(edited by Evalia.7103)
(deleted - old post)
Sad that no one checked the maths of the original post. Without even digging deep into the post the money spent vs the return is not reported. 662 gold spent on buying rares from the TP, and op stated he then sold all exotics back to tp. A conservative (very conservative) estimate on sales of the exotics would be about 450 gold (with a very low average of 6 gold per exotic or so, if it were a named exotic, could be upwards of 100) That would put money spent at around 200 gold, not the 552 stated. Also not taking into account any rares that may have also been returned on any combines, saving them from being bought. If just two of the exotics were named, or if a few were of above average quality, this would in turn have netted a net gain instead of loss. All besides of which doesn’t take into account the making your own rares instead of buying them.
And this is just casually looking at the OP.
I’m amazed ANET thinks this is a good system in the first place.
Let’s be bold here. They had years to work on GW2. In the years of working on this game, not once did it occur this is a stupid idea to make such a horrible RNG simply to start the endgame?
ArenaNet’s “vision” for an engaging and long lasting end game is RNG and calendar gating. They don’t want you to play how you want to play and be reasonably rewarded for that, they are creating hoops for you to jump through so that you log in daily (laurels and pristine relics) and they are making everything else so difficult to obtain, you have to either farm for ages to buy them or gamble away your sanity on RNG grinds that would make a F2P Korean MMO blush.
If you were able to log in, run the content you wanted to run and earn the gear that you wanted to earn (knowing from the start exactly how to attain it with a guarantee) you might play for as long as you want, earn your gear and then not feel pressure or dissatisfaction keeping you around.
Sad that no one checked the maths of the original post. Without even digging deep into the post the money spent vs the return is not reported. 662 gold spent on buying rares from the TP, and op stated he then sold all exotics back to tp. A conservative (very conservative) estimate on sales of the exotics would be about 450 gold (with a very low average of 6 gold per exotic or so, if it were a named exotic, could be upwards of 100) That would put money spent at around 200 gold, not the 552 stated. Also not taking into account any rares that may have also been returned on any combines, saving them from being bought. If just two of the exotics were named, or if a few were of above average quality, this would in turn have netted a net gain instead of loss. All besides of which doesn’t take into account the making your own rares instead of buying them.
And this is just casually looking at the OP.
And yet, NO precursor for 552g. Cheers for the Blessed Mystic Toilet.
@Edit
No seriously, I hope they bring a DECENT challenge to this 1/4 of the legendary with the elusive Scavenger Hunt, it is their chance to show some respect to their playerbase; if something is very difficult to attain, it must be difficult not grindy, something grindy ISN’T difficult… omg it’s just grindy, they are not SYNONYMS.
And please, don’t even start it if it’s going to be buggy or squishy (like Simin in Arah p4).
(edited by Valento.9852)
Sad that no one checked the maths of the original post. Without even digging deep into the post the money spent vs the return is not reported. 662 gold spent on buying rares from the TP, and op stated he then sold all exotics back to tp. A conservative (very conservative) estimate on sales of the exotics would be about 450 gold (with a very low average of 6 gold per exotic or so, if it were a named exotic, could be upwards of 100) That would put money spent at around 200 gold, not the 552 stated. Also not taking into account any rares that may have also been returned on any combines, saving them from being bought. If just two of the exotics were named, or if a few were of above average quality, this would in turn have netted a net gain instead of loss. All besides of which doesn’t take into account the making your own rares instead of buying them.
And this is just casually looking at the OP.
And yet, NO precursor for 552g. Cheers for the Blessed Mystic Toilet.
@Edit
No seriously, I hope they bring a DECENT challenge to this 1/4 of the legendary with the elusive Scavenger Hunt, it is their chance to show some respect to their playerbase; if something is very difficult to attain, it must be difficult not grindy, something grindy ISN’T difficult… omg it’s just grindy, they are not SYNONYMS.
And please, don’t even start it if it’s going to be buggy or squishy (like Simin in Arah p4).
As stated in my post, he would not in fact have spent 552 gold, and most likely made gold on the Mystic Forge. If you are losing money to the Mystic Forge, all you have to do is take a step back, do some research, and make it work for you.
It’s luck plain and simple. I put in 4 rares last week and got dawn myself and was flabbergasted. I did it mostly as a joke hoping at best to get a 3g or so exotic and lucked out. It’s not a law of averages. Ex. If there was a .2% chance to get a precursor it will always be a .2% chance. Every. Single. Time.
To the OP, yea that’s horrible, sorry you lost out. To everyone else learn from his mistake. 552g? With that much I’d have just kept saving till I could have bought it out right it is by far cheaper.
the mostly expensive precursor on my server cost 500 gold so ye
just save up money and buy it
“What you wish for may not be what she wishes for.” – Skull Knight
I absolutely lost interest. I had to much time and played too much regardless, mostly mind numbing grind. In the end, this system is horrible and, frankly, antiquated. It’s not only bad design, it’s a lazy design.
I only followed up because I happened to see the post on reddit’s front pages and it deserves bad press.
They took this design directly from NcSoft’s MMO Aion. For the Miragent armour set there was one piece that also required a big crafting RNG element that drove people nuts.
A lot ofpeople left because of that RNG….so it makes sense Anet wanted to use this right?
It’s a game forum. The truth is not to be found here.
Hail! Science! I’m blinded! Which way did she go?
/thumbsup for scientific thread because “she blinded me with science.”
I finally tried the MForge about the time the scavenger hunt idea was announced, but soon afterwards gave up in order to preserve sanity. (about 40 tries with rank 80 rare staves; got 2 named, lots of rares, several exotics. imho, simply not a fun gameplay mechanism/process/aspect. PacMan is rolling in his grave.)
…certain Gifts for Legendary require super duper rare materials to make; multiple Gifts… why not a specific recipe with Gifts and something to make a Precursor??? I like the scavenger hunt completion to get a precursor idea better though. Although, if the scavenger hunt can result in a precursor that I don’t want… /slamfaceintowall&neverplayanymmoagain
Meanwhile, I dislike the legendary shortbow, dagger, and focus, and am hoping for more skins (not having to be legendary). Not excited about staff, but thought I’d try for one anyways.
(edited by Zapan.7460)
Phew. I got my Dawn out of a TA Dungeon Chest. Take note : “I have no proof. But i have my Sunrise yesterday.” at the same day i got my Sunrise, The Colossus POP out of the CoF P1 Explore Mode Last Boss Treasure Chest.
P.S Sorry if i didn’t record it after i got it. I was too shocked. If you tell me this is a lie well i have no intention of lying. I encourage all of you to do Dungeons. You might get your Precursor.
The Precursor comes to those who least expect it – Idlix Delacroix.
We have the people that seem to defend this, because it lines up with typical gambling odds. What is so legendary about winning the lottery?
Most of “Burger Time”’s bad mechanics were better than this crap.
Thank you so much for posting these results. I was just thinking this morning that I hadn’t been playing with the Mystic Forge yet so I should give it a try. Now I see that I would be wasting my time (and resources).
On this topic, I hate the typical MMO RNG. I think that it stinks that some people can try something sometimes hundreds of times and still not acheive the result they are looking for. In the Real World, if you do any kind of crafting you don’t fail hundreds of times. Its just stupid. There should be a point at which you are guaranteed to eventually get what you want – even if it is after 200 tries or whatever. Then at least you would know that you’re not wasting your time and resources.
it’s this luck based mystic toilet that we’re all so sick of flushing our money down. -Salamol
I tried the MF a couple times for weapons and promptly stopped. I was fresh enough from D3 and “crafting” there to notice a losing proposition when I saw one. There is a good reason why financial advisors don’t recommend buying lottery tickets to increase wealth and certainly wouldn’t advise just buying more to increase your chances. The same goes with in-game versions of the same mechanic. Sure, there will be occasional winners, but the chances are it won’t be you.
There is a guranteed way:
The easy, conveniently provided solution to low-odds RNG is just to buy gems, convert them to gold, and purchase your precursor (or even Legendary!) on the Trading Post.
Things that make ya go “hmmmmmmmm….”
Except for the fact that a lot of the precursors have doubled in price on the TP since the Dev’s said that the price for them before the Nov patch was way to high..
That’s exactly my point.
Problem: Grind your kitten off with RNG.
Solution: Spend real money in the gem store!They’re not in a hurry to bring prices down. It’s been what, 3 months since the Nov patch? They’re making bank from a few individuals who have the real life money to just buy whatever they want in game. I don’t really think anyone else enters into the equation.
Disagree? Then why is it so bleeding hard to get a precursor? Why is the only guaranteed way to spend money on it? Just an innocent mistake?
Edit: spelling
The constant “gem store” excuse is tiring. Take a look at any of the economics behind it and it’s immediately clear that the gem store has absolutely nothing to do with the situation with precursors. Any developer who makes a game with in game purchases knows that all the money in the market is in small purchases. Sure, there might be a few dozen or even few hundred people willing to pay the $1000+ it would cost to buy a legendary, but there’s very little money in that. If Anet wanted to monetize legendaries, they’d do it with T6 mats or lodestones. “Rare Material Chest – 125 gems for 1 or 450 gems for 5, contains 2 random cores or lodestones.” That would be significantly more profitable than the system people constantly accuse of being an attempt to monetize legendaries. Heck, there’s people on this forum who have explicitly asked that such a thing be added.
I don’t know I already knew 6-7 commanders bought their symbols threw gems on Yak’s Bend and that was in the first month of the game. Come back a few months later i find out 2 of those people who i still talk to actually bought their way threw a legendary with gems. These people aren’t rich either they are people who have tons of time on their hands and nothing else to do with it but to play guild wars 2 so they sink tons of their profit into this game.
If i was still playing the game consistently i could probably spend time finding a ton of people who bought gems in high amounts to pay for in game items. Also it should be made clear that i didn’t seek out these people they were friends/acquaintances i met if the first month of game when i was really into it nowadays i just play with RL friends.
There is a good reason why financial advisors don’t recommend buying lottery tickets to increase wealth and certainly wouldn’t advise just buying more to increase your chances.
Yet financial advisors recommend investing in the stock market. It’s exactly the same except for one difference: the stock market has positive expectation and the lottery has negative expectation. I guarantee that if playing the lottery were profitable, regardless of the randomness, they would recommend doing it. In fact there would be a bunch of hedge funds that pool money to buy tickets.
The same goes with in-game versions of the same mechanic. Sure, there will be occasional winners, but the chances are it won’t be you.
It’s not the same, because it’s likely that the MF provides a positive expectation in the long-term. If you could pool enough money and do say, a million combines you could come out with a nice profit. Or not, we don’t know. But just because the short term results went against you doesn’t mean it’s a bad bet.
This kind of thinking is why so many idiots pull their money out of the stock market when stocks haven’t been doing well for the last few years.
There are much bigger chance to invent time travel machine, travel back in the past, stop Americans to nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki, kill Adolf H., save the World and become new son of God, the Savior – rather then get precursor from mystic forge.
Edit: This IS NOT trolling, it’s simply the truth. Sorry.
Nooooooooo you cannot say that.. Didn’t you notice that drop on precursor is “increased”
Funny. Somewhere else in a different server, someone got a precursor by dropping 4 rares GS into Mythic Forge….
^ true story.
feel free to donate those weapons to me
I’ll probably pay off before the forge does
Xiro, High Five Warriors [HFW], Jade Quarry
All this hooplah over the precursor, and it’s still just one of many pieces required for a legendary.
My condolences to the OP, but from his work, he has confirmed that the chance of getting an exotic from flushing 4 rares is roughly 20%. So if you want to expect a profit from flushing the toilet, the average sale prices of the higher-tier item needs to be about 20 times (4x at 1/5 chance) the buy price of a single lower-tier item.
Here, if we assume that there is 0% chance of getting a precursor, then the average sell order price of exotic greatswords is about 4.7 gold. Discounting 10% to account for the likely actual sales price, and apply the 20x rule, it means that the rare greatsword has to be bought at below 21 silver to be able to expect a profit.
If we assume that there is a 0.1% chance that an exotic would be a precursor, then on average, you will need to flush 5000 times with rares to be able to get a precursor. Even if the chance is 1%, it would still take an average of 500 flushes. OP needs to get friendly with Mr. Clean.
I don’t understand why we get two extremes of the RNG spectrum; either guaranteed through some sort of token currency, or <0.1% drop rates. What happened to killing a dungeon boss and having a 20-30% chance at a particular item off his short list of drops?
There is a good reason why financial advisors don’t recommend buying lottery tickets to increase wealth and certainly wouldn’t advise just buying more to increase your chances.
Ha.
Yet financial advisors recommend investing in the stock market. It’s exactly the same except for one difference:
No it’s not. I’ll eat the infraction just to ask, are you stupid?
In fact there would be a bunch of hedge funds that pool money to buy tickets.
Wasn’t a hedge fund, but it’s already happened, and it was promptly outlawed.
(edited by Ansultares.1567)
90g on GS, only 7 exotic, 0 precursor
100 g on staves = 5 exotic , 0 precursor
i think exist some DR in this mystic toilet.
(edited by Crusan.1639)
Sad that no one checked the maths of the original post. Without even digging deep into the post the money spent vs the return is not reported. 662 gold spent on buying rares from the TP, and op stated he then sold all exotics back to tp. A conservative (very conservative) estimate on sales of the exotics would be about 450 gold (with a very low average of 6 gold per exotic or so, if it were a named exotic, could be upwards of 100) That would put money spent at around 200 gold, not the 552 stated. Also not taking into account any rares that may have also been returned on any combines, saving them from being bought. If just two of the exotics were named, or if a few were of above average quality, this would in turn have netted a net gain instead of loss. All besides of which doesn’t take into account the making your own rares instead of buying them.
And this is just casually looking at the OP.
And yet, NO precursor for 552g. Cheers for the Blessed Mystic Toilet.
@Edit
No seriously, I hope they bring a DECENT challenge to this 1/4 of the legendary with the elusive Scavenger Hunt, it is their chance to show some respect to their playerbase; if something is very difficult to attain, it must be difficult not grindy, something grindy ISN’T difficult… omg it’s just grindy, they are not SYNONYMS.
And please, don’t even start it if it’s going to be buggy or squishy (like Simin in Arah p4).
Point is it isn’t for 552g, the OP lost a lot less and the thread title is clearly alarmist.
Secondly using rares SINCE THEY FIXED THAT EXPLOIT is beyond stupid since rares have the lowest chances to result in a precursor. Less than 100 of his forges resulted in an exotic…should every 100 forges that result in an exotic be a precursor? No.
In the last month and a bit I’ve made 8 precursors at a significant profit (ie I started with 130ish gold and now have over 2k gold) there are ways to make precursors and the method in this post isn’t it at all.
Let us buy vendor mats (eg spools of thread) in 250 stacks, end the excessive clicking.
every time I combine high level stuff I end up with that stupid chaos gun, and I can’t even use it. If I combine 4 of those i get even worse stuff.
IMHO you can feel more and more NCSoft influence as time goes by. Waiting for 30 day mini pets and mounts.
There would be nothing wrong if the precursor’s chances were significantly raised at MF to obtain.
Even a solid 1% will be pretty good and keep the weapon over 200g worth.
1+1 = potato
I really wish people would stop saying it’s luck. It’s not luck. Mathematically it doesn’t exist. Also, I really wish people would stop saying welcome to RNG because it’s not entirely random either, mankind hasn’t discovered the equation for complete randomness, so games like these certainly don’t use that equation and they always have a bias of +- according to what they want to balance.
This is the key reason why I started calling the mystic forge “the mystic toilet” because you pretty much flush all of your mats down the toilet when you use it.
Balance Team: Please Fix Mine Toolbelt Positioning!
All this hooplah over the precursor, and it’s still just one of many pieces required for a legendary.
Because there are many and yes at this point it is MANY people that only need the precursor to finish their legendary. I have had Gift of Fortune, Gift of Twilight and Gift of Mastery sitting in my bank for well over 2 months.
Like many after seeing that I could not get ahead of the inflation curve to out right buy Dusk I took a few hundred shots at the Mystic Joke and got nothing but a bad taste in my mouth for this game. Happy to report I haven’t logged in since then.
A Yak since headstart. [herm]
I wouldn’t be surprised if Diminishing Returns affects the Mystic Forge.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Diminishing Returns affects the Mystic Forge.
I would not doubt that at all. I mean we were told that DR didn’t effect chests, yet semi-recently we were told that it actually does effect dragon chests.
Serenity now~Insanity later
Scavenger Hunt please Anet.