Three Precursors (Spark) in < 3 weeks

Three Precursors (Spark) in < 3 weeks

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Posted by: Darkyre.7324

Darkyre.7324

So a friend of mine recieved three Sparks from the MF in a span of less than 3 weeks? Been on this game since 2013 and never gotten a pre from bags or forge. As much as I am happy for him, I get really frustrated everytime a new Spark gets linked on my chat.

Is this purely RNG loving him and hating me or is there something hes doing right? As far as i know hes been throwign in random rares obtained from SW and has a magic find of 85%.

(yes im jelly)

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Posted by: Zalladi.4652

Zalladi.4652

Is this purely RNG loving him and hating me

It is.

Also, don’t believe everything you hear, it is quite likely your friend only received one Spark and linked it three times throughout those weeks to spite you and make you feel worse for wear. One possibility, unless he showed you a screenshot of three separate Sparks.

(edited by Zalladi.4652)

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Posted by: penelopehannibal.8947

penelopehannibal.8947

A screenshot wouldn’t prove anything anyway, since there’s the wardrobe system, and the fact you can only mouse over one weapon at a time for the tooltip.

Blood & Merlot [Wine]

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Posted by: Danikat.8537

Danikat.8537

How many rares has your friend thrown into the forge in those 3 weeks? How many do you typically throw in during the same period?

It is random, it’s entirely possible for someone to get a precursor on their very first attempt and hypothetically possible (although impossible to prove) for another person to never, ever get a precursor no matter how much they try.

But the chance is the same for everyone (as far as I know the Forge isn’t affected by magic find) so generally when someone reports a much higher than average rate of return it’s either a random spike (meaning he got lucky, but could throw the same number of rares in next week and lose money) or it’s because they made significantly more attempts.

Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).

“Life’s a journey, not a destination.”

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Posted by: Vesuvius.9874

Vesuvius.9874

Pics or it didn’t happen.

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Posted by: Tarak.4759

Tarak.4759

I’ve seen two people get Spark from the Tequatl event in the last month or so (or they claimed that they did anyway.)

(edited by Tarak.4759)

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Posted by: Taxidriver.2043

Taxidriver.2043

Three Precursors (Spark) in < 3 weeks

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Posted by: Aberrant.6749

Aberrant.6749

So a friend of mine recieved three Sparks from the MF in a span of less than 3 weeks? Been on this game since 2013 and never gotten a pre from bags or forge. As much as I am happy for him, I get really frustrated everytime a new Spark gets linked on my chat.

Is this purely RNG loving him and hating me or is there something hes doing right? As far as i know hes been throwign in random rares obtained from SW and has a magic find of 85%.

(yes im jelly)

MF doesn’t effect the forge. Most of the rares obtained from SW are from the rare gear bags, pac man, and lost bandit chests (the only one that is effected by MF). It’s pretty uncommon to get rares off of the mobs there unless you’re off somewhere killing the hyenas or something and even then it’s not common for me to get rares off of those with 300%+ base MF… I mostly just get t5/t6 off of them, but that’s still worth it to me while doing a chest train.

Tarnished Coast
Salvage 4 Profit + MF Guide – http://tinyurl.com/l8ff6pa

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Posted by: MACHI.3548

MACHI.3548

i do a lot of farming the forge using only exos and i get quite a few pre’s though there are weeks where i get nothing but usually i get around 5-9 a week

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Posted by: Crossaber.8934

Crossaber.8934

Picture won’t do the proof as it is easy to PS images. The only way to proof is to ask him mail you 3 sparks….

Well for sure he won’t do it so what about just forget it and move on. The are too many luckier man than us in game or in RL, but don’t forget there are more unlucky ones than us.

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Posted by: Mutilate.2796

Mutilate.2796

you can always report him

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

The people who do industrial amounts of forging get 3 sparks in less than 3 weeks. It just doesn’t happen often. It’s sort of a meaningless metric unless we have all the details:

  • Did he forge rares or exotics? Did he forge daggers or a mix?
  • How many did he throw in?

At the extremes, compare throwing in 12 miscellaneous rares versus 12,000 exotic daggers. In the first case, he’d be suspiciously lucky and in the second he’d be suspiciously unlucky.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Faux.1937

Faux.1937

1) Ive seen 9 drop within 1 hour
2) How much gold did he spend? (I know ppl that get them weekly, but they spend 1k+ gold weekly in it too)
3) He could be making it up

SAB or RIOT

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Posted by: Majic.4801

Majic.4801

A chat link does not a precursor prove, much less three.

Absent stronger proof which is probably not forthcoming, I suspect YHBT.

“Not the same, real and true. True you feel inside.
Always follow what is true.” — Sentry-skritt Bordekka

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Posted by: Maunzi.3764

Maunzi.3764

Someone else went to Vegas, like me, and won big 3 times at a slot machine!
I never won once in the same time.

Is this purely RNG loving him and hating me or is there something hes doing right? As far as i know hes been throwign in random coins obtained from his job and has a thetan level of 4.

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Posted by: Sylum.1806

Sylum.1806

So a friend of mine recieved three Sparks from the MF in a span of less than 3 weeks? Been on this game since 2013 and never gotten a pre from bags or forge. As much as I am happy for him, I get really frustrated everytime a new Spark gets linked on my chat.

Is this purely RNG loving him and hating me or is there something hes doing right? As far as i know hes been throwign in random rares obtained from SW and has a magic find of 85%.

(yes im jelly)

You can throw in 10,000 Exotics into the Mystic Forge in 3 days, and you can throw in 4 Exotics in 3 years.

Just stating length of time without actual volume of use doesn’t indicate anything.

Do a little reading on statistics and come back with a more compelling argument.

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Posted by: Darkyre.7324

Darkyre.7324

I got him into the game after I came back from a brief hiatus. If I were to put a number to his attempts, that would be 25+ random rares in the forge per day? Would be very immature for an adult to be lying. Guess those were just his lucky days.

Do a little reading on statistics and come back with a more compelling argument.

I wasn’t making an “argument”. I am fully aware of the statistics, and looking around for any other possible explanations.

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Posted by: Sylum.1806

Sylum.1806

I got him into the game after I came back from a brief hiatus. If I were to put a number to his attempts, that would be 25+ random rares in the forge per day? Would be very immature for an adult to be lying. Guess those were just his lucky days.

Do a little reading on statistics and come back with a more compelling argument.

I wasn’t making an “argument”. I am fully aware of the statistics, and looking around for any other possible explanations.

Which means you don’t actually know how many he did use. Also, no one in this thread knows how actively you’ve used Mystic Forge since 2013. Without all these variables, nobody can offer you any concrete explanation. I know it can be frustrating to see others get loot that you’d want with what seems to be considerably less effort, but attempting to look for possible explanations without all the salient info is just groping in the dark.

If you’re looking for comfort and commiserations, there’s plenty to go around. I’ve played since launch and not gotten a single precursor anywhere. But I’ve also gotten lots of ascended chests from Tequatl and Triple Trouble, even from sPvP, champ bags, Golem Mark II and Shatterer grand chests while a guild leader I know got 0 Tequatl’s Hoard in over a year of farming Teq.

RNG is very difficult to figure out as a player even if you have the hard figures to your own game history and a few others. Trust me, I know because I head the regional office for customer support of an MMO developer/publisher. We answer endless complaints from disgruntled players daily about their poor RNG results and it’s a challenge to get them to understand statistics and RNG without disclosing the actual odds (which we’re not at liberty to do).

I wasn’t trying to be snide earlier, but the info you offered initially and even now cannot help you get the answers you want.

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Posted by: feelingood.2106

feelingood.2106

For me, its 2 precursors in 2 weeks..Just pure luck. Last week i got one precursors worth 400g (cant remember the name) and this week i got Zap.. Totally 3 precursors for MF and one from drop in 3 years.

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Posted by: borgs.6103

borgs.6103

Around 14~ hours ago, I was bored so I decided to buy 4 exotic daggers with my dungeon tokens. I put them in the MF, said a little prayer to RNGesus, and Spark came out.

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Posted by: Darkyre.7324

Darkyre.7324

I wasn’t trying to be snide earlier, but the info you offered initially and even now cannot help you get the answers you want.

Apologies if I misread the tone of your post.

I think I should clarify my intentions too. I am aware of the RNG statistics with the Mystic Forge, I know it can be very brutal with people tossing in hundreds of exotics with measly returns. With that knowledge in mind, I have never seriously done any mystic forge farming due to those chances. Since late 2013 I’ve been tossing any surplus of rares into the forge each weekend.

Me: 30-40 rares every weekend, taking into account my hiatus from June-Dec 2014
Friend: Started Forging in May 2015 with say 25+ misc. rares per day into forge to this date

Because my friend claimed to have gotten 3 pres in a short amount of time. I wanted to see if anyone knew whether he met any conditions to allow a higher chance on pres.

Judging from all the kind replies (thanks all) looks like he just got lucky?

(edited by Darkyre.7324)

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Posted by: Sylum.1806

Sylum.1806

I wasn’t trying to be snide earlier, but the info you offered initially and even now cannot help you get the answers you want.

Apologies if I misread the tone of your post.

I think I should clarify my intentions too. I am aware of the RNG statistics with the Mystic Forge, I know it can be very brutal with people tossing in hundreds of exotics with measly returns. With that knowledge in mind, I have never seriously done any mystic forge farming due to those chances. Since late 2013 I’ve been tossing any surplus of rares into the forge each weekend.

Me: 30-40 rares every weekend, taking into account my hiatus from June-Dec 2014
Friend: Started Forging in May 2015 with say 25+ misc. rares per day into forge to this date

Because my friend claimed to have gotten 3 pres in a short amount of time. I wanted to see if anyone knew whether he met any conditions to allow a higher chance on pres.

Judging from all the kind replies (thanks all) looks like he just got lucky?

Or he could just be exaggerating. Memory can be such an unreliable thing. Without the actual odds which only the developers have, it’s hard to tell if there’s a discrepancy between accounts.

Since you understand basic statistics, I won’t need to explain how the existence of the exception (the small portion of the user base on extreme ends of the RNG spectrum experiencing “better than average” luck and “poorer than average” luck) proves the rule rather than invalidate it.

Assuming you started playing in Jan 2013, that’ll be a total of 31 months now. Minus the 6 you were on hiatus, that’s 25. That’s 100 weeks. 40 rares per weekend would be 1000 uses of the Mystic Forge since you started playing GW2.

Your friend uses the Mystic Forge about 6 times a day, over 2 months, that’s about 360 uses in total.

Means he got 1 Precursor for every 120 uses on average. I don’t think anybody, without access to more data can honestly say if the range of getting 1 precursor per 120 – 1000+ uses, is as intended or not.

More research is needed.