Guild Wars 2

There seems to have been a steady decline over the last month.

I mostly trade crafting mats and the like, such as heavy moldy bags, while also watching skins a lot like the ‘Ley line’ skins , and everything is back pedaling.

Anyone noticed this? Thoughts? Predictions?

Is this the result of a shrinking active player base?

As for materials, my guess is that it’s because the new rewards for leveling and personal story include a fair amount of materials, so there has naturally been an influx of supply/reduction of demand.

Weapon skins, I’m not sure. I have to assume it would be a wealthier minority of players who can buy OR sell those, not a group that would reflect shrinking as much. If I had to guess it probably has something to do with the new Black Lion Collections.

Idk, but mithril ore has gone up from 27c to 40c, elder wood is stable.

Not sure if trolling.

Excalibur is right that there is softness in precursor related markets. ie rares, greens, t5 mats, t6 mats…

I’ve noticed this too.

I think that a few more of the mega rich players in these precursor markets moved their cash for now into the stuff from the recent patches: collectible exotic / treasure / Halloween markets.

Sign of a coming decline or a buying opportunity?

nekretaal.6485:

Excalibur is right that there is softness in precursor related markets. ie rares, greens, t5 mats, t6 mats…

I’ve noticed this too.

I think that a few more of the mega rich players in these precursor markets moved their cash for now into the stuff from the recent patches: collectible exotic / treasure / Halloween markets.

Sign of a coming decline or a buying opportunity?

First of all, mega rich players dont have their gold tied up in the precursor market. Its a pretty bad long term investment.
Prices for t5 and t6 fine mats crashed due to their droprate form the labyrinth.
People started crafting rares for forging at a lower cost again, so rare weapons also lose in value.
Soon, the most expensive precursors will have 100-200g shaven off their price.
Has nothing to do with a decline in player numbers.

Why would a decline in population even neccessarily lead to higher prices unless the demography of the game changed drastically?

I am a huge fan of crafting my own rares. Mithril and the T5 materials are plentiful. I am also a huge fan of the BL Skins.

Large Bones crashed down an entire silver mainly because of the Labyrinth. Also, keep in mind a lot of gold is probably being sunk right now for Candy Corn Cobs, people buying ToT bags for shinies, etc. Besides, prices actually went up. T5 mats were 2s20c-2s40c range months ago. T5 mats were all costing about 3s+ a piece right before the halloween update. So if anything prices are stabilizing again.

‘Mega rich players’ are intermediaries on the supply side of the precursor market, not the demand side; if they moved their money elsewhere precursor prices would move up.

If it’s soft, it’s soft on the demand side, or supply is up. There’s definitely been a shift with the Halloween patch and prices are down about 12% overall. This hasn’t moved precursor prices much yet so now is a good time to forge.

It had been softening slowly for a month before the patch though so there’s some other effect taking place as well, though.

Ensign.2189:

It had been softening slowly for a month before the patch though so there’s some other effect taking place as well, though.

Changes to the TP interface may turn away a lot of casual players, who simply avoid using the TP instead of spending their limited in-game time relearning how to use it.

I would also wager a increase in material supply from the halloween event.

I think the events offer some strain relief in the market. Given the content is temporary, ANet can make small supply corrections “on demand” simply by tuning said content.

The issue with the Halloween event is just how much raw gold it’s pumping into the economy. All those ‘worthless’ plastic fangs and the like still vendor pretty well, and once demand starts to soften for candy corn that money is going to start getting thrown at other markets.

On a personal note, I’m loving how the mass farming of the Labyrinth has generated such a huge excess of Silk that it’s dropped prices by a full silver.

I’ve noticed that regular loot drops (blue and green weapons and armor) aren’t selling nearly as well as before the new TP was introduced.

One guess is that players are happy to receive the equivalent of vendor value on the TP. Previously they’d have to do some math to figure out what that value is so there was a tendency to sell a bit higher. Now no math is necessary.

I don’t even bother with the TP anymore for blues and greens.

I suspect it’s because a lot of people on “farm trains” simply sell everything on the TP to the highest buyer as it’s faster than taking time out to stop and visit a merchant or check out prices and price your item appropriately. I do know some guildies who essentially use the TP as their de facto merchant when they run out of bag space in dungeons or Fractals, for example.