Guild Wars 2

What’s better??

I use the single clover recipe simply because if I do get an undesirable material (Ancient Wood, for instance) I’m only getting the single recipe’s worth of it instead of the 10x recipe’s worth.

Is it the same chances to get the clover?

Everything should be the same, just 10x more items with the batch recipe. Single recipe is less risky because less variance.

sorae.7394:

Single recipe is less risky because less variance.

Correct. The 1x recipe will get you closer to the estimated return rate while the 10x recipe will allow for wider swings in luck.

“Correct. The 1x recipe will get you closer to the estimated return rate while the 10x recipe will allow for wider swings in luck.”

What is your source? I searched around after reading this and found nothing by the devs stating it was this way. I did find plenty of posts about folks guessing and posting as to the nature of the rng for this mechanic and it has diddly to do with perception.

It’s called statistics, the more times you repeat a single event the more liekly you are to get the actual rate.

For example you could flipa coin 10 times and show a rate of flipping heads of 70%, and you could flip a coin 100times and get a rate of heads of 55%, but if you were to flip the coin 100, 000 times in a truely random environment the chance of having anything other than a rate of 50% is exceedingly low.

With mystic clovers supposing both recipes have a similar rate o clover production the one that you repeat more times is goign to give you closser ot the actual rate of clover production.

With the 10X recipe you could easily do the recipe 10 times (ie ten chances at ten clovers) and only have 1 or 2 or even no clovers and you are not unlucky simply atthe mercy of normal distributiona nd fixed chance, yet witht he 1X recipe if you repeated the recipe 100X (the same cost as repeating the other recipe 10X) the chance of not getting close to 30 clovers is much smaller.

Artemeas.8763:

It’s called statistics, the more times you repeat a single event the more liekly you are to get the actual rate.

For example you could flipa coin 10 times and show a rate of flipping heads of 70%, and you could flip a coin 100times and get a rate of heads of 55%, but if you were to flip the coin 100, 000 times in a truely random environment the chance of having anything other than a rate of 50% is exceedingly low.

With mystic clovers supposing both recipes have a similar rate o clover production the one that you repeat more times is goign to give you closser ot the actual rate of clover production.

With the 10X recipe you could easily do the recipe 10 times (ie ten chances at ten clovers) and only have 1 or 2 or even no clovers and you are not unlucky simply atthe mercy of normal distributiona nd fixed chance, yet witht he 1X recipe if you repeated the recipe 100X (the same cost as repeating the other recipe 10X) the chance of not getting close to 30 clovers is much smaller.

And that part is exactly the problem. You assume the probability is the same(or similar), but haven’t proven that as true. Once you take that assumption out, you go absolutely nothing. Which is what I believe the previous poster meant.

Here is my experience, it may not be so accurate but close as it happened last week -

Last Tuesday night, I brought 253 Obsidian shards from the temple of Balthazar and was being so excited standing front of the MF. there are 5 shards more than estimated figure recommended on Wiki. I felt very confident to get my legendary sword that night… 1 clover recipe was used till finishing off 187 or 188 shards (i have got 4 or 5 shards returned via a couple tries), guess how many clovers I received…… 39! the drop rate is like 21%. man, i have got only 70 shards left, am i gonna keep trying?? what am i gonna do?? kitten the recommended 1 clover recipe. I was sweaty enough and nearly ragekittened my keyboard…. spent all my skill points (i spent 100 skill points for a couple of scrolls for cool skins earlier, so skill point is always a problem for me too XD) on crystals for 10 clover recipe! 70 shards, 7 tries, 30 clovers, 42.85% drop rate!!
69 Clovers returned, 39 came from 187/188 shards on 1 clover recipe, 30 from 70 shards on 10 clover recipe…. quite disappointed but not overly because of The 10 clover recipe. I couldn’t imagine what result could come out if I stick with 1 clover recipe…. probably I would have to find another new keyboard from work…
I farmed hard in cursed shore rest few days and set a goal of 210k karma for 100 shards, yes, ultimately for the rest of 9 clovers. Zommoros you just can’t kitten me that hard and pass me the rate lower than 9%!
Last Saturday morning, what a beautiful weather outside. Wife begged me to bring her and boy outdoor for a picnic. I told her, shut up! why? Because my guildie told me the temple of balthazar had become uncontested! i spent all my blood sweat and tears karma for 87 Shards. no, it’s not 100 yet. However, I had a faith I could get Bolt that morning. Standing front of MF and thinking which recipe I should use was a difficult decision, I understood I should NOT waste time because the Temple would become contested in 1 hour 50mins …I would still get some time to farm karma and buy few shards if 87 shards don’t bring 9 clovers to me. I don’t like gambling and never count on 10 clover recipe could bring me a huge luck again even if only 1 success out of 7 tries is enough… I had forgiven 1 clover recipe and tried it once again… after 19 tries, I had got all i needed, 9 clovers, 47.36% drop rate!! what happened?!….. i got the gift of fortune, combined all final items and got Bolt!…. and said ‘sorry honey…’ to wife… and enjoyed the beach! What a beautiful day last Saturday it was.

This Bolt being held by myself is my true legendary from then on….I will use it whenever and whatever situation is.

apologize for my terrible grammar and spelling, btw.

TWMagimay.9057:

And that part is exactly the problem. You assume the probability is the same(or similar), but haven’t proven that as true. Once you take that assumption out, you go absolutely nothing. Which is what I believe the previous poster meant.

“The 1x is the same as the 10x except 1 instead of 10.”

This was posted by a dev on another forum. I would link it but you wouldn’t have access anyway. Believe me or not, I don’t really care. It’s your money.

So what I’m getting is the 10x gives 10x of one result, instead of what I assumed was just 10 single different results.

personally, i would probably jsut stick to the 10x even if the rare was lower, just because it would be faster hehe

Awesome.6120:

TWMagimay.9057:

And that part is exactly the problem. You assume the probability is the same(or similar), but haven’t proven that as true. Once you take that assumption out, you go absolutely nothing. Which is what I believe the previous poster meant.

“The 1x is the same as the 10x except 1 instead of 10.”

This was posted by a dev on another forum. I would link it but you wouldn’t have access anyway. Believe me or not, I don’t really care. It’s your money.

What kind of dev forum do you have access to that others don’t? That statement alone sounds very suspicious…

My personal experience: I initially tried the 10x recipe eight times and only got clovers once. I then tried my hand at the 1x recipe and got the rest of the clovers with relative ease. My luck with the 10x recipe may have improved if I stuck with it, but there’s also a chance it would have stayed the same or gotten even worse.

I have pretty poor luck with the RNG in this game thus far, so I’ll be sticking to the 1x recipe in the future.

i’m going for the 1x recipe as well. just makes more.. sens ein my head as the 10x seems to provide too much volatility. sure, i don’t have the math to support it, but this is how i’m going to approach it.

i’m going to try to save up more than what people have recommended (give myself a good… maybe 10% buffer?) and then attempt them all in one go. hopefully after that many tries, the odds do even out and i’ll have all my clovers in one sitting.

ChairGraveyard.2967:

I use the single clover recipe simply because if I do get an undesirable material (Ancient Wood, for instance) I’m only getting the single recipe’s worth of it instead of the 10x recipe’s worth.

This was the logic i used when i got my 77 clovers. Theres more mats in the clover recipie that are junk then there are useful or ones that make back some of the cost so getting x10 of them would of been a bigger loss.

I think i averaged about 31% chance on clovers when i did mine.

I get mines 1×1, sometimes I was real lucky and sometimes not(1/12).

Take it from a guy who has a legendary and grinded one up with his friend who now also has a legendary. I did the 1 recipe and i absolutely hands down tell you to do so aswell. The x10 recipe is too big of a risk. You are more likely to achieve the 33% chance on the one recipe rather than the 10×. You can be unlucky a lot of times with the 1 recipe without it hurting you too much.

Failing a x10 one is hurtful. Do the 1x recipe, do it!
My friend failed 4 or 5 times on the x10 and its not worth it. Only reason you would try this is to luck your way to your 77 clover and get say 8 out of 10. But you won’t get this more like 2 or 3 out of 10 depending on your luck.

My success rate on clovers 1 recipe was 28% which put me at like 600k for clovers combined. Not too bad!

Some people just don’t understand variance. Lets make it simple, don’t care for math use the 10 clover recipe. If your math is above the middle school level use the 1 clover recipe.

akamon.2769:

i’m going for the 1x recipe as well. just makes more.. sens ein my head as the 10x seems to provide too much volatility. sure, i don’t have the math to support it, but this is how i’m going to approach it.

The math is pretty much basic statistics. Without going into too much detail, if you draw a sample (e.g. think of flipping a coin 50 times), you have a sample mean. That sample mean may or may not be equal to the actual probability (in the coin example, you may not get heads exactly 50% of the time with just 50 flips). So what you can do to test the validity of your sample is to construct a confidence interval, which is sample mean +- some error. That error has a 1/sqrt(n) term, where n is the number of trials (coin flips). In other words, the error decreases as you increase sample size. That’s why the probability of flipping heads trends towards 50% as you flip it a stupid number of times.

So assuming the chances of getting the clovers are equal, using the single recipe will always be the safer bet. You can get luckier with the batch recipe, but you can also get unlucky results.