Guild Wars 2

I’ve attached two screenshots. The second one was taken a few minutes ago, and the first approximately 22 hours after the patch went live. At the time of this post it’s been about 102 hours since the patch went live. [Also, a note: I guested to another World to check on the bar there and it was identical, so I am fairly certain it’s a universal meter.]

At the 22-hour mark, the bar was at 3%. You can calculate this yourself via pixels. At a constant rate the bar would be filled in about 733 hours.

At the 102-hour mark, the bar is at about 16%. 102 hours is 14% of 733.

Somewhat surprisingly, the bar has sped up slightly. If the players are indeed having an impact on the injections, this can be explained by the fact that it’s Saturday and there is higher weekend activity.

Thus evidence currently suggests that the bar is actually taking player input. It would be a good idea to keep an eye on it over the coming weeks to see how it progresses.

This is speculation on my part but chances are player action is a factor but it is very likely that there is some per-determined side to it as well.

Why? Because they don’t want the meter to fill too quickly otherwise there would be an unpredictable amount of time between when the meter fills and when the continuation of this story thread is scheduled to go live. Of course it is possible that some of it is already pre-developed for this patch so that something is ready to happen the moment it fills up, but depending on what they plan to do in the future it would be extremely bad for pacing if they could not predict when that meter fills (considering all the feedback they are getting for LS pacing in general, I doubt they would gamble on the meter filling too fast).

Just seems like a logistical nightmare if it was 100% up to players, if each patch needs a couple of months development time then that means they have to make sure whoever is responsible for the immediate aftermath of this has either already finished or is close to being finished with that piece of content (or that they have means to artificially slow the progress down if that is not the case).

No. Just % per day until end of event.

ezd.6359:

No. Just % per day until end of event.

You didn’t actually read the first post, did you? Because it pretty much proves that at the very least it is not a flat daily rate (which you imply).

It would not be difficult to make the bar fill automatically in a smart way, based on past player activity data they have to give the illusion of player input. But then without giving them the benefit of the doubt this discussion is pointless.

We sort of know that the next patch will in all likelihood have nothing to do with the tower (the fractal speculation is rampant), same is true for the one after that most likely (Wintersday). So if it is not infact player input at all then the tower should remain unchanged until the second patch in December (assuming there is one, because the current release dates would date that one on the 24th) or change as soon as the next patch… if our speculation about fractals turns out to be false.

So if players are not even a factor the meter should fill either in the next two weeks or by end of December. Because if players have no say in it whatsoever I find it unlikely that ANet would willingly allow three different simultaneous LS patches to be ongoing because that splits the playerbase up toon thin.

Interestingly enough the way this content is designed doesn’t actually entirely encourage repeating the end instance (ie. actually injecting the antitoxin). Because after you have done your meta and hybrid related achievements in particular the only reason to climb the tower would be the tri-key chest and champions.

So even if people keep doing the tower content only fraction of them will repeat the hybrid instance beyond a certain point. So the content is not set up in a way that would allow the bar to fill the fastest (which could be calculated thing on their part to prevent the meter from filling too fast if it really is 100% genuine).

I don’t think its player input at all…

Its just probably a timer, far, far simpler to do and how can anyone other than this particular story team developers know?

I think if arena did not say anything, this meter should not mean anything important. Just fun thing. Also, it is not neccessary it shows exact progress (3.5%/day), it may be round-up or every even number. In first day it is 3.5% – it shows 2%, 2nd day it is 7% – it shows 6% etc. 5 days from last update ~17.5%, now it is filled 34px/200px – ~17%.

No, if it was based on player input it would have filled quite significantly during the first few days, slowed down and by the second week stopped moving altogether.

Dash.7108:

In my opinion its player input as of right now, but I’m sure anet has a date they want it gone by and will probably fudge it a bit towards the end if everyone stops doing it.

Agreed, they definitely wouldn’t leave it 100% up to player input but that’s just naturally expected.

Meglobob.8620:

I don’t think its player input at all…

Its just probably a timer, far, far simpler to do and how can anyone other than this particular story team developers know?

A timer that changes its rate based on player activity in the game is simpler than a counter that increments by 1 every time someone completes the instance?

Most likely rigged to some degree. Considering how little it went up in the first few days and the fact that players will soon/are already be bored of the tower, if it weren’t rigged, it’d probably be there forever.

The hybrid instance is a great way to finish dailies and not that difficult. Perhaps people will continue to do it.

It’s a timer of some sort, realistically if it were player input it would have exploded after it went live and then slowed down after couple days.

Protoavis.9107:

It’s a timer of some sort, realistically if it were player input it would have exploded after it went live and then slowed down after couple days.

I think you underestimate the number of players who show up exclusively on the weekends.

What I suppose would happen is the same thing we experienced before this patch
with the trees in Kessex Hills getting cut down.
So my guess is that when the bar reaches 100% at a point in time, hints will be given as to what is to be expected next.
In theory the bar would need to reach 100% a bit before the next patch is due so that there is a build up of speculation for it to be effective.

It is pre-determined. The disintegration of the Lion’s Arch statue last year before Mad King Thorn blasted through it was based on a timer as well, but it required no input from anyone playing the game. That meter was more an energy reading which had a preset incrementation per day. And how very typical, I have screenshots of just about everything else from that time last year, but not of the meter.

That said, however, this has the hallmarks of doing the same thing, ie. increasing incrementally based on little to no user input at all. It wouldn’t surprise me if they copy-pasted the timer/meter from one event to another, and just had it renamed.

I believe it to be a timer, not a counter. We’ll see how it goes…

Taken straight from the patch notes:

The Antitoxin Injected indicator is a representation of the amount of antitoxin that has been pumped into the heart of the tower by the heroes of Tyria and will update periodically.

Zetsuei.8942:

Taken straight from the patch notes:

The Antitoxin Injected indicator is a representation of the amount of antitoxin that has been pumped into the heart of the tower by the heroes of Tyria and will update periodically.

It certainly is a representation, but that says nothing about linearity. :P

Pixelpumpkin.4608:

Zetsuei.8942:

Taken straight from the patch notes:

The Antitoxin Injected indicator is a representation of the amount of antitoxin that has been pumped into the heart of the tower by the heroes of Tyria and will update periodically.

It certainly is a representation, but that says nothing about linearity. :P

Or if those heroes are live people or NPCs.

Rhialto.8423:

Pixelpumpkin.4608:

Zetsuei.8942:

Taken straight from the patch notes:

The Antitoxin Injected indicator is a representation of the amount of antitoxin that has been pumped into the heart of the tower by the heroes of Tyria and will update periodically.

It certainly is a representation, but that says nothing about linearity. :P

Or if those heroes are live people or NPCs.

Or if it’s ANet doing the pumping by remote control. ANet can consider itself a hero of Tyria.

They have to consider the possibility that people might stop doing the antitoxin pumping or not do it enough so the timer maxes before the next patch.

There’s probably just an Anet employee that comes in every morning and think “hmmm, what shall I set it to today? It was 20% yesterday… 25%? Nah, 26.8% to make people think its based on their actual input, muahahahahaaaaa!!!”. He probably have a Scarlet wig on his head while doing it.

It’ll probably be player input for awhile, but as time goes on the amount of bar per injection will change. (For example, if one injection is 0.01% now, it could be 0.02% later, or 0.005% depending on how fast we fill it up. I think they want to release the next patch on schedule.)

The sad thing is that I honestly believe that ANet has enough player data to make a very accurate prediction / create an algorithm that will ensure that the bar is full around a specific date, without manipulating numbers.

However, that would have required the boss instance to be attractive beyond the 4 runs you do for story completion, one-time reward and achievements (maybe 5 if you managed to miss the back door). There’s not currently a reward (or even chance of a reward) that I think makes people feel like they should run it at least once a day, like they were with the SAB or even the Bloody Prince instance.

Boggles my mind why the Hybrid instance doesn’t drop 1 guaranteed key a day.

Valandil Dragonhart.2371:

It is pre-determined. The disintegration of the Lion’s Arch statue last year before Mad King Thorn blasted through it was based on a timer as well, but it required no input from anyone playing the game.

That said, however, this has the hallmarks of doing the same thing, ie. increasing incrementally based on little to no user input at all. It wouldn’t surprise me if they copy-pasted the timer/meter from one event to another, and just had it renamed.

Shadow of the Mad King occurred before the Living Story was properly fleshed out. As it stands, the Living Story has a timer built in. So, unlike the SotMK, there’s absolutely no reason to pretend it’s player input (which the SotMK didn’t do, mind you, it was just a timer).

Astral Projections.7320:

They have to consider the possibility that people might stop doing the antitoxin pumping or not do it enough so the timer maxes before the next patch.

Morsus.5106:

It’ll probably be player input for awhile, but as time goes on the amount of bar per injection will change. (For example, if one injection is 0.01% now, it could be 0.02% later, or 0.005% depending on how fast we fill it up. I think they want to release the next patch on schedule.)

The next patch is due to be Fractals. I think ArenaNet has prepared for The Nightmare Within taking a long time to be removed. Why is everybody under the impression that there is some guarantee on the time limit of Living Story events?

Plus, Scarlet is done with the Nightmare Tower, so whatever she does next doesn’t even need to revolve around it being fully destroyed yet. She can pop up somewhere else in the world with her progress from experimenting on the krait and the Tower can still not be destroyed at the same time.

Is the timer the same across the servers? That should give a decent idea as to which path Anet chose.

25% after 1 week matchs the 4 weeks for living stories. so probly is time based.

IT’s a timer. It’s at the same spot in every overflow I have been in. If it was actual player input then it would be at different levels in every overflow.

After I got all the achievements (2nd day of event), I never stepped foot in the final chamber again. I climb once a day for the chest. I would think I’m not in the minority here.

Answer? No. If you remember it is just timed to the end of the release like the “Flame and Frost” final chapter was.

Daroon.1736:

No, if it was based on player input it would have filled quite significantly during the first few days, slowed down and by the second week stopped moving altogether.

Exactly. All that shall be said on the matter…

Indeed it is so…

Cyvil.1605:

Is the timer the same across the servers? That should give a decent idea as to which path Anet chose.

It’s the same across all servers

This does not prove anything either way, of course, because it could be a UNIVERSAL counter. Or a universal timer.

To stop the “fill it asap” problem and having it end “early” they could put a per day cap so player input can only do so much per day.

Now take a few things in to consideration:
- The current state of the progress bar
- The current preview picture of the next update with it’s speculation of it being the Fractals update
- They’ve done indirect updates on the LS schedule that aren’t exactly Scarlet LS related (think Tequatl)
And we get that it seems to be a preset timer set for four weeks so that it covers the two week “break” for Fractals and they can pick up right after.

They keep track of data like mobs killed, items looted, instances done, etc, so the bar could easily be real. How much antitoxin is required is probably based on the active population and participation during the previous living story. It could also be designed to fail or simply last forever until destroyed. They already influence how many people do the instance by having dailies for it and if needed, can further influence it by simply increasing the rewards or making it easier to get to.

As for the bar being the same on other servers, of course it’s the same. When creating a living world, every server has to be based on the same world or else there’s going to be odd moments when guesting or entering overflows.

Healix.5819:

It could also be designed to fail or simply last forever until destroyed.

No failing yet – the Tower will simply last forever if the players take too long. It’s obviously a trial of this sort of counter-bar so that they can use it in subsequent story events which will contain fail states or possibly multiple choices for the players to make & progress.

This all depends on whether the tower disappears at the end of this event; Tuesday in a week, or whether it actually stays until the players destroy it … so to speak, it will fall naturally when done enough times by players.
At least it’s not a daily linear percentage increase because we’re halfway through a 2-week patch and the bar is hardly at a quarter – so unless this is irrelevant to player input and a 4-week event all of a sudden? Which would seem odd because I cannot see how many players will want to go back there after the initial 2 weeks… in fact, if it relies on players injecting antitoxin, I’m not even sure all worlds will destroy the tower.

It would be interesting to see how far that bar has come if you compared a few worlds? I.e. is the tower gonna fall globally, or per server?

Dondarrion.2748:

It would be interesting to see how far that bar has come if you compared a few worlds? I.e. is the tower gonna fall globally, or per server?

I checked when I made this post originally – you will note I found that the bars are identical on Henge of Denravi and Tarnished Coast, so it is almost certainly a global meter.

Also, an update for everybody: at 162 hours, the bar is at 22%. The rate of the bar has once again changed. In fact, the rate of the bar now matches the original rate (3% for 22 hours).

This coincides with the weekend being over. Perhaps fewer players playing?

I won’t say It is not based on players, but if it was solely based on players it would have stopped moving long time ago since people did achievements in few days and stopped doing it.

Apart from occasional forced daily to kill the hybrid/ use antitoxin, players are not doing the content at all.

Its just some “meter” that represents nothing, well nothing more than time until next patch.

At this speed the plant will survive three more weeks. The death could take place on start of Wintersday.

Lighthammer.3280:

I won’t say It is not based on players, but if it was solely based on players it would have stopped moving long time ago since people did achievements in few days and stopped doing it.

Apart from occasional forced daily to kill the hybrid/ use antitoxin, players are not doing the content at all.

Its just some “meter” that represents nothing, well nothing more than time until next patch.

Uh, source? Any at all?

Because the Tower still has players in it.

“I stopped playing the Tower” does not mean “Everybody stopped playing the Tower”. Why does everybody in this thread seem to think it does?

Seeing the progress on each server would answer this question. Someone do some guesting and take photos! If they are all identical then it is not player-based. If they vary then we can assume it is tied to player completion.

I don’t see any reason they’d make it actually track player input. They could, but it wouldn’t make sense to do so.

They plan Living Story releases months in advance, which means their release schedule has to be set months in advance too. They can’t have an entire team of people hanging around waiting to see when players feel like doing the boss enough times that they can release their content. Especially because if it took much longer than predicted it’d mean either cutting the next release short or throwing the whole schedule out.

And like other people said if it did track player activity it’d be a lot more erratic, like the gems/gold conversion rate. It would have jumped up massively in the first few days, slowed down a bit on the Thursday, jumped again over the weekend and then dropped off steadily with occasional spikes since then.

If anyone’s really not sure they could take screen shots of the bar at the same time every day for several days. (Which I’m tempted to do myself except I’m not going to be here to do it.)

I did the Hybrid 5 times last night. Throughout the 3 hours I played, there were people looking for a group to do it. There was never a lack of willing help. The groups would form up pretty quickly usually 4-5 people too.

As far as the meter being the same across servers, makes total sense. They aren’t going to leave it up for some servers and not others. It can easily be player based across all servers. Just because they are the same doesn’t mean it has to be a timer. I don’t remember where but I got the impression it was player based.

As the bar goes up faster when there’s an injection daily, you could say that at least in part players are affecting that bar.

Draknar.5748:

Seeing the progress on each server would answer this question. Someone do some guesting and take photos! If they are all identical then it is not player-based. If they vary then we can assume it is tied to player completion.

This makes no sense at all.

I’m not saying that the meter is or isn’t player driven, but to say that if each server isn’t different then it’s a timer is ridiculous.

Due to the nature of how the overflow system works the meter is global, as in all servers (including the overflow servers), combined. To think that Anet could coordinate a global Trading Post but not a simple single variable meter is nonsense.

Danikat.8537:

I don’t see any reason they’d make it actually track player input. They could, but it wouldn’t make sense to do so.

They plan Living Story releases months in advance, which means their release schedule has to be set months in advance too. They can’t have an entire team of people hanging around waiting to see when players feel like doing the boss enough times that they can release their content. Especially because if it took much longer than predicted it’d mean either cutting the next release short or throwing the whole schedule out.

And like other people said if it did track player activity it’d be a lot more erratic, like the gems/gold conversion rate. It would have jumped up massively in the first few days, slowed down a bit on the Thursday, jumped again over the weekend and then dropped off steadily with occasional spikes since then.

If anyone’s really not sure they could take screen shots of the bar at the same time every day for several days. (Which I’m tempted to do myself except I’m not going to be here to do it.)

The Tower content is ongoing alongside the Fractals update, according to the preview page.

As such, I see no reason they couldn’t keep the Tower content going for as long as it takes to destroy it, regardless of new content being introduced. They can still go on with their planned schedule for adding new stuff, and just keep the Tower in as long as it takes alongside new stuff.

I’m not sure on the other points either. People certainly rushed to the Tower on day 1, but that doesn’t mean everyone was injecting right away. People could have still been going through the tower (many people have trouble making it through) or were working on other achievements at the time. It could be a mostly steady stream of people reaching the top, injecting the tower, that’s keeping the rate mostly the same. Day 1, the hardcore reach the top and inject. Couple days after, you start getting more casual players injecting. The weekend sees a spike because there are plenty of people who only play or mostly play on the weekend. And even now there are probably still casuals reaching the top for the first time, not to mention the injection daily bringing back some of the others.

Its only been a little over a week at this point. No doubt the rate will drop off eventually if its truly player-driven, but it might be too soon to see that just yet.

It looks like the tower is going to be around for another 3 weeks, witch puts it in line with the dec 6th update.

I’d say 2 weeks from next tuesday or 3 weeks from this last tuesday(yesterday). Or maybe 1 week more. (From looking at that bar – seems like about 25 percent full after 1 week → so whole bar would take 4-5 weeks).

“The Antitoxin Injected indicator is a representation of the amount of antitoxin that has been pumped into the heart of the tower by the heroes of Tyria and will update periodically.”

I hope this is actually the case and the continued existence of this ugly, festering albatross is entirely dependent upon lack of actual player input. If completion is in fact not artificially manipulated by ANet, then it starts looking a lot like an in-game public opinion poll:

• All in favor: complete the content.
• All opposed: don’t complete the content.

They’ve got to be closely monitoring the metrics on this thing (because if the “voting” aspect is legit it will impact their release schedule), so they know full well what percentage of the player base has actually done the content, how many repeat runners there are, number of players, how many just run an alt to the top and park there, number of deaths/downs, peak times etc.

Once the Zerg swarms have completely lost interest and moved on (which has pretty much already happened), they’ll know it. If the antitoxin target levels are never reached due to player indifference, they’ll know that too. Then it can just remain, indefinitely looming over Kessex, as a monument to how NOT to structure your game’s content.

I don’t know about other servers, but on Sorrow’s Furnace it’s a little under half full. The bar seems to be moving at a crawl, even in the first few days of the release. On SE the tower is usually only got one or two smaller groups with no commanders in it. I imagine the bar is either actually a timer to the next part of the story, where it’ll fill in time for Scarlet’s next appearance, or it’s universal among all servers and few people are doing the tower so it’s moving really slow (or maybe the bar is just that big).

Honestly, I think the timer is the most likely possibility here.

EDIT: After reviewing the Fractured Release Page, I think the bar will fill when Fractured is over. Since they advertise specifically that Nightmares will continue through it. If its progress is player based they wouldn’t advertise the continuation of the event because it could go on for several releases (several releases that would pull players away from the tower and further drag it out). So yeah, I’m certain it’s actually just on a timer.