Moa racing runs on statistics and there’s no luck involved. You will never make a profit in the long run playing because this was made as a gold sink and the expected profit is less than the cost. If you are going for the 3 win achievement or the mini, you should try to minimize your costs. The best strategy is to simply bet on the same Moa everytime. This will minimize your expected cost as switching Moas can only increase it.
Moa racing runs on statistics and there’s no luck involved. You will never make a profit in the long run playing because this was made as a gold sink and the expected profit is less than the cost. If you are going for the 3 win achievement or the mini, you should try to minimize your costs. The best strategy is to simply bet on the same Moa everytime. This will maximize your odds as switching Moas can only lower your odds.
(also applies to RNG boxes bought with gems, at least for me, as much as I don’t like them I respect whoever buys them aware that they might not get anything)
It’s a pile of Elonian protection magic, mixed with a little monk training,
wrapped up in some crazy ritualist hoo-ha from Cantha.
A real grab bag of ‘you can’t hurt me. They’re called Guardians.
It doesnt matter if you switch moas. Its 20% chance for each place.
You’re right in that the odds are always the same. I updated my post to say expected costs rather than odds.
Think of it like a graph of a wave that intersects a horizontal line. That line is the long run expected profit of 44s per race. The wave is the Moa’s current profit/loss which can be higher or lower than the average profit because of winning/losing streaks. In the long run, they will always average out around the horizontal line. Each Moa has the same odds of winning, but they are always on different points of the long run trend. If you stick with only one Moa, then you will ride the highs and lows of the wave and end up with the average. If you start changing Moa’s, then you change your point on the wave and will in a way “reset” yourself odds. If you’re Moa is on a losing streak, then you may feel inclined to change to a “luckier” one. If so, then you just moved from the low point in the wave that is expecting to swing upwards towards a point that is high and is about to swing downwards.
There’s no waves, and no lucky or unlucky streaks. A specific moa might win or lose 3 races in a row, that doesn’t mean that it is more likely or less likely than any other moa to win race number 4.
When you flip a coin, and you get heads 3 times in a row (or 10… or whatever), then upon the next throw the chance to get heads again is still 50%.
The Gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 191312), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.
So, unless ANet are trolling us with some secret algorithm which I doubt, then it doesn’t matter whether you pick one and stick with it or whether you switch every time or any other combination of the two.
Why do I doubt that there is a secret strategy to be worked out? Because ANet knows that if there was a way to get an edge on the odds, every single player would start betting on the same moa (per match) and suddenly it wouldn’t be a money sink anymore. Now why would they do that? Why wouldn’t they implement it in a way that simply randomizes the winning moa, guaranteeing that players will make a steady loss the more they play?
