Guild Wars 2

Well kitten that’s too many exotics, incoming nerfs!

I hope you didn’t buy those rares. You save so much money crafting them yourself…

If you play the MF expecting to win, you’re going to have a bad time.

This is absolutely ridiculous. New ways to obtain precursors should be a higher priority on ANet’s list.

And this is why I don’t care to ever bother getting a lengendary, unless I get incredibly lucky and get the precursor as a drop. RNG is not fun.

doing a similar experiment but instead of rares ill buy exotics only.. so far 158g invested, waiting for items to arrive

A precursor should be purchasable for 2500 dungeon tokens of each dungeon type. Hard work – tons of grinding – but at least you are working towards a goal instead of flushing your stuff through the mystic toilet.

Ouch, looks like they’ve reduced the chances of getting a precursor even more then. Used to be that 500g+ on rares would pretty much assure you of one.

Thank you for sharing your pain with us.

Anet. Please fix precursors. There is no reason for anything to cost 500G on the trade post.

What was intended as a small step on the road to a Legendary has become the whole journey. Compared with getting a Precursor, all the other stuff you need to craft one is insignificant.

RNG is a terrible way to hand out the best rewards in the game, please reconsider this as a strategy.

Anet really needs to respect the players’ time more.

Chamone.6890:

Ouch, looks like they’ve reduced the chances of getting a precursor even more then. Used to be that 500g+ on rares would pretty much assure you of one.

Thank you for sharing your pain with us.

Anet. Please fix precursors.

To be fair, with 500g previously you could have bought 2-4x as many rares :P

But yep, it needs to change… I get that it’s supposed to be rare, and no we don’t want everyone to have them, but it’s this luck based mystic toilet that we’re all so sick of flushing our money down.

The RNG aspect of legendaries is quite rediculous. I have guildies who have been trying for ages. Meanwhile, I finally decided to get Bolt and 5 minutes later in under 4g of rare Swords got Zap on my fourth attempt.

This is strange, one must spend gazillion gold in mf to get procursor other just bought 4-8 rares and got one ! This happened in my guild one spend like 60gold and got dagger precursor, other just bought 8 rares and got this same. I trying for ages but still out of luck.

130 is not divisible by 4. Typo? Or reused 2 Exotics that were forged during the set?
And why is this hidden in the bug forum?

Strontius.6478:

This is absolutely ridiculous. New ways to obtain precursors should be a higher priority on ANet’s list.

But it’s not a way to obtain precursors, it’s a way to obtain an exotic 2Her.
And it happens to have a very tiny chance of getting you precursor. So ignorable small instead that intentionally going for it is automatically – strongly – discouraged.

In other words, chances are set so low in games you create because you don’t want people to perceive it as a legitimate goal to pursue. Rather it’s an extraordinary rare lottery win bonus.

all depends on luck

I get three Dusk’s in less than two months.

Dusk No.1 – 12 December 2012 – I spent on him about 50 gold and on the second char still had about 40 rare greatsword. Profit: 550 gold

Dusk No.2 – 29 January 2013 – I spent on him 1560 Ascalonian Tear’s on exotic greatswords and that was all. Profit: 700 gold

Dusk No.3 – 30 January 2013 – I spent on him about 200 gold. Profit: Precursor for my Twilight

Screenshots album: http://imgur.com/a/8qtfD#0

On the other hand, I put 4 exotic GS on the mystic forge yesterday and I got a Dawn. It’s all luck.

I know a lot of people who have begun making their legendary and like all of them they lack their precursor. I however went the other way around, I didn’t start collecting/crafting my legendary until I got my precursor. I know it may sound dumb but I never stressed over making my weapon because I got the ‘unobtainable precursor’ first. I would advise others to do the same, the MF is a cold beast that enjoys eating your hard earned money and spitting out junk. Yet, we keep trying because it’s a gamble. What’s life without a few risks right? Thank you for posting your findings. I know it took you a lot of time and gold, best of luck to ya!

Chamone.6890:

Ouch, looks like they’ve reduced the chances of getting a precursor even more then. Used to be that 500g+ on rares would pretty much assure you of one.

Thank you for sharing your pain with us.

Anet. Please fix precursors. There is no reason for anything to cost 500G on the trade post.

What was intended as a small step on the road to a Legendary has become the whole journey. Compared with getting a Precursor, all the other stuff you need to craft one is insignificant.

RNG is a terrible way to hand out the best rewards in the game, please reconsider this as a strategy.

No, it’s called RNG… some people will drop 2000k and never see a precursor. Some guy will run up to the MF with 4 rares and get a dusk. It’s how it goes.

dumb luck is.. dumb, that is all.

not rly a bug tho, working as intended.

Mystic Toilet. Confirmed.

Absolutely ridiculous and absurd. It is things like this that really make me question ArenaNet. If only I was in beta and was able to abuse early release tricks/precursor saving to be rich right now =(. Oh well, the legit/uninformed players pay for it now I guess.

The low RNG is being applied to an aesthetic upgrade over exotic items.

Non-factor?

So sorry This is one reason i am not trying to get a legendary. Gambling is not fun for me.

Hyde.6189:

And this is why I don’t care to ever bother getting a lengendary, unless I get incredibly lucky and get the precursor as a drop. RNG is not fun.

I agree with this. This kind of RNG is not fun at all.

I use 31.200 tokens for change in Exotic GS to do 20 fails 0 Precursor.
Craft 5.000 to do 1.250 Fails and 0 Precursor.
And buy some GS in the TP to do some combines in the Mystic Toilet.
I do for 3 long month to get nothing…. GG
So now save for more fail in Mystic Toilet.

heyhey.3947:

On the other hand, I put 4 exotic GS on the mystic forge yesterday and I got a Dawn. It’s all luck.

Epic comprehension fail.

The OP conducted this over a massive sample size for the purpose of data acquisition. The fact that you happened to get one on your first try does not change this data in the slightest.

I love how the very very few are the ones to speak out saying they got it on their “10th try” while the majority 99% of us get nothing in return after dumping their life savings into it and got jack all.

playandchill.3908:

Wat ?

You should had bought Dusk wiht those 550 gold.

He was doing it for science!

RNG!

personally I would have done 4 exos into the forge. At least it’s 100% I get back an exotic.

Blueshield.6291:

heyhey.3947:

On the other hand, I put 4 exotic GS on the mystic forge yesterday and I got a Dawn. It’s all luck.

Epic comprehension fail.

The OP conducted this over a massive sample size for the purpose of data acquisition. The fact that you happened to get one on your first try does not change this data in the slightest.

Epic statistics fail.

The OP conducted this over a miniscule sample size for the purpose of data acquisition. He’s testing for something that presumably has a rate of occurrence significantly below 1% but only has a sample size of about 400. A “massive sample size” would need to be in the tens of thousands at the very least. For this test, if we assume the rate of the mystic forge granting a precursor for 4 rare items is 0.5% then there is a 13.5% chance that a person putting 1600 rares (that is to say, 400 trials) will fail to receive a precursor. If we drop that assumed rate to 0.1% there is a 67% chance that no precursor is created. If we up the assumed rate to 1% (which seems awfully high to me, and would imply about a 5% rate for 4 exotics) there’s still a 2% chance a person would put 1600 rares into the forge without receiving a precursor back. While that seems like a low percentage, it actually implies that out of every 50 people that try with 1600 rares, on average one of them will fail.

The fact that someone else got one on the first try does not affect these data at all. However, it’s a huge mistake to try claim that these data represent a “massive” sample size.

Syeria.4812:

Blueshield.6291:

heyhey.3947:

On the other hand, I put 4 exotic GS on the mystic forge yesterday and I got a Dawn. It’s all luck.

Epic comprehension fail.

The OP conducted this over a massive sample size for the purpose of data acquisition. The fact that you happened to get one on your first try does not change this data in the slightest.

Epic statistics fail.

The OP conducted this over a miniscule sample size for the purpose of data acquisition. He’s testing for something that presumably has a rate of occurrence significantly below 1% but only has a sample size of about 400. A “massive sample size” would need to be in the tens of thousands at the very least. For this test, if we assume the rate of the mystic forge granting a precursor for 4 rare items is 0.5% then there is a 13.5% chance that a person putting 1600 rares (that is to say, 400 trials) will fail to receive a precursor. If we drop that assumed rate to 0.1% there is a 67% chance that no precursor is created. If we up the assumed rate to 1% (which seems awfully high to me, and would imply about a 5% rate for 4 exotics) there’s still a 2% chance a person would put 1600 rares into the forge without receiving a precursor back. While that seems like a low percentage, it actually implies that out of every 50 people that try with 1600 rares, on average one of them will fail.

The fact that someone else got one on the first try does not affect these data at all. However, it’s a huge mistake to try claim that these data represent a “massive” sample size.

You’re right, I should have said “comparatively massive,” because 400 is orders of magnitude greater than 1.

Either way, you’re seem to be missing the point of my post. I’m not claiming that the OP has created a statistical opus magnum that is the definitive test of the mystic forge – obviously a test orders of magnitude would be preferable. I’m saying that offering the statement “I got it on my first try!” is asinine as refutation of a testing pool 400 times larger.

It’s not that the OP has pinned it down precisely – far from it. But he’s gone a hell of a lot further than rolling the dice once.

Sounds like that little old lady who walks up to the Slot Machine you spent 3 hours on and gets the Jackpot on her first pull after you leave :-)

dont worry op, ofc people is going to come with smart stuff ‘’i got the precursor in my first try’’ but we know the precursors are absurd to get if isnt by the TP. They should add these items to temple merchants for 500 gold and 500k karma if they wanted (because apparently they want to protect the TP, snowflakes wise) so it will be in pair with the current prices.

in ‘’my days’’ precursors were 10-15 gold.

ChyrosNX.1834:

Disclaimer: I did this so you don’t have to. And yes, I’m totally broke after this lol.

Set 1, 130 Rare Greatswords, 63g. Result: 12 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 2, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 3, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 4, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 5, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 6, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 7, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 10 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 8, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 9, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 10, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 11, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor

Note: Exotics that I got are sold to TP to buy more rare greatswords. But after 11 tries of no precursor, I said what the heck and use all my leftover exotics to mystic forge as well.

Then the final straw…

Set 12, 32 Exotic Greatswords, (unknown price). Result: Even more exotics to mf, 0 Precursor

Summary

No of Sets: 12 sets within 1 day!
Total gold spent: 552g
Rare Swords: 1760 (incl, rare sword you get from MFing 4 of it)
Combine Count: 440 combines
*Result: * Emotionally damaging / disheartening (LOL! But no kidding!). It’s like going to casino with a lot of cash in hand and then go home empty handed.

Lesson learned: Mystic forge can get you rich sometimes or consumes all your hardwork. Learn when to stop. You don’t wanna get lose interest in this superb game after all. Like I said, I did this so you don’t have to.

Hope I helped the community with this information in one way or another.

I absolutely lost interest. I had to much time and played too much regardless, mostly mind numbing grind. In the end, this system is horrible and, frankly, antiquated. It’s not only bad design, it’s a lazy design.

I only followed up because I happened to see the post on reddit’s front pages and it deserves bad press.

Callynn.1684:

A precursor should be purchasable for 2500 dungeon tokens of each dungeon type. Hard work – tons of grinding – but at least you are working towards a goal instead of flushing your stuff through the mystic toilet.

Haaaha! “Mystic Toilet” That’s all I’ll ever call it again.

I like your idea too, btw.

The problem with this is the RNG, this should have been rewarded in a long kitten quest that players have to do to get it, instead of spending lots of gold and grind, one of the major flaw of creating a legendary.

Syeria.4812:

Epic statistics fail.

The OP conducted this over a miniscule sample size for the purpose of data acquisition. He’s testing for something that presumably has a rate of occurrence significantly below 1% but only has a sample size of about 400. A “massive sample size” would need to be in the tens of thousands at the very least.

I see “massive sample size” posted a lot in regards to statistics and usually it is incorrect. It ultimately depends upon what is attempting to be discerned as to how large the sample size must be. Increases in the sample size reduce error and for particularly low percent occurrences getting the accuracy within an acceptable range can be difficult; trying to determine tenths of a percent when your error is around a whole percent is not terribly useful.

However regardless of how “massive” or “tiny” the sample size, using the P value (confidence interval) we can make conclusions from the above test. The idea that it wasn’t a “massive sample size” so its useless is completely erroneous despite its pervasiveness on online forums.

In this case with a 440 trials with no drops we can say for a P value of .05 that the drop rate is less than .7%.

Now, we can’t really say much else about the drop rate from this test, but there are conclusions that can be drawn.

First try precursors are no less scientific. Simply add first try guy’s four rares into the op’s sample. So instead of 440 tries and no precursor now its 441 tries and one precursor. Now add in my own 20 tries and its 461 tries and 1 precursor. Calm down!

Slither Shade.4782:

First try precursors are no less scientific. Simply add first try guy’s four rares into the op’s sample. So instead of 440 tries and no precursor now its 441 tries and one precursor. Now add in my own 20 tries and its 461 tries and 1 precursor. Calm down!

Yeah, if that was the purpose of the post, that’d be a perfectly valid approach. But the post came in and attempted to refute – not add to – the OP by claiming a precursor on 1/1 attempts.

The Mystic Toilet strikes again!

ChyrosNX.1834:

Disclaimer: I did this so you don’t have to. And yes, I’m totally broke after this lol.

Set 1, 130 Rare Greatswords, 63g. Result: 12 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 2, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 3, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 4, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 5, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 6, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 7, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 10 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 8, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 9, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 10, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 11, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor

Note: Exotics that I got are sold to TP to buy more rare greatswords. But after 11 tries of no precursor, I said what the heck and use all my leftover exotics to mystic forge as well.

Then the final straw…

Set 12, 32 Exotic Greatswords, (unknown price). Result: Even more exotics to mf, 0 Precursor

Summary

No of Sets: 12 sets within 1 day!
Total gold spent: 552g
Rare Swords: 1760 (incl, rare sword you get from MFing 4 of it)
Combine Count: 440 combines
*Result: * Emotionally damaging / disheartening (LOL! But no kidding!). It’s like going to casino with a lot of cash in hand and then go home empty handed.

Lesson learned: Mystic forge can get you rich sometimes or consumes all your hardwork. Learn when to stop. You don’t wanna get lose interest in this superb game after all. Like I said, I did this so you don’t have to.

Hope I helped the community with this information in one way or another.

But just remember…Vegas loves you and wants you back.

The saddest thing about all this (imho) is the fact that the OP is not any closer to getting a precursor than he was before. Those 440 tries literally did him no good at all. If anything he’s further away than he was because now he’s broke.

It’s a little troubling that someone could spend that much time and money attempting to get a precursor and actually end up further away than when they started, but such is the nature of RNG.

It is incredibly disheartening to see this and that there is no justification for it whatsoever.
the gold flushed down the mystic toilet is truly epic.
In one spin you get rich or die trying truly horrible mechanic for what is the most epic of weapons.

im amazed at how people are completely brain washed by stupid precursors and legendary weps in general. Forget they’re in the game and you will have more fun playing it.

Anet doesn’t care about this

They don’t care about you or your horrible luck with the Mystic Forge

They don’t care about players being punished by diminishing returns, that was enacted to “fight bots”.

They don’t care about horrible drop rates and horrible RNG

They don’t care that you fight veterans and champions and get zero drops

If you want proof, go look at that sticky thread about perceived drops rates and notice that there is zero feedback from the devs, zero feedback on the hundreds of posts before they were “merged” or deleted by mods.

Go ahead and delete this post to cover up the problem even more

I wish i would have kept track before last night. I put 144 rare GS’s in last night and got 10 exo’s, then used those 10 exo’s in the toilet as well. 0 precursors. I’ve probably put close to 500 in total doing about 30 or so a week for about 1.5 months, but i only started keeping track last night.

It shouldn’t even be possible for someone to spend that much money and time and not receive a precursor. People who work hard in the game shouldn’t go home empty handed. There needs to be a guaranteed way to receive a precursor, even if it’s expensive and time consuming. Legendaries should be a guaranteed reward.

Indeed the system seems totally broken… I have thrown around 1300 lvl 80 rare bows into the forge and am yet to see a precursor..

But hey, RNG is RNG.

I dont understand how people can moan about playing the Mystic Lottery! The idea is that you have two choices with obtaining a precursor- save your gold and buy one or purchase a lottery ticket with a tiny chance of winning. This chance will more than likely mean you spend a lot more than actually buying the thing, but COULD mean you spend less.

There’s only one real winner in gambling in real life and its certainly not you. If you were guaranteed to get, say, Dusk after spending 400m on rares/exotics and Dusk costs 400m on the TP(ive not checked the price in a while!) then EVERYONE will gamble to get it because youre guaranteed to spend the same/less than its ‘worth’.

I like RNG and always will. I gamble when I want to have a little fun and more often than not I lose gold but its the thrill of gambling that makes it worth it. When I dont think I will get that thrill I just save/sell the items and take away the gamble. The only exception to this was when I bought 14k Halloween bags aiming to make a profit after the event only to see prices plummet. I needed the space on my alt so decided to open them all and write off the 20g investment. 14k bags in I got the endless tonic but it wouldntve mattered either way.

Chamone.6890:

Ouch, looks like they’ve reduced the chances of getting a precursor even more then. Used to be that 500g+ on rares would pretty much assure you of one.

Thank you for sharing your pain with us.

Anet. Please fix precursors. There is no reason for anything to cost 500G on the trade post.

What was intended as a small step on the road to a Legendary has become the whole journey. Compared with getting a Precursor, all the other stuff you need to craft one is insignificant.

RNG is a terrible way to hand out the best rewards in the game, please reconsider this as a strategy.

I think they fix the RNG for mystic clover too. Yesterday, I got 0 mystic clover out of 5 tries on 10 mystic clover recipe. I used to get at least 10 clovers out of 5 tries, now that luck is gone down the toilet too. sigh