Guild Wars 2

Was just curious on the estimated drop chance on the Jetpack skin in the new temporary instance. Last night there were ten or fifteen on the Trading Post and as of posting this there are seven with the lowest buyout price being 144 gold. I ran the new instance four times yesterday and not a single person in any of my parties managed to snag the new skin.

I get that the chances for it to be in the chest must be pretty low, but surely they’re not that low are they? This is the first time I’ve actually cared about a skin from one of these events and it’s basically skyrocketed well out of my reach.

Must be pretty low. Did 10 runs now and nobdy got one.

Also I hate this stupid speculation. Those backpacks cost 50 gold yesterday. I had 20, grinded 35 more now looking back into the trade post… 100 gold, looking back 5 minutes later 150 gold. bleh I wish that skin was also in the Black Lion company for 600 gems.

The patch/dungeon has been out for a day… Patience is a virtue. While this is basic economics (and I don’t mean to patronise you) as more drop and find their way onto the TP the price will come down, just give it some time.

Yeah, it understandably got pretty volatile after people started logging in after school/work and people found out about the new shinies. Now at this point it’s really whether enough people start running the new instance enough or not and if part of the reason is the event only lasts 12 days.

A cash shop option would be nice for this stuff after one time events. All that’s really accomplished is the economy is thrown out of wack each time.

Scrotbag.9715:

The patch/dungeon has been out for a day… Patience is a virtue. While this is basic economics (and I don’t mean to patronise you) as more drop and find their way onto the TP the price will come down, just give it some time.

I was thinking this would be what would happen, but using the SGS as an example, it skyrocketed after people realized the event was ending soon and there would be a new round of skins next time so it was going away.

Still, people are undercutting each other by 25g so I imagine it’ll reach a low pretty soon.

Scrotbag.9715:

The patch/dungeon has been out for a day… Patience is a virtue. While this is basic economics (and I don’t mean to patronise you) as more drop and find their way onto the TP the price will come down, just give it some time.

Except that we don’t have access to the dungeon for very long, which means less time and chances for it to drop, so I doubt the price is going to drop much, if it does at all. I really wish they would stop putting such rare stuff into the temporary content. The drop rate really needs to be upped, on the jetpack and the mini.

Talloc.6835:

Yeah, it understandably got pretty volatile after people started logging in after school/work and people found out about the new shinies. Now at this point it’s really whether enough people start running the new instance enough or not and if part of the reason is the event only lasts 12 days.

A cash shop option would be nice for this stuff after one time events. All that’s really accomplished is the economy is thrown out of wack each time.

I really wish they were in the cash shop. I would gladly buy a couple, especially if I don’t/didn’t have any drop during my runs. Its really disappointing that they do this kind of kitten (put really rare drops into temporary content, especially when its a really short time frame we get).

skullmount.1758:

Scrotbag.9715:

The patch/dungeon has been out for a day… Patience is a virtue. While this is basic economics (and I don’t mean to patronise you) as more drop and find their way onto the TP the price will come down, just give it some time.

Except that we don’t have access to the dungeon for very long, which means less time and chances for it to drop, so I doubt the price is going to drop much, if it does at all. I really wish they would stop putting such rare stuff into the temporary content. The drop rate really needs to be upped, on the jetpack and the mini.

I think the real thing is how many people are actually willing to shell out the 100g for the pack. That’s a serious chunk of change that not a lot of people can have. There’s a pretty tiny amount of buy orders right now because it’s mostly in the 50g+ range. Logic says it has to drop at some point because there’s not that many people with that much cash floating around to spend on skins.

Talloc.6835:

skullmount.1758:

Scrotbag.9715:

The patch/dungeon has been out for a day… Patience is a virtue. While this is basic economics (and I don’t mean to patronise you) as more drop and find their way onto the TP the price will come down, just give it some time.

Except that we don’t have access to the dungeon for very long, which means less time and chances for it to drop, so I doubt the price is going to drop much, if it does at all. I really wish they would stop putting such rare stuff into the temporary content. The drop rate really needs to be upped, on the jetpack and the mini.

I think the real thing is how many people are actually willing to shell out the 100g for the pack. That’s a serious chunk of change that not a lot of people can have. There’s a pretty tiny amount of buy orders right now because it’s mostly in the 50g+ range. Logic says it has to drop at some point because there’s not that many people with that much cash floating around to spend on skins.

But along those lines, are you going to just sell it for the highest buy order or would you look at what people have it listed at and sell it for that and hope (I guess) that it sells? I just don’t see people trying to sell it for lower (by a large) amounts that what the lowest for sale is.

skullmount.1758:

Talloc.6835:

skullmount.1758:

Scrotbag.9715:

The patch/dungeon has been out for a day… Patience is a virtue. While this is basic economics (and I don’t mean to patronise you) as more drop and find their way onto the TP the price will come down, just give it some time.

Except that we don’t have access to the dungeon for very long, which means less time and chances for it to drop, so I doubt the price is going to drop much, if it does at all. I really wish they would stop putting such rare stuff into the temporary content. The drop rate really needs to be upped, on the jetpack and the mini.

I think the real thing is how many people are actually willing to shell out the 100g for the pack. That’s a serious chunk of change that not a lot of people can have. There’s a pretty tiny amount of buy orders right now because it’s mostly in the 50g+ range. Logic says it has to drop at some point because there’s not that many people with that much cash floating around to spend on skins.

But along those lines, are you going to just sell it for the highest buy order or would you look at what people have it listed at and sell it for that and hope (I guess) that it sells? I just don’t see people trying to sell it for lower (by a large) amounts that what the lowest for sale is.

Hard to say. MMOs usually have some pretty impatient people who like to sell something the second they get it though, so I think it’s a safe bet that they’re going to start causing the price to drop.

I really think the smart thing to do would be hold onto a few. Unless Anet puts the skin in the Gem store the price will likely spike after the dungeon is gone.
If I got one I would hold onto it. I still have 2 princess wand skins.
That wasn’t the best example but I held onto them because I had plans of using them with an alt I didn’t get around to creating.