market could fluctuate with this proposal:
1. Consumer hesitancy. Because an item is bound on purchase, there is more risk involved in purchasing it. If consumers are risk adverse, then demand will decrease and prices will drop. This could result in many items being valued less than vendor value.
2. Consumer fear. Again, because an item is bound on purchase, consumers may fear the item will be unavailable in the future and buy it as a way to protect future interests. This could cause items with little value to be overvalued due to fear of scarcity.
3. Scarcity. Items that are not farmed or crafted from farming will eventually fall off the market place. Those prices will increase over time as supply becomes depleted.

I do not find the potential results of this proposal beneficial to the game.

Bread goes stale. You can hold things in GW2 for all eternity, with no decay.

Fenrir.3609:

the economy is nowhere near complex enough to see the kind of clusterfk you get in a modern, real world crash.

Basically this.

You get total clusterkittens when you get to do things like buy up a bunch of an asset, then use that as collateral with zero down to buy more of that asset, and repeating until you’re leveraged to hell. You get it when credit markets see prices moving in the same direction consistently and decide that things like lending standards and reserve requirements don’t apply any more. You get it when what you are hedging has so many moving parts that you can’t even understand all the correlations any more, so you just assume they’ll average out.

Without credit and contracts the market is really, really simple. Some guy buying up a bunch of some commodity, sitting on it, and re-selling it later is just so utterly inconsequential and boring that it is hardly worth mentioning. You just can’t break anything badly without financial instruments, and lots of them.

To people saying that ANet should make items account-bound when you buy them from the trading post, that is utterly absurd.

What if I want to buy a gift for someone?
What if some idiot forgot his food for the dungeon/fractal/WvW and I want to send him a few bits of mine?
What if I’m following a commander in WvW and want to send them a few siege pieces that I bought on the TP?
What if you’re buying the item to process it and resell it, like Copper Ore -> Bronze Bar? Are those items still soulbound? What about the items you make from that? This is in particular will raise the price of your Ascended materials through the roof.
What if the value of a lot of items plummets because of this change and farmers can no longer gather them for profit?
What if the value of a lot of items soars because a huge number of items are suddenly taken out of the economy?
What if people start spamming map chat because trading these commodities is no longer functional and instead they handle it through the mail system? The easily scammed mail system?

The point of the Trading Post is to make buying and selling items insanely easy, and that’s exactly what it does. Making trading post items account bound would absolutely obliterate this.

Here’s an idea, limit the number of items each player can list on the TP at the same time. Not stack size but entries. No progressive taxation, no account binding, no time limits. Say 50 entries max, combined buy and sell orders per account. Even base it on highest level character (start at 10 and get 1 additional entry for every two levels).

It actually surprised me that I could list so many items and have so many bids at once when I started to use the TP.

Behellagh.1468:

Here’s an idea, limit the number of items each player can list on the TP at the same time. Not stack size but entries. No progressive taxation, no account binding, no time limits. Say 50 entries max, combined buy and sell orders per account. Even base it on highest level character (start at 10 and get 1 additional entry for every two levels).

It actually surprised me that I could list so many items and have so many bids at once when I started to use the TP.

But . . . why? What purpose does this serve? (Ignoring the negative effects of this, such as vastly increasing the spread on items.)

Smooth Penguin.5294:

zilcho.7624:

Wanze.8410:

zilcho.7624:

I would gladly bet you are actually selling your assets to other flippers, without realizing it.

I raise you and admit that I even bought stuff from myself once in a while, while buying up the supply of an item to a certain price level and not realizing i still had some open listings in that range.

And if flippers are overwhelmingly selling to themselves, it amounts to speculation if the foundation is made up of speculators. The flippers at the top are making gold off of the speculators at the bottom, who themselves made gold off of market fluctuation. Speculation is transitive.

But all this is missing the point. For all I know or care, speculation is fantastically health for the game’s economy. My question was this: how is a speculation-driven economy good for the game? Why should speculation be a mandatory aspect of the game? Why favor that for a system where dungeon runs and minimal farming are all you need?

If a Flipper sells to a Speculator, that doesn’t mean the Flipper is now a Speculator.

As for the second paragraph, a “free market” is good for the game. Speculation is a part of that market, and it’s not mandatory by any means.

I dont’ know why you care so much about definition. Like you are a english teacher or something.

I presume the topic is about why investing is such a big part of this game. And how the market fluctuate so much.

Definitions matter hugely. If each person in a discussion has a different personal understanding of what a term means, there can be no meeting of the minds. It’s not pedantry.

A thinks “blue” means water. B thinks “blue” means diamonds. How are they supposed to agree on the value of blue things?

Donari.5237:

Definitions matter hugely. If each person in a discussion has a different personal understanding of what a term means, there can be no meeting of the minds. It’s not pedantry.

A thinks “blue” means water. B thinks “blue” means diamonds. How are they supposed to agree on the value of blue things?

The just of it is that some posters will continually argue semantics instead of the topic at hand, even so after full well knowing the other side’s meaning.

^ Maybe he spend too much time arguing about the definition of terms and forget to talk about the context of the topic is about.

For example he keeps talking about players setting the price on precursor in a topic called if precursor is too expensive. The topic is about if precursor is too expensive, it is not about players set the price and not Anet.

I don’t know why he keep talking about different topic. If he want to talk about different topic he could creat a new post.

Bunda.2691:

Behellagh.1468:

Here’s an idea, limit the number of items each player can list on the TP at the same time. Not stack size but entries. No progressive taxation, no account binding, no time limits. Say 50 entries max, combined buy and sell orders per account. Even base it on highest level character (start at 10 and get 1 additional entry for every two levels).

It actually surprised me that I could list so many items and have so many bids at once when I started to use the TP.

But . . . why? What purpose does this serve? (Ignoring the negative effects of this, such as vastly increasing the spread on items.)

How is limiting the number of entries every player can have on the TP vastly increases the spread on items? Are you saying it’s a function single trader with lots of entries rather than competition that narrows the spread?

There are players that keep insisting that TP trading is “evil”. That it artificially inflates prices (but the examples given are always on low supply, high demand luxury items). I’m simply proposing a means that leaves the TP relatively unchanged for the average player yet establish some bounds TP trading activity that could limit gold made on the TP. Dungeons speed runs have been nerfed to limit rewards. Farming specific critters has been nerfed to limit rewards. Yet TP traders who use the entire player base to farm for them, can use human nature, impatience and indifference, to earn considerable rewards. If the devs honestly want to limit rewards players are making from degenerated game play styles, this is a means to do so with little impact on the average player.

Of course that’s if you buy into the whole notion that the devs need to make earning on the TP “fair” in comparison to other activities.

Behellagh.1468:

How is limiting the number of entries every player can have on the TP vastly increases the spread on items? Are you saying it’s a function single trader with lots of entries rather than competition that narrows the spread?
Dungeons speed runs have been nerfed to limit rewards. Farming specific critters has been nerfed to limit rewards. Yet TP traders who use the entire player base to farm for them, can use human nature, impatience and indifference, to earn considerable rewards. player.

A couple comments:

1. Decreasing the number of entries necessarily means that there will be fewer bids and asks for every item. This will slow the narrowing of the spread.

2. The reason that COF and farming location nerfs were implemented was not to prevent individual players from getting rich. Rather, they were to prevent large amounts of gold and mats from entering the economy (and having an inflationary effect). Trading is not inflationary, and while it allows individuals to make a good deal of gold, it does not negatively the economy writ large.

3. Devs have made no indication that they want to make the TP “fair,” just as they’ve made no indication that they want other parts of the game to be “fair” for differently skilled players.

Vol.7601:

I think the real reason why OP didn’t want to post it in BLTC subforum was to escape the wrath of John Smith. Let’s hope he never checks General Discussion

Oh, I’d copy and paste this in the BLTC subform if it means getting John’s ear. A political and economics discussion irl would certainly be quite lively between us for certain.

Speaking of which, I’d like to hear his opinion on the Dev Live Stream manipulating the market as it did yesterday with Runes of Strength. Giving one group advanced information, even in public, is almost a form of insider trading. I’m guessing the response would be “too bad for those who didn’t watch.”. This game is certain based around a “hooray for me and kitten you” ideology.

I have the impression that the sudden surge in Rune of Strength only affected those watching the stream. Anyone not watching would have no reason to suddenly stock/buy the Rune, so any “insider” action was all between people with equal knowledge of the stream information and the ones making profit were making it off others trying to get in on the flip action just a tad later. It amused me that people shark frenzied on that one when the devs were saying every Rune and Sigil would change.

Well, the info they were giving out made them sound pretty strong. I haven’t checked volumes to see if they are being flipped or horded until the update.

DeWolfe.2174:

Vol.7601:

I think the real reason why OP didn’t want to post it in BLTC subforum was to escape the wrath of John Smith. Let’s hope he never checks General Discussion

Oh, I’d copy and paste this in the BLTC subform if it means getting John’s ear. A political and economics discussion irl would certainly be quite lively between us for certain.
.

No need, the mods did it for you.

Bunda.2691:

A couple comments:

1. Decreasing the number of entries necessarily means that there will be fewer bids and asks for every item. This will slow the narrowing of the spread.

That implies that the majority of bids and asks are from a minority of players. I disagree with that notion.

2. The reason that COF and farming location nerfs were implemented was not to prevent individual players from getting rich. Rather, they were to prevent large amounts of gold and mats from entering the economy (and having an inflationary effect). Trading is not inflationary, and while it allows individuals to make a good deal of gold, it does not negatively the economy writ large.

Preventing large amounts of gold is equal to preventing individual players from getting rich. I understand that TP use isn’t inflationary but the arguments from the regulate TP crowd focuses on the perceived unfairness that the TP is the only means to acquire personal wealth in a reasonable period of time. They look at the dungeon and farming nerfs as the devs taking away their sources of income. Limiting how much wealth they can attain during their play session. They are looking for a way to limit what a TP trader can earn. A entry limit has less impact on a casual user than account binding purchases or implementing a progressive tax based on transaction amount.

3. Devs have made no indication that they want to make the TP “fair,” just as they’ve made no indication that they want other parts of the game to be “fair” for differently skilled players.

This is an exercise in suggesting ideas for the otherside to consider. I personally don’t believe the TP needs any changes at all.