These two minis were introduced as Black Lion Chests drops for the living story where the new Twilight Arbor Aetherblade path was released on October 1st.
Since that time these minis have been continuously dropping from BLCs at a relatively high rate and have saturated the market to the point where people who are interested in the collectable are no longer buying it on the Trading Post.
The minis are now being used due to their relatively low cost as a gambling chip for exotic minis in the Mystic Forge. Considering how careful I have observed ANET’s behavior to be regarding keeping seemingly innocuous items from having massive effects on the economy, it is confusing to me how these minis (I was gone for this but I heard it happened before with the Holographic Risen Knight) can still be put into the Mystic Forge. Especially since the Holographic Risen Knight supposedly had its rarity changed specifically for this reason.
I understand since the announcement of elimination of Set 1 mini packs that there has been a large amount of speculation and resulting price shifting among Set 1 and certain other minis; sometimes as much as 500%. However, the insane depreciation in value of the majority of trade-able rare and exotic minis is now due in large part to the presence of a massive, largely undesired supply of Mini Holo Scarlets and Caithes.
The main reason that I can confidently make this claim regarding these 2 minis having a now overwhelming effect on the larger mini market is that the effects can now be seen in every single trade-able rare/exotic mini from Set 1 and 2 as well as certain Special Category minis with recipes (Mini Steamrider etc). You can now make a mystic forge bet using rare minis for a chance at an exotic mini for ~12g using Caithe/Holo Scarlet. This is a fine market mechanism for bringing the majority of exotic minis closer to the 60g mark (the average cost of an exotic return in the 1 in 5 Mystic forge on a 12g bet). However, the drops in price we are seeing is reaching exotic set prices that haven’t existed since October of last year.
In attempts to create these coveted and “no longer available” Set 1 exotics, Set 2 exotics (less desirable byproducts) are down to 30g. “Failed” gambles with rare results are causing Set 2 rares to drop below 3g. Minis made with recipes including Set minis have dropped to 16g as of today but that is only because they are lagging behind the dropping cost of their components and will likely drop to 10g in the coming weeks. Minis are depreciating by as much as 4 gold per day since the day of mini Scaret/Caithe introduction (see Mini Enraged Twisted Nightmare).
I fear this may be interpreted as a thread whining about the dropping value of items in my collection or devaluation in the economy. That is not the point I am making.
Please consider that Mini Holo Scarlet and Caithe were introduced as BLC drops 4 living stories ago. Since that time they have continued to drop at a high rate and are still usable in the Mystic Forge. This is having a drastic effect on the mini economy simply due to the sheer volume of these minis coming from daily opened BLC. For some people a wild excess of this mini is no doubt leaving what they see as little other option than to put them in the Mystic Forge.
Please consider changing the rarity of these minis or reducing their availability so that their Mystic Forge mechanic does not continue to contribute so significantly to trade-able mini prices.