Guild Wars 2

I’ve saved up that amount to try and get me a precursor from the toilet. Will I fail hard or is there a chance that I’ll get one and make a profit? What do you guys recommend? I’ve never done this before.

Always a chance, look through the posts though and you will find several that have thrown thousands of gold into that and came up empty handed.

There’s a chance you’ll make a profit, but a small one that’s not worth it in my mind. Precursor crafting is coming with the expansion anyway, why gamble away good money?

There is always a chance that you’ll get one, but it is always just a chance. there is no magic number that will garantee you a precursor. The average amount of gold invested into getting a precursor out of the forge is actually higher.

so if you like to gamble and don’t mind loosing the 300 gold, go ahead. If you really want a precursor, safe on till you can buy it from the TP.

If you do the later, keep in mind that HoT will have precursor crafting. This means that if you reach the number needed when HoT launches, you might be better off doing that, but as specifics are unknown, you can just keep saving and whatever comes first comes first.

Obviously there is a chance you will profit, and obviously there isn’t. Though, it is well advised that if you have 300 gold, then do not throw all 300 gold into the forge. If you want to gamble a little bit, and that’s fun for you, start out with 100 gold, and see what you get. If nothing, farm a little bit more and keep trying. But, I definitely would not advise you to toss every last silver into the forge on the backs of hopes and dreams to get a precursor. 300 gold itself is a very small amount compared to what others have tossed in, and you could be left with just a couple exotics and rares.

Assume if you spend “only” 300 gold, you’re not going to get a precursor. The lowest sell offers (and highest buy offers) are partly due to the rarity of getting precursors from the forge, i.e. the prices reflect the likelihood of getting them. So if a precursor is being offered at 1,000g (with best offers at 800g), you should predict that anything less than 700g is going to require a lot of luck to succeed.

The people who do “industrial production” of precursors have shown that it’s not unusual to spend 1000s of gold between “successful” forges, although of course, sometimes you spend only a few 100g.

tl;dr 300g is not enough for a good chance; better to save up until you can buy it outright…unless you like the thrill of rolling the dice to see what happens.

Do it and tell us results. For science.

I got Dawn out of the 4 last exo I bought with 300ish gold. It’s doable. Good luck !

There is a chance for success and a chance for failure. In the same way people buy hundreds or even thousands of dollars worth of lottery tickets and don’t win, and those who buy 1 and win.

When it comes to gambling you should always expect to lose, and do so with that in mind. If you feel you can afford to lose 300g with the chance in mind then so be it, but if you are doing so thinking you will profit or ensure success then I would just save up and buy it outright.

It is all random, I haven’t spent any gold in the forge, I have never tried for a legendary. I got the chaos gun with a few exotics I got from doing SW. I do use the forge when I have my bags full of junk.

Don’t do it.

I don’t like gambling, so I don’t do it.

I like to know exactly how much something costs and then I can make an informed decision on whether I think it’s worth it, to me, or not.

If you don’t care for gold go for it.

I think it’s an awesome to throw 300g down to toilet and get nothing in return.

Relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJMDe1dH3Aw

This video is great because it shows how much you can waste, but also how incredibly lucky you could be.

As for 300g….I wouldn’t do it.

Definitely do not recommend. I’ve spent far more in the toilet and have gotten 0 precursors.

My experience with the Mystic Forge hasn’t been the greatest. I was buying exotics for a little bit, but getting nothing in return. So now I save up mats from playing and craft rares, and toss in rares from drops. That has shown to be better for me in terms of MF output. Got 1 precursor (granted it was the harpoon and not worth a whole lot) But I get some cool exotics from time to time.

Save your money. Toss in rares, and cheaper exotics from drops. You’ll be better off.

Look at how much precursors sell for on the TP. If there was a decent chance to get a precursor spending only 300 gold, a lot more people would do it and prices would be much lower.

Everytime I’ve done it it failed.

It has the nickname of ‘toilet’ for a reason.

I would say no, it’s not a good idea to gamble with only that amount of gold.

The Mystic Forge Calculator will give you a hint on how the process works.

Once there, select Precursor and proceed. At the config page:
1) Enter 300 for your gold investment
2) Select the precursor you are aiming for
3) Adjust how much you buy your rares for and an average on how much you sell any exotics that you get out of your forges. Do NOT put the exotics back in.

Proceed and run the sim a few times. I hope it helps.

Do. Not. Gamble. With. The. Toilet.

The ones telling you to go for it probably have a vested interest in you doing so.
cough selling you rares on TP cough

I should get my cold checked out.

Ath.2531:

I would say no, it’s not a good idea to gamble with only that amount of gold.

The Mystic Forge Calculator will give you a hint on how the process works.

Once there, select Precursor and proceed. At the config page:
1) Enter 300 for your gold investment
2) Select the precursor you are aiming for
3) Adjust how much you buy your rares for and an average on how much you sell any exotics that you get out of your forges. Do NOT put the exotics back in.

Proceed and run the sim a few times. I hope it helps.

Considering that sim said 2 precursors and a large net profit when I ran it through with 300 gold, I’m not sure how accurate it is.

Don’t do it. Yesterday I’ve spent around 500g on Mystic Forge and got nothing.

Nausicca.6038:

I got Dawn out of the 4 last exo I bought with 300ish gold. It’s doable. Good luck !

Doable? yes. Probable? no.

This game has a lot of players who have thrown 300g into the forge; most do not get a precursor.

Your mileage will vary.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Ath.2531:

I would say no, it’s not a good idea to gamble with only that amount of gold.

The Mystic Forge Calculator will give you a hint on how the process works.

Once there, select Precursor and proceed. At the config page:
1) Enter 300 for your gold investment
2) Select the precursor you are aiming for
3) Adjust how much you buy your rares for and an average on how much you sell any exotics that you get out of your forges. Do NOT put the exotics back in.

Proceed and run the sim a few times. I hope it helps.

Considering that sim said 2 precursors and a large net profit when I ran it through with 300 gold, I’m not sure how accurate it is.

1 run is definitely not a statistic. Run it a few hundred times. There is an option that allows you to do 5-100 sims at once. You will notice that many of the times you will get no pre.

ENSURE that you have set the config right. Check pics

Avectius.3271:

I’ve saved up that amount to try and get me a precursor from the toilet. Will I fail hard or is there a chance that I’ll get one and make a profit? What do you guys recommend? I’ve never done this before.

Never go to Mystic forge… Ever!!!! Not worth it. Better to buy it. Learn my Lesson the hard way.

Depending on what precursor you are going for, you are already in the realm of buying one with what gold you currently have – especially if the one you want is not one of the really expensive ones. If you go the Mystic Forge route just realize it is a big (huge) gamble and you are more likely to not get a precursor than to get one and it may not be the one you were hoping for….. I guess it depends on how your gambling tolerance is.

I bought my precursor – I selected The Energizer because I could afford that with what I had saved up and eventually made The Moot. I found I really loved it and hubby bought me Rodgort’s Flame which I am currently working on to make the legendary Rodgort since it pairs up so well with The Moot.

Good luck on whatever route you decide on.

don’t do it, not worth, Keep your money try to craft other things and sell them.

dont do it precursors can be bought for up to 800g

i dumped about 600g not long ago and got nothing worthwhile the rarest item i got was a Charrzooka

Avectius.3271:

I’ve saved up that amount to try and get me a precursor from the toilet. Will I fail hard or is there a chance that I’ll get one and make a profit? What do you guys recommend? I’ve never done this before.

Dont bother. If you’re only gambling to get a precursor to turn around and sell for money, you’re wasting your time. You could get it in 10g or 1000g. If you dont care about the high chances of losing all 300g to the forge, go ahead.

Avectius.3271:

I’ve saved up that amount to try and get me a precursor from the toilet. Will I fail hard or is there a chance that I’ll get one and make a profit? What do you guys recommend? I’ve never done this before.

I’ve personally dumped thousand of gold into the forge.

I did get the hunter in a batch of 400g I decided to spend.

If you want advice…. I wouldn’t gamble with anything less than 300g at a time if you want a decent chance at getting a precursor.

Odds are that you will come away empty handed…. and you are already 300g in…. so you need to ask yourself…

Are you willing to deal with the consequences of throwing that 300g away if you get nothing…. or would you be better off just saving up the difference to buy the precursor?

Ultimately the decision is yours….. but I would go for it.

Make sure you post results if you do.

I did small batches of 20-30 and never got one.
The one time I decided to save several hundreds of gold to do a big batch, I got Dusk after like 5 tries…

RNG is RNG. You could spend 10000 gold and never get your precursor.

Just be smart about it. It took me 200g to get Dusk but I was buying low priced rares, dismantling them, then selling the globs and buying mats to craft rare greatwords with my profits and reselling any non pre exotics that popped out which I then reinvested in mats. It took quite a while but I kept my funds relatively level and eventually got one to drop. If you don’t care what pre you get, just throw in the low priced rares. The only reason I did the dismantle roundabout was because I wanted to throw only greatswords into the forge to increase my chances at Dusk. At the time, it was cheaper to buy mats and craft the swords than to buy them outright.

I wouldn’t gamble 300g… then again I only have 1 legendary so maybe I’m not someone to imitate.

As was pointed out, mf precursor crafting research shows that the dry spell can last a couple of thousand gold (I think it was up to 4-5k with super bad luck streaks).

You are no where near the amount fo gold required to “guarantee” a precursor and will most likely end up with nothing.

You should consider things besides the precursor when deciding to craft:

- Do you like to gamble?
If yes, do it. If no, don’t. Seems obvious, but many people approach the mystic forge as some type of crafting mechanic. It’s not!

- How much gold would you need to keep playing?
There are many people who spend ALL their saved gold on the mf only to end up with less than 10g in their wallet and totally discouraged to keep playing. Make sure you take aside a certain amount of gold and say good bye to the rest.

- Precursor pricing on the TP has it’s reasons!
Precursors have their price on the TP due to a reason. The reason being that at current prices that’s how much it costs on average to craft one (modified by a profit % and slight fluctuation).

- Is the precursor the last thing you need for getting your legendary?
Depending on if yes or no, not getting the precursor might set you back a lot. Get everything else done first, then start gambling. Who knows, maybe HoT has hit by then.

In the grand sheme of things, 300g is very little gold for mystic forge gambling, always remember that.

Look at the RNG system in this game. It resets on every roll of the dice so there is no way anyone can say 300g or even 2million gold is enough to get you a precursor. As far as the RNG is concerned, every roll is your first roll.

Also, what if you are lucky enough to get a precursor but have spent most of your gold by then? You won’t be able to afford the sell fee so will need to farm a lot more gold so you can then give it straight to the TP.

Finally, HoT will have precursor crafting and I read somewhere that this announcement has already had an effect on sales. For how much would you sell your precursor? You run the risk of it not selling for a long time during which a large chunk of your money is unavailable to you. Even worse, you may need to relist which would instantly wipe out your initial listing fee.

I always do everything I can to avoid voluntarily rolling those RNG dice and would advise anyone else to do the same and with HoT due out soon the whole thing with precursors is too risky imo. Save your money.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Assume if you spend “only” 300 gold, you’re not going to get a precursor. The lowest sell offers (and highest buy offers) are partly due to the rarity of getting precursors from the forge, i.e. the prices reflect the likelihood of getting them. So if a precursor is being offered at 1,000g (with best offers at 800g), you should predict that anything less than 700g is going to require a lot of luck to succeed.

The people who do “industrial production” of precursors have shown that it’s not unusual to spend 1000s of gold between “successful” forges, although of course, sometimes you spend only a few 100g.

tl;dr 300g is not enough for a good chance; better to save up until you can buy it outright…unless you like the thrill of rolling the dice to see what happens.

You forgot the supply and demand, there are precursors with low price not because they are easier to get compare to dusk, because they have low supply.
while dusk is expansive because it has a high demand

My advice is, just assume you’re going to fail and save the money for something worthwhile. If you understand that you’re going to be gambling then you should understand that you’re probably just going to lose whatever it is you’re gambling with, because that’s how gambling works. If you can spare the gold, then do whatever you want. But if you’ve been saving up this gold, then it’s probably not so simple for you to get, and you’re probably better off keeping it.

lighter.2708:

You forgot the supply and demand, there are precursors with low price not because they are easier to get compare to dusk, because they have low supply.
while dusk is expansive because it has a high demand

Yes and no. Very few people, if at all, craft the cheap precursors.

So you are comparing price and supply/demand of crafted+droped versus only droped precursors.

In this case the expensive ones are closer to how expensive it would be to mystic forge them if we assume:

- prices of base items increase based on desired precursor (TRUE, staff, dagger, sword and greatsword are 2-2.5 times the price of other weapon rares. same goes for exotic)
- price of rares items has a low cap that is not based on precursor crafting (TRUE, ectos define bare minimum price of rares. otherwise we might see harpoon,trident rares drop even more in price)

Conclusion:
- price of undesired precursor weapon types is defined by supply of mostly droped precursors since people are not actively farming them (to expensive due to minimum price of rares being to high)
- price of desired precursor weapon types is defined by supply mostly from the mystic forge since people are actively trying to build them (price on rares of these weapon types is way higher than ecto minimum.

So yes, supply and demand is a factor, but the low price on cheap precursors is mainly due to market failure (set minmum price through ectos) and has less to do with supply and demand.

Um, you can’t craft precursors. So not sure what your point is.

Kal Spiro.9745:

Um, you can’t craft precursors. So not sure what your point is.

Mystic forge crafting or gambling or what ever you want to call it, seriously?

Don’t ever gamble in this game.

lighter.2708:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Assume if you spend “only” 300 gold, you’re not going to get a precursor. The lowest sell offers (and highest buy offers) are partly due to the rarity of getting precursors from the forge, i.e. the prices reflect the likelihood of getting them. So if a precursor is being offered at 1,000g (with best offers at 800g), you should predict that anything less than 700g is going to require a lot of luck to succeed.

The people who do “industrial production” of precursors have shown that it’s not unusual to spend 1000s of gold between “successful” forges, although of course, sometimes you spend only a few 100g.

tl;dr 300g is not enough for a good chance; better to save up until you can buy it outright…unless you like the thrill of rolling the dice to see what happens.

You forgot the supply and demand, there are precursors with low price not because they are easier to get compare to dusk, because they have low supply.
while dusk is expansive because it has a high demand

Supply & Demand can be ignored for the purposes of discussion whether 300g is worth gambling on.

• The lowest-priced precursors cost less than 300g, so no one would gamble that much to get one.
• The next tier of prices is 300-500g and it seems unlikely someone would consider risking 300g when they are that close to putting in a competitive buy offer.
• That leaves the highest-priced precursors, where the high demand is reflected in the price of the precursor and in the cost of the inputs, e.g. Dusk is expensive and rare & exotic GS are similarly more expensive than their equivalent bows.

In other words, supply and demand are already implied in my original advice to the OP: to get 1,000g worth of precursor, they’d have to risk a lot more than 300g. I only “forgot” to include the possibility of the OP being interested in getting 400g worth of precursor.

Spirited Was Eceni.3869:

…the RNG system in this game …resets on every roll of the dice so there is no way anyone can say 300g or even 2million gold is enough to get you a precursor. As far as the RNG is concerned, every roll is your first roll.

While it’s true that RNG resets on every roll, you can still make some reasonable predictions. Each try of four rares offers an approximately 0.13% chance of returning a precursor. Assuming each rare costs 25 silver (chosen for the easy math, although generally rare staffs, swords, greatswords cost more), 300g can buy 300 initial tries. On average, there’s about a 32% chance of getting at least one precursor from that (chances are better if you recycle the non-pre results). If you spend 50s per rare instead, the chances drop to less than 18%.

If you are willing to spend 10,000 gold, the odds are almost indistinguishable from 100% that you’ll get “at least one” precursor. If you spend 2,000,000, it’s still possible that you wouldn’t get one, but it’s horribly unlikely. John Smith would be looking at your account to see what went wrong long before.

tl;dr there’s no way anyone can say that this try or that try is going to get a precursor. There are, however, ways to predict the chances of getting a precursor based on how many attempts are made.

In the OP’s case, 300g is a big risk with a big pay off and poor odds. Some people like that sort of risk; most do not.

With a drop rate of 0,7% you have a 83% chance to get the precursor (using rares of 30s).

Pretty high chance, but its a lot of money and the chance of gettin zip is still too high…

I have just developed Yalora’s Mystic Forge Simulator.
Here’s how it works.

1. Mail Yalora 300GP
2. Yalora sends you nothing in return
3. Simulation complete

Was it good for you?

Yalora Istairiea.6287:

I have just developed Yalora’s Mystic Forge Simulator.
Here’s how it works.

1. Mail Yalora 300GP
2. Yalora sends you nothing in return
3. Simulation complete

Was it good for you?

You need to send them one crappy no name exotic as their final Mystic Forge “reward” from Zomorros to make the simulation perfect.

Avectius.3271:

I’ve saved up that amount to try and get me a precursor from the toilet. Will I fail hard or is there a chance that I’ll get one and make a profit? What do you guys recommend? I’ve never done this before.

This really depends on what you really expect out of it, if you go in thinking you will 100% get at least 1 pre cursor then you could be disappointed, ive played the forge ALOT, but my last streak left me kinda bored with it, i was up to 3000g and no pre’s back, but i knew the risks, i haven’t played the forge for about 4 months now.

If you can accept that you can put 300G in and get nothing back in return, and enjoy the thrill of the chase that you might strike out, then go for it, if it would bother you at all that you could just throw all 300g away and get nothing, then do not do it.

Remember the golden rule of gambling: The House always wins.

Do not use your gold with the expectation to make profit, because it’s very highly likely you will end up with nothing to show for your investment. Don’t gamble what you aren’t more than happy to lose.

I know people who have dumped thousands upon thousands of gold in to the forge and come away with nothing but bitterness, and I know people that just throw rares in every so often and have got dusk