So for those of you who didn’t know, the update at the end of August(or the update before) caused the majority, if not all, precursor prices to inflate drastically. As someone who was going for Sunrise, Dawn shot up from 450 to 690 in 1 or 2 hours.
When I finally got 450g a few days ago, I realised I had to grind out 200 more gold in order to get Dawn. Not to mention, on top of all that, Ectos skyrocketed from 18g to 30+g in the recent update, and I need about 500 of ‘em.
So my question would be, do any of you know when precursor prices will be going down? I can’t bring myself to grind out another 200g, and precursor prices doesn’t seem to be going down, whenever it goes down 10 or 20g, someone buys it and the price goes up again.
I know when the Precursor crafting update hits, the precursor prices will go down, but honestly, that’s not going to be anytime soon… will it?
I know when the Precursor crafting update hits, the precursor prices will go down, but honestly, that’s not going to be anytime soon… will it?
I’m positive precursor crafting is coming really soon, they said it was going to be before 2014. And with the introduction of Ascended crafting, the game is already prepare for Precursor crafting, maybe with new or old materials nobody knows. I think the main reason they didn’t release it at the same time as ascended weapon is because of the huge impact the ascended weapons had on the market, it would have been alot worse if they introduced the precursor at the same time.
For the rest, about the price being ridiculous, I think everyone has to agree. From what I know 90% of the time it’s cheaper to MF it, but who want to risk 400-500 gold and maybe not get anything?
Now someone for no reason makes an offer from 400 to 520…..gold.
Then another of 530
We need market regulations….macroeconomy can be good but most players have 0 benefit from that and sees the TP as broken as the worst inflated economy.
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
We need market regulations….macroeconomy can be good but most players have 0 benefit from that and sees the TP as broken as the worst inflated economy.
Nah. We just need listings to be timed, with longer listings costing more than short ones. In addition, I would also time buy orders and move some of the sell order fees to buy orders (maybe 2% listing fee on buy orders and 3% on sell orders).
We need market regulations….macroeconomy can be good but most players have 0 benefit from that and sees the TP as broken as the worst inflated economy.
Nah. We just need listings to be timed, with longer listings costing more than short ones. In addition, I would also time buy orders and move some of the sell order fees to buy orders (maybe 2% listing fee on buy orders and 3% on sell orders).
Very surprised this hasn’t been done already
it seems like a very easy fix
500 crafting crashed the exotic markets, which has forced price out of random exotics and into the precursors. Precursor prices will drop again when assorted exotic weapons start selling at higher prices.
Dusk requires insane 850g now. I was sort of 1/3 on the way for Twilight, but now it’ll take much more gold farming. While prices continue to skyrocket… -_-’ My issue isn’t high price – albeit unnecessary it can be farmed, but keeping up with the price increase is rather difficult.
So I really hope we get a method of getting a precursor through effort, not dumb luck or TP barons.
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Precursor crafting will come before the end of the year. I expect the price to fall.
However, expect it to still be expensive. I don’t expect Dusk to fall to 50g, for example. Precursor crafting will cause the mats to make it to rise as well so we can see the price fall to a reasonable few hundred G or so.
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Unfortunately precursor crafting will almost certainly make the price of the majority of precursors rise.
The only expensive precursors are the 4-5 that are horribly over popular. The rest of the precursors are pretty cheap. There are half a dozen varieties that you can get for <100g right now.
So yes, Dawn, Dusk, Legend, and Spark will probably fall in price slightly, but expect all the other precursors to be much more expensive to craft then they are to buy.
However, expect it to still be expensive. I don’t expect Dusk to fall to 50g, for example. Precursor crafting will cause the mats to make it to rise as well so we can see the price fall to a reasonable few hundred G or so.
I don’t expect it bellow 100. Anything up to say 300-400g is sort of reasonable. But yeah, it would be a bit concernning what would happen to the T6 market, as suddenly many more people will demand T6 mats…
[QQ] – ex RoS, current Piken Square
[DV] – megaboss community
However, expect it to still be expensive. I don’t expect Dusk to fall to 50g, for example. Precursor crafting will cause the mats to make it to rise as well so we can see the price fall to a reasonable few hundred G or so.
I don’t expect it bellow 100. Anything up to say 300-400g is sort of reasonable. But yeah, it would be a bit concernning what would happen to the T6 market, as suddenly many more people will demand T6 mats…
Personally I wouldn’t mind t6 mats selling for 30s a piece ;D
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It depends whether precursor crafting will be tied to the introduction of new legendaries. I could well imagine that they allow you to craft precursors to the “second series” legendaries only. In which case precursor prices for the 1st series legendaries -ie. the current legendaries- may well go up instead of down (because less people will try to mystic forge them, decreasing their supply).
It depends whether precursor crafting will be tied to the introduction of new legendaries. I could well imagine that they allow you to craft precursors to the “second series” legendaries only. In which case precursor prices for the 1st series legendaries -ie. the current legendaries- may well go up instead of down (because less people will try to mystic forge them, decreasing their supply).
That would be my guess, since they have sent a clear message with ascended weapons that they want “end game” items to be more about playing the game than playing the TP. However I’m not sure the original precursors or completed Legendaries would go up in price, because a brand new set of shinies to go for would shift demand away from the originals. Especially among those who want to attract attention, which at this point is a bit harder when you’re just another warrior with Twilight.
Now, if they discontinued the original precursors so that you could’t get them from forging or drops, and the current supply became all there will ever be…
Simple solution is a 5% tax on bid auctions and it should have been done for ages. A regulated market is an extrem proposition but inbetween as IRL you can’t bid for free you have to pay a tax to place your bid in auction house it’s common sense to avoid abusive market manipulators.
My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.
Some simple trade rules help fix these problems. I mentioned one a few months ago regarding posting time limits. That combined with current 5% posting fee goes a long way to limit non-competitive posts (as well as players gobbling up limited stock and reposting at significantly higher prices). That idea got chewed up by many flippers as well as J.Smith stating it would “discourage investment” although he didn’t elaborate on exactly how the crimps investment (as the TP is not a bank to store your items while they accrue value).
Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”
My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.
…and we’re off into conspiracy theory land!
Ecto salvage rates are fine
Fractal drop was never nerfed….
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.
…and we’re off into conspiracy theory land!
I don’t recall posting any conspiracy theories… just stating what my friend observed as “fact”. Don’t want to beleive it? Then don’t.
However ANet does have the data available at their finger tips to review (if they wanted to or if they care about this type of behavior). In short, what we think is moot.
Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”
My speculation in why pricing for both pre’s and leg’s is that those that have invested in them are trying to get thier profits before pre-crafting comes in. They are worried, and rightly so, that their gold is going to go out the window.
My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.
…and we’re off into conspiracy theory land!
I don’t recall posting any conspiracy theories… just stating what my friend observed as “fact”. Don’t want to beleive it? Then don’t.
However ANet does have the data available at their finger tips to review (if they wanted to or if they care about this type of behavior). In short, what we think is moot.
If it was a “fact” my belief wouldn’t matter, the evidence (which you don’t have any of) would stand on its own.
Anet does have the data, and the LAST time this stupid issue came up they provided it. It seemed to shut up the morons for about 2 days before they came back in full force pretending it was never shared.
My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.
…and we’re off into conspiracy theory land!
I don’t recall posting any conspiracy theories… just stating what my friend observed as “fact”. Don’t want to beleive it? Then don’t.
However ANet does have the data available at their finger tips to review (if they wanted to or if they care about this type of behavior). In short, what we think is moot.
If it was a “fact” my belief wouldn’t matter, the evidence (which you don’t have any of) would stand on its own.
Anet does have the data, and the LAST time this stupid issue came up they provided it. It seemed to shut up the morons for about 2 days before they came back in full force pretending it was never shared.
Certainly if evidence showed it didn’t happen before, it definitely couldn’t happen ever, from now out until infinity…
/* end sarcasm */
I have never seen A-Net/J.Smith post evidence on anything. If you have the link to the evidence from “last time” that would be good for a few chuckles.
Short of watching the TP, there’s not much more in the way of “evidence” a player can provide is there? Unless you propose fraps’ing the TP for hours on end hoping to catch the behavior in action?
Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”
1. Switch to a one month view on the graphs (click the M button)
2. Slide the scale adjustments on the bottom to narrow the graph to Aug 27, 2AM start to Aug 28, 8AM finish
Timeline:
Aug 27th, 12:46PM: 15 Dawns with Sell at 533g
Aug 27th, 2:48PM: 2 Dawns with Sell at 1111g
Aug 27th, 5:03PM: 12 Dawns, with Sell at 700g
Yeah, maybe 13 dawns sold in the span of two hours… although it’s the only spike on the graph as far back as the graph is recorded.
Suspicious at the very least — intentional buy-up at the very worst.
EDIT: Here’s a pic where I cut/pasted the 3 data points together:
Attachments:
Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”
My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.
…and we’re off into conspiracy theory land!
I don’t recall posting any conspiracy theories… just stating what my friend observed as “fact”. Don’t want to beleive it? Then don’t.
However ANet does have the data available at their finger tips to review (if they wanted to or if they care about this type of behavior). In short, what we think is moot.
If it was a “fact” my belief wouldn’t matter, the evidence (which you don’t have any of) would stand on its own.
Anet does have the data, and the LAST time this stupid issue came up they provided it. It seemed to shut up the morons for about 2 days before they came back in full force pretending it was never shared.
Certainly if evidence showed it didn’t happen before, it definitely couldn’t happen ever, from now out until infinity…
/* end sarcasm */
I have never seen A-Net/J.Smith post evidence on anything. If you have the link to the evidence from “last time” that would be good for a few chuckles.
Short of watching the TP, there’s not much more in the way of “evidence” a player can provide is there? Unless you propose fraps’ing the TP for hours on end hoping to catch the behavior in action?
@Nike — thanks! that’s the first time I’ve seen evidence posted by J.Smith… ever. You have my sincere apology regrading the posting of previous evidence.
That being said, the J.Smith post was from 16-days ago. The precursor spike I provided evidence of above occurred since then. The previous evidence certainly isn’t a guarantee for this most recent spike.
You can also see a similar spike in Dusk from the same website happening in the span of hours where supply nearly vanishes, then reappears at new, higher prices. However with Dusk we’re dealing with a very small supply to begin with (like two). NOTE: The Dusk Spike happens on the exact same day the Dawn spike. I would have been greatly amused if they happened at the exact same time… bummer.
With Dawn we went from 15 to 2 in two hours, then back from 2 to 13 in another two hours. I have provide all the evidence I can… and again, it’s the only spike in the last month on that graph.
So maybe my friend’s observation wasn’t made up after all…
Apology accepted in advance.
Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”
Here is the flaw in your analysis. Your buddy shows supply lowering and prices rising. The only conclusions you can, and should, draw from that are in regards to price, supply and demand. And frankly, we don’t know enough about demand from that data to even conclude anything solid about demand.
Unfortunately, the conclusions people are trying to draw are elaborate market control conspiracy theories. That is fantasy and conjecture.
This is not a case of manipulation, the information was given to the public prior to actual patch being made into the game. It was even streamed by DEV on twitch, and I was at the gym when I saw it.
I didn’t draw any conclusions in my original post. I merely stated: “My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.”
The data I provided supports my friend’s observation of what happened in the market. No where in this topic have I stated that the cause was market manipulation. You started that rant on your own with your “conspiracy theory” statements.
Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”
I didn’t draw any conclusions in my original post. I merely stated: “My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.”
The data I provided supports my friend’s observation of what happened in the market. No where in this topic have I stated that the cause was market manipulation. You started that rant on your own with your “conspiracy theory” statements.
That is just how “Nike Porphyrogenita” react to everything he disagree to.
I didn’t draw any conclusions in my original post. I merely stated: “My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.”
The data I provided supports my friend’s observation of what happened in the market. No where in this topic have I stated that the cause was market manipulation. You started that rant on your own with your “conspiracy theory” statements.
You’re playing coy. You know exactly what your thread was about and what implications you were trying to make. Now you’re just refusing to own up to it.
I didn’t draw any conclusions in my original post. I merely stated: “My friend saw a bunch of dawns vanish from the TP and then an identical number show up shortly afterwards, reposted for roughly 200gp more.”
The data I provided supports my friend’s observation of what happened in the market. No where in this topic have I stated that the cause was market manipulation. You started that rant on your own with your “conspiracy theory” statements.
You’re playing coy. You know exactly what your thread was about and what implications you were trying to make. Now you’re just refusing to own up to it.
Actually, this isn’t even his thread. It was sort of taken over.
Here is the flaw in your analysis. Your buddy shows supply lowering and prices rising. The only conclusions you can, and should, draw from that are in regards to price, supply and demand. And frankly, we don’t know enough about demand from that data to even conclude anything solid about demand.
Unfortunately, the conclusions people are trying to draw are elaborate market control conspiracy theories. That is fantasy and conjecture.
I don’t get how J. Smith posting some some little spreadsheet is proof of anything.
That is just you taking someone else’s word for it. Just because it is Johns words, doesn’t make it true. Now, that’s not to say he is a liar or anything since I don’t know the man. However, who is to say he is telling the truth? He could be lying or “fudging” the numbers to quell the concerns in that thread.
The burden is just as much on you to prove that the market isn’t being manipulated (and, no, John’s “proof” isn’t enough). It would be very easy to do with something like a precursor that there are very few of. It’s very easy to dismiss something like this as some crazy old conspiracy theory, but in the end your view of “no market manipulation” is the same thing, fantasy and conjecture.
If you see a public tool showing that many precursor’s type supply have been bough in few hours. (almost all).
Then a dev posts spreadsheet without any means for us to check, saying that unique sellers bought those precursor.
I could even trust dev in that case means some unique sellers just tried to gethere tomanipulate the market.
There are more proofs of market manipulation that of a normal commerce with the purpose of crafting a legendary.
even here a player said he bougt 4 storm and i know Others who bougth other precursors and are hoarding them to increase price.
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
We have very limited public information. All we have is supply and price snapshots. No accurate volume or demand figures. The only other set of information we have comes from John Smith’s posts, which reinforce that there is no market cornering happening.
In this situation, with limited information, we can make very limited conclusions. Based on what information we do have, it would be absolutely non-nonsensical to assume there is a market cornering conspiracy happening since none of the evidence we have supports that, and some of it contradicts that.
If you are going to allege that John Smith is lying, and/or his figures are made up and that he is part of the conspiracy (for some reason) than what you are doing is doubling down on an irrational conspiracy theory and going further into the rabbit hole. that is rather embarrassing.
Here is the flaw in your analysis. Your buddy shows supply lowering and prices rising. The only conclusions you can, and should, draw from that are in regards to price, supply and demand. And frankly, we don’t know enough about demand from that data to even conclude anything solid about demand.
Unfortunately, the conclusions people are trying to draw are elaborate market control conspiracy theories. That is fantasy and conjecture.
I don’t get how J. Smith posting some some little spreadsheet is proof of anything.
That is just you taking someone else’s word for it. Just because it is Johns words, doesn’t make it true. Now, that’s not to say he is a liar or anything since I don’t know the man. However, who is to say he is telling the truth? He could be lying or “fudging” the numbers to quell the concerns in that thread.
The burden is just as much on you to prove that the market isn’t being manipulated (and, no, John’s “proof” isn’t enough). It would be very easy to do with something like a precursor that there are very few of. It’s very easy to dismiss something like this as some crazy old conspiracy theory, but in the end your view of “no market manipulation” is the same thing, fantasy and conjecture.
John Smith is the game’s economist. He’s an employee responsible for the game’s economy and as such is privy to key data. He certainly holds more weight than your average “precursor prices r inflatd” poster here.
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DO you know how many players have several of the same precursor in their banks?
I am repeating same things over and over….
but more than anything dev post about precursor is OUTDATED and can be interpreted to be true even without denying market manipulation.
He is smart to say monopoly is impossible…
But being an economist i really tend to see him as biased when i look an economy where most skilled players have to farm and give a hige part of their gold to people playing TP minigame that are rich to the point of not having anything other to do with their golds than flip.
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
I would just like to point out that cornering the precursor market is an extremely high risk investment.
1. You don’t know who else is hoarding it, waiting for you to take the bait.
2. You don’t know about the time and potential impact of percursor crafting
3. You can’t go too much higher than the true value of precursor (Mystic Forge cost)
4. You can’t expect to make money on every piece you’ve purchased. The last few pieces you bought don’t have much profit margin. You are using earnings from 2-3 piece to cover the loss from others.
I would think twice before locking 5000g into such a high risk market.
Most observed spikes on graphs are caused by Dev livestreams on twitch TV. Some market spikes are caused by Vol.
*Cue for the ‘insider trade’ conspiracy theorists to jump in.
So based on hearsay, with no evidence, we are supposed to believe exactly what?
From what I’m understanding is, that we are supposed to believe in a theory with no solid proof of said theory.
Seems pretty logical to me……
@Max, about Vol, that’s pretty funny, but Vol is also a genius when it comes to the TP. I equate Vol to Chuck Norris in market speculation.
I’am but no means a genius with the TP. I’m a speculator, not a flipper. I simply don’t have the time to watch the market like I was managing a mutual fund.
But I think I do a good job at forecasting, which is related to my job, which is why I speculate 3-12 months in advance when I can ;3
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DO you know how many players have several of the same precursor in their banks?
I am repeating same things over and over….
but more than anything dev post about precursor is OUTDATED and can be interpreted to be true even without denying market manipulation.
He is smart to say monopoly is impossible…
But being an economist i really tend to see him as biased when i look an economy where most skilled players have to farm and give a hige part of their gold to people playing TP minigame that are rich to the point of not having anything other to do with their golds than flip.
What exactly is this bias that our resident economist has? What does he have to gain with his bias?
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DO you know how many players have several of the same precursor in their banks?
I am repeating same things over and over….
but more than anything dev post about precursor is OUTDATED and can be interpreted to be true even without denying market manipulation.
He is smart to say monopoly is impossible…
But being an economist i really tend to see him as biased when i look an economy where most skilled players have to farm and give a hige part of their gold to people playing TP minigame that are rich to the point of not having anything other to do with their golds than flip.
What exactly is this bias that our resident economist has? What does he have to gain with his bias?
Anet do have a bias in keeping the image of this game to be pristine. Recently, Anet asked one of their Dev not to speak to GW2 community for opinion while developing. It was reported on Reddit as well as the Dev’s blog post (explanation for cease interaction). It went on to talk about image of the game, etc etc.
DO you know how many players have several of the same precursor in their banks?
I am repeating same things over and over….
but more than anything dev post about precursor is OUTDATED and can be interpreted to be true even without denying market manipulation.
He is smart to say monopoly is impossible…
But being an economist i really tend to see him as biased when i look an economy where most skilled players have to farm and give a hige part of their gold to people playing TP minigame that are rich to the point of not having anything other to do with their golds than flip.
What exactly is this bias that our resident economist has? What does he have to gain with his bias?
Anet do have a bias in keeping the image of this game to be pristine. Recently, Anet asked one of their Dev not to speak to GW2 community for opinion while developing. It was reported on Reddit as well as the Dev’s blog post (explanation for cease interaction). It went on to talk about image of the game, etc etc.
I disagree that it’s to keep the image that this game is pristine. We know it’s not, the forums are all about it, we know. What they wanted to keep in check was that communication would be professional, which is what every company, not only Anet, does. That’s why they have publicists or they release official statements. No company likes off-hand or casual remarks as they can be used against them later on.
We have already seen that in terms of the economy, Anet is willing to conceded that there are some concerns. E.g. Murdock last year stating that precursor prices were higher than intended (and we will get a fix for that a year later ;}), or when John Smith already outlined that they are aware of gold inflation but have mechanisms to combat it (which they brilliantly did)
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Now someone for no reason makes an offer from 400 to 520…..gold.
Then another of 530
We need market regulations….macroeconomy can be good but most players have 0 benefit from that and sees the TP as broken as the worst inflated economy.
Your complaint is valid….but only for these items. Precursors are the exception to the normal TP rules and you can’t regulate the TP based on the price fluctuations of them.
No other TP sell-able item has such a limited supply (frankly , they should never have been allowed to be sold….only found as drops or from the Flusher…and account bound). So many post about altering the entire TP because this one class of equipment is so volatile.
We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
I spend a lot of time working with the precursor market. It is not a trivial market, as there are a lot of different inputs and the price of precursors moves around with all of those different inputs.
Taking all that into consideration it is remarkably well behaved. Margins have been pretty stable despite several large shocks in the past couple months, and even when it gets out of whack the market pulls prices back into equilibrium pretty quickly. Prices have been pretty fair for some time given the way everything else is moving (actually, they’re a good bit lower than I think they should be, there are some persistent inefficiencies that seem remarkably stable keeping prices down).
Most of this is perception. Ectos nearly doubled in price a couple patches ago and people just kind of shrugged. T6 fine mats bounce around wildly without a peep. Precursors go up 10% after a huge patch, however, and the threads full of people losing their kitten and blathering about some conspiracy or another pop up like weeds.
DO you know how many players have several of the same precursor in their banks?
I am repeating same things over and over….
but more than anything dev post about precursor is OUTDATED and can be interpreted to be true even without denying market manipulation.
He is smart to say monopoly is impossible…
But being an economist i really tend to see him as biased when i look an economy where most skilled players have to farm and give a hige part of their gold to people playing TP minigame that are rich to the point of not having anything other to do with their golds than flip.
What exactly is this bias that our resident economist has? What does he have to gain with his bias?
Anet do have a bias in keeping the image of this game to be pristine. Recently, Anet asked one of their Dev not to speak to GW2 community for opinion while developing. It was reported on Reddit as well as the Dev’s blog post (explanation for cease interaction). It went on to talk about image of the game, etc etc.
I disagree that it’s to keep the image that this game is pristine. We know it’s not, the forums are all about it, we know. What they wanted to keep in check was that communication would be professional, which is what every company, not only Anet, does. That’s why they have publicists or they release official statements. No company likes off-hand or casual remarks as they can be used against them later on.
We have already seen that in terms of the economy, Anet is willing to conceded that there are some concerns. E.g. Murdock last year stating that precursor prices were higher than intended (and we will get a fix for that a year later ;}), or when John Smith already outlined that they are aware of gold inflation but have mechanisms to combat it (which they brilliantly did)
I think there’s something we missed and Murdock might had giving a perfect answer to that spike in prices. Even though that was when the game was launched. Just kicking this idea around for a little while now.
There’s the off-chance that someone got Dusk back when the prices were higher than expected, and placed it up there for that 1.1k gold price. At somepoint, it was bound to be bought, cause the supply would had gotten to the point where that overpriced item would been the only one left or close to it.
All from what the graphed showed was a sudden jump in price then a sudden fall. I haven’t looked, but has anyone looked at the custom prices for these items. I normally look at the price and how many are available at that price, when I buy items like ore in bulk as an example.
DO you know how many players have several of the same precursor in their banks?
I am repeating same things over and over….
but more than anything dev post about precursor is OUTDATED and can be interpreted to be true even without denying market manipulation.
He is smart to say monopoly is impossible…
But being an economist i really tend to see him as biased when i look an economy where most skilled players have to farm and give a hige part of their gold to people playing TP minigame that are rich to the point of not having anything other to do with their golds than flip.
What exactly is this bias that our resident economist has? What does he have to gain with his bias?
If you like something you tends to make it too much important.
Economy in mmorpg is vital….
But is something that should exist in function of the game.
Now someone thougt that “playing the market” should be another “minigame”.
Well its nice indeed but this minigame is TOTALLY broken in risk reward and its like FREE pvp even for people who don t want to play it.
Its like if glory would be awarded for minigames like crab toss and 1000% more than normal PvP then adapt PvP rewards at crab toss points ratio.
Something have to be done fast for TP risk/reward.
Something similar to crystalline dust but MORE often and MORE fast.
Give speculators the message “if you are too greedy you WILL lose everything”, rather than giving them advices and defending them.
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
And that’s why I went for one of the less expensive legendaries. Far less crying involved.
As far as ectos are concerned, these are easily farmed with a variety of activities. Keep your eye on the dragon timers, do a few dungeons and you can easily farm 20 ectos on any given evening, or about 100 in a day.
If I can’t play Guild Wars 2 at work, I won’t work in Guild Wars 2 either.
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
It’s relatively easy to calculate the rough price a precursor should go for based on the chances of acquiring one via the mystic forge. I will use myself as an example, I am currently trying to acquire a precursor for quip: a chaos gun.
At a 0.2-0.5% rate of creation (let’s assume 0.2% for purposes of this discussion) it will take an average of 500 combinations to result in a precursor. Assuming ~ 25s a rare (and 4 rares for combining = 200 rares) that would be 1 gold per combination. Now since combining is an iterative process whereby every 4 combinations we get 1 additional combination (and we may also generate uniques that can be resold for a profit or recombined) let’s say we will only need 1500 rares on average to generate a chaos gun. 1500 × .25 = 375. The current price to outright by a chaos gun on the AH is around 350, I put in a substantively lower bid because I was making some conservative assumptions (i.e. that the generation rate is on the low end, bad luck, etc)….
Ultimately if I have to pay up to 350-375 for a chaos gun I am not going to be angry, because I think that accurately reflects its value. Do these calculations for yourself when you are pricing a precursor, if the amount cost is double or treble the amount you calculate, you are better of hitting the mystic forge, if it is around the price you calculate (chaos gun is a good example because the pricing tracks very well with the expected value) then paying for it is a better option to avoid the RNG risks. Also note my math here is very rough, I assume the folks playing the precursor market have it down to a real science.
I would say there are real market opportunities right now on the more expensive precursors. The problem is the RNG may completely screw you over after investing thousands of gold.
Aliquot Love – Engineer
Gable Thorn – Elementalist
Shining in Darkness – Warrior – Mag
It’s easy why they have gone up. Only half of it has to do with inflation.
Because gold has gotten a lot cheaper (a little over 20 USD for 100 gold at 3rd party sites) buying finished legendaries is more accessible. Thus, the legendary-selling market is hotter and there is more competition for precursors among people who sell finished legendaries.
