Guild Wars 2

Recently I started running around with the handy temple timer and hitting all the world events/bosses. It’s been pretty fun and a consistent money maker by my lazy standards. I typically sell the yellows on the TP for 30-80 silver but I started wondering…. is it better to salvage them. Maybe for the short term the roughly 1 gold per 3 yellows instant sell is great. But am I missing out on valuable crafting mats that in the long term would be better?

I am curious what people on either side of this issue think.

which temple timer do you use? ever since gw2stuff closed, I can’t find a good one. I’d prefer one that also included world bosses.
I have a simple calculation for if you should salvage or not: check how much you can sell 1 ecto for. if the rare can be sold for more than that, sell it. if not, salvage it. currently ectos sell for about 42s, so that would be the cutoff. you don’t have to be strict: salvaging is more reliable way to get gold, so I will move the cutoff to about 45.
the actual formula is a bit more complex, but not necessary because it’s likely only a difference of 1-4s.

complex formula:
if (ecto_sell_price*0.875+socket_sell_price*0.8+material_sell_price*material_drop_rate-kit_buy_price < item_sell_price) sell it
else salvage it
an example:
ecto_sell_price= 42s
socket_sell_price = 4s
material_sell_price =3s (silk) x 2 = 6s (average drop rate for non-coat armors)
kit_buy_price = 61c (master SK)
total = 45s34c is the average sell price you get by salvaging the item (if it sells for more than that; sell it instead)
you would have to adjust this for every item: not all items have a socket (3s20c less), not all items drop silk (mithril is 5s48c less), not all items drop 2 materials (1H weapons drop 1.2 materials, coats drop 3), etc.

the good news is that you can directly compare sell prices and not worry about the TP tax – because you would either sell the materials you salvage or sell the items; both will get TP tax, and TP tax would be the same if the sell prices are the same.

Ohhh I was unaware you could salvage ectos off rares. I thought that was only exotics which of course I always sell right away for 4-8 gold depending. Yeah you pretty much answered my question. If I can get ectos off yellows then I will indeed start salvaging them. That’s a way better deal. Of course i’ll still sell the odd yellow that goes for 80+ silver. Thanks a bunch!

I am sorry! I didn’t answer your question. I use guildwarstemple.com

It has the timers setup for the megaserver now and is 98% reliable. I farm bosses all day at work. It’s great gold for chillin and making some new friends.

Oh wow…..I just did a run thru my routine events and snagged about 8 yellows. Normally I woulda just dumped them on TP as they were all selling for 39 silver each. I took your advice and salvaged them and got 14 ectos. So you doubled my profit. I can never thank you enough for such a simple tip. Cheers!

you can get ectos off level 68 and higher rares and exotics. most exotics are not good to salvage (as you’d only get like 1 ecto off it, vs. sell on TP for 1g). Some are, and those are the ones with expensive sockets or are able to give inscriptions or insignia. also, you get more ectos from exotics than rares.
the formula for deciding if you should salvage an exotic is a bit different:
if (ecto_sell_price*1.27+socket_sell_price+inscription/insignia_sell_price*0.42 +material_sell_price*material_drop_rate-kit_buy_price < item_sell_price) sell it
else salvage it
the inscription/insignia_sell_price. first, you have to know what stat types can drop those. they are the ones that can’t be crafted: Soldier’s, Magi’s, Rabid, Shaman’s, Sentinel’s, Dire, Cavalier’s. second, crafted exotics can never give inscirptions/insignia. third, it’s helpful to know which named exotic weapons don’t drop them even though they should. I think in general, it’s the ones that can only come out of champ bags. I’ve posted several times on this subject:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/players/The-right-Salvage-Kits-for-the-right-items/first#post4347596
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/players/Salvaging-exotics-for-Inscriptions/first#post2970307

there’s also the question of using a master kit or black lion kit. I recommend saving the black lion kits for the really expensive salvaged materials (In general, the limit is at about 70% of the price of 100 gems. 14g * 0.7 = 9g80s). If you’re literally swimming in black lion kits from key farming (for example), then you can lower your threshold to 8g, 7g, 6g; however low you think to use the kits as quickly as you get them, but I would still recommend saving them for more expensive stuff and not just use them everywhere.

14 ectos from 8 rares is really lucky; niccccce. you would normally expect to get 7 ectos from 8 rares. unless you’re using black lion salvage kits? (the gem store one) If you are, I’d recommend saving those for more deserving items (where the salvaged materials sell for >9g) you do get more ectos, but not nearly enough to make it worth buying those.

guildwarstemple.com looks like it has timers for the world bosses, but not the temples. It shows the temples, just no timer for them. maybe I’m just looking at the wrong time and it would move them to the top if the event activated?

I never pay attention to the temple timers cause they never seem to work haha…. and what kind of items would you save for black lion salvage kits? I am sitting on a few of them and have been scare to waste them.

I probably had 3 or 4 ectos in my bag already I didn’t think about. Either way the ectos + other mats has already made your advice worth it. I read you guide to and I took a few pointers from it I am going to get some mileage out of. An absolute pleasure to have you take time to respond and help out. Thanks!

One thing no one mentioned is LUCK and Precursor Mystic Forge Rolling

For example I save all my rare daggers/swords/greatswords to roll in the mystic forge for a chance at precursor

Before I maxed out magic find I would salvage everything for luck but that obviously takes a long time

But obviously neither of these options is taking into consideration strictly the max profit so yeah depends where you are gold-wise the above options for luck and precursors is probably better when you have nothing to spend money on

How about greens and blues?

I salvage some greens (all light armor, heavy chest pieces and greatswords) but it seems it’s more cost effective to sell all the blues and most of the greens. I tried salvaging all greens and while I got some luck out of it, the mats I got didn’t cover the cost of the items salvaged.

(My luck is about 140-141)

Toylatrine.5862:

I never pay attention to the temple timers cause they never seem to work haha…. and what kind of items would you save for black lion salvage kits? I am sitting on a few of them and have been scare to waste them.

Sentinel’s Rogue Pants of Hoelbrak is a good example. Sentinel’s insignia sells for 9g20s, superior rune of hoelbrak sells for 9g50s
also Dire Sneakthief Leggings of the Traveler. Dire insignia sells for 2g70s, superior rune of the traveler sells for 8g50s
there are not many items where it’s better to use blsk. there used to be more, but gem price went up and inscription/insignia price went down.
like I said: if you have a lot, use them for things that are still expensive, but maybe not as expensive as I recommended.

Narkodx.1472:

One thing no one mentioned is LUCK and Precursor Mystic Forge Rolling

For example I save all my rare daggers/swords/greatswords to roll in the mystic forge for a chance at precursor

Before I maxed out magic find I would salvage everything for luck but that obviously takes a long time

But obviously neither of these options is taking into consideration strictly the max profit so yeah depends where you are gold-wise the above options for luck and precursors is probably better when you have nothing to spend money on

This is certainly an option. I wouldn’t always recommend it, and only do it with select item types. Some numbers to help you decide if you want to go this route:

• average level of the items you throw in the forge should be 75 or higher to maximize your chance of getting a level 80 out as only a level 80 has a chance at getting a precursor.
  (examples: 75+75+75+75, or 65+80+80+80, or 70+70+80+80, or 80+80+80+80, or etc.)
• 1 in 128 attempts with level 75+ exotics produces a precursor
• 1 in 782 attempts with level 75+ rares produces a precursor

From that, we get this example:
Spark sells for 1476g
1476g / 782 attempts / 4 rares/attempt = 47s18c/rare
So the rare daggers you throw into the forge have a value of 47s18c each. If you can sell the dagger to the TP for more than that, it would be better to sell it. If you can salvage for more than that (see formula above), it would be better salvaged.
If you want to look into this, I recommend reading some of the posts by Nugkill on reddit.

Astral Projections.7320:

How about greens and blues?

I salvage some greens (all light armor, heavy chest pieces and greatswords) but it seems it’s more cost effective to sell all the blues and most of the greens. I tried salvaging all greens and while I got some luck out of it, the mats I got didn’t cover the cost of the items salvaged.

(My luck is about 140-141)

The summary for whites, blues, and greens (based purely on chance of recovering the socket):
If socket < 9c: Crude
If socket > 9c: Basic / CFSoM
If socket > 41c: Fine
If socket > 1s2c: Journeyman
If socket > 1s47c: Master
Since greens have minor runes/sigils, and minor rune/sigils sell for like 20c, basic/CFSoM would be best. This is for peak profit. I would recommend just using basic/CFSoM because they are easier to carry around/use than crude – there will be slightly less profit, but the ease of use will make up for it.
There is a slight increase in the chance of promotion by using a higher kit, but it’s almost not enough to take into consideration. going from crude to master increases the chance from 10% to 15% (ish), so if you were salvaging lvl 80 heavy armor, you would get 5% more ori, which is a 20c increase per salvage, which does not justify spending 61c for the salvage kit.

Deciding to sell or salvage is hard for these. You have to look at the item type, level, and know what material that gives. I posted all that on the Profiting Guide in my signature. You’ll have to do the math. Personally, I recommend not caring that much about them. You might want to look through them real quick to see if any sell for like >20s, but usually I just salvage all whites, blues, greens (especially if you’re working on your luck mf). the sell price will 99 of the time be right around what the salvage value is.

Thanks for the info Mystic. That is what I suspected. It’s good to see a confirmation.
(As for salvage kits, I almost never buy them. ^^ The Charr and Norn cultural weapon sellers have fine kits for 252 karma and basic kits sell for 77 karma at Valiant Mathair).

77 karma vs. 88c for basic kit, which is 11s42c/1000 karma
252 karma vs. 2s88c for fine kit, which is 11s42c/1000 karma
wow, I dont know why but I honestly did not expect those to be exactly the same. anyways, that’s not a half-bad use of karma. not the best, but not the worst.
lost orrian boxes are about 4s/1000 karma (fast)
beaded weapons are about 40s/1000 karma (slow)
legendaries are about 15-30s/1000 karma (technically this is higher, but there are other account-bound mats, so I divided by 3.)
so; yeah. a decent use of karma.

best option is to list a sell price equal or slightly lower to the lowest sell price and then buy the materials you need. you aren’t guaranteed to come up with a profit via salvaging even using black lion kits, you’d just have a higher chance.

Narkodx.1472:

One thing no one mentioned is LUCK and Precursor Mystic Forge Rolling

For example I save all my rare daggers/swords/greatswords to roll in the mystic forge for a chance at precursor

Before I maxed out magic find I would salvage everything for luck but that obviously takes a long time

But obviously neither of these options is taking into consideration strictly the max profit so yeah depends where you are gold-wise the above options for luck and precursors is probably better when you have nothing to spend money on

salvaging rares and exotics doesnt yield luck.

Wanze.8410:

Narkodx.1472:

One thing no one mentioned is LUCK and Precursor Mystic Forge Rolling

For example I save all my rare daggers/swords/greatswords to roll in the mystic forge for a chance at precursor

Before I maxed out magic find I would salvage everything for luck but that obviously takes a long time

But obviously neither of these options is taking into consideration strictly the max profit so yeah depends where you are gold-wise the above options for luck and precursors is probably better when you have nothing to spend money on

salvaging rares and exotics doesnt yield luck.

They do if you also salvage the Ectos.

Inquiring about how to make more money from your Rares and then admitting you sell to buy orders is an oxymoron…..never sell to buy orders. Period. If you are going to be lazy about it, at LEAST match the highest sell order…. (this is assuming the buy / sell order delta is at least a few silver).

Of course, the TP players on this forum will never tell you this….you are their favorite type of player.

Astral Projections.7320:

How about greens and blues?

I salvage some greens (all light armor, heavy chest pieces and greatswords) but it seems it’s more cost effective to sell all the blues and most of the greens. I tried salvaging all greens and while I got some luck out of it, the mats I got didn’t cover the cost of the items salvaged.

(My luck is about 140-141)

I forge all my greens unless they are cloth. you get about 1 rare/16 greens.

Mystic where does the 128 exotic/782 rare forge attempts per precursor come from?

Aberrant.6749:

Mystic where does the 128 exotic/782 rare forge attempts per precursor come from?

Averages from high volume research. There are people that forge precursors for a living.

mtpelion.4562:

Wanze.8410:

Narkodx.1472:

One thing no one mentioned is LUCK and Precursor Mystic Forge Rolling

For example I save all my rare daggers/swords/greatswords to roll in the mystic forge for a chance at precursor

Before I maxed out magic find I would salvage everything for luck but that obviously takes a long time

But obviously neither of these options is taking into consideration strictly the max profit so yeah depends where you are gold-wise the above options for luck and precursors is probably better when you have nothing to spend money on

salvaging rares and exotics doesnt yield luck.

They do if you also salvage the Ectos.

The luck still comes from the ectos, not the rares/exotics.
Ectos also arent a guaranteed salvage mat, no ecto, no luck.
No Ellen, No Cry.

Brother Grimm.5176:

Of course, the TP players on this forum will never tell you this….you are their favorite type of player.

It is the first bit of advice I give on my guide, right after intro and table of contents.
I don’t worry about competition. if people are impatient, no amount of recommendations will have them buy with buy orders and sell with sell listings instead of instant. So I’m not worried. Although, it does help my profits to have more impatient people. A lot of what I do to make gold is get paid to make things more convenient for other people.

Wanze.8410:

Aberrant.6749:

Mystic where does the 128 exotic/782 rare forge attempts per precursor come from?

Averages from high volume research. There are people that forge precursors for a living.

As Wanze said, except it wasn’t by me. Specifically, there is a guy called Nugkill on Reddit that posted his precursor forging details. Just from what he’s posted, he’s forged over 200 precursors, which is edging on the statistically significant amount required to get a good drop rate. After the recent forge revamp (when they made the output more random), he did a wave of testing that showed the precursor drop rate hadn’t changed from before the revamp. To do that, he started with 8703 exotics into the forge (2901 attempts) and got 23 precursors out (2901 / 23 = 1 in 126.13 attempts). A quote from earlier than that: “Just want to point out that, with more data recorded than anyone I’ve heard of, my rate for a precursor from exotics is 1 in 127 attempts (27,500 exotic weapons forged) and the chance from rares is 1 in 785 attempts (395,000 rare weapons forged).”
I got the numbers I said from averaging several of his posts with other people who have posted large results.
Another thing that seems to be the case: 4 random weapons vs. 4 weapons of the same type seem to have the same chance of giving a precursor (though the 4 random weapons would give a random precursor)

Mystic.5934:

As Wanze said, except it wasn’t by me. Specifically, there is a guy called Nugkill on Reddit that posted his precursor forging details. Just from what he’s posted, he’s forged over 200 precursors, which is edging on the statistically significant amount required to get a good drop rate. After the recent forge revamp (when they made the output more random), he did a wave of testing that showed the precursor drop rate hadn’t changed from before the revamp. To do that, he started with 8703 exotics into the forge (2901 attempts) and got 23 precursors out (2901 / 23 = 1 in 126.13 attempts). A quote from earlier than that: “Just want to point out that, with more data recorded than anyone I’ve heard of, my rate for a precursor from exotics is 1 in 127 attempts (27,500 exotic weapons forged) and the chance from rares is 1 in 785 attempts (395,000 rare weapons forged).”
I got the numbers I said from averaging several of his posts with other people who have posted large results.
Another thing that seems to be the case: 4 random weapons vs. 4 weapons of the same type seem to have the same chance of giving a precursor (though the 4 random weapons would give a random precursor)

So if you use Mystic Forge Stones from Achi Chests/Dailies/Map Completion, you only need 255 exotic weapons (lvl 75+) on average to forge a random precursor.
If you get them on buy order, you get them for an average of under 2g per weapon, so 400-500g to forge a random precursor.

Thanks for the info

Wanze.8410:

So if you use Mystic Forge Stones from Achi Chests/Dailies/Map Completion, you only need 255 exotic weapons (lvl 75+) on average to forge a random precursor.
If you get them on buy order, you get them for an average of under 2g per weapon, so 400-500g to forge a random precursor.

currently, the average sell price of all precursors is about 712g
at first, I didn’t see where you got 255 exotics from :P
255 / 3 = 85 new exotics (85 forgings)
85 / 3 = 28 new exotics (28 forgings)
29 / 3 = 9 new exotics (9 forgings)
11 / 3 = 3 new exotics (3 forgings)
5 / 3 = 1 new exotic (1 forging)
3 / 3 = 1 new exotic (1 forging)
85 + 28 + 9 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 127 forgings total
yup, that would do it! (on average) it would require 127 mystic forge stones.

to do this without stones, you would need to start with 382 exotics (make sure the weapon types are different): 95 + 24 + 6 + 1 + 1 = 127. at the 1.5-2g price per exotic, that’s 573g-762g. which basically negates all profit after TP tax even at the 1.5g price :P

I’ve been curious about including armor in this. say: 3 level 75 exotic armor + 1 level 75 exotic weapon. what are the odds of getting a precursor?

sorry, I think we might of changed topics and should continue this elsewhere. I’ll make a post

Mystic.5934:

Wanze.8410:

So if you use Mystic Forge Stones from Achi Chests/Dailies/Map Completion, you only need 255 exotic weapons (lvl 75+) on average to forge a random precursor.
If you get them on buy order, you get them for an average of under 2g per weapon, so 400-500g to forge a random precursor.

currently, the average sell price of all precursors is about 712g
at first, I didn’t see where you got 255 exotics from :P
255 / 3 = 85 new exotics (85 forgings)
85 / 3 = 28 new exotics (28 forgings)
29 / 3 = 9 new exotics (9 forgings)
11 / 3 = 3 new exotics (3 forgings)
5 / 3 = 1 new exotic (1 forging)
3 / 3 = 1 new exotic (1 forging)
85 + 28 + 9 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 127 forgings total
yup, that would do it! (on average) it would require 127 mystic forge stones.

to do this without stones, you would need to start with 382 exotics (make sure the weapon types are different): 95 + 24 + 6 + 1 + 1 = 127. at the 1.5-2g price per exotic, that’s 573g-762g. which basically negates all profit after TP tax even at the 1.5g price :P

I’ve been curious about including armor in this. say: 3 level 75 exotic armor + 1 level 75 exotic weapon. what are the odds of getting a precursor?

sorry, I think we might of changed topics and should continue this elsewhere. I’ll make a post

Well, my math was a bit easier, i guess:
When using forge stones you need 3 weapons for the first attempt and 2 each for attempt 2-127 because you always get 1 exotic weapon from the previous attempt.
so 2*127+1=255

I m not surprised though that this method without mf stones more or less breaks even with average precursor costs.
The mf stones are the kicker.

Thats why I also dont use my mf stones to make mystic salvage kits, even though i propably go through 10-20 master salvage kits per day. I always use them for forging exotic weapons because that way, they save me 1.5-2g each.

I mostly paid a little more for the exotics i used (2-2.5g) because i bought the cheap named exotics whose skins i hadnt unlocked yet.

Wanze.8410:

Well, my math was a bit easier, i guess:
When using forge stones you need 3 weapons for the first attempt and 2 each for attempt 2-127 because you always get 1 exotic weapon from the previous attempt.
so 2*127+1=255

duuuuuuude. you remind me a story my precalc highschool teacher told us. went something like this:
Little Johnny was a know-it-all, his math teachers hated him, because they would ask him a question and he would fire back the correct answer right away. Mr. Krabs got annoyed by this, so decided to give Johnny a problem he couldn’t do quick: add up all the numbers from 1 to 100. Assuming this would take an hour, he left Johnny to it. 2 minutes later, Johnny comes up with the right answer: 5,050. Mr. Krabs is dumbfounded and demands who helped him cheat. Johnny explained: 1+99=100, 2+98=100, … , 49+51=100. 49×100+50+100 = 5,050.
I shall use this forbidden knowledge wisely

Mystic.5934:

Wanze.8410:

Well, my math was a bit easier, i guess:
When using forge stones you need 3 weapons for the first attempt and 2 each for attempt 2-127 because you always get 1 exotic weapon from the previous attempt.
so 2*127+1=255

duuuuuuude. you remind me a story my precalc highschool teacher told us. went something like this:
Little Johnny was a know-it-all, his math teachers hated him, because they would ask him a question and he would fire back the correct answer right away. Mr. Krabs got annoyed by this, so decided to give Johnny a problem he couldn’t do quick: add up all the numbers from 1 to 100. Assuming this would take an hour, he left Johnny to it. 2 minutes later, Johnny comes up with the right answer: 5,050. Mr. Krabs is dumbfounded and demands who helped him cheat. Johnny explained: 1+99=100, 2+98=100, … , 49+51=100. 49×100+50+100 = 5,050.
I shall use this forbidden knowledge wisely

If I was Johnny, i would calculate:
1+100=101, 2+99=101…50+51=101
50*101=5050

Wanze.8410:

Mystic.5934:

Wanze.8410:

Well, my math was a bit easier, i guess:
When using forge stones you need 3 weapons for the first attempt and 2 each for attempt 2-127 because you always get 1 exotic weapon from the previous attempt.
so 2*127+1=255

duuuuuuude. you remind me a story my precalc highschool teacher told us. went something like this:
Little Johnny was a know-it-all, his math teachers hated him, because they would ask him a question and he would fire back the correct answer right away. Mr. Krabs got annoyed by this, so decided to give Johnny a problem he couldn’t do quick: add up all the numbers from 1 to 100. Assuming this would take an hour, he left Johnny to it. 2 minutes later, Johnny comes up with the right answer: 5,050. Mr. Krabs is dumbfounded and demands who helped him cheat. Johnny explained: 1+99=100, 2+98=100, … , 49+51=100. 49×100+50+100 = 5,050.
I shall use this forbidden knowledge wisely

If I was Johnny, i would calculate:
1+100=101, 2+99=101…50+51=101
50*101=5050

I wouldn’t be Johnny. He got his lunch money stolen and wedgies….

eithinan.9841:

Wanze.8410:

Mystic.5934:

Wanze.8410:

Well, my math was a bit easier, i guess:
When using forge stones you need 3 weapons for the first attempt and 2 each for attempt 2-127 because you always get 1 exotic weapon from the previous attempt.
so 2*127+1=255

duuuuuuude. you remind me a story my precalc highschool teacher told us. went something like this:
Little Johnny was a know-it-all, his math teachers hated him, because they would ask him a question and he would fire back the correct answer right away. Mr. Krabs got annoyed by this, so decided to give Johnny a problem he couldn’t do quick: add up all the numbers from 1 to 100. Assuming this would take an hour, he left Johnny to it. 2 minutes later, Johnny comes up with the right answer: 5,050. Mr. Krabs is dumbfounded and demands who helped him cheat. Johnny explained: 1+99=100, 2+98=100, … , 49+51=100. 49×100+50+100 = 5,050.
I shall use this forbidden knowledge wisely

If I was Johnny, i would calculate:
1+100=101, 2+99=101…50+51=101
50*101=5050

I wouldn’t be Johnny. He got his lunch money stolen and wedgies….

But when Johnny was able to earn his own lunch money and buy himself some designer knickers, those who gave him wedgies, could only complain about him in an anominous internet forum.

My man teacher told that story like it was an actual thing that happened. But his name wasn’t Johnny, it was Carl (Gauß). (It’s in the german version of Wikipedia but not the english one hmmmm.)

And Gauss wrote down the answer (5050) immedately, he didn’t take two minutes to think about it.

And Gauss was IIRC six years old at the time.

Mystic.5934:

A quote from earlier than that: “Just want to point out that, with more data recorded than anyone I’ve heard of, my rate for a precursor from exotics is 1 in 127 attempts (27,500 exotic weapons forged) and the chance from rares is 1 in 785 attempts (395,000 rare weapons forged).”

Interestingly, if you assume the distribution of exotics after the 20% upgrade from rares is identical to what you get from putting 4 exotics in straight, these two numbers are reasonably consistent with each other.

This sample size is still ‘small’ from the perspective of telling those two rates apart.

Nugkill did point out somewhere that getting a precursor from rares is less likely than getting them from exotics after you account for a 20% chance of promotion.
meaning:
rare -> exotic = 20% chance
exotic -> precursor = 0.787% chance
expected rare -> exotic -> precursor = 0.157% chance (20% of the exotic -> precursor)
actual rare -> precursor = 0.127% chance (significantly lower than expected)
the difference between expected and actual is 1 in 635 vs. 1 in 785
with the sample size he has, the chance that that is just random deviation is astronomically small. It’s 20% less likely than it should be. that would be like salvaging 200 rares and getting 140 ectos instead of 175 ectos.

I went ahead and did the math for that ecto scenario…
for comparison, the chance of getting 173-178 ectos is about 43.8% (1 in 2.3ish)
meanwhile, the chance of getting 138-142 ectos is about 0.00000120119% (1 in 83,250,776)
I would do the same for the precursor, but I don’t have Nugkill’s exact sample size on hand :P

because I like fun numbers: the chance of salvaging 200 rares and getting exactly 1 ecto is 3.55×10^-151. If you salvaged 200 rares every 1 yoctosecond (one septillionth of a second), it would take you roughly 10^110 (a 1 followed by 110 zeros, btw) times as long as the universe is old to get only 1 ecto.

Just a random thought about the average amount of exotics you need to acquire in order to get a precursor (382) assuming you get a precursor every 127th forge on average:

This number can be lowered, if you sell those Exotics that come out of the forge that sell for more than the cheapest exotic on the TP.

To Salvage, or not to slavage? That is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous RNG, or to take up arms against a sea of buy orders, and by fufilling them, end them?