We are heroes. This is what we do!
RIP City of Heroes
RIP City of Heroes
(edited by Behellagh.1468)
RNG Conspiracy Conundrum
4273 hours over 981 days and no precursor ,let alone a chance at the beta test.
Frustrated ? Of course I am.But its just a game not the end of the world.If theirs a “conspiracy” who cares ,It’s just a game.
Take a break,grow a beard,draw flies.Come back in a week.because its not worth anyones mental health to worry or care about.It’s just a game.
There’s 4 threads on page 1 relating to this issue. I don’t care much because honestly I grinded out everything and I’m done grinding as I have everything I’d want. Maybe that makes me somewhat biased but I do feel there is some type of issue occurring here
Yes, there is an issue. It is however not a game issue, but a psychological one.
Really? Black and white thinking is also a psychological issue. What do you have to lose by this being investigated?
It has been investigated. Anet’s answer? RNG process used in drop assignment doesn’t even get close to any of the character/account data, beyond the MF value.
It’s just that some people do not want to believe this answer. And this is a psychological problem.
Good point, but about the seed numbers. We know thats its not tied to character or account number or anything but…(puts on tinfoil hat) what if it’s tied to the activation code?
Theoretically it is possible that every single account has a separate seed (instead of a single rng process that supplies all random activity in the game), but that’s extremely unlikely, as it would be a really dumb programming. Especially since in this case it would require a separate seed not only for each account, but also for each type of activity (so that loot drop rolls will not be in the same queue as attack and damage rolls, for example).
Basically, someone would need to intentionally program the rng system in a really inefficient and unintuitive way.
And/Or the rng is fine but it has to interact with other account modifiers to produce loot and a product of that interaction causes discrepancies.
Anet already said that no such interaction happens. Again, you are free to disbelieve, but then there’s no point for you to ask them to check it, since you are already assuming they lied the first time.
Everything else in these threads aside…Why is that a good thing to have in a game? (accounts that remain on the low end of the curve)
Now, that’s a good question. Yes, in my opinion there should be streak breakers, or other methods of negating the “low outlier” experience. That is however not because RNG is broken (since it isn’t), but because it is working right (which has some negative consequences).
Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Remember, remember, 15th of November
I know my chace to get got ting is realy low begus my gaming rng over all games is stupidly low i have playd now 981 days and i know its low thads why i am not ifen trying for the beta key just to the sw evends begus every one is toing them and its better formy ifen if iam loot scrup to get ifen bit more junk to get bit money i know for me ifen after week of playing sw evend train in sw no bete portal and ifen person in guild who was ther for 15m total got portal then it means i am not getig it for 100% . And sorry for my bad writing seims the world hates dyleksiks
I’m not sure why people believe if a Portal drops for one person, it negates the chance for it to drop for another. Do they apply this same train of thought to every item in the game? Is there a belief that there are only so many precursors to go around, just as, it seems, there is the belief that only so many Portals have been added to the loot rolls?
And…if ‘unlucky’ accounts should be altered, then it would only be fair, I suppose, to alter ‘lucky’ accounts, as well. Then everyone can have everything available. Nothing will be rare or drop less often.
Another thread, another failure to understand statistical variance.
Also, your presented dichotomy is a false equivalence. You admit in your very first paragraph that there is no evidence to support “RNG is Borked”. To quote Christopher Hitchens, “That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
The evidence is that it is a possibility that RNG could or may be rigged. Yes it cannot be proven without insider knowledge, but we know that’s not the point.
Fact: Its a reasonable possibility. Its doesn’t need to be proven because it is “proof” in and of itself.
But it’s worse than that. We can not only dismiss the claim without evidence because it has none supporting it, we have evidence to indicate it is not the case. Even a cursory understanding of statistics would allow one to see that just by pure chance on a sample size as large as the player population would lead to many (a large number, but a small percent) having an uncanny drop rate for good loot (in both directions, lots and none). What we see is exactly what would be expected from a reasonable, working, unbiased RNG.
Evidence=/=Proof
You cannot dismiss yolo swaggins’s claim because it does not claim anything, other than a possibility that cannot physically be proven, as of now. We do not have the actual algorithms that tell us exactly how the RNG works and no amount of sampling will change that. Statistical estimates will be as far as we go, and they still only be evidence.
Furthermore, any suggestion that ANet would actually have an incentive to create an intentionally, and secretly, broken RNG system is specious at best. The cost benefit of such a move is wholly in the red. Even if you think that the arguments for its effectiveness at making ANet more money would actually work (which I do not think they would), the additional amount that it would make the company is far outweighed by the negative repercussions that would follow should such a plan actually come to light.
The RNG as it stands is far from ideal, nor is the system in itself satisfactory. The Magic find that’s supposed to improve you loot, can’t do that because all the chests you open aren’t affected by it. It what it does affect(mob drops), it does very little of, if a precursor is the goal. Only Anet can answer the question of “feasibility of change” but what they can’t deny is mediocrity of the system’s “reward effectiveness vs player dedication” job.
I’m also quite sure that some one at ANet actually has gone and run the numbers (because they actually have access to the data) to detect if there is a problem as described. And I’m sure that what they’ve found very closely matches the distribution that would be expected from an unbiased RNG, and that the only reason they haven’t come forward with their data is because there would be no point. Those conspiracy theorists that defend the idea that there are “cursed” and “blessed” accounts are not going to be convinced by the math because people like me have already tried. ANet trying to do so would only fall on deaf ears who would only see ANet’s attempt to assuage their concerns as an attempt to cover up the truth, because that’s how conspiracies are fed; how conspiracy theorists react to cognitive the dissonance of confronting evidence that does not conform to their beliefs. It all must be part of the conspiracy.
Again, assumption for the sake of logic an assumption. Having access to the data that they’ve created does not mean they’ve bothered to test it extensively. I would hope that they did, but we cannot say that they did.
Logic does not pick sides. That is the job of common sense, but because it is common sense, it does not apply to where there can be duality.
“Man this jungle in the expansion better look so good it gives me flashbacks to Nam.”
Server: Dragonbrand
Guild: Knights of Ares [ARES]
Server: Dragonbrand
Guild: Knights of Ares [ARES]
(edited by Geneaux.9547)
The evidence is that it is a possibility that RNG could or may be rigged. Yes it cannot be proven without insider knowledge, but we know that’s not the point.
Fact: Its a reasonable possibility. Its doesn’t need to be proven because it is “proof” in and of itself.
Possibility does not automatically become a reasonable possibility without any proof. So far not only i have seen no proof that is more concrete than loud shouting and handwaving, but the conspiracy theories i have heard so far were in general pretty unreasonable (with many going well beyond that, into the realm of ridiculous or downright hilarious).
Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Remember, remember, 15th of November
(edited by Astralporing.1957)
The evidence is that it is a possibility that RNG could or may be rigged. Yes it cannot be proven without insider knowledge, but we know that’s not the point.
Fact: Its a reasonable possibility. Its doesn’t need to be proven because it is “proof” in and of itself.
Possibility does not automatically become a reasonable possibility without any proof. So far not only i have seen no proof that is more concrete than loud shouting and handwaving, but the conspiracy theories i have heard so far were in general pretty unreasonable (with many going well beyond that, into the realm of ridiculous or downright hilarious).
I’ve already given the “proof”: none of us work for Anet, none of us have the exact algorithms the servers use to calculate RNG, and none us can say can say whether or not unknown actors are at play. All if this can be gathered without attempting to prove anything, yet it does when the “point” being made is a “possibility”.
Possibility is the hypothetical, not the actual.
“Man this jungle in the expansion better look so good it gives me flashbacks to Nam.”
Server: Dragonbrand
Guild: Knights of Ares [ARES]
Server: Dragonbrand
Guild: Knights of Ares [ARES]
Now even though technology has made it possible to generate “truely” random numbers, it doesn’t mean anet has that technology. In fact, that is highly improbable. It would be financially impractical and unprofitable compared to the bullet points I provided above.
I think your conclusions and your opinion about “highly improbable” are wrong.
The technology to create pseudo random numbers that are so random/unpredictable that they can not be distinguished from “truely” random numbers in the context of this game is in no way expensive, impractical or improbable.
And about your speculations about business-decisions: Same results could be achieved with unbiased random numbers.
To be clear. I do not say the RNG is borked, nor do I say it is not.
But every software developer knows, that every software, that is not trivial, has (unknown) bugs. So there is a possibility, that the software for the “random loot distribution” actually still has bugs and that we see the results of that. We do not have proof that it has bugs and we do not have proof, that it does not have bugs. But software bugs are still a possibility.
Honestly I really doubt that the people believing that there’s lucky/unlucky accounts or that the RNG is borked are on the right track. The problem with this game has been the same problem since day one – RNG is everywhere. I don’t know why it seems to be so difficult to grasp, but I’ve never played a game before GW2 where running the easiest dungeon was just as rewarding as running the hardest dungeon.
The evidence is that it is a possibility that RNG could or may be rigged. Yes it cannot be proven without insider knowledge, but we know that’s not the point.
Fact: Its a reasonable possibility. Its doesn’t need to be proven because it is “proof” in and of itself.
Possibility does not automatically become a reasonable possibility without any proof. So far not only i have seen no proof that is more concrete than loud shouting and handwaving, but the conspiracy theories i have heard so far were in general pretty unreasonable (with many going well beyond that, into the realm of ridiculous or downright hilarious).
I’ve already given the “proof”: none of us work for Anet, none of us have the exact algorithms the servers use to calculate RNG, and none us can say can say whether or not unknown actors are at play. All if this can be gathered without attempting to prove anything, yet it does when the “point” being made is a “possibility”.
Possibility is the hypothetical, not the actual.
Yes. Hypothetical. Not reasonable.
Hypothetically, Aliens and Illuminati can exist as well, but if you’ll start using this as a basis for discussion, without any proof of their existence, you will be only laughed at (and for a good reason).
…and some of the RNG conspiracy theories are not even hypothetical, they are just dumb.
TL/DR: you can say that we can’t prove you’re wrong, but i still say that the possibility of you being right, while it does exist, is so vanishingly small we may as well ignore it without any further data.
Seriously, the only thing most of those threads are good for is a good laugh (double points if you know a bit about probability or programming, or both, and can spot the rampant ignorance). And sometimes not even that.
Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Remember, remember, 15th of November
(edited by Astralporing.1957)
Its not a conspiracy.
NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)
True but the current PRNG used pass numerous rigorous statistical tests to prove it is similar enough to a true RNG generator (that uses radioactive decay) to be indistinguishable.
No, it is not true. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator.
For a first read.
Apart from that the rest of this discussion is…. amusing.
“RNG is RNG”
The main issue here is a lack of understanding regarding the nature of programming.
Yes, after working as a software engineer and architect dealing with RNG, cryptography and security for 25+ years, it MUST be a lack of understanding on my side rather than yours. Because it cannot potentially be true that you might be wrong, or?
Reading through this thread I start to understand why creationism is even a thing.
The fact that a thread like this exists show there’s a very serious problem. I can’t remember any other mmo having such a strong debate about this…maybe a few ppl here and there…but the majority of oldschool players in this game QQ about this. It’s been discussed for years how rewardless this game feels and in the majority of cases is.
The recent wave of ppl getting abnormal drops all of a sudden with new accounts only adds to this issue. On top of which you add the complete silence from the gamedevs and you pretty much have the result you see now. For me silence means indirectly confirming it. That being said, even if they answered doesn’t mean they wouldn’t lie.
Even if the system is working as intended, which i personally doubt, if customers are not happy with a product, that product has to be changed in order to meet the demands. It would be interesting to see them make a poll and see how many ppl think their reward system is good/acceptable/bad.
(edited by Rebound.3409)
The evidence is that it is a possibility that RNG could or may be rigged. Yes it cannot be proven without insider knowledge, but we know that’s not the point.
Fact: Its a reasonable possibility. Its doesn’t need to be proven because it is “proof” in and of itself.
Possibility does not automatically become a reasonable possibility without any proof. So far not only i have seen no proof that is more concrete than loud shouting and handwaving, but the conspiracy theories i have heard so far were in general pretty unreasonable (with many going well beyond that, into the realm of ridiculous or downright hilarious).
I’ve already given the “proof”: none of us work for Anet, none of us have the exact algorithms the servers use to calculate RNG, and none us can say can say whether or not unknown actors are at play. All if this can be gathered without attempting to prove anything, yet it does when the “point” being made is a “possibility”.
Possibility is the hypothetical, not the actual.
Yes. Hypothetical. Not reasonable.
Hypothetically, Aliens and Illuminati can exist as well, but if you’ll start using this as a basis for discussion, without any proof of their existence, you will be only laughed at (and for a good reason).…and some of the RNG conspiracy theories are not even hypothetical, they are just dumb.
TL/DR: you can say that we can’t prove you’re wrong, but i still say that the possibility of you being right, while it does exist, is so vanishingly small we may as well ignore it without any further data.
Seriously, the only thing most of those threads are good for is a good laugh (double points if you know a bit about probability or programming, or both, and can spot the rampant ignorance). And sometimes not even that.
Fair enough, can’t argue any further.
“Man this jungle in the expansion better look so good it gives me flashbacks to Nam.”
Server: Dragonbrand
Guild: Knights of Ares [ARES]
Server: Dragonbrand
Guild: Knights of Ares [ARES]
The evidence is that it is a possibility that RNG could or may be rigged. Yes it cannot be proven without insider knowledge, but we know that’s not the point.
Fact: Its a reasonable possibility. Its doesn’t need to be proven because it is “proof” in and of itself.
Possibility does not automatically become a reasonable possibility without any proof. So far not only i have seen no proof that is more concrete than loud shouting and handwaving, but the conspiracy theories i have heard so far were in general pretty unreasonable (with many going well beyond that, into the realm of ridiculous or downright hilarious).
I’ve already given the “proof”: none of us work for Anet, none of us have the exact algorithms the servers use to calculate RNG, and none us can say can say whether or not unknown actors are at play. All if this can be gathered without attempting to prove anything, yet it does when the “point” being made is a “possibility”.
Possibility is the hypothetical, not the actual.
Yes. Hypothetical. Not reasonable.
Hypothetically, Aliens and Illuminati can exist as well, but if you’ll start using this as a basis for discussion, without any proof of their existence, you will be only laughed at (and for a good reason).…and some of the RNG conspiracy theories are not even hypothetical, they are just dumb.
TL/DR: you can say that we can’t prove you’re wrong, but i still say that the possibility of you being right, while it does exist, is so vanishingly small we may as well ignore it without any further data.
Seriously, the only thing most of those threads are good for is a good laugh (double points if you know a bit about probability or programming, or both, and can spot the rampant ignorance). And sometimes not even that.Fair enough, can’t argue any further.
Let this stand as a testament to arguing on the internet; a monument that proudly displays an example of people having a reasonable discussion and coming to some amount of common ground and understanding. Let it not be said that the internet is only for porn, cats, and trolling, for here, I proclaim, there has been communication!
Almost brings a tear to my eye.
If anybody want to prove there is a conspiracy, you would have to get enough samples. I’m talking about tens of thousands of people having the exact same experience and logging every little loot every single time as proof.
The truth is, you can’t prove it. How many people have come forward about this? 10? 20? 50? You know that’s not a big enough sample. For those 50 people, there could be 200 who haven’t seen any difference between their accounts and haven’t said a word on the forum or reddit because there’s nothing to say.
Is it possible? Yes.
Can you prove it? No.
If anybody want to prove there is a conspiracy, you would have to get enough samples. I’m talking about tens of thousands of people having the exact same experience and logging every little loot every single time as proof.
The truth is, you can’t prove it. How many people have come forward about this? 10? 20? 50? You know that’s not a big enough sample. For those 50 people, there could be 200 who haven’t seen any difference between their accounts and haven’t said a word on the forum or reddit because there’s nothing to say.
Is it possible? Yes.
Can you prove it? No.
Indeed. Perhaps all we should do with threads like this in the future is spam them with:
“Repeat after me: The plural of anecdote is not data!”
…but the majority of oldschool players in this game QQ about this.
Just out of curiosity: how do you know it’s a “majority” rather than a few ten or maybe hundred repeating their complaints over and over again, making you feel it’s a majority?
The thing is with all of these people who keep using failed arguments against the actual evidence at hand showing that there’s a problem with the loot system (disappearing chests anyone?) is that they keep trying to say that the loot algorithms are the same as those found elsewhere by saying that RNG is RNG but that’s not the system we’re seeing here. DR is a factor in determining if you even GET the loot you just rolled for.
There’s a reason why Historically all other MMO developers have stopped using DR and this IS the reason, because it not only stops players (not Bots) from getting their loot, but it also causes all kinds of bugs that are extremely hard to detect even though the playerbase is in fact experiencing them.
It’s well documented in MMO development history, as one of the worst loot systems one could use. It’s certainly NOT a new issue nor is it mysterious. Those of us who’ve been around playing MMO games for a long time now remember those companies that tried to use this same system and we remember what happened to those companies when they used them and insisted on keeping DR even with the problems.
So really it’s not simply RNG.
Balance Team: Please Fix Mine Toolbelt Positioning!
…but the majority of oldschool players in this game QQ about this.
Just out of curiosity: how do you know it’s a “majority” rather than a few ten or maybe hundred repeating their complaints over and over again, making you feel it’s a majority?
From the nr of ppl i know ingame, since beta till now…from the experiences and discussions i had in various guilds..and guilds of my friends. From hearing ppl who had both good luck and bad luck via PM in 2y+.
That majority is limited to the ppl i had and still have contact with (which is a lot but that doesn’t mean a ton)…and to that “personal majority” i also add my personal experience.
So yes..the majority of ppl i know, keep in touch, talk to, including my experience. Overall most of us had a bad experience when it comes down to rewards/loot. Like me…others with their friends/contacts and so on come and say similar things. If 1 says it he’s dumb…if 2 say it…they are stupid..but the more ppl come out and say similar things/experiences that’s when you have to start asking yourself who’s what.
Rewards in general have been subject to different opinions mostly starting from negative experiences for a LOT of time now. Personally i think there’s a problem, specially when talking about consistent abnormal drops for new players in a very short timespan. Opposed to me you personally might think it’s ok for your own reasons which i can respect but will never see as more important as my own personal experience.
If i have a bad experience with something nobody can come and prove “the lack of literally any good drop i had” as being actually good. What do you want me to do? Go ingame thinking “oh some guy told me it’s actually good getting worthless rewards for the countless hours i put in..i shouldn’t even think about it anymore..tralalalalala” ? However much you might say it’s “good” my personal experience and time wasted proves it wrong each time.
(edited by Rebound.3409)
What we see is exactly what would be expected from a reasonable, working, unbiased RNG.
A couple summers ago I spent a lot of time recording detailed data from things like the mystic forge, bags, mining nodes, and the like – not just aggregate output numbers, but drop by drop recordings.
Thousands upon thousands of records, and the whole set is entirely consistent with a maximum entropy (zero memory) process. I’ve beaten it with every tool in the book at this point, and there’s no funny sub-sampling or dynamic behavior going on. It’s a perfectly boring draw with replacement system.
My numbers are also wholly consistent with every other big data post I’ve ever seen over the years – so if there is such an ‘unlucky’ or ‘lucky’ account out there, it has never actually been observed under statistical scrutiny.
The fact that a thread like this exists show there’s a very serious problem. I can’t remember any other mmo having such a strong debate about this…maybe a few ppl here and there…but the majority of oldschool players in this game QQ about this. It’s been discussed for years how rewardless this game feels and in the majority of cases is.
The recent wave of ppl getting abnormal drops all of a sudden with new accounts only adds to this issue. On top of which you add the complete silence from the gamedevs and you pretty much have the result you see now. For me silence means indirectly confirming it. That being said, even if they answered doesn’t mean they wouldn’t lie.
Even if the system is working as intended, which i personally doubt, if customers are not happy with a product, that product has to be changed in order to meet the demands. It would be interesting to see them make a poll and see how many ppl think their reward system is good/acceptable/bad.
Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.
Second, those complaining about lack of drops have a notable LACK of information about what they’re doing. Brand new accounts? Most of them are probably doing open world stuff, things that help level characters and AP. The “old” accounts? Sitting in LA griping or running dungeons. On top of that, the devs arent going to say kitten, because they’ve [b]already stated it[/i]. Why would they repeat something that players have been repeating when it’s clear people who are utterly convinced otherwise (like those wearing tinfoil) refuse to listen? For you, their silence may be an indirect confirmation of an “issue,” but for the rest of us, them not saying anything is perfectly reasonable.
Why is it reasonable? One, JS has stated nothing about your account (this includes your serial code, for mr tinfoil above that mentioned it) other than your magic find boost affects RNG. Two, he’s stated it repeatedly in multiple threads. Three, he’s the game’s Economist, someone who’s definitely going to know more about the RNG than say, Gaile. Especially when said RNG has an impact on the economy he’s in charge of monitoring. Four, a working RNG is going to have outliers, both those with abysmal luck, like the OP of every friggin “RNGesus hates meh” thread, and those who can pull out back to back precursors. I’m in the middle of the average and better luck right now, having recently pulled an ascended chest out of a champ bag. If I was on my desktop I’d upload a picture of it. Fifth, Anet probably understands there’s no reasoning with these people, so arent going to validate their non-concerns, whether with an affirmative or not.
As a sidenote, the OP of one of the other threads has been directly told by JS that account-determined luck is a steaming pile of dolyak kitten. Twice.
Finally, you get to/make a good point. Does the system work? Yes. Does the system work as intended? Quite likely. Does the system work as players think it was intended? Clearly not when you get threads like this. The last one is where a lot of players base their “it dont work” argument. It’s also why JS made a thread asking about the different options working WITH rng (not replacing) with alternate systems, similar to dungeon tokens and fractal relics. While the same idea, they’re different systems- one is for obtaining loot you cant get without doing the dungeon (sans pvp) even though the dungeon doesnt drop it directly (be nice if it could), and the other is a system for obtaining loot if RNG doesnt roll in your favor to give you the exact one you want/need.
And honestly, such a poll would be worthless. New players wouldnt know what to answer (or give “IT’S GREAT”) while other players who have spent weeks/months farming for a precursor will probably give the “it sucks balls” answer despite having gotten frequent exotics and ascended drops. Confirmation bias and perception would utterly destroy the premise of the poll.
The assertions that “RNG is broken” has ANOTHER possibility that is being ignored by the OP….it’s a flaw in the programming code (not an intentional “feature” Anet is secretly hiding from the player base). To assume the “secret code” rather than the “bugged code” theory DOES lead me to “conspiracy theory” jokes and the continual rolling of my eyes when I see these type of posts.
What I find massively unbelievable is that there are players that appear to 100% believe the idea that some secret “luck” stat exists on accounts (or characters) that effect the game’s RNG and they also believe it is something Anet can alter at will and that the changes are made based on such things as how many gems the player buys or if the account post negative comments on the internet.
Ok, I get there are some people that want to find the “answer that’s out there” (cue Twilight Zone music), but what I don’t understand is WHY they would continue to play the game if they are so convinced the company running it is so evil, greedy, nefarious and vindictive as to perform these believed actions. If they are so convinced the game is rigged, why continue to play it?
We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
What we see is exactly what would be expected from a reasonable, working, unbiased RNG.
A couple summers ago I spent a lot of time recording detailed data from things like the mystic forge, bags, mining nodes, and the like – not just aggregate output numbers, but drop by drop recordings.
Thousands upon thousands of records, and the whole set is entirely consistent with a maximum entropy (zero memory) process. I’ve beaten it with every tool in the book at this point, and there’s no funny sub-sampling or dynamic behavior going on. It’s a perfectly boring draw with replacement system.
My numbers are also wholly consistent with every other big data post I’ve ever seen over the years – so if there is such an ‘unlucky’ or ‘lucky’ account out there, it has never actually been observed under statistical scrutiny.
I’m not sure I understand the point you’re getting at with your post. Did you mean to refute or support my post. If you’ve done an extensive study, I would hope you understand that on a sample size much larger than yours (the entire game’s population), one would expect to see more outliers. But I can definitely agree, we’ve never seen such outliers presented with any kind of rigorousness. All we get is a dozen stories about some one who knows a guy who knows a guy who put 4 rares into the forge and got 4 eternity’s out.
Also, I, and probably others on these forums, would be interested to see what data you have for curiosity’s sake. Not that I think there’s anything hokey going on, just that we never get to see good examples of drop rate percentages in this game because mods are not allowed which makes data much harder to collect. Though, I’d recommend posting your data in a new thread; maybe link to it here.
The assertions that “RNG is broken” has ANOTHER possibility that is being ignored by the OP….it’s a flaw in the programming code (not an intentional “feature” Anet is secretly hiding from the player base). To assume the “secret code” rather than the “bugged code” theory DOES lead me to “conspiracy theory” jokes and the continual rolling of my eyes when I see these type of posts.
What I find massively unbelievable is that there are players that appear to 100% believe the idea that some secret “luck” stat exists on accounts (or characters) that effect the game’s RNG and they also believe it is something Anet can alter at will and that the changes are made based on such things as how many gems the player buys or if the account post negative comments on the internet.
Ok, I get there are some people that want to find the “answer that’s out there” (cue Twilight Zone music), but what I don’t understand is WHY they would continue to play the game if they are so convinced the company running it is so evil, greedy, nefarious and vindictive as to perform these believed actions. If they are so convinced the game is rigged, why continue to play it?
The answer to your question is that they presume that the supposed issue is a bug or mistake that ANet will remove if it’s found. They presume that “better drops” are the intended behavior, and that once the bug is found, they will get “better” drops.
This assumption flies in the face of the actual system in use, in which 99.9999% (number made up, actual number may vary slightly) percent of drops are intended as salvage bait, with a few massive material sinks (Ascended, the valuable MF stuff and Legendary weapons) bolstering the price of the salvage output. Even exotics are not all that valuable, with certain runes or sigils being somewhat of an exception.
It’s much more likely that if there is a bug, the bug benefits the “lucky” account rather than hurting the “unlucky” one.
RNG is Borked:To the people who come down on the Borked side, because RnG is by its very nature a system of intended random variances, any argument to the functional contrary can always be explained as just the way random generation works. There is nothing we players can do without access to the actual code. The perceived problem could just be a long string of outlying exception nodes.
RNG is RNG:To the purveyors of the RNG is RNG group, let us not be so quick to forget that Final Rest was ‘working as intended’ of over a year! Nor can we just dismiss the possibility that there is indeed a hidden problem just because the proposed cause seems unlikely.
Now even though technology has made it possible to generate “truely” random numbers, it doesn’t mean anet has that technology. In fact, that is highly improbable. It would be financially impractical and unprofitable compared to the bullet points I provided above.
I think your conclusions and your opinion about “highly improbable” are wrong.
The technology to create pseudo random numbers that are so random/unpredictable that they can not be distinguished from “truely” random numbers in the context of this game is in no way expensive, impractical or improbable.
And about your speculations about business-decisions: Same results could be achieved with unbiased random numbers.
To be clear. I do not say the RNG is borked, nor do I say it is not.
But every software developer knows, that every software, that is not trivial, has (unknown) bugs. So there is a possibility, that the software for the “random loot distribution” actually still has bugs and that we see the results of that. We do not have proof that it has bugs and we do not have proof, that it does not have bugs. But software bugs are still a possibility.
I’ll agree with bugs too. But then we have to look at Anet and wonder if they’ll ever notice it.
Liaison for [Teef]
“Please stop complaining about stuff you don’t even know about.” ~Nocta
“Please stop complaining about stuff you don’t even know about.” ~Nocta
Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.
On the contrary, when you are a business serving customers, a perceived problem is a real problem. It may not be a technical problem or a computing problem, but it is still real in the sense that something you are doing is making your customers vocally unhappy, and it is most definitely fixable.
I’ll agree with bugs too. But then we have to look at Anet and wonder if they’ll ever notice it.
This is a concern of mine too. Almost a year ago I made a thread in the bug section about mini games being completely broken. I kept that thread bumped on the front page of the bug section for two weeks prior to a festival which features sanctum sprint and aspect arena. I don’t think it was ever read b/c once the festival came out and ofc the mini games were indeed broken the bug was then fixed within 2 hours. 2 weeks of advanced notice of the exact problem and it’s ramifications and nada.
Serenity now~Insanity later
I’ve noticed some very weird RNG on my account also. Here is my experience:
I almost exclusively do PvE (world bosses, loot grinding, jump puzzles, etc). I have probably spent over 1000 hours in PvE related things and have never had a precursor drop from bosses or regular enemies. I have had 4 different ascended weapon chests from Tequatl (3 Hordes and a Grizzlemouth’s).
Awhile back I finally decided to make the legendary rifle. I grinded and grinded cursed shore to raise money for all the stuff I would need (this was before Silverwastes). I eventually got bored and thought what the heck.. I will try the Mystic Forge. I want to point out that I NEVER use the forge for anything other than sigils and runes. I bought maybe 100 gold worth of exotic rifles and threw them in… got 2 The Hunter in less than 30 seconds.
Pic: http://i.imgur.com/SvQzayg.jpg
That wasn’t even my first Precursor from the forge. Way before that some guildies told me about buying cheap rares and throwing them in to try to get lucky. I remember I bought like 1 inventory worth of rares and threw them in with mystic forge stones and managed to get Leaf of Kudzu. Also, maybe a couple months after making my legendary, I asked my guild what precursor I should go for just for the hell of it. They said hammer so I bought like 80 gold worth of exotic hammers and threw them in and got that precursor!
So yeah I dunno… maybe I just have really really random luck with the forge. It started to even out though because I spent 300 gold on exotic daggers a month ago and got nothing from the forge so there is that. Still, I have definitely come out on top at the end. Just can’t figure out why I had that much luck with barely using the forge and practically none with as much PvE as I have done. I am lucky to even get exotics in PvE.
Anet gains nothing and loses much if they deliberately cheat players out of pixels that are ultimately worthless anyway.
I don’t think they care anyway with how bizarre the loot system is already.
Even leveling up it’s bad, but at 80 it’s like the gameplay is gathering recyclable cans to make your fortune.
Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.
On the contrary, when you are a business serving customers, a perceived problem is a real problem. It may not be a technical problem or a computing problem, but it is still real in the sense that something you are doing is making your customers vocally unhappy, and it is most definitely fixable.
Just to correct, a perceived problem IS a PR problem, not necessarily a REAL one. Does one guy in a trench coat standing on the corner with a sign constitute a perceived problem and is the REAL problem the one listed on the sign or why the guy in the trench coat got to the corner in the first place?
A few customers with an ACTUAL issue that can be duplicated is a problem that definitely needs addressing. A few customers that think there is a problem without an real proof or way to allow the problem to be duplicated is a “different” kind of problem that may not have an acceptable solution.
We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
(edited by Brother Grimm.5176)
well day 7 no luck will seeing people with portals soo i know my rng is bad still as always and it not joke
Yes, in my opinion there should be streak breakers, or other methods of negating the “low outlier” experience. That is however not because RNG is broken (since it isn’t), but because it is working right (which has some negative consequences).
This is the most interesting bit I’ve gotten out of any of these posts.
Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.
On the contrary, when you are a business serving customers, a perceived problem is a real problem. It may not be a technical problem or a computing problem, but it is still real in the sense that something you are doing is making your customers vocally unhappy, and it is most definitely fixable.
Just to correct, a perceived problem IS a PR problem, not necessarily a REAL one.
That’s exactly my point. In the business sense, it doesn’t matter whether the source of a customer’s dissatisfaction is “real” or “perceived,” you still have a dissatisfied customer, and telling them that they are just imagining things usually doesn’t make them any happier (even if it’s factually true).
To take an extreme example, it doesn’t matter whether Brand X apples actually contain poison, or if people just mistakenly think that they do, the result is the same. In that example, Brand X would be sunk pretty quickly if the executives responded by thinking, “We know for a fact that our apples are perfectly healthy, so there’s no reason to respond to those who wrongly think they aren’t.”
Its not a conspiracy.
NOTHING IS RANDOM IN COMPUTERS…. INCLUDING RNG…. thats not random. (FACT)
True but the current PRNG used pass numerous rigorous statistical tests to prove it is similar enough to a true RNG generator (that uses radioactive decay) to be indistinguishable.
No, it is not true. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator.
For a first read.
Apart from that the rest of this discussion is…. amusing.
“RNG is RNG”
The main issue here is a lack of understanding regarding the nature of programming.Yes, after working as a software engineer and architect dealing with RNG, cryptography and security for 25+ years, it MUST be a lack of understanding on my side rather than yours. Because it cannot potentially be true that you might be wrong, or?
Reading through this thread I start to understand why creationism is even a thing.
Let me quote you a section out of the link you provided.
PRNGs use a deterministic algorithm to produce numerical sequences. Although these pseudorandom sequences pass statistical pattern tests for randomness, by knowing the algorithm and the conditions used to initialize it, called the “seed”, the output can be predicted.
All that matters here is that the PRNG passes statistical pattern tests for randomness. Nothing more. We don’t care about predicting what’s next in the sequence based on what came before or that the same seed generates the same sequence. Which it does.
We are heroes. This is what we do!
RIP City of Heroes
RIP City of Heroes
Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.
On the contrary, when you are a business serving customers, a perceived problem is a real problem. It may not be a technical problem or a computing problem, but it is still real in the sense that something you are doing is making your customers vocally unhappy, and it is most definitely fixable.
Just to correct, a perceived problem IS a PR problem, not necessarily a REAL one.
That’s exactly my point. In the business sense, it doesn’t matter whether the source of a customer’s dissatisfaction is “real” or “perceived,” you still have a dissatisfied customer, and telling them that they are just imagining things usually doesn’t make them any happier (even if it’s factually true).
To take an extreme example, it doesn’t matter whether Brand X apples actually contain poison, or if people just mistakenly think that they do, the result is the same. In that example, Brand X would be sunk pretty quickly if the executives responded by thinking, “We know for a fact that our apples are perfectly healthy, so there’s no reason to respond to those who wrongly think they aren’t.”
So your saying that Anet should respond to the cries that RNG is broken, and that there are accounts who believe they are “flagged” to either get good loot, or not get good loot?
The problem is that they have. Several times. Repeatedly. But no one wants to listen. There have been many responses to the effect of “They are lying.” “They aren’t going to tell us if its broken.” "Anets version of “working as intended” means that they don’t care, and those accounts who are flagged is part of the design."
So what else are they supposed to do?
“You know what the chain of command is?
It’s the chain I beat you with until you
recognize my command!”
It’s the chain I beat you with until you
recognize my command!”
Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.
On the contrary, when you are a business serving customers, a perceived problem is a real problem. It may not be a technical problem or a computing problem, but it is still real in the sense that something you are doing is making your customers vocally unhappy, and it is most definitely fixable.
Just to correct, a perceived problem IS a PR problem, not necessarily a REAL one.
That’s exactly my point. In the business sense, it doesn’t matter whether the source of a customer’s dissatisfaction is “real” or “perceived,” you still have a dissatisfied customer, and telling them that they are just imagining things usually doesn’t make them any happier (even if it’s factually true).
To take an extreme example, it doesn’t matter whether Brand X apples actually contain poison, or if people just mistakenly think that they do, the result is the same. In that example, Brand X would be sunk pretty quickly if the executives responded by thinking, “We know for a fact that our apples are perfectly healthy, so there’s no reason to respond to those who wrongly think they aren’t.”
So your saying that Anet should respond to the cries that RNG is broken, and that there are accounts who believe they are “flagged” to either get good loot, or not get good loot?
The problem is that they have. Several times. Repeatedly. But no one wants to listen. There have been many responses to the effect of “They are lying.” “They aren’t going to tell us if its broken.” "Anets version of “working as intended” means that they don’t care, and those accounts who are flagged is part of the design."
So what else are they supposed to do?
I think the reason the responses given so far haven’t been effective is the same reason a Brand X CEO from my earlier example saying, “Our apples are not poisonous” would not be effective. The customers are already looking at you from a position of mistrust, and you haven’t given them any additional reason to trust what you’re saying.
How do you win back trust? You have to publicly take the initiative, reach out to dissatisfied customers, and say, “we want to earn your trust, and we’re going to do something about it, not just talk.” You could even make it fun! For example, they could invite everyone to participate in a (voluntary) “Help Test Our Loot System” event, with all the data gathered during that event made public and also have some entertaining leaderboards for players, like “Most cotton salvaged” or “Most trash received” during the event. It wouldn’t even be that hard to tie in with some lore, and even the people who have no problem with the loot system could have some fun and feel like their play was helping to test an important game system.
RNG is RNG:To the purveyors of the RNG is RNG group, let us not be so quick to forget that Final Rest was ‘working as intended’ of over a year! Nor can we just dismiss the possibility that there is indeed a hidden problem just because the proposed cause seems unlikely.
FYI, that wasnt an RNG problem. That was a problem with the item’s specific drop rate (which is loosely tied to RNG only when rolling for the item). Issue with item droprate =/= issue with RNG.
As I said in an earlier post. But let me simplify it hear.
You have 100 players.
There is a 1 in 100 chance of X dropping as loot.
Everyone gets 229 loot drops from the same source.
The distribution of X is:
10 get 0
23 get 1
27 get 2
20 get 3
12 get 4
5 get 5
2 get 6
1 get 7
To the 10 that got 0 and seeing some players got 5-7, it’s only natural to think the fix is in or something is broken but that’s the mathematical distribution. We have 10 unlucky players and 7 lucky ones. Nothing is broken here. The fix isn’t in. It’s just math and the nature of probability.
We are heroes. This is what we do!
RIP City of Heroes
RIP City of Heroes
Just to correct, a perceived problem IS a PR problem, not necessarily a REAL one.
That’s exactly my point. In the business sense, it doesn’t matter whether the source of a customer’s dissatisfaction is “real” or “perceived,” you still have a dissatisfied customer, and telling them that they are just imagining things usually doesn’t make them any happier (even if it’s factually true).
Oh, but it does have a significant difference. If the problem is real, you can fix it, but if it’s only perceived, no amount of fixing will do, because there’s nothing to fix in the first place.
To take an extreme example, it doesn’t matter whether Brand X apples actually contain poison, or if people just mistakenly think that they do, the result is the same.
Again, it does matter – if the apples really contain poison, then you can act to remove it and announce it. If they don’t contain it, this won’t work. And if there were people thinking the poison was real, even when nothing actually suggested it, and didn’t believe any assertions that it wasn’t true, then no amount of proof would make them stop believing (because you cannot use reason to combat irrationality). And addressing those irrational fears beyond the very basic announcement that they are not true would not be a smart move, as it would only seem to give them validity.
Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Remember, remember, 15th of November
Anets response is more than most developers would give. They act like they dont care, probably because they dont.
You can go to any forum of any MMO with an RNG based system and find the exact same conspiracy theories, the same anger-fueled topics, the same debunk offerings, the same people who lay down how the coding works, the same people who start the same topics as this one.
Developers will not, very understandably, give out the specific details on how their RNG system works. You can either live with it or leave it.
Here are the problems with RNG in general and with this game specifically:
1. “RNG is RNG”… this is a meaningless statement. It is invoked in nearly every thread on these forums but it has no meaning. It is just as valid to say “God did it” or “just because”. “RNG is RNG” covers every possible outcome in existence. There is no counterargument because the first argument was a catchall statement. If you ever find yourself typing “rng is rng” rethink what you are typing.
2. RNG is working as intended… another meaningless statement, and even if it is true, maybe the problem is what is intended.
3. Pure randomness: Maybe the fact that the system lets one player get no precursor in 8000hrs and another player get 13 in 1000hrs IS the problem. Sure in a purely random system this is allowed… but why do we have a purely random system? What’s so great about purely random? Why is that the status quo? Wouldn’t a semi-random system which broke both bad and good streaks be better? everyone would get lucky sometimes but no one would be super rich from drops or super poor from lack of drops.
Expanding on the last point, streak breakers are good for both players and Anet’s profits. A new player who loots 4 precursors in a row is unlikely to keep playing the game. They instantly got enough money to buy everything they could possibly want and they will quickly get bored and leave., never spending any money. A player with terrible luck will eventually burn out and stop buying gems and eventually stop playing all together. Getting no loot is no fun. By having a system that mitigates these extremes you keep players more balanced, more likely to have goals to work for and actual make progress towards, which keeps them in the game spending money.
ZudetGambeous, the arguements you’re making are only tangentially relevant here. Others in this thread are not merely claiming that the current loot distribution mechanics are not optimal for increasing player fun and enjoyment. They are specifically claiming that there are mechanics in the game code that specifically reward some players consistently and consistently fail to reward other players. They believe that their accounts are cursed to have lower drop rates than other players. Some think that the system is merely accidentally broken, but other’s have put on tinfoil hats and believe that ANet has done this intentionally.
I can agree that having some kind of streak-breaking pseudo-random algorithm for loot drops would be more amicable. But that is not the discussion at hand and probably belongs in its own thread so we do not drown in tinfoil.
Here are the problems with RNG in general and with this game specifically:
1. “RNG is RNG”… this is a meaningless statement. It is invoked in nearly every thread on these forums but it has no meaning. It is just as valid to say “God did it” or “just because”. “RNG is RNG” covers every possible outcome in existence. There is no counterargument because the first argument was a catchall statement. If you ever find yourself typing “rng is rng” rethink what you are typing.
2. RNG is working as intended… another meaningless statement, and even if it is true, maybe the problem is what is intended.
3. Pure randomness: Maybe the fact that the system lets one player get no precursor in 8000hrs and another player get 13 in 1000hrs IS the problem. Sure in a purely random system this is allowed… but why do we have a purely random system? What’s so great about purely random? Why is that the status quo? Wouldn’t a semi-random system which broke both bad and good streaks be better? everyone would get lucky sometimes but no one would be super rich from drops or super poor from lack of drops.
Expanding on the last point, streak breakers are good for both players and Anet’s profits. A new player who loots 4 precursors in a row is unlikely to keep playing the game. They instantly got enough money to buy everything they could possibly want and they will quickly get bored and leave., never spending any money. A player with terrible luck will eventually burn out and stop buying gems and eventually stop playing all together. Getting no loot is no fun. By having a system that mitigates these extremes you keep players more balanced, more likely to have goals to work for and actual make progress towards, which keeps them in the game spending money.
1. No it’s not meaningless statement. It’s shorthand for not inserting a talk about binomial distribution of n-independent trials. I gave an example a few posts up that demonstrates that. Even with a relatively modest definition of rare, 1%, I showed that statistically after 229 drops that 10 players should end up with nothing while 3 players should end up with a total of 19 of them. The conspiracy is nothing more than a person not versed in prob & stats using these expected results as evidence that something is very wrong.
2. It’s a valid statement assuming that;
3. ANet decided on RNG as the means to giver every player, doing every type of activity and equal chance to get the most desirable class of reward. Each check of the loot table is the same for each and every player. From the individual player’s PoV it’s all on the up and up, everyone gets to spin the wheel with Drew. And from the macro scale the correct number of items are distributed relative to total number of spins. The problem as I pointed out in (1) is that probability theory shows the distribution of rewards using this method are skewed. Even after 1000 drop spins 7 will only get at 3 to 5 but 8 lucky players will get 15 to 19.
So while each player as the same chance, and you can’t stay that isn’t the definition of fair. The total number of items rewarded jives with the frequency selected and number of attempts so that’s copacetic. The problem is that of actual distribution across the playerbase even though RNG is fair and the number of items rewarded align with expectations.
The objection is calling it a conspiracy as oppose to a side effect. A dreadful side effect if you are on the left side of the curve. And unless they crunched the numbers even devs may have underestimated the how bad it would be and not have the foresight for needing a streak breaker. That’s why we had a sticky on RNG fixes until recently.
We are heroes. This is what we do!
RIP City of Heroes
RIP City of Heroes
I believe streak-breakers were discussed at length in the RNG discussion thread started by John Smith. https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/first
There has been no movement on this issue from ANet. This could mean they don’t plan to do anything, or that they do plan to, but won’t tell us anything until it’s mostly ready. How would we know?
One of the reasons I tend to view this game with a healthy dose of cynicism is the Gag Order.
I believe streak-breakers were discussed at length in the RNG discussion thread started by John Smith. https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/first
There has been no movement on this issue from ANet. This could mean they don’t plan to do anything, or that they do plan to, but won’t tell us anything until it’s mostly ready. How would we know?
One of the reasons I tend to view this game with a healthy dose of cynicism is the Gag Order.
I hear they are working on an expansion. Radical changes to how loot is distributed would probably be implemented with the expansion, or put off until after it is released. In either case they probably won’t announce it ahead of time because it would disrupt players doing things now if they knew they could wait a few months and get a guarantee of better loot.
I hear they are working on an expansion. Radical changes to how loot is distributed would probably be implemented with the expansion, or put off until after it is released. In either case they probably won’t announce it ahead of time because it would disrupt players doing things now if they knew they could wait a few months and get a guarantee of better loot.
Fair points. On the other hand, I don’t think they’re going to do anything. After all, they’re “fixing” the precursor issue with masteries, and there’s very little else in the game that’s worth much of anything.
I hear they are working on an expansion. Radical changes to how loot is distributed would probably be implemented with the expansion, or put off until after it is released. In either case they probably won’t announce it ahead of time because it would disrupt players doing things now if they knew they could wait a few months and get a guarantee of better loot.
Fair points. On the other hand, I don’t think they’re going to do anything. After all, they’re “fixing” the precursor issue with masteries, and there’s very little else in the game that’s worth much of anything.
Yep. When people complain about not getting good loot, they almost always mean “I haven’t gotten the precursor I want yet.” Or more recently, “I haven’t gotten access to the beta yet.”
Closed beta means closed, not everyone, most or even some will get/got an invite. But it doesn’t mean someone didn’t get 12.
We are heroes. This is what we do!
RIP City of Heroes
RIP City of Heroes