English is not my native language, sorry :<
Fine salvage kit 40%?
Flipping a coin gives you a 50 percent chance of getting heads but just because you flip it 100 times doesnt mean you’re going to land on heads 50 times, of those coin flips you could only land on heads 20 times out of 100 . Same thing would apply to salvaging items
Flipping a coin gives you a 50 percent chance of getting heads but just because you flip it 100 times doesnt mean you’re going to land on heads 50 times, of those coin flips you could only land on heads 20 times out of 100 . Same thing would apply to salvaging items
It is possible, yes. But i am not so lucky. 10% and 40% – such a big difference… Can you test it?
English is not my native language, sorry :<
Flipping a coin gives you a 50 percent chance of getting heads but just because you flip it 100 times doesnt mean you’re going to land on heads 50 times, of those coin flips you could only land on heads 20 times out of 100 . Same thing would apply to salvaging items
It is possible, yes. But i am not so lucky. 10% and 40% – such a big difference… Can you test it?
Wouldn’t do any good, people will get different results. That 40% is not a statistic, it is the chance that you have to get the upgrade on each use. Just because it has a 40% chance to get an upgrade, it doesn’t mean that 40% of the time you will get an upgrade. There is a difference between a statistic and a chance.
me personally? no the only reason i buy fine at this point is to toss into the mystic forge with master and journeyman to make a mystic
I want to mention i started to count after some time using these kits. I used may be 1000 of them over time (did not count) and just noticed small numbers of recovered upgrades.
Wouldn’t do any good, people will get different results. That 40% is not a statistic, it is the chance that you have to get the upgrade on each use. Just because it has a 40% chance to get an upgrade, it doesn’t mean that 40% of the time you will get an upgrade. There is a difference between a statistic and a chance.
100 tries will be enough. I just can’t salvage 1000 items in short period of time for better accuracy. I need some help.
English is not my native language, sorry :<
I want to mention i started to count after some time using these kits. I used may be 1000 of them over time (did not count) and just noticed small numbers of recovered upgrades.
Wouldn’t do any good, people will get different results. That 40% is not a statistic, it is the chance that you have to get the upgrade on each use. Just because it has a 40% chance to get an upgrade, it doesn’t mean that 40% of the time you will get an upgrade. There is a difference between a statistic and a chance.
100 tries will be enough. I just can’t salvage 1000 items in short period of time for better accuracy. I need some help.
again, wouldn’t do any good. There will be different results every time. You can go through a 100 of them and not get any upgrades, you can go through a 1000 of them and get 1 upgrade, because that means you rolled on that 60% chance of not getting anything everytime.
I want to mention i started to count after some time using these kits. I used may be 1000 of them over time (did not count) and just noticed small numbers of recovered upgrades.
Wouldn’t do any good, people will get different results. That 40% is not a statistic, it is the chance that you have to get the upgrade on each use. Just because it has a 40% chance to get an upgrade, it doesn’t mean that 40% of the time you will get an upgrade. There is a difference between a statistic and a chance.
100 tries will be enough. I just can’t salvage 1000 items in short period of time for better accuracy. I need some help.
again, wouldn’t do any good. There will be different results every time. You can go through a 100 of them and not get any upgrades, you can go through a 1000 of them and get 1 upgrade, because that means you rolled on that 60% chance of not getting anything everytime.
No. More tries – better accuracy. It is possible to get 1 from 1000, but almost never happens.
English is not my native language, sorry :<
Guys, 100 tries is actually a decent sample. Getting only 15% shows that he is either extremely unlucky or the 40% chance isn’t what it seems to mean.
Guys, 100 tries is actually a decent sample. Getting only 15% shows that he is either extremely unlucky or the 40% chance isn’t what it seems to mean.
The first seems more accurate.
I do hope some day people will learn that as long a there is a chance for something to happen, no matter how big is the sample that chance will not go away.
Flip a coin 1 million times, get head 1 million times.
I wonder what the odds of that would actually be
Flip a coin 1 million times, get head 1 million times.
0.5^1million = very unlikely. I’m not gonna put my argument of “it can happen” into that miniscule chance. It’s more practical to think the opposite.
(edited by Yenn.9185)
Flip a coin 1 million times, get head 1 million times.
0.5^1million = very unlikely. I’m not gonna put my argument of “it can happen” into that miniscule chance. It’s more practical to think the opposite.
I’m fine with that, as long as you don’t end up calling shenanigans on the stated chance if it happens (like several in this thread seem to imply).
I use these to get essences. You can get them with karma.
Flip a coin 1 million times, get head 1 million times.
0.5^1million = very unlikely. I’m not gonna put my argument of “it can happen” into that miniscule chance. It’s more practical to think the opposite.
I’m fine with that, as long as you don’t end up calling shenanigans on the stated chance if it happens (like several in this thread seem to imply).
I’m not dismissing the chance but I’m dismissing the point of it all. There is no reason to think, in practical terms, that it can still happen if the chance borders improbability. How high or low the chance, or big the sample must be for you to think something is going on?
I once flipped a coin and it gave me head 10 times in a row. Chance is something very arbitrary. Same goes for people dumping rares/exotics in forge to get a pre.