Guild Wars 2

People seem to think that precursors were being handed out to everyone at this event like candy corn. I’m here to kill that nasty rumor once and for all.

Anet said their highest concurrency is on Sunday at 12 PST (event time). They also said they had over 300,000 players on at their peak concurrency. So if we assume about 300,000 players got to participate in the event throughout the day (lower concurrency then their peak, say only 200,000 but the event ran repeatedly throughout the day allowing more people to participate, was still starting on some overflows as late as 9:00 PM PST) we can figure out the relative drop rate.

According to GW2Spidy: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185
The amount of dusks available for sale jumped from about 10 to 24 due to the event. Lets say that an additional 6 people bought dusk since it dropped in price giving us about 30 supply, which is 20 added to the market due to the event.
We can look at other precursors (Zap: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185) and see a similar trend, 10 to 40 in zap’s case. So overall we get an average of about 35 (high estimate, most only added about 20) precursors of each type were added into the market. There are 20 different precursors (only 10 of which are actually worth any money but we won’t worry about that here)

so 20*35 = 700 total precursor drops (within an order of magnitude)

700/300,000*100% = ~0.2% drop chance

which is about the same chance you have from the MF

So no, you did not miss a free precursor candy handout. Only a very small number of players got one, you just heard about it a lot because they were all concentrated in one area at one time with lots of people around that heard what happened.

How can you explain then that several guildies got a precursor (the short bow mostly) on that particular event ? Dozens of people participate in my guilds not hundreds or thousands.

A number of my guild mates also received precursors. Players that daily farm high level events, dungeons and never cease to use the Mystic Toilet.

35 ppl did the event from my guild. 15 finished the event and got to the chest (rest got DCed or other crap) from those 15, 10 ppl got at least one precursor. I think thats a pretty high % or we are one kitten lucky guild.

Pulling random numbers out of the air must be fun, even more fun to base all your information on a fan-site giving an average report, but well we all knew this fanboy thread would be made eventually.

Oh and same as above, 4 of my friends and 13 of my guildies all precursors, 0.2% drop chance I’m sure….

You are forgetting about all the people that are A ) saving the precursors they got to make legendaries, B ) the people that might not be able to afford the listing price and C ) the people that are going to wait for the prices to go back up. Potentially hundreds more that you wouldnt know about.

A lot of the people who got percursors did not sell them because they want to keep it for themselves and also because they realized the market would be flooded and price would drop, so they wait for better selling prices.

I think much more percursor weapons dropped last night.

I would risk a 10% drop rate considering the number of guys that linked their percursors from chest after we killed Ancient Karka compared to our zerg numbers.

Thanks and best regards,

Red

Yheazi.8034:

How can you explain then that several guildies got a precursor (the short bow mostly) on that particular event ? Dozens of people participate in my guilds not hundreds or thousands.

because several dozen (36?) out of 300,000 isn’t a large enough sample size to say anything. You are in a lucky guild. My guild of 300 only had 1 person get a precursor.

I almost doubled the amount of precursors actually added to the market to account for people using them for themselves and people who bought them before gw2spidy could take another data point. If you have more accurate numbers and a source for them I would be happy to do the numbers again, but based on what data I could find that is the drop rate.

Your numbers are way off. You just guessed “6” for some random reason, when the number is probably 100+. Several of my guildies stockpiled multiple dusk/dawns because the price spiked down to under 150g within minutes with quite a few others buying their precursor for crafting purposes. Our guild has less than 100 members. I can promise you tons of other people across all servers were doing the same.

I’m not saying it was free precursors for all, but the percentage is certainly over 10x what you speculate, probably way over.

Leo.6817:

Pulling random numbers out of the air must be fun, even more fun to base all your information on a fan-site giving an average report, but well we all knew this fanboy thread would be made eventually.

Oh and same as above, 4 of my friends and 13 of my guildies all precursors, 0.2% drop chance I’m sure….

If you have better numbers I would love to use them, please provide a source though. All the numbers I took were from reputable sites or from Anet themselves. As I said before I took a very high estimate of the number added to the market (double the number actually on the market right now) in order to account for people who kept them or bought them right away.

First you guys are kittening that there are not too many precursors out there and now you are kittening there are too many… so much win !

I’d say it was at least 10%-20% drop rate (from how many got it in my guild), and some people ran it multiple times….so…yeah

Mind that TP went down right after this event, most of people didn’t even have enough time to put an offer for their precursor. Many are still keeping them and waiting for prices to raise again. And some people just want to keep them, for one of their characters

The TP is not in any way a good way to measure precursor numbers..for a good number of reasons, like listing costs and those holding onto them waiting for prices to go back up.

Zakar.4518:

Your numbers are way off. You just guessed “6” for some random reason, when the number is probably 100+. Several of my guildies stockpiled multiple dusk/dawns because the price spiked down to under 150g within minutes with quite a few others buying their precursor for crafting purposes. Our guild has less than 100 members. I can promise you tons of other people across all servers were doing the same.

I’m not saying it was free precursors for all, but the percentage is certainly over 10x what you speculate, probably way over.

“Several” of your guildies happened to have 400+ g sitting around to buy “multiple” dusks? 6 was a random number to round it out, the actual number I used for the average (35) was assuming 70% of people either bought or kept their precursor. I can adjust this number higher to say an additional 100% of people didn’t sell them which would bring the average up to 40 and give us ~0.3%

But I think it is safer to assume that most people could still not afford the precursors even with the price drop. If people had 100+g just sitting around precursors never would have been such a complaint to begin with.

Anyone knows some news about the so called " scaviging hunt" for precursers already?

In my guild, about a dozen of us completed the event. Most of us did so twice, on alts. I managed three runs. Nobody got a precursor. When I see claims like “half my guildies got one,” I am fairly confidant that is not true.

The vast majority of participants got the following:

- Two completely random exotics (level 62 – 80, depending on your character’s level)
- A level 80 exotic accessory
- A twenty slot box
- Two random yellows

That is very generous, but there’s nothing on that list you cannot grind out in normal play. There’s no reason for rage.*

*unless you were doing the event when the game went down for routine maintenance. That’s a colossal blunder on ANet’s part.

I didn’t get to do the last event because I had to work (I know a LOT of people in various overflow servers were in the same boat), and timezones are a bugger when you live half way around the world from the nearest server. I can’t tell you how many times I got disconnected from the game during the 2nd phase of the event (Sunday morning our time) so I only got to stay on maybe 10 minutes at a time thanks to being kicked with monotonous regularity.

Can anyone tell me if the event is still going and if this chest is still there at the end? I got all the magic find gear in the world but I don’t seem to have the luck to land my precursor weapon.

Oghier.7419:

In my guild, about a dozen of us completed the event. Most of us did so twice, on alts. I managed three runs. Nobody got a precursor. When I see claims like “half my guildies got one,” I am fairly confidant that is not true.

The vast majority of participants got the following:

- Two completely random exotics (level 62 – 80, depending on your character’s level)
- A level 80 exotic accessory
- A twenty slot box
- Two random yellows

That is very generous, but there’s nothing on that list you cannot grind out in normal play. There’s no reason for rage.*

*unless you were doing the event when the game went down for routine maintenance. That’s a colossal blunder on ANet’s part.

That’s exactly what I got, and what most of my guild did as well. One girl got Leaf of Kudzu, the rest of us pretty much what you described. It made her day and is rerolling a ranger so she can actually use it, good for her

i think most people are whining because there was a “chance” to get a precursior without having to spend an insane amount of money…

if it had been just exotic i dont think it would have mattered so much…

my 2 cents

ZudetGambeous.9573 you theory looks solid but why you assume that all players that drops precursors set it on Trading Post ? I think and I saw some of chat messages that some players save this for “better time” or for yourself. And some players don’t want to sell it even if precursor that they got is not for then – they want to exchange it for another precursors (I saw few messages in LA main chat on my server).

Trading Post is globally and after event in LA a saw around 10-15 messages with precursors.

I didn’t get precursor from chest (got 2 random exotic that i sold by 2g both) and I don’t complaining. After event I was a little bit frustrated but now after several hours I really don’t care about it.

This is random, this is life.

Cheers

That’s the thing, only a minority of the people who got precursors actually put it for sale on the TP

I don’t care so much about the precursors, the 20 slots bag was already a good reward

ZudetGambeous.9573:

People seem to think that precursors were being handed out to everyone at this event like candy corn. I’m here to kill that nasty rumor once and for all.

Anet said their highest concurrency is on Sunday at 12 PST (event time). They also said they had over 300,000 players on at their peak concurrency. So if we assume about 300,000 players got to participate in the event throughout the day (lower concurrency then their peak, say only 200,000 but the event ran repeatedly throughout the day allowing more people to participate, was still starting on some overflows as late as 9:00 PM PST) we can figure out the relative drop rate.

According to GW2Spidy: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185
The amount of dusks available for sale jumped from about 10 to 24 due to the event. Lets say that an additional 6 people bought dusk since it dropped in price giving us about 30 supply, which is 20 added to the market due to the event.
We can look at other precursors (Zap: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185) and see a similar trend, 10 to 40 in zap’s case. So overall we get an average of about 35 (high estimate, most only added about 20) precursors of each type were added into the market. There are 20 different precursors (only 10 of which are actually worth any money but we won’t worry about that here)

so 20*35 = 700 total precursor drops (within an order of magnitude)

700/300,000*100% = ~0.2% drop chance

which is about the same chance you have from the MF

So no, you did not miss a free precursor candy handout. Only a very small number of players got one, you just heard about it a lot because they were all concentrated in one area at one time with lots of people around that heard what happened.

So according to your calculation, everyone will immediately sell their precursor and barely, anyone will buy a precursor. How about:

1. Awesome nice i got a precursor i needed for my legendary, i am going to keep it.

2. Hell yeah i got a precursor, monies monies but i do not need it right now. And will not know if i am going to craft a legendary later. Let me keep it. Anyway the price of the precursor is way too low to be sold (when compare to the highest price before) so let me keep it. Maybe in the near future i can sell it for way higher when supply of precursor decrease.

3. Super rich guy sees dusk dawn going down in price. Let me buy those since i wanna control this part of the market. That’s not counting other people buying them since they are going down in price.

I enjoyed participating in the event, got two exotics that I could use for my main and an alt and of course the accessory and the 20 slot bag. I was pretty happy to get these.

I belong to a tiny guild, only three of us were on and none of us got or heard that anyone else had received precursors, so this is all a surprise to me. I would have loved to have gotten one, but I know very well how RNG works, so I’m ok with not having been one of the lucky ones.

I think it’s a terrible idea to take these rewards back. I hope that’s a notion that isn’t even considered.

NOBODY in my guild got a precursor and I only saw 1 person in my overflow link one in chat after looting the chest. He got Dusk.

Your math is useless. Use common sense.
Smart people keep their precursors and wait till they’re back to normal price.
Some keep it and use it.
Some buy random precursors at low price to make profit later on.

Yay good job.

As stated before the numbers are mainly off because you forgot the ppl that Keep theirs for own use (of later selling). So impossible to say numbers.

I’ve no clue how many or how few dropped.. all i can say is that the event was run by around 20 guildies and we had: Trident/Gun/Bow(or dagger..can’t remember)/Dawn dropped in the guild. Could be we’re reallly lucky but those are true numbers.

Ohhhh i had random Exotic drop from one of the dead mobs, not worth much unfortunately.

I just feel sorry NOT for the ppl that didn’t get a good drop..all ppl had similar chances that did join. I DO feel sorry for those that had to go to bed due to SUCK!!! timing of this event (for EU players at least)..and for those (also had 2 in guild) that got kicked on endphase bossfight and didn’t get to loot the chest!! For those 2 type of players i DO feel sorry!!

Why care at all? Be happy that the prices go down, it’s not like having the precursor will get you a Legendary. There will be more precursors anyway when ANet ist done with the new way to get them.

Gw2spidy can’t really be used as a source because they don’t pull their numbers every second, or even minute. I believe it’s every hour. Even close to the even t’s plug being pulled you could basically tell when an overflow finished, as multiple of every precursor were posted and purchased, and many dropped by significant amounts as the undercutters warred while the exceptionally rich snapped them up.

It was a solid idea to try to debunk the relatively high percentages being reported, sadly spidy can’t be used as an infallible source in this scenario due to the windows in which it captures its information.

Not only do lots of people keep that kind of thing you didn’t account for the trial accounts that got them and didn’t know what they were or how valuable and thus didn’t do anything with them before the plug got pulled on the accounts.

This math is so bad. You cannot use the amount of sell items on the TP as many people are going to keep theirs to use or keep them waiting for the prices to rise. You also have NO idea how many people opened the chest. You cant even estimate it. My overflow started full, by the time we finished half had already left due to the time requirement and lack of enjoyment or any other reason. You also dont know how many people started the event to begin with or how many logged in that day.

The chest DID have higher precursor drop rate than other chests because it gave out only exotics (similar to forge but FREE of charge). So please, take your bad math and bad projections elsewhere.

most people who has brains and got a percursor didnt put to sell on the spot, they will wait untill the price rise again 0o … so, your math its probably very wrong (i was doing the event in a group of 5, my group got 3 percursors, none was put to sell in TP)

Yheazi.8034:

How can you explain then that several guildies got a precursor (the short bow mostly) on that particular event ? Dozens of people participate in my guilds not hundreds or thousands.

He just did a breakdown on Dusk, not the other 19. Depending on the price as to which another precursors goes for up in auction. You may or may not get different numbers. You said it yourself, “several guldies got the short bow.” If one got Dusk, then that guildie was one of the lucky 0.2% of people.

People are upset because they missed out on 20 slot bags and such, in addition to a chance to obtain a precursor

You’re clearly not very understanding OP

ZudetGambeous.9573:

People seem to think that precursors were being handed out to everyone at this event like candy corn. I’m here to kill that nasty rumor once and for all.

Anet said their highest concurrency is on Sunday at 12 PST (event time). They also said they had over 300,000 players on at their peak concurrency. So if we assume about 300,000 players got to participate in the event throughout the day (lower concurrency then their peak, say only 200,000 but the event ran repeatedly throughout the day allowing more people to participate, was still starting on some overflows as late as 9:00 PM PST) we can figure out the relative drop rate.

According to GW2Spidy: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185
The amount of dusks available for sale jumped from about 10 to 24 due to the event. Lets say that an additional 6 people bought dusk since it dropped in price giving us about 30 supply, which is 20 added to the market due to the event.
We can look at other precursors (Zap: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185) and see a similar trend, 10 to 40 in zap’s case. So overall we get an average of about 35 (high estimate, most only added about 20) precursors of each type were added into the market. There are 20 different precursors (only 10 of which are actually worth any money but we won’t worry about that here)

so 20*35 = 700 total precursor drops (within an order of magnitude)

700/300,000*100% = ~0.2% drop chance

which is about the same chance you have from the MF

So no, you did not miss a free precursor candy handout. Only a very small number of players got one, you just heard about it a lot because they were all concentrated in one area at one time with lots of people around that heard what happened.

Ok
1) yes as i said it Was more like a 40-50% drop rate
2) no, when i said that in the other thread it was not just sour grapes, I myself got and sold a Dusk from the event

im sorry but your fan sites information is inaccurate, in our guild id estimate that almost 50% of people who participated (myself included) got precursors from a single or first chest.

It was a very strange choice by the devs. The drop rate was clearly vastly jacked up. My particular instance had several people linking precusor drops from the chest, as did everyone else’s I know. It was probably more like a 10-20% drop rate at least.

Given that, it just seems odd. If they were going to make a concerted effort to put more precursors into the game, why not just raise the drop rates temporarily from all sources. Giving a few people a winning lottery ticket from the one-time event seems totally arbitrary. I am one of the people who didn’t get a precusor from the chest and while I don’t feel hard done by I do wonder about the justification for why a lot of my friends got one and I didn’t. I wouldn’t feel the same way if the overall drop rate had been boosted.

I would say the drop chance was somewhere between 10-20%. One of my guildmates got two precursors. At least 10 dropped per event based on individuals linking them in chat.

I would say people have no clue of stochastics and just make up numbers. Also, many are just trolling. ANet are the only ones who know the truth.

Sinnyil.3648:

Gw2spidy can’t really be used as a source because they don’t pull their numbers every second, or even minute. I believe it’s every hour. Even close to the even t’s plug being pulled you could basically tell when an overflow finished, as multiple of every precursor were posted and purchased, and many dropped by significant amounts as the undercutters warred while the exceptionally rich snapped them up.

It was a solid idea to try to debunk the relatively high percentages being reported, sadly spidy can’t be used as an infallible source in this scenario due to the windows in which it captures its information.

If you know of any site that pulls data more frequently or another method of determining total volume sales, I’d love to see it. I am quite interested in the actual amount that dropped.

For my data I assumed that about 50% of people sold and 50% held on to their precursors for a later time. I think people vastly overestimate the common sense of people who play MMO’s. I have seen absolutely no indication in over 10 years of playing MMO’s that the vast majority of people who got a rare drop would have the market sense to “hold onto it for future profits”. Also the only people likely to keep their precursors are the ones who got the one that they wanted, everyone else would most likely sell theirs and buy the one they wanted, which if I had access to a more real time market site I would be able to better account for.

Plus I never claimed this was a super accurate calculation. In fact I specifically said that this was an order of magnitude calculation. If anyone has any suggestions that aren’t based purely on hearsay on corrections to my orders of magnitude I would greatly appreciated hearing them.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Yheazi.8034:

How can you explain then that several guildies got a precursor (the short bow mostly) on that particular event ? Dozens of people participate in my guilds not hundreds or thousands.

because several dozen (36?) out of 300,000 isn’t a large enough sample size to say anything. You are in a lucky guild. My guild of 300 only had 1 person get a precursor.

I almost doubled the amount of precursors actually added to the market to account for people using them for themselves and people who bought them before gw2spidy could take another data point. If you have more accurate numbers and a source for them I would be happy to do the numbers again, but based on what data I could find that is the drop rate.

The same answer could be applied to your guild then. You just had a very unlucky guild and out of 300k you popped out of the rabbits hat that’s not really much people. This make your own calculations flawed since fansites never really give me a legit feeling. Basing this on the Trading Post most likely will not work since allot will just put it in their stash and wait for the price to go back up or trade it with friends.

You didnt count poeple who actually kept their precursors
Instead of running and monopolizing or trying to get rich

Go back to school kid everyone knows your math is fail – move along nothing to see here

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Sinnyil.3648:

Gw2spidy can’t really be used as a source because they don’t pull their numbers every second, or even minute. I believe it’s every hour. Even close to the even t’s plug being pulled you could basically tell when an overflow finished, as multiple of every precursor were posted and purchased, and many dropped by significant amounts as the undercutters warred while the exceptionally rich snapped them up.

It was a solid idea to try to debunk the relatively high percentages being reported, sadly spidy can’t be used as an infallible source in this scenario due to the windows in which it captures its information.

If you know of any site that pulls data more frequently or another method of determining total volume sales, I’d love to see it. I am quite interested in the actual amount that dropped.

For my data I assumed that about 50% of people sold and 50% held on to their precursors for a later time. I think people vastly overestimate the common sense of people who play MMO’s. I have seen absolutely no indication in over 10 years of playing MMO’s that the vast majority of people who got a rare drop would have the market sense to “hold onto it for future profits”. Also the only people likely to keep their precursors are the ones who got the one that they wanted, everyone else would most likely sell theirs and buy the one they wanted, which if I had access to a more real time market site I would be able to better account for.

Plus I never claimed this was a super accurate calculation. In fact I specifically said that this was an order of magnitude calculation. If anyone has any suggestions that aren’t based purely on hearsay on corrections to my orders of magnitude I would greatly appreciated hearing them.

None that I know of pull them any more frequently. You can set up your own (somehow, don’t ask me!) but it’s too late for that.

We’ve had people on these very forums admitting to buying multiple dusks/dawns/etc yesterday just to take advantage of the market supply shock. Sadly, I don’t think anyone besides arenanet or some who just happened to have a personal API with tracking running at the time would be able to give us a glimpse into the full impact on the market.

I did manage to snag a zap pretty cheap though!

Master Probability, whats the rate of getting two exactly same items, like what I got(kittening two leather pants with same stats)?

Should I just go buy lottery?

No one in my guild got a precursor and no one on our overflow wrote about it in map chat, although many posted their exotic loot for others to compare.

Maybe the guilds that have multiple precursors used a ton of MF and are hardcore players. Maybe they used 6 alts to get more chances at it.
Everyone who didn’t get one didn’t make a thread about it. You hear more about the ones who did, so it seems like they’re the majority. No need for jealousy, you’re in the majority who didn’t get one.

You’re making too many assumptions for your calculations to be considered accurate.

the RNG was a terrible idea for anything especially events like this.

Also could we have Anet follow their original masterfulness and come up with the first code that actually gives drops based off of level and profession? something that no other developer has ever done to my knowledge.

getting 39,62,50,76 rares at level 80 from such a large event is insulting.

Clark Skinner.4902:

No one in my guild got a precursor and no one on our overflow wrote about it in map chat, although many posted their exotic loot for others to compare.

Maybe the guilds that have multiple precursors used a ton of MF and are hardcore players. Maybe they used 6 alts to get more chances at it.
Everyone who didn’t get one didn’t make a thread about it. You hear more about the ones who did, so it seems like they’re the majority. No need for jealousy, you’re in the majority who didn’t get one.

MF is useless and should be removed. It apparently does nothing for chests.

Most of my guildies did the event and got rares most of which were far far below their level.

Without the math in-game we all assumed it was 1-15% so thank you for providing this! Glad someone else is fending off the haters!

Leo.6817:

Pulling random numbers out of the air must be fun, even more fun to base all your information on a fan-site giving an average report, but well we all knew this fanboy thread would be made eventually.

Oh and same as above, 4 of my friends and 13 of my guildies all precursors, 0.2% drop chance I’m sure….

Wait this coming from mister “40%” to “25%”?