Guild Wars 2

STAND BACK, EVERYONE, I’M GOING TO DO…

…

MATH!

Assume that the drop rate of an Unbreakable Choir Bell is 0.01%, or 1 in every 10,000 gifts. Then the probability of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell is 99.99%, or 9,999 in every 10,000 gifts. Since the probability of getting something from any gift is independent from what you get from any other gift, we can express the probability of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell as the product of these probabilities. That is, the chance not receiving an Unbreakable Choir Bell is (.9999)^x, where x is equal to the number of gifts that you open.

How many gifts do we need to open to have a 50% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? Solve (.9999)^x = .50 for x. Using rules of logarithms, it can be shown that x = ~6931 gifts. So, you must open about 6931 gifts to have a 50% chance of receiving an Unbreakable Choir Bell.

How many gifts do we need for a 25% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? About 13862 gifts.

10% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? About 23025 gifts.

1% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? About 46049 gifts.

As you can see, it takes a great amount of gifts to be sure that you will get one of these unbreakable bells. Only after about seven thousand gifts will you be more likely to have seen one of these bells than not.

I’ve gotten 3 bells in maybe 8000 gifts. Not sure if that’s useful or not to your math. I believe my friend opened about 5000 gifts for 2.

Vanthian.9267:

Side Note: It would have made more sense to have the bell as reward for getting 100% on all parts (upper, middle, & lower) of the mini bell choir game (not just the lower part), but I assume that goes against their new philosophy.

While unrelated to the actual thread, this would have been a horrible idea. I’ve very musically able, yet fail to get 100% on anything due to occasional lag spikes.

Flissy.4093:

Vanthian.9267:

Side Note: It would have made more sense to have the bell as reward for getting 100% on all parts (upper, middle, & lower) of the mini bell choir game (not just the lower part), but I assume that goes against their new philosophy.

While unrelated to the actual thread, this would have been a horrible idea. I’ve very musically able, yet fail to get 100% on anything due to occasional lag spikes.

Goodness me, I am sorry I suggested a skillful reward in a game that was advertised as such. What was I thinking. Excuse me.

Flissy.4093:

Vanthian.9267:

Side Note: It would have made more sense to have the bell as reward for getting 100% on all parts (upper, middle, & lower) of the mini bell choir game (not just the lower part), but I assume that goes against their new philosophy.

While unrelated to the actual thread, this would have been a horrible idea. I’ve very musically able, yet fail to get 100% on anything due to occasional lag spikes.

Hmm, how about giving the bells to the ones who have decent musical background and pass the basic music exam (know key signature, tempo, accidentals, note value, and the ability to match the tune/pitch) with a score at least 90%. ;D

Lysico.4906:

Magic Find has zero to do with opening chests etc.. OP should know that at your level and time played..

It is just from mobs..

That said, it is random. If you don;t like it, don’t “gamble” your time. They added stuff you can buy. They got stuff you can hunt for.

At the end of the day, if you don’t want to play it their way, do not do it..

That said, you really should not make it like having all the MF stuff matters. That is newbie info and not knowing that makes your credibility questionable.

Yes because me not knowing a single instant of one thing in this games calls into question everything that I have done. Not in the slightest. Just because someone doesn’t know every single little thing about the game does not mean they are a noob. Do I have things to learn about this game? Yes. Do you still have things to learn about this game? Yes.

Stop acting superior to others just because you happen to catch a single clip of dialog from a developer about it.

Shayne Hawke.9160:

STAND BACK, EVERYONE, I’M GOING TO DO…

…

MATH!

Assume that the drop rate of an Unbreakable Choir Bell is 0.01%, or 1 in every 10,000 gifts. Then the probability of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell is 99.99%, or 9,999 in every 10,000 gifts. Since the probability of getting something from any gift is independent from what you get from any other gift, we can express the probability of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell as the product of these probabilities. That is, the chance not receiving an Unbreakable Choir Bell is (.9999)^x, where x is equal to the number of gifts that you open.

How many gifts do we need to open to have a 50% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? Solve (.9999)^x = .50 for x. Using rules of logarithms, it can be shown that x = ~6931 gifts. So, you must open about 6931 gifts to have a 50% chance of receiving an Unbreakable Choir Bell.

How many gifts do we need for a 25% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? About 13862 gifts.

10% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? About 23025 gifts.

1% chance of not getting an Unbreakable Choir Bell? About 46049 gifts.

As you can see, it takes a great amount of gifts to be sure that you will get one of these unbreakable bells. Only after about seven thousand gifts will you be more likely to have seen one of these bells than not.

Stand back from the Exponential Distribution. Which is not the best way to figure this out. It is best to use a Exponential Distribution when the item in questions has a rate of appearance of a Poisson distribution (in which your lambda is a small value; I believe most books go to 20 for their appendix: However our lambda is in the thousands). It is best to use a normal approximation in this case due to that. This is what I was saying when I said a bell curve in the start. A bell curve is a type of normal approximation with fairly large intervals (or small if you so choose).

I will add links if you want, but that is off topic.

The topic is, why have RNG special holiday items with such drop rates when you stated the game was to be one of skill?

Lysico.4906:

Sorry kiddo, but you are just flat out trolling now.. Run along.

First off: How does me not knowing what magic find affects have anything to do with trolling? So I don’t understand one point of the game. At one point you didn’t know either. However that makes no difference into what I said or suggested. I am dead serious. The game was advertised as a skill based horizontal progression game. Now that it is out and playable, there are very few “skill” based items worth having. Nothing says skill like flopping mini’s into a mystic forge to get a chance at a rarer one, or better yet flopping exotics.

Why not bring back a weapons system like in nightfall where tormented weapons needed a armbrace of truth to buy. No random luck drop there (see early post about gathering mats to buy something).

I will address the mini wintersday bear again, since people can not seem to understand what i have already said. Compraing one of the rarest things in Guild Wars 1 to something as small as a unbreakable choir bell ( I am sure you will all say it is not really that defining or rare) is kind of pointless. They are no where near the same tier, nor should they, so that begs the question why put the bell on a RNG instead of making it a skill reward.

Edit: Forgot to mention that there are already 2 other posts about magic find not affecting chest. I answered the first one. Secondly, how can I ignore something I don’t know?

Ouch! dammit! a bee just stung me!

Now was that probability or chance!?

All you people seem to be forgetting the difference between the 2 and how computer programming works.

10,000 gifts open with a 0.01% chance = i should have gotten my bell after opening 10,000 gifts….. ahhh no i dont think so – thats what is called probability out in the real world.

10,000 gifts open with a 0.01% chance = exactly the same chance EVERY TIME U OPEN ONE in computer programming terms regardless if its 10,000 or 100,000. still the same each time..

in other words – its ALL chance, nothing to do with open x amount of items and receive y item. doesn’t work that way.

At the end of the day – its what as best know as GAMBLE – where each attempt = the chance of the last one attempted and doesn’t change or become a “oh thats 1 down, 99 more to go” kind of thing…

i see it more and more – no such thing as probability in RNG, its all chance. Same goes for that sink pool/giant snow globe……

hopefully i made some sense up there…..

Just fyi i’ve opened well over 300 gifts, 2 wooden daggers, 1 candy cane hammer and 1 of those bells – not the infinite ones, just a regular one. by probability status i should of gotten more, by computer terms – i got exactly what i was suppose to…

Frustrating – Big Giant yes!!!

FuriousPop.2789:

Ouch! dammit! a bee just stung me!

Now was that probability or chance!?

All you people seem to be forgetting the difference between the 2 and how computer programming works.

10,000 gifts open with a 0.01% chance = i should have gotten my bell after opening 10,000 gifts….. ahhh no i dont think so – thats what is called probability out in the real world.

10,000 gifts open with a 0.01% chance = exactly the same chance EVERY TIME U OPEN ONE in computer programming terms regardless if its 10,000 or 100,000. still the same each time..

in other words – its ALL chance, nothing to do with open x amount of items and receive y item. doesn’t work that way.

At the end of the day – its what as best know as GAMBLE – where each attempt = the chance of the last one attempted and doesn’t change or become a “oh thats 1 down, 99 more to go” kind of thing…

i see it more and more – no such thing as probability in RNG, its all chance. Same goes for that sink pool/giant snow globe……

hopefully i made some sense up there…..

Just fyi i’ve opened well over 300 gifts, 2 wooden daggers, 1 candy cane hammer and 1 of those bells – not the infinite ones, just a regular one. by probability status i should of gotten more, by computer terms – i got exactly what i was suppose to…

Frustrating – Big Giant yes!!!

I agree with you that every bag has the same chance to give you the bell, but the more you open the better your probability is to get one. Am I saying I will always get something if I calculate with x and it gives me y? No. I am calling into question what the chance of getting one is and asking why is this even random to being with.

Like i said, you can open 10,000 or 100,000 – it doesn’t matter if u open 1,000,000 – chance is still chance…. no probability comes into play here.

You have to remove logic from this equation which your coming back to by stating “probability”.

the question i believe you should be asking is “Why can’t there be a RNG mystic forge recipe much like the mystic clovers for this bell? or any other event special item?”.

To be honest i think that will solve these types of issues cos at least then i know i have to match 4 items, and i can get 5 or 10 items in return so 1/5, 1/10 is better odds than 0.01% chance!

Not having a go at you Vant, just stating my knowledge having done a fair bit of programming as well as statistical numbers and seen results from formula’s from both, very interesting stuff.

I actually like the idea of RNG mystic forge stuff provided the results of those 4 items placed in can only result in <10 items, but having things opened/dropped at a rate of 0.01% (if that really is the rate its at) i just find absolutely crazy. At that rate you’ll be lucky if there is 100 in the whole guild wars 2 population….

But thats my 2 cents….. still think it sucks as many of you have stated…

FuriousPop.2789:

Like i said, you can open 10,000 or 100,000 – it doesn’t matter if u open 1,000,000 – chance is still chance…. no probability comes into play here.

You have to remove logic from this equation which your coming back to by stating “probability”.

I will look into that. It doesn’t make sense to me that that probability can not come into play. I am not very savvy with computer programming ( I know how to code in python/matlab/etc and such for math, but not very big on C++).

As to the question, I would still like to know why the bell wasn’t a skill based reward.

Should be doing homework, but plotted the Probability of Looting given you opened N boxes instead.

Jhereg.6412:

Should be doing homework, but plotted the Probability of Looting given you opened N boxes instead.

Thank you. Best of luck on your homework. =)
It is still not a normal distribution, but thank you anyway.

AnthonyOrdon.3926:

The small, medium, large, giant, and personalized gift boxes all have an equal chance of dropping the endless tonic and the unbreakable bell. In fact, all of the boxes (excluding MTX) drop very similar things at very similar rates. The only reason there are different ones is largely related to crafting, so that lower level players can find and craft level-appropriate stuff from recipes and components.

The drop rate is far too low, you know it ~ I know it ~ Everyone knows it. And it just isn’t with items like this, its the entire RNG process that is killing the game. I’m sorry, but the OP is 100% correct. I’ve now knocked up over 1000 hours since beta, I’ve enjoyed pretty much most areas of the game, but I’m sorry the heavy RNG emphasis is what is pushing players away, and for me ~ This is most likely one of the reasons I’ll most likely quit soon as well.

Sure, the fanboys are scream entitlement, but lets face it~ They are more or less kids who haven’t experienced much in life, I doubt they have even played an MMo that actually requires you to work for your character, this is probably why hacking is such a huge problem in todays MMo industry.

Just some friendly advice, start considering alternative methods for acquiring items such as Endless Tonics//Elusive items etc etc, because quite frankly I don’t see how much longer you guys can keep pushing the RNG down peoples throats before more people start quitting.

Well to play devil’s advocate. These items are supposed to be rare. You can buy some of them from the trading post. In some ways, to make them common would make them less interesting and less valuable. And the items are cosmetic items. There is a demand for them because people want to play with them.

Oh and why is RNG suddenly this terrible thing? Just about every game uses it. It is there to make the game more interesting.

The majority of people in the game don’t want it to be skill based, that was evident after the Mad King jumping puzzle after everyone was crying “It’s too hard!”. The jumping puzzle this time is a joke compared to that one.

If they made the unbreakable bell a reward for having perfect scores at the bell game you would hear people yelling about the game being too hard.

Any cosmetic reward in the PvE area, that is linked to true skill, will eventually get watered down until a majority of the player base is satisfied; at least RNG is fair across the board and is easier to water down than to try and alter skill level requirements for obtaining an item that is only cosmetic.

Vanthian.9267:

FuriousPop.2789:

Like i said, you can open 10,000 or 100,000 – it doesn’t matter if u open 1,000,000 – chance is still chance…. no probability comes into play here.

You have to remove logic from this equation which your coming back to by stating “probability”.

I will look into that. It doesn’t make sense to me that that probability can not come into play. I am not very savvy with computer programming ( I know how to code in python/matlab/etc and such for math, but not very big on C++).

As to the question, I would still like to know why the bell wasn’t a skill based reward.

That’s because he is wrong, and is being pedantic. Yes the odds that you get the bell each time you open a box is the same. However, the probability of getting the bell SOMEWHERE in 10000 boxes, is much much higher.

The actual probability of getting at least one bell given a probability of .01% per box (aka .0001 or 1 in 10000) is:

1 – (.9999)^10000 = 1 – .367861 = .632139 = 63.2%

(.9999)^10000 is the probability of getting no bell 10000 times in a row, by the definition of independence. It does average out to 1 bell in 10000 boxes however, since there is a probability you may get two or more (but that average will only be converged to with a VERY large number of samples, in the billions range probably).

Also there is no difference between probability in the “real world” and in computers, other than the fact that RNGs aren’t truly random. Independence is still independence.

None of the mathematical equations will work because the sample size; is still too low. So there is a significant margin of error. However, that being said ~ even 1/10000 chance is still a horrible chance and I strongly urge Anet/NcSoft to rethink the RNG strategies on future content. Lottery concepts should be kept out of Guild Wars 2.

In retrospect, even with the laws of chance ~ at some point, you have to realize..you have no chance. Lets say, the odds for the unbreakable bell are set at 1/5000 chance, meaning that for every 5000 boxes opened someone in game will receive the bell, the actual odds on you winning that bell before the event ends is so low, I’d almost go as far as saying that there really is no chance. How many of the ‘average’ players are going to farm gold/boxes to that degree? How many will just open maybe a few hundred boxes over the course of the event? How many players will get discouraged and give up? The more people who end up disappointed, are the players anet need to start thinking about.

Guardian Of Tyria.6397:

The majority of people in the game don’t want it to be skill based, that was evident after the Mad King jumping puzzle after everyone was crying “It’s too hard!”. The jumping puzzle this time is a joke compared to that one.

If they made the unbreakable bell a reward for having perfect scores at the bell game you would hear people yelling about the game being too hard.

Any cosmetic reward in the PvE area, that is linked to true skill, will eventually get watered down until a majority of the player base is satisfied; at least RNG is fair across the board and is easier to water down than to try and alter skill level requirements for obtaining an item that is only cosmetic.

That I will agree on. So many people cried fowl on a skill based challenge. It made me sad to see so many people angry at something that was finally somewhat challenging.

Jhereg.6412:

Oh and why is RNG suddenly this terrible thing? Just about every game uses it. It is there to make the game more interesting.

That is the problem though, it doesn’t make the game more interesting for a lot of people. It detracts from the game instead of adding. There is no allure to me at having a random chance at awesome. I would rather earn awesome then pay my way at a chance for it.

TsukasaHiiragi.9730:

AnthonyOrdon.3926:

The small, medium, large, giant, and personalized gift boxes all have an equal chance of dropping the endless tonic and the unbreakable bell. In fact, all of the boxes (excluding MTX) drop very similar things at very similar rates. The only reason there are different ones is largely related to crafting, so that lower level players can find and craft level-appropriate stuff from recipes and components.

The drop rate is far too low, you know it ~ I know it ~ Everyone knows it. And it just isn’t with items like this, its the entire RNG process that is killing the game. I’m sorry, but the OP is 100% correct. I’ve now knocked up over 1000 hours since beta, I’ve enjoyed pretty much most areas of the game, but I’m sorry the heavy RNG emphasis is what is pushing players away, and for me ~ This is most likely one of the reasons I’ll most likely quit soon as well.

Sure, the fanboys are scream entitlement, but lets face it~ They are more or less kids who haven’t experienced much in life, I doubt they have even played an MMo that actually requires you to work for your character, this is probably why hacking is such a huge problem in todays MMo industry.

Just some friendly advice, start considering alternative methods for acquiring items such as Endless Tonics//Elusive items etc etc, because quite frankly I don’t see how much longer you guys can keep pushing the RNG down peoples throats before more people start quitting.

The more I think about the RNG the more I come to understand why so many people like it (I AM IN NO WAY SAYING I LIKE IT). Instead of having skill or take the time to develop it all they have to do is be lucky.

Another way to look at it is this:

The jumping puzzles in this game are honestly not that difficult for me (I am not bragging just being honest). I have done them all with relative easy. Sure, I might have failed 9-15 times on the Halloween one, but the others I usually got first go. However, I have a couple of people on my friends list who for the life of them can not do jumping puzzles.

If a game had nothing but skilled based items a good majority of people would be cut off from the game. They would quit because they would feel the lack of skill they have in their possession. Where as in a RNG system there is nothing to feel ashamed about if you can’t get a item. You can’t change your luck (avoiding the physiologic affects of thinking positive).

I will just leave it at that… just a thought. Don’t mean to keep the thread up so long.

I just don’t get, why things can’t be, say 2500(or how many ever) ugly hats for an unbreakable bell(even maybe make this version account bound). Then still have the unbound version as RNG drop from gifts, but also give 1 ugly hat per gift. Either you get lucky, or well, you get lucky. Is there something I’m missing with a model like this?

They are essentially cutting off alot of items so only a tiny fraction of the most dedicated or lucky players will get the ‘fun’ stuff, and this is the reason why I am seriously contemplating quitting the game myself.

In my vast array of MMo experience, I’ve come to learn many things, and that RNG is one of the major downfalls of some great games. Everything needs to be kept in balance, and we all know ~ GW2 is far from balanced right now.

What should have been done, is very simple ~ all the endless tonics/pre-cursors/everything should have been created so everyone could get them, in a reasonable time frame too. For example ~ The Winter Endless Tonics should have been placed on the vendors for a significant, yet attainable price and they should be account bound (Rare with longer reuse timer) and then, to keep the ‘other’ players happy, you could have a much rarer tradable version (Exotic with shorter reuse timer and not account bound)

NCsofts approach to MMos has always been a grindfest, and GW2 is no different unfortunately.

The vendor should’ve just had 10,000 wool turnin for the bell/endless tonic ON TOP of the RNG, then at least we know there’s an end in sight, but you could get lucky and get it earlier.

TsukasaHiiragi.9730:

For example ~ The Winter Endless Tonics should have been placed on the vendors for a significant, yet attainable price and they should be account bound (Rare with longer reuse timer) and then, to keep the ‘other’ players happy, you could have a much rarer tradable version (Exotic with shorter reuse timer and not account bound).

They kinda did. The normal versions can be bought on the TP. They have a reuse timer of ‘whenever you buy another one’. The much rarer versions have a shorter reuse timer of ‘whenever you want.’

Honestly though, other than gating content by skill, time, knowledge, or luck, there’s not a whole lot of other options. Each of the choices has it’s negative repercussions, and a different segment of the player population will complain about it.

That might not be exactly on topic but: why haven’t those that spend real life money on this (and claim to just want it to make music) bought a Midi Controller and an old version of Cubase from ebay? That would have been even cheaper than some of the sums I read in the forum.
Granted that would not have been a Korg – but so isn’t the Choir Bell.

Someday someone has to explain to me how the focus of a game that was originally about slaying monsters in company shifted in a way that items which where meant to be a fun sideline addition got the (life?) deciding factor to so many people.
In small words please, since I just don’t get it.

lunaticat.4216:

Someday someone has to explain to me how the focus of a game that was originally about slaying monsters in company shifted in a way that items which where meant to be a fun sideline addition got the (life?) deciding factor to so many people.
In small words please, since I just don’t get it.

Because whether that’s the game’s original intent or not, that’s not always the player’s focus.

I really wanted a bell. I did not have enough money to afford it on the auction house. I decided I would give away all of my gold for a bell. I knew that if I wanted a bell, I would have to make a move now while the supply of gifts were high and the prices were low.

I spent all 26 gold I had on presents and did not get a bell. I tried my luck with RNG, and RNG won. I am quitting the game now. Sounds really pathetic, but it is what it is and I thought I’d share my experience with Wintersday.

We upset Santa if we don’t wait until Boxing Day…

I got the Unbreakable Bell last night, after opening about 200 Giant presents.
Was I incredibly lucky?
Or was the OP incredibly unlucky?
Or did they change the drop rate?!

Notes:
All my presents came from repeating the jumping puzzle, I didn’t buy any.

I got about 150 Giant Presents from the JP yesterday, I opened them all at once, the unbreakable bell popped at about the 130th.

I got about 72 Giant Presents the previous day, I opened them all at once the same day, so I started with 0 presents yesterday.

What a lot of people are forgetting at there’s a limited acquisition window on these items too; when you take that into consideration, these items swiftly disappear out of the reach of normal players; people who probably have 100 socks / sweaters, maybe 50 hats and have only just hit the monthly achievement present opening requirement.

These posts with people opening thousands of presents in order to get the skin are the exception, not the norm, and if they’re having a hard time getting these items, normal players stand no chance whatsoever. That’s where ArenaNet’s RNG statistics get it wrong; they favour the gold-rich, not the average player.

Quests with these things as a reward are a much better idea and a lot more inclusive.

And if ArenaNet want to make money from the store, they should release items that are exclusive to it and won’t drop in the game itself. The current system only serves to muddy the waters and frustrate players.

Took me 7 years in GW1 playing HA daily to get a Crystalline Sword, but when i did…. it sold for millions.

RNG is part of the game, i’ve been trying to get The Colossus for a long time, my gf crated 4 rares with Weaponsmith and got The Legend, on her 2nd or 3rd try.

RNG is RNG.

If anything, the easy way for people to not complain is to make these items have a 0.0000000001% of dropping, some so rare we wouldn’t even know they exist until 4 years later into the game.

Mungrul.9358:

normal players stand no chance whatsoever. That’s where ArenaNet’s RNG statistics get it wrong; they favour the gold-rich, not the average player.

Like i said before RNG is RNG, if the bells has 1% of dropping it doesn’t mean that if you buy 100 gifts, 1 will have the bell.

It means everytime you open a gift you have 1% of getting the item, when you open the next gift your chance is still at 1%.

So by all means, i’ve been farming the JP and i have opened maybe 300 or 400 gifts and got nothing good.

But you can never farm at all, and open a gift and have it, or open 2 gifts and have 2.

RNG is RNG.

It seems to me that people complaining about this or that system designed to keep rare items rare, forget that as soon as you water it down, as soon as make those rare items available for less time/effort, they cease to be valuable. Would you desire to get a legendary sword that is really cool looking if every single character can get one (and does get one).

Realize that if designers had to create a system which guarantees rarity and does not use RNG, it would have to be viciously hard. And I mean viciously, harder than even those impossible arcade game levels they used to do from time to time back in the day. Forget the clock tower, way, way harder than that. And it would have to be again based on procedural randomization, in order to ensure no “easy guide to getting X” will ever have an effect on the system, which really boils down to RNG only more interactive (for example “your legendary item is buried somewhere in the world. Here is a shovel, go get it!”).
No other way to ensure only a tiny fraction of your pretty large playerbase gets access to the “good stuff”.

This isn’t about some weapon skin, it’s about playing a fun mini-game. By keeping them rare they are locking out content from a lot of players once Wintersday ends.

Taikanaru.5746:

This isn’t about some weapon skin, it’s about playing a fun mini-game. By keeping them rare they are locking out content from a lot of players once Wintersday ends.

But that’s the thing, the content is available in the versions that are not endless. The unbreakable/endless versions are just like trophies really.

if you want it so much just buy it

ANet would make more money and having less complains if they introduce another currency besides Gem and Gold.

Gem and Gold can be traded as they are right now. Introducing Diamond currency which can be purchased by real money only (unable to trade by Gem or Gold) then selling rare, unique item skins (legendary precursor, unbreakable bell, rare endless tonic, rare weapons/armors skins)

People who loves gambling can still trade Gem from Gold to play.

People like me that do not like RNG can purchase directly from TP using cash for Diamond to obtain the items.

Introducing Diamond currency will get money directly to ANet and not through 3rd party gold seller (buy gold in black market, convert to gems) which will not benefit ANet.

Wasabee.5031:

ANet would make more money and having less complains if they introduce another currency besides Gem and Gold.

Gem and Gold can be traded as they are right now. Introducing Diamond currency which can be purchased by real money only (unable to trade by Gem or Gold) then selling rare, unique item skins (legendary precursor, unbreakable bell, rare endless tonic, rare weapons/armors skins)

People who loves gambling can still trade Gem from Gold to play.

People like me that do not like RNG can purchase directly from TP using cash for Diamond to obtain the items.

Introducing Diamond currency will get money directly to ANet and not through 3rd party gold seller (buy gold in black market, convert to gems) which will not benefit ANet.

You would get so many people crying “P2W!!!” if they put in a currency that you can just buy everything with, since many people consider “winning” getting all the cool looking stuff. You can already do that right now too, by using real money to buy gems and selling those gems for gold, and using that gold to buy your legendary ingredients (or legendary itself), your wintersday gifts to open to get the bell, your ToT bags to get endless halloween tonic, etc. Granted it would probably cost you thousands of dollars to get this stuff, but the option is there.

Guardian Of Tyria.6397:

Wasabee.5031:

ANet would make more money and having less complains if they introduce another currency besides Gem and Gold.

Gem and Gold can be traded as they are right now. Introducing Diamond currency which can be purchased by real money only (unable to trade by Gem or Gold) then selling rare, unique item skins (legendary precursor, unbreakable bell, rare endless tonic, rare weapons/armors skins)

People who loves gambling can still trade Gem from Gold to play.

People like me that do not like RNG can purchase directly from TP using cash for Diamond to obtain the items.

Introducing Diamond currency will get money directly to ANet and not through 3rd party gold seller (buy gold in black market, convert to gems) which will not benefit ANet.

You would get so many people crying “P2W!!!” if they put in a currency that you can just buy everything with, since many people consider “winning” getting all the cool looking stuff. You can already do that right now too, by using real money to buy gems and selling those gems for gold, and using that gold to buy your legendary ingredients (or legendary itself), your wintersday gifts to open to get the bell, your ToT bags to get endless halloween tonic, etc. Granted it would probably cost you thousands of dollars to get this stuff, but the option is there.

The option is still there for people to trade gold for gem to obtain it. Plus P2W will not be there because the same items are on TP under different currency. P2W only occur if that items only available through direct cash and not through any other method. If you consider P2W in that aspect than this current market is also P2W.

With the new “direct pay” currency, it will be easier for ANet to control the market and not let farmers manipulate the market as it is now. For example: ANet can put $30 equivalent to purchase a legendary precursor, the market will auto drop the gold price on the item (controlling inflation)

With the current market, there will be a lot of people will purchase gold in black market (this will hurt ANet financial) and turn around convert it into gem (will this be P2W too? no it is not because you can farm for it if you like) or if someone is afraid of being banned, they can purchase gem directly from ANet and convert to gold to purchase items (will this be P2W too?)

It’s only P2W if you can obtain that item through 1 method of trading (real money) and not in any other method.

Another whiny thread from someone who doesn’t understand what the words “random” and “rare” mean?

And don’t even try the “there was no RNG like this in GW1” lies. Go ahead and name one everlasting tonic that isn’t acquired via RNG.

Also, the unbreakable bell gives you near-unlimited potential to annoy everyone around you. If it were a common drop, everyone with ears would be really angry.

Taikanaru.5746:

This isn’t about some weapon skin, it’s about playing a fun mini-game. By keeping them rare they are locking out content from a lot of players once Wintersday ends.

All of the other Wintersday content disappears after Wintersday…

EnemyCrusher.7324:

Another whiny thread from someone who doesn’t understand what the words “random” and “rare” mean?

And don’t even try the “there was no RNG like this in GW1” lies. Go ahead and name one everlasting tonic that isn’t acquired via RNG.

You are either bad at reading comprehension or just missed the second point that has been posted throughout this thread many a time. The question was not only why is the bell on a RNG, but also why is there so many RNG items in Guild Wars 2 to being with. In a game pushed as skill based there are very few things in game that require skill to get.

The reason I posted about the bell is due to the fact they have a entire mini game based around it, yet the unbreakable version of what you use in that mini game is not a reward for being skilled at it…. how does that make any sense? Instead I am forced to grind out gifts of some time at a chance for it. How is that skillful? How does that show anything. It just shows I am willing to smack my head against a wall until it falls down. The game has great potential to be a game of skill based progression, but with each update and new content release the RNG makes another appearance in a more pronounced manner.

I will give anet the props they deserve for fixing ascended rings. They made a great change to the way they are acquired. You can either show skill by running fractals at least 10 times at the minimum level of 10 to insure you get one ring or you get lucky inside of those 10 runs (I might add extremely lucky).

You have oblivious forgotten about the fact that some of the rarest items in Guild Wars 1 (for a time) were the Tormented weapons. These weapons where not on a RNG. This is the type of items I expected in Guild Wars 2. Something you can work towards while actually playing content.

Also, I never said Guild Wars 1 had 0 RNG throughout the entire game I said their ARMOR had 0 RNG. Also, note that Oppressor weapons were not on RNG, Destory weapons, Tormented weapons (as stated), Perfect salvage kits, high end consumables, and I could go on but I think you get the point. Not everything rare in Guild Wars 1 was on RNG. There is hardly anything in Guild Wars 2 that is not on RNG and rare.

LadyRhonwyn.2501:

mojodamm.6854:

Taikanaru.5746:

Most who wants the Unbreakable Bell Choir intent to actually use it instead of selling it.

While I have no doubt that there are many players, myself included, who intend to use and cherish the bell, I think someone would have to be deluded if they believe that the majority of players wouldn’t cash in immediately if they pulled one out of a box.

Yes, and that’s the sad part of any online game. People get something really rare, and the first thing they do is sell it for gold. I’m not counting things like exotic armour and rare dyes as they can be gotten any day of the year, but things like specific event items, like those bells.

I found Black dye on my very 1st day. It was the 1st dye I consumed. A few weeks ago, I found White. I gave it to a friend, because I would never use it. Not all of us are money grubbing kittens. :p

This message was brought to you by a Kitten with a Keyboard

Wasabee.5031:

ANet would make more money and having less complains if they introduce another currency besides Gem and Gold.

Gem and Gold can be traded as they are right now. Introducing Diamond currency which can be purchased by real money only (unable to trade by Gem or Gold) then selling rare, unique item skins (legendary precursor, unbreakable bell, rare endless tonic, rare weapons/armors skins)

People who loves gambling can still trade Gem from Gold to play.

People like me that do not like RNG can purchase directly from TP using cash for Diamond to obtain the items.

Introducing Diamond currency will get money directly to ANet and not through 3rd party gold seller (buy gold in black market, convert to gems) which will not benefit ANet.

I think that is a very bad idea, but this is my opinion. Doing this would only further serve to make it more confusing to start the game. The game already has three types of currency in it.

Also, putting the precursor weapons in the Gem store (or Diamond store in your version) would cause such a backlash I could not even being to describe the fury of some. Being able to buy one of the rarest things in game (which as I have said before needs to be on RNG) would bring that item to mean nothing. It would lose any type of meaning.

To those that will comment back at this and aim it to the others saying they should add the bell to the gem store, THE BELL IS NOT A PRECURSOR LEGENDARY ITEM. It is obvious it is not that rare considering that at any point in time during this Wintersday there are 40+ available with more coming each hour.

crystalpink.2487:

Flissy.4093:

Vanthian.9267:

Side Note: It would have made more sense to have the bell as reward for getting 100% on all parts (upper, middle, & lower) of the mini bell choir game (not just the lower part), but I assume that goes against their new philosophy.

While unrelated to the actual thread, this would have been a horrible idea. I’ve very musically able, yet fail to get 100% on anything due to occasional lag spikes.

Hmm, how about giving the bells to the ones who have decent musical background and pass the basic music exam (know key signature, tempo, accidentals, note value, and the ability to match the tune/pitch) with a score at least 90%. ;D

No! You can’t require people to actually know how to do something useful! Let them think that because they can get a high score in Guitar Hero they are bound to be the next Steven Tyler

This message was brought to you by a Cynical Kitten

Opened 500, nothing but a princess wand skin and hundreds of sweaters and snowflakes, a few cheap recipes. I’ll try again after I farm more. Also, recipes are so uselessly cheap.. lol.

Any chance on a recipe (which will undoubtedly sell for less than 1s to disallow us recouping our costs for farming it), to create the bell using the hundreds of useless materials we obtained trying to get this?

I really wish ANet would implement Gaussian distribution for their RNG. Basically, try to normalize the chance a bit so that the numbers aren’t extremely high or low on the ends of the chart.

The more you fail, the more likely you are rewarded next time. The more you are rewarded, the less you are likely to be rewarded again.

At least this way, every box you open is satisfying because you are actively making it more likely that you’ll get something better next time.

I agree Katai, but I have the feeling its not in their business plan. If they did this kind of thing it would appease pretty much every player but they won’t do it because people buy gold.

AnthonyOrdon.3926:

The small, medium, large, giant, and personalized gift boxes all have an equal chance of dropping the endless tonic and the unbreakable bell. In fact, all of the boxes (excluding MTX) drop very similar things at very similar rates. The only reason there are different ones is largely related to crafting, so that lower level players can find and craft level-appropriate stuff from recipes and components.

Does that include the minis? I’d heard they only dropped from giant gifts so any time I had a choice I’d been choosing only the giant gifts and saving up the junk to buy them. It would be very disapointing to find out that trying to improve my chances was actually making me less likely to get one.

(And yes it does make it less likely, even if they have the same % chance. One 1% chance is less than three 1% chances.)