After going through 2 RNG bullkitten trying to get a specific skin and failing on both I’m starting to think whatever seed they are using in thier RNG algorithm is not producing very random results. Why do I think this you might ask? It become I’m getting the exact same items over and over again. Every time I do fractals my end chest 90% of the time if I get a ring, I get the barbed signet, not any of the other 20 rings. I also have a guildy who has gotten 6 fractal swords without getting any other fractal weapon. Just using the odds of 1/22 chance to get the sword if you RNG hits a fractal weapons, those odds are 1 in 100 million, and that is ignore the “5-15%” chance to get a fractal weapon drop. I have also witnessed to opening world boss chests and getting two of the exact same rare. With all the possibility of type and state and skin, I find such an occurrence extremely improbable and it has actually happen multiple times.
Has anyone else felt their drops are not feel very random.
The issue with RNG is that… well… Random is in the name…. You could theoretically get a item on a 1 in 100 chance 700 times in a row…. Or never in your lifetime…. That’s the issue with RNG…
Yes, I’ve also noticed inconsistencies in drops. Often I get good drops back to back when I haven’t even had one single good drop for a significant amount of time. Each time I think, what are the chances to get the same t6 items 3 drops in a row, and then get junk for another 100 drops, rinse and repeat. It’s not always like this, but there’s definitely a strong tendency for this scenario, at least for me. I’m too lazy to actually do the math though to calculate what the chances would actually be. But I know they are very, very slim, and yet it happens quite regularly.
Well, you can throw a dice ten times and get a 6 all the time… that’s still random ^^ That being said, it is true that some items love to be in my hands… like the fiber splice from CoE, or Adelbern’s ring from fractals… Fractal skins are still a mistery, never seen one :p
I also had a few of those drops that are exactly the same, from world bosses, fractal chests or even jp chests… so it may not be that rare.
After going through 2 RNG bullkitten trying to get a specific skin and failing on both I’m starting to think whatever seed they are using in thier RNG algorithm is not producing very random results. Why do I think this you might ask? It become I’m getting the exact same items over and over again. Every time I do fractals my end chest 90% of the time if I get a ring, I get the barbed signet, not any of the other 20 rings. I also have a guildy who has gotten 6 fractal swords without getting any other fractal weapon. Just using the odds of 1/22 chance to get the sword if you RNG hits a fractal weapons, those odds are 1 in 100 million, and that is ignore the “5-15%” chance to get a fractal weapon drop. I have also witnessed to opening world boss chests and getting two of the exact same rare. With all the possibility of type and state and skin, I find such an occurrence extremely improbable and it has actually happen multiple times.
Has anyone else felt their drops are not feel very random.
After the fact happened it makes no sense to calculate the so called odds. The odds that your friend got 6 fractal swords is actually 100%, since you just told me so.
Or check youtube for Derren Brown tossing heads 10 consecutive times.
Or more personal … the chance that you are Shadowmoon.7986 and I’m marnick.4305, is one in 100,000,000 or about the chance of one person getting 6 fractal swords. And yet it happened.
If I can’t play Guild Wars 2 at work, I won’t work in Guild Wars 2 either.
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
Yep been complaining about it for about 8 months now. There’s this lopsided loot thing going on some people get loot constantly while others get nothing at all doing the same exact events and this isn’t just anecdotal this is all the time within the same circle of friends doing the same events weekly and monthly even with new content coming out.
It’s more noticeably a problem on this title however since they also have DR. When you have a code that causes this problem to occur on TOP of a code in the system that artificially cuts off your loot capabilities before you even have a chance to fully get started with taking out temporary mobs in events, then there’s a bigger problem.
There’s also the issues that come about when a double RNG system is in place, like with loot bags. It takes RNG to even get them to drop, they are affected by DR just like all other loot, and then there’s a secondary external chance for the type of drops that will come out of said bags. It’s why AAA game developers stopped using it in general a long time ago because they learned that these things don’t make for a fun game experience. People need to be able to reach their goals in games.
The whole RNG thing is really interesting to me. It does seem like some of my characters are luckier than others, even with no magic find at all. But this is just appearance. I can’t really quantify it. It’s fun to think about, anyway.
It could just be some of my characters don’t tag as many mobs, for example, in events, so I have less rolls on those charts.
The issue with discussing randomness in games is selective bias. Yes, the chances of getting a fractal sword 6 times (assuming you only do 6 fractals) is 8.82×10^-7% (yes, percent) (I actually don’t believe this happened until I see evidence). However, the chances of one person, out of everyone who plays, getting at least 6 fractal swords in their play time is significantly higher.
People will come to the forum to complain about the RNG when they are unlucky. So you will see many threads related to ‘bad luck’. However, you will not get everyone with good luck coming to the forums.
The only people who can truly see the data is A-net themselves. Until they confirm there’s nothing wrong with it (by looking at the data) you will get people coming here complaining that it’s bugged. I’ve seen it happen in other games.
And yes, a computer is incapable of making truly random rolls. However, it’s definitely random enough (and arguably there’s no such thing as truly random in the real world, it only exists in mathematics).
yep. i started noticing quirks for a while, forming my own theories rather than reading an official statement.
obvious in cursed shore or any “Farm” event on a populated server, being in a 5 man party = way more loot. i saw for a while if my dps or teams dps wasnt high enough, you didnt get loot. that goes to say for vets/champs AND regular mobs, but regular are easier to tag. however, if you played on JQ during its prime, youd know you had to be extremely fast or no drops.
same people get drops yea its wrong. the people who have gotten 3precursors imo. the people who constantly get abbbys/celestial
the people who get “2 fused tickets” from ~20 chests, my friend opens 180 for 1 ticket. id say its possible, but no , the same people get lucky way too much. what, does everyone whos that lu cky play lotterry too cuz its same odds
It took months of player reports to get them to look at the kill credit bug. It took pages of player complaints on the forums to get them to look into the recently broken salvaging bug.
One day they’ll get around to this…
You’ll notice that after initially dismissing the kill credit bug as “an X-Files conspiracy theory” they were embarrassed but honest and admitted that it was real and they missed it. After this they immediately investigated the salvaging bug upon being presented not just with complaints but clear evidence that something strange has been happening. Again they admitted in public that there was a bug and they fixed it ASAP.
If there really is a bug then post EVIDENCE that this is happening, and they will look into it. Twice now they admitted their mistakes instead of sweeping things under the rug and pretending nothing is wrong. It hurts their reputation and their business much more to pretend that nothing is wrong than to admit they messed up.
It took months of player reports to get them to look at the kill credit bug. It took pages of player complaints on the forums to get them to look into the recently broken salvaging bug.
One day they’ll get around to this…
Thousands of posts are far less convincing than reproducible empirical evidence. Do you really think all those posts had anything to do with the fix? I put my bets on the single post containing a test sample showing that salvages no longer went 0-3.
If I can’t play Guild Wars 2 at work, I won’t work in Guild Wars 2 either.
Delayed content is eventually good. Rushed content is eternally bad. ~ Shigeru Miyamoto
I SWEAR it feels like some people have better chances for certain things than others.. like I was forging exotic shortbows the other day to make a lover and I had 10 different kinds of shortbows in my inventory i was mixing up in the forge… I got the same NAMED shortbow 4/5 forges… (i did about 50 forges and ended up with 7 of them in total)
That’s because RNG in this game stands for Rotten Number Game. And you have a lower chance than winning the lottery while being struck by lightning to win it big.
And it is here to eat your soul.
Anarai Aeonblade [GASM] – Guardian – DB
RIP my fair Engi and Ranger, you will be missed.
In order for a Wi-Flag situation to be relevant to those playing GW2 the RNG seed would have to be based upon a permanent ID of some kind. And this we will never know since it’s a developer that decided what the seed would be for the RNG.
A simple way to eliminate that possibility would be to create a new seed each time a player logs on and to check that it isn’t a previously used seed from the last login.
I also get a lot of duplicate rewards but typically the duplicates aren’t bad so I don’t complain. It always makes me go hmmm since that would seem statistically improbable (not impossible).
EDIT: I always thought RNG also stood for Random Number Goddess. Hence the favoritism and monthly bouts of moodiness. :P /joking
It took months of player reports to get them to look at the kill credit bug. It took pages of player complaints on the forums to get them to look into the recently broken salvaging bug.
One day they’ll get around to this…
Thousands of posts are far less convincing than reproducible empirical evidence. Do you really think all those posts had anything to do with the fix? I put my bets on the single post containing a test sample showing that salvages no longer went 0-3.
Someone actually mentioned that a Wi Flag event might be occurring with their algorithm they use for determining drops which would explain why some people consistantly have the best drops in the game and others have the worst doing the same events/dungeons weekly and monthly often in the same groups. Remember the reports from doing the 1 day event where multiple players had multiple characters located in SS ready for when the SS event was over so they could switch to their toons be moved to the SS channel their group was in and get multiple precursor drops from the same boss chest?
So far I believe this is most likely the case.
It fits what I’ve been seeing and we’d see not only bad drops from this as well as quick cutoffs when we’re placed in DR when an event begins despite of magic find numbers.
Random is random. But as humans we recognize streaks. We attribute it to good luck or bad luck. We also cling onto the fallacy that previous results will affect future ones. “I’m due, just one more time.” We adopt superstitious rituals in an attempt to control chance.
I for instance will salvage my rares at a very slow pace because I think it avoids streaks where I don’t get an ecto. Any basis in reality? If I bother to document my results and analyze them probably not really. But if I salvage quickly and not get an ecto, it simply reinforces this belief. Especially if it’s a streak of no ectos. I’ve selectively ignore the times when salvaging quickly yielded an ecto or even a streak of ectos and let the negative outcome influence my future behavior.
It took months of player reports to get them to look at the kill credit bug. It took pages of player complaints on the forums to get them to look into the recently broken salvaging bug.
One day they’ll get around to this…
Thousands of posts are far less convincing than reproducible empirical evidence. Do you really think all those posts had anything to do with the fix? I put my bets on the single post containing a test sample showing that salvages no longer went 0-3.
Someone actually mentioned that a Wi Flag event might be occurring with their algorithm they use for determining drops which would explain why some people consistantly have the best drops in the game and others have the worst doing the same events/dungeons weekly and monthly often in the same groups. Remember the reports from doing the 1 day event where multiple players had multiple characters located in SS ready for when the SS event was over so they could switch to their toons be moved to the SS channel their group was in and get multiple precursor drops from the same boss chest?
So far I believe this is most likely the case.
It fits what I’ve been seeing and we’d see not only bad drops from this as well as quick cutoffs when we’re placed in DR when an event begins despite of magic find numbers.
This is a very good explanation. After reading the article I’m personally convinced there is something wrong with whatever loot distribution algorithm they have in the game. Some of us are seeded for failure. Others get 3 precursors. It actually explains a lot, thanks for the link friend
Anarai Aeonblade [GASM] – Guardian – DB
RIP my fair Engi and Ranger, you will be missed.
The issue with discussing randomness in games is selective bias. Yes, the chances of getting a fractal sword 6 times (assuming you only do 6 fractals) is 8.82×10^-7% (yes, percent) (I actually don’t believe this happened until I see evidence). However, the chances of one person, out of everyone who plays, getting at least 6 fractal swords in their play time is significantly higher.
Odds of getting the same item 6 times in a role on a 1/22 drop rate(there are a possible 22 fractal weapons) is 1/22 ^ 6 ie 1 in 113379904 chance of happening. When such events happen I start getting skeptical.
The issue with discussing randomness in games is selective bias. Yes, the chances of getting a fractal sword 6 times (assuming you only do 6 fractals) is 8.82×10^-7% (yes, percent) (I actually don’t believe this happened until I see evidence). However, the chances of one person, out of everyone who plays, getting at least 6 fractal swords in their play time is significantly higher.
Odds of getting the same item 6 times in a role on a 1/22 drop rate(there are a possible 22 fractal weapons) is 1/22 ^ 6 ie 1 in 113379904 chance of happening. When such events happen I start getting skeptical.
when i play Yahtzee! I shoot for as many of the same number as I can get every single roll. Most games I play, however, I don’t even get four of a kind, then when I’ve finally given up and crossed off my Yahtzee I roll five 5s!!!
Surely the dice are not random!
The issue with discussing randomness in games is selective bias. Yes, the chances of getting a fractal sword 6 times (assuming you only do 6 fractals) is 8.82×10^-7% (yes, percent) (I actually don’t believe this happened until I see evidence). However, the chances of one person, out of everyone who plays, getting at least 6 fractal swords in their play time is significantly higher.
Odds of getting the same item 6 times in a role on a 1/22 drop rate(there are a possible 22 fractal weapons) is 1/22 ^ 6 ie 1 in 113379904 chance of happening. When such events happen I start getting skeptical.
The odds of getting a fractal weapon are 1 in 22, both the first and sixth time, and every roll in between.
when i play Yahtzee! I shoot for as many of the same number as I can get every single roll. Most games I play, however, I don’t even get four of a kind, then when I’ve finally given up and crossed off my Yahtzee I roll five 5s!!!
Surely the dice are not random!
when i play Yahtzee! I shoot for as many of the same number as I can get every single roll. Most games I play, however, I don’t even get four of a kind, then when I’ve finally given up and crossed off my Yahtzee I roll five 5s!!!
Surely the dice are not random!
Back in the day, when I played Dungeons and Dragons while sitting around a table with a bunch of friends, the really serious players often had several sets of dice for different purposes. There was the “high roll” dice for when you wanted to roll 20s, and the “low roll” dice for rolling under your Intelligence score, etc.
Whether they actually worked this way is debatable, but there were players who seemed to be very good at getting specific results when it really mattered.
