Guild Wars 2

This is the first day I’ve been able to get on for this event and my friends were talking about the new weapon skins so I decided to grab a few boxes to get some. I got 1 rich coffer and got a ticket. I saw the skins when I was redeeming my ticket and decided to try again(I needed a dagger to go with my sword, after all.) 1 box, 1 ticket. I thought to myself, might as well try again. 1 box 1 ticket. I think the drop rate of these tickets is unnecessarily high and should probably be reduced. It seems out of control that they’re dropping this much.

Obvious troll.

No troll, I was in vent when it happened. Lucky kittener….

Just luck. 2 boxes doesn’t prove anything.

No .

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/livingworld/dragonbash/Opening-1000-regular-Dragon-Coffers-Merged/page/20#post2311577

Day 19: still no ticket. So there.

OP is funny guy. very funny.

i got lucky 2 tickets from about 300 normal coffers… I would have given my tickets away but they are account bound. Looks like they will be sitting in the storage until the time is right

Just goes to show how troll this rng can be, I managed to get 1 ticket out of 150 rich coffers…

anecdotal evidence = / = facts.

extremely lucky nonetheless. : )) grats. put ’em to good use.

Current research shows a 1.3% drop chance. To be fair, the statistics of said research remain low enough for statistical error to be a significant factor, but for a box that has a 100 gem price tag on it and where the coffers and recipes are really the only things of value you can get out of them (people looking to get tickets have devalued everything else), it’s actually pretty low.

You just got lucky. The odds of a player getting three tickets in the first three rich dragon coffers are only about one in half a million – there are enough players in the game that it’s not surprising that that would happen for someone.

I’m not sure there’d be half a million players willing to drop gems on RNG boxes, but there are probably enough that a one-in-half-a-million chance has a significant likelihood of happening to someone. Congratulations on it being you. However, be aware the odds of what happened to you are about the same as the odds for opening a thousand rich coffers and not getting anything.

Protip for anyone willing to keep throwing money at the chance for a jade ticket – you actually get a significantly better chance from buying regular coffers off the TP with current prices, even if you finance that by buying gems with real money and selling them for gold. By about an order of magnitude. The number of coffers that have an expectation value of one ticket costs about fifteen gold, while you’ll need over a hundred gold worth of gems at current prices to have an expectation value of one ticket from buying rich coffers.

(Frankly, if I was ArenaNet, I’d make everything except extra storage and extra slots cheaper. Storage and slots are, I think, pretty much the only things that cost them money worth speaking of beyond the initial investment of developing them, while the prices of pretty much everything in the shop are enough to make people baulk – I suspect that a drop in prices would result in an increased volume of sales that would more than make up for the loss in profit per sale. Now, there’s probably an optimal point where the function of price x volume is maximised, but I’d be willing to bet that it’s substantially lower than the current prices for, well, everything.)

draxynnic.3719:

Current research shows a 1.3% drop chance.

Sorry, gotta correct your base assumption for this post. It’s 0.08%. So that’s what, 1 in 1250 coffers?

The drop rate research can be found here:
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dragon_Coffer/drop_rate

It kind of affects what you say in a major way, when it jumps from 1 in 100 to more than 1 in 1000.

I opened 3 loot bags the other day and got 2 holographic knight minis. They’re the only things I’ve got from opening many, many, more bags over the whole dragon bash event. Streaks of luck can and do happen. Very long droughts are likely to happen to many people as well.

Buttercup.5871:

draxynnic.3719:

Current research shows a 1.3% drop chance.

Sorry, gotta correct your base assumption for this post. It’s 0.08%. So that’s what, 1 in 1250 coffers?

The drop rate research can be found here:
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dragon_Coffer/drop_rate

It is ~ 1.3 for the Rich Dragon Coffers.

The OP was talking about the Rich ones, too.

If the tickets could be traded on the TP it would even out for people who haven’t gotten them… Some of those people who have contributed to the drop rate research bought hundreds or thousands of coffers and didn’t get a ticket. Please don’t make ignorant suggestions.

I opened like 400 normal boxes to get my first ticket, and then I got the second one after opening another 14.

Pixelpumpkin.4608:

Buttercup.5871:

draxynnic.3719:

Current research shows a 1.3% drop chance.

Sorry, gotta correct your base assumption for this post. It’s 0.08%. So that’s what, 1 in 1250 coffers?

The drop rate research can be found here:
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dragon_Coffer/drop_rate

It is ~ 1.3 for the Rich Dragon Coffers.

The OP was talking about the Rich ones, too.

Indeed. I assumed it was clear from the context.

My calculations on whether it was better to get rich or normal was based off 1.3% for rich and 0.07% for normal, which were more or less current at time of posting (it was actually 1.26% for the rich coffers at the time, but I didn’t figure that was a big enough swing to be worth redoing the numbers).

He is talking about RICH dragon coffers, all the tears about the regular dragon coffers belong in another thread.

And imo in rich coffers they might still be too rare because imo 500ish gems should be very likely to get you one, as selling them directly would probably use a similar price. The OP was very lucky with 2 in 2.

Computers 101:
Random number generator generates numbers randomly.

Dahkeus.8243:

Computers 101:
Random number generator generates numbers randomly.

Actually. They don’t.

Well. They do and they don’t. Really only random over a very large set. A computer’s RNG can be much more streaky than what we expect, so sometimes steps are taken to make the RNG be a bit less random by making sure it doesn’t roll the same number multiple times in succession.

I agree the OP is a troll though.

Stooperdale.3560:

I opened 3 loot bags the other day and got 2 holographic knight minis. They’re the only things I’ve got from opening many, many, more bags over the whole dragon bash event. Streaks of luck can and do happen. Very long droughts are likely to happen to many people as well.

I don’t understand how they could be worth 20 silver. I have 28 sitting in my stash.

Speculation, probably. The value of the mini is also substantially less than the value of the coffers you’d expect to open to get one, so for someone who doesn’t care about tickets, they can sell the coffers they get and buy a mini or two without cutting significantly into their profits.