population and state of gw2
“But we have already established GW2 has more people playing than Black Ops 2 (PC) and Diablo 3 looking at data from two separate data sets (Steam and Xfire). What more do people want?”
There’s a steam metric for GW2? I tried finding it a few days ago and couldn’t as steam did not sell it – steam would be a much better way of identifying trends then XFire.
That said, the TP has picked up but more on sells then buys, the price of stuff is rising fairly alarmingly. No one is farming orr, the prices of items from orr is rising. The 2nd wave of bots seems to be around to 50-70 zone due to the oversupply of those items.
LA is very busy, but due to the gold spam I think 5-10% of people there might be gold sellers. Everyone else is on FotM farming, and my wait on JQ is around 1-2 minutes at the most from overflow.
I’d say we have regulars farming gear, who will leave once they have all the gear. Newbies, of which 90% will leave once they hit end game (either due to boredom or gear grind), and the other 10% will join the gear grind (though may or may not get discouraged based on the gated aspect, no idea here).
The only thing I really will say it the triple whamie of friend trial, discount a week after all friends bought the game, and the large gemstore discout was either meant to try to addict people or as a very extreme cash grab.
the lost shores update is why, a fragmented player base (due to everyone being at different difficulty settings for the dungeon), and angry disenchanted former players cause of ascended gear. Those are your top two reasons.
Getting Lion’s Arch overflow all the time now.
You do realize that the reason you get LA overflow is because that is where the entrance to FotM is.
LA is the only place with reliable population clusters.
80 members from start in guild. Now only 2 are active.
Why dont they just move some of the kitten high level nodes to the low level maps or some of the quests.. This stupid old idea of having maps and content move with the level kills all low level areas in all MMOs .. I thought this was suppose to be a MMO that changed things!!!
Population is fine.
There are at least 4-5 servers that are almost full 24/7. And the rest are at the HIGH status.
LA is always overflow for at least 5-10 minutes each time I login.
There are still people over at AC, COF etc etc.
The game is not dying its still going strong.
What people need to realize however is that its been out for 3 months already. Which means most players are in high level areas and not spread across the maps…. why would they be after all? I mean there is nothing to do on old maps. This was true even before Fractals of the Mists came to be. The only places that had people were dragon events, AC, COF, and other dungeons like that, ORR for events, and of course Lions Arch has always been packed. Every now and then you might run into new players out leveling or someones alt…. or someone getting 100% map completion, or farming mats…. but other then that, not sure why people expect maps to be full…..
Its 10am mountain time here this Monday morning…. 7 servers are Full…. not sure how that translates to a population drop.
(edited by Namu.5712)
Population is fine.
There are at least 4-5 servers that are almost full 24/7. And the rest are at the HIGH status.
LA is always overflow for at least 5-10 minutes each time I login.
There are still people over at AC, COF etc etc.
The game is not dying its still going strong.
What people need to realize however is that its been out for 3 months already. Which means most players are in high level areas and not spread across the maps…. why would they be after all? I mean there is nothing to do on old maps. This was true even before Fractals of the Mists came to be. The only places that had people were dragon events, AC, COF, and other dungeons like that, ORR for events, and of course Lions Arch has always been packed. Every now and then you might run into new players out leveling or someones alt…. or someone getting 100% map completion, or farming mats…. but other then that, not sure why people expect maps to be full…..
Its 10am mountain time here this Monday morning…. 7 servers are Full…. not sure how that translates to a population drop.
Exactly, my level 80 experience has been Orr and WvW. I haven’t gone anywhere else, as there was no real reason to.
Population is fine.
There are at least 4-5 servers that are almost full 24/7. And the rest are at the HIGH status.
LA is always overflow for at least 5-10 minutes each time I login.
There are still people over at AC, COF etc etc.
The game is not dying its still going strong.
What people need to realize however is that its been out for 3 months already. Which means most players are in high level areas and not spread across the maps…. why would they be after all? I mean there is nothing to do on old maps. This was true even before Fractals of the Mists came to be. The only places that had people were dragon events, AC, COF, and other dungeons like that, ORR for events, and of course Lions Arch has always been packed. Every now and then you might run into new players out leveling or someones alt…. or someone getting 100% map completion, or farming mats…. but other then that, not sure why people expect maps to be full…..
Its 10am mountain time here this Monday morning…. 7 servers are Full…. not sure how that translates to a population drop.
Exactly, my level 80 experience has been Orr and WvW. I haven’t gone anywhere else, as there was no real reason to.
Oh right totally forgot about Wv3.
Many people don’t even level out in the world they just do WvW nonstop every time they login from level 2 to 80… never leaving lions arch and the WvW area… and as you say…. there is a very large amount of people that everyone doesn’t see in those WvW maps.
Population is fine.
There are at least 4-5 servers that are almost full 24/7. And the rest are at the HIGH status.
LA is always overflow for at least 5-10 minutes each time I login.
There are still people over at AC, COF etc etc.
The game is not dying its still going strong.
What people need to realize however is that its been out for 3 months already. Which means most players are in high level areas and not spread across the maps…. why would they be after all? I mean there is nothing to do on old maps. This was true even before Fractals of the Mists came to be. The only places that had people were dragon events, AC, COF, and other dungeons like that, ORR for events, and of course Lions Arch has always been packed. Every now and then you might run into new players out leveling or someones alt…. or someone getting 100% map completion, or farming mats…. but other then that, not sure why people expect maps to be full…..
Its 10am mountain time here this Monday morning…. 7 servers are Full…. not sure how that translates to a population drop.
Exactly, my level 80 experience has been Orr and WvW. I haven’t gone anywhere else, as there was no real reason to.
Oh right totally forgot about Wv3.
Many people don’t even level out in the world they just do WvW nonstop every time they login from level 2 to 80… never leaving lions arch and the WvW area… and as you say…. there is a very large amount of people that everyone doesn’t see in those WvW maps.
I actually leveled my character in WvW for about 80% of my playing time, I left only to do my personal story to get some missing gear (ie back piece as the personal story was the only way to get it at the time, and a free golem at completion) and to get some skill points some of the time. I can’t be bothered to level an alt, and if I do level my alt warrior (who is only level 5) it’d likely still be in WvW.
What grind? Seriously, this game has NO grinds compared to other MMO’s. It has NO gear threadmill worth mentioning. And still people keep referring to this as a WoW clone. I seriously doubt those players played WoW on a raiding level, where a tedious grind every day was required to be even prepared).
This game is very easy going, you can get by perfectly without 1 serious grind.
You can do grinds (for legendaries for example) but that’s your own choice: it’s optional.
You grind instances to get tokens for cosmetic gear. Have you seen what they call legendary, biggest grind I have seen in any MMO. This game has huge grind and it just got a lot worse. Before you had diversity of the world. Now from what I hear you grind one instance over and over and over and over.
If you had to grind everyday in WoW to be prepared you were doing it wrong, sorry. They daily quests that they have now sure if you want to bang out every one your going to be super tired and it will take forever. But that’s not what your supposed to do. If your smart you only do a couple per day to have the max effect.
Since not playing GW2 anymore I leveled up a hunter upon dinging 90 I didn’t need to grind out my 450 item. I walked in to scenario and killed 5 bosses with a friend. No grind at all. I enjoy playing rated and unrated battlegrounds. Will be doing them regardless because I like doing them kinda like WvW. I will over time get the best gear in the game through doing my PvP. I don’t have have grind anything. However if I wanted to I could grind PvE stuff out.
So right now WoW has as much or as little grind as a person wants. Kinda sounds a lot better then GW2 at the moment. I think 10 mil monthly subs confirms it. Bringing in monthly 25% more then GW2s total box sales each month. The numbers have it.
Its not dying, but it wont have a high number playerbase. Its kinda like SWToR though before GW2, people are waiting for a better mmo.
Problem is, there arent any better mmo comming out in the near future, and none of the ones beeing developed looks that promising.
Population is fine.
There are at least 4-5 servers that are almost full 24/7. And the rest are at the HIGH status.
LA is always overflow for at least 5-10 minutes each time I login.
There are still people over at AC, COF etc etc.
The game is not dying its still going strong.
What people need to realize however is that its been out for 3 months already. Which means most players are in high level areas and not spread across the maps…. why would they be after all? I mean there is nothing to do on old maps. This was true even before Fractals of the Mists came to be. The only places that had people were dragon events, AC, COF, and other dungeons like that, ORR for events, and of course Lions Arch has always been packed. Every now and then you might run into new players out leveling or someones alt…. or someone getting 100% map completion, or farming mats…. but other then that, not sure why people expect maps to be full…..
Its 10am mountain time here this Monday morning…. 7 servers are Full…. not sure how that translates to a population drop.
You have just summed up whats wrong with every MMO design system.. Why the feck do they force (pretty much) people to move along to a final destination.. Its always been a problem and unless you bought the game on day one it will always be a problem..
Yet its one that could be so easily solved
Its not dying, but it wont have a high number playerbase. Its kinda like SWToR though before GW2, people are waiting for a better mmo.
Problem is, there arent any better mmo comming out in the near future, and none of the ones beeing developed looks that promising.
True but at least this ones free .. Well up to a point anyway
With no WvW or PvP progression my guild of 30 quit and i’ve read from other forums that guilds of 50+ has quit cause of this also. This game had so much promise but unfortunately in beta the devs didn’t really listen to certain players like the pvp players. They listed tonnes of problems that would occur and fixes that could avoid them but when the game came out all those problems remained and funny enough all those problems happened then made loads of players quit pretty quickly.
Since i came to this game just to do WvW, the beta was fun due to low numbers testing it, it had that Daoc feel of group vs group and as most groups were guild groups so it also had that Guild Wars feel. Game came out, all that beta love had been lost, the name “Guild Wars” does not even come into the game at all. As testers we did all agree in one thing, maps were too small and would attract Zerging to rule, look what happened, the zerg rules. So many things were listed and so many of them had a massive effect on the outcome of the game which is such a pitty, the game was good and just needed more time to make it better and had someone who listened to players who have spent many years players good mmo’s.
No the game probably isn’t dying yet but when the Elder Scrolls Online comes out that will have a massive effect on the player population since that game already says it has progression in it so all the old Daoc lovers, wow arena players, Warhammer players etc will probably go there.
Its a large enough sample size to be some what representative of popularity. League of Legends is the most played game in the world and that is represented on there. Tons of people still play the original Modern Warfare and that’s on there. Obviously you can accurately predict a trend that GW2 being in the top 5 with games like those and Diablo 3, probably means GW2 is still pretty popular.
Looking at Steam stats DOTA 2 has around 170,000-200,000 players a day and that’s good enough for 10 on Xfire so its safe to say that GW2 sees more then that in a day since its sitting at 5 on Xfire.
Personally I barely play it. I actually started to get bored after the first few beta weekends lol but still bought the game knowing full well I probably would only last a month or two. That doesn’t mean that others aren’t playing it and its not fun though. I just would rather they let us do skill and ability hunting for progression like GW1 rather than gear grind.
Most people I’ve seen on xfire play multiple games. Which naturally results in them playing less of xxx game. It’s a sample, but it is a biased one. A couple years ago some youth political group wanted to make marijuana legal in Austria. They did a survey and, what do you know, based on their sample 90% of the population agreed with it. How did that happen? Easy, they only asked students. They picked their sample from a part of the population prone to be biased and got their results. The opposing group retaliated by going to retirement homes and getting the exact opposite result.
The only people who can provide reliable information are ArenaNet. No surveys or external sites can come even close to the real numbers or the real trend. For all you know, 100 000 people who don’t use xfire returned to the game while 1000 people who do use xfire left.
I had a long post typed up and it got wiped by accident but needless to say. You can represent a population using representatives of personas in the demographic you are testing and it will actually turn out very accurate. By your logic no focus group or user testing or survey would ever be relevant and we know that’s not true, they are very relevant. Your first comment about people playing other games introducing bias makes no sense either.
You either play the game or you don’t. If the data shows you are playing something else instead than that is still an accurate representation of your interest level. If I got 5 games and I am playing them over GW2 than it just means my interest is lower in GW2 than these other games.
your analogy on students is correct but Xfire has millions of users which are game players and the ones represented are owners of GW2 so its actually a accurate demographic of the population and if you notice the trends present on Xfire they DO mirror online gaming trends even Forbes has noted this.
Modern Warfare, Diablo 3, League of Legends are all top played games and this is shown on XFire as well, no one can dispute that, the trends present on Xfire are pretty kitten similar to the reality of online game statistics. When you get a large subset of data like this you get relevance from Xfire by applying the trends on it to what we know from other tracking sites like Steam and press releases by other games. If we know that LoL, Modern Warefare and DOTA2 are some of the most played games in the world online right now and Xfire shows GW2 in the top 5 with those names, you can bet the trend is similar for this game as well.
Xfire doesn’t discriminate you get, young, old , different nationalities and a large amount of users world wide. I’d say it is very representative of the gaming population, and as I said last paragraph it shows in its accurate rankings of highly played games that the sampling is representative. Do Xfire gamers have significantly different habits than non Xfire users? Defining a bias as being Xfire users vs non- X-fire users makes no sense because Xfire users are still representative of the gaming population. That’s like saying a polls data is irrelevant because it only asked online respondents not those that use pencils.
(edited by psyt.9415)
^ unless you can prove there is a large population bias for people who use xfire, it clearly shows a steep decline. And based on random distributions, its very likely correlates to the game pretty closely.
I showed you a large population bias!
When mists of pandaria launched daily play time shot up to 120k just like gw2 did at launch. Today WoW stands at 21k exactly 2x of what Gw2 shows today.
So if such a drop is an indication of decline especially to the level people imply dont you think we’d have heard that WoW subscription went under something like 5m by now? yet on november 7th Blizzard announced subscriptions rose to over 10 million. Xfire on that day showed 14k hours Clearly, without a shred of doubt a decline in Xfire isnt reflected with a decline in players because before MOP WoW was under 9m users
There just is no relation !
Thats also ignoring the fact that the xfire numbers suggests Gw2 has 1/2 the players that WoW has and I am sure if they reached 5m sales we’d have heard about it !
Thats also ignoring the fact that the xfire numbers suggests Gw2 has 1/2 the players that WoW has and I am sure if they reached 5m sales we’d have heard about it !
Well, WoW is in Asia while GW2 is in NA & EU only.
So far
Thats also ignoring the fact that the xfire numbers suggests Gw2 has 1/2 the players that WoW has and I am sure if they reached 5m sales we’d have heard about it !
Well, WoW is in Asia while GW2 is in NA & EU only.
So far
and what xfire doesnt work in asia?
but fine, lets ignore the gw2 is 1/2 the wow population part ! WoW still showed a decline from 120k hrs to 22k hrs with no corrisponding or well lets say negligable corrisponding drop in subs !
^ unless you can prove there is a large population bias for people who use xfire, it clearly shows a steep decline. And based on random distributions, its very likely correlates to the game pretty closely.
I showed you a large population bias!
When mists of pandaria launched daily play time shot up to 120k just like gw2 did at launch. Today WoW stands at 21k exactly 2x of what Gw2 shows today.
So if such a drop is an indication of decline especially to the level people imply dont you think we’d have heard that WoW subscription went under something like 5m by now? yet on november 7th Blizzard announced subscriptions rose to over 10 million. Xfire on that day showed 14k hours Clearly, without a shred of doubt a decline in Xfire isnt reflected with a decline in players because before MOP WoW was under 9m users
There just is no relation !
Thats also ignoring the fact that the xfire numbers suggests Gw2 has 1/2 the players that WoW has and I am sure if they reached 5m sales we’d have heard about it !
You know you need 1 month of subscription to play WoW right? which is why when MOP came out, the subscriptions when up. And you really didn’t point to any sample or population Bias. You didn’t show anything about how xfire users are more likely to stop playing GW2. Which is what is needed to somehow counter the point of a general declining trend.
Boy it makes them nervous when they see how well GW2 is doing
Thats also ignoring the fact that the xfire numbers suggests Gw2 has 1/2 the players that WoW has and I am sure if they reached 5m sales we’d have heard about it !
Well, WoW is in Asia while GW2 is in NA & EU only.
So far
and what xfire doesnt work in asia?
but fine, lets ignore the gw2 is 1/2 the wow population part ! WoW still showed a decline from 120k hrs to 22k hrs with no corrisponding or well lets say negligable corrisponding drop in subs !
I think you may have misunderstood me Galen or maybe I didn’t phrase it correctly.
According to xfire GW2 has half the players that WoW has with only 1/2 the market penetration since it’s not in Asia yet.
It’s feasible to say that GW2 and WoW currently have the same population in NA & EU.
Boy it makes them nervous when they see how well GW2 is doing
I doubt WoW is worried about GW2 Most of the people I came here with are already back and playing and enjoying. But besides that wow is guaranteed a 15 month subscription fee a month regardless of anything they can kinda count on that a GW2 kinda depends on some one buying gems regardless of the numbers playing if no one buys their gems they are losing money every second they stay on line
a lot of people are buying gems.
a LOT.
Boy it makes them nervous when they see how well GW2 is doing
I doubt WoW is worried about GW2 Most of the people I came here with are already back and playing and enjoying. But besides that wow is guaranteed a 15 month subscription fee a month regardless of anything they can kinda count on that a GW2 kinda depends on some one buying gems regardless of the numbers playing if no one buys their gems they are losing money every second they stay on line
Most of the people in my guild came from WoW, maybe 80%.
That’s 200 active people.
Are you saying WoW is better cuz they triple dip? Box + sub fee + cash shop? Most gamers I know are tired of getting ripped off
Boy it makes them nervous when they see how well GW2 is doing
I doubt WoW is worried about GW2 Most of the people I came here with are already back and playing and enjoying. But besides that wow is guaranteed a 15 month subscription fee a month regardless of anything they can kinda count on that a GW2 kinda depends on some one buying gems regardless of the numbers playing if no one buys their gems they are losing money every second they stay on line
Don’t think you understand the economics. Guild Wars 1 ran for years before even having any micro-t store. You can stay afloat solely off box copies… micro-t is just a nice money maker for ANet to really kick things up.
WoW’s $15 a month is completely bogus by the way and barely used towards players whatsoever. That’s just how the fake MMO charges racket had run though, and fortunately a few rare companies believe in honest charges not “monthly just because”
To me it shows a tendency. If ascended gear was usefull for the game, numbers would go up, but they dont, they keep on falling and falling. Simple as that.
That also doesn’t prove that Ascendant gear is a problem.
Looking at the chart, the population was already dropping before the 15th (with some spike upturns), with the biggest upturn corresponding with the 15th.
So… it would appear to me… that GW2 was already having issues prior to it all, which goes to what I was seeing on the forums, where everybody was basically saying… get to 80, turn game off. Nothing to do or see anymore. =/
Wow …. I guess I just got reemed and told …… but you really think a company thats made billions has been going for over 7yrs is worried about GW2 in its current state ….. one word delusional
and has also seen their fair share of competition come and go
(edited by deborah.2068)
According to Xfire, every single game in the top 10 is falling.
Every.
One.
Weird.
So…1:56pm PST on a Wednesday
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9882100/GW2/pop1.jpg
and scrolling down you see three medium…
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9882100/GW2/pop2.jpg
These threads are useless BTW!
(edited by MokahTGS.7850)
these server stats are only counting accounts on each servers.
not actual players logged in at any moment. lol.
otherwise you would see a HUGE difference between day and night time, and clearly there isnt.
these server stats are only counting accounts on each servers.
not actual players logged in at any moment. lol.otherwise you would see a HUGE difference between day and night time, and clearly there isnt.
But they do fluctuate on the time of day.
Many of the FULL servers have high nighttime populations because of WvW – our Aussie & Oceanic players.
I can’t speak for the general population, but I’ve noticed a significant drop in guild activity since the Lost Shores patch. A bunch of people left. What used to be a lively, talkative guild is now virtually dead. And from what I’ve read on this forum, the same has happened to other guilds as well. Make of that what you will.
-NaughtyProwler.8653
According to Xfire, every single game in the top 10 is falling.
Every.
One.
Except they’re not? Did you even look?
It isn’t dying, but it did suddenly become a completely different game (overnight, no less) than what a lot of players signed up for, so they are moving on to other games.
GW2 was a niche game that threw its niche out the window in order to try to be more mainstream. Of course there is going to be a loss of players from doing so. But its a gamble. All we can do is wait and see if that gamble pays off in the way they wanted it to and, draws in more WoW crowd players than they lost in GW1 players.
According to Xfire, every single game in the top 10 is falling.
Every.
One.Except they’re not? Did you even look?
I did, did you?
All the games have weekend spikes but week over week they all are falling.
Indicates fewer people using xfire.
Everywhere I go the game is packed. Starting zones, Lion’s Arch, WvW, dragon events. Just finished doing a Claw of Jormag in Frostgorge, there was over a hundred people there.
There’s a couple zones that don’t get much traffic – places like Iron Marches or Brisban Wildlands. Some more world boss events (with timers please <3 ) would fix that right up
just finished farming Orr for omnoms and Ori out of the entire zone the whole hour i was there, everything was taken over by the enemy accept for two spots.
It’s really not just the dungeon, going to Orr for some classes is just way too troublesome.
I went back to SW:ToR LOL.
Just here helping my son complete his toon to 80 then we’re done.
Xfire Top MMO’s: (And there are sizable gaps between each)
1. WoW
2. GW2
3. SWTOR
4. Plantetside 2
5. Aion
6. LOTRO
7. Eve
I believe Xfire data is an accurate way to see the trends. Like political polls, they don’t have to count everyone to get within a reasonable #.
I prefer to look at raptr for data since people are actually using it unlike xfire, for various games, not just 4-6.
Verdict? GW 2 isn’t doing good, at all.
In the last 30 days it gathered 324,764 hours, with a total of 1,912,928 hours since release, it’s an outrageous decline rate, way more than the typical “oh game is new, will play a little and just leave the dedicated to still play it for a while”.
The only overflow you get is LA because of most dungeon fans are in LA now, for the fractals. One step out of LA, even in the most popular zones next to LA, hardly any zergs now, even in prime time. In prime time of weekends, you may not see the differences. But any other time, you will be surprised that you may start a Centaur invasion event solo, gradually people will join you but still it may ends up like only 5-6 players only to kill the champion.
There are still many players keep playing with inertia, and GW2 is lucky because it is the last big MMO title released in 2012. The WoW and Rift expansion has less impact than any new competitive MMOs, although I am constantly getting the urge to go back to WoW since WotlK whenever I saw some terrible imblances or bugs that I saw 3 months ago exactly.
For now, I am reluctant to buy any more gems because their ignorance to bugs and imbalances and suggestions has made me lose my faith. No improvement, no more support. Adding new contents instead of improving current contents makes me feel that they are only interested in attracting new players, instead of pleasing existing players. This is the Korean F2P MMO style which I hate most.
When a game releases, there is a huge influx of people. Month or two later, people decide they they don’t like the game or finished the story line and decide to quit. People usually go to higher level areas, or what ever yields the most rewards…so not many people play the random level maps. The player base declines till it’s almost steady with hardly any influxes/sharp declines until another release happens. The cycle will continue…
50/50 GWAMM x3
I quit how I want
Took this pic this afternoon at around 6pm est. The rest are all high except 2 that are deemed medium in count. I may disagree with the work the developers have been doing (or haven’t been doing) but the game is booming. One of the highest user ratings for an mmo on metacritic this year. Maybe as a whole, people like getting new gear.
Also, all mmos or any online game to date has a natural decline in users over time from release. This is a given.
My server is alive and kicking. Leveling up my level 20s and still doing dungeons on my level 80s, by traveling around the world I can honestly say that I find at least 20 people per zone, having in mind that I see map chat announcing events and players flocking to the event places by decent amount of numbers. The game is far far FAR from dying.
I prefer to look at raptr for data since people are actually using it unlike xfire, for various games, not just 4-6.
Verdict? GW 2 isn’t doing good, at all.
In the last 30 days it gathered 324,764 hours, with a total of 1,912,928 hours since release, it’s an outrageous decline rate, way more than the typical “oh game is new, will play a little and just leave the dedicated to still play it for a while”.
not using raptr at all. How many of all the players do you think put GW2 on an application? 5%?