Guild Wars 2

Am I the only one questioning the validity of Guild Wars 2’s economic models? This is my observation on how the pseudo-economy of Guild Wars 2 works. Please point out any inconsistency or add on to it if you see anything missing. Gold and gems are constantly created (farming, event rewards…etc.) and destroyed (via gold sinks and gem stores). The exchange rate reflects that and obviously shifted and designed in Anet’s favor. This pseudo-economy model is extremely vulnerable to bots as bots will create an enormous amount of gold in a short time inflating the gem prices as have been seen so far. The gem price has been rising endlessly and there’s absolutely no fluctuation (as promised by Anet) whatsoever to speak of.

The exchange rate between gold and gems need to be more fair. It can be slightly shifted in Anet’s favor but not so obvious that when I first looked at it, I laughed at the article published by the self-proclaimed economist working for Anet prior to the games release boasting of a realistic economic transactions. That guy seriously needs to be fired. Any 3 year olds can deduce that exchanging 2 apples for 3 oranges and then exchange 3 oranges for only 1 apple is not a fair exchange and definitely not anywhere remotely realistic.

Unless Anet finds a way to completely banish bots, even 1 bot left can wreak havoc on this vulnerable economy. Some people have suggested that maybe Anet should open the options to allow gems to be traded freely but this would not be in Anet’s best interest as it would decrease people’s desire to purchase gems from Anet directly via real money and also make the economy even more vulnerable than it already is.

I suggest that Anet should rethink the reward system. Rather than controlling the exchange rate, shift the control to gold creation instead. Find a way to reward players for meaningful play time at a constant rate with a limit. For example, limit a player’s potential to create say at most 10 silvers per hour of meaningful play time. The most difficult task will be defining meaningful play time so that a real player can be distinguished from a sophisticated bot who simply participates in every event it runs into, kill everything and harvest everything in its path (but then again, that’s pretty much what regular players do anyway).

Anet can also make the playing community into a self policing state to drive out bots by rewarding players who successfully identify bots and actively report them. I understand that there are no easy or perfect solution to this complex problem but Anet needs to take major and drastic steps ( I understand that Anet has been trying but I feel that is far short of expectation and definitely not enough) to address these issues so that this train wreak waiting to happen of an economy will stop spiraling toward its self-destruction. We’ve already seen 1 gold = 390 gems spiraling down to 1 gold = 110 gems in just 2 months with no end or relief in sight. This is seriously unfair, discouraging and damaging to honest players.

Gems, gold and bots is a similar thing that happens in Jade Dynasty. Some one predicted that from the start when they announced a free market not a controlled market that this thing will happen, Free market means inflation and controlled market means a tag of socio-comunism put on the producers. i’d rather get the tag than the game inflation.
As long as A-net will not put s top price on one gem (1gem=1silver) soon we will see the inflation boom up in everyone’s face. 1gem=1 gold results in 100gems =100 golds=cultural tier 3 armor can be bought for all 8 professions in your account with 10 USD ( 800 gens for 10 USD)
I cant wait for that to happen tho I can get 10 USD a LooooooooooT easier than +800 golds in the game.

Game economies should not try to mimic the real world economy because in the game everyone earns money.

Jelly Lee.7923:

This pseudo-economy model is extremely vulnerable to bots as bots will create an enormous amount of gold in a short time inflating the gem prices as have been seen so far. The gem price has been rising endlessly and there’s absolutely no fluctuation (as promised by Anet) whatsoever to speak of.

The game has been out for 2 months. I’m sure your tired of hearing this by now. But this game has hundreds of thousands of players. In a normal new economy there is a gradual increase up to the levelling of the economy as more people participate. Because of the game releasing to so many people at once, everything hits the market at the same time. So since there is no build up to stabilization, the stabilization will occur over a period of months following release. AFTER stabilization, you will see the fluctuation promised. This includes gems due to more and more people adding their gems to the purchase market. Once that number stabilizes, then fluctuations will return.

The exchange rate between gold and gems need to be more fair. Any 3 year olds can deduce that exchanging 2 apples for 3 oranges and then exchange 3 oranges for only 1 apple is not a fair exchange and definitely not anywhere remotely realistic.

In any system run by a government the 2 apples for 3 oranges then 1 orange for 1 apple IS a realistic exchange. In any actual market scenario, taxes come out of it. Our current economic transactions aren’t based on straight trades. EX: If the USA buys a product from CN and it costs 100$ they will pay 150$ and CN will receive 90$, the other 60$ is absorbed by both governments in tariffs and taxes. If the USA then takes that product and sells it to EU for 150$ to make up what they paid, then EU is going to pay 225$ for the same product. 75$ in tariffs and taxes. and USA will only receive 130$ in profit.

If you continue this chain, the price becomes inflated very quickly. But it’s still real world. The reason this DOESN’T happen, is because EU won’t be stupid enough to buy from USA when they can buy directly from CN. The standard citizen, who knows little to nothing of economics, doesn’t care, and will buy from whoever is convenient, which is why the problem persists.

Jelly Lee.7923:

Unless Anet finds a way to completely banish bots, even 1 bot left can wreak havoc on this vulnerable economy.

By this theory 1 enterprising non-bot could wreak havoc on the economy as well. Let me tell you now, there are 100’s of enterprising non-bots who just want to have 100’s of gold in their bank in case they should ever choose to use it. Their need for such surplus is going to the flood the market with items that aren’t needed. Also as people reach higher level, they are going to want to their hard earned gold on gems items. They already have gears, and everything they NEED, so now they can take those excess coins and buy gems. Which creates a high demand in relation to supply.

Jelly Lee.7923:

I suggest that Anet should rethink the reward system. Rather than controlling the exchange rate, shift the control to gold creation instead. Find a way to reward players for meaningful play time at a constant rate with a limit. For example, limit a player’s potential to create say at most 10 silvers per hour of meaningful play time.

I disagree with this. By doing so, you will be limiting players who play with the purpose of earning gold, other than bots. Some people enjoy playing the market, or are saving up for things they need. Creating a cap, on top of being unrealistic, is a bad idea, and would be discouraging to many players.

You may be upset with what you call the spiral, but do you honestly mean to tell me, that you believed those prices would stay the same?! The system was never meant to keep the prices that low. They were that low because the system was fresh. If prices stayed that low, people would have virtually no incentive to buy gems with real money! That does not help fund the game. The prices were that low, because people didn’t have money to pay more. There is now more money in the market, so the prices will reflect that, as it should be. With hundreds of level 80’s running around earning everything they can, of course the price won’t be the same as it was with a bunch of level 20’s running around making coppers….

Anet has already addressed the issue of bots, and stated that they have some stuff in the works for better identification.

What is that old phrase? “Rome wasn’t built in a day” Give it time, give the developers time, and give the community time to stabilize before you expect everything else to stabilize. The players, amounts, levels, types, are still in a state of flux. When, and only when, the playerbase stabilizes will everything else follow. Until then, be prepared to endure the economy.

Yeh, look at spiral knights, release price 1k for 100 energy, cost is now 9k for 100 energy and that game didn’t have bots.

The huge problem is the best way to get gold in this game is farming, and all the bots are there farming. They need to rework the reward systems and make dungeons, dragons and VERY HARD dynamic events give the best rewards.