Guild Wars 2

Just been taking a look at the demand for dyes on the spidy site (direct link) and noticing a massive surge in demand over the last few days. I’m wondering, is this because of China?

During the buying and selling frenzy that happened pre-Apr-15th patch we only saw just over 400k buy orders at most… now it’s skyrocketed to over 2.7M and still rising. As supplies deplete, costs for unid dyes are only going to go further up. How many people kept a special reserve of unid’s in case something like this happened?

It has nothing to do with China, because China TP is completely separate from ours.

Don’t bother with the demand side. That’s too easy to game. Just put in a ton of bids at 1c, and it looks like HUGE demand. It’s the supply side of the equation that will determine the rising price over time.

I think it is because people realised that dyes will be gone soon, and the only way how to get 1 unidentified dye is to buy it with 5 Laurels! Ridiculous…

I too bought 100 unidentified dyes just in case I will want to craft Legend if there will be precursor quest in 2029 or something like that.

I would like to invest in them, but I am not sure if it can yield profit in time, as the colours are account bound and there won’t be any new players in game. So I rather don’t play TP..market is too unpredictable with all those changes ArenaNet is making to the game.

Yes but look at the amount of buy orders. It’s jumped a massive near-7-fold from the price when demand was highest before the patch. Prices have risen slightly accordingly. Tell me who would place that many buy orders, and if at such a low price as suggested, why is the price going slowly up again? BTW I’m looking at the mean (avg) price here nothing else.

I’m not in-game to check at the moment, but check to see whether or not that massive increase in bids is just some speculators who have placed thousands of bids at 1c in an effort to falsely push up demand. (This has happened before with the Southsun aquabreathers and several of the Black Lion Ticket weapons.)

In short, it’s likely to be “fake demand” that will be pulled as soon as the price reaches what the speculator wanted and he can dump his stock. Don’t get fooled by it.

I still believe prices for Unid Dyes will improve in the long-term, but it will be months down the track, not so soon after the Apr 15th update.

The extra ~2m are fake 1c offers to push it up on the TPs most demanded list, so it’s seen by muppets such as yourself.

Still, a good 5% of the supply dried up over night. I didn’t really expect that.

I’m patiently waiting for the cost to rise. I’ve got 350 of them in my inventory right now (after going on a huge duplicate dye-buying binge).

Still, I’m not shocked they were at 24 silver or so over the past few weeks.

Flissy.4093:

The extra ~2m are fake 1c offers to push it up on the TPs most demanded list, so it’s seen by muppets such as yourself.

Ever the antagonist. Very assumptionist of you, but if you’ll bother reading my OP I said the figures/graphs I was looking at were from the gw2spidy site. I don’t bother looking at the front page of the TP for most demanded/top traded/etc. because as you so eloquently put, they’re for the ‘muppets’. As mentioned above, the supply is slowly drying up and the price is above what it was before, 1c offers included.

The demand side is obviously fake orders. It’s similar to love protectors shield which have 2.6 million buy orders.

If your really bored(or have a script) and have 200 gold, you can bump the buy order to 2 million.

The demand side is probably mostly from speculator’s/investor. Everyone trying to hoard them.

It is really a patient game now. See how many of those flippers trying to dump it and at what price.

If you wait longer, you can dump at a higher price.

I dont’ think anyone in the right mind will spend laurel or mystic forge for unidentified dyes at the current price, but you can still get them from black lion chest. So there are still supplys, just really low supply.

It’s similar to the quartz crystal situation a very long time ago. Most of the demand is from hoarders. I think people generally believe the price will go up, the question is just how long it going to take.

I’m patient enough to wait a year to sell my dragon coffer, and it pays off. So it is really a patient game now.

It was obvious that supply would dwindle and cause the price to slowly rise. Since there is no way to get them anymore except for 5 laurels the supply will keep dwindling. The smart people new this and saved/bought all they could and gamed the system with duplicates. Expect the prices to go way up and finally plateau in about 6 months.

I think it is an obvious item to invest mainly because in the long run, unidentified dye most likely will be worth more than 15-20 silver. Or a better way to say it, it probably won’t drop less than 15 silver, so there is less risk.

It’s like all the people hoarding items that sell for vendor value on the trading post. Even if it won’t go up, it most likely can’t drop much lower.

So much fake demand being generated. There is so much hidden stock, 90% of my friends have stacks waiting to unload and everyone bought all the colors they wanted already. China market is separate so it won’t effect start we have. If you want to lock up what gold you have for another half year or more then I guess you can buy some now.

Oh, you can still get them in the black lion chests so a side benefit to all the key farmers.

captainteemo.6537:

Oh, you can still get them in the black lion chests so a side benefit to all the key farmers.

Key farming is practically the only rewarding content anymore.

prices has been flowing from 19s (right after feature patch release) → upto 26s 2 days later. Demand increased, nothing got sold however. Since then the price kept swinging between 20-24s. Wich it still is now.

Those who invested, hold on to them for now.
Those who don’t invested, don’t bother. Unless you have alot of spare gold to invest in tings like this it’s better to stay away from it.

The demand will not increase as uni dyes are only favorable to new players (but even then its probably better to save gold and buy the specific kind of dye you want) or people that require 100 for a legendary.

I don’t expect much increase in value, not even in the comming few months. Its going to increase in value but at a really slow phase I think

I have 4000 of them in storage. They will go up. It is only a matter of time.

I bought 100 when the price was about 21s. I also got 3 more from a BL chest that one of my low level alts got the key for personal story.
Time to buy one more char slot to key farm with. After the trait changes I can’t bring myself to delete any of my 8 grandfathered characters. However buying a slot for a char that will constantly be deleted doesn’t feel bad at all. Maybe key farming will be the new source for unid dyes in the future.

Infernia.9847:

I bought 100 when the price was about 21s. I also got 3 more from a BL chest that one of my low level alts got the key for personal story.
Time to buy one more char slot to key farm with. After the trait changes I can’t bring myself to delete any of my 8 grandfathered characters. However buying a slot for a char that will constantly be deleted doesn’t feel bad at all. Maybe key farming will be the new source for unid dyes in the future.

Aren’t BL chests the only source of new unid dyes right now? Cooking will give you unid [color] dyes but not unid dyes that this thread is about.

Eventually the stockpiled dyes will give out. It will be interesting then to see what happens.

Laurel vendor sells them too.

Herr der Friedhoefe.2490:

Laurel vendor sells them too.

Yeah at what cost though? Price would have to get pretty high before that option became viable.

Without checking to validate; I believe you can take four crafted unid dyes and put them in the forge to get a true unid dye. I will have to check and make sure I’m not making this up though.

So, BL chests, laurel vendors for 5 laurels (ouch) and the mystic forge are the only ways to get new unid dyes now.

I can’t see people using laurels much for this. Even if they do it’s only one new unid dye every 5 days. That leaves BL chests and the mystic forge. Unless there are a lot of chests being opened or dyes being crafted, that’s a fairly small trickle of dyes coming in. So, it will be crafting that takes up the slack if the prices get high enough. I can’t see people buying keys for this.

Astral Projections.7320:

So, BL chests, laurel vendors for 5 laurels (ouch) and the mystic forge are the only ways to get new unid dyes now.

I can’t see people using laurels much for this. Even if they do it’s only one new unid dye every 5 days. That leaves BL chests and the mystic forge. Unless there are a lot of chests being opened or dyes being crafted, that’s a fairly small trickle of dyes coming in. So, it will be crafting that takes up the slack if the prices get high enough. I can’t see people buying keys for this.

Its not so much that people buy or farm keys to get Unids but chests get opened nonetheless. I dont think that the amount of BL chests being opened is insignificant, either.
I once listed a couple of black lion chests at the lowest listing of 5 copper, at that time there were around 100k more listings at 5 copper. My chests sold within 2 weeks.

Herr der Friedhoefe.2490:

Laurel vendor sells them too.

The laurel vendor’s price was increased to the point that the unid dyes will have to be fairly expensive before it makes sense to use that method. (The price increase was 10x, which means it keeps the cost equal if we average 10 characters … given that the dye can be used on all of them now.)

It’s been 2.5 months; it looks like you have made a small profit if you bought under 20s and sell now (~25% after taxes). That’s a somewhat faster rate of use than I would have expected, but we’re still clearly burning off the glut of unid dyes — no one should be trading laurels or using cooking recipes to make them yet. (And I’m still holding onto stacks & stacks of ID’ed dyes…)

Wanze.8410:

Astral Projections.7320:

So, BL chests, laurel vendors for 5 laurels (ouch) and the mystic forge are the only ways to get new unid dyes now.

I can’t see people using laurels much for this. Even if they do it’s only one new unid dye every 5 days. That leaves BL chests and the mystic forge. Unless there are a lot of chests being opened or dyes being crafted, that’s a fairly small trickle of dyes coming in. So, it will be crafting that takes up the slack if the prices get high enough. I can’t see people buying keys for this.

Its not so much that people buy or farm keys to get Unids but chests get opened nonetheless. I dont think that the amount of BL chests being opened is insignificant, either.
I once listed a couple of black lion chests at the lowest listing of 5 copper, at that time there were around 100k more listings at 5 copper. My chests sold within 2 weeks.

That’s certainly more than I would have thought.

The drop rate for unid dyes from the chests from the wiki, as rough as the numbers are, seem to be around 35%. My personal average so far is 27% (43 unid dyes total out of 156 chests).