Guild Wars 2

Over the course of the past year many players have asked about “wi flagging”. We are told time and time again that it is merely rng being rng. While watching other players get better drops, forge upgrades, and luck in general we have been told it’s just rng.

With the recent additions of champion boxes we have seen more rng, yet it seems to tell a story. The same accounts that have had favorable rng in the past seem to have favorable rng with the boxes as well.

With the additions of “zerg mania” those same player consistently get rare/exotic drops to boot.

So am I to believe that the same accounts have had better rng luck with every single rng aspect of the game is simply a matter of rng alone? At the same time am I to believe the the same accounts with poor rng luck have remained having poor rng with every rng element since launch?

The thing about odds is that they level out over time. The lucky and the unlucky will eventually move towards the center and the outliers minimize. Yet somehow some accounts seem to be immune to the effects of time within this game.

So in closing I just want to ask the devs to plz “take another look” into “wi flagging”. Thx

Everyone will say RNG is RNG and talk about tin foil hats.

Truth is, there are a couple guildies of mine that consistantly get good drops. One has had three precursor drops. Consistantly gets exotics from the MF. Just overwhelming better drops than most in the guild.

Then there are a few of us guildies that decent drops seem to be extinct. I can do multiple dungeon runs and farm with this ‘lucky’ guildie and our drops in comparison are way out of touch with each other.

Just my experience, and I agree with the OP. It might just be RNG, but it is either consistant bad RNG or consistant good RNG. The RNG factor has not evened out over time for either of these. You either have good RNG or bad RNG.

It’s RNG.

You can look at me. I farmed and farmed and farmed.

And in a 1 month span I got a Dusk and The Legend. Impressive right?

But not as much when you consider how many hours I farmed and that I use MF gear every single time I did open world PvE.

Or how about the Mystic Forge? Well one day I decided to go on another gambling spree. I ended up with getting Dusk in a 100g spending session. A few weeks later I tried my hand once again (this time with stones), and I got Zap. Impressive?

Not when you consider that before that I wasted 900g since the start of release on the forge, and got no precursors.

Fact is, you will have winners and you will have losers. Or as I like to call it, the successes of the few are paid for by the many. There will be very few people who will get extremely lucky and make it out way on top. There will be considerably more people who will end up status quo and break even (like me). And then there’s the majority of the playerbase that fails at odds and loses more than they wanted.

Over 3000 hours played and I’ve only gotten one exotic drop. I threw in about 2000 rares and 1,500 exotics into the mystic forge (that I bought) and I lost about 1000 gold. No more rng. For the love of all that is good in this world, help stop future mmorpg’s from using more rng by stopping it in this game.

And another thing, you need to look at is playstyles

If you have three players, all with 3000 hours in game…

And one of them constantly farms and has a high kill rate per hour

And the other only runs dungeons

And the 3rd just does WvW

Well, who is going to have the most rolls at loot? The first dude is going to have a greater chance at rolling epic loot that makes him rich.

Kill/rate per hour is an extremely important factor.

Galtrix.7369:

Over 3000 hours played and I’ve only gotten one exotic drop. I threw in about 2000 rares and 1,500 exotics into the mystic forge (that I bought) and I lost about 1000 gold. No more rng. For the love of all that is good in this world, help stop future mmorpg’s from using more rng by stopping it in this game.

^ prime example

Go look at the link in my sig. I haven’t even updated it in months and I’ve probably had 20 more exotics since I last updated it.

Two points.

First, it’s probably RNG. Humans a prewired to see patterns even where there are none. People have speculated that this is because detecting a false pattern (assuming that the rustle is a tiger when it’s nothing) is better than not detecting a true pattern (assuming that the rustle is nothing when it’s a tiger). That’s not perfectly said, but you get the point.

Here is a real intersting talk about it. http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shermer_the_pattern_behind_self_deception.html
The other think that he Michael Shermer says is that people tend to see more patterns when they feel out of control. So RNG, is the worst for that.

Now, I think anyone interested in maintaining customer satisfaction would take that into account. But that’s just me.

Second, the “successes of the few are paid for my the many” is exactly what will eventually make me quit this game.

It is RNG yet……..
…..It is not RNG.

The roll itself is random however loot is programed to have a higher chance at some things then others. Magic find helps improving those chances.

Before you start coming up with theories about “lucky” and “unlucky” accounts, there are a few things that you have to consider.

First off, how large is your sample? Are we talking two guys in a guild of 400? Or 2 guys on your friend list of 20?

Second off, there’s selection bias. People are more likely to talk about their successes than their failures. So keep in mind that while you might be hearing loud and clear about the two guys who have ended up making profit from the Mystic Forge, there’s a mass of quiet people who have made losses that far outnumber the profits those vocal few made.

Third off, ask yourself one simple question. What would a developer have to gain from implementing a system where certain accounts are “lucky” and others are “unlucky”? Because let me tell you, unless it leads to a easy-to-predict, guaranteed monetary gain, it’s not in the game. You don’t put in unnecessary mechanics, especially when the code is maintained by dozens of people.

^^All good points both from Vol and from TooBz. The main factor to consider in retention for these players that feel ‘unlucky’ is there anything in place to compensate for the losses either at the Mystic Forge or after +1000 hours of direct farming. Is there a way to break an unlucky streak or work towards a precursor. Supposedly we will be getting ‘something’.
I don’t play for the loot but at the same time I am envious of the extremely lucky. And when I say extreme I mean the kind that get multiple drops or multiple forges within a relatively short time frame.
I don’t subscribe to the philosophy that every player should get a precursor handed to them. But for those multiples that pay the way for the few, they only do for just so long if there’s no hope for change. Then when that threshold is reached, they move on.

I think they at least took a step in the right direction with BL scraps, but still have a long ways to go. It is hard to make a reality come true where people should not be handed precursors by breathing, but allows an actual, tangible progress to be seen where the player is not completely at the whim of the RNG Gods.

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

The beginnings of the Wi Flag and it’s affect on aggro in Asheron’s Call.

The same effect can, due to the way loot is affected by MF, damage done, etc., happen in things like random loot (rng) very easily if user ID’s are not properly accounted for in the math.

I’m becoming more and more of a believer that there is indeed a ‘wi flag’ issue in GW2. It is simply statistically impossible for one of my guildies to obtain over 20 precursors from the mystic toilet using less than half the rares I have and received none. It is just not possible. That is not range… That would be like winning the lottery without even buying a ticket but because the drawing was rigged or some other outside affect occurred.

ThePedroKid.2580:

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

The beginnings of the Wi Flag and it’s affect on aggro in Asheron’s Call.

The same effect can, due to the way loot is affected by MF, damage done, etc., happen in things like random loot (rng) very easily if user ID’s are not properly accounted for in the math.

I’m becoming more and more of a believer that there is indeed a ‘wi flag’ issue in GW2. It is simply statistically impossible for one of my guildies to obtain over 20 precursors from the mystic toilet using less than half the rares I have and received none. It is just not possible. That is not range… That would be like winning the lottery without even buying a ticket but because the drawing was rigged or some other outside affect occurred.

Wow. That’s an incredibly stupid bug.

I could certainly see something like this happening, especially if the rewards are pooled across multiple people and then subsequently divided. For example, if 10 people qualify for loot from a champion, 10 items are determined, and then the 10 items are distributed. As opposed to each person who hits the champion gets a separate roll.

This could also easily occur if there’s a cooldown after a precursor is given (e.g. no more precursors for 5 seconds), then if people always roll in order, some people have a better chance to get them then others.

Not that we will ever know.

I have always wondered how they ultimately control how many precursors can drop during a ‘set’ time period. Theoretically everyone could get a precursor from the MF in one day, however improbable that may be, it is still possible with pure RNG.
There must be some sort of check and balance to keep this from occurring.