Guild Wars 2

Sigh…. fixing thread eating bug.

Welcome to the club. Our membership just seems to keep increasing…

It’s because you play too much. RNG doesn’t favor effort and hard work. Try being a Tryless.

Danikat.8537:

Fernling.1729:

Halvorn.9831:

moony.5780:

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

If you learned that, change the place where you learn. No good will come from there. This is plain wrong.

http://programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers

True RNG is not possible, but true RNG is not necessary.

The important thing is that it is possible to have simulated RNG that has absolutely no connection to your account – so that even if it’s not completely random it will be equally random for everyone and no one will be guaranteed better or worse results.

Which does seem to be the case in GW2. Or at least the only evidence I’ve seen against it is purely anecdotal and more often than not along the lines of “My friend just pulled his 3rd precursor from the Mystic Forge, I once threw some rares in there and I lost money so obviously I have an unlucky account that will never get any good drops” with a follow up post further down where they admit that yes their friend does combine rares or exotics in the Forge several times a week and has never kept track of the results but suspects he’s lost more gold than he’s made overall.

As far as i see it really matter and it really have an effect on the acc bcs u use the same computer usually….for me i would vote for useing non rng rewards also…like u have a 0,01% chance for a pre drop..if u didnt get it on the 1.000.000 loot ..u will get one…and then it restarts…if u got one before reaching the 1.000.000 ..then it also restarts

Halvorn.9831:

moony.5780:

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

If you learned that, change the place where you learn. No good will come from there. This is plain wrong.

Thanks god i dont need switch my university….XD

Fernling.1729:

http://programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers

True RNG is not possible, but true RNG is not necessary.

First:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise
http://jayakody2000lk.blogspot.de/2013/09/usb-random-number-generator.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator

Second:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//dev/random

Third, as somewhere else stated:

Even when using a PRNG you can draw the numbers from a common pool for all players at the server. This is totally unpredictable since it also incorporates the reaction patterns of players as well as network latencies.

So, no, true random is possible.

Halvorn.9831:

Fernling.1729:

http://programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers

True RNG is not possible, but true RNG is not necessary.

First:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise
http://jayakody2000lk.blogspot.de/2013/09/usb-random-number-generator.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator

Second:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//dev/random

Third, as somewhere else stated:

Even when using a PRNG you can draw the numbers from a common pool for all players at the server. This is totally unpredictable since it also incorporates the reaction patterns of players as well as network latencies.

So, no, true random is possible.

You got me there. Never heard of using hardware to generate the numbers. Interesting stuff.

I got 4 precursors in this 3 years. 3 from the forge 1 using the crafting precursor system.

I love how the devs say “RNG is even” yet I known several players with under 3 months with 1-5 pre drops form both in game and forge yet many many long term players who have never gotten one.

I have gotten 6 precursors mainly in the last year but I bought them all. Two I have made into Legendary weapons and am working on harvesting mats for the rest. While I have never had a precursor drop in-world (I don’t gamble with the Mystic Toilet) I have gotten what I think is a reasonable number of exotic and ascended drops. So overall RNG-wise I think I am par for the course. I haven’t kept track but I do get dry spells when I seem to get nada and then suddenly I start getting them. I think it averages out in the end.

I would probably be gobsmacked if I had a precursor drop, lol, but I gave up a long time ago of caring whether I got one or not that way. If you want one bad enough, earn gold to buy one, craft one or Mystic Toilet Gamble for one. RNG is out of the equation for the first two options. The newer precursors will have to be crafted anyway and will be account bound so if you want those you would have to work to craft them.

moony.5780:

Danikat.8537:

Fernling.1729:

Halvorn.9831:

moony.5780:

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

If you learned that, change the place where you learn. No good will come from there. This is plain wrong.

http://programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers

True RNG is not possible, but true RNG is not necessary.

The important thing is that it is possible to have simulated RNG that has absolutely no connection to your account – so that even if it’s not completely random it will be equally random for everyone and no one will be guaranteed better or worse results.

Which does seem to be the case in GW2. Or at least the only evidence I’ve seen against it is purely anecdotal and more often than not along the lines of “My friend just pulled his 3rd precursor from the Mystic Forge, I once threw some rares in there and I lost money so obviously I have an unlucky account that will never get any good drops” with a follow up post further down where they admit that yes their friend does combine rares or exotics in the Forge several times a week and has never kept track of the results but suspects he’s lost more gold than he’s made overall.

As far as i see it really matter and it really have an effect on the acc bcs u use the same computer usually…

reposting this because you seem intent on thinking your account info matters. Read the bolded part.

Aidan Savage.2078:

moony.5780:

Shylock.4653:

cheetahmode.4623:

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

RNG isn’t tied on time, it is tied on tries. So if you play a lot in short time you have better changes than playing very little over long time.

unluckily rng with computers is never real rng..bcs the system tend to go to the same nrs again and again..so there are really lucky acc and notlucky acc

And this is why I have the below post bookmarked.

Aidan Savage.2078:

Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.

Second, those complaining about lack of drops have a notable LACK of information about what they’re doing. Brand new accounts? Most of them are probably doing open world stuff, things that help level characters and AP. The “old” accounts? Sitting in LA griping or running dungeons. On top of that, the devs arent going to say kitten, because they’ve [b]already stated it[/i]. Why would they repeat something that players have been repeating when it’s clear people who are utterly convinced otherwise (like those wearing tinfoil) refuse to listen? For you, their silence may be an indirect confirmation of an “issue,” but for the rest of us, them not saying anything is perfectly reasonable.

Why is it reasonable? One, JS has stated nothing about your account (this includes your serial code, for mr tinfoil above that mentioned it) other than your magic find boost affects RNG. Two, he’s stated it repeatedly in multiple threads. Three, he’s the game’s Economist, someone who’s definitely going to know more about the RNG than say, Gaile. Especially when said RNG has an impact on the economy he’s in charge of monitoring. Four, a working RNG is going to have outliers, both those with abysmal luck, like the OP of every friggin “RNGesus hates meh” thread, and those who can pull out back to back precursors. I’m in the middle of the average and better luck right now, having recently pulled an ascended chest out of a champ bag. If I was on my desktop I’d upload a picture of it. Fifth, Anet probably understands there’s no reasoning with these people, so arent going to validate their non-concerns, whether with an affirmative or not.

As a sidenote, the OP of one of the other threads has been directly told by JS that account-determined luck is a steaming pile of dolyak kitten. Twice.

Finally, you get to/make a good point. Does the system work? Yes. Does the system work as intended? Quite likely. Does the system work as players think it was intended? Clearly not when you get threads like this. The last one is where a lot of players base their “it dont work” argument. It’s also why JS made a thread asking about the different options working WITH rng (not replacing) with alternate systems, similar to dungeon tokens and fractal relics. While the same idea, they’re different systems- one is for obtaining loot you cant get without doing the dungeon (sans pvp) even though the dungeon doesnt drop it directly (be nice if it could), and the other is a system for obtaining loot if RNG doesnt roll in your favor to give you the exact one you want/need.

I lost count of the percursors drops I got…because I do not like legendary skins I sold them all.

RedBaron.6058:

I lost count of the percursors drops I got…because I do not like legendary skins I sold them all.

Sounds like you’re exploiting a lucky account that RNG favors and its making money off other peoples’ misfortune. You should be giving them away for free if you’re getting that many.

Tumult.2578:

1 looted in 3 years here. Although it’s not like it’s easy to tell you have a precursor.
A little blue text somewhere near the bottom of the items description is not that recognizable, assuming you looked at the item description. I bet many have been sold for base value.
Considering it’s likely the most important LOOT you will ever make in the game, I think a Precursor drop should be announced map wide by the game system and the item itself should be almost flashing red and green.

Oh, in all that time my luck has been 6 times better in the mystic forge.

Given the rarity with which I find an exotic item of any kind in loot, I tend to look at them more closely, if only to see if I’ve unlocked the skin. I don’t think anything more than player’s actually looking is necessary, and would oppose any such “announcements” as unnecessary, intrusive (unless I turn off game announcements, which has consequences), and frankly obnoxious. Then there’s the possibility that if someone can’t be bothered to look at an exotic drop to see what it is, why would they pay attention to an announcement?

quagganzilla.6450:

I love how the devs say “RNG is even” yet I known several players with under 3 months with 1-5 pre drops form both in game and forge yet many many long term players who have never gotten one.

You do realize that when you kill something or use the Mystic Forge it doesn’t care what your result was the previous time?

The chance of getting a specific item out of a drop or the Mystic Forge is the exact same no matter how many times you do it.

And true RNG will have most people around the average number of successes (getting the drop you want), some people at the high end (getting the drop you want a lot), and some people at the low end (not getting the drop you want). Look up statistics and bell curves.

And remember that Apple made the shuffle on their iPod shuffle LESS random in order to make it appear more random. Our brains are wired to see patterns a bit too well and we have a tendency to see patterns where none exist. And we’re prone to confirmation bias.

quagganzilla.6450:

I love how the devs say “RNG is even” yet I known several players with under 3 months with 1-5 pre drops form both in game and forge yet many many long term players who have never gotten one.

Aaaaaand another wikipedia link incoming:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

I know it’s some tough stuff. But the information is alla available.

The average distribution of the RNG is even. That means, if you have a bazillion of trials, the distribution of random numbers is flat. But you need a bazillion. For everything less it will not have “evened” out. Thus the so called outliers.

Random means something different than most ppl imply. It does not mean “fair”, especially not with the low sample sizes that are typical for the experience of a few players.

2 months after playing the game i got 2 precursors.
And made incinerator a month after i got, sold the other one for mats

Lucky <3

IndigoSundown.5419:

Tumult.2578:

1 looted in 3 years here. Although it’s not like it’s easy to tell you have a precursor.
A little blue text somewhere near the bottom of the items description is not that recognizable, assuming you looked at the item description. I bet many have been sold for base value.
Considering it’s likely the most important LOOT you will ever make in the game, I think a Precursor drop should be announced map wide by the game system and the item itself should be almost flashing red and green.

Oh, in all that time my luck has been 6 times better in the mystic forge.

Given the rarity with which I find an exotic item of any kind in loot, I tend to look at them more closely, if only to see if I’ve unlocked the skin. I don’t think anything more than player’s actually looking is necessary, and would oppose any such “announcements” as unnecessary, intrusive (unless I turn off game announcements, which has consequences), and frankly obnoxious. Then there’s the possibility that if someone can’t be bothered to look at an exotic drop to see what it is, why would they pay attention to an announcement?

If you salvage exotics or sell them to a merchant NPC for the base value without checking what it is and what it’s worth on the TP then you’re going to lose a lot of money even if you never get a precursor. Even crafted exotics with unpopular stats are worth more than the merchant value, especially weapons which can be thrown in the Forge for a chance at a precursor.

And if you’re in that much of a hurry to empty your inventory that you can’t even open the TP and skim through to see if any of your items are worth gold you obviously have other priorities.

My best advice is to give up the hope that you’ll get a precursor from the sky. I’ve commented on this before, but it bears repeating now.

For as long as MMOs have had the RNG system, I’ve had to contend with the fact that I never, ever, in all my life, have gotten something that was significantly “rare” enough to warrant special mention. I’ve been playing these games for12 years now. And in these 12 years I’ve learned why it is that the lottery is called a stupid people tax..

#1: You aren’t going to get a precursor. Period. All the money you throw at trying to get one is figuratively going down the toilet.

#2: If you can’t measure your progress, it means you can’t make any progress. You are no closer to getting a precursor today then you were at launch. No amount of playtime or money spent entitles you to miracles.

#3: Luck is for other people. It may seem like it is for everyone, but that is because whenever someone is lucky they shout it to the skies. For every person who is lucky, there are tens of thousands who aren’t.

#4: Hard work is for you. It is much more profitable to sell and merch goods for trading than it is to buy and burn them hoping common sense is wrong. Take advantage of the fact that you can make money off of other people playing the lottery.

#5: Don’t even try to get one. It is a waste of time, money, effort, and hope. The sooner you accept failure, the sooner you can get over it and do something productive.