Guild Wars 2

so today me and my fiance were working on world completion (im working towards the juggernaut, already have colossus) and realized we had a few left over forge stones. in an attempt to get the legend for my fiance, i tossed in 3 lvl 80 rare staves and a stone and got dawn in return. We were so excited because we would now have a ton of gold to try for the legend. sold for 1000G, we began tossing away staves into the forge. 6 times we got imryldyeen, which shares the same thumbnail as the legend. no clue why A-net would have the precursors share a thumbnail with other exotics, it just gets your hopes up when you see it. no legend was forged today. It’s just extremely frustrating, she didnt want to craft twilight, so why not have some way to trade for a precursor that you would want? you would think that with 1000G you should be able to get atleast 1 precursor of your choice… oh well, just wanted to share my frustration with you guys.

i know you guys will say “idiot, why didnt you just gold farm the difference and buy the legend” to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

mike.5476:

i know you guys will say “idiot, why didnt you just gold farm the difference and buy the legend” to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

I would just say “why did you have to make a new topic about this when there are already 6 topics on the first pace of this forum about precursors?”

Wanze.8410:

mike.5476:

i know you guys will say “idiot, why didnt you just gold farm the difference and buy the legend” to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

I would just say “why did you have to make a new topic about this when there are already 6 topics on the first pace of this forum about precursors?”

because maybe other players like to discuss such things. simple as that.

mike.5476:

Wanze.8410:

mike.5476:

i know you guys will say “idiot, why didnt you just gold farm the difference and buy the legend” to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

I would just say “why did you have to make a new topic about this when there are already 6 topics on the first pace of this forum about precursors?”

because maybe other players like to discuss such things. simple as that.

Its being discussed in the other already existing topics.

Fun stats rule of thumb: throw an x sided dice x times, and the chance that number 1 will not show up on any throw is between 30% and 35%. If you spent over 1000 gold trying to gamble for a 1300 gold item then your chances of coming up with nothing were about 1 in 3.

But as Wanze said, there are other threads here discussing the same thing for the same reasons. Go to the thread “an interesting idea for precursors” where the conversation has gone forward further. Or indeed any of the others.

The spectrum of luck (RGN) is a funny thing. The luckiest 1% could see a precursor on 1st attempt, and 0.1% could probably get a few precursors within several attempts. However the other side of the specrum the unlucky 0.1%-1% could spend 5k+ gold and probably never see a precursor, no matter how hard they try. Most players fall in the middle somewhere, you never know your place untill you try. Once you’ve made the choice to gamble instead of buying it, you shouldn’t blame anyone or the rgn when you don’t win. It can be frustrating though.

why did you just not save extra gold and buy it o_o
my limit was 400g in the mf (when dusk and dawn cost 500) and from that day i never put anything there except runes

mike.5476:

i know you guys will say “idiot, why didnt you just gold farm the difference and buy the legend” to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

But you chose to gamble your “winnings” so to speak. If I won the lottery, and then lost it all in Vegas, than it’s really my fault I lost it all. Unfortunately ANet hasn’t given us precursor crafting, and until they do your only option is go the “cheap” way or the “lucky” way.

mike.5476:

to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

How is getting precursor from throwing random stuff to mystic forge more legendary (or less cheap), than working towards certain amount of gold, and buying one?

I’m right there with the OP. Even though I have had 5 legendaries none of them felt like an accomplishment or a reward. They felt like pure grind and consistently reminded me how unlucky my account has been. It took me over 3k gold in the forge b4 getting one pre, so for me it has really not been an option.

mike.5476:

i know you guys will say “idiot, why didnt you just gold farm the difference and buy the legend” to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

if they weren’t sellable, you wouldn’t of had that 1000g. precursors drop rate is too rare to only be random drops, even if you got the precursor of your choice.

by my calculations, The Legend currently takes about 1,429g60s14c to forge. I’m not sure how much you were paying per rare (or did you use exotics?), but I’m just pointing out that at best you had about a 70% chance of getting it with 1000g.

You decided to gamble and lost. Tough luck.

I’m going to the casino this Saturday and I fully intend to gamble a few hundred away. But if I come out losing, am I going to get mad at the house? Nope.

If you could have got a precursor for under 1000g invested, then precursors wouldn’t be priced over 1000g.

You should have took that gold and ran away with it, especially since you were so incredibly lucky to get it on the first try.

kuittaa.7360:

mike.5476:

to me it feels cheap to buy a precursor. I dont think precursor’s or legendaries should be sold on the TP.

How is getting precursor from throwing random stuff to mystic forge more legendary (or less cheap), than working towards certain amount of gold, and buying one?

Both the forge and outright purchases are not legendary. Then again, the weapons are not legendary either. I got lucky and have had 2 off them. I have never heard of them before they were released, and have heard nothing about them since the were released. I have no idea why they are legendary, or who inferred the legendary status. They are nice skins and worth the effort to actually make the legendary weapon. IMHO, the effort to obtain and craft the legendary in no way makes the weapon legendary.
Now if there were quest chains and achievements to activate upgrades from the precursor weapon in a graduated fashion, that would be a process that is legendary and deserving the name.

Why the heck would you waste forge stones on rares anyway

Lol I’m not mad about losing the 1000g. I could care less about it because it wasn’t earned, it just fell in my lap. I’m just a little ticked off that the legend didn’t drop after all that. My main priority is to get my fiance the precursor of her choice. The quest to getting a legendary is something that is keeping both of us really interested in the game right now. And who cares if I “wasted” stones with Rares. The only other thing I use the stones on are Mystic salvage kits, and I already have 6 stacks of them. I knew the risk of using the forge, i just wanted to share my story.

mike.5476:

I’m just a little ticked off that the legend didn’t drop after all that. My main priority is to get my fiance the precursor of her choice.

But there is no “after all that”. Here’s what happened to you: You got a precursor after only a few tries with rares, then you spent 1000g to try for another one. The average cost to forge the Legend with the cheapest method possible is also somewhere around 1000g after cutting your losses (whether you have done that at all I don’t know). Not getting one after barely scratching the statistical average is not really surprising, plus you already had that previous precursor drop, which the game DOES take into account when you go on forging.
You just seem so indignated about this, but actually your luck would still be considered average.
And concerning the “wasted forge stones”: Using that with the three staves randomised your precursor outcome, and getting Dawn as a random precursor drop is actually extra lucky. Had you just used a fourth staff you would be leaning on the Legend by now.

GZ on your dawn. I love the forge. HUGE fan of it!

“plus you already had that previous precursor drop, which the game DOES take into account when you go on forging.”

I dont think this is true, or else i would not have immediately dumped all that gold away. there are many people that have gotten more than 2 or 3 precursors in the forge in a single run. google it.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Interesting-Idea-on-Precursors/first#post4284389

Kwishin.5124:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Interesting-Idea-on-Precursors/first#post4284389

that was a suggestion by a player for how they would want the forge to operate. the current forge is random – it does NOT take past drops into account when it decides what it gives you.

How do you guys turn a venting thread into telling someone how wrong he is? Seriously?

Labjax.2465:

How do you guys turn a venting thread into telling someone how wrong he is? Seriously?

I think they are telling him how wrong his expectations were, not his actions in general (tho gamblers remorse is nothing new under the sun…).

Khairiya.7240:

…..plus you already had that previous precursor drop, which the game DOES take into account when you go on forging……

THIS is the kind of FUD that players read and repeat and then base their future decisions on. Your LAST toss (and your previous 50,000 ones) has NO bearing on the next one (or any future ones). A 0.1% chanced does not mean you get a prize after 1000 tries….it means you get a prize if you roll a 1 on a 1000 sided die (and how many times you roll that die has NO effect on previous or future rolls).

Brother Grimm.5176:

THIS is the kind of FUD that players read and repeat and then base their future decisions on. Your LAST toss (and your previous 50,000 ones) has NO bearing on the next one (or any future ones). A 0.1% chanced does not mean you get a prize after 1000 tries….it means you get a prize if you roll a 1 on a 1000 sided die (and how many times you roll that die has NO effect on previous or future rolls).

I’m not complaining about the forge here, but I’m convinced it is not as ignorant of previous outcomes as we are led to believe. I know about the high variance, but stretches of 30 to 40 tries without upgrades, or 5 upgrades in a row are supposed to happen ~0.05% of the time if the upgrade chance from rare to exotic is stated as 20%. Yet, that happens about once per inventory load every time I use the forge. The same goes for the 0.125% chance of getting a precursor upgrade.
So I could basically say the same: Assuring that past rolls will have no consequences when they actually might is cosying people into traps.
I don’t reckon that statement to be true but then, neither is yours. Maybe others disagree, but my experience points towards some pattern in the randomness of the forge.

Khairiya.7240:

my experience points towards some pattern in the randomness of the forge.

Of course there are patterns….RNG on a computer is not completely RNG as it’s impossible to come up with a random seed number that is 100% random (unless Anet is using some non-standard method, the RTC of the Server or the Client is involved). That doesn’t mean there is an intelligence (or ’memory") behind the patterns….

Sorry….gotta post it….

Khairiya.7240:

I know about the high variance, but stretches of 30 to 40 tries without upgrades, or 5 upgrades in a row are supposed to happen ~0.05% of the time if the upgrade chance from rare to exotic is stated as 20%. Yet, that happens about once per inventory load every time I use the forge. The same goes for the 0.125% chance of getting a precursor upgrade.

Start collecting data on your runs – how many forges you do between upgrades and the like. When you are regularly doing mass forging you’re going to see a lot of unlikely things occur, and our brains are really good at picking those out and remembering them. When you have a huge sample some of those unlikely things become rather likely.

I’ve run a bunch of tests of randomness on detailed data of drops and what I’ve seen is perfectly consistent with iid sampling. Enough to satisfy me at least. If you think you’re seeing otherwise absolutely gather the data, I’d absolutely love to see a gathered data set that shows evidence that the forge has a memory.

Khairiya.7240:

Brother Grimm.5176:

THIS is the kind of FUD that players read and repeat and then base their future decisions on. Your LAST toss (and your previous 50,000 ones) has NO bearing on the next one (or any future ones). A 0.1% chanced does not mean you get a prize after 1000 tries….it means you get a prize if you roll a 1 on a 1000 sided die (and how many times you roll that die has NO effect on previous or future rolls).

I’m not complaining about the forge here, but I’m convinced it is not as ignorant of previous outcomes as we are led to believe. I know about the high variance, but stretches of 30 to 40 tries without upgrades, or 5 upgrades in a row are supposed to happen ~0.05% of the time if the upgrade chance from rare to exotic is stated as 20%. Yet, that happens about once per inventory load every time I use the forge. The same goes for the 0.125% chance of getting a precursor upgrade.
So I could basically say the same: Assuring that past rolls will have no consequences when they actually might is cosying people into traps.
I don’t reckon that statement to be true but then, neither is yours. Maybe others disagree, but my experience points towards some pattern in the randomness of the forge.

There are always patterns in random numbers. We humans are really good at spotting those patterns. But as soon as you look for a longer period, those patterns disappear (although they might be replaced by something else). Random numbers really are random.

What you have described is a common superstition among gamblers, that one deck of cards is “hot” and another is cold, that a craps table is lucky, that the roulette wheel has to come up mostly black, because all morning, it’s been mostly red.

Lady Luck doesn’t care about any of that. As noted above, each roll of the dice has exactly the same odds.

http://imgur.com/a/csqYt

Got 3 more precursors on about 1000g spent