I will not make assumptions that GW2 player population is dying, as I don’t have any information to back it up. What I can say is that in my own opinion, the design decision to split players into worlds is a huge problem that doesn’t work well with how GW2 is designed in the first place with the instanced/separated nature of dungeons, pvp, and world vs world.
Problem 1 – Short term density problems: too many servers, too little purpose for the open world
In NA there are a whopping 24 servers. There are 24 open world maps. Based on the assumption that 500 people (an old WvW figure from BWE1-3) can be available on a map that’s 24*24*500 = 288K players. In reality, we see 15-20 people scattered in each open world map, maybe 40-50 if it has a dragon event going on. The open world is really only ever used for leveling and map completion – as people reach the end game, the maps will rarely be revisited. The rest of the player base are all running dungeons, personal instances, WvW or sPvP, none of which matter because they are cross server already.
Problem 2 – Long term density problems
In the long term, no doubt ANet will be releasing new maps – Crystal Desert, Ring of Fire, Isle of Janthir, Woodland Cascades to name a few to be anticipated in the near future. We saw what happened with Southsun Cove though – huge influx of players in the new map, after players have done all the content and the event was over, poof, now empty… The new maps will either replicate this, or make it true for the existing maps (Orr).
Problem #3 – Servers only serve World vs World
The 24 NA servers fulfill two things; the feeling of belongingness (that people don’t care about for PvE, as proven in problem #2), and the separation of players for the purpose of WvW (where people do care about that feeling of belongingness).
Problem 2 – Guesting
Guesting has proved something of a savior to GW2, other than to gate WvW transfers; we are slowly seeing communities picking and joining the “unofficial PvE” server (Tarnished Coast). It raises the question why we need Guesting in the first place, if people all just want to get together in the same map.
I’m sure there are more problems this has caused but those 4 are what I feel the biggest issues. Nevertheless, the split servers have served its purpose, and I think it’s time to merge all the servers. For launch it probably was very important to split the players so as to not cause lag, except that GW2 has the overflow system, so I can only discern that this is a design decision to split the players solely for the purpose of belongingness and WvW.
I don’t think I’ve ever come across a person who has disliked overflows. Better than sitting in a queue. I personally also never felt any different in the “persistence” feeling achieved through my efforts be any greater while in the main server compared to the overflow. It’s just cycled content that will reoccur eventually and I’m not fooled.
The solution is a difficult feat. There’ll be code to sift through to untangle anything that ties World selection with PvE and WvW. But the eventual outcome that the servers merge into one, or two/three is there are capacity issues, will be much better for the PvE community.
I do forsee some minor issues, for example the map capacity will mean if there are 500 (estimated) players trying to fight a world boss, likely that 501th person and above will be kicked into overflows. Not a huge problem if the event reward is account bound for its duration, as then the overflows can synchronise with the main world when the world bosses appear in the overflows. ANet did this with the Karka event (with some minor flaws), so I don’t see it technically impossible.
Thoughts?
tldr;
Problem: too many servers, too many problems, 4 arguments to prove my point
Solution: Merge all the PvE servers back into one world, make use of overflow shards instead. World selection to only matter for WvW
Consequence: Guesting made redundant
<Did not speak for EU, as I assume the problem is slightly different due to language barriers>