Guild Wars 2

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

Hi,

I was farming Black Lion Keys for scraps. When I was doing this for Dreamthistle GS everything was good, but now… I spent 12 keys with no result… I know that there is small chance for scraps, but it looks like a 0% right now. I’m sure there should be more chance or something is bugged on my account. AN, do you have explanation for this?

Yawn….RNG

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

Will I get answer from AN?

I seriously doubt you’d get a response from ANet on this one. The twelve keys is hardly a decent representative sampling to determine that something is wrong.

Sounds like bad luck to me.

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

TChalla.7146:

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

Will I get answer from AN?

I seriously doubt you’d get a response from ANet on this one. The twelve keys is hardly a decent representative sampling to determine that something is wrong.

Sounds like bad luck to me.

So how will you explain that when I was farming for Dreamthistle GS drop was 1 gold ticket and 5 scraps? Only 2 failrules.

RNG.

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

TChalla.7146:

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

Will I get answer from AN?

I seriously doubt you’d get a response from ANet on this one. The twelve keys is hardly a decent representative sampling to determine that something is wrong.

Sounds like bad luck to me.

So how will you explain that when I was farming for Dreamthistle GS drop was 1 gold ticket and 5 scraps? Only 2 failrules.

Good luck perhaps? It is the nature of randomness. Results can be streaky.

I opened 79 BL Chests a few days ago. I got 1 full ticket, and 14 scraps. RNG is RNG. If you’d like more, please buy BL Keys from Evon, and support our local hero charr.

If ticket equals a .05 drop rate (just a random rate, idk what it is) you will get 5 tickets in a 100 chests (in theory). Probability of No ticket=.95. Likelihood of this happening 12 times in a row is .95^12.=.54. So you’re outcome is actually pretty likely given the sample size. Hooray math! Even if you opened 100 and got 0 it’s still possible (just VERY unlucky, but probable).

I’ve been doing key runs for some time now. So far I’ve averaged around one scrap per 5 runs, which would be 1 ticket for 50 runs. But that’s averaging it out. I’ve had long periods of doing runs with no scraps gained. You just had a run of good luck and now Its back to the average.

There is (or was) a video of someone who bought 100 keys last year, trying to get enough tickets for 3 Sclerite Weapons back when they first came out. In the video, he was getting pretty close to a 1/5 chance of getting another key from each chest he opened, so even with roughly 120 chests opened, he was only able to get 2 Sclerite Weapons.

And from here, I refer you to any one of the 100 or so “Stop locking all the good stuff behind real-money-gambling RNG chests!” threads that you will find on this forums (there’s at least 1 new thread popping up every 2 weeks or so).

Random is random.

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

Hi,

I was farming Black Lion Keys for scraps. When I was doing this for Dreamthistle GS everything was good, but now… I spent 12 keys with no result… I know that there is small chance for scraps, but it looks like a 0% right now. I’m sure there should be more chance or something is bugged on my account. AN, do you have explanation for this?

The R in RNG stands for Random.

Even if the odds are say, 20%, that doesn’t mean that you’re guaranteed one if you buy 5, or 10, or even 15. It just means that each time, you have a 1 in 5 chance. If you bought 100, I’m sure you’d see results resembling the real drop rate. The simple fact is that 12 is way way waaaaay to small a sample size to actually give you an accurate read on the actual drop rate.

The R stands for Ripoff.

In 1000-2000 years there will be a global religion based around the mysteries of the RNG of MMORPGs of the early 21st century. This thread will be a hymn sung at tuesday mass.

Gieniusz Krab.8259:

Hi,

I was farming Black Lion Keys for scraps. When I was doing this for Dreamthistle GS everything was good, but now… I spent 12 keys with no result… I know that there is small chance for scraps, but it looks like a 0% right now. I’m sure there should be more chance or something is bugged on my account. AN, do you have explanation for this?

I have an explanation: You got lucky and assumed that was normal.

Larger sample sizes suggest that the average is around 1:100 for tickets, 1:20 for scraps.

For you to get a scrap in a mere 12 tries would be unusually high.

Solo.9027:

In 1000-2000 years there will be a global religion based around the mysteries of the RNG of MMORPGs of the early 21st century. This thread will be a hymn sung at tuesday mass.

Confirmed – John Smith is a deity.

I`ve never even seen a scrap, but I have looted a ticket from a chest. I think he has a fair point that the scraps are far too rare, especially if we need ten of them.

i only have 1 scrap, don’t care anymore because the RNG is to me nothing more then a way to get ripped off and i really don’t like tog et ripped off. (Anet is doing that already anyway to EU players but then again, they really believe we are idiots who don’t know any better)

chronometria.3708:

I`ve never even seen a scrap, but I have looted a ticket from a chest. I think he has a fair point that the scraps are far too rare, especially if we need ten of them.

“too rare” is an awful subjective thing. Who’s to decide what’s an appropriate amount? The odds of winning the powerball jackpot IRL are 1 in 175MILLION. The odds of even winning back your ticket price are not even quite 1 in 50 (just under 2%). Some people find that too low, but other people find it just fine. Gambling at it’s core is unfair and irrational. It is designed for you to lose. The single and simple solution if you don’t like the odds is to not play.

From the ones ive opened it seems to be between 10 and 20% chance to get a scrap, depending on how lucky you feel, the time of day, the phase of the moon, ect.

Really just buy the skin outright on the trading post instead of trying to gamble on getting scraps to buy it yourself.

Its too bad too, they would probably sell a lot more keys if it was more reasonable, no one is going to actually buy keys with gems if it takes 300 of them to just MAYBE have enough to get one of the older skins.

Sizer.5632:

Really just buy the skin outright on the trading post instead of trying to gamble on getting scraps to buy it yourself.

the problem is that there are some skins you can’t get without scraps, i love to have the jade dragon longbow but with this pay wall blocking everything i can’t get it regardless how much gold i have.

please u have no reason to complain about not getting the rewards you want , thats random, thats life, its not ur birth right to get a scrap after the magic number 12 chests

either give up or keep trying but please stop complaining….

Duke Nukem.6783:

please u have no reason to complain about not getting the rewards you want , thats random, thats life, its not ur birth right to get a scrap after the magic number 12 chests

either give up or keep trying but please stop complaining….

why, are you afraid they’re gonna improve stuff so it doesn’t make you unique anymore?

sorudo.9054:

Duke Nukem.6783:

please u have no reason to complain about not getting the rewards you want , thats random, thats life, its not ur birth right to get a scrap after the magic number 12 chests

either give up or keep trying but please stop complaining….

why, are you afraid they’re gonna improve stuff so it doesn’t make you unique anymore?

no i just hate entitled kids who think good fortune is their birth right, good things are not worth having if you dont suffer and sacrifice for them

oh….and i buy my skins when they come out so this doesnt affect me, not sit around opening chests

sorudo.9054:

Duke Nukem.6783:

please u have no reason to complain about not getting the rewards you want , thats random, thats life, its not ur birth right to get a scrap after the magic number 12 chests

either give up or keep trying but please stop complaining….

why, are you afraid they’re gonna improve stuff so it doesn’t make you unique anymore?

I don’t think anyone getting BL skin is doing it to be unique because they aren’t unique … anyone has the capability to spend money or gold to get them.

I don’t see what improvement is needed here. This is how Anet makes their revenue. I don’t think players should end up footing the bill with a monthly sub so more people can wave around skins they want.

this subject and similar has been beat to death 100x over. you gambled bro. that is all.

sorudo.9054:

Sizer.5632:

Really just buy the skin outright on the trading post instead of trying to gamble on getting scraps to buy it yourself.

the problem is that there are some skins you can’t get without scraps, i love to have the jade dragon longbow but with this pay wall blocking everything i can’t get it regardless how much gold i have.

Do you have 40 gold? It’s on the TP for around that. Do a search for Dragon’s Jade Hornbow Skin.

My daughter rarely plays, had two locked chests in her bank, gets a key drop from a vet skelk by FE (and this is her third key drop from some random beast in the past month). She opens one chest, and, of course, she gets a ticket AND a scrap. Then I punched her in the face…for science.

While the chances are indeed low for tickets/scraps, I did notice a decrease in their drops of late. I went 10-15 chests without a single scrap; after that, however, I did get 2 scraps from 2 chests in a row. I would put this on RNG and move on, but I am not the only one to notice this: several friends have complained that the chests yielded less scraps/tickets since the Tormented weapons came online…

3 keys 3 scraps :P

SingleDoubt.6047:

My daughter rarely plays, had two locked chests in her bank, gets a key drop from a vet skelk by FE (and this is her third key drop from some random beast in the past month). She opens one chest, and, of course, she gets a ticket AND a scrap. Then I punched her in the face…for science.

Thanks to you now, my co-worker knows i’m not working.