/Age and precursor drop

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Posted by: Yumiko Ishida.3769

Yumiko Ishida.3769

Over 4,000 hours and 2 pre drops. I like to kill everything and not skip over mobs kitten many do. Both drops have come from trash mobs.

I have also purchased several off the tp and got a lucky forge drop. But only those two open world drops.

I like this guy if you are NA, can we do full dungeon clears?

Yumiko Emi Ishida 80 Ele, Hikari Kyoko Ishida 80 Guard TC-NA. Active RPer of NA megaserver.

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Posted by: penelopehannibal.8947

penelopehannibal.8947

If you roll 100 – 20 sided die, what are the odds you will roll a 2000?

If you think the odds are better after the 10,000 roll than the first roll, I have found your problem with this entire thread.

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

Spot on. Odds have no memory. It’s like flipping a coin. You have 50% chance heads, 50% chance tails. If you’ve flipped tails 6 or 7 times already, you still have 50% Chance of each with your next flip.

Blood & Merlot [Wine]

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Posted by: KyreneZA.8617

KyreneZA.8617

I got one quite quickly from the TP, which is I believe the intended way to get them…

Recently returned to…
Aurora Glade some random MegaServer™, always being asked to volunteer for that buff…
Ranger | Necromancer | Warrior | Engineer | Thief

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Posted by: Subutex.2416

Subutex.2416

530 days, 2 precursors from loot bags.
Both The Lover – the first was from a Frostgorge Sound champion bag and the latest was from a champion bag looted from the chest of nightmares in Silverwastes.

Never played the toilet, never will.

Got a third one yesterday from a Vinewrath champ bag, the Carcharias.

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Posted by: Pretty Pixie.8603

Pretty Pixie.8603

5.7k hrs. 1x Forge, 1x drop.

Relentless Inquisition [PAIN] – FA

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Posted by: Morte.5916

Morte.5916

1700, no forge, no drop

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Posted by: MegumiAzusa.2918

MegumiAzusa.2918

If you roll 100 – 20 sided die, what are the odds you will roll a 2000?

If you think the odds are better after the 10,000 roll than the first roll, I have found your problem with this entire thread.

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

Spot on. Odds have no memory. It’s like flipping a coin. You have 50% chance heads, 50% chance tails. If you’ve flipped tails 6 or 7 times already, you still have 50% Chance of each with your next flip.

It’s like the one Asura in Rata Sum who gets asked what the winner of the Snaff Prize next year is going to be.
The conversation is:
-“New and improved golem designs?”
-“You make the same prediction every year.”
-“Perhaps, but the odds of being correct are continuing to improve.”
I always have to facepalm when I’m at the weaponsmithing station, something like this coming from an Asura.

Also
3046h
1 Mystic Toilet Dusk

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Posted by: Yalora Istairiea.6287

Yalora Istairiea.6287

4,600 hrs
15,000 APs
900 days…

Zero Precursors
Zero Ascended Chests
Zero Etched Weapons
/sigh

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Posted by: Novuake.2691

Novuake.2691

4,600 hrs
15,000 APs
900 days…

Zero Precursors
Zero Ascended Chests
Zero Etched Weapons
/sigh

OOOOUUUUCCCCH…

Hell I got my first asc chest at like day 5. HEHE… Didn’t think much of it at the time…

Retriever Iiat – Asura Engineer
Private retriever of runaway NPCs
Mistband[MIST] – PVP Training guild EU

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Posted by: Pandaman.4758

Pandaman.4758

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

I wouldn’t say people don’t grasp the concept of the RNG, it’s just that it’s hard not to grouse about how inherently unfair the RNG is when rewarding time and effort (that is to say it doesn’t).

Fortunately that will be solved by the precursor crafting mastery, so people can complain slightly less about it.

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Posted by: MegumiAzusa.2918

MegumiAzusa.2918

Yes, it is more LIKELY you will get 2000 after 10,000 rolls than a single roll, but the number of rolls has NO bearing on the actual odds of each roll.

This is the basic concept of RNG that most players just do not grasp.

I wouldn’t say people don’t grasp the concept of the RNG, it’s just that it’s hard not to grouse about how inherently unfair the RNG is when rewarding time and effort (that is to say it doesn’t).

People not being able to grasp this concept is more common than you might think. Just look up Monte Carlo fallacy.

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Posted by: Azrael.4960

Azrael.4960

3049.

2 drops. One from boss chest and another from random mob in fractals

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Posted by: Milennin.4825

Milennin.4825

1,864 hours over the past 898 days.

0 from forge, 0 from drops.

Just who the hell do you think I am!?

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Posted by: MithranArkanere.8957

MithranArkanere.8957

I have over 6500 hours over the max possible time and around 200MF.

I have never got anything drop worth more than 20 gold. More than 5g is extremely rare. Most of what I got all the time can only be sold by 50copper-2.50 silver. Rares mostly worth less than 30 silver, exotics mostly around 50-70 silver.

SUGGEST-A-TRON says:
PAY—ONCE—UNLOCKS—ARE—ALWAYS—BETTER.
No exceptions!

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Posted by: Pinkamena Diane Pie.8054

Pinkamena Diane Pie.8054

I feel ashamed..

875 hours
3 drops (2 x lover, 1 x rodgorts flame..all 2 weeks ago within 10 minutes..MF)

This is what I love about RNG. (by love I mean absolutely loath!)

4217 hours : 0 pre.
Most expensive thing I’ve had is a lotus node from a BLC, which noone wants to buy and the price has fallen a lot in the last week as well

The WvW Forum Poster Formerly Known As Omaris Mortuus Est

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Posted by: penelopehannibal.8947

penelopehannibal.8947

I think judging from the very mixed hours/precursor ratio from people, we can all conclude now that precursor entitlement is nothing to do with how many hours we’ve played. I’ve made four legendaries in my xxxx hours of gameplay, and all four precursors I purchased.

I’m still happy with the game.

Blood & Merlot [Wine]

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Posted by: Bathos.6341

Bathos.6341

4011 hours played, 0 precursors.

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Posted by: Scourge.4317

Scourge.4317

4k+ hours 1 Chaos Gun from 4 random rares about 7 months ago. Soon Quip…..soon.

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Posted by: SoulPrime.8029

SoulPrime.8029

4628 hours 2 both were gems -gold- tons of rares

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Posted by: Stangboy.7961

Stangboy.7961

1299 hours, I got Storm from the mystic forge flushing random rares.

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Posted by: Xander.9024

Xander.9024

2.4 k hours, 890 days 1 precursor.

Anecdotal stuff: It was the Howl. I got it off a boss in AC story. I also sold it for 500g.

(edited by Xander.9024)

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Posted by: MashMash.1645

MashMash.1645

Just over 1500 hours and 2 pre’s – both within the last month. Rifle and warhorn.

Pre-Ordered HoT | Recently started to get what I paid for – may spend $$$

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Posted by: Fermi.2409

Fermi.2409

1395h or so. I pulled Zap from the MF two days ago when I was tossing in swords from AC tokens so I could get something to sell. That’s the only one is gotten so far.

HAF 912 | i7-3770k @ 4.5 GHz | MSI GTX 1070 GAMING 8GB | Gigabyte Z77X-D3H
EGVA SuperNOVA B2 750W | 16 GB DDR3 1600 | Acer XG270HU | Win 10×64
MX Brown Quickfire XT | Commander Shaussman [AGNY]- Fort Aspenwood

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Posted by: cranos.5913

cranos.5913

Nearly 4k hours. 5 from the toilet, 2 from chests (1 in arah, 1 from teq)

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Posted by: Faux.1937

Faux.1937

Only Pre to “drop” was at 5,127hrs in a fotm 19 on a solo run in snowblind fotm.

Ive gotten a few from MF with dungeon tokens and a Lucky one in the MF with 4 exotics trying to Spike my friend.. and it worked..

SAB or RIOT

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Posted by: IndigoSundown.5419

IndigoSundown.5419

9,393 hours 20 minutes across all characters

Does math… O_O

For me, ~2700, zero precursors

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Posted by: Sorin.4310

Sorin.4310

Around 2.8k hours. I got 1 precursor drop around 2.5k hours. I got Rage from a champion box. Of all the pres….whomp whomp.

As a note: I’m not sure what the purpose of this thread is. Pres are rare enough that you are going to see some very varying results in this thread.

(edited by Sorin.4310)

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Posted by: Meglobob.8620

Meglobob.8620

4,600 hrs
15,000 APs
900 days…

Zero Precursors
Zero Ascended Chests
Zero Etched Weapons
/sigh

Wow…our even more unlucky than me…at least I have had 4 ascended chests drop (sadly 3 had utterly useless rings in).

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Posted by: Ztepam.9327

Ztepam.9327

5331 hrs and 17 mins – 0 precursors from drop nor forge, I bought one

(edited by Ztepam.9327)

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Posted by: pelto.7345

pelto.7345

i gotta say when you toss stuff into the forge souldbind it first put a diffrent rune in it, it seems to help

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Posted by: EdgarMTanaka.7291

EdgarMTanaka.7291

3800 hours I think it was… And no Prec…

My brother about 300 Hours and 1 Prec.

Member of Alpha Swedish Gaming Community – http://www.alphas.se/
Guild Leader of Alpha Sgc [ASGC]

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Posted by: Gregori.5807

Gregori.5807

2969 hours 55 minutes over the past 900 days.

0 precursors, the best drops I have was the Pyre dye from a BLC and 1 ascended chest, I can’t remember any other drops worth more than 20g. I am happy if I get a drop worth 5 g, which is not that often.

~~On Blackgate since Beta~~
80s: Necro x2, Ranger, Warr, Guardian x2, Ele x2, Mes, Thief

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Posted by: VladeKR.9851

VladeKR.9851

840~ hrs

1 drop from MF
0 drop from Mob
1 drop from Trading Post

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Posted by: Ben K.6238

Ben K.6238

5651 across both accounts, nothing.

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Posted by: dank.3680

dank.3680

5,491 – 0 drops

#MAGSWAG: All class player. XOXO

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

4475 hrs – 1 drop from mob (zap)

2 from MF (both The Legend), from what I can guess based on the number of rares and exotics I have thrown in I have had about what I’d expect.

I have four completed legendaries and 3 precursors waiting to be upgraded. I have never paid more than 200g for a precursor off the tp.

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Posted by: Nick.7259

Nick.7259

Relevance between /age and precursors gotten?

I have 4467 hours and 0 precursors from normal gameplay. To me that’s the only relevant comparison with /age.

Then I have 1 precursor from the final reward chest when Southsun Cove was introduced in the game. That was a one time special event that had an extremely high chance for precursors (compared to any other way of getting one). I don’t ount that as a drop from gameplay.

Then I have 4 precursors from the Forge (putting the drops of rares/exotics I get into the Forge – never buying anything to put there). The number of precursor you get from the Forge is not relevant to /age – it’s more relevant to how many times you try the Forge… For me it has been 1,0 % precursors from Exotic attempts and 0,16 % precursors from Rare attempts.

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Posted by: Paulus magintie.7432

Paulus magintie.7432

375 hours 15 mins

0 Pre

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Posted by: Ouroboros.5076

Ouroboros.5076

2812 hours

0 drop
3 MF (2* dusk, 1* dawn – thousands of gold spent)

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Posted by: Valento.9852

Valento.9852

Reaching 5k, my only legit drop was a Howl in Orr, dropped from a Risen Grub. I’ve bought the pres I wanted from TP (The Legend and Storm).

Attempts at ele specs:
Shaman
Conjurer

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Posted by: Rednik.3809

Rednik.3809

5475.
no precursor drops, no MF precursors as well.

Kiijna, Xast, Satis Ironwail, Sekhaina, Shira Forgesparkle, Sfeno, Nasibi, Tegeira, Rhonwe…
25 charracters

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Posted by: Lunar Sunset.8742

Lunar Sunset.8742

3239 hours….
1 drop and 5 or 6 from MF

Sunset
50/50 GWAMM x3
I quit how I want

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Posted by: TheMagickDoll.7594

TheMagickDoll.7594

4,200 hours
nothing, not even from Karka event.

played since beta

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Posted by: Lynne.8416

Lynne.8416

Played roughly 2800 hrs since launch….
0 precursors to show for it.
I only play with the mystic forge when it’s a daily achievement. So the chances of getting one there are slim and none.

I’m disappointed that I haven’t received one yet, but not too upset about it since it’s all really based on RNG (or grinding out the gold in dungeons to buy off TP)

I fear the precursor collections that are coming up in HoT will be extremely difficult…ie 1000 hours of grinding out this, that and the other of very difficult, coordinated combat for a single precursor. Then you still need to spend another 1000 hours and 1000 gold for mats and gated content to craft the darn thing into a legendary.

Thankfully I’m rather content with the skins my characters are currently running around with, so not sure if I’ll even be motivated enough to try for the collections.

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Posted by: sscripko.5387

sscripko.5387

2,100 hours played, 2 precursors dropped (both Rage). One from guild missions, one from some BG kitten in WvW.

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Posted by: Rozbuska.5263

Rozbuska.5263

5732 hours 3 drops here:-)

Tekkit Mojo – Engineer
Tekkit’s Workshop

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Posted by: Allisa Wonderland.8192

Allisa Wonderland.8192

6300 hours.
1 “Rage” drop from a mob centaur at the end of the Harathi chain… and no, not from a boss chest… a mob!

That was about a year and a half ago now.

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Posted by: Sean.8274

Sean.8274

Around 4300 hours played.

1 Precursor (The Hunter, dropped from WvW Veteran Guard at inner Hills)

Lucy Ursa~80 Guardian | Worf Rozhenko~80 Warrior | Vera Valentine~80 Mesmer | Cupcake~80 Engi
King Arcturus X~80 Ranger | Suki Serra~80 Thief | Count Charon~80 Necro | Regulus Leo~80 Ele
HoD since launch

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Posted by: Condutas.3580

Condutas.3580

1.424 hours.

1 percursor dropped

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Posted by: Immortal.3647

Immortal.3647

a bit over 2k hours, 1pre