Guild Wars 2

Hi, this is a direct question for anet. I really would like to know why certain players have got upto 7 beta portals drop for them.

Only one is needed per account and I read growing concern that these players may have been decided before the portals were introduced.

Myself and many others would like an explanation as to why this happens. Was it unintentional to reward the same players with multiple drops of an item they can only use once?

Or was it, as suggested by some, intentional. Because those players had already been chosen to receive the portal item, would be the only ones to get any portal drop for them. Be it one or seven of them.

I’m not interested in “rng this or rng that” as this is beyond RNG.

So please Anet, clear this up for us :-)

Thank you

Lego.

Why does it matter?
The number of portal that drops is completely irrelevant. They are just a “physical” item in the game. What matters is the number of accounts flagged for beta access. Someone getting multiple portals doesn’t “steal” slots.

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

I’m not interested in “rng this or rng that” as this is beyond RNG.

But it’s not.

All the guild wars players are sitting around a table, taking turns rolling a 10,000-sided dice. If they roll a “1”, they can take part in the beta. But the “1” is not removed from the dice.

It’s not the dice’s fault that players who have rolled “1” already keep rolling. If enough people roll the dice, it is statistically likely that some of them will roll another “1” at some point. And so forth.

If you’re asking why ANet didn’t go to additional lengths to prevent a second item to drop when an already qualified person rolls another “1”, I have no answer for you, other than “why would they?” – In terms of outcome, it makes no difference either way.

<Not actual numbers from the game.>

I’m not saying they steal slots, although on what evidence you base that on I’m unsure.

Maybe it should have been set up so if you got a portal, you wouldn’t receive more than the one you needed.

I personally think it’s totally relevant, is iffy at best and downright dodgy at worst.

To admit it’s just the norm and accept that reasoning, is bemusing to me.

It takes more work and requires more Q&A to test a removal of the chance to get the drop. Obsessing over it is ridiculous.

If you still have not gotten a portal make sure you are signed up for the newsletter. People that are signed up and didn’t get a portal still have a shot:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/hot/About-the-Portal-to-Maguuma-s-Heart

Anyone who finds a Portal to Maguuma’s Heart will have access. A certain number of testers will be selected from the newsletter subscriber list.

Gaile Gray:

‘Random is random. Some amount of duplication seems part of the randomness of the drops.’

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/hot/About-the-Portal-to-Maguuma-s-Heart/first#post5040104

There is your direct answer from ArenaNet.

Good luck.

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

Only one is needed per account and I read growing concern that these players may have been decided before the portals were introduced.

Don’t believe every rumour you hear. And the “growing concerns” is just a single person on this forum, from what i saw so far. Well, you would make a second one.

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

Maybe it should have been set up so if you got a portal, you wouldn’t receive more than the one you needed.

Why? What would that change? It’s not like it would improve the drop rates for others after all… And it wouldn’t be trivial to code. In other words, a lot of work for no gain.

I got one within seconds of escorting the pact bull to red rock. Honestly, is it that big if a deal that people have more than one? I much rather have had a pre drop… something I’ve never had with thousands of hours into the game.

Yeah, instead of wondering or envying people with multiple drops you instead should take pity on them. The extra portal drop does absolutely nothing (except maybe braging rights) but instead could have been some thing valuable or a precursor.

As it stands now duplicate portal drops are actually a good thing for everyone not in the beta yet. Why? Because that portal drop could have gone to someone without a beta spot yet that is not you! This way, even though you did not get a portal (and thus beta spot) neither did some one else.

Once enough beta slot have been filled up, they will close/end the system.

So here’s my hint, every time you seen someone with 2,3 or 5 portals just think:“Cool, this guys portals could have cost me x amount of still open beta spots”.

Cyninja.2954:

Yeah, instead of wondering or envying people with multiple drops you instead should take pity on them. The extra portal drop does absolutely nothing (except maybe braging rights) but instead could have been some thing valuable or a precursor.

As it stands now duplicate portal drops are actually a good thing for everyone not in the beta yet. Why? Because that portal drop could have gone to someone without a beta spot yet that is not you! This way, even though you did not get a portal (and thus beta spot) neither did some one else.

Once enough beta slot have been filled up, they will close/end the system.

So here’s my hint, every time you seen someone with 2,3 or 5 portals just think:“Cool, this guys portals could have cost me x amount of still open beta spots”.

And yet he might not even have a single one, wouldn’t be surprised if majority of public linked portals are just chat codes copied from websites

Pixelpumpkin.4608:

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

I’m not interested in “rng this or rng that” as this is beyond RNG.

But it’s not.

All the guild wars players are sitting around a table, taking turns rolling a 10,000-sided dice. If they roll a “1”, they can take part in the beta. But the “1” is not removed from the dice.

It’s not the dice’s fault that players who have rolled “1” already keep rolling. If enough people roll the dice, it is statistically likely that some of them will roll another “1” at some point. And so forth.

If you’re asking why ANet didn’t go to additional lengths to prevent a second item to drop when an already qualified person rolls another “1”, I have no answer for you, other than “why would they?” – In terms of outcome, it makes no difference either way.

<Not actual numbers from the game.>

Aren’t schools teaching a bit of statistics during math? Gosh is so elemental it amazes me everytime when someone has such questions.
+1 for the very good reply.

So all the guild wars playing take turns rolling a 10,000 sided dice. If they get a 1 then the player gets into beta. The number 1 is not removed from dice.

A very good point. But bear in mind the problem with you statement:

The number 1 is not removed from the dice, this is how it should be. But note that the guild wars players who roll a 1 on that 10,000 dice are not removed from the pool of players trying to roll a 1.

And so does this also mean that some guild wars players are getting more rolls of the dice than others?

I think it’s a fair question.

Why do people insist on asking questions when they rule out the most plausible answer.

I love when someone comes in and asks, “Why is RNG RNG, and don’t tell me it’s because it’s RNG.” It’s so meaningful and productive.

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

So all the guild wars playing take turns rolling a 10,000 sided dice. If they get a 1 then the player gets into beta. The number 1 is not removed from dice.

A very good point. But bear in mind the problem with you statement:

The number 1 is not removed from the dice, this is how it should be. But note that the guild wars players who roll a 1 on that 10,000 dice are not removed from the pool of players trying to roll a 1.

And so does this also mean that some guild wars players are getting more rolls of the dice than others?

I think it’s a fair question.

what does that have to do with anything? Once they land on 1, whatever they roll if they decide to keep rolling is irrelevant. It has no bearing on anyone.

Except, of course, people who are irritated by the fact that someone is getting multiple copies of an item they want while they have not gotten one yet, but that’s a completely personal problem.

They’re Lucky accounts; and not talking about MF.

I still haven’t gotten a portal drop, which kittenes me off but I’m not gonna lose any sleep over it. It’s just a frikkin beta and judging by the previous beta it’s probably just going to be a very small insignificant portion of HoT that’s gonna be playable. It’s really not worth the trouble or stress that some people are going through to get a portal drop.

LucosTheDutch.4819:

I still haven’t gotten a portal drop, which kittenes me off but I’m not gonna lose any sleep over it. It’s just a frikkin beta and judging by the previous beta it’s probably just going to be a very small insignificant portion of HoT that’s gonna be playable. It’s really not worth the trouble or stress that some people are going through to get a portal drop.

+1.

done looking, gonna do something more productive.

So are the portals still dropping I thought after the Tuesday patch it was done?

Yes, they are. As noted in this thread: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/hot/About-the-Portal-to-Maguuma-s-Heart/first#post5040104

‘No it did not end yesterday. There were some rumours that the build ended it, but forum posts prove that the portals are still dropping, and that is as intended’.

I believe a Gaile Gray stated in a thread that beta testers will be the players who got drops and the newsletter. I imagine a lot of players have given up on getting one which is why they decided to also go with the newsletter.

Gaile Gray.6029:

Anyone who finds a Portal to Maguuma’s Heart will have access. A certain number of testers will be selected from the newsletter subscriber list. So as you can see, being a newsletter subscriber has a dual benefit: You increase your chances of getting into the beta test, and you receive direct communication about the test and its schedule.

I found the post and added it for those that need proof.

I suggest you go read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

It’s sickening me how many people complain about the fact that a lottery turned out to be a lottery. If you go buy a physical lottery ticket, do you spit out bile each time you do not win? You chose to try this COMPLETELY optional activity, don’t get too emotional over this.

It’s totally reasonable that 2 portals drop for 1 person (it would be statistically improbable if noone got any duplicate worldwide). Also, it’s totally unreasonable to expect ArenaNet to limit portals to one per account, and for at least one reason: it’s simplier to leave it like that, rather than employ additional limitations which their framework might not even be flexible enough to support. Get reasonable.

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

So all the guild wars playing take turns rolling a 10,000 sided dice. If they get a 1 then the player gets into beta. The number 1 is not removed from dice.

A very good point. But bear in mind the problem with you statement:

The number 1 is not removed from the dice, this is how it should be. But note that the guild wars players who roll a 1 on that 10,000 dice are not removed from the pool of players trying to roll a 1.

And so does this also mean that some guild wars players are getting more rolls of the dice than others?

I think it’s a fair question.

Of course some players get more rolls than others. We get a single roll of the loot dice every time we successfully finish and event and everyt time we kill a mob (that drops loot). Players who finish more events and kill more mobs get more rolls.

And removing the player from the loot pool? Like “if account already qualified, skip loot roll, otherwise do loot roll”? The other option would be to ask the same question after the “1” has already been rolled, but I don’t see what difference you think that makes…

Leto Atreides II.2153:

I suggest you go read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

It’s sickening me how many people complain about the fact that a lottery turned out to be a lottery. If you go buy a physical lottery ticket, do you spit out bile each time you do not win? You chose to try this COMPLETELY optional activity, don’t get too emotional over this.

It’s totally reasonable that 2 portals drop for 1 person (it would be statistically improbable if noone got any duplicate worldwide). Also, it’s totally unreasonable to expect ArenaNet to limit portals to one per account, and for at least one reason: it’s simplier to leave it like that, rather than employ additional limitations which their framework might not even be flexible enough to support. Get reasonable.

I think what kittenes people off isn’t the fact that this is a lottery (because it actually really isn’t), but that it’s a lottery that requires grinding.

I didn’t mind how Anet chose to select their stress testers during the first closed-Beta round because I didn’t have to do anything for it and whether I got selected or not was completely out of my control.

However, right now, you are required to grind your kitten off to get Beta access, and even when you do grind your kitten off it’s not guaranteed that you’ll get a Beta portal. I personally spend my fair share in SW this week and didn’t get jack. It wasn’t worth my time at all, so I simply gave up on it.

Having a lottery is one thing. Having a lottery where you have to grind in order to have a chance to win the price is not something I’m willing to commit myself to. I absolutely loathe how GW2’s RNG works and how you have to grind to extreme lengths in order to get anything of value. It’s one thing to grind for a legendary weapon, but for a temporary Beta access? No thank you.

That’s why I’m okay with a real lottery (handing out Beta access to players who subscribed to the newsletter) but I’m not okay with this current “lottery”.

HenleyLegoMan.4987:

I’m not interested in “rng this or rng that” as this is beyond RNG.

So please Anet, clear this up for us :-)

The only response Anet is going to give you, is the one you are not interested in. So I guess we can go ahead and close this thread?

If you see people pinging multiple portal drops, maybe ask them something about what they’re doing in game. They might be doing something different than you that puts the “RNG” in a favorable position more often.

I did get a portal drop, which I am pretty happy about. And my time in SW was pretty minimal.
However, I know some of my guildies spent a long time trying to farm the portal without ever getting a portal as a drop.
I never went back to SW after I got the drop, I did not see the need.
My guildies already think (rightly or wrongly… depends on perspective) I have a wee bit more luck than the average player. I can only imagine what they might say/think if I got a second one.
I did not want to stir the pot by attempting to get a second portal.
Besides, I really don’t like DT or SW, I was happy not to need to go back there.

LucosTheDutch.4819:

Leto Atreides II.2153:

I suggest you go read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

It’s sickening me how many people complain about the fact that a lottery turned out to be a lottery. If you go buy a physical lottery ticket, do you spit out bile each time you do not win? You chose to try this COMPLETELY optional activity, don’t get too emotional over this.

It’s totally reasonable that 2 portals drop for 1 person (it would be statistically improbable if noone got any duplicate worldwide). Also, it’s totally unreasonable to expect ArenaNet to limit portals to one per account, and for at least one reason: it’s simplier to leave it like that, rather than employ additional limitations which their framework might not even be flexible enough to support. Get reasonable.

I think what kittenes people off isn’t the fact that this is a lottery (because it actually really isn’t), but that it’s a lottery that requires grinding.

I didn’t mind how Anet chose to select their stress testers during the first closed-Beta round because I didn’t have to do anything for it and whether I got selected or not was completely out of my control.

However, right now, you are required to grind your kitten off to get Beta access, and even when you do grind your kitten off it’s not guaranteed that you’ll get a Beta portal. I personally spend my fair share in SW this week and didn’t get jack. It wasn’t worth my time at all, so I simply gave up on it.

Having a lottery is one thing. Having a lottery where you have to grind in order to have a chance to win the price is not something I’m willing to commit myself to. I absolutely loathe how GW2’s RNG works and how you have to grind to extreme lengths in order to get anything of value. It’s one thing to grind for a legendary weapon, but for a temporary Beta access? No thank you.

That’s why I’m okay with a real lottery (handing out Beta access to players who subscribed to the newsletter) but I’m not okay with this current “lottery”.

In an actual lottery, the more lottery slips you buy the higher your (still tiny) chances to win. So this is exactly like a lottery. I saw a guy on TV once who sold his car and his house and the entire extended family pitched in. He thought if they bought a thousand lottery tickets, they would win big for sure. Lost everything, was heartbroken. He sure ground his day job for a very, very long time before and after that.

Pixelpumpkin.4608:

In an actual lottery, the more lottery slips you buy the higher your (still tiny) chances to win. So this is exactly like a lottery.

Bingo. In an actual lottery you buy additional chances via money, here you buy them via time spent farming.

Because I could always use more silver.

because Anet’s system is flawed and is living proof that 100% random loot rates is a horrible system

Leto Atreides II.2153:

Pixelpumpkin.4608:

In an actual lottery, the more lottery slips you buy the higher your (still tiny) chances to win. So this is exactly like a lottery.

Bingo. In an actual lottery you buy additional chances via money, here you buy them via time spent farming.

I do agree with what you’re saying. It’s just that in a real lottery, you’re buying lottery slips for a chance to win. With the beta item, if you get it, you’ve already won. Unless you mean that each event you do and enemy you kill is you ‘buying’ another lottery slip with your time and effort for a chance to get the drop?

There is no way that Anet sat down and deliberately selected players to receive the portals. Way to much time involved in doing such things for it to be anything other than random selection.

And it’s not like there’s a limited pool of portal drop, say 100, where getting duplicates would ruin chances for everyone else.

Considering the number of people who said got multiple drops by playing next to nothing, and the number of people saying they’ve have played for days and getting nothing, it would make sense to think that a certain number of accounts have been pre-tagged, and those portals won’t drop to accounts not marked to get one.

Whether that’s true or not it’s a difference thing. The aftertaste this is leaving to those who want it the most and spent lots of time without getting it will be there for a long time, affect negatively their experience with the game. Like a splinter in their mind.

Tom.8029:

Leto Atreides II.2153:

Pixelpumpkin.4608:

In an actual lottery, the more lottery slips you buy the higher your (still tiny) chances to win. So this is exactly like a lottery.

Bingo. In an actual lottery you buy additional chances via money, here you buy them via time spent farming.

I do agree with what you’re saying. It’s just that in a real lottery, you’re buying lottery slips for a chance to win. With the beta item, if you get it, you’ve already won. Unless you mean that each event you do and enemy you kill is you ‘buying’ another lottery slip with your time and effort for a chance to get the drop?

Yes.

Really annoying how people are trying to make out like everyone has a fair chance at a beta key.
About 7-8 people in my guild have dropped beta keys. Most of them have more than 1 key, one guy has 4. Most of them have already dropped one or multiple precursors in the past. Myself and others in the guild have spent double, triple or even quadruple the time as them farming and dropped nothing. Most of them were not signed up to the newsletter beforehand and they still got drops.
Some people say they are on lucky accounts like that’s fine. Why are there even lucky accounts at all? Why design the game like that? These people don’t even have to grind because they are so rich from drops.
Yeah I am ranting a bit but I hate unnecessary unfairness. After 35hours of farming and not dropping a key, and over 5 thousand hours in the game and not dropped a single thing worth over 10 gold, i am getting annoyed.

I feel like this should’ve turned into a discussion about chemtrails by now.

niea.7504:

I feel like this should’ve turned into a discussion about chemtrails by now.

I heard ArenaNet is putting fluoride in the beta portals so they can control your mind.

niea.7504:

I feel like this should’ve turned into a discussion about chemtrails by now.

Jet fuel can’t melt steel portal stones!

::laughs::

But seriously, having the game check to see if they already have beta access and then not give them the portal stone is just another needless check every time they loot something, and extra code that would have needed to be written (and have a chance of being buggy). They kept it as simple as possible while still doing what they had in mind. Some people wind up with more than one, but it doesn’t matter.

I’m sure they can tell how many accounts have been flagged for beta access. When time for the beta arrives, they’ll add in enough newsletter accounts to make up any they’re short, and that’s that. Ironically, that means that if people were not farming for these things, there would be a lot more people getting added to the beta by random chance from the newsletter, no farming required. Farming creates farming, in this case.

LucosTheDutch.4819:

Leto Atreides II.2153:

I suggest you go read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

It’s sickening me how many people complain about the fact that a lottery turned out to be a lottery. If you go buy a physical lottery ticket, do you spit out bile each time you do not win? You chose to try this COMPLETELY optional activity, don’t get too emotional over this.

It’s totally reasonable that 2 portals drop for 1 person (it would be statistically improbable if noone got any duplicate worldwide). Also, it’s totally unreasonable to expect ArenaNet to limit portals to one per account, and for at least one reason: it’s simplier to leave it like that, rather than employ additional limitations which their framework might not even be flexible enough to support. Get reasonable.

I think what kittenes people off isn’t the fact that this is a lottery (because it actually really isn’t), but that it’s a lottery that requires grinding.

I didn’t mind how Anet chose to select their stress testers during the first closed-Beta round because I didn’t have to do anything for it and whether I got selected or not was completely out of my control.

However, right now, you are required to grind your kitten off to get Beta access, and even when you do grind your kitten off it’s not guaranteed that you’ll get a Beta portal. I personally spend my fair share in SW this week and didn’t get jack. It wasn’t worth my time at all, so I simply gave up on it.

Having a lottery is one thing. Having a lottery where you have to grind in order to have a chance to win the price is not something I’m willing to commit myself to. I absolutely loathe how GW2’s RNG works and how you have to grind to extreme lengths in order to get anything of value. It’s one thing to grind for a legendary weapon, but for a temporary Beta access? No thank you.

That’s why I’m okay with a real lottery (handing out Beta access to players who subscribed to the newsletter) but I’m not okay with this current “lottery”.

You might have miss the statement that players are chosen from the Newsletter pool, as well as from obtaining a Portal Stone. There has been no statement, that I know of, about when those chosen from the Newsletter pool have, or will be, selected. They may have been chosen before Portal Stones dropped, during the time-frame, or after.

Regardless, as long as you are signed up to the Newsletter, there is a chance to be chosen without ever setting foot in Dry Top or the Silverwastes.

Good luck.

MURKATRON.8425:

Really annoying how people are trying to make out like everyone has a fair chance at a beta key.
About 7-8 people in my guild have dropped beta keys. Most of them have more than 1 key, one guy has 4. Most of them have already dropped one or multiple precursors in the past. Myself and others in the guild have spent double, triple or even quadruple the time as them farming and dropped nothing. Most of them were not signed up to the newsletter beforehand and they still got drops.
Some people say they are on lucky accounts like that’s fine. Why are there even lucky accounts at all? Why design the game like that? These people don’t even have to grind because they are so rich from drops.
Yeah I am ranting a bit but I hate unnecessary unfairness. After 35hours of farming and not dropping a key, and over 5 thousand hours in the game and not dropped a single thing worth over 10 gold, i am getting annoyed.

Agree, and it is something Anet are aware off, and was looking in to, however that was 6 months ago and no new answers from them in 3 months, so not holding out much hope.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/page/19#post5039710

I’ve witnessed players post stacks o 2 to 5 portal stones in map chat and say they weren’t even trying for them. They just got them while doing regular things.

Make of that what you will.

Why are people so obsessed about getting to do a few events in a PvE map?

Vikkela.7261:

Why are people so obsessed about getting to do a few events in a PvE map?

Because it’s early access to content, and gamers are entitled and impatient by nature.

Gaile Gray.6029:

Oh, and don’t forget: Increase your chances — sign up for the newsletter!

That’s what I’ve been saying in-game, but people keep saying “no-no-no…”.
Well, I’m subscribed and got the portal drop, sooo….
Just one, I have better things to do than farm multiple drops just to erk other players that haven’t gotten one yet.

Gaile Gray.6029:

Oh, and don’t forget: Increase your chances — sign up for the newsletter!

I have been trying for days, I never get the confirmation mail…

forum bug