Guild Wars 2

Sam Gem.1246:

Basically, I’ll squander all my possessions to get that stupid pre. If I don’t get the amount that is in line with the stat, I’ll quit for sure. Which means about 2 to 3 in 500 attempts…

Less posting, more flushing!

My personal worst experience was 1000g+ in crafted rares until one popped again.

Anet pRNG is suspect at best. I base this on the fact that I keep getting the exact same items over and over again. There are around 10 named exo I get, never any others, and I constantly get them. Then there are multiple instances where WvW rank up chests give me the exact same 2 green items (level, prefix and suffix). Once I thought it was a fluke, but when it keeps happening. Same with fractal weapons, I keep getting bows, others keep getting daggers.
Then there is fact that Anet hides ALL their drop rates. Why is this important, because it keep people doubts if they suspect that pRNG is rigged. Also to keep people playing and wasting their time and spending gems on RNG boxes. I wonder how many rng key would sell if people knew the drop rates right in front of them.

Random != evenly distributed
Random == random

In order to see results like the statistical view implies, you have to do A LOT MORE tries. A lot more.
Nothing wrong with your figures. And seriously nothing to get mad about.

Right, so you used the mystic toilet RNG system while Anet announced an upcoming new system that will make sure you don’t have to rely on the old system, yet willingly you still tried to use the mystic toilet and failed the lottery.

You had the knowledge and you failed to use it, don’t blaim Anet for your mistakes

Sam Gem.1246:

I’m a logic person. After buying 3 precursors, I have done the math, using statistics and the experience of other people to persuade myself to use the mystic forge instead of buying the precursors. Basically, the odds of getting a pre is .2 % from rares. Using a cumulative binomial calculator, the odds of getting 1 or more pre from 350 attempts is 50%….
Well, after 1100 attempts, I’ve convinced myself to quit. I know.. 100 trolls will say good ridden. Whatever. I’ll never buy an Anet game or all other affiliates. You have wasted my time enough already…

listen i understand and know exactly how you feel , this game and most people state is not about loot , generally this game is about the gameplay if you are looking for loot or at least a lot of it and pre , tbh this game wont provide you with it the loot is always gona be minimal , the devs have even stated this game is not about loot its about to play the game , tbh i left ages ago whats an mmo without loot simple answer there gw2 , and yes i agree i will never buy or play another game made by them neither completely agree

Izaya.2906:

Sam Gem.1246:

Basically, I’ll squander all my possessions to get that stupid pre. If I don’t get the amount that is in line with the stat, I’ll quit for sure. Which means about 2 to 3 in 500 attempts…

Less posting, more flushing! :D

My personal worst experience was 1000g+ in crafted rares until one popped again.

I’m at 1500g worth of rares and exos down the potty since the game launched and still no precursor. :) Not that it makes a difference since for the legendaries that I’ve actually wanted I’ve bought the pre from TP.

Taku.6352:

Izaya.2906:

Sam Gem.1246:

Basically, I’ll squander all my possessions to get that stupid pre. If I don’t get the amount that is in line with the stat, I’ll quit for sure. Which means about 2 to 3 in 500 attempts…

Less posting, more flushing!

My personal worst experience was 1000g+ in crafted rares until one popped again.

I’m at 1500g worth of rares and exos down the potty since the game launched and still no precursor. Not that it makes a difference since for the legendaries that I’ve actually wanted I’ve bought the pre from TP.

It obviously makes a difference for OP basing rates on a tiny sample off some reddit thread :/

Shadowmoon.7986:

Anet pRNG is suspect at best. I base this on the fact that I keep getting the exact same items over and over again. There are around 10 named exo I get, never any others, and I constantly get them. Then there are multiple instances where WvW rank up chests give me the exact same 2 green items (level, prefix and suffix). Once I thought it was a fluke, but when it keeps happening. Same with fractal weapons, I keep getting bows, others keep getting daggers.
Then there is fact that Anet hides ALL their drop rates. Why is this important, because it keep people doubts if they suspect that pRNG is rigged. Also to keep people playing and wasting their time and spending gems on RNG boxes. I wonder how many rng key would sell if people knew the drop rates right in front of them.

What he means with pRNG is pseudo RNG. I posted about this earlier in this topic.

When people say “RNG is RNG” they’re wrong. True RNG and pseudo RNG may look the same, but when push comes to shove they’re really not.

Read this. I’ll take 2 quotes to get yor attention:

“These characteristics make TRNGs suitable for roughly the set of applications that PRNGs are unsuitable for, such as data encryption, games and gambling. "

“Because PRNGs generate random numbers by using mathematical formulae or precalculated lists, using one corresponds to someone rolling a die many times and writing down the results. Whenever you ask for a die roll, you get the next on the list. Effectively, the numbers appear random, but they are really predetermined.”

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

Sadly, that’s the RNG for you. Or predetermined. Or just bad luck. That said, yes. Avoid using the Mystic Forge. They call it a toilet for a reason.

Lotta numbers in this thread… but I think it boils down to ’DON’T LEAVE! We love you!’

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

The difference is when you find out at which moment the predetermined set of outcomes resets – let’s assume at the usual reset time – and around which time after that reset your lucky RNG number should pop up in the predetermined sequence. Some people who forged an incredible amount of precursors will always do so at a certain time of the day. They do that for a reason.

That does assume that the reset occurs based on time of day or passage of a specific amount of time.

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

Without delving too far into the philosophy of random variables, the crux of predetermination is whether or not an outcome is knowable before the observation. If you shuffle a deck of cards and place it face down on the table, the order is determined – they have a physical order on the table – but barring marked cards or improper shuffling the identity of each card is unknown until it is observed (at which point it’s merely data).

So predetermination isn’t so much about whether or not there’s an immutable order, but whether or not that order is knowable without observation.

Buttercup.5871:

Some people who forged an incredible amount of precursors will always do so at a certain time of the day. They do that for a reason.

Same reason some athletes won’t change their underwear while on a winning streak.

The defects of widely used PRNG algorithms are massively overblown; mentioning them at all is usually just to give a sense of legitimacy to what are fundamentally superstitions.

Buttercup.5871:

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

The difference is when you find out at which moment the predetermined set of outcomes resets – let’s assume at the usual reset time – and around which time after that reset your lucky RNG number should pop up in the predetermined sequence. Some people who forged an incredible amount of precursors will always do so at a certain time of the day. They do that for a reason.

pretty sure when they use time in any way for rng, it would be milliseconds and smaller and not hours

Ensign.2189:

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

Without delving too far into the philosophy of random variables, the crux of predetermination is whether or not an outcome is knowable before the observation. If you shuffle a deck of cards and place it face down on the table, the order is determined – they have a physical order on the table – but barring marked cards or improper shuffling the identity of each card is unknown until it is observed (at which point it’s merely data).

So predetermination isn’t so much about whether or not there’s an immutable order, but whether or not that order is knowable without observation.

So if I’m putting that deck of cards to you every day at predetermined timed intervals and in the same order, you think a year later it’s still a mystery when the queen of spades is going to surface?

Buttercup.5871:

Ensign.2189:

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

Without delving too far into the philosophy of random variables, the crux of predetermination is whether or not an outcome is knowable before the observation. If you shuffle a deck of cards and place it face down on the table, the order is determined – they have a physical order on the table – but barring marked cards or improper shuffling the identity of each card is unknown until it is observed (at which point it’s merely data).

So predetermination isn’t so much about whether or not there’s an immutable order, but whether or not that order is knowable without observation.

So if I’m putting that deck of cards to you every day at predetermined timed intervals and in the same order, you think a year later it’s still a mystery when the queen of spades is going to surface?

Are your perceptions sufficiently fast to react to the passage of milliseconds? If that predetemined timed interval is .001 seconds? A year later the act of pressing the buttons for operating the forge will be off. Your internet connection response varies slightly, your own nervous system response for pressing the keys varies slightly, your keyboard mechanical response varies slightly, your computer response time to keyboard input varies slightly. Your ability to factor all of those variances in order to activate a trade at the exact same millisecond each time is nonexistent.

BammBamm.6719:

Buttercup.5871:

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

The difference is when you find out at which moment the predetermined set of outcomes resets – let’s assume at the usual reset time – and around which time after that reset your lucky RNG number should pop up in the predetermined sequence. Some people who forged an incredible amount of precursors will always do so at a certain time of the day. They do that for a reason.

pretty sure when they use time in any way for rng, it would be milliseconds and smaller and not hours

milliseconds is still subject to internal rythyms and subconsicous timing.

Ashen.2907:

Buttercup.5871:

Ensign.2189:

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

Without delving too far into the philosophy of random variables, the crux of predetermination is whether or not an outcome is knowable before the observation. If you shuffle a deck of cards and place it face down on the table, the order is determined – they have a physical order on the table – but barring marked cards or improper shuffling the identity of each card is unknown until it is observed (at which point it’s merely data).

So predetermination isn’t so much about whether or not there’s an immutable order, but whether or not that order is knowable without observation.

So if I’m putting that deck of cards to you every day at predetermined timed intervals and in the same order, you think a year later it’s still a mystery when the queen of spades is going to surface?

Are your perceptions sufficiently fast to react to the passage of milliseconds? If that predetemined timed interval is .001 seconds? A year later the act of pressing the buttons for operating the forge will be off. Your internet connection response varies slightly, your own nervous system response for pressing the keys varies slightly, your keyboard mechanical response varies slightly, your computer response time to keyboard input varies slightly. Your ability to factor all of those variances in order to activate a trade at the exact same millisecond each time is nonexistent.

people do have internal rythyms, it doesnt need to be exactly the same to eliminate possibilities, or generate patterns.

people arent clocks that consistently will go out of wack, they tend to reset their off timings eventually.

now, is this happening? who knows. The truth it doesnt matter if its really random or not, 1/1000 chances , that take people 2 months-12 months worth to try 1000 times, is a recipe for dissatisfaction.

Random working according to known rules is probably not going to give a lot of users a satisfactory experience.

All these angry people about a random thing. An old quote I heard a long time ago applies here. “Never gamble with something you are not willing to lose”

I notice a lot of these threads are from people saying “I dumped 10000000 greatswords into the forge and got nothing qq” They are not happy about losing all the gold the invested in crafting weapons and forging them.

I am never mad when I dont get a precursor because I do it casually and dont miss the small investment over time. I just use rare weapon drops and forge them all. I have pulled 3/4 precursors I have had from the forge but I dont care how many I have put in. Because it is gambling. Either I get what I wanted or not, simple aas that and I move on.

eithinan.9841:

All these angry people about a random thing. An old quote I heard a long time ago applies here. “Never gamble with something you are not willing to lose”

I notice a lot of these threads are from people saying “I dumped 10000000 greatswords into the forge and got nothing qq” They are not happy about losing all the gold the invested in crafting weapons and forging them.

I am never mad when I dont get a precursor because I do it casually and dont miss the small investment over time. I just use rare weapon drops and forge them all. I have pulled 3/4 precursors I have had from the forge but I dont care how many I have put in. Because it is gambling. Either I get what I wanted or not, simple aas that and I move on.

yes, but gambling should not be the main route to obtaining something

it means you either have to gamble, or pay a price large enough that the gamblers make money, which means its going cost a noticeable amount more than it costs on average

phys.7689:

Ashen.2907:

Buttercup.5871:

Ensign.2189:

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

Without delving too far into the philosophy of random variables, the crux of predetermination is whether or not an outcome is knowable before the observation. If you shuffle a deck of cards and place it face down on the table, the order is determined – they have a physical order on the table – but barring marked cards or improper shuffling the identity of each card is unknown until it is observed (at which point it’s merely data).

So predetermination isn’t so much about whether or not there’s an immutable order, but whether or not that order is knowable without observation.

So if I’m putting that deck of cards to you every day at predetermined timed intervals and in the same order, you think a year later it’s still a mystery when the queen of spades is going to surface?

Are your perceptions sufficiently fast to react to the passage of milliseconds? If that predetemined timed interval is .001 seconds? A year later the act of pressing the buttons for operating the forge will be off. Your internet connection response varies slightly, your own nervous system response for pressing the keys varies slightly, your keyboard mechanical response varies slightly, your computer response time to keyboard input varies slightly. Your ability to factor all of those variances in order to activate a trade at the exact same millisecond each time is nonexistent.

people do have internal rythyms, it doesnt need to be exactly the same to eliminate possibilities, or generate patterns.

people arent clocks that consistently will go out of wack, they tend to reset their off timings eventually.

now, is this happening? who knows. The truth it doesnt matter if its really random or not, 1/1000 chances , that take people 2 months-12 months worth to try 1000 times, is a recipe for dissatisfaction.

Random working according to known rules is probably not going to give a lot of users a satisfactory experience.

It does need to be exact if you are intending to try to perform the action at exactly the same point in a cycle with a millisecond based reset pattern.

Sure people have rythms but nerve conductivity responds to diet and mechanical reaction can be influenced by elements as varied as weather, amount of sleep, and so on. Those rythms you mention exist within ranges not specific exact numbers as a norm. If you test an individual’s reaction time you Wi generally find that it varies from test to test within a range of possibilities. It may be a small range but even that small range will prevent one from accurately judging and responding to milliseconds.

Herre you go, OP. This thread is going nowhere fast, but atleast you can learn something useful:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Ashen.2907:

phys.7689:

Ashen.2907:

Buttercup.5871:

Ensign.2189:

Ashen.2907:

Predetermined and random are not mutually exclusive. If a predetermined result is determined randomly, and one does not know the randomly generated predetermined result, what is the difference?

Without delving too far into the philosophy of random variables, the crux of predetermination is whether or not an outcome is knowable before the observation. If you shuffle a deck of cards and place it face down on the table, the order is determined – they have a physical order on the table – but barring marked cards or improper shuffling the identity of each card is unknown until it is observed (at which point it’s merely data).

So predetermination isn’t so much about whether or not there’s an immutable order, but whether or not that order is knowable without observation.

So if I’m putting that deck of cards to you every day at predetermined timed intervals and in the same order, you think a year later it’s still a mystery when the queen of spades is going to surface?

Are your perceptions sufficiently fast to react to the passage of milliseconds? If that predetemined timed interval is .001 seconds? A year later the act of pressing the buttons for operating the forge will be off. Your internet connection response varies slightly, your own nervous system response for pressing the keys varies slightly, your keyboard mechanical response varies slightly, your computer response time to keyboard input varies slightly. Your ability to factor all of those variances in order to activate a trade at the exact same millisecond each time is nonexistent.

people do have internal rythyms, it doesnt need to be exactly the same to eliminate possibilities, or generate patterns.

people arent clocks that consistently will go out of wack, they tend to reset their off timings eventually.

now, is this happening? who knows. The truth it doesnt matter if its really random or not, 1/1000 chances , that take people 2 months-12 months worth to try 1000 times, is a recipe for dissatisfaction.

Random working according to known rules is probably not going to give a lot of users a satisfactory experience.

It does need to be exact if you are intending to try to perform the action at exactly the same point in a cycle with a millisecond based reset pattern.

Sure people have rythms but nerve conductivity responds to diet and mechanical reaction can be influenced by elements as varied as weather, amount of sleep, and so on. Those rythms you mention exist within ranges not specific exact numbers as a norm. If you test an individual’s reaction time you Wi generally find that it varies from test to test within a range of possibilities. It may be a small range but even that small range will prevent one from accurately judging and responding to milliseconds.

correct, but the point is those patterns, create a pattern within the random. Once there is patterns, it isnt going to be that random for that user.
The same thing can happen in real life, if a person has a habit of shuffling the same number of times, the same way, and starts from the same state, there will be less variation than probability would state is normal.

if you got a random seed, which was designed to produce a random like spread based on the user doing picking 1-10, but the users unconscious patterns almost never pick 5 of those numbers, you essentially get a system that is not as random as intended.

Sam Gem.1246:

I’m a logic person. After buying 3 precursors, I have done the math, using statistics and the experience of other people to persuade myself to use the mystic forge instead of buying the precursors. Basically, the odds of getting a pre is .2 % from rares. Using a cumulative binomial calculator, the odds of getting 1 or more pre from 350 attempts is 50%….
Well, after 1100 attempts, I’ve convinced myself to quit. I know.. 100 trolls will say good ridden. Whatever. I’ll never buy an Anet game or all other affiliates. You have wasted my time enough already…

You apparently don’t understand how probably works.

Just because your chance of getting an outcome is roughly in your favor probability-wise (which it isn’t actually in your favor assuming your numbers are right.) doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen.

You’re the one that chose to waste your own time frankly. There’s no requirement in game to get a legendary to access any content or any advantage so it’s totally optional.

public class RnGTest {
public static void main(String[] args) {
long max = Long.MIN_VALUE;
long min = Long.MAX_VALUE;
long lastHit = 0;
System.out.println(“Starting…”);
for (long count = 0; count < 10000000; count++) {
int rnd = (int)(Math.random() * 1000);
if (rnd == 123) {
long diff = count – lastHit;
lastHit = count;
max = Math.max(max, diff);
min = Math.min(min, diff);
}
}
System.out.println(“Complete.”);
System.out.println(String.format(“Min %d, Max %d”, min, max));
}
}

This program uses prng to create a 1 in 1000 chance and then calculates on a million tries the maximum streak and the minimum streak
between two hits.

A few runs:
Min 1, Max 10093
Min 1, Max 9812
Min 1, Max 9336
Min 1, Max 11568

What that means:

although the chance was 1 in 1000, on a million attempts the programs finds out that the maximum unlucky streak can be as much as 10000 attempts between hits. The minimal attempts btw. is more or less 1 always.

TL;DR:
a) It doesn’t work as you think.
b) RNG is crap as it is ignoring player commitment
c) I loved the moment when Spark dropped

Halvorn.9831:

public class RnGTest {
public static void main(String[] args) {
long max = Long.MIN_VALUE;
long min = Long.MAX_VALUE;
long lastHit = 0;
System.out.println(“Starting…”);
for (long count = 0; count < 10000000; count++) {
int rnd = (int)(Math.random() * 1000);
if (rnd == 123) {
long diff = count – lastHit;
lastHit = count;
max = Math.max(max, diff);
min = Math.min(min, diff);
}
}
System.out.println(“Complete.”);
System.out.println(String.format(“Min %d, Max %d”, min, max));
}
}

This program uses prng to create a 1 in 1000 chance and then calculates on a million tries the maximum streak and the minimum streak
between two hits.

A few runs:
Min 1, Max 10093
Min 1, Max 9812
Min 1, Max 9336
Min 1, Max 11568

What that means:

although the chance was 1 in 1000, on a million attempts the programs finds out that the maximum unlucky streak can be as much as 10000 attempts between hits. The minimal attempts btw. is more or less 1 always.

TL;DR:
a) It doesn’t work as you think.
b) RNG is crap as it is ignoring player commitment
c) I loved the moment when Spark dropped

just gonna throw this out there,
maximum attempts is infinite in any actually random situation. Though it may be unlikely.

your program is showing the results of its trial, which seems to be around 10k for the max out of 3 runs.
but it is completely within the realms of possibility to go longer.

Mirta.5029:

throwing a coin, your chances are 50% heads, 50% tails, however you could easily get heads 20 times in a row before you see tails.

I wouldn’t say easily. While each independent flip technically is a 50/50 chance, the probability of getting 20 in a row is (1/2)^20, which is a reeeeaallly small chance.

Halvorn.9831:

b) RNG is crap as it is ignoring player commitment

And if it started counting players commitment it would no longer be RNG and people would rage like made because you were “forced” to use the Mystic Forge in order to mechanically increase your chance to get stuff.

Lazaar.9123:

There is already going to be a different way of attaining precursors in the upcoming expansion.

It only took them 2+ years from first announcing said plans 4 months after release, and then putting that precursor “fix” behind the paywall that will be the expansion box.

Draknar.5748:

Mirta.5029:

throwing a coin, your chances are 50% heads, 50% tails, however you could easily get heads 20 times in a row before you see tails.

I wouldn’t say easily. While each independent flip technically is a 50/50 chance, the probability of getting 20 in a row is (1/2)^20, which is a reeeeaallly small chance.

The probability of getting any specific combination of 20 in a row is the exact same. The issue is that we’ve deemed some specific combinations to be preferable to others and thus are unhappy when those specific combinations do not appear.

As stated above, if the chance is not 100%, you should not fool yourself into assuming you will receive what you are looking for within a given number of tries. a 1% chance of failure can proc every single time you roll on a 99% probable outcome.

Much better to salvage the items you would toilet, sell them, or keep toileting for pvp/dungeon rewarded exotics.

Op showing his math skills that are wrong in every thing ever involving a random number generator.

If your chance of getting a pre is .2% from rares. No matter how many times you forge its still going to be .2%. It doesnt matter if you do it 500 times or 3.

lordkrall.7241:

Halvorn.9831:

b) RNG is crap as it is ignoring player commitment

And if it started counting players commitment it would no longer be RNG and people would rage like made because you were “forced” to use the Mystic Forge in order to mechanically increase your chance to get stuff.

Depends on what “commitment” really means. I think, the upcoming precursor collection hunt thingie may revolve around some sort of commitment. Doesn’t necessarily only take Mystic Flusher into account.

Apart from that, my c) is the real problem. The way it is constructed now, getting a precursor from a loot drop is rare and feels epic. Definitely one of my defining moments in game, maybe because it took 2 years.

Buttercup.5871:

Travis the Terrible.4739:

Op showing his math skills that are wrong in every thing ever involving a random number generator.

If your chance of getting a pre is .2% from rares. No matter how many times you forge its still going to be .2%. It doesnt matter if you do it 500 times or 3.

And you just showed that you didn’t read a single post in this thread. You’re assuming a true RNG system which this game does not have. It’s pseudo RNG meaning the rolls are predetermined. And if your lucky number for getting a precursor only pops up at times that you’re either asleep or at work, you can chuck whatever you want in that forge but the chance you’ll get a precursor is zero, not .2%.

Sorry to correct you, but you are wrong. PRNG is not the issue here.

Buttercup.5871:

Travis the Terrible.4739:

Op showing his math skills that are wrong in every thing ever involving a random number generator.

If your chance of getting a pre is .2% from rares. No matter how many times you forge its still going to be .2%. It doesnt matter if you do it 500 times or 3.

And you just showed that you didn’t read a single post in this thread. You’re assuming a true RNG system which this game does not have. It’s pseudo RNG meaning the rolls are predetermined. And if your lucky number for getting a precursor only pops up at times that you’re either asleep or at work, you can chuck whatever you want in that forge but the chance you’ll get a precursor is zero, not .2%.

there is no guarantee the seed is time based and not re rolled often.

there also isn’t any gurantee that it is in 1 pRNG alone it could have multiple seeds generated in some sort of nested way to increase how actually random it is and have the internal seeds reset at different times causing another reset down the line if you’re not a developer you can’t really even guess on how it works

@OP

It seems that your chief complaint is not that you didn’t get a pre after X amount of attempts, but that because you didn’t get a pre after X attempts, then your account has been “flagged, cursed, marked, etc.”.

It has been confirmed that there are 0 accounts that have been marked, or tampered with in such a way as to effect their Luck and or RNG tables. This is something that Anet simply does not, and will never do. So unless the devs are lying, which they have no reason to, then someone else who has a grude against you, and access to a voodoo witch doctor is responsible.

(And if they WERE out to get you with voodoo, or other occultic measures, why would they just target you GW2 account? Why not something like your job, or health, or something….Just saying.)

Or it could be 1 prng for the whole server, queried every single time a random number is used, so other players will influence it by their actions, which is completely uncontrollable.

Trust me, prng is not the problem.

pdavis.8031:

@OP

It seems that your chief complaint is not that you didn’t get a pre after X amount of attempts, but that because you didn’t get a pre after X attempts, then your account has been “flagged, cursed, marked, etc.”.

It has been confirmed that there are 0 accounts that have been marked, or tampered with in such a way as to effect their Luck and or RNG tables. This is someone that Anet simply does not, and will never do. So unless the devs are lying, which they have no reason to, then someone else who has a grude against you, and access to a voodoo witch doctor is responsible.

(And if they WERE out to get you with voodoo, or other occultic measures, why would they just target you GW2 account? Why not something like your job, or health, or something….Just saying.)

doesnt matter if he is flagged or not, he exists, and he is supposed to exist as long as the system is doing random according to our current expectations for random

Buttercup.5871:

Travis the Terrible.4739:

Op showing his math skills that are wrong in every thing ever involving a random number generator.

If your chance of getting a pre is .2% from rares. No matter how many times you forge its still going to be .2%. It doesnt matter if you do it 500 times or 3.

And you just showed that you didn’t read a single post in this thread. You’re assuming a true RNG system which this game does not have. It’s pseudo RNG meaning the rolls are predetermined. And if your lucky number for getting a precursor only pops up at times that you’re either asleep or at work, you can chuck whatever you want in that forge but the chance you’ll get a precursor is *zero, not .2%.*

Any evidence of this?

Buttercup.5871:

Travis the Terrible.4739:

Op showing his math skills that are wrong in every thing ever involving a random number generator.

If your chance of getting a pre is .2% from rares. No matter how many times you forge its still going to be .2%. It doesnt matter if you do it 500 times or 3.

And you just showed that you didn’t read a single post in this thread. You’re assuming a true RNG system which this game does not have. It’s pseudo RNG meaning the rolls are predetermined. And if your lucky number for getting a precursor only pops up at times that you’re either asleep or at work, you can chuck whatever you want in that forge but the chance you’ll get a precursor is zero, not .2%.

There is no “lucky number” bullkitten. I’ve pulled 3 precs out of the forge so far. First one was Howl, the precursor for Howler, back in in the middle of… I wanna say July? Was in early morning after completing a set of OCE raids with my guild. Second one I got was Chaos Gun in November, the same weekend I came back from a 2 month break, and I got it out of kitten I flushed from an evening set of raids with my guild. Third one I picked up a week or two ago was The Hunter (note, this is the ONLY precursor I’ve gotten by flushing it’s actual weapon type, in this case rifles). Got that one just before midnight I believe.

All this “predetermined” BS is contrary to RNG in the first place. Why would a system pre-seed results when it does not know what you’re going to put in? The amount of space it’d need to account for every possibility is disgustingly large. Especially if what you put into the system changes based on the order you put them in. So while the results of a given seed are determined by the seed itself, you have absolutely zero idea what the seed is, how it’s determined, and how that determines the results.

Furthermore, if the chance of a precursor is 0.2%, that means, ABSOLUTELY REGARDLESS OF YOUR PAST AND FUTURE RESULTS, you have exactly a 1 in 500 chance of rolling a precursor. That result stays true whether it’s your first attempt or your 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000th attempt. By their nature, “averages” means when accounting for all attempts over X time, the precursor to attempt rate is roughly 1:500. This doesnt mean you’re going to get 1 every 500 times you use the forge. It means for every 500 attempts you tried and failed to get a precursor, someone else got 2 precursors in 500 attempts.

Let’s look at it this way. Your first 10 attempts at the forge gives you 7 precursors. Your next 3989 attempts give you nothing. Smart people will understand that you’re just under the average result (7:3999). Those that complain about not getting precursors, however, only see the 0:3989 result.

Buttercup.5871:

“Because PRNGs generate random numbers by using mathematical formulae or precalculated lists, using one corresponds to someone rolling a die many times and writing down the results. Whenever you ask for a die roll, you get the next on the list. Effectively, the numbers appear random, but they are really predetermined.”

simple random system would be writing down numbers from 1 to 10 000 in a random order, using a statement to go trough all of it and pull a random number, keep that one then go trough the list again. There’s various ways of putting a randomizing system on top of another one, on top of another one in games. Rarely is it predetermined.

Sam Gem.1246:

I’m a logic person. After buying 3 precursors, I have done the math, using statistics and the experience of other people to persuade myself to use the mystic forge instead of buying the precursors. Basically, the odds of getting a pre is .2 % from rares. Using a cumulative binomial calculator, the odds of getting 1 or more pre from 350 attempts is 50%….
Well, after 1100 attempts, I’ve convinced myself to quit. I know.. 100 trolls will say good ridden. Whatever. I’ll never buy an Anet game or all other affiliates. You have wasted my time enough already…

Your logic is flawed because you disregard the fact that pre crafting is coming and you would rather spin the wheel with all your gold than be patient.

Buttercup.5871:

Halvorn.9831:

Or it could be 1 prng for the whole server, queried every single time a random number is used, so other players will influence it by their actions, which is completely uncontrollable.

Trust me, prng is not the problem.

That is the second time you imply that something else is the problem. So out with it: what, according to you, is the problem?

He’s implying that nothing is the problem because there is no problem. He’s also correct.

Buttercup.5871:

okay, my opinion is also that nothing has been tampered with and that according to the data everything is working as intended. Nothing is the problem.

Sry man but no one makes you use the MF its your own fault for losing these items to the MF. So its your own fault that your quitting the game not Anet.

Never use the forge.

I tried to used it, threw 200 gold in it, got few perl exotics, then took a 2 month break from the game.

This is comming from a person who never got anything worth over 30 gold in 2 and something years. Rng hates me i made peace with that.

I crafted myself minstrel because i have no gold for meteorologicus. I have to earn every single gold trough dungeons and sw farm and sell the mats. But it’s ok, at least i appreciate what i craft because of all the hard work.

On the other hand i know lot of people who buy gems with money and they get a precursor every now and then, like 1 every two months. Interesting.

And somebody posted not so long ago that in past 3 months he got about 9 precursors.

That’s rng for you.

Just don’t use the mystic toilet and flush your gold and you will be happy.

Buttercup.5871:

And you just showed that you didn’t read a single post in this thread. You’re assuming a true RNG system which this game does not have. It’s pseudo RNG meaning the rolls are predetermined. And if your lucky number for getting a precursor only pops up at times that you’re either asleep or at work, you can chuck whatever you want in that forge but the chance you’ll get a precursor is zero, not .2%.

i know only one rng system with predetermined numbers and thats xcom. and there it has a purpose because they wanted to avoid save skitten, but you can enable it in the options and get every time a new random generated number.
but please tell me, whats the advantage to use predeterminated list of numbers instead of generate them single? it just make no sense for a game like gw2, the math is not so complicated to create one that a processor cant handle it.

and a number must not be really random to be random enough, for example use just two variables, maybe milliseconds and the colour of a pixel, the outcome would not be true random but random enough to have no way to influence or foresee the outcome.

the chances that a brain searching for patterns in rng (and you know, brains do that) and find some where are none is way higher than a rng system that can be influenced in any way