Guild Wars 2

Hello, I’d like to share my thoughts on the Beta Item thing.

Alright, the drop rate is RNG based.
And so is the User Pick system for previous beta.

So is this new system better?
I’d like to think so.

When first beta rolled out, i was pretty bummed i didn’t get picked, and this new system incresead my chances, However after almost a week of no drop my chances where looking grim.

Then it happened, from some random slained creature in Silverwastes i got the portal item.

My mind was blanked with blissful thoughts.

So was it worth it? Yes.
Since now you actually have a chance to affect your chances.
“I’d rather grind for an item, than take my chances getting picked.”

And it is all optional.

In the end of it, I liked this, and if they do this again, I will bring out my MF boosts and farm.

Looking forward to the beta.
~Zid

I bet you say that because of the luck you had. If you were one of the players that is farming for over 60 hours now and still have 0 portal you would be crazy mad.

BTW, I wasn’t picked for the last beta and I’m not even trying to get a portal, but at least the previous system you didn’t have to do something you may not want to just to have a chance to try the beta.

Also, the new system doesn’t increase your chance, RNG is still RNG, what change is the felling of since you are doing something then the chances are higher.

Those who dropped the portal say it’s fair system. Those who didn’t, say it’s unfair. Gee, I wonder why.

I am deeply disappointed that I didnt drop the portal and that my previous beta access is revoked. However I don’t think that beta farm is bad in the very core of the idea. However I think that arena net is not fair in the way how they executed their idea. This should have been made as random possible drop from any type of content e.g. from dungeons, pvp rewards, wvw mobs/players, fractals, open world, etc. This way people could have been rewarded for playing their favourite part of the game. But unfortunately someone get a thought that mindless SW farm for a week is a great thing to advertise HoT. Well… I don’t think so.

What’s more… when I see people dropping 3 portals in 30 minutes while others are grinding their kitten off whole week and get nada, the whole reward distribution table feels a bit smelly to me.

The poster – yeah you only feel good because you got lucky. If you didn’t your post would look much different.

They should minimize RNG period because things should feel earned, not lucked upon.
They’d have grateful players who feel their 60 hours invested actually got them something, instead of raging people who just quit.

Wow.
Wanna be negative people take it elsewhere.
My post wasn’t because i was lucky, I liked this regardless.

Not really being negative, just pointing an opinion, which seems pretty neutral imo.

I’m glad that you get your portal, it is awesome to see happy players posting here, but the new system doesn’t seem better nor worse than the previous one it is just a different source of RNG.

And believe me, you licked the new system because of the portal you got, I see some friends and guild mates nearly miserable and borderline quitting because of the portal that doesn’t drop even after absurd amount of farm.

My point is, I’m not liking it because of the Portal i got, I’m liking it because i can take my chances affecting the RNG, EG: Do nothing = no chance, Do Something = A chance, Do something more = Even more chance.

Rather than waiting for a RNG system to pick for me.

ZidZabre.7256:

My point is, I’m not liking it because of the Portal i got, I’m liking it because i can take my chances affecting the RNG, EG: Do nothing = no chance, Do Something = A chance, Do something more = Even more chance.

Rather than waiting for a RNG system to pick for me.

The chance for someone farming whole week and other one farming an hour is virtually the same if we assume that accounts weren’t flagged before whole event started. What makes me not to believe in fair chance is the situation I’ve posted, when I met people dropping multiple portals in short period of time.

And as I stated before I think this beta hunt should be spread for whole game, not just two farming maps. At this point I get the feeling arena net was testing something.

ZidZabre.7256:

My point is, I’m not liking it because of the Portal i got, I’m liking it because i can take my chances affecting the RNG, EG: Do nothing = no chance, Do Something = A chance, Do something more = Even more chance.

Rather than waiting for a RNG system to pick for me.

That’s the problem.

You see it as “Doing more→ More chances”.

But in actuality, like with any other random thing, the result is what matters.

If there’s just a single one-time source, you try, you may or may not get it. That’s just luck.

But if you may keep trying, the more you try without getting it, the more it feels like you are wasting your time and efforts.

It’s like buying a single lottery ticket vs working for hours with a little chance to get paid for your time and effort.

Which one do you think will feel worse for most people when they get nothing in return?

I honestly think it’s a great system, and I’m one of those people who’ve been farming for days to no avail. I mean, really, I would be more frustrated if I found out someone who bought the game on sale, played it for about an hour and then walked away saying it was BS got a beta key just because Anet tried to be ‘fair’ by pulling from all players ever.
This way, we get a small influence in our drops, only active players have a chance, and it gets some people who haven’t played in a while to come back and stuff the maps full of chatter.

I sat in The Silverwastes, every day, for 7 days, and I didn’t get a portal drop.

I did however, get a Precursor drop, so it was worth it, in a way I wasn’t intending.

I would never, ever put myself through this again though. I used to find The Silverwastes fun, I no longer find it fun. I now hate The Silverwastes with a burning hatred, and I genuinely hope I never, ever have to go back there again. I spent 7 days doing content I hate, for a portal I never got, when I could have been playing content I do enjoy, or preparing my characters for HoT.

Oh yeah, the new system you can actively chose to try to be in beta and not try at all, but the “Do something more = Even more chance” doesn’t exist, it is a binary system, you just have a chance or not.
For example, I’m not trying at all to get a portal, I don’t have time to play the beta properly, so I don’t want to waste the potential of other playing it, so I can choose to not be in the RNG beta, but the people that got the portal with their 1st kill or after many many hours of pure grind faced the same RNG and the more you farm doesn’t rise your chance, just keep you in the possibility to get it.

People make way too big of a deal of getting into betas.

Let me re explain this.
Kill 0 Mobs = No chance.
Kill 1 Mob = 1 Chance.
Kill 500 mobs = 500 chances.

So yes, basic RNG applies. But the more you do, the more dices you roll, and the more you increase your chances.

And as for people getting bummed not getting a portal, yes not a fun thing, but they should know that there is a chance of not getting anything.

And as Argon pointed out, he got a good drop, and i’m pretty sure anyone farming for this has gotten enough Materials to be filling up bank tabs for awhile.

It’s more chances but it’s still the same probability to get the drop.

If the drop rate increased every time you fail to drop the portal, this would be increasing chances. but it isn’t.

That’s what i’m saying though, More chances, as in you chances increased. not the individual drop rate :/

MithranArkanere.8957:

ZidZabre.7256:

My point is, I’m not liking it because of the Portal i got, I’m liking it because i can take my chances affecting the RNG, EG: Do nothing = no chance, Do Something = A chance, Do something more = Even more chance.

Rather than waiting for a RNG system to pick for me.

That’s the problem.

You see it as “Doing more-> More chances”.

But in actuality, like with any other random thing, the result is what matters.

If there’s just a single one-time source, you try, you may or may not get it. That’s just luck.

But if you may keep trying, the more you try without getting it, the more it feels like you are wasting your time and efforts.

It’s like buying a single lottery ticket vs working for hours with a little chance to get paid for your time and effort.

Which one do you think will feel worse for most people when they get nothing in return?

Oh my god that’s the most funny thing i’ve read in all this thread. The OP is right, you get better chances as much as you play, every drop is a lottery.
So all of you didn’t get it, stop whining . This time you didn’t get it because you didn’t tried hard enough. All the players that were playing with me got one.
Next time they do something like this try harder.

ZidZabre.7256:

Let me re explain this.
Kill 0 Mobs = No chance.
Kill 1 Mob = 1 Chance.
Kill 500 mobs = 500 chances.

So yes, basic RNG applies. But the more you do, the more dices you roll, and the more you increase your chances.

Half true.
lets say you have 1% chance for the portal to drop, so:
Kill 0 mobs = 0 time 1 chance in 100
Kill 1 mob = 1 time 1 chance in 100
kill 500 mobs = 500 times 1 chance in 100

Keep farming doesn’t increase your chances, you just keep trying the same chances over and over again.

You get more chances, not better chances.

I see more as better compare to less.

Your chance is not rising with more chances. It’s still the same probability because after every roll it resets. If bad rolls were excluded for next tries, this would be better chance.

Meh, Either way, I liked this, it was fun, bit grindy but nice.

I think it was a bright idea as the most active players get a higher chance to get into beta, instead of giving beta keys to players who will barely show up. The only 2 things I would adjust is:

- Make the portal drop in other content like WvW, fractals, etc (like mentionned already)
- Each VW kills or completing a fractal for instance should give you a 1/100 piece of portal. That way, if like me, you are very unlucky, if you farmed for 60hours, you will get your well deserved portal regardless.

I could agree on having like a special event difficult even like maybe in style of the clocktower or a solo boss fight, where as when you beat the challange youd get the Portal, that would be an great idea.

Edit: Fighting the doppleganger (call back from gw1, and in style of the things we recently been getting).

Can anyone confirm if they removed the portal in this next patch? Or we are still waiting to know?

I tried to get it for about 16h, during exams prep and I kinda have to get it ( I’m doing Italian GW2 Coverage since HoT announcement ).
Today I got it, fearing that the new patch will get away this chance.
It was awful, and I thought so since the announcement, forcing senseless grinding made me hate the Maguuma Wastes even before the HoT release. Anyway, even if I was not forced to get it, I still think it’s not a good way to keep people logging in.
Would it have been nicer if the Portal could be dropped in any part of the game? Yes, definetly.
Is it actually a good method to get Beta Tester? Absolutely not, imo.
I got in the first Beta and reported 5 crash logs + made a video to share for my community, and I was still forced to grind like crazy for it.

If only there was a deal to guarantee coverage and reports to get into the Beta…

Belzebu.3912:

Also, the new system doesn’t increase your chance, RNG is still RNG, what change is the felling of since you are doing something then the chances are higher.

Actually, it does. There’s always an RNG factor, but your chances of getting the protal increase based on how much you farm.

It’s like trying to get 6 with a six-sided die. The chances increase the more dice you roll.

RabbitUp.8294:

Actually, it does. There’s always an RNG factor, but your chances of getting the protal increase based on how much you farm.

That’s a false misconception. The chance of the single try is not related to the other ones, so the sense of having a greater chance by time is not real. Prove of that is that even if unlikely, there are people out there who farmed since the announcement and still didn’t get anything.

RabbitUp.8294:

Belzebu.3912:

Also, the new system doesn’t increase your chance, RNG is still RNG, what change is the felling of since you are doing something then the chances are higher.

Actually, it does. There’s always an RNG factor, but your chances of getting the protal increase based on how much you farm.

It’s like trying to get 6 with a six-sided die. The chances increase the more dice you roll.

No it doesn’t because you do not exclude bad rolls so your chance gets a “reset” for every try.

Lascax.2163:

RabbitUp.8294:

Actually, it does. There’s always an RNG factor, but your chances of getting the protal increase based on how much you farm.

That’s a false misconception. The chance of the single try is not related to the other ones, so the sense of having a greater chance by time is not real. Prove of that is that even if unlikely, there are people out there who farmed since the announcement and still didn’t get anything.

You’re getting two things confused here. Yes, saying “I’ve been farming for ages, so I should be able to get a portal soon” is definitely wrong: if you’ve been farming for 60h without getting anything, you don’t have more chances to get a portal than someone who’s just started.

However, if the probability of a random mob dropping a portal is P, someone who slays 10.000 mobs has in total a probability 10.000P to get a portal, while a player killing a single mob has a probability P. So yeah, your chances of getting a portal don’t INCREASE if you play more, but you’re more likely to get one if you farm like a Corean (no racism intended).

segman.3560:

No it doesn’t because you do not exclude bad rolls so your chance gets a “reset” for every try.

Again, it depends how you look at it. If you’re unsuccessful 9.999 times, you have the exact same probability of getting a portal (P) on your 10.000th mordrem than a guy who’s killing his first. However, PRIOR to your 9.999 failures, you had 10.000 times more chances to get a portal than the casual guy. It just happened that you didn’t get a single successful realization.

You are considering that the pool of chances can be restricted or related. The P probabilty you say is not applicable since the chance is equal with every single try. It’s like saying that throwing a coin has a 1/10000 chance to have it standing vertical on the ground, but in reality throwing that coin 10000 times does not get you closer to get that result.

Sorel.4870:

segman.3560:

No it doesn’t because you do not exclude bad rolls so your chance gets a “reset” for every try.

Again, it depends how you look at it. If you’re unsuccessful 9.999 times, you have the exact same probability of getting a portal (P) on your 10.000th mordrem than a guy who’s killing his first. However, PRIOR to your 9.999 failures, you had 10.000 times more chances to get a portal than the casual guy. It just happened that you didn’t get a single successful realization.

if a chance is 1% with your logic 100 tries equals 100% chance which is not how it works and I hope you know this

Other systems: Randomly give players a beta invite
This system: Give players that actually play the game a beta invite

If you can’t see that this system is an improvement you are blind.
And if you’re frustrated that you farmed for 60 hours that’s your own fault, not the system’s.

segman.3560:

Sorel.4870:

segman.3560:

No it doesn’t because you do not exclude bad rolls so your chance gets a “reset” for every try.

Again, it depends how you look at it. If you’re unsuccessful 9.999 times, you have the exact same probability of getting a portal (P) on your 10.000th mordrem than a guy who’s killing his first. However, PRIOR to your 9.999 failures, you had 10.000 times more chances to get a portal than the casual guy. It just happened that you didn’t get a single successful realization.

if a chance is 1% with your logic 100 tries equals 100% chance which is not how it works and I hope you know this

This statement is correct as well, but probabilities are an interesting thing to take on. The more times you try something the better your chance is of getting something.

We’ll take your 1/100 chance as an example. When you multiply your chances of failure together (the chance that you fail consecutively), you will figure out your chance of getting something. for this example, there is a 99/100 chance that you will fail to get the item in question. What are your chances of failing to get an item 5 times in a row? That would be 99/100 multiplied by itself 5 times:

9509900499/10000000000 which is roughly 95.1% chance that you will fail to get something (4.9% chance of getting it). The chance of getting an item on the third try is still 1/100. Your chances of getting it will improve to a point that most statisticians would call you cursed by fate if you hadn’t recieved it yet.

At 50 tries, your chances of failure 50 times is roughly 61% (thus theres a 39% chance you would have gotten this item). At 100 times you have roughly 37% chance of failing to get it(that would be failing to recieve the item in question 100 times). At 200 times, your chance of failing all 200 tries is 13.3%. At 300 it is 4.9% chance of failing all 300 times (you would be very angry at having failed this many times). At some point, your chances of failing X amount of times will be so low, that even statisticians will assume it can’t happen (i think the number is 1 in 10^50 which is an insanely terrible chance of something).

When would you consider something to be ridiculous? trying 1000 times to get a 1/100 thing (.004% chance of failing 1000 times in a row to get a 1/100 chance item)? This would of coarse be an ideal system that is untampered with.

So what can be drawn from this?

The droprate for the beta portal is very very low (I’d bet 1/10000 or lower). How many creatures do you think you have slain in the past week? Each one would have a chance to drop this thing (in the correct zones of coarse). The probability that you will recieve this thing will improve with each slain creature (not the chance to get it from Creature X, which will be the same, but the chance that you get it from slaying Y amount of creatures). So what is 100 times out of such terrible odds? Bad, not going to calculate it, but under 1%.

I hope that cleared a few things up

EDIT: too much wall of text-added some breaks

ZidZabre.7256:

Let me re explain this.
Kill 0 Mobs = No chance.
Kill 1 Mob = 1 Chance.
Kill 500 mobs = 500 chances.

So yes, basic RNG applies. But the more you do, the more dices you roll, and the more you increase your chances.

And as for people getting bummed not getting a portal, yes not a fun thing, but they should know that there is a chance of not getting anything.

And as Argon pointed out, he got a good drop, and i’m pretty sure anyone farming for this has gotten enough Materials to be filling up bank tabs for awhile.

Ummm only your wrong, in Silverwastes its more like

Kill 1,000 you have 100 chance, giving that 90% of enemies in there don’t drop any loot at all, on top of that take into count the MASSIVE magic find boosts you can get in there, I was up over 600% MF and the best I could get from an enemy was a level 76 rare,

Not getting the beta key doesn’t bother me, people getting 5 or 6 is what bothers me, if this event doesn’t show anet how horrendously broken the RnG actually is, then this game has no chance going forward,

I hope further more that Anet made as much money as possible from this market stunt as when its over the drop off in players is going to be high, at this point im not even sure HoT is worth getting, there are just to many things broken with this game, and Anets reply is heres a $10 item in the gemstore, eventually the HYPE train is going to derail and crash and burn.

As someone who has not participated in the beta drop, I lean toward this being the worst of the currently presented options. The only good thing about it is that most everyone can try to get the drop. This wasn’t possible in the previous beta, where many people weren’t able to successfully sign up for the newsletter. This good point, however, is outweighed by the fact that it forces players to play content they won’t enjoy for a non-guaranteed prize. They can spend a lot of time doing something unpleasant for no reward, which can leave them with a sour experience.

A more ideal solution would have been to make the drops be possible anywhere in any type of game play. The rarity of the drop can be adjusted accordingly. This way, players can play the game how they want while trying to get the reward. So even if they don’t get it, they can at least say they had fun trying.

First when I saw the info about the beta portal drop, I liked the idea cos it’s more active participation than subscribing to email and I can actually increase my chances if I’d decide to grind SW.

What I don’t like about it, why SW/Dry Top only. Some people prefer other parts of the game, some detest SW/Dry Top completely. I personally find these 2 maps really boring after quite short time and I hardly ever stay there longer than 1 hour.

In my opinion, this adds to the frustration some have over the rng grind, they feel forced to play content they don’t enjoy.

Grats TC on your portal. I find it funny how people can complain about litterally every thing.

Here is why the portal drop system is better than random account selection:

→ only active accounts get flaged

That’s the only reason you’d ever need to justify it.

Here is another hint, the portal addition was not added for people to farm and get into the beta. It was added exactly due to the fact that having inactive accounts flaged is not beneficial to the overall beta process. Also I predicted exactly what would happen on day 1 of the portal patch:

→ if the amount of people getting the drop is to low/high, then anet will adjust the drop rate.

But they could have picked from accounts active the last 3 months for beta invites! (or similar)
→ True, they could have, and the whine would be the same because people would complain about others who barely log in getting into the beta. Also anet wants to test they new reward system and get as many people to try it as possible.

But I worked my kitten off to get in and got unlucky!
→ Sorry to hear, but the idea behind this system was to allow access to as many active accounts as possible/needed while trying to keep the amount of inactive accounts getting an invite as low as possible.

But they said we could farm for the beta access!
→ True, and maybe the marketing spin should have been amended with the reasoning of why this system was implemented in the first palce.

Everyone should be happy about this system (though it has its flaws) since the end result → as much active beta testing as possible, is what matters.

ZidZabre.7256:

Let me re explain this.
Kill 0 Mobs = No chance.
Kill 1 Mob = 1 Chance.
Kill 500 mobs = 500 chances.

So yes, basic RNG applies. But the more you do, the more dices you roll, and the more you increase your chances.

Yes, but they are still really small. Just like most people do not buy hundreds of lottery tickets. Even if in theory it increases their chances, in practice it only increases the number of losses.
In this case farming for 6 days straight, several hours a day only increases your chances of being burned out and really angry after you still won’t get the drop. And you most likely won’t.

In that situation, i prefer the email RNG – my chances are not visibly smaller, but if i fail, i won’t feel like i did a lot of work for no reward.

Jayden Ennok.3687:

First when I saw the info about the beta portal drop, I liked the idea cos it’s more active participation than subscribing to email and I can actually increase my chances if I’d decide to grind SW.

What I don’t like about it, why SW/Dry Top only. Some people prefer other parts of the game, some detest SW/Dry Top completely. I personally find these 2 maps really boring after quite short time and I hardly ever stay there longer than 1 hour.

In my opinion, this adds to the frustration some have over the rng grind, they feel forced to play content they don’t enjoy.

Also adding the portal as a rare reward from world boss chests couldda been an interesting concept. It’s still open world, which is the thing, they want to test in their next beta. It would give players another way to get into the beta without grinding silverwastes(and instead running world boss trains)

But the problem at hand here is: People, who don’t like running open world content and run dungeons, pvp or wvw to no end complain about having to run open world PvE to participate in an open world pve only beta?
Makes no sense. Yes, they should have added the reward to other forms of open world pve, but I’m actually strictly against what some other players suggested, like adding the reward to wvw, dungeons or pvp.
It’s obvious, Arena.net wants to test large scale pve events in the upcoming beta. All the people, who complain about “being forced” to run silverwastes to participate in the beta would then complain about the beta “forcing” them into running large scale events?
At some point, it becomes ridiculous.

Gimli.9461:

The poster – yeah you only feel good because you got lucky. If you didn’t your post would look much different.

They should minimize RNG period because things should feel earned, not lucked upon.
They’d have grateful players who feel their 60 hours invested actually got them something, instead of raging people who just quit.

Being earned is not a fair system. Someone like myself that can play for as long as I like would have a huge advantage over someone that works or has other commitments that limit their game time.

RNG is the only fair system because it doesn’t favour anyone.

I spent over 60 hours getting one and I really got bored at times, especially where I was just killing every mob I could see in between events and in the evenings as the evening tended to have less people doing the main events. I can understand peoples disappointment especially those that have farmed for many hours but that doesn’t make it an unfair system. People knew the risks before they started farming for the portals although they didn’t know what the drop rates would be like. So RNG the problem or the low drop rates?

My guess is they chose the areas because they wanted to have players that had level 80s so that at least they knew the game fairly well, or at least the parts they play. Also it’s a good way to maybe tempt people into getting the living story 2 through the luminescent armour achievements as you can get most of the parts through doing the events. I got all the parts except 1 armour part that can be gotten without LS2.

I’d say it was fairly enjoyable when there were enough doing the events, but it did have a lot of grinding as you search for the thing. When I got mine it felt like a bit of an anti-climax because for all the thousands of mobs I killed I got it from a chest for helping to repair a wall.

But what ever system they chose there will always be disappointed people because there’s a limit on how many can be beta testers.

segman.3560:

No it doesn’t because you do not exclude bad rolls so your chance gets a “reset” for every try.

Lascax.2163:

That’s a false misconception. The chance of the single try is not related to the other ones, so the sense of having a greater chance by time is not real. Prove of that is that even if unlikely, there are people out there who farmed since the announcement and still didn’t get anything.

That’s not how it works. What you are describing is the gambler’s fallacy, that with each subsequent roll, the chance of the following roll giving the desired result increases, which is false. Each roll is independent and the chance of getting a 6 is 1/6. That doesn’t change.

However, if you roll 2 dice, the chance of getting 6 at least one time after rolling 2 dice is not 1/6, but 1/3 since there are 12 combinations that contain at least one 6, and 36 possible outcomes.

RabbitUp.8294:

segman.3560:

No it doesn’t because you do not exclude bad rolls so your chance gets a “reset” for every try.

Lascax.2163:

That’s a false misconception. The chance of the single try is not related to the other ones, so the sense of having a greater chance by time is not real. Prove of that is that even if unlikely, there are people out there who farmed since the announcement and still didn’t get anything.

That’s not how it works. What you are describing is the gambler’s fallacy, that with each subsequent roll, the chance of the following roll giving the desired result increases, which is false. Each roll is independent and the chance of getting a 6 is 1/6. That doesn’t change.

However, if you roll 2 dice, the chance of getting 6 at least one time after rolling 2 dice is not 1/6, but 1/3 since there are 12 combinations that contain at least one 6, and 36 possible outcomes.

However, the more times you roll the dice the more chance you have of getting it, even if it is the same odds for each roll of the dice. Which is where the gamblers fallacy as you call it comes from.

RabbitUp.8294:

segman.3560:

No it doesn’t because you do not exclude bad rolls so your chance gets a “reset” for every try.

Lascax.2163:

That’s a false misconception. The chance of the single try is not related to the other ones, so the sense of having a greater chance by time is not real. Prove of that is that even if unlikely, there are people out there who farmed since the announcement and still didn’t get anything.

That’s not how it works. What you are describing is the gambler’s fallacy, that with each subsequent roll, the chance of the following roll giving the desired result increases, which is false. Each roll is independent and the chance of getting a 6 is 1/6. That doesn’t change.

However, if you roll 2 dice, the chance of getting 6 at least one time after rolling 2 dice is not 1/6, but 1/3 since there are 12 combinations that contain at least one 6, and 36 possible outcomes.

Pretty sure, there aren’t 12 combinations.

D1:({6},{1,2,3,4,5,6})={(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}
D2:({1,2,3,4,5,6},{6})={(1,6),(2,6),(3,6),(4,6),(5,6),(6,6)}
D1 ? D2 = {(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(1,6),(2,6),(3,6),(4,6),(5,6),(6,6)}
|D1 ? D2|=11

Makes 11 in my book.

And if you want to talk about probability: Having grinded for 50 hours won’t increase your chance to get the drop within the next hour.
But there’s a tremendous difference between grinding for 50 hours and grinding for a single hour only. The one grinding for 50 hours is far more likely to get the drop than the one grinding for an hour, just the same as the one with 50 lots has a higher chance of winning than the one with a single lot only.
The chance of being drawn is the same for each individual lot, but having more increases the chances of winning.

naphack.9346:

Pretty sure, there aren’t 12 combinations.

D1:({6},{1,2,3,4,5,6})={(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}
D2:({1,2,3,4,5,6},{6})={(1,6),(2,6),(3,6),(4,6),(5,6),(6,6)}
D1 ? D2 = {(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(1,6),(2,6),(3,6),(4,6),(5,6),(6,6)}
|D1 ? D2|=11

Makes 11 in my book.

And if you want to talk about probability: Having grinded for 50 hours won’t increase your chance to get the drop within the next hour.
But there’s a tremendous difference between grinding for 50 hours and grinding for a single hour only. The one grinding for 50 hours is far more likely to get the drop than the one grinding for an hour, just the same as the one with 50 lots has a higher chance of winning than the one with a single lot only.
The chance of being drawn is the same for each individual lot, but having more increases the chances of winning.

You are absolutely right. My sleep-deprived mind counted (6,6) twice.

And your example demonstrates how the gambler’s fallacy applies to portal farming. The probability of getting the portal per hour played/per chest opened/per monster slain doesn’t increase the more you play, but when you examine the total number of hours/chests/monsters you go through in your play session, the numbers are different.

Hidori.3472:

nope. I farmed 7 days straight and didn’t get it. so what?
I even made a thread which is positive.

From the few players I know in the same situation you are the exception, but congratulations, I’m glad that you feel good , I really am.

Hidori.3472:

Belzebu.3912:

… but at least the previous system you didn’t have to do something you may not want to just to have a chance to try the beta.

so why should someone like you get the access, who lacks of any interest whatsoever for this game and especially the expansion? you are not interested in a beta and in this game enough to qualify for it. the given method made that sure.

That is the point, someone like me shouldn’t have access since I don’t want to have access and that is the only good part of the new system, but it is a choice I made since I won’t have time to properly test the beta, the few hours I have to play I want to play the in the live servers, I have A LOT interest for GW2, just not in the beta.

naphack.9346:

Jayden Ennok.3687:

First when I saw the info about the beta portal drop, I liked the idea cos it’s more active participation than subscribing to email and I can actually increase my chances if I’d decide to grind SW.

What I don’t like about it, why SW/Dry Top only. Some people prefer other parts of the game, some detest SW/Dry Top completely. I personally find these 2 maps really boring after quite short time and I hardly ever stay there longer than 1 hour.

In my opinion, this adds to the frustration some have over the rng grind, they feel forced to play content they don’t enjoy.

Also adding the portal as a rare reward from world boss chests couldda been an interesting concept. It’s still open world, which is the thing, they want to test in their next beta. It would give players another way to get into the beta without grinding silverwastes(and instead running world boss trains)

But the problem at hand here is: People, who don’t like running open world content and run dungeons, pvp or wvw to no end complain about having to run open world PvE to participate in an open world pve only beta?
Makes no sense. Yes, they should have added the reward to other forms of open world pve, but I’m actually strictly against what some other players suggested, like adding the reward to wvw, dungeons or pvp.
It’s obvious, Arena.net wants to test large scale pve events in the upcoming beta. All the people, who complain about “being forced” to run silverwastes to participate in the beta would then complain about the beta “forcing” them into running large scale events?
At some point, it becomes ridiculous.

Vast majority of players play more than 1 gamemode, even if they prefer one, they do other content from time to time.

Stronghold beta was open to everyone, pvp much or not at all? Didn’t matter, all could try the map and I am sure that few of those that never pvp, tried stronghold just cos it’s the “beta stuff”.

There are tons of pvper/wvwers and dungeon runners who even if they don’t do open pve much, would enjoy trying something new just as those who spend all the time in open world.

In the interest of full disclosure: I participated in the first beta stress test, and after about 12 hours total farming in SW, I did get my beta portal drop.

My thoughts on the subject:
A. what I liked about using in game content to gain access to the closed beta: Rewarding ACTIVE players with the opportunity to roll for a beta key. With the previous “sign up for the newsletter and we’ll pick some names out of a hat” system, players who rarely played had the same chance as those of us who play consistently (myself included with nearly 5k hours not including my time in the original GW2 BETA). I understand Anet wants to encourage inactive players to get excited about some new content, they do run a business , but hardcore players should have the first option ahead of very casual players.
B. what I disliked about using in game content to gain access to the closed beta:
The grind that was forced upon all players which has led to serious frustration and discouragement by those same loyal, hardcore players. I have several guildmates who have spend endless hours farming in both DT and SW and they still haven’t rolled their beta keys. I WANT these people to get their keys and if I COULD, I would give them my key. The sign up for newsletter pull a rabbit out of your hat system at least avoided the grind frustration and what we not-so-affectionately call being “Silverwasted” .

In the end, there really is no simple way to grant beta testing access to everyone – Would anyone like to offer up some constructive alternative SOLUTIONS? Having a kitten doesn’t solve anything, even though it may make you feel better <3

annieoakley.8165:

In the end, there really is no simple way to grant beta testing access to everyone – Would anyone like to offer up some constructive alternative SOLUTIONS?

Yes. Make the portal token more easily acquirable (and not only in SW/DT, also in other maps and gamemodes). Set the difficulty at the level that would mean you are active, but would not require massive grind. Then make the final choice random out of all people that got the portal. So, basically, the first stress test selection method, but with a step that filters out inactives.