Guild Wars 2

People may be listing these items on the TP for 400-500g, but I have a hard time believing they’re actually selling at that price.

I participated in the final event last Sunday and didn’t get a precursor and don’t know anybody that did. I don’t doubt that there were very rare occasions where someone may have gotten two, but those had to be extremely rare occurrences.

Debsylvania.7396:

People may be listing these items on the TP for 400-500g, but I have a hard time believing they’re actually selling at that price.

I participated in the final event last Sunday and didn’t get a precursor and don’t know anybody that did. I don’t doubt that there were very rare occasions where someone may have gotten two, but those had to be extremely rare occurrences.

The instance I was in had the chat window flooded with precursors to the point it was scrolling, some even getting two, it didn’t help that those people then started talking about how to exploit the chest and get it again.

The Economy is royally gooned right now, be the results come now or later. The power traders got theirs on a golden ticket.

As one of the players who didn’t get a precursor even though I was participating in the event from start to finish (which took our server a little over 2 hours), it was kind of a let down that some players got real lucky while others didn’t. It is what it is though… I’d prefer they just make a precursor formula that was like one crafted exotic and 3 dungeon exotics of the same weapon type (but different dungeon) or something like that…. Demonstrating “skill” in a crafting profession and skill in dungeons. Yeah, there’s the gift for dungeons, but the same is true for professions as well… I’d much prefer grinding tokens with some material grinding for a sure bet over grinding for rare/exotic mats for RNG (and hopefully I’m not alone on this).

I know someone who did get one and it is not even a weapon usable by their class.
This person is sitting on it now waiting for the market to once again go up so he can make more than 80 g.
I also know of some free trials that have gotten a precursor, which frankly slaps the people who have worked months to gamble in the forge, in the face.
I missed the event, so I obviously didn’t get anything for it, it was my choice.
So yes OP, I agree with you.
There are many suggestions on the suggestion forum on how to handle the precursor issue.
Sadly it was not listened to.

He could always roll an alt that could use it, Morrigan.

GW2 Forums…home of the “entitlement crowd”.

I had to work that day. No problemo…its just a game, right?

I have a similiar issue; I was asleep for this event.

Wake up, its over.
Lovely.

Raf.1078:

He could always roll an alt that could use it, Morrigan.

GW2 Forums…home of the “entitlement crowd”.

I had to work that day. No problemo…its just a game, right?

I know people who, if they found a 1 lb gold brick in thier attack, would complain that it was dusty. It’s just the way it is.

What is inequality ?

They know and they don’t care. That’s how I see it.
I guess some of you guys were right saying “Take it or leave it”. Nothing is going to change, so might as well take the advice.

So tired of the ‘entitlement’ comments. It’s like I’m listening to faux news Republican propaganda machine.

Perhaps Anet was trying to increase supply so that the prices will go down?

Nefar.8135:

So tired of the ‘entitlement’ comments. It’s like I’m listening to faux news Republican propaganda machine.

Not nearly as tired as I am of listening to all of the endless bellyaching over the most minor of bullkitten.

I am furious about what they did this weekend. I’ve been a dedicated player of GW2 up until now. I’m was also a big fan of GW1. But THIS?! This is just some major bullkitten.

I’ve put tons of effort into making gold, hours upon hours, and I still don’t really have enough to control any market, and suddenly ANet gifts double the amount of gold to random people who probably don’t even need it in the first place? Yeah, that’s a nice middle finger to me, that’s what I deserve right?

This is seriously the reason I finally quit for good. Random players get double the amount of gold gifted to them for a 2 hour event, that I worked for for 3 months?! That’s some major bullsh, no thank you. I’ve seriously not logged on since this event happened, this is a ridiculous kittenup, worse than I’ve ever seen in SWTOR.

Its been this way for some time – think about the exploiters that got to keep their ill gotten gains. They dont have roll back tech so each one was asked to delete it on the good conscious. Right they exploited the game and they will be good players.

Unfortunately for you Anet doest care about this. What they do care about is that you stop complaining about the RNG be a good little gamer and go grind your treadmill.
Pretty soon there will be a huge economic and gear gap between the real players and the casuals. Since you are not one of the preferred players it doesnt matter.
Sorry to say but that is just how it is. I agree but dont bother.

Raf.1078:

He could always roll an alt that could use it, Morrigan.

GW2 Forums…home of the “entitlement crowd”.

I had to work that day. No problemo…its just a game, right?

I realize that, but since I am not this person I cannot tell you why he has not done that.
I can only tell you what he said, he held onto it in order to make more money off the TP- My post was in response to the OP
For me the final event was 9. 0 clock on a Monday morning, so kindly don’t call me entiteled- I am 41 with a life.
@ xtorma- could you clarify because I don’t understand what you are talking about.

Narkosys.5173:

Its been this way for some time – think about the exploiters that got to keep their ill gotten gains. They dont have roll back tech so each one was asked to delete it on the good conscious. Right they exploited the game and they will be good players.

Unfortunately for you Anet doest care about this. What they do care about is that you stop complaining about the RNG be a good little gamer and go grind your treadmill.
Pretty soon there will be a huge economic and gear gap between the real players most dedicated players and the casuals. Since you are not one of the preferred players it doesnt matter.
Sorry to say but that is just how it is. I agree but dont bother.

Nefar.8135:

So tired of the ‘entitlement’ comments. It’s like I’m listening to faux news Republican propaganda machine.

ZOMG

I don’t know why politics would ever enter this discussion, but I am raging so hard at this nonsense.

The idea that “everyone’s a winner, so if you don’t get the same medal as everyone else you should scream until you get one” somehow represents the aspirations of the progressive movement is both idiotic and offensive.

Next thing you know people will start complaining about losing the lottery.

Some people got lucky and some people didn’t If you actually watched the markets like some people did, the amount of precursors supplied even during the crash doesn’t even amount to 1% of the general population.

What does that mean? There was a general increase of about 10-15 precursors per precursor or an increase of about 100% supplied. Regionally. For all of NA. That means in the thousands of people playing, maybe about 150 got a precursor. That’s a VERY small amount. Hell you still have better chances to get a precursor from the mystic forge then that event.

If you’re gonna complain about rewards being unfair due to the RNG nature of MMOs, you are better off not playing MMOs and better off playing singleplayer games.

I don’t get you people- the complaint on these forums for months surrounding precursors was the ridiculous RNG attached to the precursor from the mystic forge.
The solution Anet saw fit was to throw precursors at people in a one time event (RNG).
This is not smart- it is extremely stupid and you only have to head over to the crafting forum to see that people with a bankroll are buying them up for cheap and expect fully to control the market in another week.
So stop.
Read the suggestion forum, there are plenty of ways over there to address precursors.
Those ideas do not involve the Lotto.
Also the rest of the world does not live in the US so keep your politics out of this discussion.
You may not agree with the OP, but enough with the name calling.
Also just stop with saying this is the nature of MMo’s , “oh you are so naive”
- you are, for being conditioned to think like that

Oh no, someone else has more gold than me. That was never the case before this week.

Morrigan.2809:

I don’t get you people- the complaint on these forums for months surrounding precursors was the ridiculous RNG attached to the precursor from the mystic forge.
The solution Anet saw fit was to throw precursors at people in a one time event (RNG).
This is not smart- it is extremely stupid and you only have to head over to the crafting forum to see that people with a bankroll are buying them up for cheap and expect fully to control the market in another week.
So stop.
Read the suggestion forum, there are plenty of ways over there to address precursors.
Those ideas do not involve the Lotto.
Also the rest of the world does not live in the US so keep your politics out of this discussion.
You may not agree with the OP, but enough with the name calling.
Also just stop with saying this is the nature of MMo’s , “oh you are so naive”
- you are, for being conditioned to think like that

Stop being so naive. You say people control the market at higher amounts of money is ridiculous. You really think people who HAVE the money actually BUY precursors out at 400? Of course not. That’s a ridiculous thought in itself.

I’ll split it off to you number wise. First off, the basics of any economy is supply vs demand. The price can not be controlled as long as the ability to enter the market is fairly easy, and it is. Anyone with dumbluck can get a precursor and not everyone is in it to control the market.

The price of precursors and the result of how much gold people actually have vs the amount of precursors available.

In the last patch they updates the chances of getting precursors from a few ways RNG. This results in a higher supply of the precursors. In addition, with the ban of Gold Sellers/Buyers recently, there will be a decrease in overall money in the game.

Both would result in prices for precursors to go down as less people would buy precursors at a higher price and more precursors are available. In addition, the huge spike of precursors result in an even lower price for precursors because of the large supply.

What does that mean? Unless someone has the ability to predict the prices via unknown percent increases in the Mystic Forge and the actual number of precursors in the market currently, it would be close to impossible to control the market at any stable price for a very long time.

It’s a good short term fix. As for the long term fix, ANet has already announced they are working on a way to make precursors not so RNG.

Dont’ feel bad; some of us participated in the event and got kicked out of the overflow due to ArenaNet having buggy code, and got nothing. Not a bag; not a trinket. Not even a few yellow items to pay for having all of our armor destroyed.

And now we’ve received absolutely no update since Sunday on what they’re doing to make this right.

If they can’t even communicate about the folks who got nothing at all, do you really think they’re going to consider the folks who got something, but just not as much as others?

If you consider that ArenaNet’s primary source of revenue of you from GW2 at this point is selling you Gems, then the act of giving out as many precursors as possible makes a lot of sense — it makes a lot of folks want to buy Gems to buy the mats to complete their legendaries. It’s a government stimulus program.

I personally won’t put a dime into this game or encourage anyone to play it until I see a sign that ArenaNet is making good on their promise to right the wrong of Sunday’s debacle. Having read nothing in the announcements since then suggests they aren’t going to be able to make this right, and want to put some distance between the event and when they announce some sort of minor compensation for their buggy code ruining the event for a significant portion of the player base.

Lol the economy was “destroyed” at launch with all the karma gear and Godskull exploits. Players were posting screenshots of 900g within the first 3 weeks. If anything this event brought prices down a bit. Yes I got a precursor, and subsequently mailed it to a guildie for 25g. The economy in this game is regulated about as well as the Federal Reserve.

But hang on, precursors also drop rarely from other events, like the Temple of Balthazar. That, too, creates an inequitable situation, because not everybody gets 200+ gold’s worth of drops in every run, right?

I therefore move that precursors be banned from dropping in any event, ever. It’s the only way to be absolutely fair to everyone, after all.

….why, whatever do you mean when you say “that’s not the same thing”? It’s exactly the same. So let’s apply the standard equally to everything, or else you can stop bellyaching about not getting what you wanted for Christmas, little boy.

Precursor items have always been horrendously overpriced, and people have gotten away with those prices because the vast majority of folks aren’t willing or able to grind for themselves, so they’re forced to spend their characters’ life savings on this one shiny bauble. If anything, precursors need to appear in more releases, to get the prices back down to something that approaches a reasonable amount, to put an end to the absurd elitism of the hardcore grinders at the top. The same grinders that ANet is trying to cater to with these “ascended” items. >_>

So if I spent the event time farming four rares, threw them in the mystic forge, and out popped a precursor then that was horribly unfair to you as well? What were the actual odds of a precursor from the event?

Fortuna.7259:

So if I spent the event time farming four rares, threw them in the mystic forge, and out popped a precursor then that was horribly unfair to you as well? What were the actual odds of a precursor from the event?

I don’t think its the RNG alone that the OP is complaining about (although many people hate them) but because this was also a one time event. This along with the RNG with high precursor drops means many people got lucky and earned vast sums of gold, therefore artificially creating a large wealth gap consisting of the ones who got lucky at the RNG and those who didn’t. And to make it worse, it’s a wealth gap created by pure luck rather than being earned. At least with other RNGs, they even out a bit through farming / rolling multiple times.

That’s the thing. No one knows. It was common enough that a lot of people got them, but definitely not as high as 25% some people are quoting or even the 10% some people are quoting.

Also nice use of logic on the forge thing. Hadn’t thought of it that way.

Wealth envy in real life is bad enough. Wealth envy in Tyria? lololololololol

Norida.8692:

Make precursors account bound, every single one, it was the best solution and it was something that should have been done from the start.

That would have been a very bad idea. Imagine that someone wants to make a Bifrost, but got an account-bound Dusk; what would be the advantage to that person? It would have been better to receive a common, non account bound exotic, since at least it would sell for more than vendor prices at the TP.

This entire thing wasn’t so bad. It could have been handled better, of course, but I think it was more good than bad for the game. The impact it had:

• “I worked so hard for my precursor and people got it easily”: I’m sorry, but that’s a very bad argument. Mostly for two reasons: one, that’s already how the system works, due to the RNG inherent to the Mystic Forge (the guy who did the event and got a precursor had as much “work” as the guy who got four rares as drops and got a precursor from the Mystic Forge in his first try). Two, the fact it’s so annoying and so RNG-based to get the precursors is exactly why ArenaNet should change how those items are acquired. People should not have to “suffer” to get them, so the reasoning of “I suffered a lot to get them, so everyone else has to suffer too!” is really bad.

• It made a bunch of people rich, true. But not rich enough to manipulate the market. The real issue of the precursor market was how the supply was so limited that a few TP players could monopolize the precursor market, by buying all the currently available precursors and selling them at higher prices. This allowed people to make a small fortune, unlimited by systems such as the DR, which prevents farmers from similarly making easy money. Those who became rich due finding one precursor did not get enough money to monopolize the precursor market; at most, they got enough money to buy a couple precursors, that’s it. Meanwhile, the TP players trying to monopolize the market (and basically exploit other players) got shafted, since they are not capable to buy all precursors anymore due to the increase in supply. This will be temporary*, but at least for now the price of the precursors has finally fallen a bit.

Those saying “OMG ArenaNet is so greedy!”: this wasn’t out of greed. Quite the opposite, ArenaNet is potentially losing money since the amount of gems needed to buy precursors has actually fallen.

No, this was a move to reduce the price of precursors and reduce a bit the way the really rich players can manipulate the market and thus exploit other players. Too bad it won’t last long.

*Unless ArenaNet does something about it. IMO, they should give a token to everyone who finishes the storyline, and allow people to freely exchange it for a single precursor of their choice, not account bound.

The lottery analogy doesn’t hold for this event.

When you purchase a lottery ticket you know you’re participating in a lottery. No one knew massive amounts of precursors were going to spew from a one time chest, let alone multiple times throughout the day on the overflow servers.

They also don’t change the lottery odds right before a drawing.

What I’m most interesting in finding out is whether or not the One time event was meant to have chests lootable by alts, and if the event was meant to run in the overflows throughout the day. I know people who parked alts and made extra toons to farm chests… getting 3-4 chests from a single overflow, deleting characters and re-positioning them etc. I did not personally participate in that behavior because it wasn’t clear to me whether or not that was intended or exploitable. Seeing as how people didn’t get banned for doing this, it looks like once again I’m stuck sitting behind the curve.

Really if they wanted to flood the market with precursors, there are better more equitable ways.

Jahva.1895:

Dont’ feel bad; some of us participated in the event and got kicked out of the overflow due to ArenaNet having buggy code, and got nothing. Not a bag; not a trinket. Not even a few yellow items to pay for having all of our armor destroyed.

And now we’ve received absolutely no update since Sunday on what they’re doing to make this right.

If they can’t even communicate about the folks who got nothing at all, do you really think they’re going to consider the folks who got something, but just not as much as others?

If you consider that ArenaNet’s primary source of revenue of you from GW2 at this point is selling you Gems, then the act of giving out as many precursors as possible makes a lot of sense — it makes a lot of folks want to buy Gems to buy the mats to complete their legendaries. It’s a government stimulus program.

I personally won’t put a dime into this game or encourage anyone to play it until I see a sign that ArenaNet is making good on their promise to right the wrong of Sunday’s debacle. Having read nothing in the announcements since then suggests they aren’t going to be able to make this right, and want to put some distance between the event and when they announce some sort of minor compensation for their buggy code ruining the event for a significant portion of the player base.

The only communication I’ve seen so far about the “one time only event” is that apparently those who imo exploited it for multiple chances at the chests were the smart ones(see the final reply to the thread linked below).

Apparently those who like me who saw the ability to run and park multiple alts at the chest location mid event on overflow servers that hadn’t yet completed the “one time only event” and then spammed for invites to it or kept relogging, for what it was and did not, weren’t.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/archive/lostshores/Do-the-right-thing-and-ban-people-who-exploit/page/3#post813875

One time events like this should not have extreme difference in drops. In a lottery, you can always buy again, you can always invest more into it. In this, you are just giving random people a lot of money. Also in a lottery, you have to invest for you to get an reward, this is what you have to do. In this event, people parked alts at the chest spawn and got items but others can’t even finish it. People got more money in 1 day than people who played everyday since release. People who didn’t get it can’t just go and get it again.

This completely screwed up the market as well. Almost the entire market crashed except for T6 mats, dyes and Ecto. People who invested in things are now screwed as well. Anyone who invested in a precursor before the update would have gotten screwed. Anyone who owned significant amount of any item would have gotten screwed. Even having gold is now worth less because people now have much more money in just 1 day meaning they can buy more than you. Why go back to grind for money? A dedicated fan wouldn’t want to keep playing if others are just randomly given so much advantage. Why would you play in between events if events give 20000x better drops? In 3 hours you can make enough money that you would never have to grind ever again. 3 hours during event = 300 hours outside event. Trying outside events is pointless now.

Just log in during events and do it. Get all the rewards you’d ever want from that. Grinding is pointless. Trying to do better is pointless. Just wait to get lucky.

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

gogoapoxy.1425:

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15%
not a big sample so I won’t use it, I will use 1% as a low ball estimate.

Now, lets say 3 million people played on day 3. half finished the event. and 1% got a precursor. Now there is 15 000 new precursors added in 1 day.

Kinda seems a little silly to complain cause someone has gotten two precursors, As if they couldn’t get two from any other chest in the game with the dragons or otherwise. It’s just extreme luck…

Secondly, If someone has enough money to buy those precursors at that price, Then what does it matter if it goes too someone else, Obviously if people can pay that much people have that much if not more already..

Imperial Thor.5487:

Kinda seems a little silly to complain cause someone has gotten two precursors, As if they couldn’t get two from any other chest in the game with the dragons or otherwise. It’s just extreme luck…

Secondly, If someone has enough money to buy those precursors at that price, Then what does it matter if it goes too someone else, Obviously if people can pay that much people have that much if not more already..

this is a one time only event. You can redo the dragon chests. This event has a much higher chance to get the items.

If someone has money and you make it worthless that good right?

Esrever.8613:

gogoapoxy.1425:

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15%
not a big sample so I won’t use it, I will use 1% as a low ball estimate.

Now, lets say 3 million people played on day 3. half finished the event. and 1% got a precursor. Now there is 15 000 new precursors added in 1 day.

Got a bit of “light reading” for you to do. It will explain to you why your point is entirely moot far better than I ever could.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

gogoapoxy.1425:

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15%
not a big sample so I won’t use it, I will use 1% as a low ball estimate.

Now, lets say 3 million people played on day 3. half finished the event. and 1% got a precursor. Now there is 15 000 new precursors added in 1 day.

Got a bit of “light reading” for you to do. It will explain to you why your point is entirely moot far better than I ever could.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

you don’t seem to understand my point.

Esrever.8613:

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

gogoapoxy.1425:

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15%
not a big sample so I won’t use it, I will use 1% as a low ball estimate.

Now, lets say 3 million people played on day 3. half finished the event. and 1% got a precursor. Now there is 15 000 new precursors added in 1 day.

Got a bit of “light reading” for you to do. It will explain to you why your point is entirely moot far better than I ever could.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

you don’t seem to understand my point.

No, I do. You just don’t understand why your point is utterly meaningless.

Quoting a handful of people that you know and play the game with is not an unbiased
sample. It’s a choice sample and the results will be skewed.

I could point out that among all of my guildmates and friends, none of us received a precursor. So based on your logic, that means the precursors had a 0% drop rate, right? Obviously not, but it follows the same strand of logic. When you take an incredibly small sample of players and used biased methods in doing so, your results will always be meaningless and will indicate virtually nothing of actual meaning or value.

This is basic statistics.

What would be a much BETTER indicator is if ANet were to post statistics as to how many players obtained precursors in total during the event. But most likely people would just claim that they’re lying because….obviously they’d have every reason to make up numbers, right?

I am with you on this OP, but Anet won’t answer on any of these posts unfortunately.

This is great! Out of all issues coming out of this patch, I’ve finally found one I don’t have a problem with. People actually getting very rare drops is fantastic. I’ve never had an OMG moment with hundreds of hours in, but I’m encouraged they are actually happening and celebrate the good fortune of those so gifted.

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

gogoapoxy.1425:

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15%
not a big sample so I won’t use it, I will use 1% as a low ball estimate.

Now, lets say 3 million people played on day 3. half finished the event. and 1% got a precursor. Now there is 15 000 new precursors added in 1 day.

Got a bit of “light reading” for you to do. It will explain to you why your point is entirely moot far better than I ever could.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

you don’t seem to understand my point.

No, I do. You just don’t understand why your point is utterly meaningless.

Quoting a handful of people that you know and play the game with is not an unbiased
sample. It’s a choice sample and the results will be skewed.

I could point out that among all of my guildmates and friends, none of us received a precursor. So based on your logic, that means the precursors had a 0% drop rate, right? Obviously not, but it follows the same strand of logic. When you take an incredibly small sample of players and used biased methods in doing so, your results will always be meaningless and will indicate virtually nothing of actual meaning or value.

This is basic statistics.

What would be a much BETTER indicator is if ANet were to post statistics as to how many players obtained precursors in total during the event. But most likely people would just claim that they’re lying because….obviously they’d have every reason to make up numbers, right?

you still don’t seem to understand my point.

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

gogoapoxy.1425:

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15%
not a big sample so I won’t use it, I will use 1% as a low ball estimate.

Now, lets say 3 million people played on day 3. half finished the event. and 1% got a precursor. Now there is 15 000 new precursors added in 1 day.

Got a bit of “light reading” for you to do. It will explain to you why your point is entirely moot far better than I ever could.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

you don’t seem to understand my point.

No, I do. You just don’t understand why your point is utterly meaningless.

Quoting a handful of people that you know and play the game with is not an unbiased
sample. It’s a choice sample and the results will be skewed.

I could point out that among all of my guildmates and friends, none of us received a precursor. So based on your logic, that means the precursors had a 0% drop rate, right? Obviously not, but it follows the same strand of logic. When you take an incredibly small sample of players and used biased methods in doing so, your results will always be meaningless and will indicate virtually nothing of actual meaning or value.

This is basic statistics.

What would be a much BETTER indicator is if ANet were to post statistics as to how many players obtained precursors in total during the event. But most likely people would just claim that they’re lying because….obviously they’d have every reason to make up numbers, right?

Let’s compare shall we?

“I could point out that among all of my guildmates and friends, none of us received a precursor. So based on your logic, that means the precursors had a 0% drop rate, right? Obviously not.”

Versus

“in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15% "

Now read.

Dokuroizo.5348:

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

critickitten.1498:

Esrever.8613:

gogoapoxy.1425:

Im not sure the drop raye was really all that beefed up.

Given that, i assume, a vast majority of active accounts that were logged in were in the event it is no surprise that several dozens or hundred dropped.

I am also not convinced everyone posting a precursor in chat actually obtained it in the chest, or that they were all precursor. There are several named exotics with special effects, that aren’t precursor.

No, neither i nor any of the six other guildies i wad with received a precursor. Several named exotics though.

in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15%
not a big sample so I won’t use it, I will use 1% as a low ball estimate.

Now, lets say 3 million people played on day 3. half finished the event. and 1% got a precursor. Now there is 15 000 new precursors added in 1 day.

Got a bit of “light reading” for you to do. It will explain to you why your point is entirely moot far better than I ever could.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

you don’t seem to understand my point.

No, I do. You just don’t understand why your point is utterly meaningless.

Quoting a handful of people that you know and play the game with is not an unbiased
sample. It’s a choice sample and the results will be skewed.

I could point out that among all of my guildmates and friends, none of us received a precursor. So based on your logic, that means the precursors had a 0% drop rate, right? Obviously not, but it follows the same strand of logic. When you take an incredibly small sample of players and used biased methods in doing so, your results will always be meaningless and will indicate virtually nothing of actual meaning or value.

This is basic statistics.

What would be a much BETTER indicator is if ANet were to post statistics as to how many players obtained precursors in total during the event. But most likely people would just claim that they’re lying because….obviously they’d have every reason to make up numbers, right?

Let’s compare shall we?

“I could point out that among all of my guildmates and friends, none of us received a precursor. So based on your logic, that means the precursors had a 0% drop rate, right? Obviously not.”

Versus

“in my guild of about 20 people who finished the event, 3 got precursors.
3/20 = 15% "

Now read.

You’re the one needing to read. That link I provided isn’t just there for show.

Both my example and his are perfect examples of sampling bias. They’re MEANINGLESS as indicators of the real trend.

Its not wealth envy, it’s devaluation of what I have. The price of gems went up 50% over the last few days. This is probably due in large part to a few players who have 100’s of gold deciding to put some in gems. It doesn’t matter the % who got the drop. What matters is that the market is already showing trends of a minority changing market values. I use BL salvage kits to turn exotics on the market. I could care less a guy got a precursor. However when a BL kit costs me an extra 1.5 gold it makes things harder for me. It’s not about envy, it’s about how massive wealth redistribution to a minority has negative impacts on real things I do in game.

Welp my apologies! I seem to mixed up Esrevers and your message. It gave a real strange view of contradiction. Nevermind me, I am just here being stupid.

Debsylvania.7396:

People may be listing these items on the TP for 400-500g, but I have a hard time believing they’re actually selling at that price.

I participated in the final event last Sunday and didn’t get a precursor and don’t know anybody that did. I don’t doubt that there were very rare occasions where someone may have gotten two, but those had to be extremely rare occurrences.

this

I wonder if this thread would be here if you were one of the people that got a pre-cursor. Hmmmm

I’d just like to give ANet a BIG ‘thank you’ for running this event at 3-6am Oceanic time!

It was so awesome to hear about all the precursor and exotics we missed out on. Please run more of these one time events at this time so we can miss out on further epic loot!!!

The way I see it, the problem people are having is that the possibility of a precursor reward was utterly disproportionate to the content of the event. No other event in the game has ever rewarded approximately 3 hours of gameplay, doable by a character of any level and experience, with hundreds of gold worth of value. Nothing has even come close.

I doubt many people would be defending a system that, 3 hours after you log into the game for the first time, sends you a mail that has a 10% chance to contain 200 gold, yet that is hardly different from what happened. The lottery-by-mail system might actually be more rational, since it would be unaffected by time zone issues and server disconnections.

There is nothing wrong with a range of random rewards, but the range should be sane. The minimum possible reward, the 20 slot bag and the unique accessory, could safely be valued at 15 gold. The maximum possible reward (considering the potential for 2 precursors to drop per chest, and up to 5+ chests for those who were lucky/crafty in bouncing between the right overflows) is well over 1000 gold. To me, a 15 to 1000 gold range is not reasonable for any single event.