Fractals only give 2 rings?

Fractals only give 2 rings?

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Posted by: Derigar.7810

Derigar.7810

Is this true? I only get the ones in said attached file.
I’m hoping to get a Berserker ring sometime soon, but it seems like prestine relics will be the way to buy it.

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

It’s not true, fractals give most ring stat combos. It’s just an RNG nightmare as to which one you get.

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Posted by: TheFantasticGman.9451

TheFantasticGman.9451

RNG is RNG is RNG

Sometimes it gives, most of the time it doesn’t.

Speaking from a PVE-only point of view…

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Is this true? I only get the ones in said attached file.
I’m hoping to get a Berserker ring sometime soon, but it seems like prestine relics will be the way to buy it.

Pretty sure their RNG is complete crap because many times you’ll get doubles of the same ring even though the chances of that happening are really low statistically.

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Posted by: Derigar.7810

Derigar.7810

So from 5 ring drops, I got only 2 types…

That’s pretty rare if you people are saying it’s “RNG”. From what I’m seeing, it’s not RNG. If my next ring will be either one of those two, then my account might just be glitched?

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Posted by: Seera.5916

Seera.5916

So from 5 ring drops, I got only 2 types…

That’s pretty rare if you people are saying it’s “RNG”. From what I’m seeing, it’s not RNG. If my next ring will be either one of those two, then my account might just be glitched?

You really haven’t had enough rings to determine if your account is truly bugged.

You may be an outlier though. And with all RNG systems, outliers will occur (either really good ring drops or really bad ring drops). And again, not enough data points to really say one way or another. It doesn’t prove you are an outlier, but it doesn’t prove you aren’t one either.

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Posted by: Ragion.2831

Ragion.2831

a bugged account, is that possible?

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Posted by: Mortifer.2946

Mortifer.2946

Bugged?.. hardly.. just RNG.. I got these shinies.. And it is true that I did not have enough luck with zerker ones. I bought them through pristine relics.

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Posted by: Sorin.4310

Sorin.4310

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

This might make you think something must be bugged, but considering literally millions of daily bonus chests have been opened, statistically, there should be other people in the same boat as you. Are you a statistical outlier? Yeah definitely. Are you bugged? No probably not.

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

This might make you think something must be bugged, but considering literally millions of daily bonus chests have been opened, statistically, there should be other people in the same boat as you. Are you a statistical outlier? Yeah definitely. Are you bugged? No probably not.

Tons of people receive tons of doubles. I made another thread about this and did the math and I’m pretty positive it’s NOT RNG.

Here’s my thread:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Fractals-End-Chest-RNG/first#post4694039

Edit:

For reference, you’d need over 10 trillion players before you’d see the RNG that I’ve experienced in fractals.

(edited by Nevets Crimsonwing.5271)

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

^^; RNG is RNG I keep saving them thinking something good will come of it!

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

^^; RNG is RNG I keep saving them thinking something good will come of it!

RNG is RNG but the reward generator for fractals is NOT RNG and doesn’t even come close to approximating it.

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

^^; RNG is RNG I keep saving them thinking something good will come of it!

RNG is RNG but the reward generator for fractals is NOT RNG and doesn’t even come close to approximating it.

Do you have proof that it’s not? Besides data generated by others that you look for a pattern in? Prety sure the devs have said it was RNG, as with all RNG systems patterns sometimes seem to appear, and there are always those that defy or break the odds.

It’s possible that there is a flaw in the RNG algorithm causing a hitch, but I highly doubt some dev is sitting there chuckling as he gives you the same ring xD

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Posted by: Konig Des Todes.2086

Konig Des Todes.2086

I commonly get Mellaggan’s Whorl from fractals. But I do got any other as well. RNG is RNG and duplicates happen.

Dear ANet writers,
Stop treating GW2 as a single story. Each Season and expansion should be their own story.

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Posted by: Miss Lana.5276

Miss Lana.5276

True random has repeats in itself. The sample size you have here is nowhere near large enough to assume that you only get two different types of rings.

You’re just “unlucky”. The RNGods don’t smile upon you.

48 Characters|Necro|Raider|Fractaller|PvPer|Singer
So long Treeface.
“…Kormir? I know not of whom you speak.”

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

^^; RNG is RNG I keep saving them thinking something good will come of it!

RNG is RNG but the reward generator for fractals is NOT RNG and doesn’t even come close to approximating it.

Do you have proof that it’s not? Besides data generated by others that you look for a pattern in? Prety sure the devs have said it was RNG, as with all RNG systems patterns sometimes seem to appear, and there are always those that defy or break the odds.

It’s possible that there is a flaw in the RNG algorithm causing a hitch, but I highly doubt some dev is sitting there chuckling as he gives you the same ring xD

I already linked my thread with my data and statistical analysis. What you do is run a probability analysis on the chances of getting 2 of the same rings back to back. Like I said, you’d need over 10 trillion players to find just ONE instance of my repetitions.

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

True random has repeats in itself. The sample size you have here is nowhere near large enough to assume that you only get two different types of rings.

You’re just “unlucky”. The RNGods don’t smile upon you.

How many flips of a coin do you need while only getting heads to say with 95% confidence that the coin is loaded?

The answer is 6.

I provided a much larger sample size in my thread if you want to look.

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

I already linked my thread with my data and statistical analysis. What you do is run a probability analysis on the chances of getting 2 of the same rings back to back. Like I said, you’d need over 10 trillion players to find just ONE instance of my repetitions.

sigh I see you are really driven about this for some reason…. Really no point in arguing about the human desire to identify patters etc, I’m simply saying the system is based on RNG, untill a dev says otherwise anything you prove with your “test” is purely hypothetical.

Are you 100% sure your test shows the true statistics and probability of getting a ring, and getting the duplicate ring?

What scale of fractal are you doing?

Honestly with the total number of ascended rings available. Getting duplicates is hardly a surprise to me.

How many flips of a coin do you need while only getting heads to say with 95% confidence that the coin is loaded?
The answer is 6.
I provided a much larger sample size in my thread if you want to look.

You are aware that that is probability, it’s not an absolute… If someone flips a coin 10 times it may very well come up heads ALL 10 times, and the coin may be 100% legit.

Would you say someone playing Yahtzee that rolls 5 sixes in one roll must be cheating?

(edited by Miku.6297)

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Posted by: Exun.7825

Exun.7825

What you need is a larger scale test. Do it with other peoples, for a total of 1000 rings, and then you will have more weight in saying that your test is representative of the reality.

After that, there are other issues like how are done the tests and are testers cheating or making mistakes? You can never be sure when someone shows you a screenshot that he truly put the items in that natural order or if he made mistakes or intentionally faked patterns. (I am pointing out objectivity and reliability problems of human beings, don’t take it for yourself).

Having said that for me the closer way to know the truth is if an Anet staff member come spread the holy words “things are calculated that way” then we will have to trust him and shut our mouths because the probability he would say the truth is much higher than the probability that any test would say the truth.

(edited by Exun.7825)

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Posted by: Pandaman.4758

Pandaman.4758

The RNG does produce some pretty odd results sometimes, finished a scale 29 fractal last week and got a Khilbron’s Phylactery… as did three other people in the party. Not only did four out of five people manage to get a third item from completing the fractal, we all got exactly the same ring.

RNG is RNG, sometimes you get Dawn out of a moa, other times you get shafted in the most statistically impressive way possible.

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Posted by: Aenesthesia.1697

Aenesthesia.1697

Rng is rng, but we don’t know if it’s fair rng, or unfair.

For example, the probability to get berserker rings could be 0,0001%, while the probability to get again that crappy ring with condition and vitality might be 25%. It would still be rng, only balanced to avoid giving the players what they want (unless they pay for it, which seems to be anet’s policy).

For all we know, there could also be some trolling written into the ring roll algorithm: on mondays, the probability of getting kitten of type A might be higher, on tuesdays, the probability of getting kitten of type B may be higher, and so on. That’s how you expain the repeated drops in the same group.

People think that, it being rng, the probability of getting the 26 rings must be the same, when it can be anything the devs decided it to be.

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

I already linked my thread with my data and statistical analysis. What you do is run a probability analysis on the chances of getting 2 of the same rings back to back. Like I said, you’d need over 10 trillion players to find just ONE instance of my repetitions.

sigh I see you are really driven about this for some reason…. Really no point in arguing about the human desire to identify patters etc, I’m simply saying the system is based on RNG, untill a dev says otherwise anything you prove with your “test” is purely hypothetical.

Are you 100% sure your test shows the true statistics and probability of getting a ring, and getting the duplicate ring?

What scale of fractal are you doing?

Honestly with the total number of ascended rings available. Getting duplicates is hardly a surprise to me.

How many flips of a coin do you need while only getting heads to say with 95% confidence that the coin is loaded?
The answer is 6.
I provided a much larger sample size in my thread if you want to look.

You are aware that that is probability, it’s not an absolute… If someone flips a coin 10 times it may very well come up heads ALL 10 times, and the coin may be 100% legit.

Would you say someone playing Yahtzee that rolls 5 sixes in one roll must be cheating?

I don’t think you understand how statistics works. Statistics never gives absolutes.

I’ve provided numbers that are astronomically improbable. You’ve provided no numbers.

Other people have provided examples that are astronomically improbable. You’ve provided no numbers.

Go ahead and shout “RNG” like a religious zealot. I can’t convince you otherwise unless the code for how rewards are generated is released.

It never will be, so we’ll just have to disagree.

(edited by Nevets Crimsonwing.5271)

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Rng is rng, but we don’t know if it’s fair rng, or unfair.

For example, the probability to get berserker rings could be 0,0001%, while the probability to get again that crappy ring with condition and vitality might be 25%. It would still be rng, only balanced to avoid giving the players what they want (unless they pay for it, which seems to be anet’s policy).

For all we know, there could also be some trolling written into the ring roll algorithm: on mondays, the probability of getting kitten of type A might be higher, on tuesdays, the probability of getting kitten of type B may be higher, and so on. That’s how you expain the repeated drops in the same group.

People think that, it being rng, the probability of getting the 26 rings must be the same, when it can be anything the devs decided it to be.

Yeah, this.

My tests basically claim that IF the odds of getting ANY possible ring are supposed to be equal, the RNG isn’t doing a good job replicating randomness.

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

My claim in a nutshell:

If you have a 26 (or 32 depending on however many rings can possibly drop) sided dice, where all sides have an equal chance of landing, you’d need over 10 trillion players to replicate the duplicate results I’ve seen. Those are REALLY REALLY long odds.

There are a variety of explanations, such as RNG being time dependent instead as noted above, or of the “sides” of the dice NOT having an equal chance of landing, or of the RNG just being bad in general.

My point is that it’s likely the model wherein you have an equal chance of getting ANY ring from the pot isn’t the proper model.

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

I don’t think you understand how statistics works. Statistics never gives absolutes.

I’m aware statistics don’t give absolutes, I’m not the one coming here saying here are my numbers this proves it can’t be rng… That’s you.

I’ve provided numbers that are astronomically improbably. You’ve provided no numbers.

Other people have provided examples that are astronomically improbable. You’ve provided no numbers.

You have provided numbers based on your assumption of how the system works. The same could be said for other numbers that have been provided. If you look at the screen shot I posted I have plenty of duplicates as well. Does that mean it’s not RNG? Nope it doesn’t.

I haven’t provided numbers because as you stated, unless the devs release info on how it works, it’s all hypothetical. Releasing numbers based on variables that may or may not be correct… May or may not be correct.

Go ahead and shout “RNG” like a religious zealot. I can’t convince you otherwise unless the code for how rewards are generated is released.

It never will be, so we’ll just have to disagree.

Yep, I’ll keep preaching and praying to RNGesus, you keep your tin foil hat at the ready!

_—- responding to next post..

Right so if you have a 26 sided die, you’d need 10 trillion rolls to replicate the EXACT duplication of what you have seen. Would you need 10 trillion rolls for multiple players to get multiple copies of the same ring?

I’d guess the odds are not 100% evenly weighted on getting item a vs getting item b. How ever, even then it’s still RNG.

(edited by Miku.6297)

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

I don’t think you understand how statistics works. Statistics never gives absolutes.

I’m aware statistics don’t give absolutes, I’m not the one coming here saying here are my numbers this proves it can’t be rng… That’s you.

I’ve provided numbers that are astronomically improbably. You’ve provided no numbers.

Other people have provided examples that are astronomically improbable. You’ve provided no numbers.

You have provided numbers based on your assumption of how the system works. The same could be said for other numbers that have been provided. If you look at the screen shot I posted I have plenty of duplicates as well. Does that mean it’s not RNG? Nope it doesn’t.

I haven’t provided numbers because as you stated, unless the devs release info on how it works, it’s all hypothetical. Releasing numbers based on variables that may or may not be correct… May or may not be correct.

Go ahead and shout “RNG” like a religious zealot. I can’t convince you otherwise unless the code for how rewards are generated is released.

It never will be, so we’ll just have to disagree.

Yep, I’ll keep preaching and praying to RNGesus, you keep your tin foil hat at the ready!

_—- responding to next post..

Right so if you have a 26 sided die, you’d need 10 trillion rolls to replicate the EXACT duplication of what you have seen. Would you need 10 trillion rolls for multiple players to get multiple copies of the same ring?

I’d guess the odds are not 100% evenly weighted on getting item a vs getting item b. How ever, even then it’s still RNG.

I’ve not used the word proof or prove once. That was you buddy. Control “F” it to see.

I’m trying to show that the most obvious model for how rewards are allocated (dice roll with 26-34 even sides) isn’t how it works. That’s all.

Your last bit is completely wrong. It would take over 10 trillion players to get 8 duplicates out of 42 pairs of rolls, which is what I have received, assuming the dice is supposed to be “fair.”

(edited by Nevets Crimsonwing.5271)

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Also:

Random means “Governed by or involving equal chances for each item.” If it’s not an even dice, it’s not random.

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/random

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

Yep, I did ask you if you had proof buddy, I meant concrete hard evidence that it’s not RNG. You gave your numbers and statistics based on your assumptions. Without A-net disclosing how the rolls for rewards like this are made, it’s all theory.

My last “Bit” did you bother to read it?

I literally said, the odds of getting item A vs getting item B are NOT evenly weighted.

Most of the time in a game like this, RNG means an unpredictable result not it’s 100% even chance.

(edited by Miku.6297)

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Yep, I did ask you if you had proof buddy, I meant concrete hard evidence that it’s not RNG. You gave your numbers and statistics based on your assumptions. Without A-net disclosing how the rolls for rewards like this are made, it’s all theory.

My last “Bit” did you bother to read it?

I literally said, the odds of getting item A vs getting item B are NOT evenly weighted.

Most of the time in a game like this, RNG means an unpredictable result not it’s 100% even chance.

Sometimes I don’t even know why I bother.

“RNG” stands for RANDOM number generator dude.

You wrote:

“I’d guess the odds are not 100% evenly weighted on getting item a vs getting item b. How ever, even then it’s still RNG”

NO. BY DEFINITION THIS IS WRONG.

If the odds are not 100% evenly weighted on getting item a vs. getting item b, then BY DEFINITION it’s not a RANDOM number generator.

I mean seriously. Think here for a second. That’s why I defined RANDOM above.

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

Sometimes I don’t know why I bother either.

If that’s the case, what system that we have is RNG? What system in computer game is RNG? Would it have been better if I said the it’s still RNG based?

I have thought for a second, I just disagree with what you consider RNG loot.

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Sometimes I don’t know why I bother either.

If that’s the case, what system that we have is RNG? What system in computer game is RNG? Would it have been better if I said the it’s still RNG based?

I have thought for a second, I just disagree with what you consider RNG loot.

We’ve come to the source of our disagreement. You hold a wrong definition of random.

Fine. As long as we agree that my data give evidence to support that all rings likely don’t drop as we would expect from an even dice roll, then I no longer have any reason to engage with you.

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

We’ve come to the source of our disagreement. You hold a wrong definition of random.
Fine. As long as we agree that my data give evidence to support that all rings likely don’t drop as we would expect from an even dice roll, then I no longer have any reason to engage with you.

I’d say you hold the wrong definition of RNG loot, or random in the context that it is used in a RNG loot generation system.

But yes, I agree not every drop is evenly weight.

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Posted by: Nike.2631

Nike.2631

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

Wow. That is so NOT how you calculate doubles.

For starters that’s the chance of specific doubles in a sample size of 2. The chance of getting the same as a ring you already have is 1:26 ~ almost 4%. So not olny does it happen, it happens all the time. But moreover the chance you even beginning to look for doubles doesn’t start until you have one. The sample bias at play here is off the friken charts.

What would be a trillion times weirder is if a person getting perfectly reasonable RNG results out of a field of millions of outcomes didn’t come on the boards to claim exceptionalism…

Are you a statistical outlier? Yeah definitely. Are you bugged? No probably not.

Exactly .

“You keep saying ‘its unfair.’
I wonder what your basis for comparison is…”
- Jareth, King of Goblins.

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Posted by: Seera.5916

Seera.5916

Yep, I did ask you if you had proof buddy, I meant concrete hard evidence that it’s not RNG. You gave your numbers and statistics based on your assumptions. Without A-net disclosing how the rolls for rewards like this are made, it’s all theory.

My last “Bit” did you bother to read it?

I literally said, the odds of getting item A vs getting item B are NOT evenly weighted.

Most of the time in a game like this, RNG means an unpredictable result not it’s 100% even chance.

Sometimes I don’t even know why I bother.

“RNG” stands for RANDOM number generator dude.

You wrote:

“I’d guess the odds are not 100% evenly weighted on getting item a vs getting item b. How ever, even then it’s still RNG”

NO. BY DEFINITION THIS IS WRONG.

If the odds are not 100% evenly weighted on getting item a vs. getting item b, then BY DEFINITION it’s not a RANDOM number generator.

I mean seriously. Think here for a second. That’s why I defined RANDOM above.

A Random Number Generator only generates a number.

That number is then compared to a chart of items and you get the item that number corresponds to.

If I have 6 rings and the RNG generator generates a number between 1 and 100.

Ring 1 could come up for numbers 1-10, Ring 2 for 11-15 (it’s a powerful ring), Ring 3 for 16-30 (it’s a generic ring), Ring 4 for 31-40, Ring 5 for 41-50, and Ring 6 for 51-60. A roll of 61-100 says to roll on the generic loot table.

So the RNG is fair, you get an equal shot at each number. But ANet hasn’t necessarily made each Ring have the exact same range of numbers to win it. Infused rings may have 5 numbers and unfused may have 10 numbers. They may have beserker stat rings have a lower rang and other stat rings have a higher one. Or they may be identical.

You may have been rolling unique numbers that are just close enough to each other that they are falling in the range of the ring you get a double of.

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Posted by: insanemaniac.2456

insanemaniac.2456

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

Wow. That is so NOT how you calculate doubles.

gave me a laugh too :X

JQ: Rikkity
head here to discuss wvw without fear of infractions

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Posted by: Cyninja.2954

Cyninja.2954

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

Wow. That is so NOT how you calculate doubles.

For starters that’s the chance of specific doubles in a sample size of 2. The chance of getting the same as a ring you already have is 1:26 ~ almost 4%. So not olny does it happen, it happens all the time. But moreover the chance you even beginning to look for doubles doesn’t start until you have one. The sample bias at play here is off the friken charts.

What would be a trillion times weirder is if a person getting perfectly reasonable RNG results out of a field of millions of outcomes didn’t come on the boards to claim exceptionalism…

Are you a statistical outlier? Yeah definitely. Are you bugged? No probably not.

Exactly .

But but he had such fancy math. How dare you bring up logic and correct calculations… Shame on you.

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Posted by: uhohhotdog.3598

uhohhotdog.3598

RNG doesn’t mean you have an equal chance at every type of ring. Only if that’s how it is set up.

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

RNG doesn’t mean you have an equal chance at every type of ring. Only if that’s how it is set up.

Random means equal chance at each outcome. If there are 4 numbers for a given ring and one number for another, it’s the functional equivalent of a weighted number generator.

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

Random means equal chance at each outcome. If there are 4 numbers for a given ring and one number for another, it’s the functional equivalent of a weighted number generator.

Definition of random in English:
adjective
1Made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision
1.1 Statistics Governed by or involving equal chances for each item.
2 informal Odd, unusual, or unexpected: I find it impossible to not laugh at such a random guy

Refer to definition 1 of the dictionary link you provided. That is what a RNG loot system does. It does NOT mean all odds are equal.

Keep in mind, the RNG is actually 100% equal… What number you get from x-z is the same, The value of the number may not be, but the chance of getting any number is…

For example: from 1-100,

rolling 1-50 earns you nothing
rolling 51-70 earns you a blue
rolling 71-85 earns you a green
rolling 86-96 earns you a yellow
rolling 97-100 earns you an orange
rolling 101 earns you a precursor (sorry couldn’t resist the odds are just so bad)

The odds of player A rolling a 25 is the SAME as the player rolling 100. The value of a 25 is certainly not the value of 100, but the odds of getting that result are infact 100% identical.

(edited by Miku.6297)

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Random means equal chance at each outcome. If there are 4 numbers for a given ring and one number for another, it’s the functional equivalent of a weighted number generator.

Definition of random in English:
adjective
1Made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision
1.1 Statistics Governed by or involving equal chances for each item.
2 informal Odd, unusual, or unexpected: I find it impossible to not laugh at such a random guy

Refer to definition 1 of the dictionary link you provided. That is what a RNG loot system does. It does NOT mean all odds are equal.

Keep in mind, the RNG is actually 100% equal… What number you get from x-z is the same, The value of the number may not be, but the chance of getting any number is…

For example: from 1-100,

rolling 1-50 earns you nothing
rolling 51-70 earns you a blue
rolling 70-85 earns you a green
rolling 86-96 earns you a yellow
rolling 97-100 earns you an orange
rolling 101 earns you a precursor (sorry couldn’t resist the odds are just so bad)

The odds of player A rolling a 25 is the SAME as the player rolling 100. The value of a 25 is certainly not the value of 100, but the odds of getting that result are infact 100% identical.

Your own example contradicts the first definition. The odds you propose are weighted, purposely and with deliberation.

Fractals only give 2 rings?

in Fractals, Dungeons & Raids

Posted by: Kupper.8074

Kupper.8074

Well this was a lot of effort for a troll

JQ – The ‘veggie’ Knight
Berserker = Skilled http://i.imgur.com/g1rkIub.jpg
Never forget – http://i.imgur.com/Oxra9sj.jpg

Fractals only give 2 rings?

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Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

LOL Are you serious?

The odds of rolling any number 50 and down are EXACTLY the same as rolling 100. How are the odds of rolling any said number weighted?

The weighted factor comes in AFTER to determine the value of the roll.

Would you claim the loot system in GW2 is not a RNG loot system because a precursor is more rare then a masterwork??

(edited by Miku.6297)

Fractals only give 2 rings?

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

LOL Are you serious?

The odds of rolling any number 50 and down are EXACTLY the same as rolling 100. How are the odds of rolling any said number weighted?

The weighted factor comes in AFTER to determine the value of the roll.

Would you claim the loot system in GW2 is not a RNG loot system because a precursor is more rare then a masterwork??

Suppose 1-10 give an exotic, 11-30 give a yellow, 31-60 give a green, 61-100 give a blue. Suppose we have a four sided dice which can roll a 1, a 2, a 3, a 4. If it rolls a 4 four times out of ten, a 3 three times out of ten, a 2 two times out of ten, and a 1 one time out of ten, you’d say the dice is weighted and is thus not random. It’s the same thing as you provided above.

But here’s the thing. Under your example all items of a given rarity should be treated equally. That’s what most people assume with fractal rings. If you roll a ring you should have a random chance of getting any of the rings, perhaps by using a random number generator with each ring assigned a given value. But that’s not what happens.

Edit: For clarity.

(edited by Nevets Crimsonwing.5271)

Fractals only give 2 rings?

in Fractals, Dungeons & Raids

Posted by: Miku.6297

Miku.6297

Wait what? why would I say the dice is not weighted and thus is not random? What in the world are you talking about?

How is that the same thing as what I said… I simply said if you randomly generate a number from 1-100 the odds of getting one number are the same as the odds of getting another number.

One number may be more valuable then the other, but the value of the number has nothing to do with the odds of the number showing up.

Fractals only give 2 rings?

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Posted by: Substance E.4852

Substance E.4852

Has anyone actually gotten enough rings to make any real kind of data set or is this another “this happened twice in a row and thus is the norm” thread?

The chance of any ring spawning after you have gotten one already is the same as the first time it dropped. The chance of the total event happening is incredibly low but likely not lower than a BLK or precursor drop with the amount of rings that drop in fractals.

Now, if people started getting 2-3 of the same ring in WvW rank chests I’d start to worry…

Connection error(s) detected. Retrying…

(edited by Substance E.4852)

Fractals only give 2 rings?

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Wait what? why would I say the dice is not weighted and thus is not random? What in the world are you talking about?

How is that the same thing as what I said… I simply said if you randomly generate a number from 1-100 the odds of getting one number are the same as the odds of getting another number.

One number may be more valuable then the other, but the value of the number has nothing to do with the odds of the number showing up.

I edited it before you responded. I meant IS weighted. Apologies for the typo.

And a loot table system with different VALUES is the equivalent of a weighted number generator system, so it’s not really a random number generator loot system.

Fractals only give 2 rings?

in Fractals, Dungeons & Raids

Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Has anyone actually gotten enough rings to make any real kind of data set or is this another “this happened twice in a row and thus is the norm” thread?

If you read the thread I linked my data set which had at the time 84 rings or 42 repeated trials.

Of those 42 repeated trials there were 8 pairs, implying that all rings are not treated equally, or, as I personally suspect, there were a number of weird things going on with updates/resets. So that when I did a fractal 50 prior to an update and then updated and then did the 50 again I had a higher chance at getting the same ring again.

Don’t know what’s going on, but the ring outcome doesn’t seem to be random.

Edit:

Here it is again for future peoples:

https://dviw3bl0enbyw.cloudfront.net/uploads/forum_attachment/file/177902/Fractals_Rings.png

Fractals only give 2 rings?

in Fractals, Dungeons & Raids

Posted by: Seera.5916

Seera.5916

But here’s the thing. Under your example all items of a given rarity should be treated equally. That’s what most people assume with fractal rings. If you roll a ring you should have a random chance of getting any of the rings, perhaps by using a random number generator with each ring assigned a given value. But that’s not what happens.

There’s your problem. You’re assuming each ring has an equal chance. ANet probably knows which stat is the best and may have the best stat at a lower chance.

Without knowing the range of numbers in their RNG generator and what the loot tables are, you can not know for sure what the probability of getting a specific ring is or is not.

Which means you need a ton of data points to generate an approximation of the probability. Because the more trials you do, for a system that’s working as intended, the data will trend toward the theoretical.

Unless you can convince ANet to release the loot tables. And I doubt they will.

And the more time between your first trial and last trial increases the chances of the loot table having been changed which would invalidate your results.

Fractals only give 2 rings?

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Posted by: Sorin.4310

Sorin.4310

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

This might make you think something must be bugged, but considering literally millions of daily bonus chests have been opened, statistically, there should be other people in the same boat as you. Are you a statistical outlier? Yeah definitely. Are you bugged? No probably not.

Tons of people receive tons of doubles. I made another thread about this and did the math and I’m pretty positive it’s NOT RNG.

Here’s my thread:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Fractals-End-Chest-RNG/first#post4694039

Edit:

For reference, you’d need over 10 trillion players before you’d see the RNG that I’ve experienced in fractals.

“Tons of players have tons of doubles”. I’m seeing a few anecdotal cases.

I went over your thread. It just reinforces the fact that there are statistical outliers. You take a calculator and see that it the chance of you having these series of events is extremely small, and make something out of that. You don’t need over a trillion players before you’d see the RNG. It’s not like if something has a 1 and 10^50th, chance of occuring, then 10^50th cases have to occur. It can happen on the very first instance. That is literally what random is.

Other people tried to explain this in the other thread. Your eyes see patterns so you make it out to something. In your screenshot from the other thread there are at least 5 (I didn’t search hard) instances of you getting the same ring connected diagonally. But no one makes an “RNG” claim about rings being connected every 9th or 11th run because 1, that seems silly, and 2, diagonal patterns aren’t as easy to see. Only difference between this and the connected ones are the visual difference.

Your sample size is also way too small. You may keep doing fractals and never see a repeat again for 70 years. Because the events are independent. We simply won’t know.

Fractals only give 2 rings?

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Posted by: Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

This might make you think something must be bugged, but considering literally millions of daily bonus chests have been opened, statistically, there should be other people in the same boat as you. Are you a statistical outlier? Yeah definitely. Are you bugged? No probably not.

Tons of people receive tons of doubles. I made another thread about this and did the math and I’m pretty positive it’s NOT RNG.

Here’s my thread:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Fractals-End-Chest-RNG/first#post4694039

Edit:

For reference, you’d need over 10 trillion players before you’d see the RNG that I’ve experienced in fractals.

“Tons of players have tons of doubles”. I’m seeing a few anecdotal cases.

I went over your thread. It just reinforces the fact that there are statistical outliers. You take a calculator and see that it the chance of you having these series of events is extremely small, and make something out of that. You don’t need over a trillion players before you’d see the RNG. It’s not like if something has a 1 and 10^50th, chance of occuring, then 10^50th cases have to occur. It can happen on the very first instance. That is literally what random is.

Other people tried to explain this in the other thread. Your eyes see patterns so you make it out to something. In your screenshot from the other thread there are at least 5 (I didn’t search hard) instances of you getting the same ring connected diagonally. But no one makes an “RNG” claim about rings being connected every 9th or 11th run because 1, that seems silly, and 2, diagonal patterns aren’t as easy to see. Only difference between this and the connected ones are the visual difference.

Your sample size is also way too small. You may keep doing fractals and never see a repeat again for 70 years. Because the events are independent. We simply won’t know.

I see a lot of rage and not a single use of maths.

The point of statistics is give one a sense of whether their data differ statistically from what would be expected under given conditions.

My data, with 42 pairs of rings, give strong evidence to suggest that the events, for whatever reason, are not independent or are not equally likely.

Sure, something with a 1 in 10^50th chance can happen at any time. But, and read this very carefully, it’s a rare event and we can have confidence that it won’t happen repeatedly or commonly.