Guild Wars 2

Who’s keeping track and still counting the odds? Or counting and then calculating the odds. Whatever is more effective!
Thanks Asilithiel for the detailed list.

Ursan.7846:

So.

I have stated many, many, many, many times how the current system is stupid because you don’t have any other option of obtaining it.

That’s not a problem. We’re in complete and utter agreement if that is the case.

The problem, however, is not the randomness of the process but the fact that Anet offers only one method of obtaining this item.

if a grocery store sold “Mystery Bags Of Meat” that usually held a hamburger patty and very rarely a prime steak, and people were spending fifty to a hundred dollars for that steak sold nowhere but the mystery bag, I would question that grocery store’s ethics. Whose fault is it? Primarily the customer for being so stupid. But also the store for taking advantage of the people they knew would pay for the bags. I would not frequent that grocery store because I would find it distasteful and irritating.

The original quote. Here, you are railing against randomness, not the limitation of choices that Anet has given us. If your opinion is that randomness is predatory, I’ll call your opinion silly. Especially when when we’re looking at a case where we have consenting customers purchasing a chance at a purely cosmetic/luxury items.

I read the quote as going along essentially the same thing as what I think you are trying to get at as well – less about the randomness and more about the limitations of getting the item (as though the steak itself was soulbound, where if you got a steak you couldn’t share/give/sell that steak to others, as if it was a steak lottery). It looks to me like everyone really has the same complaint about it – not so much that its just RNG, but that its locked to only RNG, with no way of trading or selling (much the same reason I’m sure a bunch of us have a storage crate full of boosters with no real meaning to us anymore when we could gladly and more easily be giving them to our friends who just started to maximize their earnings).

‘Course, I didn’t read all the other pages, I came in here the first two pages or so then just decided to see if anyone updated the numbers provided by everyone (Technically speaking, through the two free keys and two chest-given keys, I can add that 4 chests thus far has given me 0 tickets), as although it’s not exactly a scientific research platform, I do find it interesting to see just how many other people have bad randomized luck such as me.

Asilithiel.7928:

204 keys, got my first ticket in the last batch.

165 of those were bought (~315g) , 1 was from claw island, and the other 38 were recycled from the chest drops.

In total, the drops were:
1 fused weapon claim ticket
1 minis 3-pack (set 1)
6 black lion salvage kit
2 total makeover kit
3 self-style hair kit
25 small guild discovery
14 medium guild discovery
12 large guild discovery
50 transmutation crystals (10 stacks of 5)
62 unidentified dyes (19 stacks of 2, 24 stacks of 1)
3 dye packs
85 heavy bag of coins (774.13 silver)
8 black lion mining pick
10 black lion logging axe
6 black lion harvesting sickle
29 bank access express
23 instant repair canisters
19 merchant express
15 revive orbs
30 trading post express
18 armor boosters
15 crafting boosters
16 experience boosters
13 karma boosters
19 killstreak experience boosters
24 magic find boosters
13 pvp glory booster
24 rejuvenation boosters
25 speed boosters
17 strength boosters
2 booster multipacks (karma, magic find, experience)
129 mystery tonics (43 stacks of 3)
38 black lion chest key (used)

That’s about 18,000 gems or 220$ USD for a weapon skin. Odds are about 0.5% according to your sample size.

Ursan.7846:

The original quote. Here, you are railing against randomness, not the limitation of choices that Anet has given us. If your opinion is that randomness is predatory, I’ll call your opinion silly. Especially when when we’re looking at a case where we have consenting customers purchasing a chance at a purely cosmetic/luxury items.

You’re boiling it down too far, stripping it of nuance and shades of grey in favor of rendering it starkly in black-and-white. Everyone knows perfectly well what they’re getting into when they enter the trading card game; buying boosters at a set price and hoping to expand their collection, nab the rares, sell or trade the surplus. It’s a quantifiable market with price lists and expectations that are set.

This is not like that; this is customers being duped into spending money with an expectation of eventually getting what they’re seeking. No percentage, no alternate (on that we agree), nothing but dropping money and hope. How many people would have dropped hundreds of dollars if they knew they had a .00004% chance of getting a skin? More than I’d think, but less than if they publicized the probability. And that crosses the line from oh-fun-a-surprise-gift into a greedy, unethical money grab. The more people who blindly threw money down (tsk on them, their fault, they did it) the more profit made. As always, in my own opinion, which I am perfectly comfortable having called silly. I don’t believe in moral relativism either, so I feel free in calling this unethical. I didn’t make up the “evil” test terminology, that was their baby and something they referred to numerous times.

Interesting drops from 34 chests:
4x BLC Key (drops included)
2x BL Salvage Kit
20x Transmutation Crystals
1x Mini 3-Pack (dropped the same blue mini twice and one green…)
1x Self-Style Hair Kit
1x Total Makeover Kit
1x Endless Mystery Tonic (Furniture, can’t even move…)
0x Fused Weapon Ticket

Fused weapon ticket after 20 keys. Love it

276 chests, finally got one…

munkiman.3068:

276 chests, finally got one…

Ow. That hurt just to read. I’m doing key runs because of posts like this. At least I’m just wasting time and not money. :/

50+ Keys no weapon skin :\

I did maybe 120 chests tonight. 3 pack of minis and an endless mystery tonic were the only interesting things in there. No tickets.

About 50 chests opened. 2 tickets.

And a pink Quaggan backpack.. The real prize :P

150$ worth of gems.. all on chests… not one fused ticket… that’s got to be like 60-70+ chests

I think i got best luck here with 1 key drop from mobs and just take ticket ;)

Well I haven’t been counting the amount of chests i’ve opened, but i’d say roughly 12 over the past 3 weeks with free keys and out of those I have received 2 fused tickets

Sad thing is, we’ll prolly see the fused tickets as rewards for the final battle of flame and frost…

I got a key from personal story ‘Claw Island’, opened the chest and got a ticket. RNG usually hates me. That’s why I refused to buy keys in the first place.

Update: Have done 170 chests. Got a dye pack and pets out of the last set. Still 0 Fused Tickets.

Update: still 0 chests opened. Actually I’m quite proud of myself for resisting the temptation

OmniPotentes.4817:

Update: still 0 chests opened. Actually I’m quite proud of myself for resisting the temptation

I’m proud of you too – I gave in and bought 5 keys when I bought my pickaxe. No ticket.

A couple of small/medium guild discoveries, three keys (which I used), 2 bank expresses, rejuvenation booster, magic find booster, speed booster, armor booster, kill streak (bah), crafting booster, black lion tool (axe I think, don’t remember), and some cash. I don’t feel ripped off, but 5 purchased keys is my limit.

14 key runs, 17 keys. No tickets. Bunch of misc. boosters, mini pack, 2 sets of dyes, etc..

Update: Still at 0 keys purchased.

Got 2 keys doing story-mode but got nothing nice, still very proud of myself though.

Gasoline.2570:

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

You’re having a field day aren’t you. I rather have see nobody post if it’s just you and these half-witted prove-you-wrong jokes just for your own little pleasure in this little interwebs market of yours. Oh it’s so fascinating. Proceed my sheep, continue the markets!

The only way to win this particular game is if you refuse to play.

RedJoker.4206:

Keys = 5
Tickets = 1

I find it kinda funny that people go gambling for the weapon, then when they lose they get upset with the game. Don’t rage quit because YOU were silly enough to throw fortunes at this. Have we not learned about how punishing gambling can be from MF? It’s quite literally the same as throwing a tantrum at a roulette because you picked the wrong number time and time again.

Gambling addicts always do this – the ones who pause for a moment to consider their odds of winning before placing a bet will realize they have almost no chance of hitting the jackpot and will back off. The ones who go ahead and keep placing bets have some belief system in which they have convinced themselves that THIS TIME is THE ONE that will pay for all the previous failures.

Rule #1: Do not gamble with anything you cannot afford to lose.

50 chests opened. Not a single token. I did however get a boatload of those extremely useful merchant/bank expresses, so looks like my gold was well spent.

Ursan.7846:

Gasoline.2570:

Enough repetition and they will. Might. Hopefully.

What’s there to not understand?

Because there’s evidence that despite the “I hate RNG” sentiments that goes around, the same people STILL spend money on it.

Anet has actual sales figures. That they’ve been repeating the random-boxes has to mean that those sales models are very successful as opposed to Wintersday’s non-random purchase model. They’re not doing this just purely to spite customers. No, they’re doing it because it’s (most likely) profitable.

It’s human nature, backed up by thousands of years of history. Just look at flowers – I find the explosion of dandelions every year to be a beautiful sign of spring, but because they grow everywhere they are considered to be weeds, not beautiful flowers. There’s a plant that is very rare and expensive, highly prized because it only produces a flower once every ten years or so – and it smells like rotting flesh. Why would someone want such a thing instead of a field of dandelions? Because it’s rare, and expensive, and therefore they feel special because they have one. You can find dandelions everywhere, so they are not special.

Anet could send every character in the game a note in the mail like they do for the new chapters of the F&F story – hey this is your mentor, here’s your share of the spoils of war (attached ticket for fused weapon skin). Problem solved, everyone gets at least one weapon skin. But if they did this, everyone would have one and they wouldn’t be special.

Because they wouldn’t be special, no one would care about them.

Oh, and for your statistical analysis: Bought 0 keys, opened 0 chests, got 0 skins. I’m not playing the game you can’t win.

Nike.2631:

Astral Projections.7320:

They did say rare. But there’s rare and there’s RARE. They should let the buyers know the odds. It’s one thing to gamble for 1 in 10 odds, another for 1 in 100. People are entitled to know which it is before they spend their money. It’s odd, and somewhat suspicious, that ANet refuses to let the buyers know what the drop rate is.

They have told us drop rates at least once – for Final Rest.

…1 in 2000.

“Rare” does in fact mean “Rare”. Like, completely not kidding “rare”.

You’re not talking about a couple dozen people playing the odds here, there are literally millions of accounts and hundreds of thousands of people doing various in-game activities every day. A 1% chance is 1 drop in 100 attempts. Even at that rate, you’re talking about thousands of drops happening every day. How “rare” would an item be if 1000 were added to the TP every day for a month? Very quickly every person who really wanted one would get it and the demand for such items would drop to nothing.

FallenTear.3710:

I think i got best luck here with 1 key drop from mobs and just take ticket

Same thing happened to me last night at around the same location. I got a key off of a random zombie during the packheart escort from caer shadowfain on my zero magic find warrior and got a fused weapon ticket for free. I have never bought keys before.

Now I just have to decide if I want the greatsword for the warrior or the dagger for my ele. I never bothered thinking it through because of how they are attained, I just wrote all the skins off as unattainable.

I had saved up 51 keys so I decided to finally use them. 51 keys ended up opening 72 chests. I got 1 claim ticket. Total money spent buying keys $0.

Lv 12 alt, got one chest from a mob and 1 key from daily. Boom got one. Game has been giving with colossus fang recipe ( which I guess is really rare) and now this from one key. Just need a Pre cursor now lol

320 Chests (including recycles)
4 Tickets
Separate Day
124 Chests (including recycles)
1 Ticket

….broke (gold wise)

I opened 7 chests and got a ticket. It’s all in the wrist.

bought 5 keys today and got a ticket . never bought keys before also.

As i mentioned earlier I opened about 270 chests before getting a ticket, yesterday i opened one when i got a key as a reward and got another one… Just my luck i guess.

So, I got another key from story today…so, after 133 chests………still no ticket.

Deciding to not spend any more $ for ANet was a wise decision it seems.

munkiman.3068:

As i mentioned earlier I opened about 270 chests before getting a ticket, yesterday i opened one when i got a key as a reward and got another one… Just my luck i guess.

Just out of curiosity, how much gold did that cost you?

Astral Projections.7320:

munkiman.3068:

As i mentioned earlier I opened about 270 chests before getting a ticket, yesterday i opened one when i got a key as a reward and got another one… Just my luck i guess.

Just out of curiosity, how much gold did that cost you?

I bought all my gems with cash. So about 150 USD. I’m actually fine with it, but i am pretty sure i won’t do it again. I’m not a big gambler (might play the lotto once a year), but i do use a lot of the stuff out of the chests (boosters, kits and the like). I did get both backpacks too, along with makeover stuff. Not that i have any desire to make over any of my toons, but i might at some point.

My biggest gripe isn’t even rng, it’s that you have no other option to acquire these skins, as i mentioned before.

munkiman.3068:

Astral Projections.7320:

munkiman.3068:

As i mentioned earlier I opened about 270 chests before getting a ticket, yesterday i opened one when i got a key as a reward and got another one… Just my luck i guess.

Just out of curiosity, how much gold did that cost you?

I bought all my gems with cash. So about 150 USD. I’m actually fine with it, but i am pretty sure i won’t do it again. I’m not a big gambler (might play the lotto once a year), but i do use a lot of the stuff out of the chests (boosters, kits and the like). I did get both backpacks too, along with makeover stuff. Not that i have any desire to make over any of my toons, but i might at some point.

My biggest gripe isn’t even rng, it’s that you have no other option to acquire these skins, as i mentioned before.

Yeah, that’s the problem with RNG. While some may get it on one it two tries, others will be at the far right hand side of the Bell Curve. It’s unfun to pay a large amount, with RL money or game money and not be able to get what you wanted. They should at least allow you to sell the items you get.

Bought 5 keys with gold. Got my ticket on the 5th chest

Solo.9027:

FallenTear.3710:

I think i got best luck here with 1 key drop from mobs and just take ticket

Same thing happened to me last night at around the same location. I got a key off of a random zombie during the packheart escort from caer shadowfain on my zero magic find warrior and got a fused weapon ticket for free. I have never bought keys before.

Now I just have to decide if I want the greatsword for the warrior or the dagger for my ele. I never bothered thinking it through because of how they are attained, I just wrote all the skins off as unattainable.

KEYS STILL DROP FROM MOBS?

News to me, I can wear enough magic find to choke a horse and have 1 t6 mat to show from an hour of farming. >:C

Edit: 30 or so keys, finally got 1 ticket.

funny thing is I have a guildie who claimed he when through 50 chests without getting a ticket just on 1 key… i’m almost glad he didn’t.

Anet seems to have chests drop keys almost as a way to tease us. “sorry, try again”

I got one on my 2nd chest after my 2nd map completion key.

A guildie got one after 90 keys.

I used a few keys earlier this month via gold > gems.

I was tempted to go buy more for a ticket but after skimming this thread I’m thinking.

“No A-net, You don’t get more of my money.” Maybe I’ll buy your endless pickaxe or somthing, but if I’m not guaranteed a skin for atleast 20 bucks I’m not bothering.

bravoart.5308:

Solo.9027:

FallenTear.3710:

I think i got best luck here with 1 key drop from mobs and just take ticket

Same thing happened to me last night at around the same location. I got a key off of a random zombie during the packheart escort from caer shadowfain on my zero magic find warrior and got a fused weapon ticket for free. I have never bought keys before.

Now I just have to decide if I want the greatsword for the warrior or the dagger for my ele. I never bothered thinking it through because of how they are attained, I just wrote all the skins off as unattainable.

KEYS STILL DROP FROM MOBS?

News to me, I can wear enough magic find to choke a horse and have 1 t6 mat to show from an hour of farming. >:C

Edit: 30 or so keys, finally got 1 ticket.

I hadn’t gotten a key since doing map completion ages ago. I also never wear magic find gear anymore and recently finished my legendary a couple weeks ago.

FYI ppl this is ANEt way of makeing money… is GEM store with masive buying on Keys its makeing them money and unlucky ppl keep buying

I have Twilight on my Main so no need of for these but my buddy got his Ticket for his greatsword on the 1st Key he used.. its all RNG ppl

Got a ticket off my first chest that I got a key for with gold.

Works for me.

I know this has been beaten to death and that I am a sucker for spending so much on stupid RNG chest skin but…

95USD dollars on gems. +6g to buy gems. Got 1 ticket on last chest. Started out saying to myself 20 bucks on gems and hope I get a ticket. Got to the point that I didn’t care how much it was until I got one. My own fault for supporting it I know but at one point I said to myself how much more money is RNG going to suck from my pockets. The answer was 95 bucks in total. lol

I love the skin but it wasn’t worth 95 bucks. Thankfully I can see I am not alone in this, and that many of us don’t care for this type of cash shop.

Semi thankful that Rox and Brahm’s Weapons will be buyable straight up.

347 Attempts – No Ticket. LMAO – GG ArenaNET

P.S> I still love this game!

i rapidly opened 17 chests on a row, i dont know wich of those it came out

Guys, I bought a lottery ticket for five dollars with a chance to win 120,000,000$ and lost.

This is obviously unfair RNG. They should nerf it down to about… 50% win. That seems more fair, it makes it POSSIBLE for us to win. Right, guise?