I expected the price to fall with the loot increase, was a bit surprised it actually incrased for a moment after the patch, but naturally people spent ectos on ascended gear before the increased drop rates kicked in. Also glad the price of Onyx Lodestones slowly drops.
Last night ecto dipped into the 28s range, I wonder if it will rebound with the weekend influx gobbling up cheaper supply or dip even lower due to more of an increase in supply from that very influx of players.
I still need to buy around 150 for my legendary(among other things) but i’m pretty spent from finishing might/magic before this week’s patch anticipating T6 salvage increases. I’m glad I waited on ecto, it dropped like 10s so far…
I keep getting the feeling the only reason it has stayed so high is from power traders trying to artificially keep prices high by buying up low stock and reposting it high. It is a very interesting spectacle to watch, but I’m just going to wait for the market to stop fluctuating.
After all speculation is one of the main reasons you can lose or gain gold, so it is a risky play to expect globs to bounce back to 38s, but if you are right you could make decent money. I wouldn’t since I prefer playing safe.
I would like to point out something.
Ecto price has been tanking and will keep on falling.
Why is it a good thing?
If ecto prices falls then crafting a legendary will be cheaper; so their prices on TP will fall, as there will be more available.
Only people who try to maintain ecto price are actually sinking their gold to limit on the heavy loss that their are going to have as I predict ecto will naturally be priced between 10s to 15s per piece in the next 15days.
I am selling daily 25 to 50 ecto depends on what I dropped during my play time and how lucky i have been salvaging; overall it’s right moment to make gold for sure… Thanks to buyers :p
Im hoping this may lead to some issues with legendarys being inaccessable to casuals. I thnk there is way too much grind involved in them for anyone. Im hoping the precursors are dropping more now since more people are doing these missions that drop them!
Oand yeah, looks like globs are down about 9 silver since the patch.
I think all of these “it should be about X” statements are wishful thinking. Their cost is govererned by the actions of hundreds of thousands, not the opinions of any individual. Presure on the the price responds to basically every endgame gold-tap in the game. Changes to dungeons will be reflected in ecto price. People taking an evening off to watch a big game on tv will be reflected in the ecto price. It also floats on the aftereffects of the gold sinks. …A gem store sale pulling kilotons of gold coins out of the economy will be refleced in a sudden, temporary scarcity of buyers…
“You keep saying ‘its unfair.’
I wonder what your basis for comparison is…”
- Jareth, King of Goblins.
I would like to point out something.
Ecto price has been tanking and will keep on falling.
Why is it a good thing?
If ecto prices falls then crafting a legendary will be cheaper; so their prices on TP will fall, as there will be more available.
Only people who try to maintain ecto price are actually sinking their gold to limit on the heavy loss that their are going to have as I predict ecto will naturally be priced between 10s to 15s per piece in the next 15days.
I am selling daily 25 to 50 ecto depends on what I dropped during my play time and how lucky i have been salvaging; overall it’s right moment to make gold for sure… Thanks to buyers :p
It’s a good thing because instead of spending 30 gold on switching/trying out an entirely new set of gear, I can craft it for 12 gold like it was during December prices (probably more like 20 gold but still).
I love the idea of experimenting with new builds, and I don’t want to spend 30 gold refitting a character just to realize it was a bad build. I’m not saying 10s is a good price range, but 40s was most definitely not a good price range.
For a lot of people it is difficult to get gold, and I think it is a good thing to keep ectos cheap enough so more people can access them.
Read how I defined a success, click on the salvage study that I linked, click the results tab and let me know what you find. I’m using the best data that I could find, which indicates that the probability is closer to 75%. If you have better data, please provide.
The sample size is too small for BLSKs to get anything resembling a correct drop rate. In absence of at least a thousand data points, I’m going to trust that the stated 50% on the tool tip is in fact accurate, unless a dev says otherwise.
Aaah, it’s the old “you need a bajillion trials to get an answer” misunderstanding.
Let’s do it this way
…
Well said, but the self-selection bias punches a considerable hole in your argument. There is no guarantee that the sample data you have is representative of the actual salvage rates, as there is a very real possibility that the results of a salvage affects the probability of the salvager reporting those results.
You certainly refute the “bajillion trials” argument, but still cannot prove beyond reasonable doubt that the success rate of Ectos from BLTK is != 50%. However, crude kits having produced Ectos certainly disprove the idea that the Ecto rate is the same as the rare material rate.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
Yes. You were actually unlucky. You usually get a rare from them now. (Something yellow at least, it might be junk like sapphire orbs).
It’s more common to get two rares from a chest now than it was to get 1 pre patch.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
Yes. You were actually unlucky. You usually get a rare from them now. (Something yellow at least, it might be junk like sapphire orbs).
It’s more common to get two rares from a chest now than it was to get 1 pre patch.
Rare gem? I got a uncommon blue gem myself and one of the other guy who replied said, “not to brag but <links blue gem>.”
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
For some reason the Destroyer doesn’t seem to drop as good loot as the other DE chests. Bit odd.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
But all those things take time. The Jormag event takes an eternity. Even with dragon timers, there are still hordes of players waiting around for Teq and Shatt to start for 10+ minutes. All this reduces your rares-per-hour, and totally tanks your gold farm in general.
Cursed Shore (on my server at least) has been basically abandoned due to more Champ and Vet spawns since the patch. I used to be able to make quite a few rares per hour just hanging around Penitent / Shelter / Jofast. It’s much more difficult to do that now.
I’m starting to think that this patch didn’t increase the number of rares being farmed as much as it seemed initially.
Stinky Garbage, Engineer. Meatbag, Guardian. Dum Dums, Elementalist.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
But all those things take time. The Jormag event takes an eternity. Even with dragon timers, there are still hordes of players waiting around for Teq and Shatt to start for 10+ minutes. All this reduces your rares-per-hour, and totally tanks your gold farm in general.
Cursed Shore (on my server at least) has been basically abandoned due to more Champ and Vet spawns since the patch. I used to be able to make quite a few rares per hour just hanging around Penitent / Shelter / Jofast. It’s much more difficult to do that now.
I’m starting to think that this patch didn’t increase the number of rares being farmed as much as it seemed initially.
exactly…it all takes time – if you are farming big events you are not farming Orr…
The low-level events of Fire Elemental, Maw, and Behemoth takes no time at all.
The biggest culprits are Maw and Fire Elemental, since they have like a 30-minute respawn timer. Which makes it incredibly easy to find a server to guest to where those events are about to happen.
As can be seen from the ecto price crash, numbers of rares in the economy have DEFINITELY increased.
It depends on how elastic the demand for ectos is. For example, at 30s a pop many people could decide that the ascended back piece is not worth the effort. It may be that at 25s the number of people who go after the back piece skyrockets absorbing all of the additional ectos.
Anything I post is just the opinion of a very vocal minority of 1.
The low-level events of Fire Elemental, Maw, and Behemoth takes no time at all.
The biggest culprits are Maw and Fire Elemental, since they have like a 30-minute respawn timer. Which makes it incredibly easy to find a server to guest to where those events are about to happen.
As can be seen from the ecto price crash, numbers of rares in the economy have DEFINITELY increased.
We’ll see. I think that market is still sorting the patch out.
Since the initial sell-off, which was obviously driven more by guesses about the future of ectos than by an actual increase in farmed rares (only a handful of rare-guaranteed dragons had even spawned at that point), the price has only dropped about 3s. I suspect it will rebound slowly.
In any event, I think people thought ectos would truly tank. They’ve only fallen about 7s or 8s since pre-patch. A serious drop, yes. But people on these boards had been predicting ectos in the teens.
Stinky Garbage, Engineer. Meatbag, Guardian. Dum Dums, Elementalist.
I passed by Maw yesterday while doing my dailies. Wasnt in time for the event but I saw one player linking a single rare and the rest saying he is lucky. ..
The low-level events of Fire Elemental, Maw, and Behemoth takes no time at all.
The biggest culprits are Maw and Fire Elemental, since they have like a 30-minute respawn timer. Which makes it incredibly easy to find a server to guest to where those events are about to happen.
As can be seen from the ecto price crash, numbers of rares in the economy have DEFINITELY increased.
The number of rares sold before patch was hovering at 12k total. Now it has increased to 35k. There is no way people could farm so much and so fast within the short period of time so the increase can only mean one thing; investors are dumping their stock.
I passed by Maw yesterday while doing my dailies. Wasnt in time for the event but I saw one player linking a single rare and the rest saying he is lucky. ..
Exotic you mean. Rares are 100% or extremely close to it.
Toons: Foreseer, Geikamir, Rapscallion, Specimen, Scythian, Zeau, Ärtifact, and Replica.
The number of rares sold before patch was hovering at 12k total. Now it has increased to 35k. There is no way people could farm so much and so fast within the short period of time so the increase can only mean one thing; investors are dumping their stock.
You shouldn’t make assumptions like this, they aren’t necessarily true. Many times I’ve expressed how massive this market is, and that the orders don’t represent supply or velocity.
The number of rares sold before patch was hovering at 12k total. Now it has increased to 35k. There is no way people could farm so much and so fast within the short period of time so the increase can only mean one thing; investors are dumping their stock.
You shouldn’t make assumptions like this, they aren’t necessarily true. Many times I’ve expressed how massive this market is, and that the orders don’t represent supply or velocity.
Sry I dont mean rare. I meant ectos. Plus that is not just it. I noticed that ectos sold were by larg3 batches, like 250 to 2000 ectos occupying a single price. This further proves my point that it is jist investors dumping stock as no one can farm out 2000 ectos overnight. But these are just the noob traders. Intelligent ones like myself dump in small random stacks at different prices so that it wont cause panic selling.
I passed by Maw yesterday while doing my dailies. Wasnt in time for the event but I saw one player linking a single rare and the rest saying he is lucky. ..
Exotic you mean. Rares are 100% or extremely close to it.
I passed by Maw yesterday while doing my dailies. Wasnt in time for the event but I saw one player linking a single rare and the rest saying he is lucky. ..
Exotic you mean. Rares are 100% or extremely close to it.
Nope I meant rare.
1. I’m pretty sure the maw has a virtually 100% rare drop for participating.
2. When I said those assumptions aren’t necessarily true, I meant they aren’t true. Over 10,000 unique sellers of ectos in the last 24 hours alone. What you are seeing is a supply shift, not an push up the supply curve.
I passed by Maw yesterday while doing my dailies. Wasnt in time for the event but I saw one player linking a single rare and the rest saying he is lucky. ..
Exotic you mean. Rares are 100% or extremely close to it.
Nope I meant rare.
1. I’m pretty sure the maw has a virtually 100% rare drop for participating.
2. When I said those assumptions aren’t necessarily true, I meant they aren’t true. Over 10,000 unique sellers of ectos in the last 24 hours alone. What you are seeing is a supply shift, not an push up the supply curve.
John, you say there is a 100% chance of rare for maw but I that is really what I heard when I zoned in. Also why is rare rate for maw 100% but mega destroyer not? Im very sure I didnt get a rare out of that. There must be a reason.
For ectos I see nice round numbers of large stacks sold, meaning a single seller did it. It may be that there are 10k unique sellers a day as you say but they sell in small quantities and vanish quickly.
Ok heres a suggestion. Everyone do a chest event and during the event ask around if everyone did indeed get a rare.
And post your findings here, including what you get.
i would say 100% doesn’t mean a guarantee for a drop, after all there can be more than one drop at a time too. so if one person gets two and the other person gets none, that evens out to 100%.
I am an avid penitent shelter farmer too. I get between 2 to 4 rares per hour farming there. With the patch that introduces tough mobs much less people are farming there. I think the actual supply of ectos are about the same as it balances out the chest drop increase.
And I farm grenth too. Not the chest but the ice elementals. Post grenth buff patch. Lots of people farm grenth and deliberately fail the event to farm the mobs. I think the chest drop balances that too.
IMO they will jump back to 40s as soon as a new item utilising them comes out – stock up kids
Wait, what? The new Ascended accessories from the laurel vendor cost 40 laurels plus 50 ecto. Don’t get me started on the back items. I have level 80 characters in rare armor because it takes so much ectoplasm to craft exotics. And then there’s all the high-end cosmetic stuff that I haven’t even bothered looking at.
How many new items do you need? I think they’re needed enough as it is, and I welcome this change in rare drop rates. If a “new item” comes out that utilizes ectoplasm, it will probably not require more than a stack. Given the number of ecto currently needed to fully outfit a character in the best gear available, I doubt it’ll be that big a change in demand. I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure my thoughts would be, “Oh! Another thing to add to the list of items I can make in a year or so when all my characters are level 80 in full exotics.”
“It is the stupidest children who are the most childish
and the stupidest grown-ups who are the most grown-up.”
- C. S. Lewis
Given the number of ecto currently needed to fully outfit a character in the best gear available, I doubt it’ll be that big a change in demand. I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure my thoughts would be, “Oh! Another thing to add to the list of items I can make in a year or so when all my characters are level 80 in full exotics.”
The thing is that, since the addition of exotic trinkets to the Orr karma vendors, the amount of ecto needed to fully outfit a character in the best gear of the game is 0.
I know of a few people who, when they saw the result from the post patch loot system, took all the ecto they had banked and put them on the TP. They thought that if they could sell at the 35s and plus price of the time and buy them back when the price droped to under 25s, they would stand to make a nice profit. I wouldn’t be surprised if quite a few people thought of that.
So when the ecto price reachs an equilibrium, we might end up seeing a slight raise in the price afterward as the supply that came in from the speculators gets smaller and smaller while the supply comming from chest events becomes more stable. Now how much of a raise that would be is what I’m really curious about at this point.
IMO they will jump back to 40s as soon as a new item utilising them comes out – stock up kids
Wait, what? The new Ascended accessories from the laurel vendor cost 40 laurels plus 50 ecto. Don’t get me started on the back items. I have level 80 characters in rare armor because it takes so much ectoplasm to craft exotics. And then there’s all the high-end cosmetic stuff that I haven’t even bothered looking at.
How many new items do you need? I think they’re needed enough as it is, and I welcome this change in rare drop rates. If a “new item” comes out that utilizes ectoplasm, it will probably not require more than a stack. Given the number of ecto currently needed to fully outfit a character in the best gear available, I doubt it’ll be that big a change in demand. I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure my thoughts would be, “Oh! Another thing to add to the list of items I can make in a year or so when all my characters are level 80 in full exotics.”
The ascended accessories alone would hardly make a dent in the ecto price. If it cost just ectos, sure, but the 40 laurels is a huge hinderance to buying it. I don’t think there is any reasonable player out there who would waste 40 laurels on an accessory that you could get cheaply by doing guild missions.
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I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
Hydra queen drops rares for lvl 40 even if you are at lvl 80. Therefore you have to erase the Hydra Queen from the list since lvl 42 rares don’t give ectos.
I am an avid penitent shelter farmer too. I get between 2 to 4 rares per hour farming there. With the patch that introduces tough mobs much less people are farming there. I think the actual supply of ectos are about the same as it balances out the chest drop increase.
And I farm grenth too. Not the chest but the ice elementals. Post grenth buff patch. Lots of people farm grenth and deliberately fail the event to farm the mobs. I think the chest drop balances that too.
I can get 6-8 rares from Champ chests an hour. I also severely doubt there were enough players, pre-patch, farming Orr to cause 10+ sec skill delay and overflow servers.
Even if the rares per hours are the same between Orr farming and Champ chests, Champ Chests are far more accessible, less grindy, and doesn’t require constant activity throughout the hour. Because of this, the amount of participation in Champ Chests now FAR exceeds the amount of participation pre-patch in Orr, thus the rares generated far exceed the number pre-patch.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
14. Modnirr war King Ulgoth (before him not after.)
15. Any JP chest of splendid or better.
Yumiko Emi Ishida 80 Ele, Hikari Kyoko Ishida 80 Guard TC-NA. Active RPer of NA megaserver.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
But all those things take time. The Jormag event takes an eternity. Even with dragon timers, there are still hordes of players waiting around for Teq and Shatt to start for 10+ minutes. All this reduces your rares-per-hour, and totally tanks your gold farm in general.
Cursed Shore (on my server at least) has been basically abandoned due to more Champ and Vet spawns since the patch. I used to be able to make quite a few rares per hour just hanging around Penitent / Shelter / Jofast. It’s much more difficult to do that now.
I’m starting to think that this patch didn’t increase the number of rares being farmed as much as it seemed initially.
you’re doing it very wrong if you are at any one of those events for more then 2 minutes. The only events worth staying for the whole time are the temple events due to the massive quantities of loot they drop. If the timers line up I can usually hit about 8 events an hour which nets me about 10-12 rares in that hour. I doubt anyone was doing that well pre-patch.
The limiting factor on these events is how early they go into overflow, not how long they actually take.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
14. Modnirr war King Ulgoth (before him not after.)
15. Any JP chest of splendid or better.
Does that mean the borderland JP’s drop rares now? I haven’t tried them since the patch.
I did the destroyer event chest run yesterday. There were like a hundred players involved. I got greens and blues at the end. I asked around if anyone got anything good. Only two replied that they got crap drops. If someone got all rares I expect them to yell in chat but no one did. Did rare drop rate really increase?
The megadestroyer and Arah chests did not get buffed for some reason. They still only drop blues.
Here is a list of chests that have a >90% chance of dropping a rare:
So each character can get at least 13 additional rares a day over what they could before the patch. I usually get closer to 20 a day now. I’ve gotten 100 ectos since the patch playing only casually.
14. Modnirr war King Ulgoth (before him not after.)
15. Any JP chest of splendid or better.
Are you guys happy with where ecto prices are at right now? Do you think it’s sustainable?
I would be happy at 20s but i like 28 more than 42. When the price was so high i was selling rather than stocking now sub 30 i dont feel so bad throwing ectos into the magic toilet for clovers.
Sustainable at an even lower price, sure there are things like legendaries that consume a large chunk of ectos but you would think the bigger use is people equiping lvl 80s as there are more 80’s farming and fewer new80’s the supply/demand ratio will shift add in the loot changes and yes i think a lower price is here to stay.
This is ofcourse all an opinion for facts you need to be sending boxes of cookies to JS
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