My *guess* on release date - with "evidence"

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Posted by: Renn.8241

Renn.8241

So I was scrolling through the forums and found a conversation about previous releases – in which Gaile Gray quoted the release dates of all previous games, campaigns and expansion.

She said;

  • Guild Wars: April 28, 2004
  • Guild Wars Factions (second standalone campaign): April 28, 2005
  • Guild Wars Nightfall (third standalone campaign): October 27, 2006
  • Guild Wars: Eye of the North (first and only expansion pack): October 27, 2006
    Then:
  • Guild Wars 2: August 28, 2012

So that’s;
April x2 both on the 28th
October x2 both on the 27th
GW2 August – 28th 2012

Guys, My guess is we are getting the expansion on August 28th 2015 – this gives a reasonable amount of time and makes perfect scene to me.

Thoughts?!

Link to original post
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/hot/It-s-going-to-be-a-long-wait/4724295/quote

~Renn~ Jade Quarry – Norn, – Ranger.

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Posted by: Abdulaziz.1496

Abdulaziz.1496

I agree with you. Besides, they expect to earn much more on Q3-Q4 of 2015.. so I think it’s safe to assume it’s the expansion.
although I’d very much like it earlier

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Posted by: Sebbl.2806

Sebbl.2806

Unfortunately, Gaile made a little slip of the keyboard there. EotN was also released at the end of August, namely August 28, 2007 in NA and three days later in Europe (and not at the very same day as NF). A release of HoT at the end of a month still seems likely, though.

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Posted by: MrTJpwnz.4710

MrTJpwnz.4710

Using this theory would suggest that HoT’s release date was on 28 August 2013.. Wait! Did I miss someting!? :O

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Posted by: Sarie.1630

Sarie.1630

Also agree on a release around the third anniversary.

I have always rather assumed it would be on an anniversary, as they seem to like doing that, and was quite happy with it until the announcement. They seem to be saying that the expansion story continues directly from the end of the last living story. 8 months feels like a very long time to wait for that story to continue.

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Posted by: yanipheonu.5798

yanipheonu.5798

April – August is a very realistic release window for this. XD though of course I’d love it to be sooner, but then again, it should only come out when it’s ready.

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Posted by: Lazaar.9123

Lazaar.9123

Well, I guess i’ll have plenty of time to make sure I have all the characters I want.

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Posted by: Dondarrion.2748

Dondarrion.2748

Then the question becomes… what on earth do we do in between for over half a year?

It’s not like the expansion becomes a free pass to not deliver updates in between, only problem is, story-wise they’ve painted themselves into a corner seeing as HoT picks up just after Ep. 8 of LS2.

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Posted by: lordkrall.7241

lordkrall.7241

Then the question becomes… what on earth do we do in between for over half a year?

It’s not like the expansion becomes a free pass to not deliver updates in between, only problem is, story-wise they’ve painted themselves into a corner seeing as HoT picks up just after Ep. 8 of LS2.

Why not? Every other company seems to have no problems whatsoever not releasing anything for half a year.

There are however rather many things that can be turned on in order to give us something to do:

SAB, Dragonbash, Queens Pavilion, WvW tournaments and so on.

Not to mention the fact that they will have betas for HoT.

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Posted by: wasted.6817

wasted.6817

The demo is in 6 weeks, after that beta will start. Colin or Mike (sorry, i don’t remember which one exactly) said that things will start moving fast after the PAX East (where the demo will be available to play in 6 weeks). Half a year after the demo is not “moving fast”, it’s very super kittening SLOW, especially considering it’s gonna be 3 years by then. And they’ve worked on it for so long now, they said. So, no, none of this mambo jumbo with dates makes any sense to me.

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Posted by: Sarie.1630

Sarie.1630

The demo is in 6 weeks, after that beta will start. Colin or Mike (sorry, i don’t remember which one exactly) said that things will start moving fast after the PAX East (where the demo will be available to play in 6 weeks). Half a year after the demo is not “moving fast”, it’s very super kittening SLOW, especially considering it’s gonna be 3 years by then. And they’ve worked on it for so long now, they said. So, no, none of this mambo jumbo with dates makes any sense to me.

Half a year would be moving “fast” since, if I understand correctly, this expansion has been in the works almost since the base game’s release?

All relative, my friend. o/

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Posted by: Aedelric.1287

Aedelric.1287

Just after my holidays then, that would be great if true as I do not have access to my computer during that time.

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Posted by: Spoj The Second.7680

Spoj The Second.7680

I predict early April-May. Any longer and they will struggle with filler content in the wait for HoT. Plus a demo in 6 weeks suggests its almost ready to put out.

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Posted by: Suburbian.1023

Suburbian.1023

I predict early April-May. Any longer and they will struggle with filler content in the wait for HoT. Plus a demo in 6 weeks suggests its almost ready to put out.

A demo would suggest nothing in my eyes

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Posted by: Mental Paradox.3845

Mental Paradox.3845

THey announced it way too soon imo. I have zero motivation to play now.

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Posted by: Spoj The Second.7680

Spoj The Second.7680

I predict early April-May. Any longer and they will struggle with filler content in the wait for HoT. Plus a demo in 6 weeks suggests its almost ready to put out.

A demo would suggest nothing in my eyes

A demo suggests its in a playable form. As in its mostly done. With only bug fixes and minor additions to go. This has been worked on since release. Not sure why people believe they would announce it over half a year before its ready.

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Posted by: butch.8136

butch.8136

I predict early April-May. Any longer and they will struggle with filler content in the wait for HoT. Plus a demo in 6 weeks suggests its almost ready to put out.

A demo would suggest nothing in my eyes

A demo suggests its in a playable form. As in its mostly done. With only bug fixes and minor additions to go. This has been worked on since release. Not sure why people believe they would announce it over half a year before its ready.

It depends on the demo, kinda. If they only give you 1 zone and the revenant to play with or let you play ‘everything’.

Meh what does it matter. We’ll see in 6 weeks.

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Posted by: Dardstar.3729

Dardstar.3729

Then the question becomes… what on earth do we do in between for over half a year?

It’s not like the expansion becomes a free pass to not deliver updates in between, only problem is, story-wise they’ve painted themselves into a corner seeing as HoT picks up just after Ep. 8 of LS2.

Why not? Every other company seems to have no problems whatsoever not releasing anything for half a year.

There are however rather many things that can be turned on in order to give us something to do:

SAB, Dragonbash, Queens Pavilion, WvW tournaments and so on.

Not to mention the fact that they will have betas for HoT.

Other games’ most recent content is designed with replayability in mind Imagine if, in a game like wow, after you did the most recent raid/content release you were expected to go back to the first couple dungeons to play day-to-day.

In gw2 no one is doing the most current living world patch for 6 months, they are going back to features that have been in the game for ages…

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Posted by: wasted.6817

wasted.6817

Half a year would be moving “fast” since, if I understand correctly, this expansion has been in the works almost since the base game’s release?

Look at it from another angle. If it’s in the works almost since GW2’s release, that means it’s been in development for 2,5 years now, almost. This gotta be something epic scale then, like GW2,5 or something. Did it sound or looked epic in presentation, after dust settled down and wow effect’s gone? Hardly. So i dunno, another half a year (actually more, if you count from now) for what exactly? Whole games being developed in that time frame, so no, another 6 months wait doesn’t make any sense to me. OR. They just haven’t been working all that long on it after all. So, we will see, i really hope it’s April-May, otherwise it’s a major WTF, unless it’s something of epiciest scale, which, for now, it doesn’t look like that.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

My guess with no evidence. Assuming no last minute issues. GW2’s 3rd anniversary.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Dondarrion.2748

Dondarrion.2748

While I need it to be GW1’s 10-year anniversary; Apr 28th.

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Posted by: CaptainVanguard.4925

CaptainVanguard.4925

From the trailer and the assets available to the expansion presently I am going to say May to June. With the Pax Demo being available in only 6 weeks from now, and a potential closed beta coming very soon, it suggests to me they already have quite a few assets already made and are simply in the process of testing/implementing them, rather like EoTM had a beta.

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Posted by: Lothirieth.3408

Lothirieth.3408

Why not? Every other company seems to have no problems whatsoever not releasing anything for half a year.

Very big difference to most of those other companies. New content releases with them often come with content that has great replayability (dungeons or raids for example) that last a heck of a lot longer than the LS which boils down to an epic story line.

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Posted by: Nanashi.6297

Nanashi.6297

Well all I know is they can’t wait too long. The expansion continues the story of Living World S2. If they wait a whole year to release nobody will know about that anymore.

Considering the breaks we had in S2 my first guess was around May/June but somehow that feels really early. I’m not sure if they progressed that far in the development.

(edited by Nanashi.6297)

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Posted by: thefantasticg.3984

thefantasticg.3984

LS was an epic story line? I guess you’re speaking for you own view of it.

I agree with you. Besides, they expect to earn much more on Q3-Q4 of 2015.. so I think it’s safe to assume it’s the expansion.
although I’d very much like it earlier

ANet’s expected earning reports for the 2015 Q3 is really the only thing that could logically be called “evidence” for a release date.

RNG is a bell curve. Better hope you’re on the right side.

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Posted by: butch.8136

butch.8136

LS was an epic story line? I guess you’re speaking for you own view of it.

I agree with you. Besides, they expect to earn much more on Q3-Q4 of 2015.. so I think it’s safe to assume it’s the expansion.
although I’d very much like it earlier

ANet’s expected earning reports for the 2015 Q3 is really the only thing that could logically be called “evidence” for a release date.

Except… It’s not Anet’s expected earning reports. It’s from an investor firm. Their guess is as good as ours.

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Posted by: Gobble D Goop.4081

Gobble D Goop.4081

calling it, May 12th 2015.

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Posted by: thefantasticg.3984

thefantasticg.3984

LS was an epic story line? I guess you’re speaking for you own view of it.

I agree with you. Besides, they expect to earn much more on Q3-Q4 of 2015.. so I think it’s safe to assume it’s the expansion.
although I’d very much like it earlier

ANet’s expected earning reports for the 2015 Q3 is really the only thing that could logically be called “evidence” for a release date.

Except… It’s not Anet’s expected earning reports. It’s from an investor firm. Their guess is as good as ours.

Right, and I would trust the investment firm over kids playing on the forums. They obviously have some reason to have that prediction.

RNG is a bell curve. Better hope you’re on the right side.

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Posted by: lordkrall.7241

lordkrall.7241

Right, and I would trust the investment firm over kids playing on the forums. They obviously have some reason to have that prediction.

And yet said investment firm have been making the same prediction every year since release.

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Posted by: Nanashi.6297

Nanashi.6297

Right, and I would trust the investment firm over kids playing on the forums. They obviously have some reason to have that prediction.

well that’s not wrong but I wouldn’t bet on either of those two.

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Posted by: McWolfy.5924

McWolfy.5924

I hope they will release it for easter.

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Posted by: Jordo.5913

Jordo.5913

I’m going to say around April is when we’ll get it.

If you think about it, it took them 3 months to beta test the entirety of gw2. I believe they’ll only need about a month or two of beta for HoT. And Pax East is Feb 20th. GW1 10th Anniversary is April 28th.

And yes i know about the Q3 earnings, but that is not Anet’s projected, that was some Investor company, who tried to give people who buy and sell stock projections, their guess is as good as ours.

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Posted by: Jackie.1829

Jackie.1829

Projections of Q3 aside, as stated april 28th is the 10th anniversary of GW1. On top of that, most game releases happen on a tuesday (I dont know why, just is, I am sure theres a sale or marketing reason), and april 28th is a tuesday.

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Posted by: Letifer.4360

Letifer.4360

I believe this expansion will be out earlier than that, 1 or 2 months at most.

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Posted by: Arashi Skysunder.9251

Arashi Skysunder.9251

I’m gonna bet on either April 28th or end of May. I don’t see it keeping until August, barring major issues.

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[GW1 summer 2005 until GW2 beta in 2012.]

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Posted by: lujate.5432

lujate.5432

I’m gonna bet on either April 28th or end of May. I don’t see it keeping until August, barring major issues.

I agree, August seems too far.

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Posted by: AmphibianX.7042

AmphibianX.7042

She said;

  • Guild Wars: April 28, 2004
  • Guild Wars Factions (second standalone campaign): April 28, 2005
  • Guild Wars Nightfall (third standalone campaign): October 27, 2006
  • Guild Wars: Eye of the North (first and only expansion pack): October 27, 2006
    Then:
  • Guild Wars 2: August 28, 2012

wait. so Guild Wars Nighfall and Guild Wars Eye of The North came out on the same day? October 27, 2006?

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Posted by: Lazaar.9123

Lazaar.9123

She said;

  • Guild Wars: April 28, 2004
  • Guild Wars Factions (second standalone campaign): April 28, 2005
  • Guild Wars Nightfall (third standalone campaign): October 27, 2006
  • Guild Wars: Eye of the North (first and only expansion pack): October 27, 2006
    Then:
  • Guild Wars 2: August 28, 2012

wait. so Guild Wars Nighfall and Guild Wars Eye of The North came out on the same day? October 27, 2006?

Nay, Gaile just did a bit of a typo.

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Posted by: psizone.8437

psizone.8437

calling it, May 12th 2015.

Yeah, between the end of April and sometime in May sounds more likely considering living story is on hold until release and the gap between living story season 1 and 2 was 4 months.

That would give them a month of beta after PAX East and a few weeks to organise and release.

Any later and they could risk players leaving due to lack of story content. Really, like it or not, could many people really go through 7 months of no living story content because of a late expansion release?

Brotherhood of Blub [blub]

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Posted by: Mo Mo.1947

Mo Mo.1947

Half a year after the demo is not “moving fast”, it’s very super kittening SLOW, especially considering it’s gonna be 3 years by then. And they’ve worked on it for so long now, they said. So, no, none of this mambo jumbo with dates makes any sense to me.

Why do you think there’s been a large dedicated crew working on HoT since the game’s release?

Did you not notice all the other content that has been released in this time since launch? I’m sure they’ve had a portion of the crew working on it for a while but a lot of the crew has been working on all the new stuff we’ve been getting nearly every month.

Since content is only released for a limited time I think many people easily forget how much content they’ve churned out. Hopefully they re-release Living Story Season 1 for replaying soon so people can more easily see everything ANet has been creating over the past couple years.

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Posted by: wasted.6817

wasted.6817

Why do you think there’s been a large dedicated crew working on HoT since the game’s release?

Well, i don’t actually. I have no idea if team working on HoT was large and if they’ve been working ~since release etc. I’am just playing along with this opinion shared by some people that AN must have been working on it for a long time, particularly WP made this point in one of his videos, like some of the devs with big names been silent for a long time (since release basically etc.) For real, who knows, maybe they started to really work on it just, let’s say, a year ago. As for the size, when you think about conventional expansion, it just dwarfs in scope and size what have been released for GW2 during first year, so i dunno how it could affected the expansion development if they then managed to develop S2 and HoT simultaneously, again, doesn’t make sense to me.

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Posted by: Ok I Did It.2854

Ok I Did It.2854

OP

Nightfall came out on October 27, 2006
EotN came out on August 31, 2007

Guess that evidence, just doesn’t weight up.

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Posted by: Lothirieth.3408

Lothirieth.3408

LS was an epic story line? I guess you’re speaking for you own view of it.

It most certainly is when I compare it to other MMOs epic storyline (the overarching series of quests and instances throughout the world to tell the story). I didn’t feel much like repeating those in other games either.

And that investment firm has been predicting an expansion each year since GW2 was released. I’d not trust them in the slightest.

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Posted by: Feothyr.6072

Feothyr.6072

A demo suggests its in a playable form. As in its mostly done. With only bug fixes and minor additions to go.

As much as I’d love to agree with you, the first demo of Guild Wars 2 was playable at gamescom 2010 – almost exactly two years before release.

I do hope HoT will be released end of April but I’m afraid it’s going to be end of August :/

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Posted by: sanedude.9450

sanedude.9450

So I was scrolling through the forums and found a conversation about previous releases – in which Gaile Gray quoted the release dates of all previous games, campaigns and expansion.

She said;

  • Guild Wars: April 28, 2004
  • Guild Wars Factions (second standalone campaign): April 28, 2005
  • Guild Wars Nightfall (third standalone campaign): October 27, 2006
  • Guild Wars: Eye of the North (first and only expansion pack): October 27, 2006
    Then:
  • Guild Wars 2: August 28, 2012

So that’s;
April x2 both on the 28th
October x2 both on the 27th
GW2 August – 28th 2012

Guys, My guess is we are getting the expansion on August 28th 2015 – this gives a reasonable amount of time and makes perfect scene to me.

Thoughts?!

Link to original post
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/hot/It-s-going-to-be-a-long-wait/4724295/quote

Most of her dates are off. Actual dates:

  • Guild Wars: April 28, 2005
  • Guild Wars Factions : April 28, 2006
  • Guild Wars Nightfall : October 27, 2006
  • Guild Wars: Eye of the North : August 28, 2007 (NA)
  • Guild Wars 2: August 28, 2012

(edited by sanedude.9450)