Guild Wars 2

I swear some account are flagged for good Mystic Forge rate, I knew a couple of ppl that just pull out precursor one after another, while other spent 500g+ and get nothing, then I also have this friend that pull out 6 precursor while spenting less than 200g at the forge.

Not to insult you or anything but this is just a conspiracy theory. As it does not really make sense. Why?

1. Arenanet has no reason to flag a account for good mystic forge rate…
2. Its just the unfairness of RNG, a casual player can get 99999 precursors while a harcore player get 0. its the anet so called step to help out the casuals. so time spent matters less….

Edit: I belive you didnt get my 2 point right. The problem is that the casuals get better or same loot as us harcore players.

but they’re not casual, they play just as much.

It’s funny how every time one of these threads comes up it’s always a friend or a guild member who gets loads of precusrors. We never hear from someone who is lucky themselves.

Maybe that’s it – every time you post on the forum it reduces your chance of getting a precursor. Makes about as much sense as the other theories.

Yup everytime you post you replace a would be precursor with a pearl weapon. your all screwed for life now! :P

some people win the lottery big time three times in their lifetime, others get struck by lightning two times. That´s randomness for you. With very low chances, it takes a very long time / a lot of attempts to arrive at a statistical average. No, I doubt there are “cursed” accounts (and if there were, I bet mine would be one of them :P )

This again?

Come back when you have data for at least triple figure accounts have all tested a 5 figure sum of gold on the forge.

Big Tower.5423:

Not to insult you or anything but this is just a conspiracy theory. As it does not really make sense. Why?

1. Arenanet has no reason to flag a account for good mystic forge rate…
2. Its just the unfairness of RNG, a casual player can get 99999 precursors while a harcore player get 0. its the anet so called step to help out the casuals. so time spent matters less….

It makes perfect sense for them to do this, first we have no way of proving they do not do this, second, it allows them to keep filtering in ultra high end pre cursors, it makes no sense for the casual player to get all the great drops and the hardcore ones get screwed, its the hardcore ones that are keeping there game going. The RnG system is broken, sadly by the time anet realise this and finally acknowledge this, another game will have come out that will have sucked most of there gamers away.

Ok I Did It.2854:

it makes no sense for the casual player to get all the great drops and the hardcore ones get screwed, its the hardcore ones that are keeping there game going.

You’re right, it does make no sense.

And that’s why everybody has equal chance at everything in the game. This is the most ridiculous claim I’ve ever read on the forums.

Not only are you insinuating that accounts are flagged for RNG, but you’re also claiming that AN individually tags them as “Hardcore” or “Casual”.

Also, as a rule, it’s the casual playerbase that runs the game. The hardcore usually don’t support the gem store through real world funding as they already have a stock of gold they can easily move into gems. This is usually because a casual player has a job while Mr Hardcore is a student or unemployed, thus the reason for having almost limitless time to play while being unable to afford providing the gem store with any meaningful support.

Please.

I wouldn’t say flagged myself, but having two accounts I have to say the account I play less gets better loot then the account I play the most, my main account has only had 3 exotic’s drop in over 4,511 hours play while the lest played has had more as well as ascended chest drops in WvW. So for me it is the lest played account thats better off.

As far as I’m concerned the less hours I play per day the better my luck is the next day.

I guess my account is blessed by the RNG gods!

http://imgur.com/a/csqYt

Gwen.7619:

I wouldn’t say flagged myself, but having two accounts I have to say the account I play less gets better loot then the account I play the most, my main account has only had 3 exotic’s drop in over 4,511 hours play while the lest played has had more as well as ascended chest drops in WvW. So for me it is the lest played account thats better off.

As far as I’m concerned the less hours I play per day the better my luck is the next day.

While I doubt your validity of 3 exotic drops in 4.5k hours, as that is quite ridiculous and you’re probably being hyperbolic, it could be logical that there is diminishing returns linked to play time, akin to “resting” experience in other MMOs.

It’s fair to believe maybe increased play time in a period does lead to poorer quality loot, but tied to a particular account is unrealistic and pathetic to believe.

The people who have very few dropped exotics aren’t doing the right type of content, have low MF or both.

If you look in my sig I recorded all exotic drops from mobs (not including from chests). The more mobs you kill increases the chances of rolling loot for exotics. So a person who farms lots of mobs will have more rolling chances than someone who focuses on dungeons or WvW.

I have about 3500 hours playtime and only started recording a year ago.

Rough total of exotic drops: 153 exotics.

Vol.7601:

I guess my account is blessed by the RNG gods!

http://imgur.com/a/csqYt

I want your account. T-T

It’s rather remarkable that you seem to have gotten 4 from a zerg event. You do it often then? I never do any of the world bosses/champ trains/temples.

Vol.7601:

I guess my account is blessed by the RNG gods!

http://imgur.com/a/csqYt

No, it’s just you played probably for more than 3000 hours now, farming gold (or spending most of the time at TP) and putting it almost all to this lottery fountain. (I can see your 1000g in inventory)
Please, no offence, I just remember you.

Danikat.8537:

It’s funny how every time one of these threads comes up it’s always a friend or a guild member who gets loads of precusrors. We never hear from someone who is lucky themselves.

Maybe that’s it – every time you post on the forum it reduces your chance of getting a precursor. Makes about as much sense as the other theories.

I only clicked this topic because I got my 2nd precursor from the forge in a month just last night. Also, because I love being controversial, both of them came DIRECTLY after receiving an exotic drop. A month ago, I was in wvw, got an exotic, immediately left for LA, bought 12g worth of rare axes, got frostfang. This time I was doing world completion in Brisban wildlands, got exotic, wp’d to vigil keep, bought 20g of exotic swords, zap on 2nd try. Its a conspiracy man! And may the RNG gods smile on you all.

Gwen.7619:

I wouldn’t say flagged myself, but having two accounts I have to say the account I play less gets better loot then the account I play the most, my main account has only had 3 exotic’s drop in over 4,511 hours play while the lest played has had more as well as ascended chest drops in WvW. So for me it is the lest played account thats better off.

As far as I’m concerned the less hours I play per day the better my luck is the next day.

The reasoning behind that is a system Anet uses in this game called DR aka diminishing returns. It’s a dated concept that should have never made it to release especially since the game is heavily based on mat farming or farming of some sort.

In terms of the Mystic forge:

Player research into the chance of receiving a precursor when combining four exotic weapons of the same type estimates the probability at 0.79% with 2901 trials.

Thus why I don’t bother wasting my time or gold with that trash can.

Sirendor.1394:

Vol.7601:

I guess my account is blessed by the RNG gods!

http://imgur.com/a/csqYt

I want your account. T-T

It’s rather remarkable that you seem to have gotten 4 from a zerg event. You do it often then? I never do any of the world bosses/champ trains/temples.

world bosses/temples are good for sustained income everyday. I don’t do them for drops but for the guaranteed rare.

But yes, zerg content is the best for loot because of the increased rolls for loot.

Mortifer.2946:

Vol.7601:

I guess my account is blessed by the RNG gods!

http://imgur.com/a/csqYt

No, it’s just you played probably for more than 3000 hours now, farming gold (or spending most of the time at TP) and putting it almost all to this lottery fountain. (I can see your 1000g in inventory)
Please, no offence, I just remember you.

+3500 hours.

Nearly all of my gold comes from farming. I don’t flip on the TP, but speculate, so all my gold that I farmed for quite some time is invested temporarily (about 4000g).

I guess it’s no different than earning a lot of $$$ as a doctor/lawyer/accountant, and then putting the majority of your salary into GICs/Bonds

Zerg farming is great for loot, as mentioned.

Also farming broken events that spawn endless mobs is great for loot too, evidently.

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Zerg farming is great for loot, as mentioned.

Also farming broken events that spawn endless mobs is great for loot too, evidently.

RIP Lyssa Farm

It’s funny how the “500g+” number is often used to express bad MF returns.
first, I assume you’re talking about Dawn/Dusk? because it’s likely a case of them buying expensive rare/exotic greatswords off the TP to throw into the MF, to which I would suggest they find a more efficient way (could of paid only 300g for the same number of tries).
second, why would you expect to get a precursor for less than the cost of buying it outright? If it was clearly cheaper to MF for it, people would just do that.
third, you can’t take a single drop from a rng system and say that’s how it is. People that “pull out precursor one after another” are not mentioning the hundreds of times they get junk. the accounts with “good Mystic Forge rate” are simply those that roll the MF 5,000 times instead of 50.
come talk to me if you go 2000g+ without a precursor

Flissy.4093:

Gwen.7619:

I wouldn’t say flagged myself, but having two accounts I have to say the account I play less gets better loot then the account I play the most, my main account has only had 3 exotic’s drop in over 4,511 hours play while the lest played has had more as well as ascended chest drops in WvW. So for me it is the lest played account thats better off.

As far as I’m concerned the less hours I play per day the better my luck is the next day.

While I doubt your validity of 3 exotic drops in 4.5k hours, as that is quite ridiculous and you’re probably being hyperbolic, it could be logical that there is diminishing returns linked to play time, akin to “resting” experience in other MMOs.

It’s fair to believe maybe increased play time in a period does lead to poorer quality loot, but tied to a particular account is unrealistic and pathetic to believe.

Sorry I didn’t mean to sound Like I’m whining about It, only was sharing my experience to say I don’t believe accounts are flagged.

The problem with topics like this is they’re subject to huge reporter bias.

For example I recently went through my entire sales history on the TP and I was really surprised by how many exotics I’d gotten. If you’d asked me I would have said I’ve had about 3 since launch, but the real total was more than double that. The problem is most exotics aren’t actually very valuable so they’re not memorable drops and you don’t remember them.

I got one last week during one of the LA events. I sold it straight away and now I can’t remember what it was called, what type of weapon it was or how much I sold it for (between 1 and 2g).

By contrast I still remember getting an Abyss dye on a low level alt, I even remember where I was when it happened and that it dropped from a scale. I have no idea how many rares my main has gotten, because getting rare drops on a high level character isn’t surprising, but getting one (that’s actually valuable) on a low level alt is very memorable.

Gwen.7619:

I wouldn’t say flagged myself, but having two accounts I have to say the account I play less gets better loot then the account I play the most, my main account has only had 3 exotic’s drop in over 4,511 hours play while the lest played has had more as well as ascended chest drops in WvW. So for me it is the lest played account thats better off.

As far as I’m concerned the less hours I play per day the better my luck is the next day.

Is this based on recording all your drops on both accounts, or based on memory?

I suspect it stands out more when you get drops on a secondary account because you don’t expect it. Just like I remember getting an Abyss dye on an alt in a low level zone, but not all the rare dyes I’ve gotten on my main because that’s where I expect to get my good drops.

PattyCakeChamp.5268:

Danikat.8537:

It’s funny how every time one of these threads comes up it’s always a friend or a guild member who gets loads of precusrors. We never hear from someone who is lucky themselves.

Maybe that’s it – every time you post on the forum it reduces your chance of getting a precursor. Makes about as much sense as the other theories.

I only clicked this topic because I got my 2nd precursor from the forge in a month just last night. Also, because I love being controversial, both of them came DIRECTLY after receiving an exotic drop. A month ago, I was in wvw, got an exotic, immediately left for LA, bought 12g worth of rare axes, got frostfang. This time I was doing world completion in Brisban wildlands, got exotic, wp’d to vigil keep, bought 20g of exotic swords, zap on 2nd try. Its a conspiracy man! And may the RNG gods smile on you all.

And how many times have you fed the same amount of rares (or more) into the forge and NOT gotten a precursor?

If these are your only attempts, the only times you’ve ever combined rares in the forge, then I’d agree you’re lucky. But if you’ve tried the same at other times and got nothing worth mentioning then it’s not all that exceptional.

Azreell.1568:

Gwen.7619:

I wouldn’t say flagged myself, but having two accounts I have to say the account I play less gets better loot then the account I play the most, my main account has only had 3 exotic’s drop in over 4,511 hours play while the lest played has had more as well as ascended chest drops in WvW. So for me it is the lest played account thats better off.

As far as I’m concerned the less hours I play per day the better my luck is the next day.

The reasoning behind that is a system Anet uses in this game called DR aka diminishing returns. It’s a dated concept that should have never made it to release especially since the game is heavily based on mat farming or farming of some sort.

In terms of the Mystic forge:

Player research into the chance of receiving a precursor when combining four exotic weapons of the same type estimates the probability at 0.79% with 2901 trials.

Thus why I don’t bother wasting my time or gold with that trash can.

Diminishing returns doesn’t affect the mystic forge at all and should have only a minimal effect on the number of exotics that drop. All it does is if you spend more than an hour in the same location doing the same activities (like the champ train in Queensdale) the number and value of your drops will gradually reduce. But it’s re-set if you switch zones or characters.

It is a bit confusing because some people use diminishing returns to refer to several other systems, like a lot of the once-per-day rewards (particularly from dungeons). But it should only refer to that one system.

Azreell.1568:

Gwen.7619:

I wouldn’t say flagged myself, but having two accounts I have to say the account I play less gets better loot then the account I play the most, my main account has only had 3 exotic’s drop in over 4,511 hours play while the lest played has had more as well as ascended chest drops in WvW. So for me it is the lest played account thats better off.

As far as I’m concerned the less hours I play per day the better my luck is the next day.

The reasoning behind that is a system Anet uses in this game called DR aka diminishing returns. It’s a dated concept that should have never made it to release especially since the game is heavily based on mat farming or farming of some sort.

In terms of the Mystic forge:

Player research into the chance of receiving a precursor when combining four exotic weapons of the same type estimates the probability at 0.79% with 2901 trials.

Thus why I don’t bother wasting my time or gold with that trash can.

Thank you for the good information you provided)

When players play with others for an extended period of time, they will start to notice differences in the accounts. As a guild leader of 6 years I have w/o question noticed that some players get better drops and some worse consistently over time. It is so evident that it’s predictable. For example 10 of us go in to a zerg farm event and we can predict who will have the best loot at the end with scary accuracy even though they have lower mf and run less than optimal tagging gear.

It’s the patterns that emerge over time that fly right in the face of accounts not being marked. You can tell me it’s rng all you want but I’d be willing to bet you I can predict which accounts will have better loot of the ones I’m familiar with. Would you be willing to bet against me?

In response to Danikat (lazy and am on phone), in total id say 200g, and that’s a high estimate. My system is every 3 weeks to a month (since I came back in august) I buy 12g in rares or 20g in exotics to throw away. But regardless the point of my post is that RNG is RNG, just in a trolly manner :P