Guild Wars 2

Bandit.8279:

Over 4,000 hours and 2 pre drops. I like to kill everything and not skip over mobs kitten many do. Both drops have come from trash mobs.

I have also purchased several off the tp and got a lucky forge drop. But only those two open world drops.

I like this guy if you are NA, can we do full dungeon clears?

Brother Grimm.5176:

If you roll 100 – 20 sided die, what are the odds you will roll a 2000?

If you think the odds are better after the 10,000 roll than the first roll, I have found your problem with this entire thread.

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

Spot on. Odds have no memory. It’s like flipping a coin. You have 50% chance heads, 50% chance tails. If you’ve flipped tails 6 or 7 times already, you still have 50% Chance of each with your next flip.

I got one quite quickly from the TP, which is I believe the intended way to get them…

Subutex.2416:

530 days, 2 precursors from loot bags.
Both The Lover – the first was from a Frostgorge Sound champion bag and the latest was from a champion bag looted from the chest of nightmares in Silverwastes.

Never played the toilet, never will.

Got a third one yesterday from a Vinewrath champ bag, the Carcharias.

5.7k hrs. 1x Forge, 1x drop.

1700, no forge, no drop

penelopehannibal.8947:

Brother Grimm.5176:

If you roll 100 – 20 sided die, what are the odds you will roll a 2000?

If you think the odds are better after the 10,000 roll than the first roll, I have found your problem with this entire thread.

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

Spot on. Odds have no memory. It’s like flipping a coin. You have 50% chance heads, 50% chance tails. If you’ve flipped tails 6 or 7 times already, you still have 50% Chance of each with your next flip.

It’s like the one Asura in Rata Sum who gets asked what the winner of the Snaff Prize next year is going to be.
The conversation is:
-“New and improved golem designs?”
-“You make the same prediction every year.”
-“Perhaps, but the odds of being correct are continuing to improve.”
I always have to facepalm when I’m at the weaponsmithing station, something like this coming from an Asura.

Also
3046h
1 Mystic Toilet Dusk

4,600 hrs
15,000 APs
900 days…

Zero Precursors
Zero Ascended Chests
Zero Etched Weapons
/sigh

Yalora Istairiea.6287:

4,600 hrs
15,000 APs
900 days…

Zero Precursors
Zero Ascended Chests
Zero Etched Weapons
/sigh

OOOOUUUUCCCCH…

Hell I got my first asc chest at like day 5. HEHE… Didn’t think much of it at the time…

Brother Grimm.5176:

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

I wouldn’t say people don’t grasp the concept of the RNG, it’s just that it’s hard not to grouse about how inherently unfair the RNG is when rewarding time and effort (that is to say it doesn’t).

Fortunately that will be solved by the precursor crafting mastery, so people can complain slightly less about it.

Pandaman.4758:

Brother Grimm.5176:

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

I wouldn’t say people don’t grasp the concept of the RNG, it’s just that it’s hard not to grouse about how inherently unfair the RNG is when rewarding time and effort (that is to say it doesn’t).

People not being able to grasp this concept is more common than you might think. Just look up Monte Carlo fallacy.

3049.

2 drops. One from boss chest and another from random mob in fractals

1,864 hours over the past 898 days.

0 from forge, 0 from drops.

I have over 6500 hours over the max possible time and around 200MF.

I have never got anything drop worth more than 20 gold. More than 5g is extremely rare. Most of what I got all the time can only be sold by 50copper-2.50 silver. Rares mostly worth less than 30 silver, exotics mostly around 50-70 silver.

metaldude.4132:

I feel ashamed..

875 hours
3 drops (2 x lover, 1 x rodgorts flame..all 2 weeks ago within 10 minutes..MF)

This is what I love about RNG. (by love I mean absolutely loath!)

4217 hours : 0 pre.
Most expensive thing I’ve had is a lotus node from a BLC, which noone wants to buy and the price has fallen a lot in the last week as well

I think judging from the very mixed hours/precursor ratio from people, we can all conclude now that precursor entitlement is nothing to do with how many hours we’ve played. I’ve made four legendaries in my xxxx hours of gameplay, and all four precursors I purchased.

I’m still happy with the game.

4011 hours played, 0 precursors.

4k+ hours 1 Chaos Gun from 4 random rares about 7 months ago. Soon Quip…..soon.

4628 hours 2 both were gems -gold- tons of rares

1299 hours, I got Storm from the mystic forge flushing random rares.

2.4 k hours, 890 days 1 precursor.

Anecdotal stuff: It was the Howl. I got it off a boss in AC story. I also sold it for 500g.

Just over 1500 hours and 2 pre’s – both within the last month. Rifle and warhorn.

1395h or so. I pulled Zap from the MF two days ago when I was tossing in swords from AC tokens so I could get something to sell. That’s the only one is gotten so far.

Nearly 4k hours. 5 from the toilet, 2 from chests (1 in arah, 1 from teq)

Only Pre to “drop” was at 5,127hrs in a fotm 19 on a solo run in snowblind fotm.

Ive gotten a few from MF with dungeon tokens and a Lucky one in the MF with 4 exotics trying to Spike my friend.. and it worked..

penelopehannibal.8947:

9,393 hours 20 minutes across all characters

Does math… O_O

For me, ~2700, zero precursors

Around 2.8k hours. I got 1 precursor drop around 2.5k hours. I got Rage from a champion box. Of all the pres….whomp whomp.

As a note: I’m not sure what the purpose of this thread is. Pres are rare enough that you are going to see some very varying results in this thread.

Yalora Istairiea.6287:

4,600 hrs
15,000 APs
900 days…

Zero Precursors
Zero Ascended Chests
Zero Etched Weapons
/sigh

Wow…our even more unlucky than me…at least I have had 4 ascended chests drop (sadly 3 had utterly useless rings in).

5331 hrs and 17 mins – 0 precursors from drop nor forge, I bought one

i gotta say when you toss stuff into the forge souldbind it first put a diffrent rune in it, it seems to help

3800 hours I think it was… And no Prec…

My brother about 300 Hours and 1 Prec.

2969 hours 55 minutes over the past 900 days.

0 precursors, the best drops I have was the Pyre dye from a BLC and 1 ascended chest, I can’t remember any other drops worth more than 20g. I am happy if I get a drop worth 5 g, which is not that often.

840~ hrs

1 drop from MF
0 drop from Mob
1 drop from Trading Post

5651 across both accounts, nothing.

5,491 – 0 drops

4475 hrs – 1 drop from mob (zap)

2 from MF (both The Legend), from what I can guess based on the number of rares and exotics I have thrown in I have had about what I’d expect.

I have four completed legendaries and 3 precursors waiting to be upgraded. I have never paid more than 200g for a precursor off the tp.

Relevance between /age and precursors gotten?

I have 4467 hours and 0 precursors from normal gameplay. To me that’s the only relevant comparison with /age.

Then I have 1 precursor from the final reward chest when Southsun Cove was introduced in the game. That was a one time special event that had an extremely high chance for precursors (compared to any other way of getting one). I don’t ount that as a drop from gameplay.

Then I have 4 precursors from the Forge (putting the drops of rares/exotics I get into the Forge – never buying anything to put there). The number of precursor you get from the Forge is not relevant to /age – it’s more relevant to how many times you try the Forge… For me it has been 1,0 % precursors from Exotic attempts and 0,16 % precursors from Rare attempts.

375 hours 15 mins

0 Pre

2812 hours

0 drop
3 MF (2* dusk, 1* dawn – thousands of gold spent)

Reaching 5k, my only legit drop was a Howl in Orr, dropped from a Risen Grub. I’ve bought the pres I wanted from TP (The Legend and Storm).

5475.
no precursor drops, no MF precursors as well.

3239 hours….
1 drop and 5 or 6 from MF

4,200 hours
nothing, not even from Karka event.

played since beta

Played roughly 2800 hrs since launch….
0 precursors to show for it.
I only play with the mystic forge when it’s a daily achievement. So the chances of getting one there are slim and none.

I’m disappointed that I haven’t received one yet, but not too upset about it since it’s all really based on RNG (or grinding out the gold in dungeons to buy off TP)

I fear the precursor collections that are coming up in HoT will be extremely difficult…ie 1000 hours of grinding out this, that and the other of very difficult, coordinated combat for a single precursor. Then you still need to spend another 1000 hours and 1000 gold for mats and gated content to craft the darn thing into a legendary.

Thankfully I’m rather content with the skins my characters are currently running around with, so not sure if I’ll even be motivated enough to try for the collections.

2,100 hours played, 2 precursors dropped (both Rage). One from guild missions, one from some BG kitten in WvW.

5732 hours 3 drops here:-)

6300 hours.
1 “Rage” drop from a mob centaur at the end of the Harathi chain… and no, not from a boss chest… a mob!

That was about a year and a half ago now.

Around 4300 hours played.

1 Precursor (The Hunter, dropped from WvW Veteran Guard at inner Hills)

1.424 hours.

1 percursor dropped

a bit over 2k hours, 1pre