Guild Wars 2

0 chests and by the looks of it I’m glad I decided not to.

Kurow.6973:

…and then there are those who spend some time with the RNG to see if the reward rate is fair, or if it’s extremely kitten (as it is in this case). When they aren’t satisfied, they completely give up, and start having a terrible taste left over in their mouth for the game.

I agree. I think it’s mostly different people, who buy the RNG stuff until they get burned. Then they stop. But there’s always another sucker (one born every minute! ) and so ANet / NCSoft keeps finding more people to buy their lousy-rate stuff. Plus there’s the people who are on the more pathological side of the collecting and hoard digital stuff instead of physical stuff.

1 chest
… all the tickets

/win

About 130 keys and nothing. I know it is range and I can accept this, but the drop rate is way too low. I have played other games with boxes and the drop rate was much better on those than it is here. If someone opens 100 chests, they should at least get 1 token, even knowing that it is range.
And to those that say do not spend anything and it will change their minds. That will never happen, There are way too many people playing this game to have everyone stop doing it. This is why this format works very well.
However, know that, I still think they should have them on the Gem store itself for like 2000 gems or so. That way people have a choice to either gamble on them with the box in the hopes to get one cheaper or those that want one outright can spend more to get one.

Just my two cents

I was out of karma boosters and needed a couple service things so I figured I’d chance the BLC and see if I got a ticket along the way. Ended up with 29 Keys. 0 tickets. I did get useful stuff, and in all, I came out in the listed value of useful items out of the chests, picking up more than the usual amount of items I can actually use. I’d have bought a lot of the stuff piecemeal over time anyways.

Still a bit sad to know I’ll never have one of these skins.

Kuldred.2436:

MikeRocks.9243:

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

This is very true. The only people likely to post are either those that have opened a lot of chests and received nothing, or those who’ve opened very few and received one.

Not even accounting for the MASSIVE player base that doesn’t even touch the forums.

And this is exactly why you can NEVER obtain accurate data from a survey. OP may not like to hear it, but John Smith is spot on.

Literally no one here would have expected this to be statistically accurate in the first place. Of course he’s spot on, just as everyone else is spot on, but they didn’t feel the need to voice the obvious. It’s simply a curiosity thing, get over yourself.

I bought 50 keys. I don’t remember how many extra keys I got from chests though, about 8. I received 0 tickets, but I did get the tiger charr backpack, so I’m happy about that.

I imagine these weapons will become much more commonplace as time goes on.

Statistically inaccurate and prone to bias, certainly. Single tries that do / don’t get a token tell you very little, and there’s the reporting bias element.

But a large number of negative tries from a single individual does suggest a low drop rate – you could calculate confidence limits around how low it’s likely to be. There is some bias still, as folks who buy a hundred keys and get tokens are less likely to post then those who get squat … But I’d hope there aren’t that many who can afford to waste the cash on buying 100 keys at a time.

5 chests = 1 ticket and one name change contract then i bought another 15 or so and got nothing all i want is just one more so i can get the bow aswell then ill be happy

I thought I’d contribute a little to science at any rate. I probably won’t be opening more than 50 at present, I don’t have too much interest in the Fused Weapon skins. The time will come again when there’s something I really want added to the Chests

50 Black Lion Chests opened:

Influence

Small Guild Discovery: 6
Medium Guild Discovery: 4

Boosters

Speed: 3
Kill Streak: 7
Karma: 4
MF: 5
Crafting: 5
Rejuv: 5
PvP Glory: 7
Experience: 6
Armor: 2
Strength: 4

Black Lion Related

Bank Access Express: 8
Merchant Express: 8
TP Express: 10
Black Lion Key: 7
Harvesting Axe: 3
Harvesting Sickle: 1
Salvage Kit: 1

Miscell:

Self Style Hair Kit: 1
Heavy Bag of Coin: 10
Unidentified Dye (1) : 8
Unidentified Dye (2) : 4
Mystery Tonic (3) : 17
Instant Repair Canister: 6
Dye Pack: 1
Revive Orb: 3
Transmutation Crystal (5) : 1

^ Sounds about right. I opened around 130 and got about the same, along with a full makeover kit and a couple other items or so, but no ticket

As an aside, during my drops, I got guild influence stuff as well. I kind of hate those since the only thing I’d want to invest money into is to get the new guild weapons, but no matter how many points I put into my personal guild, I can’t buy those.

It would be nice if chests came in varieties, where all the premium stuff was part of the same table, but the filler stuff like boosts and bric-a-brac were grouped so stuff wasn’t totally useless. There could be solo/guild and PvE/PvP options.

Obtena.7952:

1 chest
… all the tickets

/win

Darn, beat my two chests and one ticket

1 key, 1 ticket and it even adds fun that I used the key (which I don’t remember where I got) then realized it would not be a wise idea to open unlocked chest 5 minutes before the patch.
I don’t know though why people got so mad about tickets drop since skins are too far from being stellar IMO.
Not going to touch those RNG and gem involved stuff.

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

In another game that I used to play they were eventually forced to publish (very obscure site they put it up on..) the drop rates on gamble items such as these chests- maybe someone got them defined as a game of chance after some legal action (probably after spending thousands of dollars to get nothing).

There is nothing to be gained by treating your customers like monkeys- you might gain some short term cash on sales but in the longer term you will lose out. When you walk into a casino, you know the odds before you start.

Maybe instead of the flip comments some real hard facts would be nice.

Personally, bought ten keys, opened, no skin. Disappointed. No idea what the drop rate is but the advertising made it seem like it should be better than one in ten- false advertising claims perhaps?

5 keys
2 chests
1 ticket

Just my input. Had 26 keys sat in my vault from the last time i opened chests (halloween).

Chest 1: Black Lion Salvage Kit
Chest 2: Nothing of note
Chest 3: Fused weapon claim ticket

Decided not to waste the other 23 and I have pulled out while im ahead. The Joys of RNG i geuss, woke up lucky today.

43 chests so far, no ticket. I’m still motivated to keep trying though!

Does anyone know when this event ends? How long can we continue to gamble for Fusion weapons?

Electro.4173:

Ursan.7846:

For the life of me I don’t understand people who don’t like RNG but still spend money on them.

[..]
Its not like people are saying “I hate the RNG, but I’m going to buy a bunch of keys for no reason”. They do it because they want the skins, and as much as they might hate the RNG, playing the hated RNG and having a chance at skins > having no chance at all.

But Arenanet KNOW the drop rate of the item and could just say “pay this much”. I think the price is so high, they like to disguise it with RNG because people would shy away from paying that price if they knew what it was.

Gasoline.2570:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Svarty.8019:

I get the impression that people don’t like this random chance stuff.

And easy solution to this is not to roll the dice.

True that. Vote with your wallets. Let us not give anet any money.

You sir, have a deal!

I guess I am lucky then, got my first and only ticket from one chest!

tried around 7-8 chests and failed to get one

I still thinking which weapon to apply the skin on xD

I wouldn’t mind having one of those weapons, but not going to pay money for RNG. Guess I will do key runs and see if I can get one that way. (Human, warrior, commoner).

Can’t remember the last time a BL key dropped for me- but then I’m mostly in wvw and they don’t seem to drop at all there, or must be very rare.

Got about 150 chests and 0 keys on my account.

laharl.8435:

Literally no one here would have expected this to be statistically accurate in the first place. Of course he’s spot on, just as everyone else is spot on, but they didn’t feel the need to voice the obvious. It’s simply a curiosity thing, get over yourself.

Then what you’re saying is that this is just a RNG kitten session disguised as science?

I can accept that.

Anyway, I had about 8 keys laying around and finally finished some of the personal story stuff for my characters, so I ended up with about 12 keys, which then turned into 18 keys due to gettings keys from the chests themselves. I didn’t get any of the skins, but I wasn’t really expecting to. I was surprised to get a Total Makeover Kit, though. It’s fun to gender swap your character and see what the results are.

Opened 80 chests, 3 tickets (had one from before so thats 4 now). Lots of great other rewards too, think i shall do it again next week lol.

If the devs did publish the entire “sausage making” process of rewards via BLC including all the drop tables and item weights players will still be upset and the discussion will move from RNG to defining how rare rare should be. Or how their reward methodology for chests is “faulty” or “poorly designed”.

95 black lion chests opened, nothing.

I tried to be optimistic, but I’m seriously starting to doubt Arenanet even plays their own game.

I actually have very harsh critique in game design for their “resident economist”, but I’ll restrain myself because this is an official forum post.

While it’s true RNG boxes makes ArenaNet profit, if they don’t clean up their act I’m sure the company will lose integrity. Ironically, what ArenaNet themselves are doing is Russian Roulette with their company’s reputation.

Well, a total of around 80 keys yielded 2 skins. Totally not worth it, won’t be trying any more RNG boxes in future so that’s one less customer next time around.

Much better to yield less and more often by actually selling the skins themselves, then customers would get what they want without having a sour taste left in their mouth.

Thought I just update my findings.

I have now opened 160 black lion chest and now have total of 8 tokens.

I will upload few pictures once I am on my PC if people are interested in seeing them.

Somehow though, I have a feeling the April 1st update will let us convert boosters to tickets. In which case, as a customer who has bought 100 chests worth of gems, I will be satisfied.

I hope I can convert bank access, trading post access and mystery tonics into something April 1 – I’ve got way more of those than I’ll ever use. I like my karma and crafting boosters.

While Mr. Smith can be glib (as he usually is) about the biases inherent when people complain about poor drop rates for the fused weapon tokens, I don’t think the point of people posting here is to nail down the accurate drop rate. It’s more to forewarn people that you’re probably going to end up disappointed. Anyhow, my results from 40 chests: 0 tokens. For what it’s worth, I’m anticipating a fused token reward at the end of the events next month, but I will NEVER be purchasing keys again. The drops from black lion chests are simply never rewarding frequently enough to make them feel worth the expense.

I’ve now dropped over $300 on getting a Fused weapon. I have yet to get a single Fused Ticket. I’m extremely angry about this, as I’ve had every single guildie who has tried spend $35 USD or less to get one.

After spending well in excess of $1,500 in the Gem Store since launch, I will no longer be spending any more money supporting this idiotic system. I would have gladly paid $10-$15 for a ticket directly out of the gem store. This is absurd and I feel robbed from my expenditures in the Gem Store.

At least one of my guildies sent me 100g to finish up saving for my precursor… otherwise, I would have spent those gems on something slightly more useful than the absurdly skewed chance for a Fused Ticket.

ANET, this type of business model is amazing for your profitability. But you’ve just lost over $2,000 in just this fiscal year from me. I was going to continue to support the game via the Gem Store, but after being ripped off in such a massive way…

I invite you to change it to a purchasable item, and perhaps give those who spent innumerable amounts of complimentary ticket as compensation. However, you guys won’t do that, since that requires appreciating your customers who support you via the Gem Store. I regret all the money I’ve spent in that Gem Store now, and I’m really upset that you’ve made me feel so slighted that I feel that way now. It disappoints me that I am so discouraged by greedy business practices instead of the fun loving, eager to please ANET of yesteryear.

Well here’s the issue, and I hope ANET considers my feedback: Drop rates are so low that many have zero incentive whatsoever to spend real money on the gemstore. We don’t want to use real money for something we know we will lose in the first place.

Let’s put this in perspective: A number of players including myself report opening 100+ boxes. $10 gems= 800, but for the sake of convenience, let’s just round that up to 900 because players can convert gold to gems. So every $10 spent gives us 10 chests to open. Many players such as myself have spent more than $100 worth of gems without receiving a token.

While I understand RNG is RNG, it looks to me like this is too much RNG. After $100 worth of gems I have no incentive to spend money anymore.

Perhaps the RNG needs to be assisted (in certain circumstances) by a dose of certainty.

Example #1: If someone puts 1000 level 80 rare swords into the mystic forge, he gets a precursor anyway, regardless of what the RNG has given him. It gives people a target. There’s no way I’m going to gamble on a 0.001 chance normally, but with the certainty there, I’d grind towards it.

Example #2: Similarly, if someone opens 100 gem box things, they get a ticket regardless of whether they got another ticket earlier.

Is this too much to ask, and if so, why?

Sojar.1495:

I’ve now dropped over $300 on getting a Fused weapon. I have yet to get a single Fused Ticket. I’m extremely angry about this, as I’ve had every single guildie who has tried spend $35 USD or less to get one.

After spending well in excess of $1,500 in the Gem Store since launch, I will no longer be spending any more money supporting this idiotic system. I would have gladly paid $10-$15 for a ticket directly out of the gem store. This is absurd and I feel robbed from my expenditures in the Gem Store.

At least one of my guildies sent me 100g to finish up saving for my precursor… otherwise, I would have spent those gems on something slightly more useful than the absurdly skewed chance for a Fused Ticket.

ANET, this type of business model is amazing for your profitability. But you’ve just lost over $2,000 in just this fiscal year from me. I was going to continue to support the game via the Gem Store, but after being ripped off in such a massive way…

I invite you to change it to a purchasable item, and perhaps give those who spent innumerable amounts of complimentary ticket as compensation. However, you guys won’t do that, since that requires appreciating your customers who support you via the Gem Store. I regret all the money I’ve spent in that Gem Store now, and I’m really upset that you’ve made me feel so slighted that I feel that way now. It disappoints me that I am so discouraged by greedy business practices instead of the fun loving, eager to please ANET of yesteryear.

$300? I’m sorry I just can’t see this.. I know RNG is RNG but I got my first ticket on key 58. I did an additional 80 and ended up with 3. I too spend large amounts on the gem store for events and things, but $300 for keys is like 265 keys? I just can’t imagine the RNG gods hating someone so much. And on top of that, 265 keys HAD to of gotten you at least 50+ more keys making it over 300. Not calling liar here, but really… This for me is just hard to believe. This is why I always record my results.

Amusingly enough, this thread is full of anecdotal evidence why Anet will probably continue with their RNG boxes. Obviously your desire for these new skins is higher than your disgust at RNG and Anet is counting on that.

And I hate it. I do not like these RNG boxes, so I refuse to buy BL Keys. Never have. So whenever I read threads like this where people purchase keys then complain, it fills me with rage and depression, because your activities are further encouraging them to pull more of this stupid RNG stuff in the future.

Let your money speak and stop buying keys PERIOD instead of buying keys and then crying about how you got nothing.

Svarty.8019:

Perhaps the RNG needs to be assisted (in certain circumstances) by a dose of certainty.

Example #1: If someone puts 1000 level 80 rare swords into the mystic forge, he gets a precursor anyway, regardless of what the RNG has given him. It gives people a target. There’s no way I’m going to gamble on a 0.001 chance normally, but with the certainty there, I’d grind towards it.

Example #2: Similarly, if someone opens 100 gem box things, they get a ticket regardless of whether they got another ticket earlier.

Is this too much to ask, and if so, why?

Final Fantasy 7: Crisis Core had a system like Example #1. Leveling up was random, but each time you didn’t level up after each fight the odds increased until it eventually hit 100%.

That would be super nice here

Sojar.1495:

It disappoints me that I am so discouraged by greedy business practices instead of the fun loving, eager to please ANET of yesteryear.

Exactly!

Geotherma.2395:

$300? I’m sorry I just can’t see this.. I know RNG is RNG but I got my first ticket on key 58. I did an additional 80 and ended up with 3. I too spend large amounts on the gem store for events and things, but $300 for keys is like 265 keys? I just can’t imagine the RNG gods hating someone so much. And on top of that, 265 keys HAD to of gotten you at least 50+ more keys making it over 300. Not calling liar here, but really… This for me is just hard to believe. This is why I always record my results.

You are in fact calling him a liar because of how repetitive you are about how hard to believe it is.

I opened 129 chests and have gotten 0 tickets before quitting, while knowing people who’ve gotten 1~2 tickets out of 5~10 chests.

Just because you were lucky with RNG to some extent, doesn’t ensure others are/will be as well.

Kurow.6973:

Sojar.1495:

It disappoints me that I am so discouraged by greedy business practices instead of the fun loving, eager to please ANET of yesteryear.

Exactly!

Geotherma.2395:

$300? I’m sorry I just can’t see this.. I know RNG is RNG but I got my first ticket on key 58. I did an additional 80 and ended up with 3. I too spend large amounts on the gem store for events and things, but $300 for keys is like 265 keys? I just can’t imagine the RNG gods hating someone so much. And on top of that, 265 keys HAD to of gotten you at least 50+ more keys making it over 300. Not calling liar here, but really… This for me is just hard to believe. This is why I always record my results.

You are in fact calling him a liar because of how repetitive you are about how hard to believe it is.

I opened 129 chests and have gotten 0 tickets before quitting, while knowing people who’ve gotten 1~2 tickets out of 5~10 chests.

Just because you were lucky with RNG to some extent, doesn’t ensure others are/will be as well.

I just prefer proof over statements. AS anyone can say “I spent X amount and got X amount.” That is all. On top of that some people start threads about how low drops are for X item, simply to try and change the market. And its not just player/player market, its possible with enough backing people could influence prices of Gem store items through forum threads over time. Which is not necessarily a bad thing. Also these people never mentioned what ELSE they got. Check the Egg thread where someone made the egg price rise. There are a ton of examples you can see over the forums of people doing this. Not saying thats what this is, or that they are lying, I’m simply skeptical and personally like proof over text.

I do agree the drop is low chance, and that RNG is a very funny thing though. But this is exactly why I see these skins as my “legendarys”, and will never feel the need to have any of the actual legendary skins.

2nd key – 1ticket

Spend 7 keys in the first day.

I bought and used 55 keys plus the handful returned from the chests. Sadly, I received no ticket.

Sojar.1495:

I’ve now dropped over $300 on getting a Fused weapon…

…ANET, this type of business model is amazing for your profitability. But you’ve just lost over $2,000 in just this fiscal year from me. I was going to continue to support the game via the Gem Store, but after being ripped off in such a massive way…

Or you could get hit by bus, lose your source of disposable income, or just plain get bored with the game and move on. There are a LOT of scenarios in which getting $300 NOW is a much better play than hopping for $2,000 over time. Expecially when some of those scenarios involve you forgiving them and going back to granting them some additional amount of money over the next year.

I invite you to change it to a purchasable item, and perhaps give those who spent innumerable amounts of complimentary ticket as compensation.

I have to wonder what your reaction would be if they did… to people who spent $400 on keys. Or are you assuming that whatever this theoretical cut off point is for 1 ticket gratis, you automatically qualify? I see plenty of people who would be just as kitten if the cut-off were $250 dollars, even thought you would be sitting pretty. And more than a few who would be wondering “Hey, I got mine after $100… should I get a gratis ticket too? Or was that drop from the boxes essentially a waste since anyone who spent as much as I did gets one in addition to the box drops?”

Pinla.7328:

I bought and used 55 keys plus the handful returned from the chests. Sadly, I received no ticket.

I’m sorry to hear this. Maybe they can add these directly to store or make them not account bound. Or something.

opened around 50 boxes with 35 keys.
got 0 token
Good thing that I did’nt use any real money except the keys pack I i did bought them on the last Black Friday from last year.

I really hope that there will be another. Put that booster and mysterious tonic to make high token yield box like Halloween.

111 boxes, still no token.

Still not sure on this. I know I won’t spend real money, but I’m on the fence over doing some key runs. Does anyone know how long we have to get the skins before they’re no longer in the chest?

mage.3570:

0 keys, 0 tickets, and am proud of myself.

I wish there were more like us

125 chests, and still no token.

I didn’t believe other people when they said they opened 100 chests, but now I do.

I’m planning to keep counting until I get my token and posting my reaction so that people know I’m not lying about this. Notice how originally I was optimistic? We can throw that out the window!

I pity you bro Update us

After 131 chests, this is how I feel like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlcqWQVVuU

I FINALLY GOT MY TICKET!!!!!!!!!

Trick was to stop opening it on my Warrior and open it on my Ranger like my friend did. I am now superstitious enough to believe Rangers get better drops and chests have DR when opened on the same toon.

So was it worth it? HELL YEAH! (Though I do not advise anyone make the same mistake as me.)

As promised, my storage:

Kain Francois.4328:

After 131 chests, this is how I feel like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlcqWQVVuU

I FINALLY GOT MY TICKET!!!!!!!!!

Trick was to stop opening it on my Warrior and open it on my Ranger like my friend did. I am now superstitious enough to believe Rangers get better drops and chests have DR when opened on the same toon.

So was it worth it? HELL YEAH! (Though I do not advise anyone make the same mistake as me.)

As promised, my storage:

You need a maid, badly :P