Guild Wars 2

Well here’s the thing, I’m starting to think that account have a default luck statistic, something like 1 – worst luck , 2 – decent luck, 3 – super mega luck (yeah super mega, lack of a better word at the moment). Some accounts have 1 some 2 and others 3. I’m playing this game since release, actually 3 day of head start. And I’ve been playing it with 5 friends. We’ve been doing everything together most of the time. Recently I finished everything I needed for Twilight except for Onyx Lodestones and well Dusk, so I’m not in a rush until that scavenger hunt thing gets implemented so we’ve decided to start doing TA and CoF runs daily for some money and I have a chance of getting Onyx Cores/Lodes as a bonus. During the past few months I noticed that some of them keep getting rares and even exotics from drops and chests and Mystic Forge quite a lot. While I for example had a terrible luck with rares dropping, not to mention that I never saw an exotic drop, spent a decent amount of gold on MF so I gave up on it eventually. But only recently from these TA/CoF runs I noticed that after like a decent amount of runs (I have 3k TA tokens in my bank, didn’t spend anything) I only got like 4 cores in total 0 lodes, while a friend from the guild has 18 cores and 2 lodes in his bank. And we did every run together. Anyone has any thoughts on this? I don’t feel like raging or anything yet, but something is very odd here. At least from my point of view. One more thing, I keep getting Molten lodes and cores in CoF quite recently like everyone else so I’m guessing the drop chance of those is quite higher, why is that? Just because Twilight needs Onyx the drop for those is extremely low?

Oh, well, don’t complain. You had the same chance than everyone else to get the lucky or unlucky script sticked on your account! (:

I was asking if someone thinks the same way as I am. Some people think my point is valid they also noticed weird stuff like that. If something like this really exists… well I’d be a bit disappointed.

I’ll just leave this here:

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

2 days ago I sort of had the same thought but more like char based because of something odd I noticed. I was playing on my 3rd char an ele and was just mucking about in Orr killing a few things while hoping to find a party to complete his story doing the Arrah dungeon. Anyway so there I was and I got a rare item. He has no Magic Find and on my first char I never got ANY rare or exotic drops until I heard of MF and started using it. Also before this I tried “farming” on my main (engi) with all MF gear for a full day and didn’t get 1 rare drop…..

This got me thinking how can this guy get a rare item without MF and my main with full MF not? I then got bored because I couldn’t find a team to finish his story so I jumped on my 4th Char, a guardian again with no MF and only mid lvls. Bang a rare item! I was thinking wtf? They must have adjusted drops or something because this NEVER happens to me unless I am wearing full mf and even that was some time ago before they started playing with the drop rates.

So I don’t know if they have just changed things recently or if it is a wierd conspiracy thing like char/account based luck thing….

Either way just thought I would throw that out there lol.

I’ve been using full magic find gear from the release, and I pretty much got some rares from time to time, but I got annoyed when a guildy ( a guardian with 0 mf) kept getting rares and few times an exotic, so like somewhere mid December I said screw mf gear and equipped my full CoF set with normal exotic weapons and accessories and drops were pretty much the same, if not a bit better actually. I’d really like to know what’s going on with those loot tables.

Fuz.5621:

I’ll just leave this here:

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

Props to Turbine for pursuing what could have been just a figment of some deranged mind and eventually coming clean on the entire issue.

Every dev could learn something from that example no matter who they are.

Fuz.5621:

I’ll just leave this here:

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

Oh dear after reading that I was reminded of my early days doing dungeons in MF gear and always being the target (for some odd unexplained reason) and downed far too often because of it…..

Switched to toughness gear and am downed far less but I have not done any dungeons in a while to tell if I am still the main target…..

All in all I used to put it down to either:

1 – being an engi and having high prescision (54%) hitting crits every second attack thus I become the biggest threat for the enemy to target.

2 – crap mf gear thus being an easy target to get rid of first.

But now, after reading that info from that link I am getting another conspiracy theory lol….thanks for that.

I agree Character and Account luck can exist, even though it shouldn’t be possible. A guild member of mine and I ran the Halloween dungeon(the easiest example as it was well over 50+ times), he continually got Rares, Exotics, Dye Packs and other useful things including multiple weapon skins. Even though we were in the same group and sometimes different ones, I was running 200% magic find, and sometimes 0% just to see if it made a difference only got a single exotic and a single rare. Easily less than 20% of the drops he got.

Recently I rolled another character, I have gotten 2-3x the rares and exotics I did on my previous main, I am not doing anything different.

Why don’t people understand randomness.

Just because you didn’t get something with 200% MF and did without any doesn’t show anything. Your chances were maybe 0.4% with MF and 0.2% without, and just got luck without.

It’s like being allowed to roll a die 4 times to try and get a 6, and not getting one, when someone else rolls a single die and gets one.

Cheers.

Lankybrit.4598:

Why don’t people understand randomness.

Just because you didn’t get something with 200% MF and did without any doesn’t show anything. Your chances were maybe 0.4% with MF and 0.2% without, and just got luck without.

It’s like being allowed to roll a die 4 times to try and get a 6, and not getting one, when someone else rolls a single die and gets one.

Cheers.

While this may be true it was also the argument often proposed by those that didn’t believe the Wi-Flag existed in the first place.

Just saying…random =/= working as intended.

Well that’s some nice randomness, how long am I randomly gonna have bad luck from the release? I don’t think it’s random. It can’t be random when some people always keep getting something while other get nothing all the time.

Don’t worry, it’s possible that in next run you will get 3 dusk dropped in row

Can i ask how much map completion you and your friends have. It probably don’t effect drop rates at all, but…

Some accounts, including mine, do seem to suffer from a permanent lack of luck. There is some speculation that is could be an erroneous diminished return but there is no way to really tell for certain. Some people seem to have better luck for a short time after updates, and some after the daily resets but it never lasts.

Fuz.5621:

I’ll just leave this here:

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

I sincerely hope someone at Anet reads this.

Its got perma DR written all over it.

Lankybrit.4598:

Why don’t people understand randomness.

It’s pseudo-random. Computers cannot calculate a truly random number — well, unless it gathers data from a natural phenomenon. So likewise, why don’t people understand that? ;P

The pseudo-random algorithm(s) used within GW2, for all we know, could provide favorable “odds” for character-names starting with “Bob”. It’s highly unlikely, obviously, but nonetheless, the RNG is simply a calculation based on unknowns. It’s far from being random, and anything can alter its results.

I can deal with randomness just fine. What I cant deal with is being on the wrong end of it 100% of the time. That isnt random that tells me something is very very wrong.

I have been doing orr runs again a bit and I must say pre Nov 15 I would get (rare) 4-6 per plinx run and the same for 3 pen/shelt runs with a nice bunch of greens and blues.
Now if and I mean IF i get a rare I am happy. That is so sad it isnt funny it barely pays for the waypoint cost. Never had an exotic drop for me ever -chest-JP-dung nothing now way no how 600+hrs in. Just the exploration that gave me exotic.

I am at a point now that I just log in and do my trades on the TP and log off since I cant make money in the open world and play like I want. For all purposes I am finished with this game and I think Bio- I mean Anet needs to look at some things.

I’m beginning to think my guardian is actually a leprechaun. In all 600+ hours of playing my ranger, I never once got an exotic drop. But today, while playing my guardian, I got 3 exotics, a charged lodestone, and a white dye.

It’s official, my ranger is retiring.

I firmly believe that SOMETHING is not right with their randomness, though i dont know if its per character or per account or what.

I have ran FOTM over 500 times(id wager over 600, but no way to know) and was at level 34 fracs a week after they released. EVERYDAY since then i ran 26 and 30, trying to get a fractal greatsword. I have not recieved ONE fractal weapon skin AT ALL. whereas others in my party or guild have 5 or 6 they can’t use, and have only JUST gotten to the level of fractals i am at.

I have since quit running fractals, there is nothing coming out of that dungeon for me.
Why the things weren’t bought with tokens in the first place, like all the other dungeons, is beyond me, and another topic altogether

Lankybrit.4598:

Why don’t people understand randomness.

Why don’t people understand that computers aren’t capable of true randomness.

No sorry OP that is simply false.
Drop rates depend simply on loot tables with percentages; MF increases the chance that your next loots will be of rare tier but that’s about it.

I’m not sure why this speculation comes up in every game, I’ve yet to see any game with this implementation.

Red Falcon.8257:

MF increases the chance that your next loots will be of rare tier but that’s about it.

Actually if you are one of the unlucky ones , magic find lowers drop rate, lowers % equipment drops, and increases % of fines/bags/salvageable. It is talked about many times in different threads and the general conclusion around all those posts is that it is not working “as advertised”.

wildcode.5403:

Red Falcon.8257:

MF increases the chance that your next loots will be of rare tier but that’s about it.

Actually if you are one of the unlucky ones , magic find lowers drop rate, lowers % equipment drops, and increases % of fines/bags/salvageable. It is talked about many times in different threads and the general conclusion around all those posts is that it is not working “as advertised”.

This is just void speculation, and people should stop trying to pass if for a fact.

Fuz.5621:

This is just void speculation, and people should stop trying to pass if for a fact.

It is far from speculation and has been tested time and time again in different threads that covered the issue. There are many many posts of people experiencing better drops rates and quality once they removed magic find. You can start with the numerous closed loot drop issue threads and continue with the thread Anet opened about loot.

One of my guildies got 2 unbreakable choir bells out of 300 or so presents, this being the same guy that gets 2-3 times more rares then i do. I play with my guild allot, and it seems something is wrong with RNG. I’m in the middle of my guild concerning drop rates btw, when running fractals for example, the one “always lucky” guy in our guild (with no magic find btw) gets about 6-7 times more rares then the “unlucky” dude, who has tried magic find food and such, still getting nothing.

Anyone else only getting x3 blues from chests and barely get any greens from mobs?

wildcode.5403:

Fuz.5621:

This is just void speculation, and people should stop trying to pass if for a fact.

It is far from speculation and has been tested time and time again in different threads that covered the issue. There are many many posts of people experiencing better drops rates and quality once they removed magic find. You can start with the numerous closed loot drop issue threads and continue with the thread Anet opened about loot.

I’ve read them.
Fact: There’s a real big problem with loots, drops and DR. This is beyond any doubt (and it’s probably intended to push gems sales).
But apart from that, I’ve never seen any extensive test of the full/none/various percentage of MF gear. Just some subjective feelings.
So, no. I’m not convinced and people should not pass it for a fact.

I was going to quote a bunch of posts here but I thought better of it and just say this instead.

There is the word luck and random being thrown around here like candy. Both are being used incorrectly as neither can exist in a computer game.

Luck is not real… it is a figment of human imagination. Probabilities exist nothing more.

Randomness in any computer program is impossible. They are using algorithms to “simulate” randomness. If computers operated on random principles of programming they simply would not work. You tell a machine to pick a random number from an infinite of finite pool and it will always use a rule or a method to do so. That precludes the possibility of it being random. It may seem random because of nature of very small probabilities but it is still being selected by the application and not randomly “drawn from a hat”.

Unless there is something affecting the “game” (and I mean the game theory behind the math) then all things should be equal. That is exactly how they are selling this game. Not under the pretense that certain players would be assigned more “luck” or loot by purchasing GW2. The probability of anyone having more “luck” than another player is a total load of crap OR OR OR the company is really fooling with the game theory behind this math and making it a unbalance or unfair game. If that is the case then we are being cheated and lied to. I do not believe this to be the case and if it was found out and proved ANET would be done as a company if they did it with purpose. Most likely sued and possibly end up in criminal court.

Simply put you should have the same probability of winning each and every time you use the Mystic forge. There is no way to gain advantage over it in any way. It is like any casino game. They are designed with math in mind that gives the house a slight (or not so slight) advantage over the players. They do not hide this fact and anyone that does not understand or believe that is just being childish. The Magic Forge is a casino plain and simple and in some ways so is the entire game and most games that have drops or chance of commit opportunities.

Like it love it hate it you have zero control over and all this Lucky and luck and bragging is just plain ignorant. Don’t wonder why things fail around you if you believe in this sort of thing and don’t wonder why people scoff at you when you are the source of your own idiocy.

I disagree personally that Magic Find is anything but a placebo until ANET releases the theory and math on how it works in relation to their base game theory.

flame me all you like I have a 100% infraction rate so far on every post I have made.

Thanks ANET I like to be consistent unlike your drop rate and loot tables.

jbrother.1340:

Luck is not real… it is a figment of human imagination. Probabilities exist nothing more.

Randomness in any computer program is impossible. They are using algorithms to “simulate” randomness.

While I agree with your logic, ArenaNet has referred to the loot issue on occasion as “luck”.

I would like to speculate for a second and say with so many people experiencing permanent “bad luck” and others around them experiencing “good luck”, what ever ArenaNet use as the random seed could be system related. I tried both in Windows 7 and OSX on the same system and am having the same “bad luck” in both.

It goes both ways. We once had a guildie whose luck was a little too good. His first time in Orr he found Dusk in a chest (and didn’t know what it was so salvaged it), and whenever he went farming sparks he’d leave with ten lodestones in under an hour…

Though because he was so lucky he got into a set routine and anet thought he was a bot so he got banned haha. He lost his passion for the game after that so we haven’t seen him since.

I have to say that my account has ‘seemed’ to be doomed with bad luck from beta. It just seems to get worse. However and it’s a big HOWEVER… RNG is factored on really big sample sizes.
Just have a look at the Mystic Clover chances as an example. It was said there was an ~ 33% chance to get them. That is not on an account basis but on a game-wide basis. Meaning that out of millions of tries the probability is 33%. So you could be the lucky schmuck that gets them 100% or the unlucky schmuck that gets them 0% out of 100 tries. Not because the probability has changed but because the sample size is simply too small.
And yes I just totally oversimplified and such. I just wanted to make the point that probability is working on a large scale in the game. It just seems to some of us that we got the ‘short end of the stick’ and can’t catch a break.
600+ hours and I still haven’t seen an exotic drop for me aside from karka chest and map completion. That doesn’t meant the loot tables are out of whack, just that I happen to be unlucky. I still have my doubts about how magic find works or how grouping and fast kills produce better loot quality but that is another topic.

wildcode.5403:

jbrother.1340:

Luck is not real… it is a figment of human imagination. Probabilities exist nothing more.

Randomness in any computer program is impossible. They are using algorithms to “simulate” randomness.

While I agree with your logic, ArenaNet has referred to the loot issue on occasion as “luck”.

I would like to speculate for a second and say with so many people experiencing permanent “bad luck” and others around them experiencing “good luck”, what ever ArenaNet use as the random seed could be system related. I tried both in Windows 7 and OSX on the same system and am having the same “bad luck” in both.

They or anyone else can claim or invoke “luck”.

It in no way makes it real. It never will never can never does.

It is a fallacy.

ANET has chosen a word nothing more. They cannot change the laws of physics even in a localized location. At least not with the abilities they possess.

We live in a quantum universe. That defeats the possibility of luck or future prediction.

We have to take into account this:

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qt-uncertainty/

Everything in the universe comes back to atomic or subatomic particles. Every living and non living thing that exists that we have seen or know of in human existence and science is made up of these things. I am not a physicist by trade but it seems obvious to me that Heisenberg was and is correct. This may seem like an odd argument to the word “luck” but I feel it applies.

Fuz.5621:

Lankybrit.4598:

Why don’t people understand randomness.

Why don’t people understand that computers aren’t capable of true randomness.

Yes I do. A psudeo-random sequence is generated. Then it’s used in the game. But the pattern of that sequence based on the seed is psuedo-random and you cannot predict it. This has no bearing at all to the

Say the next 5 values in the sequence are 56, 04, 67, 91, 99 out of 100. Then the first 4 could be the guy needing 92 or more with MF, and the last one could be guy who needed 96 without MF.

You guys don’t seem to realize that pseudo-random IS effectively random for any conversation ninvolving luck.

Cheers.

Semantics aside, what ever method ArenaNet are using to determine if you get loot, and what loot you get, seems flawed due to the overwhelming evidence that some people are consistently worse off than others with the current method.

wildcode.5403:

overwhelming evidence

Let’s not be so hasty

lol I kinda know how the OP feels…I know a couple people that seem to get everything, whilst the rest of us get a good drop about once a year. Oddly enough, the luck they had in GW seems to have carried over to GW2.

Fuz.5621:

I’ll just leave this here:

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

So here’s the thing about this example: it’s a valid justification that no one should take for granted the idea that there are no bugs in the RNG maths, but this kind of situation is unlikely to happen under ANet’s nose when it comes to loot.

The reason the whole Wi-Flagged thing went unnoticed was because time spent under aggro isn’t something that would get logged. Staff assigned to game balancing might be seeing statistics like death rates, skill usage rates… all sorts of data from the combat logs but having more aggro from the RNG isn’t easy to spot; you might notice it if the same subset of players were being targeted by enemy skills all the time but that could be down to poor aggro management by those players, or any number of explanations.

When it comes to loot drops, you can expect* that is something Arenanet are monitoring very closely. Not only do their economists want to see how much is entering the system via loot, but they want to see the distribution of it. They want to monitor the effectiveness of magic find to ensure it’s weighted at a fair opportunity cost to other gear statistics. They also want to check that their algorithms are distributing loot randomly but in a way that isn’t creating massively lucky or unlucky players except in those few places where it’s supposed to feel like a lottery (and if some people are disproportionately and repeatedly winning those lotteries, you can bet they’d notice), and they very likely want an ideal situation where some people feel lucky, but no-one feels unlucky.

I’m not saying it’s not important to call out if you’re under the perception that luck in this game appears to be skewed, because perception is exactly what they want to be managing. Just don’t put too much stock into the idea of a loot distribution bug. It’s more likely loot distribution tuning if anything.

*Please note that I said expect, not assume.

Still think this game is to mutch luck based.
Wat makes it kinda unfair if you spend 1000 rare’s done tons of event’s
200 exotics and stil not get you’re precurser when some one else only spend like 4 rare and get it.
Dont like luck based game’s at all because im always unlucky.
Wat makes me give up on legendary’s because the precurser are like 600gold now
exploit ftw ha?

Il stick araund because there aint any other good mmo’s out yet
But wil drop this game in a hearthbeat when a good one come’s out.
And not saying it’s a bad game but it cant beat gw1 system.

Get gold get mats get armor/weapens at a vendor not a bloody exploiter.!

Get Scammed!

Shaolin.7981:

Still think this game is to mutch luck based.
Wat makes it kinda unfair if you spend 1000 rare’s done tons of event’s
200 exotics and stil not get you’re precurser when some one else only spend like 4 rare and get it.
Dont like luck based game’s at all because im always unlucky.
Wat makes me give up on legendary’s because the precurser are like 600gold now
exploit ftw ha?

Il stick araund because there aint any other good mmo’s out yet
But wil drop this game in a hearthbeat when a good one come’s out.
And not saying it’s a bad game but it cant beat gw1 system.

Get gold get mats get armor/weapens at a vendor not a bloody exploiter.!

Get Scammed!

if you sold those rares you would already have had 200G
those 200 exotics would have given you at least another 200G
If everyone would be super lucky, or if luck was locked as in “everyone gets a certain amount of yellows a day” the economy in the game would crumble down because every item would be super cheap.

Computer program can never be truly random.
They may look random, but in fact they’re scripted to “look random”.

Some people can play for 5k hour and never see anything worth 100+g up dropped, and some people may get multiple precursors in a short period of time.

Your account is bound to this none random RNG, and you’re destined to spend more effort than some of the more fortunate accounts to get the same amount of good drops. This applies to life, so does it apply to virtual world.

Do not be sad, for you are not alone. I, as well as other unfortunate souls, will always be with you.

Aomine.5012:

Computer program can never be truly random.
They may look random, but in fact they’re scripted to “look random”.

Some people can play for 5k hour and never see anything worth 100+g up dropped, and some people may get multiple precursors in a short period of time.

Your account is bound to this none random RNG, and you’re destined to spend more effort than some of the more fortunate accounts to get the same amount of good drops. This applies to life, so does it apply to virtual world.

Do not be sad, for you are not alone. I, as well as other unfortunate souls, will always be with you.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Aomine.5012:

Computer program can never be truly random.
They may look random, but in fact they’re scripted to “look random”.

Some people can play for 5k hour and never see anything worth 100+g up dropped, and some people may get multiple precursors in a short period of time.

Your account is bound to this none random RNG, and you’re destined to spend more effort than some of the more fortunate accounts to get the same amount of good drops. This applies to life, so does it apply to virtual world.

Do not be sad, for you are not alone. I, as well as other unfortunate souls, will always be with you.

I think I’m not the original one who bumped it.
I saw it on first page and respond to it, that’s all.

Aomine.5012:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Aomine.5012:

Computer program can never be truly random.
They may look random, but in fact they’re scripted to “look random”.

Some people can play for 5k hour and never see anything worth 100+g up dropped, and some people may get multiple precursors in a short period of time.

Your account is bound to this none random RNG, and you’re destined to spend more effort than some of the more fortunate accounts to get the same amount of good drops. This applies to life, so does it apply to virtual world.

Do not be sad, for you are not alone. I, as well as other unfortunate souls, will always be with you.

I think I’m not the original one who bumped it.
I saw it on first page and respond to it, that’s all.

If you say so, but the post above yours is a year old.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Aomine.5012:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Aomine.5012:

Computer program can never be truly random.
They may look random, but in fact they’re scripted to “look random”.

Some people can play for 5k hour and never see anything worth 100+g up dropped, and some people may get multiple precursors in a short period of time.

Your account is bound to this none random RNG, and you’re destined to spend more effort than some of the more fortunate accounts to get the same amount of good drops. This applies to life, so does it apply to virtual world.

Do not be sad, for you are not alone. I, as well as other unfortunate souls, will always be with you.

I think I’m not the original one who bumped it.
I saw it on first page and respond to it, that’s all.

If you say so, but the post above yours is a year old.

They probably deleted it. Do you think I’ll just press like the 20th page and just randomly respond to an old post ?

Aomine.5012:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Aomine.5012:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Aomine.5012:

Computer program can never be truly random.
They may look random, but in fact they’re scripted to “look random”.

Some people can play for 5k hour and never see anything worth 100+g up dropped, and some people may get multiple precursors in a short period of time.

Your account is bound to this none random RNG, and you’re destined to spend more effort than some of the more fortunate accounts to get the same amount of good drops. This applies to life, so does it apply to virtual world.

Do not be sad, for you are not alone. I, as well as other unfortunate souls, will always be with you.

I think I’m not the original one who bumped it.
I saw it on first page and respond to it, that’s all.

If you say so, but the post above yours is a year old.

They probably deleted it. Do you think I’ll just press like the 20th page and just randomly respond to an old post ?

/shrug

People have before. Why do you think I had that picture already set up? I’ve used it on other threads that were resurrected after months to years from the last post.

And if someone had responded and deleted then they pulled it from whatever page it was on and then posted, so yes, people do resurect threads from 20 pages (or whatever) back.

I do believe this so much, just hit 800 days on my account, only 1500 hours. 290% luck and i havnt got an exotic worth more than the 7g range ever. Maybe 2 charged lodestones in my total game time. No precursor. No nothing.